Lang? Any1 thanks again
Brad Powers
California +17
USC has covered 10 of the last 12 in the series and has won 13 straight overall including last year’s 45-24 (-16.5 win). The Trojans come in off the dramatic 2OT win over Texas in a game USC had several missed scoring opportunities in the first three quarters. USC QB Sam Darnold has been forcing the issue a bit with 6 interceptions already this season. Cal is already off to a 3-0 start after last week’s home upset over Ole Miss. The most shocking performance was that of the Cal defense shutting Ole Miss out in the second half (trailed 16-7). USC is really banged up off two physical games and could be caught in a bit of a flat spot with a big game vs Washington St on deck.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Purdue Boilermakers.
Watch out Coach Khakis!
Michigan is in a dangerous spot this Saturday afternoon when they head to West Lafayette for the first time since October of 2012, as this is not your normal Big Ten door-mat Purdue team they will be facing this season.
New head coach Jeff Brohm has the Boilermakers boiling, as Purdue is 2-1 and has covered in all 3 of those games. It happens to be Homecoming Weekend at Purdue, and this will be Michigan's first official road trip after opening the season at Arlington in a win over Florida, followed by a pair of spread losses to Cincinnati and Air Force as the double-digit favorite.
The Purdue offense can not only move the sticks, but they can score the football, so expect Michigan's Top-5 defense to be tested in this road game. The Boilers defense has shown much improvement, and I say this one stays closer than expected, as the Wolverines 5-13 spread mark as an away favorite is not one that has rewarded their backers all that often.
Take the points with the live dog home team on Homecoming.
Purdue the call.
3* PURDUE
Joey Juice
The Panthers are coming off a simply terrible loss last week, and to be honest their defense has been completely exposed as they simply cannot stop the pass.
That actually won't be as bad as it sounds for them as this Georgia Tech team will need to be stopped on the ground not in the air.
It won't be an easy task, but it'll be a lot easier than going against an air assault.
Georgia Tech on the other hand is a defensive monster. They will have no problems completely shutting down this Pittsburgh team on offense, as they continue to mourn the loss of James Conner.
Georgia Tech will keep the ball on the ground the clock will run and run and run.
A closer look into the numbers show that when Georgia Tech plays after a bye week they are 12- under in their last 16 attempts. More importantly when they play a team with a losing record Georgia Tech is 17-7-1 under in their last 25
This game will not reach the huge total as predicted. Bet Under!
4* PITTSBURGH-GEORGIA TECH UNDER
Tommy Brunson
It's a battle of the Bulldogs between the hedges in Athens this Saturday night, as Mississippi State visits Georgia, and my money is on the underdog in this battle of the dogs.
Miss State looks to build off of their 37-7 smack-down of LSU last weekend, and they will attempt to win at a venue they have not won at since the 1950's! State has lost 9 straight visits to Athens, the last coming back in 2011, in a 24-10 loss to UGa.
Georgia is off to a 3-0 start, but beating Appalachian State and Samford is not the same as beating a conference-rival that owns a 9-1 spread mark their last 10 as the road underdog.
Miss State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald played his high school football in Georgia, so this game has a little added meaning to him I am sure.
I can see this game heading right down to the wire, making any points they are giving very valuable.
Live dog in the battle of the dogs.
Mississippi State barks loud.
1* MISS STATE
Chris Jordan
The Central Michigan Chippewas have to be mentally drained. After a triple-overtime win against Rhode Island to start the season, they follow to Kansas and win by 18. But then they were blasted at Syracuse last week.
Now the Chipps host the Miami Ohio Redhawks, and I see a letdown coming. CMU leaves for two more road games after this, as it plays at Boston College next week and at Ohio the week after. Is this team going to be focused after last week, and with what's on deck?
Miami O will be ready to start the conference schedule. The 'Hawks are 1-2, as they sandwiched their lone win between a loss at Marshall and a home loss last week to Cincinnati. This team lost by an average of 4.5 points. The Redhawks are seething, and can taste their next win.
Take the road pup here, as Miami Ohio aims for the outright win.
4* MIAMI OHIO
Tommy Brunson
Free play for Saturday night will be to take the points with the Buffs of Colorado as they seek some big-time revenge on the Huskies of Washington.
These Pac 12 schools played for the conference title last December, as UDub ran away from CU, 41-10 as the Huskies were able to run their series winning streak to 7 in a row both straight up and against the spread. It's a streak that heads back to 1999, and while Colorado may not end the straight up futility, they should be able to end the against the spread slide, as the Buffaloes are off to a nice 3-0 start to their season, and they do own a 6-3 against the spread mark when listed as the home dog their last 9 times in that role.
The Huskies have failed 2 of 3 this season when laying the points, and they did take a graduation hit after making it to the playoffs last January, as Coach Peterson's team is not as strong as last year's edition.
Buffs use the points to cash in tonight in the home dog role.
2* COLORADO
Jack Brayman
As No. 22 San Diego State arrives in Colorado Springs, the Aztecs are hoping they can avoid a letdown after last week's win over then-No. 19 Stanford. The Aztecs are 3-0 after limiting Cal-Davis, Arizona State and Stanford to an average of 18 points per win. That defense is no joke, and if there is one team in the Mountain West that can slow Air Force's lethal rushing game, it's San Diego State's.
San Diego State has forced 70 turnovers since 2015, and you better believe a hands-on approach will keep the Aztecs an intimidating bunch. Defensive back Kameron Kelly earned the Mountain West defensive player of the week award after a big week versus Stanford last week, so he may be fired up for an encore.
On the other hand, with the Falcons' main threat grinding away with the rushing attack, that will keep the clock moving and a lower scoring game. Air Force shut out Virginia Military, and in Ann Arbor, lost to Michigan, 29-13. The Falcons holding the Wolverines to less than 30 at home is not too shabby.
Remember, this is an Air Force defense that went nine straight quarters dating to last season without allowing an offensive touchdown before visiting The Big House. The streak ended when Michigan scored late in the fourth quarter.
Defensive battle here. Play it low.
2* San Diego State/Air Force Under
Eric Schroeder
Time for a letdown?
The 22nd-ranked San Diego State Aztecs are in off two huge wins over Pac 12 foes, and now they head to chilly Colorado Springs for a date with that triple-option offense the Air Force Falcons employ. The Falcons are ranked seventh in the nation in rushing with 320.5 yards per game.
Fullback Parker Wilson is the x-factor today. Get him into triple figures rushing yards, and the Falcons can win this game outright.
Air Force is 1-1 after shutting out Virginia Military in the opener, and two weeks later losing a tough battle with Michigan. The Falcons covered +23 in Ann Arbor, losing by 16 in a game that was closer than that margin.
San Diego State has won six in a row against the Falcons, and lest we forget the Donnel Pumphrey era is over. Most of that win streak has nothing to do with these Aztecs. And Air Force is never an easy trip. The last time these teams met was in the 2015 Mountain West Championship, as the Aztecs pulled off a three-point win.
Finally, the enter-the-Top-25-and-lose-immediately theory comes into play, as the Aztecs just entered the rankings after last week's 20-17 win over then-No. 19 Stanford. Last year San Diego State was 3-0 and ranked 22nd in the nation as it visited South Alabama. Coach Rocky Long's boys came back from Mobile, Alabama with their first loss of the season.
Take the home underdog.
1* AIR FORCE
Chris Jordan
My late free winner for you is a Pac 12 side, as I like the Oregon Ducks to go into Tempe, Arizona and destroy the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Real quick, where I think the Ducks will thrive, is anywhere and anytime in their offensive drives. Arizona State has the worst third-down defense in the nation, which is fatal against a team like Oregon.
Through the first three weeks, opponents have converted 24 of 44 third downs (54.55 percent). And in those three games, ASU has forced a mere eight three-and-outs. Add in the fact the Devils will be missing senior linebacker Koron Crump and this is going to be a long night.
Oregon has scored 168 points in its first three games, and that's the No. 1 scoring offense in America. I like what I've seen on both sides of the ball, as first-year coach Willie Taggart has the Ducks playing very well.
Lay the late chalk here.
3* OREGON
DAVE PRICE
New Mexico vs. Tulsa
Play: Tulsa -11½
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have made big strides under head coach Philip Montgomery. Their loss at Oklahoma State in the opener doesn't look so bad now. They went on to beat UL Lafayette by 24 in Week 2, a UL Lafayette team that led Texas A&M 21-14 on the road at halftime last week. And then Tulsa only lost 51-54 on the road at Toledo as 7-point dogs. Most have picked Toledo to win the MAC this season. New Mexico had one of the best seasons in program history last year. But they were clearly going to take a step back this year with only 10 starters back, including 3 on defense. And they've opened 1-2 with their only win over Abilene Christian. They were upset 28-30 at home by New Mexico State in Week 2, then they were fortunate to cover as 17-point dogs in a 14-28 loss at Boise State last week. They scored a TD in garbage time in the closing minutes. That's a Boise team that was just blasted at home 24-43 by Virginia last night. The key handicap here is that New Mexico is down to 3rd-string QB Coltin Gerhart due to injuries to their top 2 starters. Well, Gerhart is not a runner, so that completely destroys the Lobos' option attack. They'll have to get out of their comfort zone and throw the ball more this week.
SPORTS WAGERS
VANDERBILT +18½ over Alabama
When it comes to public perception, Vanderbilt and Alabama are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Alabama is the gold standard of college football and currently the top-ranked team in all polls across America. Its reputation and prestige speaks for itself. By contrast, Vanderbilt is known as the traditional featherweight of the SEC. Situationally, this sets up a perfect scenario, as we can find extensive value on the Commodores by virtue of those biases alone. It helps that the Commodores are actually a very good football team.
The 2017 rendition of Vanderbilt is not the Commodores we’re accustomed to seeing. This ensemble features a talented stable of running backs anchored by one of the game’s best rushers in Ralph Webb. The ‘Dores also have a quarterback they can rely on in clutch situations by the name of Kyle Shurmur. Additionally, Vandy is the owner of the BEST scoring defense in all of America and enter this game undefeated just like Alabama. This feat was not achieved against a cornucopia of FCS cupcakes either. The Commodores made an immediate statement in their season opener against Middle Tennessee State, where they would beat down the Blue Raiders by a score of 28-6. What is even more impressive is that Vandy did this on the road in Murfreesboro, where MTSU is known as a very tough club to beat. Furthermore, the Blue Raiders were highly-touted and were perceived to have one of the Conference USA’s most potent offenses in 2017. The ‘Dores made them look like BYU. Vandy would follow that up with a 42-0 shutout at home the following week against Alabama A&M, which did nothing to boost its market credentials, as it was a game completely off the grid. Last week, however, Vanderbilt achieved its most impressive win of the season, as it defeated the #18 Kansas State Wildcats by a score of 14-7. Vanderbilt was once again undervalued as they closed as a five-point pooch.
Head Coach Derek Mason has employed a blue-collar mindset and a lunchbox-in-hand approach that all involved have bought into. This is a rugged and snarling football team that is so relentless in its pursuit of the football. Let’s not dismiss that what Vandy did to the Wildcats last week in what is typically a “look-ahead” spot. Despite an exclamatory victory in a difficult scheduling spot, Vanderbilt is still not getting any market cred. The Commodores come into this fixture with an opportunity to show America how good they really are against the measuring stick in all of college football. This is Alabama’s first bona fide road game of the year and they are stepping into an environment that will be energized against a Vanderbilt club that is far superior to the outfit it trampled when the two last met in 2011. This is a game Alabama will have to work for with Vandy chomping at the bit to finally get noticed. You always pay a premium to back the Tide and now you’ll pay that price on the road.
Nevada +28½ over WASHINGTON ST
Situationally, the Cougars are set-up perfectly to be a fade candidate here. For those that tuned in to the Cougars’ clash with visiting Boise State on a nightcap of gridiron on September 9th, commentators highlighted that September 29th was a date circled, highlighted, and boxed on the calendars of all Washington State fans, coaches, alumni, and players. September 29th is the day that USC is scheduled to come to Pullman and Washington State has been patiently waiting. The prospect of an undefeated Trojans coming to town against an expected-to-be undefeated Cougars team sets up the possibility of a primetime collision aired for national audiences. The sheer thought of such a spectacle has fired up a fan base that has endured some bumpy years until the Cougars’ recent re-emergence from the doldrums.
There is little dispute that the Cougars have made leaps in the past few seasons. Washington State has won at least eight games in each season dating back to 2015 and they were in contention for a possible Pac 12 Championship Game appearance in 2016 until their arch rival Washington took them down in the annual Apple Cup. The Cougars also feature arguably the best quarterback in America in Luke Falk who has been an effective and efficient weapon that nurtured the Wazzu renaissance. While there is heightened enthusiasm and a lot of excitement surrounding the Cougars program and its ceiling as a whole, it was clear that Washington State was guilty of looking ahead when they hosted the Broncos. The Cougars trailed by as much as 21 points against Boise State and were forced to cultivate a huge rally to force overtime. Washington State would escape with a win but exposed some chinks in their armor in the process. While the Cougars boast the sixth-best passing attack in America (408.3 yards per game) and an incredulous 43.3 points per game, Wazzu gave their foes a glimpse of their weaknesses. Their offense is built to score frequently and rapidly. Such air raid strategies are virtually unstoppable when deployed appropriately. However, this approach to the game can also result in large leads evaporating if mistakes are made or if the operations stall. Thus, a team like the Cougars are almost always a risk when spotting this kind of lumber to any team, including one as lowly as 0-3 Nevada. Failing to cover a 41-point line against a one-dimensional FCS cupcake in Montana State when the Cougars opened their season exemplifies that too.
Furthermore, if Washington State was guilty of potentially looking ahead when welcoming a team as good as Boise State to Martin Stadium three weeks out from USC, what could be said when the quality of competition is a step down with just a week to go until the big showdown? With the Cougars on a collision course with the Men of Troy in what could be a landmark game for Washington State, there is a strong possibility that Mike Leach calls off the dogs once this contest is well in hand. For Wazoo, its fans and media in that region, this game is merely a glorified practice and that gives the Wolf Pack a big chance to come in through the back door if it is required.
Nevada is still looking for its first win this season and they are also looking to salvage some semblance of pride after being upset at home last weekend as a 32½-point choice against a FCS opponent in Idaho State. Going from a 32½-point choice to a 28-point dog in the span of one week is a 60-point swing and we’re not sure we’ve ever seen that before at this level. It’s the prudent choice.
TEXAS ST. +13 over UTSA
When comparing these two outfits, there is simply more appeal in UTSA than Texas State. The Road Runners come into this affair undefeated and the ripples they sent throughout college football are likely still felt in this market after they shocked Baylor at home two weeks ago. As a 12½-point road pup, Coach Frank Wilson and company would dictate the pace and flow of the game on the Bears’ own field. UTSA is a textbook triple option football team and as teams of its breed often do, ball possession and clock control are staples of their methodologies. UTSA had its way in doing so against Baylor. However, in spite of Baylor’s performance year-to-date, the verity of such an achievement is subject to skepticism.
UTSA has had a propensity to be a tremendous value play when they are undervalued or off-the-radar. The Road Runners gave fits to Arizona State in 2016 as a 21½-point home dog in which the Sun Devils had to resort to heroics to escape with a win after they trailed by as much as 16 points. Furthermore, on two other occasions, the Road Runners would win in dominant fashion as a 16½-point pooch hosting Southern Mississippi and as a 19-point pup on the road at Middle Tennessee State. UTSA took advantage of weak defenses and just like Novocaine, if you give their strategy time, it will eventually work. However, if there is a team that is familiar with Texas San Antonio it would be their old friends from San Marcos, the Texas State Bobcats. Texas State took App State to the wire last week and came within one yard of sending that game into OT. The final score read 20-13.
These two teams comprise a dormant feud which has been once again activated known as The I-35 Rivalry. The last time the two teams met was in 2012 and UTSA was the victor in that meeting when they edged out the Bobcats by a score of 38-31. Previous to that, the Bobcats won six of the previous seven contests in the annual grudge match but this is all ancient history. Fast forward to the present and Texas State has won just five games in the previous two seasons and has yet to qualify for its first bowl game in school history despite being eligible in 2014 when they went 7-5. As a result of UTSA’s accolades of late, they are subjected to what we call a recency bias. Very simply, the Road Runners have generated more press, as they were in a bowl last year and is a legit contender to win Conference USA this year. It has already beaten a Power 5 team in Baylor on the road and is giving up only 212 yards per game. To that we say big deal, as Baylor has turned out to be a mess, UTSA’s first game of the year was cancelled in Houston and last week, as a 35-point favorite, they defeated Southern, 51-17. The Road Runners failed to cover that 35-point line when they hosted Southern and they are 1-5 ATS in the handful of situations they have been laying double digits or more dating back to the 2014-15 season. This is a team that is much better suited being the hunter and not the hunted, which is exactly what they are heading into San Marcos as they battle a nostalgic adversary who will treat this match-up as if it were a bowl game.
UL-Monroe +6½ over UL-LAFAYETTE
Situationally, the Cougars are set-up perfectly to be a fade candidate here. For those that tuned in to the Cougars’ clash with visiting Boise State on a nightcap of gridiron on September 9th, commentators highlighted that September 29th was a date circled, highlighted, and boxed on the calendars of all Washington State fans, coaches, alumni, and players. September 29th is the day that USC is scheduled to come to Pullman and Washington State has been patiently waiting. The prospect of an undefeated Trojans coming to town against an expected-to-be undefeated Cougars team sets up the possibility of a primetime collision aired for national audiences. The sheer thought of such a spectacle has fired up a fan base that has endured some bumpy years until the Cougars’ recent re-emergence from the doldrums.
There is little dispute that the Cougars have made leaps in the past few seasons. Washington State has won at least eight games in each season dating back to 2015 and they were in contention for a possible Pac 12 Championship Game appearance in 2016 until their arch rival Washington took them down in the annual Apple Cup. The Cougars also feature arguably the best quarterback in America in Luke Falk who has been an effective and efficient weapon that nurtured the Wazzu renaissance. While there is heightened enthusiasm and a lot of excitement surrounding the Cougars program and its ceiling as a whole, it was clear that Washington State was guilty of looking ahead when they hosted the Broncos. The Cougars trailed by as much as 21 points against Boise State and were forced to cultivate a huge rally to force overtime. Washington State would escape with a win but exposed some chinks in their armor in the process. While the Cougars boast the sixth-best passing attack in America (408.3 yards per game) and an incredulous 43.3 points per game, Wazzu gave their foes a glimpse of their weaknesses. Their offense is built to score frequently and rapidly. Such air raid strategies are virtually unstoppable when deployed appropriately. However, this approach to the game can also result in large leads evaporating if mistakes are made or if the operations stall. Thus, a team like the Cougars are almost always a risk when spotting this kind of lumber to any team, including one as lowly as 0-3 Nevada. Failing to cover a 41-point line against a one-dimensional FCS cupcake in Montana State when the Cougars opened their season exemplifies that too.
Furthermore, if Washington State was guilty of potentially looking ahead when welcoming a team as good as Boise State to Martin Stadium three weeks out from USC, what could be said when the quality of competition is a step down with just a week to go until the big showdown? With the Cougars on a collision course with the Men of Troy in what could be a landmark game for Washington State, there is a strong possibility that Mike Leach calls off the dogs once this contest is well in hand. For Wazoo, its fans and media in that region, this game is merely a glorified practice and that gives the Wolf Pack a big chance to come in through the back door if it is required.
Nevada is still looking for its first win this season and they are also looking to salvage some semblance of pride after being upset at home last weekend as a 32½-point choice against a FCS opponent in Idaho State. Going from a 32½-point choice to a 28-point dog in the span of one week is a 60-point swing and we’re not sure we’ve ever seen that before at this level. It’s the prudent choice.
APP STATE +6 over Wake Forest
App St has failed to cover in all of its games. In other words, if you bet App State at any point this year, you have ripped up your ticket and probably vowed to not go there again. As a 21½-point favorite last week against Texas State, the Mountaineers scored a lousy 20 points and did not come close to covering in a 20-13 win. In fact, Texas State ended the game on App State’s one-yard line, ala Kurt Warner in Super Bowl XXXIV. We are in the buy low business and that’s what we are doing here.
We are also in the sell high business, which brings us to the overvalued Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Wake is 3-0 and has scored an incredible 131 points in their three wins. The Deacs have barely broken a sweat this year, outscoring its opponents by a resonating 131-17. You will now pay dearly for getting behind an untested team that has defeated Presbyterian, Boston College and Utah State. Combined, those three squads that Wake defeated are a combined 3-9. The teams that they beat are the Campbell Camels (we don’t make this shit up), Northern Illinois and Idaho State. There is a price to pay for scheduling games against weak opponents and the Deacs are likely going to pay that price here. This team has proven nothing of substance yet but the market is drooling over spotting a small price on them. Frankly, we’re not even convinced that Wake is the better team. We know for sure that they are the overvalued squad here going up against an undervalued host.
In Week 1, Appalachian State was a 12½-point dog at Georgia. Against that tremendous defense, App State would rack up 136 yards on the ground and another 148 through the air. The Mountaineers would fall behind 21-0 early before finding its feet and matching the Dawgs the rest of the way. In the final 38 minutes of that game, App State and Georgia would play to a 10-10 tie. If App State was getting 12½ in Georgia, they should not be getting this many points at home against Wake. This one is so tempting to play straight up because App State can absolutely win outright. However, there is just such tremendous value in the points that we’re going to have to lean that way instead.
Central Florida +4½ over MARYLAND
Maryland lost starting quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome in its season-opening win at Texas in a game that was broadcast across the country. True freshman Kasim Hill led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives, and that win looks even better now with the way Texas has responded in the past two weeks. Maryland then went on to beat Towson 63-17 to run its record to 2-0 and that’s where they sit, as last week they had off. While Maryland’s offensive numbers are terrific, the defense is not, as it allowed the Longhorns to put up massive yardage and 41 points. Even Towson threw for 210 yards against Maryland while running for another 100. What’s so interesting about this game is that UCF has been off for 21 days so this market has completely forgotten about them. We haven’t.
We had UCF wrongly pegged to go under their season win total and as fate or luck would have it, the wager was refunded because the Knights will not play the required games. UCF’s last two scheduled games have been cancelled but that only gave this tremendous coaching staff more time to prep and more time to practice. An opening night rout of Florida International showcased how well this team can pitch and catch down the field. Sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton still has ball security issues, which is a problem that can be solved and he showed improved accuracy and appears poised to take a big step forward in 2017 for what should be an increasingly explosive attack. Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander is one of the top assistants in the league and he has All-America candidate Shaquem Griffin leading what might be the league's top unit. Head coach Scott Frost is an offensive guy, but learned under masters Tom Osborne, Bill Walsh and Chip Kelly, and does a great job setting a physical, run-and-hit tone for the whole program. Win or lose this week, we’ll want to be buying Frost's bunch this year and beyond and it starts here. We’re going to split this up and play UCF both on the money line and point spread.
Harry Bondi
MIAMI-OHIO (-1.5) over Central Michigan
Miami-Ohio comes in 1-2, but could very easily be 3-0 after outplaying both Marshall and Cincinnati but ultimately coughing up the lead in the fourth quarter and losing both games. Today, the offense gets on track against a Central Michigan defense that’s allowing an average of 445 total yards and 33 points per game. On offense, CMU has some cluster injuries at the skill positions which will spell doom here today if they fall behind early. One year ago, Miami Ohio hosted Central Michigan as a 1-point favorite and won by 20 and we see more of the same here today.
Bob Balfe
Duke Pk
I have been impressed with the Duke Defense this year. Maybe it’s because of their opponents, but this team looks like they will be in the mix of things in the ACC. UNC lost so much NFL talent from last year’s roster. You just can’t replace that. This UNC team doesn’t have a go to quarterback, no real established running back, not many targets and a really banged up offensive line that could be missing their center and both tackles today. On the Duke side of the offense you have a smart QB who is mobile, a good running back and a ton of targets to catch the ball. The Blue Devils have more talented football players on their roster this year.
Paul Bovi
Penn State at Iowa
Play: Iowa +12.5
Hawkeyes have revenge on their mind as they have suffered several blowouts at the hands of the Nittany Lions. Penn St has not been impressive offensively this year when it counted, that vs Pitt as McSorley threw for only 164 with 3 INT's while the Panthers were torched by Youngstown and shredded by Mason Rudolph to the tune of about 500 through the air. PSU has beat up on Akron and Georgia State besides the win over Pitt. Hawkeyes should be very competitive at home.