SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO -107 over Colorado
Colorado is on the verge of making the playoffs and now it is evenly priced in San Diego, which is an angle we like to attack. While most of the market will use the “must win” angle for getting the behind the Rocks, we prefer the spoiler role team, as they’re motivated relaxed and very dangerous.
Aside from that, Jhoulys Chacin has been tremendous at Petco with a 1.91 ERA and a .182 oppBA over 15 starts. Chacin can provide some sneaky value if you use him judiciously. He's one of the NL's better starters against right-handed batters with 9.1 K’s/9 1.9 BB’s/9 and a 53% groundball rate. Those skills have helped him produce a 2.72 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against them. Chacin has 23 K’s over his past 26 frames and he figures to be extra jacked up here to make life miserable for his former team.
Chad Bettis has made just seven starts this year. Last year he made 32 starts and racked up 17 victories. Bettis is Exhibit A of why W-L record isn't an accurate barometer of value. Bettis got more run support last year than any starting pitcher not named Arrieta. While his skill foundation was trending slightly in the right direction, his underlying numbers tells us he’s still subpar. Bettis’ dominant starts/disaster starts splits reveal his blowup risk, especially given his gopheritis v righties. This year, Bettis has 23 K’s in 35 innings to go along with a 6.23 ERA and 5.33 xERA. Frankly, with so much time missed, it’s hard to get a read on how strong he’s feeling or if the small sample size this year is as bad as it appears. If you are thinking of speculating on Bettis, we’re suggesting you speculate elsewhere.
Pass CFL
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Arkansas St vs. SMU
Play: SMU -3
his game is sure to be an offensive shootout, as both of these teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but they've also had trouble at times getting off the field defensively. The over may be worth a look when a line is released. As for picking a winner, it's likely going to be the team that has the ball last. I'm going with SMU because they're at home and they have the better ground game, which allows them to control the pace and eat click when needed in the second half.
The oddsmakers expect a shootout in the high 30’s+ for each team. The last time we saw this scenario, ASU used a physical and explosive defense to overwhelm UCF and keep them to 13 points. I think SMU has more weapons on offense but may be just as average on defense.
I have the algorithms at a tier 3. SMU wins 45-34, 42-28, and 34-26.
JOHN RYAN
Bowling Green vs. Middle Tennessee State
Play: Middle Tennessee State -7
Data analytics with over 70% ATS winners
MTSU 68-22 when scoring 28 or points
BG 33-77 when allowing over 28 points
MTSU 10-0 when outgaining opponent by 1.5 to 2yds.
Round Table Discussion Points
Last year both teams met in Bowling Green with Middle Tennessee State winning by a score 41-21 and we feel not much has changed in the way of personnel and coaching and catch the better team at home today laying a touchdown. Both teams return 12 starters from last year’s team while MTSU went 8-5 going to a bowl game while Bowling Green finished the season at 4-8. Bowling Green is giving over 39 points per game in 2017. Both offenses have struggled against some better teams, but the MTSU defense has fared a little better. MTSU QB Brent Stockstill is completing 59% of his passes and should find the playbook to be more effective against this class of opponent. Look for the MTSU offense to get on track this week and the Blue Raiders to come out on top similar to last year. Take MTSU and lay the 7
Bruce Marshall
Auburn at Missouri
Pick: Under
Malzahn offense not yet firing on all cylinders, but Gus ran into a monster defense in Clemson and it was a low-key game last week, and I think Auburn starts to fire soon On other hand, Mizzou looks a disaster, morale at low ebb, Odom not pushing right buttons. Apathy everywhere, this is part of the aftermath of all of the stuff that went on there a couple of years ago, just a terrible vibe in Columbia. Fans were leaving in droves by halftime last week, and not sure Odom has a clue what to do. Now they say Odom's job is in trouble, the AD Sterk (former Wazzu, & SDSU) wasn't even the one who hired him. Whatever, his defense has little clue for sure, after staff switch just two weeks into season, and Brohm took foot off pedal last week. Moreover, the supposed high-speed offense has scored 16 points total against South Carolina and Purdue the past two weeks, and now runs into Auburn, at least as good or better on stop end than both. If Mizzou gets beyond ten points would be surprised. Thus the "under" looks a bit better call than the Auburn side.