Scott Spreitzer
Vanderbilt vs. Middle Tennessee St
Play: Vanderbilt -3
The line has dropped quite a bit and the value lies with the SEC entry. While Vandy will be better through the air in 2017 than it was a season ago, I fully expect the Commodores to be run-heavy in this one. The SEC entry had no trouble up front against MTSU in last year's 47-24 win, rushing for more than 230 yards. We respect MTSU QB Brent Stockstill and the Blue Raiders' offensive attack, but Vandy should be able to move the chains and control the clock by pounding the ball right at the heart of the defense again. The 'Dores own one of their best skill groups in quite some time and we believe play-action will work well, set-up by ground game success early-on. Vandy looks to extend their covering streak to five against C-USA, which would take them to 11-1 ATS in their last 12 against this conference.
Jesse Schule
Maryland vs. Texas
Play: Texas -18½
The Longhorns really underachieved last year, losing seven of 12 games. Five of those seven losses came by a TD or less. The Horns had back to back Top 10 recruiting classes under Charlie Strong, and they are returning most of their talent from last season. When Charlie Strong left Texas, he said: "Whoever coaches Texas next year will win 10 games". That was before they hired Tom Herman, who was 22-4 at Houston, and 6-0 against Top 25 teams. The Horns will play Maryland in their season opener, and I expect this game to be a blowout. Maryland might expect to be better this year, but they'd have to be an awful lot better in order to compete with a ranked team on the road. The Terrapins faced three ranked teams last year, losing all three of those games by at least three TDs. I actually like Texas as a longshot to win the BIG12 this year, and wouldn't be surprised if they emerge as a playoff contender.
Ian Cameron
Temple at Notre Dame
Play: Temple +18.5
We have seen heavy Notre Dame support in the betting markets with this line up from the opener of -11 to -18/-18.5 at most sportsbooks. There is no doubt Temple faces its share of challenges following last season’s fantastic output in which the Owls were the top pointspread team in the nation and won the AAC. Matt Rhule departed for Baylor and as a result, the Owls have a new head coach in Geoff Collins who was the former DC at Florida. Temple will be installing new systems and schemes on both sides of the football and they must replace their former starting quarterback Phillip Walker. Walker was erratic more times than not so his departure isn’t significant. But there is uncertainty at the position heading into the opener (a starter has yet to be named) although it appears that sophomore Logan Marchi has the inside track at the job. Whoever starts will not be devoid of pieces around him as Temple returns three starters on the offensive line, boasts one of the top receiving groups in the AAC, and features solid running back Ryquell Armstead. The defense is in decent shape despite all the personnel and coaching changes. The Owls welcome back three quality starters in the secondary though the pass rush could be lacking after Haason Reddick’s departure to the NFL along with a couple key players.
Temple going on the road to face a marquee foe with a lot of changes isn’t easy but Notre Dame has plenty of question marks of its own. Notre Dame will have a new starting quarterback in Brandon Wimbush and will also be installing new systems with Memphis’ Chip Long taking over as OC and Mike Elko takes over the reins as DC after a stint at Wake Forest. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly went a long way to upgrade the talent on defense and that group should gradually improve but with coordinator changes and scheme changes on both sides of the ball, there could be some growing pains early. Kelly is on the hot seat and the pressure is on to perform and I’m not necessarily excited about backing teams and specifically coaches in that kind of spot in the first week of the season. Temple is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games and 10-1 ATS over the last three seasons as an underdog. Notre Dame is just 19-28 ATS as home favorites since 2007. I need to see a strong performance on both sides of the ball from Notre Dame before I can back them in this price range. In the end, I’ll grab Temple plus the points at a generous number.
The Prez
Temple at Notre Dame
Play: Temple +19
College Football bettors will find a plethora of online designer formulas and team matchup tidbits that claim to have a grasp on betting markets and the early and even overnight lines in the college ranks. One of the most written about programs this summer has been the theories on how the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will respond to their disastrous 2016 campaign.""
It is difficult to imagine that Notre Dame (-18, 54) won't improve off their 4-8 record a season ago but with new coordinators on both sides of the ball the Irish should be expected to be a work in progress as 2017 progresses and the school has a challenging Week #1 game versus the Temple Owls.
The Irish enter Week #1 as three possession favorites over the visiting Owls representing yet another sportsbook spread that involving Notre Dame that ultimately favors the visitors plus the points against the publicly backed traditional football power.
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly and his squad have undergone a large number of team and scheme changes this offseason.
Temple comes off a successful run in the American Athletic Conference under the guidance of head coach Matt Rhule who has departed for the Big 12 Baylor Bears.
The Owls are under the direction of new head coach Geoff Collins and the situation for the new Temple bench boss couldn't be better in the school's season opener.
While most college football pundits are projecting that the Irish will be an explosive offense with outrageous team speed they open the 2017 campaign against a very good Owls defense.
The 2016 Owls finished third in the nation in overall total defense that included a Top-10 team scoring defense. The unit did lose key front man Haason Reddick but bring an experienced and talented secondary to South Bend for Saturday afternoon's contest.
It is important to note that that Kelly's offense isn't going to resemble that of the 2016 Fighting Irish. Kelly and his crew were rarely on the same page and in a nutshell the head coach failed in his play calling duties. OC Chip Long taking over the offense and Notre Dame will largely depend on outrunning the opposition, not overpowering them, led by field general QB Brandon Wimbush who doesn't necessarily have the bottom line skill set to play fast.
While it is realistic to believe that Kelly's new coordinators and the player personnel will eventually find their rhythm it is also reasonable to believe that won't happen in Week #1, especially if the team approach Temple with a limited game plan.
With the Georgia Bulldogs on deck for the Irish - followed by three road tests in four weeks and then having a tough affair versus the USC Trojans - Notre Dame then has tilts versus Miami and Stanford in the latter stages of the regular season. This Week #1 affair against what is presumed to be a team rebuild for Temple one shouldn't expect Kelly to bring out the entirety of the team's new playbook.
The Prez
Michigan Under 9 Season Wins
As the Michigan Wolverines fall football camp approaches it isn't a difficult evaluation to realistically access that the oddsmakers Michigan win total and their projected success this season, in relation to the squad's 2017 Regular Season Wins Total that WestGate has published, is over-valued.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said that redshirt senior QB Wilton Speight has not yet earned the starting quarterback job for the 2017 season.
Is this just coach-speak?
There are a large number of College Football pundits that believe Speight is NFL ready. The competition is legitimately tight according to the Wolverines' head coach. Harbaugh told the local media recently that Speight "went through competition throughout the spring, went through 15 practices and it [competition] was a dead heat." He went on in the interview to verbalize that it would take around 8-15 practices in camp before the competition has a name at the top of the depth chart." Speight is competing against John O'Korn and Brandon Peters.
There is little doubt that Harbaugh has numerous talent and it is a given that he and his staff can recruit as effectively as any school in the college ranks. However, there is a total of just six starters back from last year's team with only one of those being on defense.
Michigan lost 10 starters from last season's No #1 ranked defensive unit, including Heisman finalist Jabrill Peppers, captain Chris Wormley, cover corner Jourdan Lewis and defensive line stalwart Taco Charlton. Defensive coordinator Don Brown has his work cut out for him if he plans on equaling last year's season ending statistics yet alone improving on the unit’s 2016 performance.
Can Brown's heavy blitzing scheme succeed with so many inexperienced starters in 2017?
Offensively, Michigan is in a better equipped to succeed than the defense, when comparing the two units to the 2017 player personnel. While the offense lost five starters from the 2016 unit Harbaugh and his coaching staff offered a large number of snaps to the young player core a year ago. However, one should expect that the offense will experience their share of high's and low's this season. The only significant skilled players to return on offense are Speight and running back Chris Evans. All things being equal Speight hasn't even been named the starter, yet, and whomever is the starting signal caller in Week #1 versus Florida will have all new receivers as Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson and Jake Butt departed for the NFL.
Michigan boasts plenty of young talent but with arguably their most important season defining game coming in Week #1 against the Florida Gators at Texas Stadium it isn't a stretch to foresee growing pains on both sides of the ball in the team's campaign opener. Road exams for the Wolverines this season, Florida in Texas and Penn State at Happy Valley are twp events in which Michigan should be underdogs. This 2017 Harbaugh squad does get Ohio State at home but the Big House alone won't be enough to make Michigan the oddsmakers choice in this contest if Ohio State is who they are projected to be in late November.
With 2017 affairs against quality opponents in Florida, Penn State and Wisconsin away from home and Cincinnati, Michigan State and Ohio State at the Big House, each and every Saturday game will be mission critical to where Michigan is playing in January.
Beat the Gators in Arlington on the first Saturday of September and this team has a chance to win nine games this season, which would currently be a push on the SuperBook College Football 2017 Regular Season Wins chart. Fail to earn a "W" in the season opener versus a good Florida defense and winning nine game in 2017 is a long shot.
At best, this 2017 Michigan group looks like a team that will finish 8–4.
Otto Sports
Nevada at Northwestern
Play: Northwestern -24
Nevada has been in steady decline since the departure of of longtime head coach Chris Ault. Brian Polian managed to take the Wolf Pack to two bowl games but make no mistake, he wasn't going to take the program to Ault-like levels. And it'll be a tall task for first-year head coach Jay Norvell as well. Norvell inherits a squad that was far worse than its 5-7/3-5 record a season ago. Playing in the far weaker MWC West Division, the Wolf Pack were outgained by 1.4 ypp in league play. As for this year's squad, there are 43 new players that must digest completely new systems on both sides of the ball. One such "system" will be the famed/doomed "Air Raid" offense. Offensive coordinator Matt Mumme, son of Hal, says he wants to run 85-90 plays per game. That's a dangerous recipe for a squad that still doesn't have a clear cut starter at quarterback, lost it's top running back, and projects to have one of the weakest defenses in the country. And they'll take their act on the road for a Week 1 game against what projects to be a Big Ten West contender in Northwestern.
The Wildcats return virtually every player from last year's 7-6 squad. Report indicate this could be Pat Fitzgerald's most talented team. The issue some bettors may have is that Northwestern doesn't have much of any pedigree laying and winning by this type of margin. In 2016, their highest price tag was -16.5 and they managed to win only one game (at Purdue) by more than 24 points. Similar situation the year before that; -17.5 and one win (27-0 vs. Minnesota) by margin vs. FBS competition. But my attention is focused far more on Nevada's likely struggles than Northwestern's pedigree as a favorite. Note that last season, in three games against Notre Dame, Purdue, and San Diego State, the Wolf Pack were outgained by over 600 yards and that was in the fourth year of coaching staff with systems in place. Now with a "new everything" it very reasonable to think that type of statistical discrepancy will continue and even worsen against better competition. We're laying the points with the home side in this matchup.
Drew Martin
Appalachian St at Georgia
Play: Georgia -14.5
A lot of respect being thrown Appalachian State's way with Saturday's pointspread a full touchdown less than last year's Week 1 game at Tennessee. Of course, the Mountaineers nearly pulled the upset as the Vols were lucky to get away with a 20-13 overtime win.
While I don't necessarily have Appalachian State on my list of "bet against" teams to start the season, Georgia certainly qualifies as "bet on." The Bulldogs return starting quarterback Jacob Eason who is primed to be one of the better signal callers in the SEC. Aiding in that progression is a plethora of skill position talent. Last season, Georgia averaged a modest 24.5 ppg. I project them to increase their scoring average by 4-5 points.
But more important is UGA's defense which has a chance to be an elite-level unit with as many as 10 returning starters including their entire defensive line. And the opportunity is there for them to put the clamps on Appalachian State's offense. Over the last three seasons, against power conference foes Tennessee, Miami, Clemson and Michigan, the Mountaineers averaged 11.8 ppg and never surpassed two touchdowns.
Appalachian State has a handful of SEC-caliber players but Georgia is loaded this year on both sides of the ball and with an above average defense and the potential to be much improved offensively, this price is one worth laying.
Andrew Lange
Troy vs. Boise State
Play:Boise St -10.5
You likely don't think of the concept "buy low" when it comes to the Boise State Broncos; a team that despite not playing in a power conference has enamored bettors for years. And who can forget the old standby of betting Boise on the "Smurf Turf" no matter what the pointspread? Those days are seemingly over as the Broncos haven't covered a home game in their last eight tries dating back to 2015. And projections for this year are as low as they have been in over a decade as Boise is lined at only 8 wins; the same as MWC up-and-comer Colorado State. But despite last year's "disappointing" 10-win output and even more alarming 3-10 ATS record, their ability to dominate a majority of their opponents should remain. Keep in mind, playing in the far tougher MWC Mountain Division last year, Boise still outgained teams by over 1.5 ypp. Their biggest issue was an outlier -9 turnover margin; +9, +7, +3, +20, and +8 the previous five seasons.
And while oddsmakers and bettors have cooled on Boise State, the opposite rings true for Troy who popped for 10 wins in head coach Neal Brown's second season. Last year's highlight for the Trojans was a Week 2 30-24 loss at eventual National Champion Clemson. But a closer look suggests Troy wasn't as dominant as its straight up record indicated. For starters, despite jumping from 4 wins to 10 wins, the Trojans still had a losing spread record (6-7). Statistically, in the ultra-weak Sun Belt, Troy outgained its opponents by a very modest 0.53 ypp. And unlike Boise, they were the benefactors of a +10 turnover margin after producing a positive mark only once (+4) the prior seven seasons.
While "spot plays" rarely if even exist in Week 1, I see this as a very favorable one for Boise after the way it closed out last season with back-to-back losses to Air Force and Baylor. The Broncos are primed to make a statement and have the pedigree and talent edge to do so against a solid but perhaps slightly overrated road squad.
Power Sports
Appalachian St vs. Georgia
Pick: Georgia -14
Many will gravitate toward the trendy underdog Applachian State Saturday evening, but I will not be one of them as the Mountaineers (Sun Belt favorites) are getting a little bit "too much" respect from the marketplace in my estimation. Some of that is probably based on the fact they took Tennessee to overtime (in Rocky Top) in last year's season opener. But this venture "between the Hedges" should prove to be more difficult as UGA isn't nearly as overrated as the Vols were going into LY and the Dawgs have plenty of experience back for 2017.
Kirby Smart has 17 returning starters, 10 on defense, for his second year in Athens. Last year saw Georgia go 8-5 SU with three of the losses coming by a field goal or less (two by 1 pt!). This year's squad is my call to win the SEC East. The offense should be A LOT better than last year w/ the combo of QB Eason and RB Chubb returning. The defense took a step back last year, allowing 24.0 PPG (allowed just 16.9 in '15), but as mentioned above, there's 10 starters back this year and the unit should be much improved.
Saturday will mark the 10-year anniversary of ASU's most famous win, over Michigan at the Big House. No one saw that one coming, but UGA will certainly be taking the Mountaineers more seriously than the Wolverines did a decade ago. I think it's telling that the oddsmakers let the number pass through a two TD spread. Yes, ASU is 27-5 SU its last 32 games overall, but they have also lost their last seven road games to Power 5 opponents - by an average of 33 PPG!
Teddy Covers
BYU / LSU Over 47
LSU’s offense crashed and burned repeatedly throughout the Les Miles era in Baton Rouge. Their skill position talent was just fine, loaded with NFL prospects at WR, RB and on the offensive line. But the execution was rarely there, hence the Tigers finishing the 2016 campaign by averaging less than 30 points per game for the second time in the previous three seasons and the fourth time in the last seven years.
We can expect the Tigers new offense, under first year coordinator Matt Canada to look quite different than last year’s version. They’ll be running some triple option with QB Danny Etling, but they’ll also be taking downfield shots in the passing game on a consistent basis. How about this quote from senior starting left tackle KJ Malone: “I can see how it’s hard for a defense to game plan around it, just because you don’t know who’s going to get the ball. I’ve been with the offense through the spring, and I still don’t know who’s going to get the ball sometimes.”
Or how about this quote, from staring linebacker Devin White: “It’s the hardest thing to defend in the world. You’ve got so much different movements going on. You can say it’s option. He’s got options to run and pass in same play. It’s hard. They know what they’re doing, but I don’t know what they’re doing. That’s the glory of it.”
BYU’s defense is not loaded with speed, and they’ve not no film to analyze to break down the new LSU offense. The Cougars lost three starters from their defensive line to graduation, and the secondary, on paper, looks spotty at best. Playing on the fast track of the Superdome, don’t be shocked in the slightest if the Tigers approach this total all by themselves.
But BYU can put some points on the board themselves, working out the kinks after last week’s sluggish opener, managing only 13 first downs against 1-AA Portland St. Head coach Kilane Sitake certainly isn’t panicking: “Obviously, I wish we should have played differently and not made so many mistakes, but I know what our coaches are capable of and I know what our players are capable of. If we had played our best game and the same result would have happened, I would have been grateful for the win, but I would have been a little nervous about how good we are.”
Cougars starting QB Tanner Mangum led the team to nine wins as a freshman, but lost his starting job when senior QB Taysom Hill returned for the 2016 campaign. Mangum has NFL caliber arm strength, primed to make enough plays in the passing game here to send this game Over the total.
MMA OddsBreaker
Felipe Silva v Mairbek Taisumov
Pick: Felipe Silva +210
Silva will be returning to the Octagon from an extended layoff following a first round knockout of Shane Campbell in his promotional debut, which came a year ago. He will be looking to extend his unbeaten professional mixed martial arts record to 9-0 with an impressive victory over Taisumov, who will unquestionably be his stiffest test to date. The Dagestani has a 25-5 pro MMA record and is 5-1 in the UFC, currently enjoying a four fight winning streak with all victories coming by way of T/KO. Much like his counterpart, he is returning from an extended layoff and has not seen action in more than a year. I think this is a close fight in the UFC’s 155-pound division, and at the current odds, I favor the +210 underdog Silva for a value play. Taisumov is a talented and vicious striker, as is evident by his current four-fight T/KO streak, however I think the Brazilian is capable of outstriking him in this contest. I would not be surprised to see Silva pull off the T/KO here, but I think he is more likely to pull of the upset on the judges’ scorecards. At the current price, I think he is the right side for a play.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Wyoming +12
The Hawkeyes, for the 2nd consecutive year, enter the new season with the weight of a bowl embarrassment hanging over their heads. In the 2015 Rose Bowl they losst 45-16, to Stanford, and in the 2016 Outback Bowl they lost 30-3, to Florida (23 & 24 point spread losses). A year ago, this one would have seemed like a very easy to start the season, but the Cowboys have suddenly become formidable, averaging 37.7 points per game in their last 9 games. Iowa's attack was horrible as they came in a ranked #121 in total offense. The Hawkeye defense however was another matter as they ranked #23, but with Iowa State up next on the schedule, Iowa may have to be at its best and just put this one on cruise control.
MARC LAWRENCE
Troy vs. Boise State
Play: Troy +10½
Edges - Trojans: 5-2 ATS as dogs in season opener; and 8-4 ATS as double-digit dogs in non-conference games… Broncos: 5-12 ATS home under head coach Bryan Harsin, including 0-9 ATS the last nine… With Boise State just 1-5 ATS in games before battling PAC-12 foes (at Washington State next week), and the Trojans loaded with 10 returning starters on offense and arguably the best team in the Sun Belt Conference this season, we recommend a 1* play on Troy.
Power Sports
Appalachian St vs. Georgia
Pick: Georgia -14
Many will gravitate toward the trendy underdog Applachian State Saturday evening, but I will not be one of them as the Mountaineers (Sun Belt favorites) are getting a little bit "too much" respect from the marketplace in my estimation. Some of that is probably based on the fact they took Tennessee to overtime (in Rocky Top) in last year's season opener. But this venture "between the Hedges" should prove to be more difficult as UGA isn't nearly as overrated as the Vols were going into LY and the Dawgs have plenty of experience back for 2017.
Kirby Smart has 17 returning starters, 10 on defense, for his second year in Athens. Last year saw Georgia go 8-5 SU with three of the losses coming by a field goal or less (two by 1 pt!). This year's squad is my call to win the SEC East. The offense should be A LOT better than last year w/ the combo of QB Eason and RB Chubb returning. The defense took a step back last year, allowing 24.0 PPG (allowed just 16.9 in '15), but as mentioned above, there's 10 starters back this year and the unit should be much improved.
Saturday will mark the 10-year anniversary of ASU's most famous win, over Michigan at the Big House. No one saw that one coming, but UGA will certainly be taking the Mountaineers more seriously than the Wolverines did a decade ago. I think it's telling that the oddsmakers let the number pass through a two TD spread. Yes, ASU is 27-5 SU its last 32 games overall, but they have also lost their last seven road games to Power 5 opponents - by an average of 33 PPG!
Jimmy Boyd
Wyoming vs. Iowa
Play: Under 50½
I think the books have set the total too high for Saturday's non-conference action that has Wyoming out of the Mountain West traveling to take on the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes. While a lot of programs are shifting to the more up-tempo attack that has been having so much success in college football, Iowa has continued to run a pro-style attack that is built on grinding out their opponents with the running game and strong defense.
Iowa figures to grind out a lot of possessions this year, as they work in a new starting quarterback. With one of the top offensive lines in the country and a talented senior running back, they should be able to do just that.
Wyoming's defense wasn't great last year, but with 8 starters back I expect head coach Craig Bohl to have his best defense yet, especially when it comes to stopping the run. That's ideal here, as even if Iowa is able to score, they figure to eat up the clock in the process. For those that don't know, Bohl is the guy responsible for turning North Dakota State into the FCS power it is today. He will have this team ready for the Hawkeyes.
As for the Cowboys offense, I think it's a bit overrated coming into the year. That's because fans have heard how their starting QB could be a 1st round pick next year. I watched this team and I think he's got a ways to go before he's starting in the NFL. The hype around him has a lot of people overlooked the loss of running back Brian Hill, who was the star of this offense last year with 1,860 yards and 22 touchdowns. Not to mention Wyoming also has to replace their top 3 receivers.
Iowa has been one of the most consistent teams in the country in fielding a quality defense and this year should be no different with 8 starters back. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team reached 20 points.