Jason Sharpe
Boise State / Washington State Under 58.5
Both of these two teams have well-known quarterbacks leading their teams, which gives them the reputation of bring more of an offensive team, but the fact is their defenses carried both of them in Week 1, allowing a combined 13 points for the week. I made this total in the low 50s, so looks to be lots of value here in this one. Go 'under' the total here.
Alan Harris
Calgary vs. Edmonton
Play: Over 56
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Calgary Stampeders hit the road to take on the Edmonton Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton, AB, on Saturday night. Calgary has posted a perfect 6-0-1 record to the over in their last seven games played in the month of September, and they have gone an excellent 5-1 to the over in their last six games following an ATS win. The Eskimos have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last four games versus a West Division rival and they are 8-3 to the over in their last eleven Week 12 games. They have also gone up and over the number in seven of their last ten games when facing a team with a winning % of .500 or higher and they are a lights out 13-6 to the over in their last nineteen home games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone over the number in their last four head-to-head meetings, including a 39-18 win by Calgary on Monday, and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to struggle a bit to get defensive stops in Edmonton on Saturday evening.
Ian Cameron
Tulane -13
Tulane struggled in Willie Fritz’s first season on the job (4-8 ) be he has a very distinguished history of his teams improving from Year 1 to Year 2. Central Missouri jumped from 5-6 to 8-3 in Fritz's second year. At Sam Houston State; 6-5 to 14-1. And most recently, Georgia Southern where the Eagles went 8-4 and reached the postseason. It is reasonable to expect an uptick at Tulane and I think it happens thanks to one of the better defenses in the AAC. Eight starters are back from a unit that allowed only 364.5 ypg. And in last year’s very competitive 21-14 loss to Navy, Tulane held the Midshipmen to a respectable 287 yards and 5.2 ypc on the ground both marks below Navy’s seasonal averages (310 rypg/5.9 ypc). Offensively, Tulane may have found one of their most talented quarterback in some time with JC transfer Jonathan Banks earning the starting job in camp. When Banks was asked to throw the football last week in his first start, he completed 10-of-15 passes for 185 yards and a 3-0 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for a team-high 69 yards.
Navy quarterback Zach Abey benefited from getting thrown into the fire late last season after starter Will Worth went down with an injury. Important to note that Worth was actually a fairly polished passer. He missed two games and still threw for nearly 1,400 yards and a stellar 11.9 ypa. But one of his worst showings of the year came against Tulane (5-of-12, 59 yards). Abey hasn’t shown nearly as much acumen in the passing game (3-for-10 in Week 1). Passing obviously isn’t a big part of either team’s game plan but whatever team is able to hit on a few big plays through the air will be on the fast track to a pointspread cover and I see Tulane as having the edge with Banks.
Tulane has outgained four of its last five opponents dating back to last season which speaks to Fritz’s ability to develop talent. And last year’s loss to. Navy came in Week 3; the infant stages of a complete program overhaul. Navy was not favored by double digits against a single FBS foe last season so this is somewhat of a rarified pointspread range. Tulane on the rise and more than capable of making this a one score affair.
Rob Veno
Marshall at NC State
Play: Under 55
Complete opposite results for these teams in Week 1 as NC State clearly won the box score and lost to South South Carolina while Marshall lost the box score but managed to beat Miami-Ohio. The Thundering Herd’s 31-26 win was propelled by 99- and 97-yard kickoff return touchdowns plus a 72-yard pick six. Aside from that, Marshall mustered 10 offensive points and 267 total yards. The most troubling aspect is the fact that their rushing attack was non-existent with only 67 true rushing yards on 24 carries (2.8 ypc). Defensively they had issues as well allowing Gus Ragland to throw for 298 yards and gain 429 overall. Those numbers are 67 and 62 yards above Miami’s averages last season and they are 56 and 79 more than Marshall allowed in 2016. The offseason chatter about a much improved defense did not happen last Saturday against a decent but not overwhelming MAC offense.
NC State meanwhile was victimized by a game opening 97-yard kickoff return touchdown by South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel and a pair of long TD passes (34 and 39 yards). Outside of those passes, South Carolina’s much heralded sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley and the Gamecocks offense managed just 173 yards on 48 total plays for a miserable yards per play average of 3.6. The Wolfpack held every statistical edge including +17 in first downs (29-12), +49 in total plays (99-50), +258 in total yards (504-246), +13:22 in TOP (36:41-22:19) and they threw for 415 yards. The game ended with NC State failing on 4th-and-goal from the 6-yard line and they also missed a 29-yard field goal.
Expect the backwards results to reverse themselves this weekend as Marshall figures to have a difficult time running on the Wolfpack’s front seven and protecting Chase Litton. On the other side, Ryan Finley should have his way with the Marshall secondary and it’s also likely that Dave Doeren’s group will focus on establishing more of a ground game this week. Laying the asking price of -24.5 is a bit over a what my power ratings suggest is a comfortable threshold (-21.5) but this one does set up nicely for an “under.” The current number of 55 allows some leeway in this matchup which if the fundamentals play out, should land somewhere in the 38-10 range.
The Real Animal
Wisconsin -31.5
At one time the NBA was a head coach carousal. Guys like Del Harris, Doug Moe, Kevin Loughery, and Brian Hill seemed to resurface every season without ever winning anything. I think it's safe to say a college football version of that will be Lane Kiffin in years to come. Kiffin and his new team, Florida Atlantic University, allowed 526 yards and 6.1 a carry in the 42-19 home defeat to Navy last week. Kiffin is now 7-9 in his last 16 games coached at USC, Tennessee, and Florida Atlantic Does anybody remember his NFL stint with the Raiders at 5-15? I will never understand teams that desire mediocre coaches with a shaky track record at best. This week in Madison the Badgers don't figure to get off to a 10-0 deficit like they did against Utah State and then score 59 points consecutively. Wisconsin averaged 5.2 yards per carry and it's safe to assume the famed Badger offensive line has more size and strength than Navy. Plus QB Alex Hornibrook was 15-of-23 with three touchdowns and 244 yards passing. Hard to get better balance offensively than what Wisconsin displayed last week. Jonathan Taylor and Bradrick Shaw ran for 87 and 84 yards respectively while star receiver Troy Fumagalli averaged 21 yards a catch on five receptions. FAU probably glad to be out of the Sunshine state this weekend although there were three lightening delays last week in Madison. FAU defensive line only averages 265 pounds per man. Kiffin is only 4-15 ATS in his last 19 as a head coach. Meanwhile Coach Chryst has cashed 4/5 recently when laying 20 or more. Watch the Badgers go to 14-6 ATS or 70% in non-Big 10 games with a blowout of epic proportion.
Wunderdog
New Mexico St @ New Mexico
Pick: Over 72.5
The last four meetings have gone OVER, including New Mexico State's 32-31 win last year. The Aggies lost 37-31 at Arizona State in their opener as they scored 18 points fourth quarter points to make it respectable. Tyler Rogers threw 57 times and completed 40 passes for 398 yards and three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Aggies accumulated 549 yards of offense and allowed the Sun Devils to rack up 400 total yards, including 300 through the air. New Mexico defeated FCS Abilene Christian while rushing for 259 yards on 40 carries by seven different players. Lamar Jordan was 11-of-17 for 213 yards and a touchdown for the Lobos. New Mexico gave up 31 points per game last season and only two starters return from that stop-unit and New Mexico State allowed 39 points per contest. The Aggies are 21-6-1 OVER their last 28 road games and 19-7 OVER their last 26 September games. New Mexico has gone OVER 19 of its last 26 home games and 12 of its last 16 overall. Also, the Lobos are 6-1 OVER after an ATS loss.
Mike Anthony
Cincinnati vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -34
Michigan QB, Wilton Speight, is still greatly disrespected, even with a solid arm. He has played well vs some great conference competition, racking up big wins vs the better ended teams in the league. Michigan has been really solid with their defense this season, and their ferocious line will do it yet again. Cincinnati has got to try and run the ball more, only 3.34 YPC in their last game. Cincinnati's Oline has to try and not get stuck standing around while their talented RB, Mike Boone, is trying to move the ball on the ground. Missing tackles has been another big problem for the LBs of Cincinnati, not good vs a strong running team like Michigan. Bearcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
Matt Fargo
Auburn vs. Clemson
Play: Auburn +5.5
Clemson looked every bit as good last week as it did during its National Championship season a year ago as it rolled over Kent St. 56-3 but to say it steps up in class this week is an understatement. The Tigers broke in a lot of new pieces on offense but they did not miss a beat as they racked up 678 yards of offense with excellent balance. One of the best defenses in the nation last season looked just as sharp as well as they held the Golden Flashes to just 120 total yards and five first downs. It did not help the Kent St. cause as it threw the ball only five time the entire game and Clemson will see more balance this week. Auburn defeated Georgia Southern by 34 points but that margin of victory does not show the absolute domination by the Tigers. Auburn outgained the Eagles 535-78 and 25-8 in first downs and the defense was the real story. Georgia Southern did not get a first down until its seventh possession and the only points scored were off a fumble returned for a touchdown. Auburn could have won by much more but it committed three turnovers while missing two field goals early in the game. Additionally, the Tigers punted only one time and while they take a step up in competition as well, they are the better matchup here despite hitting the road. They are a big sleeper team in the SEC as they have 15 starters back and are the 7th most experienced team in the country. Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game while Clemson is 1-4 in its last five games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.
Freddy Wills
Fresno State vs. Alabama
Play: Fresno State +44
I look for Fresno State to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year after a 1-11 season. They were not as bad as their record showed as they had a lead in 6 games by 14 or a 4th quarter lead. This year they bring in a new head coach in Jeff Tedford and they have 10 returning starters on offense 6 on defense. Their strength on defense is their defensive line with 7 of their top 8 guys returning. Not to say Alabama will have any problem moving the ball in this one.
Alabama’s offense did not look great last week and their defense and special teams really bailed them out. I expect a huge hang over here and I expect Alabama to be going through the motions. Nick Saban is 3-7 ATS in week #2, and that’s typically because Alabama has to prepare and get up for a national game on a neutral site and when they play the following week it’s all about recovering. I think it’s also worth noting that they will want to really run this game out. They already lost 2 starting linebackers for the season and they just witnessed Florida State’s QB being lost for the season to end the game. I don’t see them messing around in this game.
Worth noting is the fact that Fresno had the #33 special teams unit last year and returns everyone. Alabama still has the edge, but Fresno should be able to get a field goal or two to help them cover this spread.
Larry Wallace
South Carolina vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -2½
Going with the Missouri Tigers against South Carolina. The Tigers have fire power this year. They racked up 72 points last week and 815 total yards. Drew Lock passed for 521 yards and 7 touchdowns. Missouri will be more balanced this week and will need to control the clock. Crockett could make a case this year as one of the best running backs in the SEC.
Marc Lawrence
Middle Tennessee State vs. Syracuse
Play: Middle Tennessee State +10
Edges - Blue Raiders: Head coach Stockstill 5-0 ATS career after his team scored 10 or less points, and Stockstill 8-1 ATS in last nine game following a loss of 20 or more points… Orange: 6-19 SU and 8-17 ATS lined home games following a home game; and head coach Babers 1-3 SU and 0-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite in his career. With Raiders off their lowest scoring output at home since 2009, we recommend a 1* play on Middle Tennessee State.
Drew Martin
Stanford at USC
Play: USC -5.5
Key early season conference tilt in the PAC-12 with Stanford heading to USC. The Cardinal got the better of the Trojans last season, 27-10, in a similar conference opener setting. The results should reverse on Saturday as Stanford has the dubious task of coming in off of what I believe to be an unproductive bye week after opening the season with a 62-7 blowout win in Australia over weakling Rice. Last season, Stanford opened with a win over Kansas State, had a bye week, and they dispatched the Trojans in Palo Alto. While that appears similar situation-wise, there are some distinct differences. For one, Stanford never left campus. Their win over Kansas State was at home, followed by a bye, and then another home game vs. USC. And the Wildcats served as a "real" opponent, one that no doubt helped better prepare Stanford for its looming matchup against the Trojans. There was no resistance whatsoever in Week 1 as Rice grades out as one of the worst teams in college football. And there was obviously a lot of time spent traveling and adjusting to the unique environment.
Meanwhile, USC got a test and some against pesky Western Michigan. The Broncos may have lost head coach PJ Fleck but the core of the team remains and the Trojans were very complimentary of WMU's Big Ten-esque talent. In the end, USC pulled away 49-31 and while they failed to cover the pointspread, I feel as if the experience better serves this squad for Saturday rather than rolling up a weak Mountain West outfit by 40 points. I think the betting markets are discounting USC a tad here after its less-than-stellar performance. Combine that with the overreaction to Stanford's blow out and the false benefit of a bye week and less than a touchdown becomes an attractive price for the home side.
Otto Sports
Florida Atlantic at Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -31.5
It was a nightmare matchup in Week 1 for Florida Atlantic as offensive-minded first-year head coach Lane Kiffin was tasked with game planning for Navy's option. The Owls managed to take a 10-7 lead midway through the second quarter but proceeded to be outscored 35-9 the rest of the way. The Midshipmen finished with 526 yards at 6.7 yards per clip. Now, FAU must figure out a way to stop an even more potent offense that can not only run the football but pass as well.
The Badgers struggled early on in Week 1 against Utah State and didn't score their first points until less than two minutes to go in the first half. Despite that, Wisconsin rolled up 59 points and and an ultra-balanced 234 yards on the ground and 244 yards through the air. While game planning for Navy is tricky, at least FAU could focus most of its efforts on stopping the run. The Owls' porous pass defense won't be able to hide on Saturday.
There is a difference between "exciting" and "successful" and while Kiffin remains one of the brighter offensive minds in the game, this season is going to have plenty of pitfalls. There will be chances to outscore the opposition in conference play but FAU simply isn't built to compete in Saturday's environment. Lay the points with confidence.
Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh at Penn State
Play: Under 64
Last season, Pittsburgh was involved in exactly one "under" against FBS competition; a 31-24 bowl loss to Northwestern that had plenty of chances late to cash an "over" late. There were a number of reasons behind such a strong trend. For starters, the Panthers scored big both literally and figuratively with the hiring of offensive coordinator Matt Canada who is one of the brightest minds in the game. He took a below average offensive (82nd, 377.5 ypg) and helped produced one of the bigger spikes in production in the country (38th, 446.8 ypg). Pitt averaged more yards per play (6.71) than Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State and was one of only 11 teams to net more than 40 ppg. But that scoring output didn't necessarily equate to whom Pitt really was. Based on Pitt's total yardage, the offense "should" have averaged closer to 30 ppg but if you remember anything about the 2016 season you're well aware that craziness was the norm in Panther games. Non-offensive touchdowns, turnovers, defensive mishaps; pretty much every "pro offense" occurrence that could happen happened on a routine basis when Pitt played. The offense was no doubt good, and the defense, really bad, but with Canada (LSU), underrated starting quarterback Nathan Peterman (NFL), running back James Conner (NFL), and a big chunk of the offensive line gone, I expect Pitt games to average at many as 15 ppg less than last year's ridiculous 76.1 ppg. When caught a glimpse of much more "traditional" football in Week 1 as Pitt needed overtime to beat FCS Youngstown State, 28-21. Even with the extra frame, the Panthers gained only 348 yards on 4.5 yards per play.
The concern for this week is how does Pitt stop Penn State? The Panthers gave up a ton of big play/quick scores last season and the Nittany Lions are loaded with playmakers. Penn State could have easily scored 70+ in Week 1's 52-0 win over Akron and obviously won't hold back after losing at Pitt last season 42-39. But I look for PSU's defense to thrive in this matchup. Ravaged by injuries a season ago, the Nittany Lions are healthy and primed to be a top 25 unit. This total was sitting at 68/68.5 for much of the week and has steadily been played under the total. Still worth a bet at the current number of 64.
Zack Cimini
Eastern Michigan vs. Rutgers
Pick: Rutgers -5.5
A curious line lies with host Rutgers taking on MAC opponent Eastern Michigan. A strong reason for the occurrence of a small line here is because of the Eagles senior starting quarterback in Brogan Roback. Roback is a fifth year senior that has started in a game every year since 2013. Look for special teams or a defensive touchdown to make up the ground for a Rutgers team lacking the fire power to cover this spread offensively.