Dr Bob
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
Wisconsin has struggled to run the ball in recent seasons but the Badgers appear to have found their next great running back in freshman Jonathan Taylor, who has 438 yards in his first 3 games while averaging a robust 8.3 yards per run. With a good ground game the Badgers’ play-action passes are even more effective and soph quarterback Alex Hornibrook has been incredibly efficient in completing 70% of his passes for 9.4 yards per pass play. Wisconsin is very good offensively if Taylor is indeed the real deal and Northwestern’s mediocre defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defense) doesn’t appear good enough to stop the Badgers.
Northwestern’s offense came to life against Bowling Green in their most recent game (9.1 yppl and 49 points) but the Wildcats’ struggled offensively before that game an Wisconsin still has a very good defense that’s allowed just 10 points and 239 yards per game at 4.3 yppl (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). I don’t think Northwestern will do too much damage and the Badgers should be able to win by more than two touchdowns.
Indiana @ Penn St.
Penn State isn’t nearly as good offensively as they were last season because the pass attack has been inconsistent and not much better than average when compensating for defenses faced. The Nittany Lions are still very good offensively because of the running of Saquon Barkeley (518 yards at 7.8 ypr) and their defense is very, very good this season – so beating a mediocre Indiana team by a comfortable margin is a reasonable expectation. My model leans with Penn State and the Lions apply to a 66-31-3 ATS situation that is based on their good defense (just 8.3 points allowed per game) but I see more value on the under (63) than on the side in this game.
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Luke Del Rio will get the start at quarterback, which is a desperate move considering how much Del Rio has struggled in his career. Del Rio has averaged only 6.1 yards on his 223 pass plays (209 last season and 14 last week) while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. That’s a downgrade but my math still favors Florida by 10 points against a Vanderbilt team that was given a wake-up call last week by Alabama in the form of a 59-0 ass kicking. Vandy is an improved team this season but Florida has under-performed so far defensively and I expect some improvement from the Gators on that side of the ball.
Mississippi St. @ Auburn
Mississippi State’s offense piled up 57 points against a bad Louisiana Tech defense, then put 37 on an LSU defense that is good, but not elite this season. However, last week the Bulldogs ran into a legitimately elite Georgia defense and were held to just 3 points and 4.0 yards per play. Today they face another elite defense, as the Auburn Tigers have held their opponents to just 11.3 points and 230 yards per game at 3.6 yppl, which included limiting Clemson to 4.4 yppl. This game will tell me a lot about Mississippi’s ability to perform against a good defensive team. Was last week just a randomly bad game? Or, are the Bulldogs really not good enough to beat an elite defensive team? My math model is calling for something in between.
Auburn’s offense has been as good as expected in 3 of their 4 games and were held to 117 yards at 1.8 yppl by Clemson. Mississippi State is not Clemson defensively so I expect the Tigers to move the ball pretty well even though Miss State has a better than average defense. My math model favors Auburn by 8½ points so the line on this game is about right.
Mississippi @ Alabama
Mississippi had a week off after losing at Cal but I don’t know if having the extra week to prepare for Alabama really matters. Bama is 7-2 ATS when favored from 14½ to 35 points when they played last week and their opponent had a week off. That’s certainly not a trend I’d put any money on but it certainly suggests that the Rebels having a week off is not an advantage. Ole’ Miss has a very good quarterback in Shea Patterson, but the Rebels’ aerial attack was held in check at Cal, the only team they’ve faced with a decent defense. Alabama’s defense is, of course, more than decent. The Tide are one of the top two or three defensive teams in the nation every year. My math does project a decent 5.2 yards per play for Mississippi in this game but the Rebels are mediocre defensively and Bama has average 41 points in 4 games against teams that are collectively 0.5 yards per play better than defensively than the Ole’ Miss defense.
Joe Everett
Vanderbilt / Florida Under 41½
The Commodores have a stout defense and not much of an offense outside of senior runningback Ralph Webb. He is one of the more versatile runningbacks in college ball with how well he plays as a receiver, how he pass protects and what kind of a chain moving runningback he is. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur started the season off hot but he’s a limited passer that has a tendency to stare down his primary option and has issues with his placement when forced off his initial read. He just doesn’t see the field well and up against a talented secondary in Gainesville that features a ton of NFL talent, he will struggle to move the offense. Florida Sophomore Chauncey Gardner plays all over the field for this defense because he is a rare athlete that will be a Top-10 pick whenever he decides to declare and true freshman cornerback Duke Dawson has all the makings of being a shutdown corner in the seasons to come. The Gators have great depth on that side of the ball and defensive coordinator Randy Shannon is able to stunt a lot up front with the coverage ability in the back half.
Outside of the Alabama blowout, all three of Vanderbilt’s other games have gone UNDER the total and that’s due to a senior laden defense that has limited opponents to 18 points a game. Derek Mason runs a lot out of the 3-3-5 and their secondary has held opponents under 200 yards in every single game thus far. The crux of the matter remains the suspension of junior receiver Antonio Callaway, who was far and away the Gators’ best offensive player and the only real game breaker on the roster. The suspension of runningback Jordan Scarlett also isn’t helping the situation on offense but freshman Malik Davis has shown some real flashes in his absence and also boasts a 7.5 yards per carry average. There is no doubt that Jim McElwain is an offensive guru but he has yet to find his guy at the quarterback position, as redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks and Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire have both underwhelmed to start the year.
I will admit that we’ve lost a little line value here with the total dropping from 43 to 41½ but in a game that finished 13-6 last year featuring two limited offenses, I’ll consider anything 40 or lower as a gift and take it gladly. Fun Fact: If you combined both of the last two games between these two teams together, you’d still only have 35 total points. This will be a three yards and a cloud of dust “slobberknocker” type of game with both offenses being almost a mirror image of each other, so we’ll call for a final in the 16-10 range with the Gators holding on at home in the swamp.
Memphis / Central Florida Over 67½
This game was featured in our series for week two but due to the havoc Hurricane Irma wreaked on the state of Florida, it was a late addition for this weekend. The Central Florida offense is up an up tempo spread attack orchestrated by former Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost and run by his protege sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton who is a dual threat type of passer. His supporting cast has two NFL level players in junior receiver TreQuan Smith and tight end Jordan Akins, who was a third round draft pick by the Texas Rangers of MLB. Both are playmakers but the strength of this team is an offensive line that boasts 100+ career starts and they get to tee off on a soft Tigers defense has given up 100-plus rushing yards in every single game and their secondary has been torched to start the year with 10 passing touchdowns allowed. After giving up 31 points and four passing touchdowns to Southern Illinois last week, Memphis’ 3-4 scheme clearly has issues stopping the pass as well as the run.
Mike Norvell runs a lot of RPOs, he operates primarily out of the pistol and they have surrounded quarterback Riley Ferguson with talented receivers in seniors Phil Mayhue and Anthony Miller. They will likely be without senior runningback Doroland Dorceus (leg), so his backups Patrick Taylor Jr and Darrell Henderson will continue to lead the way. The Tigers work an up tempo approach that should keep the Knights’ odd front on their toes, especially with a new look secondary that returns zero starters from last year. Central has one of the better stories in college football in all conference linebacker Shaquem Griffin who was born without a left hand but regardless of his fabulous play, the Knights defense lost seven starters from last year’s team including five of their six leading tacklers. Memphis also has a dynamic kick returner in Tony Pollard, who now has four career kickoff returns for touchdowns.
The Friday forecast in Orlando is calling for some rain but considering how poor both of these rushing defenses are, putting points up on the board in a slugfest shouldn’t be a problem here. This total opened up around 71 and has now dropped to 67½, which is actually a point lower than the original total from week two. This game is sure to be a scoreboard watcher and I’ll still call for a 44-38 Memphis win on the road in a statement conference game to send the Tigers to 4-0.
Colorado St / Hawaii Over 65½
This play is certainly in the running for the “degenerate special” with this being the last game on the card, starting at midnight in what could be a bailout situation for a lot of bettors. This Hawaii offense is a read option scheme that features a mobile passer in Dru Brown and now in their second year in this scheme, the Rainbow Warriors are averaging 30.8 points per game. Nick Rolovich runs his offense out of the pistol and shotgun in spread formations but he relies heavily on the running game and senior back Diocemy Saint Juste who has run for 554 yards rushing through four games. While the Rams’ defense hasn’t been the doormat it was last year, there’s still plenty of holes on the backend namely cornerback Anthony Hawkins who is a liability in coverage. Hawaii has a senior tight end that is an under the radar prospect at the next level in Metuisela ‘Unga who could be a big mismatch for this Rams’ secondary.
Mike Bobo’s offenses at Georgia and Colorado State have always featured multiple sets and a ton of formation variety. From power pro sets, to unbalanced jumbo packages and even mutiple receiver sets in stacked formations, Bobo disguises what they do well and forced mismatches with his variant offense. Senior quarterback Nick Stevens hasn’t been consistent this year with struggles against Alabama and Colorado but against a suspect Hawaii defense that gave up eight passing touchdowns in their first three games, you can expect him to hook up with senior wideout Michael Gallup early and often here. Gallup is an NFL level talent and should torch this secondary, while the combination of senior Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews at runningback should keep the offense ahead of the chains.
This number has moved in our favor from 69 down to 65½ and while that might indicate sharp money on the UNDER, this game is going to be a back and forth type of score fest especially with a motivated Hawaii team that has lost six in a row to Colorado State. The last three meetings between these teams all hit the OVER and with both squads having experienced quarterbacks, this final smells of a 41-38 Colorado State win and a Hawaii cover on the island early Sunday morning.
Ben Burns
Air Force vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico +2½
Next Saturday, Air Force will play its annual game against Navy. The winner of that game almost always goes on to win the Commander-in-Chief Trophy. First, however, the Falcons must take on New Mexico.
Off back-to-back losses against difficult opponents (Michican and SDSU) many are likely going to expect the Falcons to bounce back with a big win against a "weaker" team like New Mexico. However, that may be easier said than done. Keep in mind that this Air Force team lost 12 of its top 13 tacklers from last season.
The Lobos, who always seem to give the Falcons a tough game, should come in with some confidence. They just upset Tulsa last game. With Air Force possibly looking ahead to next week, take a look at New Mexico.
Larry Ness
Northern Illinois vs. San Diego St
Pick: Northern Illinois +10
San Diego State came into the 2017 season off back-to-back 11-win seasons, each capped by impressive bowl wins, 42-7 over Cincinnati in 2015 and 34-10 over Houston (as a four-point 'dog) in 2016. SDSU was un-ranked to open the year but wins at Arizona State (30-20) and 20-17 at home over then-No. 19 Stanford, as well as victories over UC-Davis and Air Force), has the 4-0 Aztecs at No. in the latest AP poll. Visiting Qualcomm Stadium late Saturday night will Northern Illinois program which knows more than just a little about winning in recent years. The Huuskies won 1 or more games in a five-year stretch from 2010 through 2014 and their run of seven straight winning seasons (and bowl trips) didn't end until last year's 5-7 mark. North Illinois is 2-1 to open the 2017 season, after an unexpected 21-17 upset of the Nebraska as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog. Northern Illinois lost its season opener 23-20 at BC (was a 3 1/2-point favorite), so comes in 3-0 ATS in 2017.
Northern Illinois was out-gained 384-286 and had the ball for under 24 minutes against Nebraska but the defense returned two interceptions for TDs (87 and 25 yards) to take a 14-0 lead. That defense is allowing 16.7 PPG (21st) on 303.3 YPG (26th). After falling behind the Cornhuskers 17-14, the Huskies took the lead with just under nine minutes left in the fourth quarter and hung on for the win. Starting QB Ryan Graham was hurt in the season opener (that three-point loss to BC) with sophomore Daniel Santacaterina taking over. He has completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 380 yards, with three TDs and one INT. Santacaterina is 3-0 as NIU's starting QB, including a win over Kent St last season.
The Aztecs survived a road trip against the Air Force Falcons, coming away with a well-earned 28-24 win as a 1 1/2-point favorite. SDSU won the yardage battle 367-253 and allowed less then four yards per carry to the vaunted Falcons rushing attack and forced four fumbles, although there were no fumble recoveries. San Diego State relied on its own running game and Rashaad Penny responded with 128 yards on 20 carries with three TDs, while Juwan Washington added another 68 yards on 14 carries. Perry already has 716 rushing yards (second-most in the nation), on 7.9 YPC with seven TDs for a team averaging 228.5 YPG (26th). QB Christian Chapman has provided some valuable production in the air, completing 66.7 percent for 660 yards with five TDs and importantly, just one interception in 84 attempts.
I like a lot about San Diego State and will note that the Aztecs are 4-0 for the first time since 1981 and only the second time in the program’s last 42 seasons. However, this is a lot of points to give to a team which is an impressive 17-5 as a road dog going back to 2008. SDSU depends on its rushing game and Northern Illinois' first three opponents, Boston College, Eastern Illinois and Nebraska, have averaged 2.96, 1.33 and 2.36 YPC, respectively.
Harry Bondi
MIAMI-OHIO (+21) over Notre Dame
The popular narrative is that Brian Kelly and the Irish have got their act together following a home loss to Georgia three weeks ago. And while N.D. has rebounded with two wins and two covers the last two weeks, we’re not impressed. The first win came against a weak Boston College team in a game that was 14-10 in the third quarter. Last week, the Irish left Michigan State with a 38-18 win, but were the beneficiary of three Spartan turnovers and were actually outgained in total yards. Under Kelly, ND is famous for playing down to its competition. They are also just 4-14 ATS as a home favorite of more than a TD when coming off a win. Miami-Ohio is a senior-laden team that will treat this game like it’s their Super Bowl. The Red Hawks have also covered 14 of their last 21 on the road and 10 of their last 15 as an underdog. Take the points!
Micah Roberts
Colorado / UCLA Under 68
This game is going to stay Under the total just because the Buffs offense isn't going to produce much, and they know it so the pressure will be on the defense to keep UCLA's offense in check like last seasons 20-10 Buffs win at Boulder. Colorado has stayed Under in 11 of its 14 Pac-12 games. UCLA has gone Over in all four this season, which is why this number is so high.
3G-Sports
Georgia vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee +9
After losing to Florida on the game's final play, Tennessee had a hangover last week and nearly lost to downtrodden UMass before slinking away with a 17-13 win and looking ahead to this game. Saturday's game against Georgia presents an excellent spot play for the Volunteers, and coach Butch Jones' future with the program might depend on the outcome. Despite its maddening inconsistency. Tennessee outplayed Florida most of the way and should at least by able to stay within a touchdown of the Bulldogs at Neyland Stadium as Georgia usually struggles with Tenn. Look for a low scoring game and the VOLS to get the cover +9.
Chase Diamond
Arizona State vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -17
This game features 2-2 Arizona State at 2-2 Stanford. A great spot to play Stanford here Arizona State off huge upset against the Ducks of Oregon and Stanford though 2-2 really came back and spanked a good UCLA team last week at home I think you will see the same tonight against a weak ASU team despite records being the same this is no contest on the field. These two teams have not played since 2014. Stanford is a money making 16-7 69% ATS versus in conference teams.
Nelly
Air Force - over New Mexico
In jeopardy of a potential four-game slide with this tough matchup ahead, New Mexico delivered a narrow road upset last week at Tulsa. The Lobos have received decent play from their backup quarterback Coltin Gerhart but he has had turnovers and provides much less potential in the passing game. New Mexico has had great success in this series with five ATS wins in a row and S/U wins each of the last two seasons as a double-digit underdog. Air Force still doesn't have a FBS win this season but the Falcons have competed well against elite defensive teams the past two games hanging tough at Michigan and losing a tight game with San Diego State last week. Air Force has great special teams play and catching the Lobos off a huge win should help the Falcons get back on track in this series as the Falcons look to recover from a disappointing defeat. Despite a big disparity in the quality of the defenses faced the rushing numbers are very similar and New Mexico's defense has fared well against the pass this season but that won't come into play in this matchup. This will also be the smallest favorite spread for Air Force in this series the past three years with the line over a touchdown each of the past three seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
TENNESSEE +9 over Georgia
It's always critical to determine why the games play out the way they do after the fact, and whether the outcome reveals more strength in the victor or weakness in the vanquished. Georgia logged a massive win last week over Mississippi State the week after Mississippi State whacked LSU. That Georgia/MSU game last week was broken down a million ways and was tabbed as one of the marquee matchups of the day. State was never in it, as Georgia rolled them from start to finish to move well up the rankings and into the conversation as a playoff contender. You will now pay extra points to get behind the Dawgs at Rocky Top in this one.
We always want to make identification of teams’ coming off a lopsided win against a good opponent because they are almost always overvalued the next time out. We touched on Conquering Heroes' syndrome in the past, pointing out Alabama's miserable track record in Week 2 games immediately following a marquee win in one of the season's big opening week neutral-site clashes. Bama never threatened to cover a big number against Fresno State, and Michigan fell victim to the same issue, turning in a lackluster performance as a heavy favorite the week after its demolition of Florida. Georgia is a great candidate to follow suit this week, coming off an emotional win and spotting nearly double digits to a team that can win outright over just about anyone and that includes the Bulldogs. Our outlook on Kirby Smart's Georgia program is and has been one of general optimism, but the Dawgs look to be a year or two of quarterback development, offensive line recruiting and general depth-building away from becoming a legitimate top 10 team. While the Dawgs are a great program that has gotten off to a great start, they may be the most overvalued team on today’s card.
Coastal Carolina +7½ over UL MONROE
The Warhawks are one of the most talked about mid-major teams this week after they orchestrated an upset of their cross-state enemies, UL-Lafayette on the road in the 2017 edition of The Battle of the Bayou. The Warhawks went into Lafayette as a mid-range underdog and pulled off a 56-50 overtime win. Adopting contrarian philosophies is a strategy we employ and that places Monroe in our crosshairs. The Warhawks come into a spot that we savor, as it presents an optimal opportunity to target them. The hunters have now become the hunted, as Monroe is spotting considerable points to visiting Coastal Carolina, a team that has hit a nasty skid as of late.
The Chanticleers crashed the gates when they won their first ever FBS game in Conway on Labor Day weekend when they handled visiting Massachusetts. The Chanticleers were supremely undervalued but won the game decisively by a 38-28 final tally. While the victory does not hold much water in light of the Minutemen’s winless record on the year, the victory continued a surge of CC triumphs that showcased the level this team is capable of playing at. CC was a football team that lost only two games by a combined margin of two points in 2016 at the FCS level against two opponents ranked in the top-10. CC had extended their winning streak to eight games before embarking upon the two-game funk they are riding now. With a loss at UAB and a nasty spat against WIU where they fell 52-10, the mystique of the Chanticleers has swiftly evaporated. They can re-conjure it against the trendy Warhawks.
While the victory against Lafayette is one that is landmark for Monroe and a public service announcement to the masses it is worth highlighting the fact that the Warhawks held as much as a 16-point lead in the affair. Furthermore, the Warhawks also held a 14-point lead on two additional occasions late in the second half. One of those instances occurred with seven minutes remaining in the contest. Despite Lafayette owning the worst defense in the FBS, the Ragin Cajuns were able to never let the game get out of control and managed to send the affair to overtime on a late rally when they scored in the final moments of regulation. Two overtimes were required for Monroe to pull off the upset. Essentially, the Warhawks had to throw the kitchen sink at Lafayette to get rid of them and even then, they had to sweat out the match until the Cajuns ran out of gas. After such a hard-fought victory, Monroe could easily get snared against a Coastal Carolina team looking to end their woes. While UL Monroe basks in the glory of such a relevant win against such a hated rival, the Chanticleers can come in here and not only cover but pull off the upset. This is the first Sun Belt game for CC so they can easily forget about what happened in the past two weeks and focus on raising havoc in this conference be that they don’t get a bowl game this season due to transitional requirements. With a Monroe team sitting in a position it is not accustomed to being in, (the favorite, let alone a significant favorite), chances are it is not equipped to spot this amount of points.
Syracuse +14 over N.C. STATE
Targeting overreactions is something we preach on a day-to-day basis. North Carolina State’s 27-21 win at Florida State as a 10½-point road pooch has creating one here. Florida State entered the 2017-18 season as a very popular choice to win the ACC and qualify for the College Football Playoff. Although Florida State lost its starting quarterback in its season opener when they were handled by Alabama by a score of 24-7, a presiding presumption was that the Seminoles vaunted defense combined with home cooking would have been able to get it done against the Wolfpack. After all, Florida State also had extensive time to prepare given the fact their September 9th contest with UL Monroe was postponed due to Hurricane Irma’s impacts and also given the fact they had a bye in the week in between. Instead, NC State marched in and won their third straight game further driving their stock.
Syracuse comes in off a 35-26 loss at LSU. The Orange would cover a lofty three-touchdown plus line but this did not seem to raise as many eyebrows as it normally would have, likely because LSU looked abysmal when Mississippi State routed the Bayou Bengals in the week previous. With ‘Cuse owning an outright loss at home as a 7½-point favorite against Middle Tennessee State and just one win against a FBS opponent (Central Michigan) on the year, Syracuse offers little appeal. When the one win against a FBS opponent came at home and the competition hails from a Group of Five conference, the outlook becomes even more grim considering NC State gets to play this one at home. North Carolina State has also won the last three in this series.
Generally speaking, Carter-Finley Stadium is known as one of the toughest places to play in all of college football. The Wolfpack fan base is one that is rabid. Though the Wolfpack may not have as prestigious or accomplished track records compared to some of their more illustrious colleagues, NC State supporters are diehards and have a knack for getting in visitors’ faces. Combining that with the fuel they’ll be fed off the Florida State win, it seems the Orange have a lot of trouble awaiting them in Raleigh. However, N.C. State has already lost a game at home this year that it was supposed to win. As a -7½-point choice, the Wolfpack were defeated by the South Carolina Gamecocks. Though State accumulated double what SC did in terms of offensive production, Cocky was able to get up to a two-touchdown lead.
Syracuse comes in here with an offense that scores 35 points per game and ranks 25th in passing yards per game (300 yards per game). Both teams are likely to leave their pass defenses at home, so this has all the makings of a shootout. Academically, taking the points when a touchdown or more is offered is a prudent move in contests of this variety. However, this can be easily thrown out the window if one elects to sip the N.C. State Kool-Aid thanks to their big win last week. Though Kool-Aid tastes good and causes a sugar rush, it also produces a crash if you drink too much. N.C. State is set-up to do just that in this spot.
FRESNO ST -9½ over Nevada
We're extremely high on a Fresno State squad that has done some really nice things this year already that has gone essentially unnoticed but we are even more pessimistic about the new regime at Nevada than we were about the last one. If our reads are right, this is a quality favorite at home facing what might be one of the bottom-10 teams in the FBS. The usual difference in that scenario is easily more than 21 points. The end-around to capitalizing on the mismatch while ducking what is often a slow start by the favorite and avoiding asking a team to win too big is to wait and seek value during the game or at halftime but what don’t see that happening here.
You see, Fresno State was off last week after losing its last two by scores of 41-10 and 48-16. On paper, that looks awful but those two losses occurred against #1 Alabama and #6 Washington. Fresno State moved the chains all day against Alabama but knew that FG’s would do nothing so they were stopped on some fourth down attempts. They didn’t have as much in them against Washington but the step down in class here is one of mammoth proportions that this number does not reflect. We often say that there is a price to play for scheduling games against weak opponents but the opposite holds true also. There is a big reward for scheduling games against the best teams in the country and we’re strongly suggesting that Fresno State and its backers will reap those rewards here.
KENT STATE +7½ over Buffalo
The Buffalo Bulls are 2-2 this season but more importantly, it is 4-0 against the spread and now that the market is jumping on, we’re jumping off. Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams occasionally asked to spot significant points these days, especially in the less recently stabilized conferences. While the MAC is considered to be more stabilized than say Conference USA or the Sun Belt, Buffalo is still an unestablished commodity that brings far too much risk.
The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone by large margins. The Bulls fit this to a tee. Buffalo’s 34-31 win as 1½ -point chalk against Florida Atlantic was the Bulls' first turn laying points in an FBS game since 2015 and their first cover when favored in six tries. Now the number has gone up quite a bit more and frankly, it’s bordering on ludicrous. The Golden Flashes have already played Clemson and Louisville so playing the Bulls should appear in slow motion for them. Kent State getting 7½ at home to the Bulls is true value in a game they can absolutely win outright.
EAST CAROLINA +21 over South Florida
We’re not going to discuss ECU much here because this wager has very little to do with them. We are always in the buy-low/sell high business and that especially holds true in the early kickoffs, as the market teases and parlays targeted games in an attempt to get a head start on the day and have some live tickets later. Of all the early games, South Florida’s stock is the highest and therefore, they become our fade target.
The Bulls treated weeknight viewers to a pair of nationally televised blowouts of Illinois and Temple the past two weeks, outgaining those foes by a whopping 650 yards. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a special athlete, and there's plenty of offensive skill around him. This is a fast, physical, athletic roster, and all three phases are explosive and dangerous. However, USF is also self-destructive and we’re happy to be taking back an inflated priced against them on the road.
The Bulls' warts have been on display in all four games this season: too many penalties, boneheaded mistakes and discipline issues. The team often plays fast and hard but not smart, and the offense is prone to lulls and occasional wasted possessions. Charlie Strong inherited a ready-made team, but he doesn't have full control of it yet. The Bulls are dangerous to themselves and others, and while they'll explode and rout a few more teams this year, we aren't trusting them with our money.
That's largely because the Bulls are now a ranked commodity. Willie Taggart changed the offense to an up-tempo scheme that fit Flowers well in 2015, and the result was a 10-3 ATS record in a year in which USF went 8-5 for its first winning season in five years. Last year, Flowers took another step, as the offense averaged more than 500 yards per game and the Bulls broke out with an 11-2 season. The prices still hadn't quite caught up, and the ATS record was still strong despite slipping to 8-5. This year, the value has faded. There are lofty expectations, especially regarding the explosive talent on offense, and the gaudy blowouts on weeknight television are only fueling them. South Florida is now being asked to lay prices never before seen in program history, and while the expected athleticism has been on display, indications are that the maturity, discipline and consistency are sketchy enough to run from investing.
NEW MEXICO +116 over Air Force
Of the two teams featured in this Mountain West bout, the Falcons of Air Force certainly own the higher profile. Under Coach Troy Calhoun, the Falcons have assembled two 10-win seasons in their previous three campaigns (2014 and 2016) and participated in the 2015 Mountain West Championship Game. Besides being a fan favorite as a United States Military Academy institution, the Falcons are the team in the Mountain West that seem to have Boise State’s number. The Falcons have won three in a row against the Broncos and though this may not seem pertain to this contest, it does in that ‘Thunder and Lightning’ have single-handedly reshaped the landscape of this league by showing that the traditional Goliath of this conference is beatable. The Falcons are that “one rock”. All those factoids have an influence on the perception of this market. With Air Force also engaging in a dog-fight with the current big dog of the Mountain West, San Diego State, the Falcons seem positioned to once again be primed for a 10-win season and perhaps a contender for the Mountain West if they were to cross paths with the Aztecs again in the Conference Championship Game at season’s end. Air Force led on two occasions against SDSU. They led by as much as nine points at one juncture and held a lead late in the fourth quarter before the two-time defending MWC Champs would slip away in a 28-24 heartbreaker. Performances such as these often set up teams for a huge let-down in their follow-up.
For the Lobos, the concussion bug has created a quarterback carousel. Two weeks ago, New Mexico lost its starting signal caller Lamar Jordan due to a helmet-to-helmet hit sustained against Boise State. With back-up Tevaka Tuioti who also split time with Jordan shelved thanks to injuries of a similar nature, New Mexico had to turn to its third-string quarterback Cotlin Gerhart to get the job done. New Mexico would lose and head into Tulsa as a 10-point road pup, seemingly positioned to be a sacrificial lamb to the Golden Hurricane in its own den. With many suggesting New Mexico was a sitting duck, Gerhart would be exceptional on the ground and rush for 156 yards and a touchdown. New Mexico would go on to a complete the upset thanks mostly in part to the play of its defense, which has been stout against the run all season long. The Lobos managed to mitigate a Tulsa offense averaging 47 points a game and 364 yards on the ground to just 13 points and 155 yards rushing. With Air Force being a run specialist in its own right, the Lobos match-up well with the Falcons.
The Lobos have won three of the last four against the Falcons and they are playing this one at home in Albuquerque. Nevertheless, given the perception of Air Force compared to New Mexico, many in this market see the Falcons as a steal. After all, Air Force’s losses came at #7 Michigan and against aforementioned #22 San Diego State, both of which have a bit of shine to them. New Mexico lost to New Mexico State earlier this year, which on paper looks terrible. However, New Mexico will have Lamar Jordan back at the helm for this contest and he can throw as well as run. In fact, Jordan threw for 328 yards in two and a half weeks before his injury. Air Force left it all on the field the past two weeks and especially last week against SDSU in what was a deceptively physical game. The Falcons are spent and a New Mexico team that's just hitting its stride is a tough assignment coming off games against two ranked opponents.
San Jose St +14½ over UNLV
In finding value in the numbers, certain teams’ stock is so low that they bode exceptional value. Such is the case regarding San Jose State. As a whole, the Spartans are a tough sale. San Jose is known as a cupcake and they have performed like one so far in 2017. The Spartans have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent and their four losses this year are difficult to stomach. Currently, the Spartans are riding a three-game losing streak and have given up 54 points or more in each of their three defeats. In their most recent outing, Utah State would come in as a two-point choice and hammer SJSU 61-10 on the Spartans’ own field. San Jose’s stock couldn’t be much lower, thus creating this opportunity. Make no mistake that San Jose State is being offered an inflated price here and UNLV is not good enough to be spotting inflated prices.
We would be remiss to conjure up what was a historical anecdote in 2017 and the Rebels were a part of it. UNLV is the owner of the biggest upset in college football history at an against-the-spread level. The Rebels were not the authors of this triumphant tale, they were the subject of it. As a 45-point home choice in Week 1, the Rebels would fall to the Howard Bison, a FCS team by a score of 43-40. Since this catastrophic defeat, UNLV would stage a rout of visiting Idaho when they squashed the Vandals 44-16 in their follow-up. The Rebels would get a bye and then head to The Horseshoe and cover a 40½ -point spread in a 54-21 loss against Ohio State. Seemingly all has been forgotten about the Howard debacle but this is another good spot to fade the Rebels.
You see, UNLV was on a major stage last week in Ohio State so many people were able to get a glimpse of them when they covered and put up 21 points in the process. The week prior, UNLV whacked Idaho 44-16 and easily covered that one too. That’s two straight covers for the Rebels while SJSU has lost its last three by scores of 56-0, 54-16. and 61-10 respectively. That’s a combined 171-26, which is something that resonated loudly in this market when UNLV opened as a 9½-point favorite and was subsequently bet up to this current price. Don’t get caught up in fading the Spartans here because if you do, you’re playing them at a bad number. We’ll play them at a very good number and watch them respond after three humiliating losses against a very beatable team host.
Chris Jordan
Now it's another underdog, as I like the Northern Illinois Huskies to give San Diego State a run for its money, in a game the Aztecs will likely overlook.
San Diego State is likely as good as advertised, and is proving the loss of Donnel Pumphrey hasn't screwed up any plans of getting back to the Mountain West Championship. But I also know how rugged this team from DeKalb, Illinois can be, and it will challenge for the outright win.
Rashaad Penny, whose 716 yards rank second in the nation, has made fans miss Pumphrey a little less. But today may be the day they start missing the all-time college rusher. The Huskies defense has allowed a mere 3.6 yards per play, and while this will be their toughest test to date, it'll be Penny's hardest-hitting stop unit to face.
The Aztecs beat up on Northern Illinois last year in DeKalb. That memory stings, and the Huskies will be looking for revenge. They're a live dog, while San Diego State is ripe for a letdown.
Play the road pup.
1* NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FRANK SAWYER
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
Play: Northwestern +16
One of my biggest caveats from endorsing this play for my clients is that Wisconsin (3-0) has had the extra week to prepare for their Big Ten opener this afternoon — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games when playing with an extra week of rest and preparation. But while the Badgers come off a 40-16 win at BYU two weeks ago — they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Wisconsin has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Northwestern (2-1) has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games when getting 14.5 to 17 points. The Wildcats come off a 49-7 win over Bowling Green two weeks ago — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when holding their last opponent to 20 points or less.
JOHN RYAN
Florida State vs. Wake Forest
Play: Florida State -7
3 data trends cashing over 73% winners on the Seminoles
FSU is 98-36 when allowing 14 or less points since 1992
FSU is 12-3 when scoring 28 or more points since 1992
FSU is 8-1 when allowing less than 4 yards per play.
Round Table Discussion Points
The Seminoles come into this one with an 0-2 record while Wake Forest is 4-0. This is a Florida State team who many tight could be in the BCS Playoff at the start of the season. FSU lost to Alabama to open the season and then had two games postponed due to the hurricanes then lost the conference opener at home to NC State. This now becomes a big game for the Seminoles to get the season back on track. The last 2 in this series have been close with the Seminoles coming in as big favorites the previous 3 games before that were blowouts by the Seminoles. FSU brings a very strong defense and we feel will shut down the Wake Forest Offense and with the last two being real close the Seminoles will be focused in this one and are laying a little over a touchdown. This is the first time the line is not over 3 touchdowns in this series in some time. We look for FSU to have a big day today and get the season back on track.
Sports Wagers Pass MLB & CFL
Eric Schroeder
Man do I love the Memphis Tigers against this overinflated, and overrated Central Florida team.
To be honest, I can't believe the line is what it is.
Let's start with the offenses, as I have the 30th best offense in the nation, including one that terrorized UCLA's defense, and pulled off a 48-45 victory.
Yeah, yeah, yeah ... Central Florida has allowed 13.5 points per game, but anyone can spout stats and numbers in this team's case. Fact is, the Knights beat up Florida International, had their original game with Memphis postponed, then saw the game with Georgia Tech canceled before beating up Maryland.
I haven't seen enough - nobody has - to make an accurate gauge with this team.
The offense is suspect, while Memphis comes in tested after games against Louisiana Monroe, UCLA and Southern Illinois.
Sometimes numbers don't tell the story, they simply give people reason to believe false pictures that don't look deeper into situations.
Fact is, Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson has proven he can be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and will be up to the task today against an unproven defense that, again, hasn't shown me a thing in two games surrounded by Irma-affected games.
How good is Memphis? Some are saying this is the preview of the AAC Championship game.
I'll take the road dog with an extremely talented offense led by Ferguson, and hope for an outright win.
3* MEMPHIS