Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Middle Tennessee State and Syracuse to tie one on in what should be a wildly-entertaining, high-scoring game from the Carrier Dome.
The Blue Raiders did get stopped last weekend in their season opener but a pretty good Vanderbilt defense, as Middle Tennessee State was held to just 6-points, but they should find the going a little easier this time around against the permissive Orange defense that ranked near the bottom of the pack last season in total defense.
Blue Raiders QB - Brent Stockstill was bottled up last week, but you cannot ignore his 31 touchdown passes from a season ago. Expect him to be able to do business against the rebuilding Orange secondary that gave up more than its fair share of points a season ago.
Syracuse was able to post 50-points last week against Central Connecticut State, Eric Dungey throwing for over 300 yards passing and 3 TD's. Dungey and Stockstill should make this game very entertaining, and the points should be adding up quite fast in this pinball type contest.
Play Middle Tennessee State-Syracuse your Over of the week.
2* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-SYRACUSE OVER
Jack Brayman
My free play for Saturday is on Fresno State plus the big number at Alabama.
Nick Saban is 3-11 ATS when laying more than 35 points, and he is facing an experienced and respectable coach in Jeff Tedford. The Bulldogs have 17 starters back, and look to rebound from a 1-11 season in 2016. Fresno State has 10 back on offense, and it rolls into Tuscaloosa sporting a 7-3 ATS run under Tedford.
This game reminds me of when Alabama laid -39 points at home to Colorado State in 2013, and won just 31-6. Saban isn't looking to wear his players out after a physical game against Florida State last week, when they did get a couple of guys dinged up. He'll want to get his starters in, run up the score to maybe 35-3 or 42-7, then rest some starters and coast in the second half.
Fresno State will score garbage time points while the Tide will chill in the third and fourth quarters. And let's not forget, this is not an explosive offense, as much as it is a physical, smashmouth unit.
Take the Bulldogs
3* FRESNO STATE
Joey Juice
The UCLA Bruins are home against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Can we be honest here for a second, these two teams don't belong on the same field with each other. This will be the first time these two teams have ever played and it's going to be a bloodbath.
The Bruins are fresh off the comeback of a lifetime last week in their 45 to 44 home victory over Texas A&M under the Sunday Night Lights. 28 unanswered points in the fourth quarter as the Bruins rallied to come back from a 44 - 10 hole to win it. The Bruins scored 45 points against the PowerHouse like Texas A&M and now they're facing a much easier opponent this week, they could score 70.
A look inside the numbers show that the UCLA Bruins are 12 and 4 against the Las Vegas number in their last 16 games against the midwestern conference.
Lay the number with UCLA
3* UCLA
Dr Bob
Cincinnati @ Michigan
MICHIGAN (-34) 40 Cincinnati 6
I had Michigan’s defense rated as the 6th best in the nation heading into this season despite being without 10 of last year’s 11 defensive starters. I may have underestimated the Wolverines based on their dominating performance against Florida (just 206 yards allowed at 3.7 yards per play). Cincinnati, meanwhile, gained just 248 total yards at 4.4 yppl as a 42 ½ point favorite against Austin Peay. Michigan’s starters will probably pitch a shutout and maybe the Bearcats get a big play or score on the reserves. The Wolverines were 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 30 points or more last season, winning those games by an average score of 58.4 to 5.6. My ratings favor Michigan by 34 ½ points, so the line is fair.
Louisville @ North Carolina
Louisville (-9½) 38 NORTH CAROLINA 24
North Carolina’s offense appears to be in sharp decline this season after being blessed with good quarterbacks in recent years (Marquise Williams followed by Mitch Trubisky), as LSU transfer Brandon Harris and redshirt freshman Chazz Surratt combined for just 4.6 yards per pass play in their upset loss to Cal. Surratt was the better of the two quarterbacks (5.5 yppp) and he’ll probably get most of the snaps this week, but it’s pretty clear the pass game is suspect and the rushing attack (5.3 yards per rushing play) was nothing special as the Heels break in some new running backs after losing Hood and Logan.
North Carolina’s defense also got a wakeup call from the Bears, who amassed 478 yards at 6.5 yards per play but there was some big-play variance in those numbers and I still rate the Tarheels’ defense at 0.4 yards per play better than average. However, that’s not good enough to contain a very good Louisville attack led by Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, who reportedly is a better passer this season and showed that improvement last week in a deceiving 35-28 win at Purdue. Jackson completed 30 of 46 passes for 379 yards without being sacked (he was sacked a lot last year, so he’s certainly getting the ball out quicker) and he added 111 yards on the ground. That 7-point win is deceiving because Louisville outgained Purdue by 187 yards but had 3 scoring opportunities derailed by fumbles.
The Cardinals also have a good defense and my ratings favor them by 14 points in this game. North Carolina’s upset loss is a bad omen as teams that won 7 or more games the previous season and lost their opener as a favorite of 3 points or more are just 46-75 ATS in game 2, including 15-29 ATS if facing a team that is coming off a spread loss. I like the Cardinals.
TCU @ Arkansas
TCU (-3) 31 ARKANSAS 27
I look for TCU to bounce-back after going just 6-7 in 2016. The last time that the Horned Frogs had a losing season was their 4-8 campaign in 2013. They went 12-1 in 2014. In 2004 Gary Patterson’s team was just 5-6 then opened the next season with an upset win as a 20-plus point underdog at Oklahoma on their way to a 11-1 record. Patterson’s only other non-winning season was in 2001 (6-6) and his team when 10-2 in 2002. You get the picture. TCU has bounced back from disappointing seasons before and my algorithm rates the Horned Frogs much improved with 17 starters back.
Of course, I’m not the only one that sees that, as there really isn’t much line value here given that my ratings favor TCU by 4 points. I’ll pass.
Auburn @ Clemson
CLEMSON (-5) 32 Auburn 27
Clemson’s new quarterback Kelly Bryant certainly passed the eye test last week with his accuracy (16 of 22 for 236 yards) and the Tigers looks like a better running team than they were last season now that the vastly overrated Wayne Gallman (only 4.9 ypr) has moved on. Overall, I think the defending champs will be just as good offensively as they were the last two years with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and the Tigers’ defense looks even better with 7 returning starters, including 5 of the front 7. After all, Clemson’s defense was 1.2 yards per play better than average in each of the last two seasons with much less experienced units (just 3 returning starters in 2015 and 4 in 2016). Clemson is a better overall team than they were last season when they won the National Championship but Auburn is a very formidable obstacle.
Auburn should have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation and quarterback Jarett Stidham should be an upgrade at quarterback – although he didn’t live up to the hype with his modest 14 for 24 for 185 yards last week. The Auburn defense, meanwhile, looks imposing this season even without All-American defensive linemen Carl Lawson and Montavius Adams. There is still a lot of talent on all 3 levels of the defense and the Tigers held Georgia Southern to just 78 total yards in their 41-7 romp last week.
This game will tell us a lot more about these teams and the winner has a leg up in the battle for one of the 4 playoff spots. My ratings favor Clemson by 5 ½ points with a total of 59 points. This battle of the Tigers is not a good game to bet but it’s likely going to be an interesting game to watch.
Georgia @ Notre Dame
NOTRE DAME (-5½) 32 Georgia 25
Notre Dame entered this season as my 15th rated team and the Irish surpassed my expectations with their 49-16 win over Temple. New quarterback Brandon Wimbush didn’t impress me with his throwing ability (a modest 57% completions and only 5.5 yards per pass play) but he ran for 113 yards on 10 runs while backs Josh Adams and Dexter Williams combined for 285 yards on just 25 runs. The Irish defense also played well in yielding just 4.6 yards per play and I have that unit rated at 0.7 yppl better than average.
Georgia also looked good in a 31-10 win over a good Appalachian State team and the Bulldogs may have been blessed by the injury to quarterback Jacob Eason, who was a below average quarterback last season and completed just 1 of 3 passes for 4 yards before his injury. Freshman Jake Fromm nearly beat out Eason for the job and he played really well in his debut against a good defensive team. Fromm calmly completed 10 of 15 passes for 143 yards and didn’t take a sack while backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel combined for 183 yards on 31 runs. The Bulldogs’ defense also played well in limiting Appalachian State to just 4.6 yards per play and I rate the Georgia defense at 0.7 yppl better than average.
These two teams appear to be equal defensively but Notre Dame appears to have a better offense unless Fromm turns out to be significantly better than Eason, which is possible. My updated ratings favor the Irish by 7 points.
Oklahoma @ Ohio St.
OHIO STATE (-7½) 35 Oklahoma 29
Both of these teams were impressive last week and the winner of this game has an inside track to the 4-team playoffs. Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield completed 19 of his 20 passes for 329 yards, which is incredibly impressive regardless of the defense (in this case, UTEP), and Ohio State’s J.T. Barnett appears to have found some big play threats at the receiver position that has been missing the last couple of years. Ohio State’s rushing attack also looks to be in good shape with the emergence of freshman J.K. Dobbins, who ran for 181 yards at 6.2 ypr in his debut against a really good Indiana defensive front. Last year’s starter, Mike Weber, returns after serving a 1-game suspension and he averaged 6.0 ypr last season. With two great backs and Barnett also a running threat the Sooners’ defense will have their hands full.
Ohio State’s potential weakness is in the secondary, although the 5.4 yards per pass play that they allowed to Richard Lagow last week is very good considering the quality of Indiana’s receivers. That secondary will surely be tested by Mayfield, who I rated as the nation’s most efficient passer heading into the season even without big play WR DeDe Westbrook.
This is a really great matchup that is very even from the line of scrimmage, as I rate Oklahoma’s offense as 0.9 yards per play better than Ohio State’s attack while the Buckeyes’ defense rates at 0.9 yppl better than the Sooners’ stop unit. I give Ohio State the edge in special teams and projected turnovers and overall my numbers favor Ohio State by 6.2 points. Oklahoma does apply to a 31-2 ATS subset of a 88-36-2 ATS non-conference revenge situation (Ohio State won 45-24 in Oklahoma last season) but Buckeyes’ coach Urban Meyer is 49-16-1 ATS in his coaching career against non-conference opponents, including 46-12 ATS when not favored by 35 points or more. I think it’s best to pass on this game.
Stanford @ USC
USC (-5½) 31 Stanford 24
Stanford certainly seemed to be more impressive in their opening game, a 61-7 win over Rice, than USC was in beating Western Michigan 49-31 last Saturday. However, Rice is a horrible team and USC actually didn’t play that poorly, as the Trojans outgained Western Michigan 527 yards at 7.9 yards per play to 357 yards at 5.0 yppl. Those numbers are only 0.1 yppl worse than was expected from USC and Sam Darnold had perhaps his worst game as a starter. Darnold was not the starter when Stanford beat USC 27-10 last year but that that result prompted the promotion of Darnold into the starting lineup and he’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation since then. The USC aerial attack is supported by a very good rushing attack that averaged 8.0 yards per rushing play last week against a pretty good Western Michigan run defense and overall I give the advantage to the Trojans’ offense (1.6 yppl better than average) over the Stanford defense (1.2 yppl better than average).
The big question I had about Stanford coming into the season was quarterback Keller Chryst, who was terrible last season in averaging just 5.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Chryst played well against Rice (14 of 24 and 9.8 yppp) but Rice has had the worst pass defense in the nation the past two seasons so I’m still not convinced that Chryst is the man for the job (Ryan Burns was just 0.1 yppp worse than average last year before Chryst took over as the starter). I have no questions about the Stanford rushing attack with Bryce Love taking over for Christian McCaffrey. Love averaged 7.1 ypr on his 111 carries last season (6.3 ypr for McCaffrey) and he ran for 180 yards on just 13 carries in the opener against Rice. I am just not sold in Chryst and USC’s defensive rating (1.0 yppl better than average) is better than my offensive rating on Stanford (+0.6 yppl).
My ratings favor USC by 7 ½ points so I’ll lean slightly with the Trojans to get their revenge.
Bruce Marshall
Marshall at NC State
Play: NC State -23
Off of a bitter loss at Charlotte vs. South Carolina in its opener, NC State might be able to take out some frustrations on visiting Marshall this Saturday at Raleigh. The Wolfpack has certainly been a good bully lately under HC Dave Doeren, standing 7-2 vs. the line as a double-digit favorite since 2015; laying 20 or more, Doeren is even better, having covered five straight. NCS is also 12-2 vs. the spread its last 14 outside of the ACC. Note that the Herd has lost seven in a row SU as a visitor, the last six of those by double-digit margins, and was just 4-8 vs. the line in 2016.
Bob Balfe
Northwestern / Duke Over 54
The last couple of games these two teams have played have been pretty low scoring, but now the defenses lack the past talent and both teams have very little depth. Duke has a lot of true freshman on this defense and on the defensive line don’t have the edge rushers to put pressure on the QB. Northwestern is already down three defensive corners to start this season and they have the same problem with nobody able to get to the QB on defense. When we flip over to offense Duke has so much talent at the receiving position. The Blue Devils will just spread the field and find and open man. Daniel Jones is a good QB and he can also take off and run for first downs. Duke should score all day. Northwestern has two great running backs that should run all over this Duke Defense. The Wildcats also have talented receivers. This team should score on Duke all day. We are going to see a lot of points.
Nelly
Mississippi State - over Louisiana Tech
This battle of Bulldogs is the first meeting since 2015, a game MSU won 45-20 in Starkville. Mississippi State had an outrageously dominant showing last week, holding Charleston Southern to just 33 net yards in the shutout win. Louisiana Tech was caught in a tight game with FCS Northwestern State last week as they were tied late into the third quarter before scoring the final 28 points of the game. With three straight nine-win seasons Skip Holtz has Louisiana Tech consistently battling as one of the better small conference teams but this year's squad has few starters back and the passing game was inefficient last week behind sophomore J'Mar Smith. Perpetually underrated Mississippi State is playing in a tough venue here with Louisiana Tech 14-2 S/U in Ruston the last three years but few of those wins were of any quality. Nick Fitzgerald has a lot of starting experience and is a dual threat after leading the team is rushing last season. Louisiana Tech had three turnovers on offense last week but was also handed three turnovers back and still didn't pull away until late in the game. Allowing nearly 400 yards and 24 points vs. FCS competition doesn't bode well for taking on this matchup and while the recent success of the program makes Louisiana Tech and intriguing home underdog the roster doesn't resemble the group that played competitively with Arkansas and Texas Tech last season and despite Ruston's reputation the Bulldogs are just 1-3 ATS the past four instances as a home underdog.
SPORTS WAGERS
NOTRE DAME -4½ over Georgia
As a 13-point choice against Appalachian State last week, the Bulldogs won (and covered) 31-10. When talking about misleading scores in the first week of the season, look no further than this one. Georgia had 148 yards through the air while App State had 147 yards. The Bulldogs had 221 yards on the ground to the Mountaineers 136 but average yards per rush was much closer. The big discrepancy was in penalties yards, as App State was nailed for 120 yards in penalties while Georgia was nailed for a mere 46 yards. Trust us when we tell you that it was not an even playing field, as Georgia got every call, phantom or not. The Bulldogs had just 18 first downs the entire game, their backup QB, who will start today, looked dreadful and they’ll now go into South Bend as the 15th ranked team in the country taking back some points.
Notre Dame closed as a 19-point favorite last week against Temple and scored early and often to put the Owls far in the distance in a 49-16 victory. The Irish racked up 606 yards and seemed to do it with such ease. The market, however, liked what they saw with Georgia’s running game and defense and has reacted accordingly.
Our outlook on Kirby Smart's Georgia program is and has been one of general optimism, but the Dawgs look to be a year or two of quarterback development, offensive line recruiting and general depth-building away from becoming a legitimate top 10 team. For all the setbacks Notre Dame has had in Brian Kelly's eight years in South Bend, and despite two new coordinators in 2017, this is a more mature organization that is closer to the finished product envisioned when the head coach took over than Georgia is in Year 2 under Smart. The 41-year old's Year 1 nonconference resume includes hard-fought wins over North Carolina and TCU along with a narrow loss to Georgia Tech, none of which were in the opponent's stadium and none of which involved facing the kind of talent that Notre Dame has collected. Even if you think Georgia's roster is ahead of schedule, or don't believe that Notre Dame will be that resurgent this year, you should be asking whether you're sure that the 30,000-foot view agrees that this Georgia program is quite ready to take to the road and win an intersectional game of this magnitude. From our standpoint, they are not.
OHIO ST -7½ over Oklahoma
We usually stay away from such high-profile games because the lines are so tight when compared to so many lesser games on the college football menu but this one is screaming out at us big time. It’s not often that the #4 ranked team in the country is being offered more than a converted TD but that’s the case here. The points look appealing indeed. Next, we have last week’s results working in Oklahoma’s favor. The Sooners laid wood on UTEP by beating them 56-7 in what was essentially a tune-up game for this one while Ohio State, as a 20-point favorite, struggled against Indiana for three quarters before finally putting them away. Flashing across the bottom of your TV screens last week was “Upset Alert” as the Buckeyes were trailing at halftime to the Hoosiers and the game remained very close until late in the third quarter. That also makes OSU a tough sell here. Finally, we have the “hook” on a key number (7) to make the dog look even more enticing and when you combine everything we just discussed above, boy oh boy do the points look good. We say, “Not so fast”.
You see, that hook is designed to attract action on the dog. The odds makers could’ve easily made the Buckeyes -7 and attract equal action but they didn’t. Even at +7, the Sooners would take plenty of money. That hook tips many of those on the fence to the Sooners side and we’re urging you to tip the other way. Last year it was evident that Ohio State had more overall talent on the field than Oklahoma, and this year the Buckeyes also enjoy home field and a coaching mismatch between future Hall of Famer Urban Meyer and newbie Lincoln Riley. Indiana couldn't run the ball on Ohio State and couldn't really protect, though it didn't matter for three quarters because Hoosiers quarterback Richard Lagow played pitch-and-catch with his excellent receivers so well. The Sooners are replacing its top two wideouts from last year plus 50 catches from departed running backs. The Oklahoma pass-catchers might have as much raw upside but right now this group is not as good as Indiana's. The bet here is that Ohio State will score at will and while the Sooners may trade punches for a while, it’ll be OSU that pulls away at the end. We like that OSU was battle tested in Week 1 while the Sooners were not. The odds makers like that too.
Fresno State +44 over ALABAMA
Situationally speaking, this scenario sets up perfectly to fade the Crimson Tide. First and foremost, the number presented is one that could be an errand to cover no matter how unbalanced the match-up may be. Secondly, the team laying the points is considered to be the gold standard of college football, meaning the Tide are overpriced every time they take the field. That doesn’t mean they should be faded every week because they will of course cover from time-to-time but picking the right spots can bring some profits and we trust this is one of those spots. Alabama comes in off a big win and even teams’ of the Tide’s flawless execution can be prone to letting down after a big preparation week in the first contest of the season. The nation’s top-ranked team in the polls cruised past what was forecasted to be a far more difficult test against #3 Florida State. Many analysts predicted that not only would Florida State cover the touchdown-plus spread but they would take a Seminole leap themselves and knock off the Tide in what was billed as a primetime spectacle. In what was built up to be a titanic clash, the game was all ‘Bama once the dust settled. Florida State would strike first and after that the Tide would close the door. The end result was Alabama’s defense did what it does best and that would be to dominate. The ‘Noles would not find the end zone again for the duration of the game and Alabama would continue onto score 24 unanswered points. The final analysis classes the contest outcome as a statement victory for the Tide against a widely-prognosticated College Football Playoff contender. You will now pay handsomely for that victory this week.
Queue Fresno State, a team that won just one game in 2016 and that was not even against a FBS opponent. The Bulldogs are renowned for having a blue-collar approach to the game. They will play anyone, anywhere. Though they were likely scheduled as a tune-up game for the Tide, the Boys from the Valley do not regard themselves as a cupcake by any stretch. A 66-0 blowout win against Incarnate Word to open up their 2017 campaign reinforces the notion that Fresno State is looking to change the public perception of their program. At one time, Fresno State was in the mix for the Mountain West title and a frequenter of nine-win seasons. This is the same program that produced the likes of current Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, Packers wide receiver Davante Adams, and former Eagles running back Ryan Mathews, just to name a few but that’s just fodder. Fresno State is not our target, as they just happen to be running into our target here. For Alabama, Week 2 is more of a glorified practice. We know for sure we’re getting inflated points and we’re going to scoop them up especially when the total (53) is pretty damn close to the point-spread. In the Nick Saban era, the Tide are 0-6 ATS (with one game called early due to weather) in the game after the previous seven neutral-site openers. All but one of those games (a road date at Texas A&M in 2013) involved spreads of at least four touchdowns versus Group of 5 conference teams, just like this week's tilt with Fresno State.
For Alabama, Week 2 is more of a glorified practice. We know for sure we’re getting inflated points and we’re going to scoop them up especially when the total (53) is pretty damn close to the point-spread. In the Nick Saban era, the Tide are 0-6 ATS (with one game called early due to weather) in the game after the previous seven neutral-site openers. All but one of those games (a road date at Texas A&M in 2013) involved spreads of at least four touchdowns versus Group of 5 conference teams, just like this week's tilt with Fresno State.
IOWA STATE +3 over Iowa
Rivalry games are a stage for the unpredictable. Outside of last year’s Iowa dominance in Iowa City, the Battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has defied expectations on numerous occasions. Previous to 2016, the away team had won in four consecutive meetings. Over the span of five contests dating from 2011 to 2015, Iowa State won thrice. In four of these five meetings, the margin of victory was six points or less. In 2011, overtime was required to declare a winner. But that’s all ancient history. In 2016, the Hawkeyes laid waste to the Cyclones in Kinnick Stadium when they pounded their intrastate adversaries by a score of 42-3. Heading into the contest, the Hawks were favored by over two touchdowns against a far lowlier edition of Cyclones football. In 2017, the prognostications for the Cyclones and Hawkeyes are headed in opposite directions. Some analysts have argued that Iowa has the floor of being a middling 6-6 team while Iowa State may gain bowl eligibility for the first time since 2012. Very likely this match-up will play a monumental role in determining the finality of both team’s campaigns.
The Hawkeyes exceeded expectations after they thrashed Wyoming in their Week One opener. Iowa’s notoriously stout defense held the Cowboys to just a field goal. Heading into the affair, the talk of the town was Wyoming’s signal caller Josh Allen, who has been hyped up as a potential top draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Despite the fanfare surrounding Allen, Iowa held him to 174 yards passing and did not allow him to find the end zone. In addition, the Hawkeyes picked off Allen twice. As a result, the Black and Yellow cruised to a 24-3 win. In spite of Iowa’s success against Wyoming and their exceptional performance against Iowa State in 2016, the market has priced this one deceptively economical to the eyes of many Iowa backers. When the price seems too good to be true, it almost certainly is. With all the rhetoric surrounding this contest in the pre-season, Iowa State will enter this meeting with heightened optimism. Unexpected things happen in this series, and, essentially, that Vegas has been unable to get a hold of this rivalry. Just maybe, Vegas has it figured out this year. Depending on where you look, the line opened with Iowa being a one-point choice and now they’re up to -3. The Hawkeyes have now been the betting line favorite 17 straight seasons over the Cyclones and that’s more than enough fodder to get this market to bite. We, however, are buying into the prospect of an I-State victory for the first time since 2011 and the initial offering in this market suggests that the books are as well. The Hawkeyes are on upset alert.
USC -6 over Stanford
While Stanford pounded Rice 62-7 in the opener, there's nothing that happened in that game that is worth talking about. It was an easy cover for the Cardinal as near 30-point road chalk. Last Saturday on ESPN Gameday, the panel argued about which approach was better, scheduling cupcakes early in the year or going against stiffer competition. For the Cardinal, the former seems to be the way to go if we are to judge the perception of this team through the media. This week on Colin Cowherd's radio show, he needed convincing that Stanford wasn't going to win this game because USC did not look good in the opener. Cowherd went on to say, “Stanford has owned this series, David Shaw is a veteran who wins these games so convince me that Stanford is not going to win this game.” The market carries a similar notion about this contest, which works to our advantage.
For three-quarters last Saturday, the Trojans, darlings of the pundits before the season started, nearly fell right off the horse before they got out of the gate. If you watched any college football last Saturday, the USC/Western Michigan game was featured heavily in the in-game updates, halftime reports and postgame highlight shows. It was an upset alert for most of the game and the talking heads made sure to pound that home. Nobody this week is talking about how the Trojans took over in the fourth quarter and still won by 18-points but that result as a -28-point home favorite has many pundits calling that game a “close call”.
The Cardinal played a very easy game in a sleep walk win while the Trojans were tested by the Mustangs and have already had to face some adversity this season. Stanford takes a big step up in competition here. USC was a popular pick to make the playoffs coming into the season and now they are being written off after just one game. While both teams were large favorites last week, Western Michigan is a program on the rise coming off a great season and that 28-point line was a slap in the face to the Mustangs. We aren't going to fault the Trojans for failing to cover a bad number. Instead, we will take advantage this week. Stanford has won three straight in this series including a 27-10 win at home last season and a 41-22 at the L.A. Coliseum in 2015. With those recent results and the perceived USC struggles, we can see that taking back points with the Cardinal could be appealing but had USC dominated like they were supposed to, this line would have been a touchdown or more. It’s not often that a team with so much hype surrounding them before the season is priced short in Week 2 but that’s precisely the situation here and we’ll try to capitalize on it. Deflated points also equal value.
Boise State +10 over WASHINGTON ST
This game has all the makings of a shootout. Sure, Washington State may feature a prototypical quarterback in Luke Falk, who has thrown for an average of 4,500 yards through the air in the previous two seasons. The effort of Falk has led the Cougars to emerge as a threat in the Pac-12, as they have boasted the best passing attack across America. However, the Cougars also own a defense that has on average given up over 27 points per game and 411 yards of total offense in the previous two seasons. The 31-0 shutout of Montana State last week can be quite misleading, as Montana State is a FCS team that finished 4-7 last year. Basically, Montana State is a one-dimensional (running the ball) joke so give no credit to WSU for that victory. Very simply, Wazoo is like many other Pac-12 teams in that they live and die by their offense. While the Cougars have been able to get away with this strategy against the likes of Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona State, they were hammered last season by any team with a semblance of a defense. For example, when they hosted its hated cross-state foe Washington in the 2016 Apple Cup, the Cougars were held to 17 points while the Huskies went off for 45. In the week previous, Colorado was able to hang 38 points on Washington State while the Buffs held the Cougs to 24 points.
Boise State opened its season against Troy and as a 10½-point choice, they won by 11. What’s notable there is that the total was 59 and the Broncs held Troy to just 13 points. BSU also beat Washington State last season in Boise. The Broncos went up against Falk and company at the Smurf Turf and were able to deliver a 31-28 victory. In that game, the Cougars were spotted nearly two touchdowns and covered easily. Fast forward a year later and now the Cougars opened as a touchdown favorite with heavy steam pushing them to a double-digit choice. We’re going to attribute the line move to recent results. The Cougars started off 0-2 in 2016 and won eight straight to put itself in position to vie for the Pac-12 Championship Game. Boise State is not the Broncos we typically see. Though they won 10 games yet again in 2016, they lost games they were expected to win. Thus, the market assessment of both outfits has driven the price here. A lackadaisical performance by the Boise State offense in a sloppy win over Troy has this market concerned but we’d be more worried about this Wazzu defense. We continue to see too many guys who can’t get lined up correctly, corners who are nowhere to be found and an alarming lack of fundamentals. Boise State always tries to schedule games against strong opposition and they know how to prepare for it without batting an eye. Traveling to Pullman is just another day at the office for the team known as the “Greatest BCS Buster of All-Time”.
Hawaii +24 over UCLA
After the theatrics displayed in prime time last Sunday night against Texas A&M, it is safe to infer that the Bruins will attract a lot of attention this week. Many superlatives were used to describe what took place in Pasadena last Sunday night. Some have called it historic. Some have called it incredulous. Many have proclaimed that the triumphant comeback was something that can define UCLA’s season and perhaps get them back to relevance in the Pac-12. We would be remiss to highlight the fact that the Bruins finished just 4-8 in 2016. Nevertheless, such rhetoric is bound to stir up a whole lot of excitement to book the Powder Blue and Gold, but we insist that backers hold their horses and not overreact. First and foremost, the UCLA comeback against the Aggies was as much the work of Kevin Sumlin and company as it was the Bruins themselves. Let us not forget here that the Bruins closed as nearly a touchdown favorite and were losing 41-10 in a game they were supposed to win in impressive fashion. The fact remains, UCLA did not nose to the front until the last minute of the contest when a beleaguered and dismayed Texas A&M fell for a fake spike even though the clock was stopped. This event encapsulates everything that went wrong on Sunday night for the Aggies in one foul swoop.
Hawaii comes into this affair at 2-0. Overall, the Rainbow Warriors have won their last five dating back to 2016. This is a football team that battled its way to bowl eligibility, overcame a 14-point deficit in its bowl game to defeat Middle Tennessee State, and traveled 5,000 miles to overcome Massachusetts when they trailed into the fourth quarter. In their last three fixtures, the Alohas are 2-0-1 against the spread. The one push came most recently when Hawaii defeated Western Carolina at home as a 23-point favorite, last week. It is worth mentioning that in last week’s game, the Rainbow Warriors actually sat some of their best players to preserve them for their meeting with UCLA. Low and behold, the Bruins enter off a shorter week of rest and are undoubtedly exhausted both physically and emotionally from the spectacle against A&M. By contrast, the Warriors are well-rested and are likely more prepared for this contest. For Hawaii, this is a massive opportunity that they’ll treat like it’s for a championship while the Bruins will treat is as a glorified practice and show up in body only. While the Rainbow Warriors may not pull off the upset here, they have enough firepower on their offense to come in under the number against what has proven to be a very amiable Bruins defense. Don’t be shocked by any means if Hawaii makes this one interesting and UCLA has to struggle to get by them. Hawaii’s offense is good enough to come in through the back door too so if you bet the Bruins here, they had better up by 30 or more, which is a tall task after last week’s monumental victory.
MISSOURI -3 over South Carolina
The Gamecocks went on the road last week and beat N.C. State 35-28 as a 7½-point pooch. After making it to a bowl game in his first season, South Carolina coach Will Muschamp's program is getting some buzz in the SEC East. This morning, Tim Tebow, who is now an analyst on ESPN, said he thought the 'Cocks were ready to contend in the SEC. Maybe Timmy had one too many cups of coffee this morning because SC is more likely to be hovering around the Bowl game cut line than making a run in one of the nation's toughest conferences. Even a top-3 finish in the SEC East might be a little generous. Even though they got the win, the Gamecocks were badly outgained by N.C. State to the tune of 504-245, giving up 415 yards through the air in the process. The difference in the game was two lost fumbles by the Wolfpack, but turnovers won or lost is not a skill and the results of those plays have inflated the value of South Carolina’s stock coming out of Week 1.
Missouri, on the other hand, decided to take things easy with a home date with Missouri State. The Tigers failed to cover as a -36 point favorite and while they did put up 72-points, it's the 43 allowed that has the Mizzou defense facing some criticism this week. The Tigers had the worst defense in the SEC in 2016 so that has only added fuel to this early season fire. Head coach Barry Odom decided not to make any changes to his defensive starting lineup, which adds even more fuel to this fire. We're not going to put too much stock into last week's performance, as it was basically a walk through before the Tigers real season starts.
The Gamecocks won this SEC East battle last season 31-21, so that combined with recent form and results has driven this line down from -5½ to just -3. With Hurricane Irma looming, the mid-Atlantic area is also preparing for the worst. You can break down the X's and O's all you want but it's impossible to tell where the Gamecocks players and coaches heads are at. The school is already making contingency plans in case the storm hits as planned while they are in Missouri. Muschamp has downplayed Irma's impact on his teams' preparation but we're not willing to do the same. With a 7:00 PM start, South Carolina players and coaches figure to be watching CNN updates all day, at least out of the corner of their eye. One cannot take the human element out of anything and this therefore becomes a major distraction for the Gamecocks, who have family and friends back home and in danger. Playing football at a high level takes 100% focus, which the Gamecocks will not have in this contest and they’re not that good to overcome a major distraction to begin with.
BYU +125 over Utah
BEST LINES: +120 Bet365 +125 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +125
Although the Utes won and covered as a 20½-point home favorite against North Dakota last Thursday night, they had their hands full with the Fighting Hawks. Utah struggled to move the ball early and was actually shut out in the first quarter. It was a very competitive 17-9 game at halftime and although the Utes pulled away late, they still needed an unnecessary touchdown with 2½-minutes to go just to cover the number. North Dakota might be one of the better Big Sky teams but that conference is barely a notch above a Division II team. In Week 1, North Dakota was brought in to be a cupcake for Utah but that nearly backfired, as the Fighting Hawks gave Utah more than they bargained for.
With two games already under their belts, you'd be hard pressed to find a more disappointing start to the season than that of the BYU Cougars. As a -37 point favorite in Week 1 against Portland State, an also ran in the Big Sky, BYU only managed to find the end zone twice in a 20-6 win. The pressure was already on by the time the Cougars' offense took the field last Saturday night against LSU and they were shutout in a high profile prime time game. That kind of performance will leave a lasting impression on this market.
They call this game the “Holy War” and it's for good reason. The coaching staffs for both teams have ties to both schools with some staff member having suited up for the rival side as a player. There are no surprises in a game like this. Last season, BYU was a three point pooch in Salt Lake City and lost the game when they missed a two-point conversion after they decided to go for the win instead of kicking the extra point to force overtime. At this time of the year, it's all about over and under-reactions and it looks like these two programs are headed in different directions, yet odds makers opened this game with the Cougars as a small home favorite. The market pounced on the Utes who are now three point chalk. Usually, we'll be the ones sticking with our general plan. Don't panic when teams look bad, don't crown teams after a big win, and in general, don't overreact to single-game results. We'll caution exactly that when it comes to BYU. They are wrongly being billed as the dog here and after competing for 60 minutes against the ferocious LSU defense last week, this one should appear in slow motion for the Cougars.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +102 over SEATTLE
Andrew Albers comes in with a 3-1 record and 3.43 ERA after four starts while Andrew Heaney comes in with a 1-1 record and 6.98 ERA after the same four starts. That has the Mariners wrongly favored here so allow us to bring you up to date on the plight of Andrew Albers.
Back in early August, the two busiest General Managers in the game got together and swung another deal, sending Andrew Albers to the Mariners. The Atlanta Braves have made a lot of trade deals under John Coppolella’s guidance, but even he can’t keep up with the Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto. In a move that kind of resembles a desperation play from a competitive team that has just about spent their farm system, Seattle acquired AAA journeyman Andrew Albers from the Gwinnett Braves. Prior to his four starts with the M’s, Albers posted a 4.41 ERA in 80 big-league innings (5.98 xERA), with a fastball that barely reaches the upper 80s. He’s a 31-year-old lefty that has been bouncing around for years. His career swing and miss rate is 6%. This year, it’s 5%. His batted ball profile of 37% grounders, 29% line-drives and 35% fly-balls reveals he’s likely to give up a home-run, a rope to the gap or a lined shot down the line as he is of getting an out, be it fly-ball or otherwise. Albers shiny ERA is all fool’s gold while Heaney’s 6.98 ERA will have most backing off.
By contrast, Andrew Heaney was a top prospect at one time but health problems have been holding him back. Last year, year, Heaney’s season ended before it even started as a flexor strain gave way to TJS after 3 months of rehab didn't work. With surgery in early July, it was believed he could lose his 2017 as well but here we are in September and Heaney is ahead of schedule, which shows his determination. The once-promising prospect is now healthy and looking good. Heaney has 24 K’s in 19 frames with an outstanding 14% swing and miss rate. His xERA is 4.15, which is another good sign after just four starts. At the end of the day, we have a top prospect with determination and skills working for us against a career stiff that has been riding buses for 10 years and has no business being favored.
Pass CFL
The Real Animal
Marshall / NC State Over 45.5
Wow, that has to be the lowest total I have seen at Marshall in years, maybe decades. In 2014 Marshall opened the season at Miami of Ohio and won 42-27. In 2013 on this field in the first game, Marshall won 52-14. The two teams did not meet the past two years. With three games remaining last season the Herd scored 42 points here against a solid Middle Tennessee State defense. But in their season finale they got waxed by Western Kentucky yielding 60 points. The Herd allowed 59 or more three times last year and they may be the only team in the country with a defense that allowed more than twice as many points as the previous season. In 2015 Marshall held opponents to 17 per game. Last season 35. Junior QB Chase Litton returns with a 47-17 ratio the past two years combined. The mindset with most people is Miami of Ohio struggles offensively. But last year once QB Gus Ragland got healthy the Redhawks were extremely efficient. They were 6-1 down the stretch and Ragland had a 17-1 ratio of touchdowns to picks. They have nine starters back on offense that went for 35 or more points in three of their final five games (two on the road). Marshall has a tendency to play wide-open games and especially early in the season. In 2016 the Herd's first four games produced 62, 103, 87, and 70 points. I'll go 'OVER' here with Ragland's 17-1 ratio the difference as a 4 1/2* BEST BET on a very low total by Marshall standards.
OC Dooley
Michigan State -7
One can argue that today is an emotional letdown for already well-traveled Western Michigan who last week traveled out to the west coast and as a 28 point underdog gave highly ranked USC all they could handle in a 49-31 contest. While Western Michigan was amazing a year ago (13-1 overall with a Cotton Bowl berth) they no longer have head coach P.J. Fleck who is now with a Big Ten conference squad. Speaking of the Big Ten Michigan State a year ago took a stunning fall from grace but immediately turned the tables last week COVERING as a 17 point home favorite. Here is a "34-10" SYSTEM (77% the past 25 years with a line between 3'-and-10 points) which plays ON home favorites like Michigan State (in the opening month) after concluding the prior campaign with consecutive lossesand facing an opponent who actually won 4 of the final 5 games. That system favors Michigan State who after today will have three consecutive "step up" games (Notre Dame, Iowa and Michigan) and need to gain confidence
Chase Diamond
Buffalo +15
This game features the 0-1 Buffalo and the 1-0 Army. Buffalo covered last week and really gave Minnesota a game last week now they play Army who played a division 2 team last week. Army is laying way to many points to a Buffalo team that has showed it can play some defense. Only 31% of the public has laid Buffalo so far yet this line has dropped 2 points.
Rocketman
Nebraska vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -13
The Nebraska Cornhuskers travel to Oregon to take on the Ducks on Saturday afternoon. Both teams come in with identical 1-0 SU records on the season. Nebraska is allowing 415 yards per game passing and 497 total yards per game. Oregon is averaging 348 yards per game rushing, 355 yards per game passing and 703 total yards per game so far this season. Oregon is allowing only 99 yards per game on the ground this year. Nebraska allowed 36 points in their opener this year. Oregon scored 77 points in their opening game of the season. Nebraska is 1-4-1 ATS last 6 games overall. Nebraska is 1-3-1 ATS last 5 games on turf. Nebraska is 0-3-1 ATS last 4 games against a team with a winning record. Oregon is 3-1-1 ATS last 5 games against the Big 10. Oregon is 22-10 ATS last 32 games after an ATS win. We'll recommend a small play on Oregon today!