Brad Powers
Missouri at West Virginia
Play: Missouri +11.5
The opening week of college football is now less than two months away and while there has been some major line movements in several games (including the Georgia St/Ball State line moving 8.5 points!), there are a few teams out there still offering up some value including a Missouri team poised for a bounce back season.
While the Tigers will have a new head coach roaming the sidelines for the first time in 15 years (Gary Pinkel retired at the end of last season), Barry Odom is very familiar with the school having been a LB here in the mid-90's while also serving as the DC here last year. His defense a year ago, was the lone bright spot on a team that had a disappointing 5-7 season.
This year's defense could be even better thanks to the return of 8 starters including 5 of their top 6 tacklers. Their defensive line is one of the top 5 DL units in all of college football thanks to the return of all 4 starters plus the addition of 2014 star Harold Brantley who missed all of last year with injury. That defensive front was one of the big reasons why Missouri was No. 2 in the FBS last year in TFL per game.
The problem with last year's team was an offense that ranked second to last averaging just 13.6 ppg and were also just No. 124 in total offense (averaging just 281 ypg). This year's offensive unit is much improved starting with QB Drew Lock who is now in his sophomore season. Lock is 6-4 and 221 lbs and has an NFL future. He will be surrounded by a pair of very talented graduate transfers in RB Alex Ross from Oklahoma and WR Chris Black from Alabama. These key transfers are getting little notice from the early markets and one of the reasons why Missouri is currently flying under the radar.
On the other side, West Virginia looks better on offense this season, but do lose 9 of their top 13 tacklers on defense including four NFL draft picks (a significant loss for a program like WV). This defense could be susceptible to giving up a lot of points early in the season while the new starters adjust which leaves the back-door wide open for a much improved Missouri offense.
The technicals are also in favor of the Tigers here as they are a respectable 28-16 ATS (64%) the last 10 years in non-conference action while also sporting a solid 12-5 ATS mark (71%) as an away underdog. Meanwhile, West Virginia has struggled as a home favorite under head coach Dana Holgorsen going just 9-15 ATS (37.5%).
Finally, the early Noon start could see both teams slow out of the gates (favors the big dog) and my current power ratings have this line at West Virginia -8, a significant difference from the current -11.5 line which is above a couple of key numbers (10 and 11). I'd suggest a 1-unit (1-star) play on Missouri +11.5 for week 1.