Joe Everett
Central Florida Over 59½
The Knights are running Scott Frost’s version of Oregon’s zone read and hurry up attack. He has a dual threat quarterback from Hawaii McKenzie Milton to run his option style scheme that relies on a running threat behind center. Central Florida has some real NFL talent in junior receiver Tre’Quan Smith and junior tight end Jordan Akins, who was a third round draft pick by the Texas Rangers of MLB. The strength of this UCF team is an offensive line that boasts 100+ career starts and they should find success on the ground against an odd front Maryland team that has allowed 41 points to a suspect Texas offense and 17 points to FCS Towson last week.
The Terps have a run heavy offense that features a number of breakaway threats in runningbacks Ty Johnson, a junior who boasts a 15.1 yards per carry average and sophomore Lorenzo Harrison who averaged 7.2 yards a clip as a freshman. Maryland has a unique dual threat quarterback in freshman Kasim Hill and while he was a backup to Tyrrell Pigrome, Hill is a more accomplished passer and the future of the program at the position. The Terrapins have scored 50-plus points in both of their games, they are coming off the bye week and they’ll have an easier time putting points up at home in College Park. Central Florida lost a lot on defense from last year’s team and it that was an issue to start the season, as they gave up 134 rushing yards to Florida International and the Panthers averaged 5.2 yards a carry on the ground in that game.
Look for both teams to have problems getting their defenses off the field in what will turn into a shootout. Both teams have mobile passers, threats at runningback and strong offensive lines. The last time these two teams met the game went into double overtime but it ended in an UNDER in a 30-24 Maryland win, so Central Florida will have revenge on their minds. This number opened up at 64½ and has dropped five points down to 59½ but I’m doubting this game ends in anything below a 42-34 or at worst 38-31 Central Florida victory here.
Toledo / Miami Over 61
The Rockets might be 3-0 to start the year, but if we learned anything last week it’s that Toledo couldn’t stop a child at a school crossing after allowing Tulsa to run up and down the field for 423 rushing yards and six, yes SIX rushing touchdowns. The Rockets struggled with the Hurricane’s tempo, they couldn’t get off blocks against the run and now they’re up against another Hurricane in Miami. This Miami offense features a future pro in Mark Walton at runningback, an offensive line that returns four starters and the extra time off has allowed the Hurricanes’ number one receiver Ahmmon Richards more time to heal up his pulled hamstring.
Toledo has a squad loaded with seniors led by quarterback Logan Woodside and receiver Cody Thompson who scored three touchdowns last week. They have a two headed tandem at runningback with senior Terry Swanson and Art Thompkins who have combined for 512 rushing yards. The Rockets have a versatile attack, operating mostly out of read option shotgun sets that exploits mismatches in opposing secondaries. The potential issue with this play is a Miami defense that is loaded with NFL talent, namely sophomore defensive end Joe Jackson and his fellow sophomores Shaq Quarterman, Michael Pinckney and Zach McCloud. A trio of linebackers that set the tone for the defense and played a ton of snaps for the Hurricanes last season.
Look for Miami to jump out to an early lead and control most of this contest with a strong game by Mark Walton but Toledo won’t disappear with their own share of the scoring in this road game. These two teams haven’t met recently but the Rockets have gone 2-1 to the OVER to start the year. This line has only moved up a point from 60 to 61 points but while the appeal to grab the number early may be there, be mindful of the weather. The forecast is calling for a chance of thunderstorms but outside of a monsoon rolling through Coral Gables, we’re calling for a final in the range or 52-24 or 49-17 worst case.
TCU / Oklahoma St Over 71½
The Horned Frogs have a ton of athletes and their team speed is a major factor in this game with their spread attack featuring guys junior receiver like KaVontae Turpin and their two super freshmen Jalen Reagor & Kenedy Snell. Turpin is a similar type of player to Dante Hall or Darren Sproles with the type of game breaking speed and electric moves he is capable of making on special teams and on offense. Sonnie Cumbie will run tempo at the Cowboys and attempt to get his running backs Kyle Hicks (Questionable) and sophomore Darius Anderson the ball in space against the Cowboys linebackers to take advantage of their speed.
The Cowboys on offense have been automatic with the dynamic senior duo of quarterback Mason Rudolph and James Washington who are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. College secondaries just aren’t built to stop the talent Oklahoma State has in the receiving corps with Washington and guys like junior Jalen McCleskey and senior Marcell Ateman. All three of the Cowboys’ leading receivers have scored three receiving touchdowns and their tandem of Justice Hill and JD King at runningback has proven to be very effective. Against a TCU defense that allowed 36 points to Southern Methodist, look for the “Mason Rudolph Family Fun Show” to continue their high flying ways.
Oklahoma State dealt TCU a disheartening 6-31 loss in Fort Worth last year so there’s certainly a revenge factor here for the Horned Frogs and with both offenses clicking to start the year, look for a high scoring conference thriller in this one. The forecast in Stillwater is partly cloudy with a slight wind and while the line value is all but gone with the total jumping up to 71½ from the 64½ opener, this game has all the appearances of a boat race finishing in the range of 52-32 with the Cowboys running away with yet another win.
DAVE COKIN
TCU AT OKLAHOMA ST
PLAY: TCU +12.5
No doubt about it, trying to beat this Oklahoma State entry is a daunting task. The good news is that TCU doesn’t have to outscore the high powered Cowboys, they only have to stay with them.
Long story short, the Horned Frogs fit on a very reliable rushing stats formula I utilize with underdogs on a regular basis. The downside is that Oklahoma State has some impressive numbers in that category itself and the Cowboys passing game is almost absurd at this point.
The main reason this didn’t make my final cut is that I missed the optimum number. The betting public has liked the Cowboys all week, and I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if the number ticks back up at some point this morning. But the +14 that was available before the sharps got involved and snared the value is unlikely to resurface. If there’s one thing I’m practically anal about, it’s getting the optimum value. I can’t obtain that here, so the game will remain on my lean list.
As for support data on TCU from a tech standpoint, note head coach Gary Patterson is a superb 10-2 ATS when getting double digits, plus TCU is 8-3 vs. the line when playing with conference revenge. That revenge motive figures to be substantial here as there’s no way any of the TCU players has forgotten how badly they were dominated on their home field last season by Oklahoma State.
As for power ratings, I’ve got Oklahoma State by almost exactly where the number sits presents, so I can’t make a case for the dog off that data. But it’s a good situational spot in my opinion and I wish I’d have snapped up the two TD’s when it was available. As it is, I would only play the TCU side at the current number.
Brandon Lee
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Cubs -136
We cashed in on the Cubs Friday and once again they knocked off the Brewers in extra innings. I'm going to keep riding Chicago, who has now 9 of their last 10 to take a commanding 5.5-game lead in the NL Central and reduced their magic number down to 4. I don't see this team relaxing until the job is done and their spot in the postseason is secured. Love the price with the Cubs here with Kyle Hendricks on the mound. Hendricks has really been throwing the ball well and has quietly put together another strong season with a 3.22 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 22 starts. He's not allowed more than 3 runs in a single start since returning from the DL on July 24th, a span of 11 straight starts. He's owned the Brewers with a 2.87 ERA in 14 career starts against them. That includes a strong outing earlier this month, where he limited Milwaukee to just 3 runs in 6 innings, only giving up 4 hits and striking out 7.
Ray Monohan
Nevada vs. Washington State
Play: Washington State -28
This game is a complete mismatch.
Washington State has one of the most unique and most threatening offenses in the nation. It's no secret what they'll look to do here against Nevada. Deep passes and quick pace should have this Wolfpack defense flustered as they've struggled all season long.
Nevada enters Saturday giving up over 32 points per game and they've been torched by the pass game.
On top of all that, Washington State's defense has actually stepped up some here through 3 games. They're only conceding 22 points per game, which is a rare sight for a Washington State team in the recent seasons.
Some trends to note. Cougars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. Cougars are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
The Cougars are not a team you want to mess with right now.
Joseph D'Amico
Notre Dame vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State +3½
Michigan State had a week off to rest and prepare as HC, Mark Dantonio has his defense playing stellar football, not allowing and offensive TD and leading FBS schools in 3rd down defense (10.7% conversion rate). In LY's, 36-28 win over the Irish, the Spartans held the ball for 37:57 and ran for 262 yards on the ground. Notre Dame faces a stout run defense and has a QB in Lewerke who is completing just 51.1% of his passes. The Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS their L4 games played vs. Big Ten teams and 0-8 ATS their L8 games played following an ATS win. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS their L5 games played at home and 4-1 ATS their L5 games played overall.
Sean Murphy
UMass vs. Tennessee
Play:Tennessee -27½
The Vols suffered a heartbreaking loss on the final play of the game in Gainesville last week but I see this as an excellent ‘get right’ matchup against a UMass squad we’ve kept a close eye on so far this season.
After successfully fading the Minutemen with Old Dominion two weeks ago we switched gears and backed them last week on the road against Temple. It’s time to zig-zag again this week as they take a big step up in class against Tennessee.
I expected the UMass offense to bust out against Temple last week but that never really happened. Meanwhile, the Minutemen defense was pedestrian at best and obviously won’t find the going any easier this Saturday.
We’re being asked to lay a steep price with the Vols, but it’s warranted in my opinion.
John Martin
Oregon vs. Arizona St
Play: Oregon -14½
Here's a stat for ya. Oregon has scored exactly 42 points in the first half of each of their first three games against Southern Utah, Nebraska and Wyoming. It's safe to say their offense is back under Willie Taggart. They have looked as good as almost anyone in the country up to this point. Holding potential #1 draft pick Josh Allen and Wyoming to just 13 points and 183 total yards last week shows that their defense is much improved under new coordinator Jim Leavitt. Arizona State hasn't looked good any any of its three games. It only won by 6 against New Mexico State as 26-point favorites. The Sun Devils then lost at home to San Diego State by 10 as favorites, and lost by 7 at Texas Tech. The Sun Devils have been outgained by nearly 100 yards per game. Their defense has been shredded for 37.7 points and 505 yards per game thus far, and it won't get any easier against this high-powered Ducks attack this week.
Red Dog Sports
North Carolina +1½
The Tar Heels lost at Duke last year 28-27. They sit at 1-2 and will have no shot at a bowl if they go 1-3 with 3 home losses. QB Chazz Surratt was recruited by Duke and should be motivated playing the Blue Devils, who are 3-0 but go on the road (only 8 miles away) to play Larry Fedora's team that should have some confidence after a blowout win at ODU. UNC wins a close one but take the +1.5.
Tony Karpinski
TCU vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma St -12½
With a strong offense and a good, solid O-Line, that, in support of a great defense, makes Oklahoma State very tough to handle. The Cowboys will come out victorious in this big matchup between 2 ranked teams. Oklahoma State has attacked opponents front 7 with tenacity and vigor. Justice Hill has a team high 250 rushing YDs - which is going to be very hard to overcome for TCU when trying to stop them from running the ball. Oklahoma State just has far too much talent in their backfield for TCU to stop all game long.
The offense of TCU is in great shape, but, I'd argue they have not faced a defense like OSU is bringing to the table. At the top end of the NCAA, and 49.0 /game - those are numbers tat have me a little concerned for the Cowboys D, but still not enough. In fact QB, Kenny Hill has put up one special game vs Southern Methodist - but otherwise, nothing to be really too concerned about for the Cowboys. What makes this game even tougher, is how the Cowboys LBs pick up backs in the slot - and offensively, the Cowboys are a nightmare with their backfield options.
Cowboys are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and most of their starters haven't even played in the 4th Q of any of their games. Look for a BLOWOUT here in this one.
Ben Burns
Boston College vs. Clemson
Play: Boston College +34½
The Tigers are off an impressive nationally televised win at Louisville. Prior to that, they'd beaten Auburn. Now 3-0 SU/ATS, they're being asked to lay a ton of points. Off those back-to-back "big" wins and with another "high profile" game at V-Tech on deck, I believe that the Tigers may be ripe for a minor emotional letdown here. Not enough to cost them the game, just enough to prevent them from covering the inflated number. Off a blowout loss against ND and having been hammered by the Tigers last season, the Eagles are going to be doing everything they can to avoid a repeat performance. Consider grabbing the generous points with Boston College.
Frank Jordan
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -9.5
Pittsburgh won their first game by seven points, but have gotten crushed in their last two games to ranked teams a they head South to Georgia Tech looking to even up their record at 2-2. Georgia Tech lost their opener by a single point in overtime going for two and the win and failed, but responded nicely last time out winning 37-10 over Jackson State. Georgia Tech is coming off a bye week so they are well rested after the game against UCF was canceled due to hurricanes hitting Florida. The meeting between these two clubs in Pittsburgh last year was a great game with the Panthers pulling out the 37-34 victory. Georgia Tech entire team is TaQuon Marshall who is their top passer (232 passing yards and three TDs) and rusher (274 yards and six rushing touchdowns) and is poised for a double threat game against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has played a pair of quarterbacks this season with each throwing just a single touchdown and two interceptions while the running game is quite spread out with four players rushing for at least 70 rushing yards and four players with a rushing touchdown. Look for Georgia Tech to ride Marshall to two score win 34-20.
Brandon Shively
Syracuse vs. LSU
Pick: LSU -21
LSU takes on Syracuse and laying the points is the best move here.
The Tigers are going to just wear the Orange defense down. Syracuse just hasn't been tested with an offense like this one that LSU puts out.
LSU has put up 401 yards per game and they've put up 217 rush yards per game out of that. LSU has been notorious over the previous years to just wear teams down and eventually run all over them. They've done that this season with Derrius Guice who has 300 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Look for LSU to just pound the ball right at this Cuse line, as they'll eventually start to see more and more open gaps.
Zack Cimini
UL Monroe vs. UL Lafayette
Pick: UL Lafayette -6.5
Three games into the season and the Rajun Cajuns rank as the worst defense in college football in terms of points allowed. Overall, they’ve allowed fifty-three points a game. This has been against high division one schools and against low-level in Southeast Louisiana. While it may be tough to expect a big shift defensively, look for Lafayette to showcase the upper hand offensively to cover this number.
Jim Feist
Mississippi St at Georgia
Pick: Under
Mississippi State launched itself into the national rankings with an impressive rout of LSU last week allowing 7 points. They like to run the football, which chews up yards and the clock. The Under is 11-4 in the Bulldogs last 15 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Georgia can play defense, too, 13-3 under the total at home. Defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, the league's Defensive Lineman of the Week, set career highs in tackles (seven) and sacks (1.5) last week.
The Real Animal
Iowa +11
Hey I'm a Penn State fan from the days of Franco Harris, Lydell Mitchell, and John Capelleti (Lenny Moore alittle before my time). Saquon Barkley is in the neighborhood for sure. But damn, the Lions haven't played anybody with a schedule that includes Akron, Pittsburgh, and Georgia State, all at home. They and Washington have had the softest schedules in the country to date. Consider that Clemson has already beat Auburn at home and Louisville on the road. #4 in the country based on what? I certainly wasn't impressed with there defense versus USC in the Rose Bowl. I swear this number is inflated as well because Iowa based on the eye test can score on anybody and is certainly capable of playing physical defense. Penn State is just 6-21-1 ATS on the road against high-scoring teams averaging 32 points or more plus Iowa is 13-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog. Plus the Hawkeyes have covered 17 of 22 verus teams that average 37 or more points per game. It kind of bugs me that Pitt had possession for 38:20 against Penn State too. Iowa out to avenge a 41-14 road loss last year at State College. Iowa RB Akrum Wadley now listed as probable. Wish RB Butler was healthy but he's out 3-4 weeks. Iowa QB Golden has a 10-1 ratio so far. I'm a little worried about what the Hawkeyes gave up at Iowa State but they were stingy in the other two games. If the Hawkeyes don't turn the ball over they have a shot here. Penn State has been the recipient of nine turnovers to date from three horrible teams.