Will Rogers
Mississippi St vs. Georgia
Pick: Georgia -5.5
The set-up: Two undefeated SEC schools meet Saturday "between the hedges" at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga. The Miss. State Bulldogs are 3-0 and entered the AP's top-25 poll at No. 17 (first ranking since November of 2015), after their 37-7 "take-down" of then-No. 12 LSU last Saturday. The Georgia Bulldogs are also 3-0 and ranked No. 11, slightly up from the school's No. 15 ranking in the preseason. Georgia's best win of 2017 so far, was its 20-19 win at then-No. 24 Notre Dame in South Bend on Sep. 9. Georgia has won 10 of its last 11 meetings with Mississippi State and leads the all-time series 17-6.
Mississippi State: Dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald was named the SEC's Offensive Player of the Week after finishing with 260 yards of total offense against LSU, while accounting for four TDs (two passing and two rushing). He's completing 61.4% on the season with seven TDs and only one INT plus is the team's second-leading rusher with 240 yards (7.7 YPC) and five TDs. RB Aeris Williams leads the way with 336 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC. The Bulldogs average 297.7 YPG on the ground (11th) and are 9th in scoring at 47.7 PPG. Considering the defense has allowed just 9.3 PPG (6th) on 206.0 YPG (3rd), it's not hard to see why MSU is 3-0.
Georgia: Freshman QB Jake Fromm has passed for five TDs in three games since taking over for the injured Jacob Eason early in the season opener. “We have to get him to make good decisions,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart told reporters Tuesday in reference to Fromm. “As long as he does that, we can play winning football.” RB Sony Michel (160 yards on 5.5 YPC) is expected back after sitting out Samford with a minor injury and joins Nick Chubb (290 yards on 6.6 YPC) to give Georgia a lethal one-two RB punch. Georgia's D has played very well, allowing 14.3 PPG (21st) on 266.0 YPG (16th). The fact that the team's rush D allows just 71.0 YPG (5th) could be a huge factor against MSU's powerful rushing attack.
The pick: Mississippi State has scored 35 or more points in eight of its last 10 games (dating back to last year) but this will be the Bulldogs' first road test of 2017. "It’s our first SEC road game, which adds different challenges to the picture,” head coach Dan Mullen told reporters regarding the first meeting between the schools since 2011. Back-to-back games against the nation's 12th-ranked team (LSU last Saturday) and now its 11th-ranked team (Georgia right here), is a pretty big 'hill to climb.' I've noted already that Georgia has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two schools and I'll also add that Georgia has fared well at home vs. SEC-West foes here at home, going 10-3 its last 13 contests. I'm laying the points with Georgia.
Power Sports
San Diego St vs. Air Force
Pick: Air Force +3.5
The AFA was a nice winner for me last Saturday afternoon as they never trailed by more than the spread (23.5 points), covering easily at "The Big House." While ultimately falling short has to be a little disappointing (lost 29-13), it's not like anyone (myself included) gave them much of a shot at beating Michigan outright. It's a different story this week, however, as they return to Colorado Springs for the Mt West opener against division favorite San Diego State. Off B2B upsets, the Aztecs are riding high right now, but this time around I think they are the ones ripe to be upset.
Maybe San Diego State should be in the Pac 12 and not the Mountain West? In the last two weeks, they've beaten Arizona State and then Stanford, the latter as eight-point home dogs. The Aztecs are now 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Pac 12 teams the L2 seasons. However, Saturday night's upset comes w/ a slight caveat in that there was a darkness delay that seemed to adversly affect the road team. SDSU threw the GW TD pass in the final minute, after the delay, and it should also be noted a +3 turnover margin really helped them in pulling the upset. As impressive as the win and the Aztecs defense was, I envision they'll struggle to contain the AFA rushing attack here, which averages over 320 YPG (168 vs. Michigan).
SDSU has certainly had Air Force's number, beating them six straigh times including a win in the '15 MWC Championship Game. But half of those wins have come by a field goal or less. They did not meet last season. As I discussed in LW's analysis, the Flyboys don't have a ton of returning starters (only 1 on defense!), but their a system-based team, so that doesn't matter as much. Last week's loss actually snapped a seven-game win streak for Troy Calhoun's team, but they are still 7-2 ATS their last nine times being an underdog. They're also 12-1 SU L13 home games, 9-4 ATS.
Buster Sports
Louisiana Tech at South Carolina
Play: Louisiana Tech +8
Last week we went against South Carolina with Kentucky getting the OR victory. Today we will fade the Gamecocks one more time. Not only did South Carolina lose their game last week but they also lost a crucial part of their offense when WR Deebo Samuel was lost for the season with a broken leg. South Carolina won their first two games of the year but in each of those games, they won with turnovers. They were also out yarded in both of those victories. Last week Louisiana Tech won a huge conference game beating Western Kentucky. They will come to Columbia with tons of momentum. The Bulldogs are one of the best teams in C-USA and their D is ranked 66th in the country. We believe that with the loss of Samuel for the South Carolina offense, they will struggle against the Louisiana Tech D as they did last week against Kentucky. At the time of this writing, we are getting 8 points and we will be happy to take them. Backing our selection is the fact that Louisiana Tech are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the SEC and the fact that the Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
Otto Sports
UNLV at Ohio St
Play: Over 64.5
Eliminate for a second Ohio State's dismal offensive showing vs. Oklahoma in which the Buckeyes posted only 350 total yards and 16 points. Instead, turn your attention to Week 1 in which the Buckeyes rolled up nearly 600 yards and 49 points against Indiana. And last week as well as OSU hung 586 yards on only 69 plays in its win over Army. Bettors should feel confident moving forward that Ohio State's offense is only going to get better as first-year OC Kevin Wilson and Urban Meyer adjust to one another. In the meantime, this is still a top-tier offense, especially when facing lower-tier competition which is exactly what they'll see this weekend in UNLV.
The Rebels were not an especially strong defensive team a season ago even though the schedule came up very light in terms of opposing offenses. UNLV faced only three teams in the top 50 in total offense and in those three games it allowed 50 ppg. This season's numbers look tolerable (5.31 ypp allowed) but once again, the competition (Howard and Idaho) was very weak.
Offensively, UNLV head coach Tony Sanchez stated that while run-first, clock churning drives are ideal, they aren't likely to occur against the Buckeyes’ stout stop unit. Meaning, in order for UNLV to put points on the board, they'll need to do so via the big play.
“We know we’ve been a pretty successful run football team, and that’s who we are and that’s kind of how we’ve built ourselves,” Sanchez said, “but we’ve got a talented receiving corps, and if you’re going to have an opportunity in a game like this, you’re going to have to stretch the field. You’re not just going to be able to sit there, run the ball 50 times right at a front like that. They’re pretty stout up there.”
Easier said than done against a very formidable defense on the road but UNLV's offense has a lot of potential. Quarterback Armani Rogers gives the offense a run-pass dynamic it didn't have with last year's trio of sub-par signal callers. And there are weapons in both the backfield and at wide receiver. Despite a litany of key injuries and zero production from the QB position, UNLV still averaged a respectable 5.86 ypp last year in MWC play. And while this year's competition has been ultra-weak, it's a positive sign the Rebels averaged over 8 yards per play in both games. Ohio State’s got the plenty of potential to hang 50+ in this one which means a score or two from a very offensively improved underdog has this one going over the total.
Wunderdog
Central Florida @ Maryland
Pick: Under 60
Central Florida has only played one game because of storms, with a pair of cancellations the last two weeks. They haven't played a game since August. And the effects of Hurricane Irma has limited their ability to practice after the Orlando area recovered from the storm. Central Florida is 21-5-1 UNDER the total in September, plus 11-2 UNDER after accumulating 450+ total yards in their previous game. Maryland was also off last week after opening with a pair of non-conference victories. Maryland has a strong backfield, anchored by RB Ty Johnson, and will chew up yards and the clock. The Terrapins have a freshman quarterback in Kasim Hill, who can also run. Maryland is 21-8-1 UNDER after scoring 40+ points in their previous game, plus 15-7-1 UNDER following a victory of more than 20 points. These teams played a 30-24 game last season but it took double-overtime and this total is too high.
Xpert Picks
New Mexico State -18
UTEP has lost 9 of the last 10 games against the spread when playing in the month of September and they have lost 7 of the last 9 non-conference games against the spread. UTEP has lost 5 of the last 6 games against the spread after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in their last game and they are allowing an average of 50 points a game on defense this season.
Toledo +13.5
Toledo has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 road games and they have covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games when playing in the month of September. Toledo has covered the spread in 8 of the last 11 non-conference games and they have covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games coming off a home win in their last game.
Air Force +3.5
Air Force has covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 games when playing as an underdog and they have covered the spread in 9 of the last 13 home games. Air Force has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games when playing in the month of September and they are only allowing an average of 14 points a game on defense this season.
Oklahoma State -13.5
Oklahoma State has covered the spread in 30 of the last 44 games when the total posted is between 63.5 and 70 points and they have covered the spread in 85 of the last 140 games when playing as a favorite.
Winning Angle
UNLV +40
UNLV has covered the spread in 4 consecutive games when playing as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points and they have covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games coming off a win by 28 points or more in their last game. UNLV has covered the spread in 12 of the last 16 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in their last game and they have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game.
New Mexico +8
New Mexico has covered the spread in 48 of the last 85 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have covered the spread in 52 of the last 88 games after having won two of the last three games. New Mexico has covered the spread in 59 of the last 104 games when playing as a road underdog and they have covered the spread in 96 of the last 180 games coming off a conference game.
Appalachian State +4.5
Wake Forest has lost 84 of the last 138 games coming off a win against the spread in their last game and they have lost 41 of the last 64 games after allowing 14 points or less in their last game. Wake Forest has lost 89 of the last 135 road games and they have lost 87 of the last 142 games coming off a game where they committed one or less turnovers.
Vanderbilt +19.5
Vanderbilt has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when playing as a home underdog and they have covered the spread in 48 of the last 83 games when playing in the month of September. Vanderbilt has covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games coming off a non-conference game and they are only allowing an average of 4 points a game on defense this season.
Toledo +13.5
Toledo has won 9 of the last 11 road games and they have won 10 of the last 12 non-conference games. Toledo has won 9 consecutive games when playing in the 1st month of the season and they are averaging 46 points a game on offense this season.
Purdue +10
Michigan has lost 47 of the last 77 games against the spread when playing as a road favorite and they have lost 74 of the last 131 games against the spread coming off a home win in their last game. Michigan has lost 73 of the last 136 games against the spread coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers and they have lost 43 of the last 76 games against the spread after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games.
Florida Atlantic +3
Buffalo has lost 75 of the last 103 games coming off a loss against the spread in their last game and they have lost 79 of the last 110 games coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers. Buffalo has lost 92 of the last 125 games when playing in the 1st half of the season and they have lost 65 of the last 106 home games.
Air Force +3.5
Air Force has won 58 of the last 89 games when playing in the 1st month of the season and they have won 86 of the last 143 games coming off a win against the spread in their last game. Air Force has won 105 of the last 154 home games and they are averaging 37 points a game on offense this season.
Kentucky +2.5
Kentucky has won 6 of the last 7 games coming off two or more UNDER the totals and they have won 8 of the last 11 games when playing in the month of September. Kentucky has won 3 of the last 4 games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they are only allowing an average of 15 points a game on defense this season.
The Sports Capper
Louisiana Tech +8.5
South Carolina has lost 12 of the last 17 games against the spread coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have lost 5 of the last 6 games against the spread after covering the spread in two of the last three games. South Carolina has lost 4 consecutive games against the spread coming off a conference loss in their last game and they are allowing an average of 426 yards a game on defense this season.
Oklahoma State -13.5
TCU has lost 8 of the last 11 games against the spread when playing in the 1st month of the season and they have lost 9 of the last 11 games against the spread after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their last game. TCU has lost 16 of the last 23 games against the spread when playing on a Saturday and they have lost 28 of the last 41 games against the spread coming off two or more conference games.
Florida Atlantic +3
Buffalo has lost 11 of the last 15 games against the spread when playing as a home favorite of seven points or less and they have lost 38 of the last 66 non-conference games against the spread. Buffalo has lost 37 of the last 66 games against the spread after having lost two of the last three games and they have lost 35 of the last 65 games against the spread when playing in the 1st month of the season.
Rob Veno
Toledo vs. Miami
Play:Miami -13½
There’s an obvious bit of unknown where Miami is concerned as they return to the field for the first time in three weeks. Making the Hurricanes even more of a mystery is that their only game this season was played against lower echelon FCS entrant Bethune-Cookman. The one element that likely can be factored into the Miami piece of this handicap is their eagerness to return to the playing field which should translate into 60 minutes of effort and energy. The two weeks off has allowed Miami to probably regain the services of leading WR Ahmmon Richards (hamstring) who did not play in their opener and starting DT Kendrick Norton. They may be cautious with Richards but having him on the field gives the ‘Canes a way to possibly ease the potential of seeing an eight man box against their rushing attack.
Toledo was magnificent offensively last week as they erased a 14 point halftime deficit en-route to their 54-51 victory over Tulsa. The Rockets had five touchdowns in that game of 49 yards or more and QB Logan Woodside threw six TD passes. Defensively however, they were shredded for 423 rushing yards and 6.2 per carry which doesn’t bode well for them versus Miami whose strength is their running game. Toledo has all the weapons to cause problems for the Miami defense which allowed four dives of 10+ plays to Bethune-Cookman but it’s questionable whether they can slow down the ‘Canes ground attack led RB Mark Walton.
This could end up being a defensive nightmare for Toledo which just got pounded with 66 rushing attempts by Tulsa and now face another physical run oriented offense. Selling out against the run may not even be enough but if it is, one-one matchups in the passing game will be open for QB Malik Rosier to exploit. Conversely, Miami DC Manny Diaz isn’t as concerned with his units’ athletic ability as he is the amount of preparation it takes to handle Toledo’s playbook full of motions and formations. The Hurricanes defense is fully focused on rebounding from their less than stellar Week 1 performance and they bring a front seven like nothing Tulsa has seen thus far this season. The 88 degree weather and high 90’s humidity may play a role as well if the home team can grind down the Golden Hurricane defense. Line is priced fairly so have to take a small stance with the home favorite which can be expected to enter this game like a powder keg ready to explode.
Drew Martin
Florida vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky +1½
Heading into the season, Kentucky talked all about playing at a fast tempo and putting up big points on a weekly basis. Three games into the season and the Wildcats have failed miserably at that claim and are ironically a better team for it. Fifth-year head coach Mark Stoops finally got the message that in order to compete in the SEC, you have to value the football, run the football, and play solid defense. Through three games, UK is +4 in turnover margin, owns a 121-70 run/pass ratio, and is allowing only 346.7 ypg. The competition comes up a little light (Southern Miss, Eastern Kentucky and South Carolina), particularly on the offensive end, but Saturday's opponent is another foe where Kentucky's newly-adopted strategy could thrive.
For seven of the eight quarters it has played, Florida's offense has been nothing short of abysmal. The Gators managed 11 rushing yards vs. Michigan and if you eliminate their Hail Mary toss at the end of last week's win over Tennessee, they would have been outgained by 125 yards to the Vols. And Florida's defense hasn't looked nearly as stout as last year's unit that surrendered only 4.66 yards per play. The Wolverines went for 200+ on the ground and through the air and Tennessee averaged over 6 yards per play.
For casual bettors, Kentucky's 30-game losing streak to Florida is going to make this a "Gators or pass" game. But in those 30 games, how many times could you confidently say Kentucky had the ability to win the line of scrimmage battle? I feel they'll do so in Saturday's matchup which is why I'm on the short home underdog.
Ian Cameron
Texas Tech at Houston
Play: Over 71
Texas Tech’s offense once again looks fully capable of scoring points in bunches despite losing quarterback and 1st round draft pick Patrick Mahomes. Texas Tech’s new starter, Nic Shimonek, is the latest in a long line of plug-and-play Air Raid system signal callers. Shimonek has absolutely flawless numbers through two games; 78% completions, 927 yards passing and a perfect 9-0 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s got a slew of skill position talent to work with; WR Keke Coutee has 17 catches for 285 yards and three scores while fellow receivers Dylan Cantrell and Cameron Batson each have 12 receptions. And running backs Desmon Nisby and Justin Stockton have combined for 196 yards and 2 TDs. I expect Tech to score its share of points but so should Houston against a Texas Tech defense that still refuses to put any stock into stopping the opposition. Case in point, last week, up 42-24 in the third quarter, the Red Raiders allowed Arizona State to storm back and tie the game late. Tech punched in a score with less than two minutes remaining and was perhap lucky to come away with the win and pointspread cover.
Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen has started off strong for Houston with 534 passing yards and an 86% completion rate through two games. Houston has a trio of senior receivers with Linell Bonner, Steven Dunbar and John Leday who all have double-digit receptions so far on the campaign. It will be a massive challenge for a Texas Tech secondary giving up over 7 yards per pass and 273 passing yards per game. Last week’s game between Texas Tech and Arizona State was lined at 74 and it soared over with 97 points scored. This total is three points lower due in large part to Houston’s ability to play solid defense but it still won’t stop either team from marching up and down the field. Play it over.
Oskeim Sports
Penn State at Iowa
Play: Iowa +13
Both teams take the field with identical 3-0 records, although I have been more impressed with Iowa’s resume, which includes a double-digit win over Wyoming and a road victory at Iowa State. The Hawkeyes are averaging 33.0 points and 398 total yards per game at 5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack to they are just slightly above average offensively.
However, Iowa possesses an outstanding defense that has been 0.8 yards per play better than average (5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yards per play), especially at home where the Hawkeyes have yielded just 8.5 points and 269 total yards per game at 4.6 yards per play and 31.6 yards per point. Overall, I rate Iowa 0.9 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage in 2017.
Penn State has amassed eye-opening statistics by beating up on Akron (52-0) and Georgia State (56-0), while actually being outgained in its 33-14 win over Pittsburgh.
The Nittany Lions’ aerial attack has been mediocre despite averaging 282 passing yards at 9.6 yards per pass attempt with a 64.8% completion rate. Specifically, the 9.6 yards per pass play has come against three teams that would combine to allow 9.6 yards per play to an average quarterback.
Meanwhile, Iowa’s defensive backfield has been spectacular this season, allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt to a group of quarterbacks who would average 7.5 yards per pass play against a mediocre secondary). Rating 1.3 yards per pass play better than average gives the Hawkeyes a significant advantage over Penn State’s grossly overrated passing attack.
Iowa will have a difficult time moving the chains against an elite Penn State defense that is 1.0 yards per play better than average. However, the Hawkeyes play at an excruciatingly slow pace that allows them to dominate time of possession (averaging 35:35 per game this season), thereby making them solid investments when getting points.
From a technical standpoint, Iowa is 9-3 ATS with conference revenge (lost 41-14 last year), 5-1 ATS as a home underdog of 4+ points and 8-2 ATS in Game Four of the season.
Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is a profitable 9-2 ATS as a conference home underdog of more than seven points, including 7-1 ATS with revenge and 4-0 ATS at home with triple-revenge. Ferentz is also an incredible 19-5-1 ATS when playing with revenge with the Hawkeyes, including 10-0-1 ATS over the last eleven circumstances.
Finally, Iowa is 22-8 ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown, including 17-3 ATS versus an opponent off a straight-up win (defeated Michigan as a 21.5-point underdog last season). Grab the points and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports
New Mexico +10.5
Tulsa should not be laying double-digits to anyone, especially to a New Mexico squad that possesses an efficient offense. I am certainly aware of the fact that the Lobos could be down to their third-string quarterback for this game after starter Lamar Jordan and backup Tevaka Tuioti were both knocked out in last week’s game against Boise State.
Third-string quarterback Coltin Gerhart is a graduate transfer from Arizona State and looked decent in relief on the blue carpet. New Mexico’s coaching staff also has two extra days to get Gerhart prepared to face one of the worst defenses in the country.
Tulsa is allowing 51.7 points and 638 yards per game at 9.4 yards per play and 12.4 yards per point to teams that would combine to average just 7.3 yards per play. The Golden Hurricane rate 2.3 yards per rush play and 1.9 yards per pass play worse than average this season. Tulsa’s performance in Week Two epitomizes how bad its defense is: 42 points and 598 total yards at 8.1 yards per play yielded to Louisiana-Lafayette! That is alarming.
New Mexico’s methodical offense is averaging 26.7 points and 396 total yards at 5.9 yards per play, which is certainly good enough to consistently move the chains against Tulsa’s stop unit.
New Mexico’s ground attack has been 0.4 yards per attempt better than average in 2017 (4.9 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow 4.5 yards per rush play), which is significant in that the Lobos will be able to control the clock and keep Tulsa’s offense off the field (Tulsa is averaging 92 plays per game).
I went back the past two seasons to see how the Golden Hurricane have performed against other option attacks. Needless to say, Tulsa’s coaching staff has failed in every respect, giving up an average of 43 points and 7.7 yards per play to Navy the last two years.
More bad news for Tulsa - star defensive end Jesse Brubaker, a senior who had 13.5 tackles for a loss last season, is suspended for the first half of this game due to a targeting penalty he received in last week’s contest.
While Tulsa is averaging 47.0 points per game this season, its offense is only 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play to a mediocre attack). Meanwhile, the Lobos’ stop unit rates 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yards per play), thereby effectively neutralizing Tulsa’s overrated attack.
From a technical standpoint, New Mexico is 12-4 ATS in its last sixteen games following a loss, which indicates that head coach Bob Davie does an excellent job in getting his team to bounce back from defeat.
In contrast, the Golden Hurricane are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games versus .499 or worse opposition and 3-8-1 ATS in their last eleven games overall versus teams with a losing record (15-34 ATS since 1992).
With New Mexico standing at 36-17 ATS versus teams averaging 31+ points per game, 15-5 ATS versus teams averaging 37+ points per game and 21-9 ATS against opposing offenses that average more than 5.89 yards per play.
Buster Sports
Louisiana Tech at South Carolina
Play: Louisiana Tech +8
Last week we went against South Carolina with Kentucky getting the OR victory. Today we will fade the Gamecocks one more time. Not only did South Carolina lose their game last week but they also lost a crucial part of their offense when WR Deebo Samuel was lost for the season with a broken leg. South Carolina won their first two games of the year but in each of those games, they won with turnovers. They were also out yarded in both of those victories. Last week Louisiana Tech won a huge conference game beating Western Kentucky. They will come to Columbia with tons of momentum. The Bulldogs are one of the best teams in C-USA and their D is ranked 66th in the country. We believe that with the loss of Samuel for the South Carolina offense, they will struggle against the Louisiana Tech D as they did last week against Kentucky. At the time of this writing, we are getting 8 points and we will be happy to take them. Backing our selection is the fact that Louisiana Tech are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the SEC and the fact that the Bulldogs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. S
The Prez
Auburn at Missouri
Play: Auburn -18
Two SEC clubs meet up on Saturday night in Columbia, Missouri when the host Tigers welcome the Auburn Tigers. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Faurot Field. The defensive minded Auburn crew have an opportunity to get their offensive untracked against a Missouri defense that has allowed over 35 points per game across their first three contests.
Auburn took an early 6-0 led against No #2 ranked Clemson two Saturday's ago eventually falling by a 14-6 margin. The Tigers followed that up with a 24-10 win against Mercer last Saturday. Since the Tiger season opener, a 41-7 victory over Georgia Southern the offense has been scuffling. That figures to change this weekend when the Auburn "O" squares off against the SEC's most generous defense, Missouri, that is allowing 442.7 yards per game.
Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham led the offense to 510 total yards in the victory over the Bears a week ago but five turnovers kept the Tigers from registering but three touchdowns. Head coach Gus Malzahn is feeling some head due to his offense not performing to expectations but save the five TO's Stidham and the unit was efficient completing 32 of 37 pass attempts for 364 yards.
There isn't anything positive to speak of when referencing the Tigers of Missouri. The defense has allowed nearly twice as much yardage as the offensive has manufactured this season and is coming off a loss to the Purdue Boilermakers that saw the offense record a mere 203 total yards and combine to score just 16 points in the past two games,
Mizzou head coach Barry Odom fired defensive coordinator following the loss to South Carolina but it is unlikely to motivate or ignite the defensive unit. In truth, it is Odom that has been calling the defensive plays since last season, making Cross' departure nothing more than a smoke screen for Odom's issues with the athletic department.
The Auburn Tigers out-man and out-gun the Missouri Tigers and Saturday's final score won't be close.