TEDDY DAVIS
Eastern Michigan vs. Kentucky
Play: Eastern Michigan +14½
This is the classic flat spot for Kentucky here. They are coming off such an emotional loss to Florida in which it was a series they have been dominated in. Given that situation they clearly won't have as much focus here on this game.
Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan would love nothing more than to come into an SEC stadium and escape with a win. EMU is a better than average MAC team and played one of the top tier MAC teams in Ohio very tough last week.
While I realize EMU hasn't played the toughest competition they are still holding their opponents to 4.6 yards per play. The Wildcats don't exactly have an explosive offense by any means. Give the tough situation I think this will be a lot closer than people expect.
RICKY TRAN
Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Under 51
Both defenses have the goods to make points tough to generate. As good as the Hokies have been on offense they go up against a impressive Tigers defense Saturday night. The Tigers have been getting after the quarterback all year with their penetrating D-line.
The Hokies have been rock solid on defense (#28 FBS) despite playing two good offenses (West Virginia, East Carolina). Virginia Tech is ranked #6 in the FBS in 3rd down defense and are the only team in the FBS that has not given up a rushing TD yet this season.
The Clemson offense struggled vs a good Auburn defense and only had 7 points after three quarters vs Boston College.
FREDDY WILLS
Vanderbilt vs. Florida
Play: Vanderbilt +9
The last two weeks we gave out Georgia who covered the spread by a margin of 25 against the closing number. The week before we gave out Clemson who covered the spread by 23 points against the closing number. This week we go with a dog that we feel could very easily pull the outright upset!
Vanderbilt lost a week ago to Alabama 59-0, and look to quickly move on. How soon people forget that this team was 3-0 with 2 quality wins over Middle Tennessee and Kansas State. Vanderbilt has actually out played Florida in the trenches the last two year by out rushing them by more than 50 yards in each game. Unfortunately, they lost by 9 total points, but find themselves as 9 point dogs here and Florida has not shown me anything other than the fact that they can win at the end of a game. Why are they nearly a double digit favorite?
I had high hopes for Florida coming into the year and even had them as a dark horse candidate to get to the college football playoff, but the suspensions have resulted in losing 2 of their best offensive players in Callaway and Scarlett. Now they are trying out a third QB in Luke Del Rio who we already know is not any good going up against a defense that has held this same offense to 22 total points the last two years. A Florida offense that has gotten into the red zone a total of 4 times this year.
Florida could very easily be 0-3 right now. They had a hailmary against Tennessee who nearly lost to Umass at home last week. They scored 2 TD’s in the last 8 minutes of that game to devastate Kentucky and now they should be looking ahead to LSU. I think Vanderbilt is too good here and despite last week’s result they are actually better on offense than in years past. They have a veteran group of running backs and Florida looks a bit weaker than normal on defense especially against the run. This game is going to once again come down to the wire and I could see myself playing Vanderbilt on the money line early in this game in live betting.
MATT JOSEPHS
North Texas vs. Southern Miss
Play: Over 57½
Southern Miss is coming off a bye week to host North Texas. The Golden Eagles have wins over Southern and Louisiana Monroe to go with a loss to Kentucky. This might be the best offense they've seen this season. The Mean Green have cracked the 30 point mark three times already behind a solid passing attack and Jeffrey Wilson on the ground. The problem for the road team has been their defense which has been gashed by competent aerial attacks. Southern Miss wants to run the ball to set up the pass. I really like this North Texas team with Coach Littrell in year two of his offense. I'd have probably taken them, but Southern Miss has had extra time to prepare. Instead, I think this one is a shootout.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Tulsa +7½
Relentless Navy attack racked up a 569-58 rushing yard edge over Cincinnati, but lost ATS (1-point) on a 2-point conversion in the the last 6:06 mins. Miami lost to New Mexico on 53-yard field goal at the gun, as scoring has come from 66, to 51, to 13. And from 364 rushing yards per game to 155 vs New Mexico. Navy covered their L3 road games by 27, 37, and 14 points.
SEAN MURPHY
Texas State vs. Wyoming
Play: Wyoming -16
I’ll lay the points with Wyoming as it stays home off an overtime win over Hawaii last week to host a weak Texas State squad.
We’ve gone against the Bobcats in each of the last two weeks, splitting those two plays. Texas State has essentially been a no-show since opening the campaign with a 20-11 victory over Houston Baptist back on September 2nd. Since then, it has produced just 30 points in three games. I simply don’t believe the Bobcats will be able to keep up in Laramie on Saturday.
Wyoming QB Josh Allen has been touted as a potential top 10, possibly even number one overall NFL draft pick but he certainly hasn’t played like it this season. That’s had a lot to do with the Cowboys schedule, however. He bounced back against Hawaii last week and should put up some gawdy numbers against a weak Texas State defense this Saturday.
After reaching the Mountain West Championship Game last year, the Cowboys carried high expectations into the 2017 season but after a 2-2 start they’re in a big spot here, knowing that they’ll need to get rolling before a bye week, which is followed by tough back-to-back road games at Utah State and Boise State.
ASA
Buffalo vs. Kent State
Play: Kent State +7½
We like the ugly dog Kent State Golden Flashes plus the points at home in this MAC opener against the visiting Buffalo Bulls. Both of these programs rank near the bottom in our college rankings but the biggest difference is their strength of schedule. Kent State has played two elite programs this year in Clemson and Louisville while Buffalo’s stiffest competition was Minnesota. In fact, Buffalo has played the 111th easiest schedule in nation according to our database with games against Florida Atlantic, Army, Colgate and Minny). Besides playing Clemson and Louisville the Flashes played at Marshall and beat Howard. Last year when these conference foes squared off the visiting Golden Flashes were a 3-point favorite and won handily 44-20. Now they are 7-point dogs at home? Buffalo lost their starting QB Tyree Jackson last week against FAU which is a HUGE blow to their team. Jackson accounted for 960 total yards of the Bulls total 1,518 yards on the season. Kent also lost their QB a few weeks back but it’s not as critical with their triple option attack, and they’ve had an extra week to prepare without him. Let’s face it, Kent is looked at by the public as an awful team but their horrible overall statistics have to do with facing two top 20 teams. They step way down in class here and are getting a full TD at home. Dog has covered 6 of the last nine.
MATT FARGO
Air Force vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico +2½
New Mexico is coming off a bounce back win over Tulsa following a two-game losing streak and it carries that into Week Five. The Lobos lost to rival New Mexico St. by two points and followed that up with a loss against Boise St. but did manage the cover. They lost starting quarterback Lamar Jordan in that game against the Broncos and while he also missed last week, he will be back this week against Air Force. The running game got back on track last week as New Mexico rushed for 338 yards on 59 carries (5.7 ypc) and should have success against a very average Falcons rushing defense whose numbers are skewed because of a 62-0 win over VMI in their season opener. Air Force is coming off a loss against the Wolverines two weeks ago while last week, the Falcons lost at home against San Diego St. They were outgained by 127 and 114 yards in those games so while the finals scores looked respectable, they did not play as good as those scoring margins indicate. Air Force has been surprisingly strong defensively as it has just one starter back on defense so replacing a number that big against a rushing offense like that of the Lobos is a challenge to defend. After leading the nation in rushing, the Lobos are ranked No. 20 this season which is still strong and they can increase that this week. While they did lose their top back, the next five all returned and Jordan back in the lineup helps as well. Going back, the Falcons are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss while the Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Memphis vs. Central Florida
Play: Memphis +5
Okay, I must admit that using this game with these two teams brings up the 'fact' that I am 2-0 with these two teams in my Games of the Month or Year. Taking Memphis (+3) 44-41 OUTRIGHT over UCLA (3 weeks ago) and Central Florida (+3) 38-10 OUTRIGHT over Maryland last week makes me smile and believe I have insight with these two schools. Both teams are undefeated but have lost valued and key players. Four starters on defense for Memphis but the biggest blow was to the Panthers who lost running back Jawon Hamilton.
KYLE HUNTER
Troy +21
The LSU Tigers have definitely dropped back a couple notches from where they were a couple years ago. LSU still has a lot of talent, but they haven't been able to put it all together.
LSU goes to Florida next week and those teams don't have a lot of love for each other. Before that though, they must host a Sun Belt opponent in the Troy Trojans.
Troy has underachieved a bit this year as well, but they have shown how competitive they can be. They lost by only six points at Clemson last year against the eventual national champs. Troy has a veteran quarterback who makes solid decisions, and they have a great defensive coordinator.
I think Troy cares a lot more about this game than does LSU. Could LSU blow them out here? They could. I just think the motivational spot is a really good one for a Troy team that would love to put in a good showing in Baton Rouge. We're catching three touchdowns with an underdog that has a lot to play for and a good defense. The posted total is so low that grabbing this many points makes a lot of sense.
MIKE ANTHONY
Mississippi St vs. Auburn
Play: Auburn -9
Thinking back to 2015 when Auburn was a troubled team - but things have changed quite a bit, haven't they? Auburn have not allowed 14+ pts over 4 games this season. With that confidence on defense - Auburn has less to be overly concerned about, they can more than hold their own. Mississippi State has not shown a great rated pass blocking scheme. Quick pressure through the LG has been the fuel for Auburn and will be again. The awesome running game is going keep Mississippi State in the game throughout - but their passing game has been more than struggling. Auburn can take it to the Bulldogs without much effort which makes dealing with long 3rd downs very hard for Mississippi State. Mississippi State didn't tighten up their D, or make the big plays vs Georgia last week, another tough one here. I am actually surprised they were able to score at all - they were manhandled throughout vs Georgia. Mississippi State they will get their line blown apart - and have another huge letdown road game instead of what they will want to do. Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games. Auburn wins by 16 or more.
JIMMY BOYD
Arizona St vs. Stanford
Play: Under 6.5
Free Pick on Arizona St/Stanford UNDER I like the value here with the total going UNDER the mark in Saturday's afternoon Pac-12 showdown between Arizona State and Stanford. There's no question the total here is inflated given the recent results of these two teams. The Cardinal just played a game against UCLA where the two teams combined for 92 points. The Sun Devils combined for 72 with Oregon in their last game and 97 the previous time out against Texas Tech.
The thing to keep in mind is all 3 of those games came against teams that aren't great defensively and love to push the tempo offensively, which creates extra possessions for both sides. Stanford doesn't want to play at that kind of pace and would much rather grind out wins with their defense and running game.
Something I think they are going to come in looking to do here, as they don't want to get in a shootout with Arizona State. It's also worth noting that for as bad as the Sun Devils defense looks on paper, they actually haven't been that bad.
They are actually holding opponents to fewer yards/carry than what they average, as well as fewer yards and completion pct. in the passing game. Stanford is a one trick pony offensively as it's pretty much hand it off to Bryce Love and hope he makes something happen. That worked against UCLA, but prior to that they only managed 17 points against San Diego State and 24 against USC.
As for Arizona State, last time they faced a slower paced team, they only put up 20 against the Aztecs. UNDER is 16-6 in Stanford's 22 home games under head coach David Shaw. It's also 22-10 in their last 32 against teams who struggle to run the ball (avg 3.25 or less yards/carry) and 25-12 in their last 37 after a game in which they accounted for more than 450 total yards of offense.
ROB VINCILETTI
Iowa vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan St -3
The Spartans have a big edge on defense and a nice edge on offense over an Iowa Team that may be very flat off a devastating last play loss last week at home to Penn. St. Michigan st is playing a 4th straight home game and coming off a loss. Teams in game 4 that are 1 game over .500 and at home off a loss have covered every time since 1980 if they are a favorite of more than 2.5 points. Look for Michigan St. to bounce back this week.
Will Rogers
Akron vs. Bowling Green
Pick: Akron -2.5
The set-up: The MAC has not yet moved to its weekday schedule (see the month of November), so it's a Saturday game at Doyt Perry Stadium, as the Bowling Green Falcons host the Akron Zips. The Zips fell to 1-3 on the year following a 22-17 defeat at the Troy, 'hanging around' as a 17 point underdog. Akron was out-gained 489-367 and turned the ball over three times but managed to stay close by holding the Trojans to 4-14 on third down. As for the homestanding Falcons, their 24-13 loss at Middle Tennessee State last Saturday (as a four-TD underdog), leaves them 0-4 on the season. This marks the conference-opener for both schools, with BG owning the all-time advantage in this series 16-7.
Akron: The Zips are averaging just 20.8 PPG (110th) on 330.2 YPG (107th). QB Thomas Woodson is completing 58.1 percent for 745 yards with four TDs and four INTs. Warren Ball is the lone RB of note (325 yards and four TDs) for a rushing game averaging only 119.2 YPG (106th) and also just 3.5 YPC. The defense allows 29.5 PPG (90th) on 435.0 YPG (102nd).
Bowling Green: After four consecutive bowl seasons, the Falcons were just 4-8 last year in Mike Jinks first season as head coach. The Falcons had averaged 30-plus points from 2013 through 2015 (42.8 PPG in 2015!), before falling to 24.8 PPG in 2016. This year's team comes in averaging 14.2 PPG (121st) on 330.0 YPG (108th). Two QBs (HC Jinks switched QBs at MTSU, going to true frosh Jarret Doege) have completed only 49.1% with three TDs and two INTs. The rushing game ranks 123rd in averaging 81.2 YPG on a pathetic 2.8 YPC. Defensively, BG is allowing 35.8 PPG (112th) on 549.0 YPG (126th).
The pick: Bowling Green has won the last eight in this series but this year's team is a true mess (can't score and can't stop anyone from scoring). The Zips are no bargain but are the better team here.
Power Sports
Florida State vs. Wake Forest
Pick: Wake Forest +7.5
Remember that historic #1 vs. #3 (rankings) matchup between Alabama and Florida State that took place back in Week 1? Well, maybe it wasn't so historic after all. The Seminoles lost the game (24-7) and their starting QB (Deondre Francois) and it appears as if their season may have gone out the window as well. Before the year, had I told you that the 'Noles would be winless going into the final day of September, you would have likely wanted my head examined. But that's the reality. Now, to be fair, they've had two postponements (Hurricane Irma). But they lost LW at home to NC State, 27-21, as DD favorites. I would not be rushing to bet this team any time soon, especially here laying pts on the road.
It is Wake Forest that comes into this matchup unbeaten at 4-0 SU. I'd call that a surprise, but the Demon Deacons have been favored three times and a pick 'em once. This is - easily - Dave Clawson's best team yet here in Winston-Salem. Clawson has engineered turnarounds at all three previous stops in this coaching career, the last one being Bowling Green, so maybe this shouldn't be all that surprising. But what has impressed me is just how legit this team is. My own power rankings call this a Top 25 team and they rank 16th overall in efficiency nationally. I've been really impressed w/ what I've seen thus far, even in last week's non-cover at Appalachian State (won 20-19 as 5.5-pt road chalk).
I'm not saying the Demon Deacons will pull the outright upset here, but I do look for a close, one-possession game. This is the first "true" road start for FSU QB James Blackman, who remains a work in progress due to being called into duty unexpectedly. Note the Seminoles never led last week against NC State. Wake Forest is 7-1 ATS the last eight times it has been a dog, including four outright wins. Consider taking the points.