Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, August 27th, 2017

Doc's Sports

49ers vs. Vikings
Play: 49ers +4½

We have seen that many of the big underdogs have been covering the spread during the first two weeks of the exhibition season. Expect that trend to continue Sunday with the last game of Week 3. Minnesota has been a cash cow in the preseason under Mike Zimmer but that changed last week in Seattle and I do not see them blowing out the 49ers in this game. San Francisco got blown out last week against Denver and expect them to rebound in a big way tonight in ideal dome conditions. Kyle Shanahan will approach this game like a regular season game for his first unit and that should allow them to take this game down to the wire.

Wunderdog

San Francisco @ Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -4

Minnesota plays hard for no-nonsense coach Mike Zimmer, even in August. They've allowed 30 total points in two games, on a 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS preseason run. The Vikings were hit hard by injuries on the offensive line last year, so they've bulked up with depth on the O-line and the backfield for this season to have better balance. After losing both starting tackles for the year by Week 3 and seeing each of the interior offensive linemen go down at different times during the 2016 season, the Vikings' depth looks much improved. That depth was on display Friday in Seattle as neither starting lineman on the left side, tackle Riley Reiff and guard Alex Boone, suited up, which forced the Vikings to start Rashod Hill and Nick Easton. The makeshift first-team line did not give up a sack and sprung running back Dalvin Cook for 40 yards on just seven carries. A battle is still waging in camp over the center position. Easton and third-round pick Pat Elflein have each started one preseason game and have mixed in at practice, spending some time at guard. QB Sam Bradford was given more time to throw against Seattle last week, which allowed him to push the ball downfield for several explosive plays, including a 39-yard pass to speedy WR Stefon Diggs, while RB Cook averaged 5.7 yards per carry. And there are no concerns with a Minnesota defense that is loaded with talent and depth. They are home against the San Francisco squad pretty much rebuilding from scratch under a new coaching staff. The defense has allowed 50 points in two games and the QB rotation is poor with Brian Hoyer, rookie C.J. Beathard and Matt Barkley. They come off a 33-14 loss to Denver. The Niners' starters struggled in Kansas City in Week 1, then in Week 2 the offense had had three turnovers and didn't put any points on the board in its first four possessions. Making matters worse, Denver played without seven of its normal defensive starters -- and it won't get any easier this week.

DAVE COKIN

BENGALS AT REDSKINS
PLAY: REDSKINS -3.5

Playing the preseason is mostly about gauging what the teams are trying to accomplish and acting accordingly. The main reason I liked the Browns on Saturday was that they’re clearly trying to change the culture and these meaningless games are not so meaningless to them.

I think that’s the case to some extent here. Winning or losing this game won’t make or break the Redskins. But they’ve played pretty ragged football in going 0-2, and I would think head coach Jay Gruden would like to see something a bit more positive here.

Note the 0-2 teams have done pretty well this week. New England blew a 24-0 lead but managed to squeeze out the win at Detroit. The Colts won at Pittsburgh. The Chargers got a win against the Rams. The Raiders fell short, but not by much in a narrow loss at Dallas.

I’ll bank on the Washington side to be a little more intent on walking off their home field with the win today as they host the Bengals. Redskins minus the points.

Scott Rickenbach

Bengals vs. Redskins
Play: Bengals +3½

With this line now moving to a 3.5 it is go time with Cincinnati. There is a lot of line value with having the Bengals here at +3 and the hook! Yes the Redskins are 0-2 so far in the preseason and that gives them some extra motivation. But don't forget the Bengals suffered a home loss by an 18 point margin last week! Cincy is looking to atone for that poor performance versus the Chiefs. Also, the Bengals went 3-1 in the preseason two years ago and though they were only 1-3 last year 2 of the 3 losses came by 3 points or less. This of course means that out of the Bengals last 10 preseason games, the ugly loss last week was just the 3rd time in 10 games that they've lost an NFLX game by more than 3 points. Definite value here with Cincy at +3.5 or more.

Mike Lundin

Rockies vs. Braves
Play: Rockies -117

The Colorado Rockies are just 32-34 on the road this season, but I like them to improve on that record here in the rubber-match of a three game set at Atlanta.

The Braves have one of the worst home records in baseball at 29-35, and today they hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (10-9, 4.95 ERA) who has been lit up wherever he's pitched lately. The 25 year old has been tagged with a total of 20 runs in just 11 2/3 frames through his last three outings, and that includes surrendering eight in 3 1/3 innings at Coors Field on August 16.

Just like today, Foltynewicz pitched opposite Jon Gray (5-3, 4.54 ERA) in that contest. Gray gave up just five hits and struck out six while holding the Braves to a pair of runs in six innings of the 17-2 Rockies victory. Gray is 1-3 with a 5.72 ERA in eight road starts on the season, but he's been pretty sharp in recent outings compiling a solid 3.70 ERA through last four starts away from Coors.

The Rockies are 17-5 in the last 22 head-to-head meetings, and I think this looks like a more than fair price on the visitors who are fighting to hold on to their wild card spot.

Sean Higgs

Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Giants +178

Now we end the week and for Sunday, I really do not like anything. Sometimes, I am loaded up. Sometimes not. I will rarely take a fave of more than -150, so you know I am not going to be laying huge numbers as we enter September and rosters expand.

I do like the GIANTS this afternoon. Yes, tough to fade Corbin who has been an absolute beast his last 3 starts giving up 1 run in 23.3 innings. But I think we can see a bit of regression after back to back 8 inning starts. Arizona has had problems pushing across runs this series.

The Giants are bad. It hurts to grab them anytime for sure. But, DBacks struggling at the plate right now. Chris Stratton gave up 10 runs in 7 innings. One game was at the end of April, 5 runs in a third of an inning. The other, his first start after getting called up in July after being sent down after that April game. He has given up just 4 runs in his next 22.2 innings.

Marc Lawrence

Astros vs. Angels
Play: Astros -122

Edges - Astros: Morton 11-6 team starts at night as opposed to 0-2 day this season… Angels: Nolaso 5.75 ERA with 1.78 WHIP last seven starts… With Nolasco 5-10 as a dog this season, we recommend a 1* play on Houston.

Big Al

Tampa Bay vs. St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis -116

Chris Archer has been a pretty hot starter for the Rays lately, but there are a couple of reasons to think that he might regress a bit this afternoon. First of all, the veteran RH has a 3.76 ERA overall this season (27 starts) but his number on the road (4.26) is almost a full run higher than it is in St. Pete (3.30). Second, although Archer has a lifetime ERA of 2.88 in inter-league play, he also has a losing record (6-7) in those situations (17 career starts). And Cards RH Lance Lynn has also been pretty hot of late. Though his string of eight consecutive quality starts ended his last time out, Lynn has been the Cardinals’ most consistent starter this season. Since the start of July, he has averaged six innings a start and posted a combined 2.08 ERA. Archer won't have the benefit of a DH behind him today so he will have to swing a bat. This will be Archer's first-ever start against the Cards. The Cardinals are 27-11 in Lynn's last 38 home starts vs. teams with a losing record.

Jim Feist

Rays at Cardinals
Pick: Under

Tampa Bay has a strong arm on the mound and loses the DH for this series. Chris Archer (3.76 ERA) has 217 strikeouts in 172 innings and the Rays are 24-9-1 under the total vs. a right-handed starter. St. Louis has Lance Lynn (3.17 ERA) going with the team 8-2 under when he starts. The 39-18-1 in Lynn's last 58 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Scott Rickenbach

Astros at Angels
Play: Over 9.5

Very warm weather this afternoon in Anaheim. High temperatures will approach 90 degrees and the winds, though not strong, will be blowing out toward center. The ball tends to carry better in day games (compared to at night) on the west coast and this is particularly true when the weather conditions are like this. The Angels got the 7-6 win yesterday and have now scored 5 runs or more in 6 of their last 9 games. They should enjoy success against Charlie Morton as he has not been quite as strong on the road as he has been at home this season and this is just his 3rd road start since the All Star break. As for the Astros sticks, look for them to "tee off" against Ricky Nolasco. The right-hander has been "shaky" recently for the Angels and, keep in mind, Nolasco is 6-12 with a 4.80 ERA in his starts this season. Also, he's facing the Astros for the 3rd time this season and he's has been fortunate to allow just 2 earned runs in each of the first two starts as he has given up 16 hits in 13 innings. Look for the "3rd time to be the charm" for Houston as they pound Nolasco who appears to be tiring a bit here late in the season. The over is 5-1-1 in Nolasco's last 7 starts. Also, the over is 14-6 this season (and 36-15 the last 3 seasons) when the Astros are on the road in a game with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Houston is 14-4 to the over in Sunday games this season. 10* OVER the total in the Los Angeles Angels game Sunday afternoon.

SPORTS WAGERS

OAKLAND -106 over Texas

A.J. Griffin has scuffled since his return to the Rangers rotation. Griffin went on the DL in late May and returned four starts ago to face the Twinkies in Minnesota. Over his last four starts covering a mere 21 innings, Griffin has walked nine and struck out 14. His first-pitch strike rate is down to 52% and was 46% in his last start. Griffin is made of glass. He needed a Rust-Oleum break for May shoulder stiffness last year too, otherwise pitched creakily in the rotation all season. Recent repairs (2104 TJS, 2015 shoulder, 2016 shoulder and elbow, 2017 left intercostal muscle strain) and poor results keep his run times short with an average of five innings pitched per start when he does manage to get in there. Griffin’s velocity is down to 87.6 MPH and his xERA since returning is 5.47. His struggles since returning (line-drive% jump, 38% hard-hit balls, more walks) warn that his recovery is still in progress and he’ll now face an Athletics squad that has scored 5.2 runs per game on an .803 OPS over their last 24 games and Oakland is night-and-day better against right-handed pitching.

With a 7.71 ERA at home this season to go along with a 2-6 home record, Jharel Cotton does not look in any way appealing here but there could be some hidden value. You see, Cotton has the stuff to dominate and the signs are there that suggest he’s close to putting it all together. His line-drive rate is just 17% so batters are having a difficult time squaring up on him. His first-pitch strike rate of 61% over his last five starts and 60% on the year strongly suggest that there is positive regression coming in the number of walks he’s issuing. Dude has walked 45 in 82 innings and 13 over his last 15 innings. The first-pitch strike rate says that does not make sense. Remember, this is a starter that was called up late last and went 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA over 29 frames. This change-up specialist was dynamite after his trade from L.A. last season, both at Triple-A (2.82 ERA at Nashville) and in his late-season audition at this level. Cotton is coming off a six-inning, four-hit, two run outing at Houston in his last start, which is a good sign for his skills and confidence moving forward. There is no question that his ERA at home is also in line for positive regression. Oakland has owned the first two games of this series and we see nothing changing here.

ATLANTA +115 over Colorado

Just 11 days ago back in Colorado, these two starters opposed one another and the Rockies won 17-2. Coming right back on the Rocks here would be an easy sell but unfortunately it just doesn’t work that way. Colorado is 32-34 on the road, which doesn’t look bad but they got off to a torrid start on the road in the first six weeks of the season. Since then, they’ve gone back to being the same dumpster-fire team on the road that they’ve always been. Jonathan Gray gave up just five hits and struck out six while holding the Braves to a pair of runs in six innings in that 17-2 Rockies victory but we couldn’t care less. Gray is 1-3 with a 5.72 ERA in eight road starts on the season. He’s also had a tough time against left-handed batters in 2017 and he’ll face a left heavy lineup here. Gray’s decision to essentially scrap his change-up, which had been an effective weapon against left-handed batters, might need to be re-considered (change-up usage 2015/2016/2017: 17%/7%/1%; LHB vs. change-up in 2016: .167 BA, 1 HR and 11% swing and miss rate) but that’s a discussion for another time. Right now, Gray has a low 8% swing and miss rate and weak underlying numbers on the road. How many times have we seen a starter slay a lineup one day and subsequently face them again a short time afterward and get his ass handed to him? It happens often.

Mike Foltynewicz’s stock is very low with a total of 20 runs surrendered in just 11.2 innings over his last three starts. Foltynewicz has been tagged for 8, 6 and 8 runs respectively over that span but that just sets up an opportunity to buy him low. Prior to that, Foltynewicz had allowed two runs or less in seven of 12 starts and three runs or less in 13 of 16 starts. This fireballer has shown a steady skills growth so we’re not going to allow three disaster starts in succession interfere with our decision to get behind him. Almost every pitcher will go through rough patches over the course of a 162-game schedule. Foltynewicz has gone through his and so the time to sell on him has passed. If he didn’t have the skills, we could get behind fading him but he owns very good skills across the board. He closed with a flourish last season, he was outstanding for most of this year and he’s now being sold short against one of MLB’s most beatable road squads.

CINCINNATI +109 over Pittsburgh

Jameson Taillon has overcome several health issues already throughout his young career, including a big one this year. Diagnosed in early May with testicular cancer, he missed just over a month before returning to the Pittsburgh rotation. In 102 innings, Taillon has walked 37 while striking out 99. The K-rate is solid and his groundball rate is elite at 50% but we’re seeing serious signs of fatigue that show up everywhere in Taillon’s profile. Over his last five starts, Taillon’s groundball rate has dipped to 44%, which has led to a high line-drive rate of 29%. He’s also walked 4.2 batters per nine innings which has led to a disturbing 1.77 WHIP. Lastly, his swinging strike rate has dipped dramatically and that could be the result of fatigue or MLB hitters getting to know him better or both. Taillon’s swing strike rate is 9% overall, 6% in his last start and 8% over his last five starts. None of that supports the 99 K’s in 102 frames and when you throw in an xERA of 5.56 since the beginning of July, the picture becomes clearer. Jameson Taillon is a big risk in a park like this because batters are squaring up and have been teeing off on him for well over a month.

The Reds will recall 22-year-old Tyler Mahle to make his major league debut here. Mahle, who threw a perfect game on only 88 pitches in April of this season, was elevated from Double-A to Triple-A in late June. His advanced pitchability and knack for keeping hitters off-guard by changing speeds have made him difficult to hit. Mahle commands and controls his 89-95 mph fastball extremely well and is able to spot it impeccably to both sides of the plate. He can pitch up and down, left and right, all the while adding and subtracting from his velocity. He’ll operate with three secondary pitches, including a hard slider, curveball and solid-average change-up. Outside of his fastball, there is no plus offering in his arsenal, though he sequences well and gets ahead of hitters. Not all prospect gems are found in the first few rounds of the draft. Mahle was selected in the seventh round of the 2013 draft out of a California high school and has seen his prospect value increase with each season. Mahle has done a nice job of registering strikeouts in the minors (138 in 144.1 frames with just 30 walks issued) but there is a question as to whether that can continue in the big leagues, as he doesn’t have a true wipeout pitch and his two breaking balls remain inconsistent. Despite his cross-fire delivery, he’s remained quite durable and can hold his velocity deep into games because he works fast and efficiently. With above average athleticism, Mahle can consistently repeat his delivery, which allows him to exhibit his plus command. For his career, he has a 2.85 ERA, 1.9 BB’s/9 and 8.3 K’s/9 over 558 minor-league innings. At Triple-A Louisville this season, Mahle’s BAA was .233 and his ERA/xERA split was 2.73/3.41 over 10 starts covering 59 frames. No matter where he's pitched or at what level, Mahle has dominated. He’s confident, he works fast and he’s very good. He also has an unusual delivery that may take MLB hitters some time to adjust to. All told, he and the Reds are absolutely worth a bet here.

Jack Jones

Tampa Bay at St Louis
Play: St. Louis +117

We are getting the St. Louis Cardinals at a tremendous value as home underdogs here today against the Tampa Bay Rays. They certainly have the edge on the mound today as Chris Archer just gets too much respect from the books.

Lance Lynn has been the best starter for the Cardinals, going 10-6 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 26 starts, including 5-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in 12 home starts. He has posted a 1.42 ERA in one career start against Tampa Bay.

Archer is 9-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 27 starts this season. He has been at his worst away from Tropicana Field, going 5-3 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.299 WHIP in 13 road starts this year.

The Rays are 7-20 in Archer's last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a win. St. Louis is 13-6 in its last 19 home games. The Cardinals are 4-1 in Lynn's last five home starts. St. Louis is 27-11 in Lynn's last 38 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Jimmy Boyd

Pirates vs. Reds
Play: Reds +111

I like the value here with Cincinnati as a home dog against division rival Pittsburgh in Sunday's series finale. The Reds will send out their top pitching prospect in Tyler Mahle, who has been lights out at the minor league level. He's got a 2.06 ERA in 24 starts this season and has thrown both a no-hitter and perfect game at the minor league level. He steps into an ideal situation here against a Pirates team that is struggling at the plate. Pittsburgh is hitting a mere .204 as a team over their last 7 games, scoring 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 4.

Cincinnati's offense is more than capable of scoring runs and are averaging 5 runs/game at home on the season. I like their chances here against the Pirates Jameson Taillon, who hasn't lived up to the hype with a 4.85 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 19 starts. He's been really bad of late, giving up 9 runs on 12 hits and 8 walks in his last 2 starts. He's also got an ugly 7.01 ERA and 1.675 WHIP in 3 career starts (all this season) against the Reds.

Brandon Lee

Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -140

My money is on Boston to bounce back and avoid being swept after two ugly losses the first two games of the series. Red Sox will send out Doug Fister, who is coming off his best start of the season, allowing just 1 run on 1 hit in a complete game 9-1 win at Cleveland. Orioles on the other hand send out Chris Tillman, who has an awful 13.12 ERA and 2.487 WHIP in his last 3 starts, as well as a 13.28 ERA and 2.697 WHIP in 5 road starts this season.