Mike Anthony
Wyoming +13
Wyoming has shown a clean and sharp knack for finding their receivers, in their passing game - whoever that may be - C.J. Johnson will be the new guy for Wyoming, the 6-2 WR is ready to open it up. With big play ability and 148 YDs and 2 TDs over the last 4 games from last season - the DBs of Iowa aren't going to stop it from happening for the youngster. Wyoming's experienced defense can force some ugly TO's, and even the unforced ones that look like they are going to be big plays in the game. Iowa has not been explosive on the offensive side of the ball for some time now. In their last 6 games, from last season, they have put up just 18/ppg and things don't look like they are going to get any easier for them here vs Wyoming. Iowa has dropped more than their share of games with heir guys playing badly on defense - and fell to even lower levels when their Oline hasn't played very well. I think their young inexperienced QB playing under the pressure is going to be very difficult for Iowa here. Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and Wyoming has a solid offensive line and QB to keep this one close throughout.
Brandon Shively
Appalachian State vs. Georgia
Pick: Georgia -14
The Georgia Bulldogs take on a team well known to many, after they knocked off the Michigan Wolverines a while back.
Expect public money to really come in on Appalachian State because of that. However, the Bulldogs are a much more talented team and will really have their way here on both sides of the ball against the Mountaineers.
Georgia returns 17 starters, 10 on the defensive side of the ball and has one of the best RB duos in the SEC. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel both offer a variety of packages as they have breakaway speed and the physicality that can't be matched.
Look for Georgia to really over power this team here, at home, on Saturday. Lay the points.
Jim Feist
Arkansas St at Nebraska
Pick: Over
Arkansas State went 8-5 last season and is strong on offense with a deep backfield and tall targets to throw to. Nebraska runs a pro-style attack on offense for coach Mike Riley. QB Tanner Lee won the starting job with a strong showing in the spring, with WR Stanley Morgan Jr. (33 catches for 453 yards) is the Cornhuskers' top returning receiver. The Cornhuskers were one of only five FBS teams to go 7-0 or better at home last season and have won 19 straight night games in Lincoln, 9-3 over the total in non-conference games.
Will Rogers
Rays at White Sox
Pick: Under 8
The set-up: Tampa's Logan Morrison had a fifth HR in his last five games in Friday’s 3-1 series-opening victory in Chicago over the White Sox last night. He has hit safely in six straight contests, going 11-for-25 with 11 RBI during that stretch. The Rays have now won eight of 11 overall and are 5-2 on their current nine-game road trip as they've moved within three games of Minnesota for the AL’s second wild card spot. Tampa will have a chance to clinch its fourth consecutive series victory when the Rays play again on Saturday against the White Sox. Chicago is just playing out the string, as the White Sox are the owners of the AL's worst record (52-81), a mark better than only the Phillies, in all of MLB.
The pitching matchup: Chris Archer (9-7 & 3.66 ERA) takes the mound for the Rays and Carlos Rodon (2-5 & 4.27 ERA) for the White Sox. Archer held St. Louis to one run on five hits over seven innings in a no-decision last time out. This is nothing new for him. He owns a 2.59 ERA over his last five starts but had just two decisions, going 1-1. Archer has completed at least six innings in 18 of his last 19 outings, while recording 14 quality starts. However, he still hasn't reached double digits in wins for 2017. He is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA against Chicago in his career over six starts (team is 4-2). Rodon allowed five runs over five innings of a 6-3 loss to Detroit last Saturday after beating Minnesota in his previous outing on Aug. 21 (2 ERs allowed over 6 1/3 innings). Rodon has faced Tampa Bay just once, permitting four runs over 4 2/3 innings.
The pick: Rodon's poor start against the Rays hardly means anything. However, what is relevant is that he had strung together five straight quality starts before last Saturday's poor effort against the Tigers. He had allowed just nine ERs over 36 innings, for a 2.25 ERA. However, much like the hard-luck Archer, he managed just one victory in that span. Archer really has "all the tools" but wins are tough to come by. Matched up against Rodon here (see above for his recent outings), expect the "under" to be the result.
SPORTS WAGERS
App State +14 over GEORGIA
We absolutely like the direction the Bulldogs are headed in the Kirby Smart era but this roster is still two good recruiting classes away from quality depth and competition at every position. Georgia returns a high number of starters but they are also a lot of players being molded into new roles, which in itself can be somewhat transitional. All told, it would be unreasonable to expect the Dawgs to be one of those teams that looks in midseason form right out of the gate but they’re priced like it here. They’ll now face a team that can go anyplace in America and compete, not look out of place or not be intimidated by the setting.
Appalachian State is a fully-seasoned, veteran group that knows exactly who it is, free of any glaring weaknesses. This year's Mountaineers are the product of five years of building under Scott Satterfield since transitioning to the FBS level and their 20-scholarship increase in recruiting. App State took Tennessee to overtime to open last year, and now, past lessons in hand, gets a second chance at a regional blueblood. The Mountaineers are coming with purpose and belief and they will probably take every ounce of Georgia's A-game to get past them. Any signs of Georgia players letting their minds wander away from respecting the task at hand will point to getting serious about backing the 'dog to win outright. Don’t be surprised if that happens and don’t be afraid to put App State in a couple of money-line parlays either. Georgia's Week 2 road game at Notre Dame figures to be on their minds too, Take these generous points and expect to cash this ticket.
Kent State +41 over CLEMSON
The opening weekend will be a ceremonious one for the Tigers, as there will be plenty of festivities and fanfare in Death Valley, as the Clemson faithful will raise the 2016 National Champion banner to commemorate their storied run to glory. Though Clemson has a huge riddle to solve with their quarterback situation while also dealing with a huge off-loading of the talent that propelled the Tigers to said championship, Clemson will be priced nonetheless like any other top-five defending champ: heavily inflated. By no means are we here to argue that Kent State is going to wreck Clemson’s festivities but it can be conceived that the Golden Flashes are taking back a plethora of inflated points. Clemson isn’t likely to be in kill or high intensity mode here while the dog will be. The Golden Flashes were scheduled by Clemson to be a virtual win. The Tigers did this so they can focus more of their attention on the celebratory activities and less on a threatening opponent that could rain on their parade.
However, Kent State has a litany of experience playing against some of the best teams in America as a scheduled tune-up opponent. In 2016, K-State faced Penn State and Alabama on the road, so Death Valley will be just another day at the office for them. Kent State finished 3-9 in 2016 but their record is a bit misleading. The Golden Flashes could have been bowl eligible had a few bounces gone their way. Outside of their losses to ‘Bama and PSU, the Golden Flashes lost four of their seven games by a margin of four points or less and much of their demise was rooted in their lack of offensive production. K-State’s defense was sound all year and that defense returns nine starters, including all four defensive backs and three of their leading tacklers. While Clemson begins to rediscover itself in the post-Dashaun Watson era, this game reminds us of the Harlem Globetrotters playing the Washington Generals with the Tigers being the Globetrotters. In other words, pick an opponent to toy with, treat it as an exhibition game, pull off a few tricks and send the fans home happy. Indeed the fans will go home satisfied after a glorious of day of football in one of the greatest venues and atmospheres in the country. We can’t say the same about going home happy for those spotting 41 points.
Vanderbilt -3 over MID TENNESSEE ST
Laying road chalk can be a dicey proposition and is something we usually avoid but we must go after the true value and the Commodores are being sold very short here. Each of the last two years, when Middle Tennessee had better teams and Vandy wasn't as good, the Commodores won and covered as a 2½-point underdog and 3½-point favorite, respectively. When comparing the 2015 Vanderbilt victory to their 2016 shellacking of the Blue Raiders in Music City, it is evident that Vanderbilt is making noticeable strides under Derek Mason. In 2016, the Commodores thrashed the Blue Raiders by a score of 47-24, closing at an identical price to the one we see offered here. Now in 2017, the Vanderbilt team taking the field could be Vandy’s most promising unit it has fielded since former coach James Franklin left for Penn State. The ‘Dores feature a stable of talented running backs, led by perhaps one of the best rushers in America, Ralph Webb. Complemented by a stout and solid defense, the Commodores are a team that can flirt with the 10-win mark if a few things go their way this year. Vandy’s reputation as a perennial middling ball team works to our advantage here big time.
The Blue Raiders come with a lot of promise in their own right, as they return a dynamic offense and a prolific passer in senior quarterback Brent Stockstill to lead the charge. Furthermore, the Blue Raiders have the benefit of playing this one at home where they are typically tough to beat. However, some of Middle Tennessee State’s exploits in 2016 argue otherwise. Middle Tennessee State’s defense was among the worst in the country. MTSU’s abysmal defeat in the Hawaii Bowl captures this in vivid color. The Blue Raiders would jump out to a 14-point lead against the Rainbow Warriors only to surrender it down the backstretch and be pummeled by a final score of 52-35. This is a team that also had its doors blown off as a 19-point favorite against Texas-San Antonio when the Blue Raiders would fall 45-25 at home in Murfreesboro. In the aforementioned outing, MTSU gave up a generous 271 yards on the ground. The Blue Raiders surrendered an average of 449 yards per game and this year’s edition is not expected to be an improved one.
Endorsements of Mid-Tennessee State will be few and far between in this space and in Week 1 we seek to attack weak defenses in difficult situations. Communication issues, substitution gaffes and other unforced errors of game management can be worth significant points to the favorite. Derek Mason has shown the ability to coach Vanderbilt to easy victories over Mid-Tennessee and make the Blue Raiders high-octane offense look uncomfortable for 60 minutes. This year Vandy is so much better while State is worse and the outcome will very likely be the same, that being a Vandy win and cover.
Temple +19 over NOTRE DAME
Notre Dame is a team that needs no introductions but on the opening Saturday of the college football season, you will be paying some massive premiums to back some blue bloods and this is a great example of that. The Golden Domes assignment today is not as easy as this line suggests it will be, as they are going up against the defending American Athletic Conference Champions. Temple was not expected to win the American last year. All eyes were on Houston, USF, and Navy as the top choices. Nevertheless, Temple did what it does best and played sound defense to expose notoriously offensive-oriented ball clubs. The rest is history.
In 2016, Temple featured one of the best passing defenses in all of America. However, many analysts argue that the Owls are due for attrition with a regime change coupled with three of their premiere pass rushers leaving town. The most notable loss for the Owls was defensive end Hasson Reddick who ascended to become a first round draft-pick. However the defensive backfield that was responsible for producing stellar numbers in 2016 returns in full force. In addition, the hiring of Geoff Collins figures to help the continual growth for this program, as he is a defensive specialist. Collins spent many years coaching in the SEC as a defensive coordinator for Mississippi State and most recently the Florida Gators. The performance of the Gators’ defense speaks for itself, as Collins managed to architect defensive units responsible for leading the Orange and Blue to two consecutive SEC Championship Games in 2015 and 2016, while having to whether often inconsistent shoe-string Gator offenses to complement them. Temple is simply not known as a good football team. For many years, Temple has been regarded as one of college football’s kick-around teams. Few can recall a time where the Owls were playing at a high level for such an extended period of time and as a result of this prejudice, many are expecting a collapse. A road trip to Notre Dame in the eyes the market is primed to be the catalyst.
On the contrary, expectations are often very high for Notre Dame yet they are the ones who have failed to live up to the hype. Since being smoked in the National Championship in the 2012-2013 by the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Fighting Irish have had just one 10-win season. 2016 was their worst effort of all, as Notre Dame finished 4-8 and failed to make a bowl game. Lastly, Notre Dame could easily find itself ensnared here as they may be guilty of looking ahead to Week Two when they host the Bulldog Nation of Georgia in one of the most anticipated contests of 2017. We have an opportunity to step in on a defending conference champion at an enhanced price. and that’s precisely how we’ll proceed.
Western Michigan +27½ over USC
The press machine may be running out of ink with all the hype surrounding the Trojans in the off-season. Whether it be the explosive run they concocted to finish their 2016 season, their dramatic Rose Bowl victory or the play of Sam Darnold, the Trojans come in to 2017 with expectations through the roof. To further embellish this principle, Sam Darnold has emerged as a pre-season favorite for the Heisman and NFL scouts are already drooling over the prodigal signal caller by dubbing him the next big thing. Such pandemonium has generated a lot of buzz. The Trojans are the trendy and popular choice for many distinctions in the early going. What that essentially does is provide us with opportunities to take back inflated points, which is something we’re always on the lookout for.
Western Michigan comes in off the heels of what has to be classified as a dream season. Despite the fact they fell in the Cotton Bowl against Wisconsin, the Broncos fielded their greatest team in school history when they ran the table in the regular season and followed it up with a MAC Championship. With the architect behind the storied run, P.J Fleck moving onto Minnesota, along with Corey Davis and Zach Terrell also heading onward from Mount Pleasant, the Broncos are expected to come crashing down to Earth in their 2017 follow-up. Opening against the Men of Troy in the Coliseum seems like a prime scenario to expedite that process.
While this may seem like a keen situation to swallow the heavy glass of juice, the Broncos return two key ingredients that helped make that special sauce that powered them to greatness in 2016. Their names: Jamauri Bogan and Jarvion Franklin. Franklin emerged on the scene in 2014 as a prolific running back that went onto earn honors, including Mid-American Conference Freshman of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year. Bogan came into the fold to join Franklin as an effective 1-2 punch, which the Broncos wielded all throughout 2016 on opponents that had no answer for the dynamic duo. When taking back big lumber, we want our side to have some cover abilities and WMU has that in spades. They have the ability to run the ball and use up some clock and they also have the ability to score points to come in through the back door. Both those traits combined should provide more than enough firepower to get WMU in under the number here.
COASTAL CAROLINA +115 over UMass
Coastal Carolina opened as a three-point favorite but very quickly a steady heap of steam on UMass has now positioned the Chanticleers as a home pooch. We love this situation because the scenario sets up perfectly for Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are playing their first ever game as a full-fledged FBS participant and they have the opportunity to do so under the lights against an opponent that comes in wounded off a bitter loss at home a week ago. On August 26th, Massachusetts fell 38-35 to visiting Hawaii, who would steal the win with a touchdown in the last minute of play. Though the contest shaped up perfectly for the Minutemen to hit the ground running against a jet-lagged opponent that traveled across five time zones and over 5,000 miles, UMass failed to capitalize and blew a two touchdown lead en route to their jagged defeat. The emotional toll of this loss has yet to be seen but you can be rest assured Coastal Carolina is jacked up for this contest.
Though the Chanticleers have perhaps the most unique name across the country, very little is known about them be it that they are in their transition year at the FBS level. Nevertheless, their profile fits that of a team that can make an immediate splash because they are accustomed to playing at a high level. In 2016, Coastal Carolina finished 10-2 winning their last six contests in a row to round off its season. The two losses for the Chanticleers were settled on both occasions by one point. Both of those losses came against top-10 ranked FCS opponents, one of which was a double overtime inferno against Charleston Southern. The Chanticleers were not eligible for postseason qualification in 2016, as they already secured membership to the Sun Belt Conference in July but had not progressed to full football member. So essentially, they were playing FCS ball but were already a FBS constituent. This year, the Chanticleers will be unable to attend a bowl game by virtue of this arduous process but they can still make a name for themselves in the regular season and it can be derived that they are fully inclined to do so. UMass finished as one of the worst teams in the FBS in 2016 and are one of the lowest ranked clubs in 2017. Coastal Carolina is one of the better teams UMass may face all year and they are certainly in the upper echelons with respect to FCS ensembles. The bias of FBS vs. FCS is one that often jades many public opinions and results in a lot of ripped up tickets. We have seen this is in extremity with North Dakota State defeating Iowa in Kinnick Stadium in 2016. The same line of thinking had been applied there but the Bison had other ideas. However, we must urge all that Coastal Carolina is NO longer a FCS team and they will look to make this clear against a beleaguered UMass team at home in front of an enthusiastic fan base. CC outright gets this call.
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the big game on the card, and I'm laying the points with the Alabama Crimson Tide over the Florida State Seminoles. I don't care how good Florida State is this season, the Crimson Tide have been seething since losing in the national championship, and this game is redemption, while the kickoff toward another run to the playoffs.
With this game on a neutral field, I honestly believe the Tide will be better suited in the Mercedes Benz Stadium, than the Seminoles. It'll have that big-game atmosphere, and the pro-Bama crowd will be loud in Atlanta.
I'm well aware Florida State is 8-0 SU and 5-3 ATS in season-openers on a neutral fields, but the past five seasons have seen the Tide go 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the same scenario.
All those trends really are moot when it comes to programs like this. What it comes down to is which team is better and who has the better offense - not defense. We have two defensive stalwarts, so you have to ask which team will move the ball.
My money is on Alabama in that regard, as I'm putting my faith in sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Take last year's national runner-up, as last year's loss still stings.
1* ALABAMA
Oskeim Sports
Nevada at Northwestern
Play: Nevada +24.5
After watching its offense regress for four consecutive seasons, Nevada decided to bring in Jay Norvell, who is familiar with the spread offense and should reignite a dormant attack with Alabama recruit David Cornwell at quarterback.
The Wolf Pack's defense should also be vastly improved under the guidance of defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel, who has implemented a 3-3-5 scheme that is extremely difficult to game plan for.
Nevada's stop unit welcomes back nine starters, including its top nine tacklers along the line and three of the top four at linebacker. The secondary is anchored by safeties Asauni Rufus, Dameon Baber and Jaden Sawyer, who combined for 10 tackles for a loss and 14 passes defensed.
My math model only favors Northwestern by 19 points and the Wildcats are just 4-8 ATS as double-digit favorites and 3-8 ATS at home versus non-conference opponents.
Harry Bondi
TROY (+9.5) over Boise State
We are 4-1 on our last five football free picks and today we grab an underrated Troy team catching points. The Trojans return 15 starters from last year’s team that went 10-3 and won a bowl game. They certainly won’t be intimidated by this trip West if you consider last year they nearly upset Clemson on the road, losing 30-24. The once-vaunted home field advantage for Boise State is no more as the Broncos are now just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on the blue turf. Boise State also has a huge grudge match on deck next week against Washington State and may get caught looking ahead. Take the points!
King Creole
Temple / Notre Dame Under
Someone must have left the iron on… ‘cause this game is STEAMING! At least from the pointspread perspective. Notre Dame opened up as a favorite of -13 points in this game against the Temple Owls. At last look, the Irish were all the way up to -18 or -18.5. From an OU perspective, there has not been the same kind of extreme movement. The OU line opened at 55.5 points. As we type this on Friday afternoon, the line stands at 55.5 to 56 points. Both of these teams finished their respective 2016 seasons with fairly consistent low-scoring results. Notre Dame closed the year on a 2-6 O/U run in their last 8 games… and Temple went 1-5 O/U to close the season, including an UNDER by -15 points in their AAC Championship Game against Navy.
Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks this season. DeShone Kizer of the Irish decided to test the NFL waters, and he’s now the #1 guy for the Cleveland Browns. On the flip side, PJ Walker was a FOUR-year staple at QB for the Owls, but he’s gone. And new head coach Geoff Collins has said that as many as THREE Temple QBS could see playing time on Saturday. Gonna be tough to develop any sort of offensive rhythm with that king of merry-go-round at the QB position.
This game has a lot of ‘newness’ to it. As mentioned above, Geoff Collins replaces Matt Rhule. And Collins is known as a defense-FIRST guy. After all he was defense coordinator for one of the best stop units (and UNDER team) in all of college football: the Florida Gators. He should have no problem extending the Owls’ greatness on ‘D’ another year. Remember, Temple had the 3rd BEST defense last season in all of football and allowed only 18 points per game. While Notre Dame still has the same head coach, THREE new coordinators will be getting their feet wet.
Our database simulations punt to a final score of:
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH 31
TEMPLE OWLS 17
Nelly
Akron + over Penn State
The Nittany Lions delivered an incredible season going from a 2-2 start including a loss in the Big Ten opener to the Big Ten championship with huge wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin. Now juniors Penn State has stars at quarterback and running back with Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley and the offense has the potential to top last season's great numbers. The defense was erratic last season and that may remain the case this season. Penn State has failed to cover in an early season MAC matchup each of the past two years and this will be the biggest Penn State spread vs. a FBS foe since 2008. Akron lost by 44 at Wisconsin last season but the Zips have a respectable showing vs. Penn State from 2014, the same year they upset Pittsburgh. Terry Bowden's squad hit a high mark in 2015 before sliding to 5-7 last season, losing the final four games with bowl eligibility on the line. This year's team has some veteran experience with Thomas Woodson back at quarterback and the points are appealing given that a top 10 Wisconsin squad only gave the Zips +23½ early last season. Penn State has a revenge game with Pittsburgh up next and the offense might try to keep some of its best plays off the table if they are able to as this isn't likely to be a game where the Lions are adding points late.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +120 over SEATTLE
Jharel Cotton finally found his strikeout pitch in his last outing by whiffing nine Rangers (with 0 walks), after previously striking out more than five hitters in a game only once since May 9th. A 15% swing and miss rate in that last outing confirm he had good stuff so we’ll keep an eye out today to see if that was an isolated incident or the beginning of a strong season-finishing kick. We know for sure that Cotton has the ability to dominate because his filthy stuff has been on display before. Jharel Cotton is not the target here, as Yovani Gallardo remains high on our fade list priorities.
Gallardo has worked out of the rotation and out of the bullpen this year for a total of 25 appearances covering 123 innings. Last year, he appeared in 23 games over 118 innings but missed two months with a shoulder injury after a rough April. Things hardly improved upon his return and nothing has changed this year. In fact, it’s getting worse while the innings increase. This year, Gallardo has posted career-worst command with a vile BB/K split of 56/90 over 123 frames. He’s also posted the worst skills and xERA of his career while his 53% first-pitch strike rate continues to speak to his strained relationship with the strike zone. The pitcher you remember from 2009-12 no longer exists and it’s not getting any better. This is one of baseball’s riskiest favorites that must be faded because his chances of losing are greater than his chances of winning every time he’s handed the ball.
Cincinnati +134 over PITTSBURGH
Jameson Taillon was very high on our radar for the first four months of the season and he delivered the goods for us but things turned sour for him about a month ago, which was about the time we started fading him. Taillon is running out of gas, which is evident throughout his profile. He’s walking more batters, he’s striking out less, his swinging strike rate is down to 8% over his last five starts and he’s been downright awful against left-handed bats. Taillon’s xERA since the beginning of August covering five starts is 8.15 and most of that can be attributed to 15 walks over his past 28 frames with a brutal line-drive rate of 30%. Taillon is a big-time risk spotting a price and he’ll now face a hot-hitting Reds’ squad that will see him for the third time in less than a month. Incidentally, he was blown up by Cinci in the first game. Taillon managed to hold the Reds to one run in a rematch in his last start but still labored through 108 pitches in just four innings in that effort and was extremely lucky to not give up a crooked number.
Tyler Mahle made his debut last week and took the loss after giving up three earned runs in five frames for an ERA of 5.40. That’s what the market sees but we see so much more. Mahle had a 64% groundball rate in his first start to go along with 5 K’s in 5 innings and a 13% swing and miss rate. The problem was that he walked four batters otherwise he would’ve thrown a gem. The good news is that walking batters is not a characteristic of this starter. He only walked 1.9 batters per nine over his minor league career. His advanced pitchability and knack for keeping hitters off-guard by changing speeds have made him difficult to hit. Mahle commands and controls his 89-95 mph fastball extremely well and is able to spot it impeccably to both sides of the plate. We watched and liked his debut very much and made note of it. Now that his feet are wet and the nerves settled, expect even better things out of this starter today. Nice overlay here.
Arizona -1½ +200 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
22-37 + 22.75 units
SAN FRAN +129 over St. Louis
Matt Cain gets bumped to the bullpen and the beneficiary of that is Chris Stratton, who has made five starts since Cain’s demotion. Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy said that Stratton won't be a one-time deal either, meaning the rotation spot is his for the rest of the year with a chance to stick next year too. In his last start at Arizona against the Snakes respected lineup, Stratton three a six-inning, four-hit, two earned runs beauty. Two starts ago against Washington, Stratton struck out 10 batters, walked just one and allowed a mere six baserunners in 6.2 innings of work. He now has 33 K’s in 38 innings this year.
We can’t say just yet if his early results are a fluke or not. What we can say is that Stratton didn’t get overly lucky to get these results, as his fastball command has been on point with a curveball that has induced plenty of bad swings (19.2%). His slider and change hint at upside, though it would be asking a lot for Stratton to touch his ceiling with at least three of his pitches all working on a given night. He does have a four-pitch arsenal and even if he doesn’t pitch at his best, Stratton should be heavily considered here because he was a high prospect back in 2012 and has a 14% swing and miss rate since he returned.
As the calendar turns to the final month of the season, beware of teams playing the spoiler role, especially underachieving clubs like the Giants. San Fran finally has something to play for and that is to spoil the dreams of teams’ thinking about the post-season. Furthermore, our continued attack on Lance Lynn is not about to stop here.
Lynn has a 3.14 ERA this year after 27 starts. He also has a 3.40 ERA on the road after 14 starts. Over his last three starts, Lynn is 0-0 with an ERA of 3.22. All of that looks sweet on paper and so this market is going to pay dearly to back Lynn’s surface stats but we promise you that ALL OF IT, the overall ERA, the road ERA and his ERA over his last three starts is all a massive fluke. Lance Lynn has been riding a wave of extreme good fortune this entire season and at some point it’s going to catch up to him. Lynn’s swing and miss rate since the beginning of July is 5%. His first-pitch strike rate this year is 51%. Over his last five starts covering 31 innings, Lynn has walked 15 and posted a WHIP of 1.70. Lynn comes in with the highest strand rate in MLB at 86.4%. He also comes in with the lowest BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) among all starters today at .234. His xERA since the beginning of July is 6.22 and yet here he is, priced like he’s pitching like Carlos Martinez when in fact, he’s pitching more like Matt Cain. Lance Lynn is not the worst starter in baseball by any stretch but he is without question one of MLB’s luckiest and most overpriced pitchers and must be faded when he’s road chalk.
Larry Ness
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle -130
The Mariners entered their five-game slide last night, edging the A's 3-2. Seattle needs a sweep here against the the sad-sack A's, as the team's recent struggles has left them 4 1/2 games back of the Twins for the second wild card in the American League, as well as dealing with the fact that there were four other teams between them and Minnesota. Seattle.
Mike Leake picked up the win in his debut for the team after being acquired from St. Louis earlier in the week (7 IP / 2 ERs) but the struggling Yovani Gallardo (5-10, 5.78 ERA) takes the mound tonight for the host Mariners, opposed by Oakland rookie Jharel Cotton (7-10, 5.40 ERA), Seattle was hoping that in signing Gallardo in the off-season, that he'd somehow regain the form he showed for the Brewers when he won a minimum of 12 games and a maximum of 17, in a five-year stretch from 2009-13 (72 total wins). However, that hasn't been the case. Gallardo just finished August 0-3 (7.46 ERA) in five starts with Seattle winning once. He owns a 1.50 WHIP and .270 BAA to go along with a 5.78 ERA on the season with just five wins in 25 appearances (21 starts).
Cotton allowed two runs over 6.2 innings in a 3-2 win at Houston back on Aug. 20 and then limited Texas to two runs (one earned) while matching a career high with nine strikeouts in an 8-3 victory seven days later. Cotton now hopes to win three straight starts for the first time in his major-league career. This rookie has faced the Mariners at home twice this season, giving up two runs in a 4-3 win on April 22 before getting tagged for six runs and eight hits, including three HRs, in a 6-3 loss on Aug. 9.
Gallardo entered the 2017 season with an 0-5 career record against Oakland but he is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in four starts against them here in 2017 (Seattle is 3-1). That's enough for me to back the Mariners here, as 58-76 Oakland is not only tied with Detroit for the AL's second-worst record (White Sox are dead-last at 52-81), the A's are a woeful 21-45 away from home on the season, while getting outscored 5.27-to-3.86 RPG.
The Real Animal
Ball State +6
Illinois is still in rebuilding mode with Coach Lovie Smith. The Illini has endured five consecutive losing seasons including 3-9 last year. They are 7-9 ATS the past five seasons as a home favorite. The secondary is in shambles with senior corner Jaylen Dunlap expected to miss and safety Patrick Nelson nursing a shoulder injury. QB Chayce Crouch has limited experience throwing for 249 yards in four appearances. Illinois averaged just 19.7 points per game in 2016 and were shutout by Iowa 28-0 in their last home appearance. Ball State QB Riley Neal had 29 touchdown passes and over 4,800 yards in the air last season. Ball State was 5-0 ATS last year as a road underdog and has covered 17 of 24 when catching points. Illinois has cashed just two times in their last dozen when giving up 11 points or fewer at home. Ball State showed improvement under 1st-year coach Mike Neu last season. They were +78 yards per game on offense and -47 yards on defense compared to 2015. Ball State easily has the best running back on the field with James Gilbert coming off 1,332 yards last season. I think the Cardinals stay in the hunt.
Greg Smith
BYU +15
This game is interesting because we actually got another 3 points by moving the game from Houston to New Orleans. So I believe we are getting great value in this game. The Cougars have the line to defend and attack on both sides of the ball to keep this game tight.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Florida State vs. Alabama
Play: Florida State +7.5
It what is the biggest opener in college football this season two potential National Championship contenders will knock helmets in Atlanta. Alabama has one four NCAA titles under Nick Saban but lost in the Final 35-31 to Clemson last time out, they also lost a number of their top defensive players to the NFL and lost one of their returning defensive players to a gun shot wound last week. Florida State under Jimbo Fisher has notched a National Championship of their own and will have the best payer on the field in quarterback Deondre Francois. The Seminoles are 9-1 against the SEC under Fisher but Alabama leads the series 2-1-1 with State winning the last meeting 21-14 in 2007.