Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Saturday, September 24th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
CENTRAL FLORIDA AT FLORIDA INT
PLAY: CENTRAL FLORIDA -7
It hasn’t been very good for UCF over the last season and change. The Knights did open the season with a victory over an FCS opponent, but they haven’t won vs. an FBS opponent since December of 2014. There’s an excellent chance that unfortunate streak finally ends this Saturday.
The losing streak actually started in a bowl game at the end of the ’14 campaign, when UCF lost a close game to North Carolina State. But it was 2015 when things came apart for this program, and the very first loss last season was a 15-14 loss to these Golden Panthers. Central Florida led the game 14-3 at the break, and then proceeded to get blanked in the second half en route to an eventual 15-14 upset loss. It was all downhill from there for UCF. The Knights lost all of their remaining games and were generally not very competitive.
Scott Frost is the new head coach at UCF, and while he has little chance of turning the program around immediately, he’s already getting what appears to be better effort from his players than they displayed last year. UCF is 1-2 with the win coming against South Carolina State. But I thought the Knights showed some fight at Michigan in game in which they were simply overmatched, and UCF just missed this past Saturday vs. Maryland, losing in two overtimes.
While bouncing back from a very tough loss can be difficult, I believe the Knights will be very focused to get some revenge against FIU, and they match up well with the Panthers. UCF wants to go run heavy on offense, and that strategy should be something they can implement against a pretty soft looking FIU rush defense.
What’s interesting is that each team here has already played and lost to Maryland. I don’t think there’s any question the Knights played the Terrapins much tougher than did the Panthers. Fact is, if not for losing the turnover battle badly with Maryland, Central Florida would be playing this game off a win. FIU was never in the game in their home matchup with the Terps.
The loss to Maryland was devastating as the Knights were three yards away from a win before their freshman QB fumbled. But the comments after the game from the losing side were encouraging and I do not expect the hangover syndrome to be a factor here.
The statistical matchup is clearly favorable to UCF in terms of the numbers I like to key on, and I absolutely think the revenge factor is in play here. If this goes the way I think it will, the road team will be in ground and pound mode against a host that won’t stop them to a great extent. I like Central Florida minus the points in this one.
Sean Higgs
Louisville vs. Marshall
Play: Marshall +25½
What a setup for us here. We get Louisville off an absolute throttling of Florida State dropping 63 on the Seminoles. Now they hit the road extra full of themselves laying a boatload to the Herd. Now, not saying the Herd is a very good team. And coming off another game, maybe they cover. But the Cardinals have Clemson, on the road up next. Lamar Jackson has more TDs (18) than 100+ colleges, so it isn't like this team can't score. But I can see them pushing the brakes a bit here with the Tigers on deck.
Harry Bondi
SYRACUSE (+5) over UConn
The Orangemen come into to this game off two blowout losses to South Florida and Louisville, but drop way down in competition this week. Last week’s loss to South Florida was actually a bit misleading since Syracuse had more total yards and first downs in the game. In fact, in its first three games the new up-tempo Syracuse attack has averaged 27 points and over 500 yards per game and will have too much firepower for a pedestrian UConn offense that scored just 13 points last week in a win over Virginia. The Huskies have also been money-eaters at the betting window, covering just seven of their last 28 games overall while going 1-8 ATS as a favorite and 4-11 ATS on its home field. Take the points!
Bob Balfe
Mets -115
The Mets have been in this spot before and faded. I don’t think this team is going to do so. The next few days this team has the Braves and the Phillies on the schedule. That is a silver platter to run the table so the series with Miami won’t even matter. Last night the Braves won the game and New York will be on high alert today. The Braves are the worst team in the national league. You have to win these types of games.
Oskeim Sports
Louisiana Tech at Middle Tenn St
Play: Middle Tenn St -5.5
Middle Tennessee State possesses a potent offense that is averaging 40.0 points per game and 537 total yards at 6.6 yards per play this season. The Blue Raiders' attack is being coached by offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who served in the same capacity at California from 2013 to 2015. Franklin is widely regarded as a quarterback guru after developing Jared Goff into the #1 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft.
Middle Tennessee State quarterback Brent Stockstill is having a solid 2016 campaign, completing 65.5% of his pass attempts for 7.7 yards per pass play with 11 touchdowns. Stockstill has one of the conference's best wide receiving units to throw to, with offensive player of the year candidate Richie James leading the way with 28 receptions for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Blue Raiders should have success moving the chains through the air against a subpar Louisiana Tech secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.5% of their pass attempts for 8.3 yards per pass play. The Bulldogs have also allowed 40.0 points per game in their first two road games this season, with opposing quarterbacks completing 70.8% of their pass attempts for 10.2 yards per pass play.
Middle Tennessee State also boasts a very good ground game led by Mississippi transfer I'Tavius Mathers, who has garnered 284 rushing yards on 47 carries with four touchdowns (6.0 yards per carry).
The scheduling situation also favors Middle Tennessee State as the Bulldogs are traveling for the third time in four weeks and are coming off an exhausting 59-45 loss at Texas Tech last week. From a technical standpoint, the Blue Raiders are a profitable 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in September and 10-3-1 ATS in conference home games.
Dave Cokin
UNLV -14.5
Two programs heading in opposite directions clash at Sam Boyd Stadium on Saturday evening as UNLV plays host to Idaho.
Idaho is a program that is in decline, which actually isn't easy for a team that has had very little success going back several seasons. But that's the only way to describe the state of the Vandals at this point. Idaho is now in what will be its next to last season as an FBS member. They're dropping down to the FCS in 2018, as they simply don't have the resources to compete. It's the first time in more than 30 years that a program will voluntarily be drop down in class.
It seems pretty clear that enthusiasm is at an all-time low for this school as far as football is concerned, and that seems to be the case on the field as well based on the early results. Idaho managed to eke out a win over Montana State to get things started. But they've since been annihilated by Washington State and Washington, and now the Vandals have to play a third consecutive road game against a hungry UNLV squad eager to get back in the win column after a couple of losses.
The Rebels opened with a blowout win over Jackson State and acquitted themselves well in a loss to UCLA as well as in the first half last week at Central Michigan. The second half was not good for UNLV as they appeared to wear out and the Chippewas ended up running them out.
I would expect a solid bounce back from UNLV here. Tony Sanchez is not a coach who appears averse to making statements when he has the opportunity, and he should definitely have that opportunity here. There are certainly some issues on this team that still need to be addressed, not the least of which is a little more accuracy from QB1 Johnny Stanton. Those numbers should improve here as Idaho is surrendering a completion percentage of more than 65%.
On paper, I made UNLV -16.5 here, so I'm not getting ripped off as far as the price is concerned. But I'm also bullish on the situation for the Rebels here. This is obviously a must win for the Rebs if they're to have a chance at snaring a bowl bid this season. But it's also a great chance to look impressive against a visitor that figures to be a little worn down after getting thumped by a pair of superior PAC-12 opponents. I also just wonder whether the interest and energy levels for Idaho will wane if they fall behind by any kind of margin. Should that happen, let's just say I have a great deal of confidence that the Rebels will keep on scoring.
UNLV has rarely found itself in the heavy chalk role but I believe it's more than justified here and I've got no problem asking them to blow away the visiting Vandals. I also believe there's more chance this line goes up if anything from where it is now, so I'm going ahead and laying the points with UNLV right now
Sleepyj
Iowa -13
Hawkeyes got beat last weak to N. Dak St.....The jack rabbits are very good and could beat a bunch of top teams IMO....It looks bad, but overall it will fuel the fire for the Hawkeyes here....Iowa looked great the first two weeks and actually beat two teams who are decent...On the other hand Rutgers is terrible....The Rutgers offense and defense won't hold up here....Even at home the Iowa buzzsaw is in effect....Rutgers played one good team and that was Washington on the road....Scarlett Knights got smashed in that game....Rutgers actually got exposed last week Vs. New Mexico and some things just showed in the game....Rutgers isn't that good and Iowa should be willing to get back on track in a major way....This rated in a strong 2** play as my number was -18....I smell a blowout.
BYU +7
I'll place a small wager on BYU here....My big thing going into last week was this team plays close games....Same thing again last week...That makes 3 games decided by 3 points or less in a row....I like the fact that this game is in Andover and not in W.V.....BYU coming off a loss should be looking to redeem themselves, but I worry they might be a bit tired....Still the Cougars have faced some very tough competition and they played well on the defensive side of the ball in all 3.....Cougars still got Taysom Hill and he has yet to really get going...This WV defense might be just what the doctor ordered to get him back on stride today....WV hasn't been tested from what I see on the schedule...They beat up on Missouri and Youngstown...So no real challenge compared to the three games BYU has faced....WV not a bad team and I actually like the offense for them.....The defense not so much...I think these teams are a bit closer to each other then a full 7 points...I'll take the more tested team in the Cougars who tend to play razor close games.
Marco D'Angelo
Louisville at Marshall
Play: Marshall +26.5
You have heard me say 100's of times no one is as good as their best game nor are they as bad as their worst game. Well folks we have both ends of that saying here. Louisville couldn't possibly look any better than they did last week beating Florida St 63-20. On the flip side to that Marshall couldn't look any worse losing outright 65-38 as 17.5 point favorites. So we are getting a double inflated line here. But be careful as Marshall put up 560 yards of offense in defeat. 446 yards of it was thru the air. Marshall played a sloppy game last week turning the ball over 4 times. One could make the case that Marshall was looking ahead to this game which would be totally understandable. This week it's Louisville that has to be concerned with looking ahead as Louisville has Clemson up next. If Louisville wins that game they are looking at rolling until November 17th when they play Houston where the winner could be playing for the National Championship. After such a big win last week facing a team that got crushed it would be natural for Louisville to look past Marshall. That would be a major mistake. This line is too high and if Louisville isn't 100% focused they will find themselves in a battle. Marshall keeps this close for awhile but Louisville finally puts them away but by only 17.
Harry Bondi
LOUISIANA TECH (+6) over Middle Tennessee State
When these teams last played in Oct. 2015, Louisiana Tech was a 7-point favorite at home and trounced the Blue Raiders, 45-16. We don’t think enough has changed in less than one calendar year for this line to flip 13 points, especially since Middle Tennessee State has allowed 535 rushing yards in the last two weeks. The Bulldogs have covered 7 of their last 9 as a dog and are 10-6 ATS on the road. Take the points!
Robert Ferringo
Syracuse / Connecticut Over 57
This one is kind of a tricky spot for both teams. Especially for Syracuse since they are playing off-surface (on grass) for the first time. The weather is supposed to be fine, but it will be interesting to see how playing outdoors and off the fast-track of the Carrier Dome impacts this group. I know last year it impacted them in that every game on the road went 'over', with Syracuse allowing an average of 44 points per game when they played on the road in ACC contests. The Orange are 11-4 against the total in their last 15 games overall, and now that they are playing in Dino Babers' fast-paced offense I expect that to continue. Connecticut's defense has been significantly weaker this year, allowing 21 points to Maine and 28 to Navy, while the Huskies offense is actually showing some signs of life. Connecticut has been a dead 'under' team over the last several years as they have endured one of the worst sustained offensive stretches in the last quarter-century of college football. But I think that they are due to put some points on the board against one of the weakest defenses in the game. I actually think both teams will flirt with or surpass 30 points in this game, and I see it going 'over' in what could be a close, high-scoring shootout in the range of 36-30.
Jason Sharpe
Penn State / Michigan Over 59
The perception with these two teams and their head coaches are that they are both low-scoring teams, but that hasn't been the case since the middle of last season. Michigan comes into this game having gone above the total in their last 11 straight games overall, while Penn State has had 7 of their last 8 games go 'over'. The Wolverines are dealing with some injury concerns currently on their vaunted defense, which has made for higher-scoring games so far while Penn State has a better quarterback this year and he's someone most haven't yet heard about. It all adds up for a higher-than-expected scoring game in this one.
Raphael Esparza
Houston / Texas State Over 63
Houston takes their talents to the road Saturday night to the Bobcat Stadium in Texas, and we should see tons of points scored in this game. I know that Houston last three games have all gone under, but Saturday night I see a scorefest and the Cougars will have no problem scoring on the road. Houston is averaging 38.3 points per game, and the Texas St defense is giving up an average of 48 points per game. We are hoping the Bobcats can score more points Saturday then they did last Saturday. Houston most likely will be winning this game by double-digits by halftime, and I see the Bobcats scoring junk touchdowns in the late second half to push this total over. Houston is 3-0-1 O/U in their last four games against Sun Belt division teams, and the Texas St Bobcats are 6-1-1 O/U against nonconference games.
Alan Harris
Idaho / UNLV Over 61
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Idaho Vandals hit the road to take on the UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday night. Idaho has posted a 7-1 record to the over in their last eight games following an ATS loss, and they have gone an excellent 11-4 to the over in their last 15 nonconference games. They have also gone 8-2 to the over in their last 10 games following a game where they allowed 40 points or more and they have gone over the total in 37 of their last 54 road games overall. The Rebels have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday night as they posted a perfect 8-0 record to the over in their last eight games where they faced a team with a losing record, and they have gone a lights out 14-2 to the over following a straight up loss by 20 points or more. They have also gone 6-0 to the over in their last six home games, and they have gone up and over the number in 17 of their last 21 games overall. Throw in the fact that these two teams are coming into the game on Saturday following a week where they gave up a combined 100 points to Central Michigan and Washington St., and we'll play the over as we're not sure either team is going to be able to get their defense off the field on Saturday night in Sin City.
Stephen Nover
UNLV -14.5
Each team is 1-2, but that is where the similarities end.
Idaho didn't look good in a lackluster 20-17 victory against Montana State and was blown out 59-14 at Washington and 56-6 at Washington State. The Vandals' offense is down from a year ago while UNLV's defense has improved with more speed and athletic talent.
Things are so bad for the Vandals that they are voluntarily dropping down to FCS status in two years. They don't have the talent and resources to compete.
The arrow is headed the other way for UNLV under second-year head man Tony Sanchez, the Rebels' best coach during the past 30 years.
The Rebels are in a kill spot after consecutive road games against UCLA and Central Michigan. The demoralized Vandals are on the road a third consecutive week.
Sanchez is in the process of building up the Rebels' program and lopsided victories help. UNLV can't - and won't - be screwing around here knowing they have to earn a bowl bid and style points help.
The Rebels have a very good running back, Lexington Thomas, and a strong-armed quarterback Johnny Stanton, who should get his confidence back up facing an Idaho secondary allowing more than 65 percent completions.
The Vandals give up 42.1 points per game, ranking 122nd in the nation in scoring defense and 117th in total defense. Only three of the 128 football bowl subdivision teams give up more rushing yards per game than Idaho. So Thomas - who averages 6.2 yards per carry - should run wild which in turn will make things easier for Stanton to cut loose and improve his accuracy.