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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, September 9th, 2017

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Chip Chirimbes

Iowa vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa St +3

Iowa greeted Wyoming's NFL candidate in an abrupt and rude fashion as the dominated the Cowboys 24-3 while State who was 3-9 last season defeated FCS Northern Iowa 42-24. Hawkeyes have had the best of it in the series but not to the point of assumption as they are 6-3 straight-up in the series. Note that Iowa won last years meeting 42-3 at home and Cyclones will look to atone as head coach Matt Campbell is 9-1 ATS as a dog against a team off a stright-up and ATS win. Take IOWA STATE!

Los Angeles vs. Seattle
Play: Seattle -109

The problem has been the same for a number of years with the Angels as they just don't have the pitching. Here they are in a dog fight for the final AL playoff spot and night after night they send out garbage time after time. Well, Saturday is no different as Heaney (1-1, 6.98 ERA) who has allowed 11 home runs in 19 innings of work. Seattle will start Alberts (3-1, 3.43) who has only allowed three homers in 21 innings. No pressure on Seattle...Take the MARINERS!

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 7:30 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Western Michigan at Michigan St
Play: Michigan St -7.5

Sparty is on a mission this year after last seasons debacle and they are off a solid win and cover last week at home. BIG 10 teams have dismantled the MAC Teams over the last 35+ seasons. Western Michigan is a nice team and hung with USC for awhile. However they tired badly late in the game on defense and could be demoralized after blowing the lead. First year coaches in non conference games that lost last week and are now facing a team off a win and cover have failed to cover every time the last 28 years if that opponent did not cover by 15 or more points. Many will take the points here. However Western Michigan they allowed over 500+ yards last week and that solid showing last week gives us nice line value here. Make it Michigan St.

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 7:34 am
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Brandon Shively

UNLV vs. Idaho
Pick: UNLV

The Rebels were completely embarrassed in Week 1 as they dropped to Howard in one of the biggest upsets in CFB history.

You know these players and coaches are itching to get back out there this Saturday. The whole country was on notice after the upset and now this is their chance to bounce back and earn some respect back.

This will be a game where the Rebels play with absolute fire lit underneath them and look to Lexington Thomas to be that explosive playmaker.

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 7:35 am
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Executive Sports

Iowa vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa St +2.5

Iowa State is a home dog to Big Ten Iowa, and they are seeking revenge from last year's big blowout loss (3-42). Last week they already got revenge in a big way against No.Iowa (42-24). Last year they had ranked TCU up next - this year they have Akron up next. Iowa St is 6-1 ATS in their past 7 home games and 8-2 ATS the past 10.

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 7:36 am
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Oskeim Sports

Northwestern at Duke
Play: Duke +3

Veteran head coach David Cutcliffe has done an outstanding job revitalizing Duke’s football program, leading the Blue Devils to their first ten-win season in school history and their first bowl win in 55 years.

Duke’s 4-8 finish in 2016 was certainly disappointing, but the Blue Devils were victimize by negative variance. For example, Duke’s first five conference losses were extremely competitive with each game within one possession in the fourth quarter.

Duke welcomes back seven starters on offense, including quarterback Daniel Jones, top running back Shaun Wilson and top wide receiver TJ Rahming. Jones was named ACC Rookie Player of the Week four times last season and threw for 2,836 yards with a 62.8% completion rate. He threw just one interception in the final seven games of 2016 and has a much more experienced wide receiving corp. this year.

Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles utilized a much more aggressive approach last year, which was a departure from his “bend-don’t-break” approach from year’s past. That aggressiveness allowed Duke to finish 2016 with one of the best red zone defenses in the nation.

Knowles’ new approach also showed signs of life, limiting Wake Forest, Army and Northwestern to 18 points per game and 5 yards per play (all three opponents were bowl teams).

The Blue Devils have significantly better depth on the defensive side of the ball this season (injuries depleted the unit last year), and it looks like Knowles finally has the players to successfully execute his new scheme.

Cutcliffe has recruited well over the years and has brought in a plethora of mid to high-three-star recruits at many skill positions. Many of those talented recruits are now sophomores, which is when many skill position players make their largest improvement.

The Blue Devils kicked off the 2017 campaign with a dominating 60-7 win over FCS foe North Carolina Central, scoring the most points in the Cutcliffe era.

Duke takes the field with legitimate revenge after suffering a 24-13 road loss to Northwestern last season in a game in which the offensive statistics mirrored one another. “We shot ourselves in the foot a couple of times and it really hurt us in the end,” one Duke player said following last year’s loss.

Duke is 17-8 ATS as an underdog since 2013, including 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. Finally, my math model actually favors Duke by 0.9 points so we are getting solid line value with the home underdog. Grab the generous number with the Blue Devils and invest with confidence.

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 7:37 am
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Executive Sports

Nebraska at Oregon
Play: Oregon -13

Play On Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) - excellent offensive team from last season that scored 35 or more points/game,in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. (24-4, 86% ATS over the last 10 seasons).

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (27-1 over the last 10 seasons.)

The situation's ATS record this season is: (1-0).

Over the last 3 seasons: (8-1 ATS).

Over the last 5 seasons: (16-2 ATS).

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 7:38 am
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The Prez

Stanford +6.5

The Pac-12 conference openers for both Stanford and Southern California will offer evidence of whether USC is the best in the west or not. The two California programs are set to take Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night with kickoff slated for 8:30 p.m. ET.

This league series hasn't been kind to USC. The Trojans have lost seven of the last nine meetings with the Cardinals winning three straight with all three wins coming by double digits.

With Stanford having an extra week to prepare after their Week Zero 62-7 rout of Rice in Australia and owning an 11-3 mark against the spread in their last 14 against Southern Cal the advantage lies with the northern California squad.

Stanford comes into the Week #2 event with a healthy field general, Keller Chryst, and running back Byrce Love, and are fully equipped to keep pace with USC quarterback Sam Darnold and company.

USC's preseason rankings and projections to win the Pac-12 are in jeopardy after their Week #1 struggles against Western Michigan. While the Trojans sport the most experienced roster filled with fourth and fifth year seniors the group is a mere 37-17 straight up in their USC tenures.

Expect to witness the Stanford running game attack the middle of a thin USC defensive line. Western Michigan recorded 263 yards on the ground against the Trojans and the Cardinals are more than capable of duplicating that production keeping Heisman Trophy hopeful Darnold and his offense off the field.

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 7:39 am
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Harry Bondi

TULANE (+11) over Navy

In last year’s meeting between these two teams, e the Green Wave defense did a great job of defending Navy last year, holding quarterback Will Worth and company to 346 total yards in a 21-14 loss. Navy trailed late in the game and needed a 4th quarter TD to earn the hard fought win as a 7-point favorite. One year later, the Tulane defense is much improved and the team has adapted very nicely to second-year head coach Willie Fritz’s zone option offense. Add it all up and we see no reason why the Midshipmen should be laying double digits here. Take the generous points!

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 7:39 am
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Doc's Sports

Milwaukee at Chicago
Play: Under

No one would have thought that the Cubs and Brewers would be duking it out for the NL Central title in September. But here we are with the Brew Crew still within striking distance of the Cubs going into the weekend. This series is going to have a lot of intensity and should feel like a playoff-type atmosphere. That means it will be managed like a playoff game, and we expect that runs will be harder to come by. Chase Anderson and Mike Montgomery are slated to get the ball on Saturday in this matchup, and both of them are throwing the ball really well at the moment.

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 8:14 am
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Larry Ness

Houston at Arizona
Pick: Arizona

The Houston Cougars had their season-opener against the UT-San Antonio Road Runners canceled due to Hurricane Harvey. So, instead of a warm-up, Houston will play it's first game of the 2017 at Arizona Stadium in Tuscon against the Arizona Wildcats this Saturday night. While Houston's first game was canceled, Arizona opened with a dominating 62-24 rout of the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks. The two schools have just two previous meetings all-time, the last time being in 1986, when Arizona won 37-3 (Houston won the 1969 meeting).

Tom Herman took over as Houston's head coach in 2015 and led the Cougars to a 13-1 record, a season which included a 38–24 victory over 9th-ranked Florida State Seminoles in the Peach Bowl. The Cougars had not beaten an AP top-10 team in a bowl game since 1979. In Herman's second season (2016), Houston beat Oklahoma and Louisville (each of which was ranked #3 in the AP Poll at the time) but Houston slipped to a 9–3 for the regular-season record. Herman's success with Houston culminated in his appointment as the head coach of the Texas Longhorns immediately following Houston's final regular-season contest of 2016. Major Applewhite was promoted to head coach and led the Cougars in the school's 34-10 bowl loss to SD St. Dual threat QB Greg Ward Jr. graduated, but 1st-year head coach Major Applewhite still has talent on both sides of the Ball, as eight offensive starters are back and seven on the defensive side. Former Texas A&M standout Kyle Allen, who sat out last year due to the NCAA transfer rules, will start at QB. He'll have WRs like Linell Bonner (98 catches for 1,118 yards & three TDs) and Steven Dunbar (53 catches for 692 yards & five TDs). The running game needs to get better, as it averaged just under 150 YPG last season. The defense was very good last year, allowing a modest 23.5 PPG and with DT Ed Oliver back on the defensive line, the Cougars look poised to have another solid defensive year.

Arizona ran for 506 yards in its season-opener, with seven players gaining at least 40 yards and combining for seven TDs. QB Dawkins is a better runner (almost 1,000 yards in 2016) and two key RBs return in Zack Green and Nick Wilson. However, in order to improve on last year's 3-9 record, the Wildcats will need to play better defense, as they allowed 38.3 PPG in 2016. We didn't see any improvement against Northern Arizona, even though the Wildcats allowed just 24 points to the Lumberjacks, Northern Arizona had 562 total yards (377 passing & 185 rushing). There was some good news though, as the Wildcats forced three turnovers, including two interceptions by Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles. This after having a minus-7 turnover margin last year.

This becomes Houston's season-opener and it's hard not too take notice of the fact that Arizona has won 19 straight non-conference home games! OR, that the Wildcats are 12-0 at home against non-Pac-12 opponents under coach Rich Rodriguez. With this pointspread,

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 8:16 am
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Big Al

Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Pick: Minnesota -118

The Minnesota Twins are attempting to make the post-season for the first time since 2010 and if the season ended right now, they'd be in -- just barely. The battle for the two AL Wild Card spots is going to be a crazy, mad dash in the last three weeks of the season and the Twins are hoping they can hang on. You could say there are two aces on this 2017 Minnesota club -- an older veteran one (RH Ervin Santana), and a younger one (RH Jose Berrios) who is more than 10 years Santana's junior. It's Berrios' turn tonight as the 23-year-old goes for his 22nd start of the season. After a bit of a regression in July (2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in five starts), Berrios bounced back nicely in August, going 3-2 with a 3.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six starts. RHP Jakob Junis will go for the Royals, and Junis has been red hot lately, but three of his last five starts have come against the likes of the Tigers, Rays, and Athletics and the Royals lost the other two to the Indians and Rockies. The Royals are 2-7 in their last nine vs. teams with a winning record.

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 8:19 am
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Frank Jordan

Cincinnati vs. Michigan
Play: Michigan -34

Michigan took on Florida last week in Texas to open the series and the game was tight early due to some turnovers, but Michigan recovered from the two pick sixes and outscored Florida 20-0 in the second half to win 33-17. Michigan defense only allowed three points and had Florida scrambling to make plays on offense to stay in the game. Michigan had a balanced attack with 218 passing yards and 215 rushing yards. The scoring was spread out one passing TD, one rushing TD and a defensive TD as well recovering a fumble in the endzone for a TD. Cincinnati is also coming off a victory in their opening game winning 26-14 over Austin Peay at home, but now they hit they road against a top 10 team in number eight Michigan. Cincinnati didn't have a ton of yardage, but their quarterback Moore did throw for three touchdowns. Cincinnati will be shocked at how strong, fast the Michigan defense is and it will keep Moore scrambling all day which will turn into turnovers that Michigan will capitalize on leading to their 35 point victory in front of the home faithful.

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 8:20 am
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Scott Rickenbach

Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
Play: Oklahoma +7½

Revenge game from last year. I fully realize it will be tough for OU to beat OSU on the road but the Sooners are a quality team and getting a lot of points here in a big revenge spot. Oklahoma was embarrassed at home last season by Ohio State and some payback is on order here. They may not get the outright upset but a loss comes by just a single possession margin in my opinion. The Buckeyes allowed 420 passing yards to Indiana last week and certainly got off to a slow start in that game. The Sooners certainly played a weaker foe than Ohio State did last week but the complete domination builds up confidence for this OU team and QB Mayfield and Company are going to test this Bucks defense just like the Hoosiers did last week. The Sooners are on a 7-2 ATS run in road games. The Buckeyes are on a 5-9 ATS run in home games. Grab the generous points!

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 8:22 am
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Chris Jordan

My early free winner for Saturday is on Northwestern, as I see the Wildcats handling their business at Duke. The key here, in my eyes, is Northwestern getting off to a fast start. I believe the 'Cats learned their lesson last week, when they fell behind Nevada, 17-7 at halftime, before rallying for a win.

Duke opened with a 60-7 win over North Carolina Central, so the test wasn't as hard, and that could work against it. Quarterback Daniel Jones has the nation's longest active streak without an interception with 198 consecutive passes. He threw a pick in last year's 24-13 loss at Northwestern, and an experienced defense could be the difference in this one.

The Wildcats return eight starters on defense, including a stacked backfield, including safety Godwin Igewbuike. The redshirt senior led the Wildcats with 108 tackles and 78 solo stops, while ranking ninth in the country with 6.0 solo tackles per game. Igewbuike is the culprit who picked Jones last year, so don't be surprised if he scores another today.

Take the road team in this one, and be sure to return at kickoff of this free play, as I'll have another complimentary winner from the late card.

2* NORTHWESTERN

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 8:25 am
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Tommy Brunson

Tough loss for West Virginia on Sunday at FedEx Field in Washington D.C., as they had chances in their game against Virginia Tech, but eventually fell 31-24 to the Hokies.

Yes, the Mountaineers are playing with one less day to prepare, but they have been preparing for an East Carolina squad that is going the wrong way - at least that is what I can tell from their 34-14 home loss to FCS Champ from a season ago, James Madison!

The Pirates went a money-burning 0-4-1 against the spread last season as the away dog, and now take on the Mounties who are looking to bust free after being "cooped up" with only 24-points last week against the tough Hokies defense, this could very well their breakout spot against the porous ECU defense that gave up a boatload of yards - 614 of them to be exact - last week to a FCS team.

The Mountaineers put up almost 600 yards of offense last week in their loss to V-Tech, so expect them to be doing "business" early and often today in their home opener. Dana Holgorson's team does not have a heavy hitter on-deck as they face Delaware State. Mounties to take out last week's frustrations against the Pirates in a big blowout win.

2* WEST VIRGINIA

 
Posted : September 9, 2017 8:25 am
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