Nelly
Navy -11.5 over Cincinnati
The Bearcats have shown some potential on defense and sitting at 2-1 despite the struggling offense makes for a promising start to the Luke Fickell era in Cincinnati. Last week’s win was a comeback for the ages to retain the Victory Bell and now facing a third straight road game could make for a challenging emotional spot. Navy and Cincinnati haven’t yet met as AAC foes and the Midshipmen have had two weeks to prepare for this game following a narrow win in the conference opener. Navy may not have the same potential on offense as last season’s unit that scored 38 points per game but a veteran defense could improve after a season of regression in 2016. The Bearcats look like a team to fade after last week’s miracle with Navy on an 11-4 ATS run as a home favorite. Cincinnati’s offense has managed only 61 points in three games despite facing a MAC squad and a FCS squad while this will technically be a third straight road game though the travel wasn’t far last week.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Tulane -2½
Tulane head coach Willie Fritz has a history of doing well in the 2nd year of his stints throughout his coaching career. He already has the Green Wave looking improved early this season. Of course Tulane got rolled by Oklahoma last week as that was expected. What was impressive is that, in their prior game, the Green Wave did a great job against Navy's option attack and lost by just 2 points. Now Tulane faces an Army option attack that is not quite at the level of the Midshipmen. That said, look for the Green Wave to enjoy even more success here and improve to 2-0 at home on the year (beat Grambling in their season opener). Army is 2-1 this season but they barely outgained Buffalo even though they were favored by more than two TDs in that game. Also, Tulane has a scheduling edge with their bye week on deck. Even though this game could be viewed as a revenge game (Army lost at home by 3 to Tulane 2 years ago), the Green Wave actually had a huge lead in that game and the Black Knights were fortunate they even got back into that game. They won't be so fortunate here as they're on the road and the Green Wave should have QB Jonathan Banks back in the lineup. Army is 1-6 ATS as a dog of less than 5 points.
DOUG UPSTONE
Arkansas St vs. SMU
Play: SMU -5½
The SMU Mustangs have played better than anticipated early on and are in a very good situation on Saturday. Play On home team after they gained 6.25 or more yards a play in games two consecutive games, in a contest between two teams with five or less defensive starters returning, in the first month of the season. In the past 24 years, teams like SMU are 24-4 ATS, 85.7%!
PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
Montreal vs. Toronto
Play: Montreal +7½
CFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Road dogs of +4 to +13 and Home dogs between -1 and +2 that finished last season at least 2 games below .500 are 88-44-4 ATS. Active to Play on the Tiger Cats and Alouettes this week!
OTHER TEAM TRENDS:
The Argonauts are 1-17 ATS (-10.19 ppg) since Aug 20, 2010 at home after a game at home
The Argonauts are 12-32-1 ATS (-7.91 ppg) since Nov 18, 2007 as a home favorite
MATT JOSEPHS
Florida International vs. Rice
Play: Florida Int +2
I watched all of the Rice Houston game and was thoroughly unimpressed with the Owls. Their offense was stale and their defense got gashed. The team will be without their starting QB and one of their better weapons Sam Stewart. The team's one win came at UTEP which says more about the Miners then it does about Rice. FIU has had extra time to prepare for this one after their 17-10 win over Alcorn State. Let's be honest, they aren't that great either, but they are healthier and feature a little more talent.
FREDDY WILLS
Mississippi St vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -4
I’ll give the play at the top of the podcast and it’s on Georgia -4.5 between the hedges for our free play of the week. This is the most interesting match up of the week and I’m going to fade the hype of Miss State who just last week shocked LSU in their own building 37-7. I’m not overreacting. That was a massive coaching advantage for Miss State with Dan Mullen over Ed Orgeron as sad as it is to say.
In this game Kirby Smart has his best Georgia team and the last time he faced off against a good Miss State offense he did so as the DC at Alabama. They went on the road and held Dak Prescott, another mobile QB to just 89 yards rushing and 6 total points. This time a rested Georgia team hosts Miss State who just played a tough SEC game and is in a hang over spot, but let’s look at the match up a little more anyway.
For Miss State to win they must run the ball. Last year in their losses they averaged 2.31 ypc less compared to their wins. Nick Fitzgerald is getting some help this year from Aeris Williams who is averaging over 7 yards per carry, but this team had a very misleading victory at Louisiana Tech the week before and I expect some struggles getting that running game going this week.
Georgia defensively returns 10 starters this was a team that held Notre Dame and a mobile QB in Winbush to just 55 yards running and they did that on the road! Notre Dame’s offense has been great against everyone else and just ran for 515 yards last week against a usual stout Boston College defense. I believe that Miss State will have to win with the arm of Nick Fitzgerald and I don’t like his chances on the road where doesn’t have nearly as good of numbers particularly in the SEC road games where he only eclipsed a 101 QB rating once and it came against a bad pass defense in Ole Miss. How bad is a 101 QB Rating? Illinois, last year ranked 124th in college football for the season with a 101.4 QB rating. Fitzgerald on the road has a 107 QB rating. Vanderbilt ranked 116th in the nation a year ago with 107 QB rating.
Georgia’s offense is not lighting it up and that may be where most of you feel comfortable with 4.5 points if you are leaning towards Miss State’s side. A few things to look at here. Much like Miss State Georgia must run the ball to win behind their senior RB’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel who are both having great years so far as this offense is averaging 230 yards rushing per game. Just so you know since 2008, Georgia is 38-4 when rushing for over 200 yards. Miss State’s defense allowed 5.16 ypc in SEC play a year ago and allowed 200+ in 3 of their 4 road games. Now they held LSU in check, but LSU ran it just 29 times and both of their RB’s averaged over 5 yards per carry. I also think Jake Fromm is flying under the radar he seems to be a major upgrade over Eason. He makes quick decisions and it has benefited the running game.
At the end of the day both teams have impressive wins against premier programs Notre Dame and LSU while also defeating some very good group of 5 teams Louisiana Tech & Appalachian State. It should be a fun game, but I see Georgia winning this one by 7-10 points at least.
JIMMY BOYD
Army vs. Tulane
Play:Under 44½
It's common knowledge that Army runs the triple-option offense, but some people might not be as familiar with the option attack at Tulane, which was installed last year under new head coach Willie Fritz. Any time you have two option teams facing each other, chances are it's going to be a low scoring game.
One of the reasons it is so effective against other teams, is they just don't practice that much for it. For these two teams, they see it all the time in practice. They know the gap responsibilities and assignments that other teams struggle with. That should lead to a lot of long clock-eating drives that really shorten the game and make it difficult to score a lot of points.
Neither of these teams will be abandoning the run here. Tulane ranks 126th in passing at just 103.3 ypg and Army is way back at 130th averaging just 12.0 ypg.
Note that Tulane played a good Navy option offense earlier this season and that won finished with 44 points. That was with a rare 79-yard TD pass from Navy, a non-offensive TD by both teams and a safety. The actual offenses in that game were responsible for a mere 27-points. If we can avoid a bunch of fluke scores with defensive returns TDs, this total should stay well below the mark set by the books.
TEDDY DAVIS
Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor +28
This line here is solely based on performance alone. There is no doubt Baylor will be up for this game even though they are 0-3. Sooners come in as a very public team no doubt about it this week as they have covered every game and have the biggest win of the football season so far beating Ohio St.
The GOY line that Vegas releases in the summer had Oklahoma has 8 point favorites. Now, in just 3 weeks they have adjusted their line 20 points. The value is just too big to pass up here. With this big of line even if the Sooners are blowing them out, it still leaves for a great back door chance. I think Baylor will give great effort here and cover this large number.
MARC LAWRENCE
NC State vs. Florida State
Play: NC State +13
Edges - Wolfpack 6-1 ATS in Game Four; and 5-1 ATS away following consecutive home games… Seminoles: 1-4 ATS Game Two… With college football teams just 2-7 SUATS in Game Two when facing a foe in its 4th game of the season, including g0-3 SUATS as a favorite, we recommend a 1* play on NC State.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
TCU vs. Oklahoma St
Play: TCU +14
Let me start by saying last season Oklahoma State took down TCU 31-6 and the Frogs crocked early. Now, both teams are 3-0 but you could never confuse the two as the Cowboys with their high flying offense who scored on their first seven possessions against Pittsburgh last week are waiting for TCU's defense orientated clubs led by coach Gary Peterson. As an underdog in double digits he is 10-2 ATS and he will have to find a way to stop Mason Rudolph who averages 378 yards in three quarters. Conference opener...tough football.
KYLE HUNTER
Mississippi St vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -4
The Georgia Bulldogs host the Mississippi Bulldogs on Saturday night in a big SEC showdown. Mississippi State is coming off a massive 37-7 shellacking of LSU. That was a game that got everyone's attention.
There's a couple reasons why I think that game makes Mississippi State's road to a potential cover more difficult here. First, they are obviously feeling really good about themselves right now. Mississippi State celebrated for a couple days after that win, and it would be hard to not have some kind of letdown. Second, Mississippi State isn't going to sneak up on anyone after that kind of performance. They'll get the other teams best effort.
The public is buying into Mississippi State in a big way. 65% of bets are on Mississippi State here and that has driven this number down.
Georgia has a very strong defense, and the Bulldogs running game is elite. Mississippi State relies a lot on one player (Fitzgerald).
Maybe Mississippi State is just a lot better than I think, but this is a terrible spot for them. They have to prove it to me.
MIKE ANTHONY
NC State vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -12.5
Florida State has been great with their 3rd down defense - and they have also shown quick ways to switch their defensive shifts throughout the game. Florida State also has shown improvements in their passing game - led by Deondre Francois, keeping the team going forward on the field. They have to keep their Dline attacking - as well as they showed they can do, vs top ranked Alabama. Florida State is a team that will be pretty comfortable moving the ball well enough by air - the Seminoles are better than they have stat-wise, as well on the DB side as well - just enough to clamp it down. This NC State team lacks the overall level that the FSU group has, and they are definitely behind the 8 ball here playing their best opponent all season. You seem to never know what you're getting with this NC State team. Are they going to get lit up and give up 35, or score 35? And that's the very real problem. Their front lacks the ability to stop crucial 3rd downs anywhere near as good as NC State needs them too. Their special teams work was not so great in their expected win, vs Furman last game and will struggle again, here vs a much better team. Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Florida State wins by 17 or more.
RAY MONOHAN
Nevada vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State -28
This game is a complete mismatch. Washington State has one of the most unique and most threatening offenses in the nation. It's no secret what they'll look to do here against Nevada. Deep passes and quick pace should have this Wolfpack defense flustered as they've struggled all season long. Nevada enters Saturday giving up over 32 points per game and they've been torched by the pass game. On top of all that, Washington State's defense has actually stepped up some here through 3 games. They're only conceding 22 points per game, which is a rare sight for a Washington State team in the recent seasons. Some trends to note. Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. Cougars are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Cougars are not a team you want to mess with right now.
Will Rogers
Mississippi State vs. Georgia
Pick: Georgia -5.5
The set-up: Two undefeated SEC schools meet Saturday "between the hedges" at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga. The Miss. State Bulldogs are 3-0 and entered the AP's top-25 poll at No. 17 (first ranking since November of 2015), after their 37-7 "take-down" of then-No. 12 LSU last Saturday. The Georgia Bulldogs are also 3-0 and ranked No. 11, slightly up from the school's No. 15 ranking in the preseason. Georgia's best win of 2017 so far, was its 20-19 win at then-No. 24 Notre Dame in South Bend on Sep. 9. Georgia has won 10 of its last 11 meetings with Mississippi State and leads the all-time series 17-6.
Mississippi State: Dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald was named the SEC's Offensive Player of the Week after finishing with 260 yards of total offense against LSU, while accounting for four TDs (two passing and two rushing). He's completing 61.4% on the season with seven TDs and only one INT plus is the team's second-leading rusher with 240 yards (7.7 YPC) and five TDs. RB Aeris Williams leads the way with 336 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC. The Bulldogs average 297.7 YPG on the ground (11th) and are 9th in scoring at 47.7 PPG. Considering the defense has allowed just 9.3 PPG (6th) on 206.0 YPG (3rd), it's not hard to see why MSU is 3-0.
Georgia: Freshman QB Jake Fromm has passed for five TDs in three games since taking over for the injured Jacob Eason early in the season opener. “We have to get him to make good decisions,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart told reporters Tuesday in reference to Fromm. “As long as he does that, we can play winning football.” RB Sony Michel (160 yards on 5.5 YPC) is expected back after sitting out Samford with a minor injury and joins Nick Chubb (290 yards on 6.6 YPC) to give Georgia a lethal one-two RB punch. Georgia's D has played very well, allowing 14.3 PPG (21st) on 266.0 YPG (16th). The fact that the team's rush D allows just 71.0 YPG (5th) could be a huge factor against MSU's powerful rushing attack.
The pick: Mississippi State has scored 35 or more points in eight of its last 10 games (dating back to last year) but this will be the Bulldogs' first road test of 2017. "It’s our first SEC road game, which adds different challenges to the picture,” head coach Dan Mullen told reporters regarding the first meeting between the schools since 2011. Back-to-back games against the nation's 12th-ranked team (LSU last Saturday) and now its 11th-ranked team (Georgia right here), is a pretty big 'hill to climb.' I've noted already that Georgia has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two schools and I'll also add that Georgia has fared well at home vs. SEC-West foes here at home, going 10-3 its last 13 contests. I'm laying the points with Georgia.
Larry Ness
Hawaii vs. Wyoming
Pick: Wyoming -6
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will travel to War Memorial Stadium in Laramie, Wy to take on the Cowboys this Saturday night. Hawaii is 2-1 on the season, losing to UCLA 56-23 on September 9th, while Wyoming is 1-2 after losing 49-13 this past Saturday to Oregon (opened with a 24-3 loss at Iowa but then won Sep 9 at home 27-0 over Gardner-Webb). Both schools played in bowl games last season, Wyoming losing 24-21 to BYU to finish 8-6 and Hawaii winning 52-35 over Middle Tennessee St to finish 7-7. These schools haven't met since 2014, with Wyoming owning a 13-9 series edge.
Going 7-7 in his first season as Hawaii's head coach was quite an achievement for head coach Nick Rolovich, as he inherited a 3-10 team from 2015. Hawaii is led by QB Dru Brown who has completed 60.8% of his passes on the season with seven TD's and four INTs, while averaging 257.3 YPG through the air. RB Diocemy Saint Juste has 434 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) but just one TD for a team averaging 230.7 YPG on the ground. Hawaii's defense is allowing its opponents to average 36.3 PPG on 466.7 YPG.
Wyoming QB Josh Allen came into the 2017 season as a potential first-round pick (many had him as a HIGH pick!). However, he's completed only 56.3% for 566 yards (less than 200 YPG!) with two TDs and three INTs (he passed for 3203 yards in 2016 with a 28-15 ratio). Wyoming had no answers for Oregon's offense as the Ducks gained 558 yards, while the Cowboys were able to muster only 183. With Allen at QB, it's hard to imagine how Wyoming is averaging just 14.3 PPG (121st) on 269.7 YPG (125th). Is it real or is it Memorex?"
I believe the Cowboys are WAAY better than they've shown so far. The Cowboys won SIX of seven home games last year and have opened 1-1 at home in 2017. Losing to Oregon at home is acceptable. Losing here to Hawaii would NOT be.