Free Picks for Saturday, September 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Marco D'Angelo
Akron vs. Penn St
Play: Akron +35
Penn St will be over priced a lot this year because of the way they finished last year and everyone they have coming back. The problem today is that Penn St has no reason to run the score up on Akron as they have a huge game next week against their rival Pitt. This use to be one of the most heated rivalries in College Football until they suspended the series. Last year they brought it back and Pitt beat Penn St in Pittsburgh. Penn St wants revenge bad as that loss and the Michigan loss is what cost Penn St playing for the National Championship last year. Penn St will keep the offense pretty vanilla this week as not to show any new wrinkles for Pitt to see on tape for their game next week. Akron stays within the 35 here.
Brad Powers
Houston vs. Texas San Antonio
Play: Texas San Antonio +14½
We have a classic case of one team being overrated and overvalued in the market place taking on a team that is being underrated and undervalued in the market place.
Let's first start with Houston. When it comes the Cougars, the first thing that probably comes to mind is Houston crushing Oklahoma in last year's season opener and doing the same vs Louisville in November. The reality is this is a team that was 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games and was an underachiever in 2016. This year's team has a new head coach in Major Applewhite who did coach the team in the blowout loss to San Diego State in the Las Vegas Bowl. There could be some growing pains early as last year's head coach Tom Herman was a superstar. The Cougars must also replace one of the best players in school history in QB Greg Ward, Jr but do bring in a Texas A&M transfer in Kyle Allen at QB (former 5-star).
On the other side we have a UTSA team that I expect will continue to get better in Frank Wilson's second season as head coach. UTSA was a big disappointment in both 2014 and 2015 (combined 9-15 ATS) and they struggled early on in 2016. However, the Roadrunners finished the season on a 5-1 ATS run and actually beat the spread by an average of 8.5 ppg in 2016, the 3rd best mark in the FBS. This year's team has 14 returning starters and there will not be an intimidation factor here. Keep in mind, UTSA last year nearly beat Arizona State outright as 3-TD underdogs losing by only 4 and then only lost to Texas A&M by 13. In addition to that the Roadrunners pulled a pair of outright upsets as 2-TD plus underdogs.
As far as my power ratings go, I have Houston around 12 points better than UTSA on a neutral field and when you factor in the 3-point home edge for what should be a loud Alamo Dome, this line should be closer to 10, not 14.5. Add it all up and there is some early value in Week 1 CFB on UTSA!
Dave Cokin
Ball St vs. Illinois
Play: Ball St +7
Several factors have pushed Ball State into the play on column for me as they take on Illinois. First, the Cardinals fit a few arrow up indicators based on a variety of factors.
I tend to like MAC teams as road dogs in what would qualify as winnable games against Big Ten opposition. These games always matter more than any others to MAC teams, and all reports are that Ball State is really excited about this trip to Illinois.
As for the Illini, they’re going to be very young this season, and Lovie Smith’s team certainly looks to be at least another year away from being even reasonably good.
This is also a pros vs. joes duel, with the public firing a large percentage of the tickets on the favorite, but the sharp action clearly on the Cardinals. Figures as a close game, and at a TD or better, Ball State is worth backing.
Jason Sharpe
Michigan (-3.5) over Florida
Most folks have forgotten just how good the Michigan Wolverines were last year in Jim Harbaugh's second year at the school as they lost 3 games by a total of just 5 combined points. The Wolverines were a solid 10 points better than this Florida squad during the 2016 regular season, and at times it may have been as high as 14 points. The spread has moved a full touchdown during this offseason because of all the talk centering on how much Michigan lost from last year's squad. The one big thing missing, though, from that is the Wolverines still return a very high number of players with experience overall with 55 letterman back, which is actually 6 more players than the Gators. Florida is also down a handful of guys due to suspension as well. Michigan also has another key factor in their corner here; they have the better and more experienced quarterback, which usually looms large in a Week 1 college football game. These two coaches squared off against each other back in their first seasons at their respective schools in 2015, and Michigan rocked the Gators in that bowl game by a 41-7 score. The Wolverines under Harbaugh also have had better overall recruiting classes than Florida, so the young talent is in their favor as well. Added all up and Michigan is the superior of these two teams. Take Michigan minus the points in this one!
Raphael Esparza
UTEP at Oklahoma
Play: Over 62
This game reminds me of the Stanford versus Rice game last Saturday, and that game flew over the total. On Saturday late afternoon I see this game flying over. Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium should see tons of points scored on Saturday, and the last time we saw UTEP play they threw up 52 points against North Texas. Oklahoma will win this game, and I see both teams scoring. It wouldn't shock me to see the UTEP Miners scoring in the low 20s and the OU offense scoring more than 40 points.
Strike Point Sports
Florida State (+7) over Alabama
Typically Alabama is the play in these early-season games, but not this year. This Florida State team has the defensive capabilities to keep this game close. This has a low-scoring feel to it, and the points will be key. Do we see Florida State winning this game outright? No, but we do see them giving Bama all they can handle. The funny thing about this game is when it is being played...If this was a game at the end of the season instead of Week 1, I would give the nod to FSU to win outright, but not coming out of the summer. I really don't see either offense shocking the audience with high-profile passing games and trick plays. This is going to be a smash mouth football game where both teams try to control the clock and take care of the ball. This will be an entertaining game due to the two teams that are playing and their past accomplishments. But overall it will be your typical "hard nosed" type football game. If you substituted this game with two different teams in the end, we wouldn't be too impressed with the style of play you are going to see. But because it's Bama and FSU we will all be watching. Take the points as Bama wins 23-20.
Joe Everett
Boston College at Northern Illinois
Play: Under 52
Steve Addazio runs an NFL style defense with players like All-American defensive end Harold Landry (1st round talent) and senior linebacker Connor Strachan who led the team in tackles last year. Second year defensive coordinator Jim Reid runs a 4-3 defense with a lot of Oklahoma looks and line stunts to keep offensive linemen on their toes. The Eagles will get a Northern Illinois team that lost their leading passer, leading rusher and leading 1,000-yard receiver (Kenny Golladay) from last season. The Huskies are returning first team All-MAC offensive tackle Max Scharping and senior runningback Jordan Huff did manage 6.3 yards per carry last year but they have no proven passing game.
NIU will be playing right into the strength of Boston College’s defense and that’s their front seven, which held opponents to 109 rushing yards per game and just 25 points a clip. The Huskies defense returns seven starters, they have 30 returning lettermen on that side of the ball and their entire secondary from last year is back intact. Northern Illinois was a poor rushing defense, so pounding the rock will be exactly what the Eagles will look to do with both of their leading rushers back from last year as well as four returning starters on the offensive line. BC has an unproven quarterback in Darius Wade and their passing game is likely to be non-existent again this year.
The last meeting between these two schools was a 17-14 Boston College win at Chestnut Hill and that was a Northern Illinois team that ended up averaging 31.1 points per game in 2015. This total opened up as low as 47 points and has done nothing but go up to 52 and 51½ at the moment. With two teams that lack a passing attack and the slow plodding pace of Boston College likely to rub off on the Huskies here, the UNDER is a quality look featuring two suspect quarterbacks in what should be a final score in the 23-17 range for an Eagles’ win.
Joe Everett
Maryland at Texas
Play: Over 56
DJ Durkin has given this Maryland program a real shot in the arm and they are returning some star power on offense with runningback Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison who averaged 9.1 ypc and 7.1 ypc respectively. The duo combined for 1,637 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns and are both breakaway threats. Their leading receiver DJ Moore is back and they have a stud guard in Damian Prince. In their way is a Longhorns defense that allowed 31.5 points per game last year and although Texas is returning ten starters on defense, they will be changing schemes to 3-4 and 3-3-5 looks this year under new defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. The Longhorns have NFL talent on defense in junior linebacker Malik Jefferson but they are a defense that has given up an average of more than 200 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons.
Despite DJ Durkin being a defensive coach and a former collegiate defensive end, the Maryland defense gave up 29.5 points per game and they were terrible against the run with 215 yards on the ground a game allowed. The Longhorns ran a spread option offense last year and will be more of the same under Tom Herman with a ton of talent up front, namely 1st team All American Connor Williams at left tackle. Their biggest sleeper on the team might be wide receiver Collin Johnson, who is a 6’6” big play threat capable of out jumping anybody on the field. They return sophomore quarterback Shane Buechele and while they may lose a 2,000-yard runningback in D’Onta Foreman, they still have a very talented ball carrier in Chris Warren to take his place.
Both of these teams will have success sustaining drives on the ground as well as through the air, the Longhorns averaged 85.5 offensive plays per game last year (Houston averaged 85.3) and Texas should be able to score at will considering Tom Herman’s track record of lighting up scoreboards. The Terps have scored 50 or more points in their last three season openers and they are likely to surprise the Longhorns with a few early scores here, turning this thing into a boat race by the end of the third quarter. We’re looking for a 44-23 type of final with Texas coming out on top to start up our Saturday.
South Carolina at North Carolina St
Play: Under 52.5
The Gamecocks offense sputtered for most of the 2016 season until Will Muschamp took the redshirt off of Jake Bentley and South Carolina went on to win four of their last six in the regular season. This offense has their top rusher, passer and their top five receivers back to go along with 98 career starts on the offensive line but this is still a group that averaged 20.8 points per game last year. The issue will be a North Carolina State defense that returns three of their top four tacklers and features one of the nation’s best defensive lines led by future Top-100 NFL Draft pick Bradley Chubb at defensive end.
The Wolfpack has nine starters back on offense, including Ryan Finley at quarterback, and they have four returning starters on the offensive line but this is a group that does not run the ball well and just lost their leading rusher Matt Dayes to the NFL. Will Muschamp is a defensive minded coach, the Gamecocks are returning their top two tacklers and linebacker Skai Moore is back after missing all of last season to an injury. South Carolina has three seniors in the secondary that are returning starters and they held opponents to just 209 passing yards per game last year, which should help limit what Ryan Finley and the Wolfpack passing attack can do.
The forecast for Saturday in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium is calling for heavy thunderstorms throughout the day, so the start of this game could be delayed but most importantly, look for this line to drop as kickoff approaches and the potential weather issues become more evident. Expect these two teams to start out slow and struggle to move the ball in a sloppy first half, with the NC State defensive line setting the tone in what should be a low scoring 20-17/24-20 final in a tough slobber knocker of a game.
Florida St vs Alabama
Play: Over 49.5
While most folks will be playing a side in this game, we’re all over a total that should be in the high fifty point range with two returning starters at quarterback who are both mobile passers with weapons all around them. Sure, the Florida State defense is littered with future NFL players namely All-World safety Derwin James, first team All-American cornerback Tarvarus McFadden and defensive ends Josh Sweat and Brian Burns but we are looking at an Alabama offense that has a stable of NFL-level runningbacks, three returning starters on the offensive line and a two time All-SEC receiver in junior Calvin Ridley. Alabama is breaking in a brand new offensive coordinator in Brian Daboll, so expect the Tide to line up in more pro style sets and feature their talented backfield with a ton of play action involving Jalen Hurts keepers on the run.
The Seminoles are up against a Crimson Tide squad that scored fifteen defensive touchdowns but Alabama had seven defenders that were selected in the NFL Draft (All in the top four rounds) and six of them were starters. Florida State has their work cut out for them but this Seminoles’ offense really discovered something last season and that’s getting to more read option looks and incorporating Deondre Francois as a featured runner. One of their most effective plays at the end of last season was a zone read QB keeper off edge that resulted in the halfback lead blocking for Francois, so I would expect to see a lot of that with two big backs in freshman Cam Akers (213 lbs) and junior Jacques Patrick (231 lbs). The Seminoles return two NFL prospects at wide receiver in Auden Tate and Nyqwan Murray to go along with three returning starters on the offensive line. Tate is a big bodied receiver that compares favorably to a Brandon Marshall type and “Noonie” Murray ended up leading the team in receiving touchdowns the last six games of 2016.
There’s just too much talent on the field for both of these offenses to fall short of fifty points, as both of these schools averaged well over 35 points per game or more last year and nine of Alabama’s fifteen games last season had 48 or more points scored in them. This number hasn’t moved much from 50½ to 49½ but if it continues to drop, there’s a lot of value in a marquee game that could feature a lot of fireworks.
Stephen Nover
Wyoming vs. Iowa
Play: Over 49
The oddsmaker has set this total too short. Wyoming is going to get its share of points behind Josh Allen, one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Allen lost some talent around him, but Wyoming's offensive system is in place and Allen has the needed mobility and arm to put up points on a Hawkeyes defense that is tough up front, but inexperienced in the secondary and will be minus suspended cornerback Manny Rugamba. C.J. Beathard has moved to the pros, but the Hawkeyes don't need an ace triggerman against Wyoming with their tremendous rushing attack. Akrum Wadley and James Butler are both excellent runners and they have the advantage of rushing behing one of the top offensive lines in the country. Iowa's offensive line easily will handle Wyoming's rush defense, which is far worse than its secondary, at the point of attack. The Cowboys gave up an average of 42.5 points on the road last season.
Wunderdog
BYU / LSU Under 47
This game was originally scheduled to be played in Houston, but Hurricane Harvey forced a move to the Super Dome in New Orleans. That is great news for the Bayou Bengals, because this will now become a quasi-home game. The Ed Orgeron era has begun at LSU, and there is the usual blend of young and experienced talent. That talent has often manifested itself on defense, but the LSU offense has not thrived. Orgeron has brought in Matt Canada to open up the offense, but this is game one, and it may take a bit before this offense reaches its full potential. BYU finished at 8-4 last season, but may be overrated a bit coming in, as they were +14 in turnovers last season. QB Taysom Hill has moved on, and it is now up to Tanner Magnum. Magnum is a pocket passer, and could face an onslaught here vs. a fierce LSU defense. Without Jamal Williams in the backfield, and no RB returning that averaged more than 4.3 yards per carry, it is going to be a stiff challenge, as unlike Hill, Magnum is not a runner. BYU is going to be challenged to put points on the board and a new-system LSU offense may not be ready to meet expectations in Game 1.
Rob Veno
Calfornia at North Carolina
Play: Under 55
The overhaul at California is enormous. The Golden Bears have a new Head Coach in Justin Wilcox who is defensive minded which is the polar opposite of his predecessor Sonny Dykes. There is a new offensive system which is an up-tempo “spread” but very different from the “Bear Raid” employed here the past four seasons. Ex-Eastern Washington OC Beau Baldwin’s scheme is far more multiple and unlike the prior offense run here, it comes with a complex playbook. On the other side of the ball, Cal has scrapped the 4-3 in favor of defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter’s 3-4 alignment. The switch brings position changes, new assignments and the possibility that the talent on hand doesn’t completely fit the way it will down the road after a couple of more recruiting classes. While on paper 2017 does not look to be a great defensive season for California, it likely can’t be worse that the last four seasons where it allowed an average of 503 total yards per game.
North Carolina’s season outlook is dampened by heavy personnel losses to their prolific offense which leaves them without 98.6% of their 2016 passing yards, 97.6% of their rushing yards, 73.5% of their receptions and 71.8% of their receiving yards. An already unsettled offensive line could be problematic for North Carolina after projected starter Jared Cohen left the team just five days ago. The Tar Heels are expected to have to lean on their defensive unit early on this season while the offense progresses. HC Larry Fedora conceded earlier this week that he may have to slow the tempo down because of all the uncertainty with his offense.
It’s not difficult to agree with the assessment that each of these teams are weakened offensively heading into this season. However, California does return a boatload of skill position talent with game-breaking threats like RB Tre Watson and WR Melquise Stovall. The question for each side is how will their new QB perform in week #1. A huge fundamental question is how will the North Carolina defense handle the Cal offense which has no tape to study from and dissect. Cal will have to deal with UNC’s two-headed QB with no tape of either Brandon Harris (LSU transfer) or redshirt freshman Chaz Surratt running this offense. The upheaval for each of these teams loudly screamed under 66 when the opener was posted and with all the mid to lower 50’s key numbers still good, there’s enough reason to keep playing it.
Freddy Wills
Wyoming vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -11½
Wyoming was on my list as one of the more fortunate teams a year ago and definitely were over achievers. With all of the success comes a little hype especially when you have a QB that will be drafted in Josh Allen, but I’m not buying into the hype right now. Wyoming lost their best player in RB Brian Hill who is the all-time leading rusher at Wyoming. This game is also on the road. Wyoming owns an exceptional advantage when they are at home, but on the road against a Big Ten foe I don’t see them being able to stay with a very physical Iowa team.
Iowa has to replace their starting QB in CJ Beathard, but I don’t think that is a big deal as Beathard had a 122 QBR. This team’s strength is on defense and in the running game. Speaking of the running game they return their top rusher in Akrum Wadley who averaged 6.4 ypc last year and they add a late transfer from Nevada in James Butler who has over 3,000 career rushing yards. Iowa always has a top offensive line. Their head coach Kirk Ferentz coached offensive lines in the NFL, and he returns 99 total starts their most in a few years
DAVE COKIN
MIAMI OHIO AT MARSHALL
PLAY: MIAMI OHIO +2.5
2016 was a tale of two seasons for Miami Ohio. The downtrodden RedHawks were slogging along at 0-6 and destined for another bad season. And then it happened. Down 14-3 against Kent State, Miami came alive with a nice comeback win, capped off by a last minute TD and took off with a stirring late season 6-0 hot streak. Miami then just missed getting the upset over Mississippi State in a bowl game.
The RedHawks enter the new season with tremendous momentum and confidence. They also have loads of experience as they have nearly all their key guys back from last season. This team has a legit chance to be a contender in the MAC and I think they’re great bets to go bowling again at the very least.
Marshall endured a nightmare of a 2016 season. The Thundering Herd beat Morgan State to start the campaign, and were looking great with a 21-7 lead against Akron while driving for another score. And then it happened. Quarterback Chase Litton got absolutely obliterated by one of the Zips, a fumble and Akron TD ensued, and the entire game and season turned on that one play. I don’t want to turn this into a really lengthy analysis, but perhaps the worst coaching decision of the entire season was then made by Herd HC Doc Holliday. Incredibly, despite the fact Litton was knocked silly on the aforementioned play, Holliday left him in the game. He predictably fell apart, and when the carnage ended, Akron had a 65-38 win.
I wanted to mention this incident specifically as Holliday impressed me as a complete idiot in that game. Litton should never have seen the field after the bellringer hit he absorbed. In fact, to the surprise of what should have been absolutely no one, he suffered a concussion and had to sit out the next week’s game. The fact Holliday was evidently oblivious to even a minimal regard for player safety was very troubling to me.
We’ll never know for sure what impact that had on the overall Marshall season, but I don’t think it’s a coincidence the team was useless the rest of the season.
As for the 2017 Thundering Herd, they should be much better and on paper, this team could be among the most improved in the nation. But after the debacle that took place last season, there’s now some real heat on the coaching staff and an early loss to Miami could be bad news for Herd fans expecting a rebound campaign.
I’m one who needs to be convinced. While I’m not going to be shocked if Marshall wins this game and goes on to put together a good season, put me in the seeing before believing category. My numbers make the RedHawks the right side in this game, and I’ll be looking to take the available points with Miami Ohio.
Ray Monohan
Louisville vs. Purdue
Play: Over 67½
One important thing to look at here is how Louisville is going to pick apart the Boilermakers defense. The Cardinals had one of the most prolific offenses in the NCAA last season.
QB Lamar Jackson is extremely explosive and will pick apart this Purdue defense, that is extremely young and inexperienced.
On top of that, we saw the Boilermakers pick up some offense steam last year, especially down the stretch. They'll get a Cardinals defense that is very vulnerable in the secondary and as big underdogs here, they know they'll have to take chances down field if they hope to pull off the upset.
Some trends to note. Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games in September. Over is 9-3 in Cardinals last 12 games on fieldturf.
Expect a high powered, high scoring affair here.