Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, December 18th, 2016

Jesse Schule

Patriots vs. Broncos
Play: Patriots -160

Last year I had my NFL Game of the Year on the Denver Broncos as a home underdog to New England in Week 12. The Broncos won in overtime by a score of 30-24, but I consider myself a little lucky to have won that bet. New England jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, and led 21-7 in the fourth quarter. The Broncos came storming back to tie the game and force overtime, then C.J. Anderson ran in the game winning touchdown. Anderson ran for 113 yards and two TDs in that game, and caught four passes for 40 yards.

The Broncos could really use that kind of production from the running back position right now, but unfortunately Devontae Booker has been giving them very little. Booker has just three rushing TDs this season, and not a single 100 yard game. The situation is so desperate for the Broncos, that they brought in Justin Forsett, who carried the bulk of the load last week managing just 17 yards on six carries. The fact that the Ravens let him go, despite the fact that they didn't really have an adequate replacement tells us all we need to know.

Denver's defense still ranks near the top of the league, but they have had real trouble stopping the run this season. Last week the Titans ran for 180 yards and a TD on 42 carries, winning 13-10. They rank 29th overall allowing over 127 rushing yards per game, and they'll be facing the league's leader in rushing TDs LeGarrette Blount. Tom Brady threw for over 400 yards and three TDs in the Pats win over the Ravens on Monday night. If that's what he does against the NFL's #1 ranked defense, he should do just fine in Denver.

Scott Spreitzer

Packers vs. Bears
Play: Bears +6

The dog has certainly been the way to go, covering 16 of the last 21 Bears' games. We had the Packers last week, a case where we felt they were undervalued, while the Seahawks were over-hyped off their win over the Carolina Panthers. A concern here is Aaron Rodgers, who was hobbling in the win over Seattle. Rodgers' calf isn't 100% healthy and we feel it'll effect his ability to escape trouble. The Chicago pass defense is a stingy one and they're 7th best in the league in total yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, on offense, Matt Barkley has shown improvement of late and Jordan Howard has played extremely well. Chicago has covered four straight, overall, and three in a row at Soldier Field. We feel they'll hang the number in the matchup with the Packers.

Alan Harris

Pittsburgh (-3) over Cincinnati

The Pittsburgh Steelers will look to extend their win streak to five games when they hit the road to take on the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH, on Sunday afternoon. The Steelers have posted a 7-3-2 ATS record in their last twelve games where they faced a team from the AFC and they have gone an excellent 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games versus an AFC North Division rival. They have also gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games and they have covered the number in eleven of their last thirteen games played in the month of December. The Bengals, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Sunday as they have gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win and they have posted as awful 1-6 ATS record in their last seven games where they faced a team with a winning record. Throw in the fact that the Steelers have gone a lights out 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 trips to Paul Brown Stadium and we'll lay the field goal or so here to get the road win and cover in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon.

Allen Eastman

Atlanta (-13.5) over San Francisco

This is the biggest spread on the board this weekend. And it is for good reason. San Francisco hasn't won since Week 1. This is one of the worst teams in football, and they are getting blown out just about every week. The 49ers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall and the Falcons are coming off a 42-14 blowout winner at Los Angeles last week. The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams from the NFC and they are always tough at home. San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS against fellow AFC teams and just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. The end of the season can't get here fast enough for San Francisco. And the Falcons are working on winning their division and getting into the playoffs. This one should be all Atlanta, and I think that this could easily turn into a 30-point game.

Jason Sharpe

San Francisco / Atlanta Over 51

The Atlanta Falcons have gone above the posted total in all six of their home games so far this year. The Falcons' games in Atlanta have been explosive ones this year with an average of 60 combined points per game. The Falcons are also without their top defensive corner in Desmond Trufant, who's out for the year with an injury, and I expect plenty of points both coming and going.

Marc Lawrence

Packers vs. Bears
Play: Under 39

Edges - Packers: 0-4 UNDER in the first of consecutive division games. Bears: 0-7 UNDER in division games following a division game; and 1-7 UNDER last eight games as a home dog. With Chicago having played UBNDER in 5 of its 6 home games this season, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER total in this game.

Alex Smart

Lions vs. Giants
Play: Under 41

The Lions QB Matthew Stafford, injured his middle finger last time out, and despite of expecting to play this week, will be less than 100%. With the Lions running game a below average asset, and their leading rusher missing, I can foresee the men form Motown having problems keeping sustained drives alive and getting scores. Meanwhile, the Gmen have proven, that their offense is pedestrian at best, averaging just 19.6 ppg, with their defense being their saving grace, allowing just 18.8 ppg. Needless to say that his game sets up to be a low scoring affair that stays on the low side of the number.

DETROIT is 11-1 UNDER L/12 in road games after playing a game at home including 8 straight on the under with an average of 35.9 ppg getting scored.NY GIANTS are 10-3 UNDER in all games this season with a combined average of 38.4 ppg getting scored

Giants are 0-23 UNDER with more than 3 days rest when they are off a home game in which they had at least ten more running plays than their season-to-date average and they did not lose by a FG or more with an average of 31 ppg going on the scoreboard.

GamePlan

Detroit vs. New York
Play: New York -3½

Here's two teams that appear to be headed for the Playoffs despite not looking all that overwhelming for the vast majority of the season. And they've done so by both being a LOT better than anyone expected on the defensive side of the field. But the key to this one will be the home field advantage as each team has been really good at home, each posting 6-1 records on their home turf.

The Giants are fresh off their biggest win of the season as they knocked off the Dallas Cowboys last week, handing the red-hot Cowboys their first loss since...week one when the Giants pulled off a great finish down in Dallas. The bottom line here is that the New York defense seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. Sure, they did have a stumble two weeks ago with a road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that team is REALLY good when everyone is healthy and the Steelers finally have Big Ben, AB and LeVeon Bell all on the field at the same time. So the Giants do appear to be heading in the right direction.

And while Detroit is also 9-4, they have won several very close games with amazing 4th Quarter comebacks and even last week against the lowly Chicago Bears, the Lions needed a late drive to pull off a win at home. Matthew Stafford is having a very good year, but the bottom line here is that the Lions have been living dangerously on a weekly basis and that's probably not a great idea against a New York team led by Eli Manning who knows how to finish games.

We would LOVE this play if the line was 3 or less, but even as a 3.5 point favorite, the Giants are worth a solid look this weekend.

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +4 over N.Y. GIANTS

The Giants beat the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football despite quarterback Eli Manning’s best efforts. New York turned the ball over three times and three other errant Manning passes were dropped by Dallas defenders. The Giants have been called the best team in the NFC by some big time talking heads after their season sweep of the Cowboys but it's important to shut out that noise when picking games. We are always mindful of a team that's coming off a high profile prime time win. They usually get a ton of positive attention the following week. The Giants' stock is also high because they've won seven of their last eight games but a closer looks show us it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds. Before their Sunday night win over the Cowboys, the Giants beat the Ravens, Rams, Eagles, Bengals, Bears and Browns. They could have easily lost any of those games, as six of those seven wins were by a touchdown or less. The G-Men were even in trouble in Week 12 at Cleveland. Of that group, only the Ravens and Cowboys have a winning record. The Giants have back-to-back road games with the division rival Eagles and Redskins coming up and are coming off a huge win over Dallas. This now looks like a very vulnerable spot for them. The Giants are really an average football team that has rode a string of good fortune to a great record.

The Lions have been historically lucky this season with their multiple fourth quarter comebacks. Last week, they again needed some late game heroics to defeat the Bears 17-13. That come from behind victory was their eighth rally of the season. When comparing the two quarterbacks in this game, it's no contest, as Matthew Stafford is quietly putting together an MVP caliber season while Eli Manning has been pretty average all year and especially in his last two games with three touchdowns and three interceptions while getting sacked five times. Meanwhile, Stafford has thrown 22 TDs to just seven INTs with over 3400 yards passing on a division leader. Stafford's QB rating is 97.8 and there is something to be said about his ability to lead his team back late in ball games. The Lions are largely being ignored as an NFC power and based on their historical commitment to failure we can understand why. The Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Packers Seahawks and Bucs are all being presented as more credible contenders than the NFC North leading Lions. Disrespect from the media and the market is not only extremely motivating for these players, it puts a big chip on their shoulder that they play with.

The market perception is that the Giants are the elite team in this match-up but a closer look reveals otherwise. Neither team can run the ball and therefore have to rely on their quarterbacks to score points. In that regard, give us Stafford over Eli 100% of the time at this point in their careers. You put these two QB’s in frigid temperatures and we trust Eli even less. The biggest advantage this week that the Lions hold is that they’re catching the Giants after a tough, emotional win. In a 50/50 game at worst for Detroit, the points hold tremendous value here in what figures to be a very low scoring game.

Tennessee +5 over KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs are the toast of the town in the AFC after dispelling the Raiders 21-13 on Thursday Night Football. Kansas City has gotten its fair share of bounces lately by winning four of its last six games by less than a touchdown. Wins over Atlanta, Denver and Carolina all came down to the final play. When they beat the Jags six weeks ago, 19-14, the Chiefs were dominated on the stats sheet and in time of possession. The Chiefs have been called the most “complete” team in the AFC by more than one national pundit but we're not ready to crown Andy Reid as anything other than, “King of the Idiots” now that Jeff Fisher is out of the picture.

Reid barely knows what down it is. After two early turnovers to start the second half on Thursday Night football last week against Oakland, Reid and the Chiefs' offense went into "Operation Shutdown". Nobody plays it safer than Andy. He's not going to let Alex Smith throw the ball more than eight yards because that's when bad things happen. The Chiefs have had at least six fortunate wins this year. The only reason they defeated Oakland last week is because Derek Carr went Brock Osweiler and had his worst game in a very long time and it’s not because the Chiefs coverage was great. Carr only completed 17 of 41 passes for 117 yards, he was errant all night and the receivers did him few favors when he did get the ball close to them. Despite having such a terrible game, the Chiefs scored a lousy 21 points and had to hang on to win it. The Chiefs might be the most overvalued team in the NFL and we will continue to fade them until their annual, unceremonious playoff exit. With a 2-0 advantage over the Raiders, K.C. now has some breathing room. Furthermore, this game is sandwiched between Oakland in prime time last week and Denver in prime time next week.

With three games to go, the Titans are tied with the Texans for the AFC South lead. The Titans are coming off a 13-10 defensive battle victory over the defending champion Broncos last week in Nashville. It was the fourth consecutive game the Titans did not commit a turnover. Before last week's low offensive output, Tennessee had scored at least 26 points in seven of their last nine games. The Titans defense limited the Broncos to just 18 yards rushing and we see that commitment to stopping the run working in their favor this week against a Chiefs team that will risk nothing the rest of the way. The Titans defense and veteran players are still rowing the boat, the offense has a newfound identity and the team has great momentum and a positive vibe heading into this week. Count us in for as long as that's happening and especially this week in a very vulnerable spot for the Chiefs. When a 10-3 team is at home and spotting a small number to a team that few follow, we know what to do.

New Orleans +139 over ARIZONA

The Cardinals are 4-2-1 at home and this is their final game of the year there. However, by losing three of their last four games, the Cardinals fate this year is sealed. They’re done. The offense has taken a major step backwards when passing but what sticks out to us is that the Cardinals are claiming they intend to bring everyone back next year. When an organization is discussing next year with three weeks left, it is a sign of throwing in the proverbial towel. That is not the type of team you want to get behind. That sort of talk resonates into the locker room, which in turn creates a rather nonchalant mindset. Aside from that, Arizona has to overcome a patchwork offensive line here and the sense we get is that they are a team that is not focused on the task at hand.

Nobody with any football acumen was willing to admit at any point this season that the New Orleans Saints were going to the playoffs. They started 0-3 and have been fighting for their lives ever since -- until Sunday. The one thing you could always count on from Drew Brees was at least one touchdown and possibly several more. He set all-time numbers for consecutive games with at least one TD pass. In the last two games, losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay, Brees has no touchdowns and six interceptions. At a time when the Saints needed to build momentum for a division title run, they gassed out against two legitimate playoff contenders and, at 5-8, they’re done too and are playing for nothing. However, we are in the buy-low business and now that this game means nothing, it would come as no surprise if Brees went off here in the desert. Say what you will about Sean Payton but he at least gives it his all every single week and will not tolerate anyone playing at half speed. We’re always factoring the stakes of a game into the equation by constantly assessing what's in the pot for each team and how each views that reward. Our sense from reading the practice reports all week is that the Saints are hungry and they’re playing to win while the Cardinals are looking to wrap this season up after such high expectations went awry. Saints’ outright get this call.

DALLAS -7 over Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers are the hottest team in the NFC. They've won five straight and seven of their last nine after a poor 1-3 start to the season. Despite their recent success, there are cracks in their game and now the spotlight is on them, which is a scenario they rarely thrive in. Jameis Winston is still an inconsistent quarterback. He did not impress last week with just 184 yards passing with no touchdowns against a Saints defense that has been picked on by opposing quarterbacks all season. Tampa's offense has sputtered with just six touchdowns over the last four games. The Bucs are a one-dimensional team that has had to rely on their defense to win games. We often discuss stepping in and out at the right or wrong time. Playing the Bucs here would likely be bad timing, as they have cashed tickets the past five weeks. After being under the radar during this entire five-game winning streak, the Bucs are now getting a ton of attention in this prime time game. This line has been called “disrespectful”. We agree, but it's not the Bucs who are getting the shaft here, it's the home-town Cowboys.

As word of rookie quarterback Dak Prescott's demise dominated the airwaves, we paid no attention to this nothing story. Prescott could not have looked worse on Sunday Night Football against the Giants after posting season lows across the board. After a poor public performance from Prescott, Tony Romo highlight reels have been rolling on NFL Network, ESPN and every other major sports network this week. Local and national radio hosts have been waiting for the Cowboys' QB controversy all season and it's being milked for every drop. It's easy to play results but let us not forget the Giants looked terrible too and the Cowboys had their chances to win that high profile prime time game. We're not going to overreact to one bad performance. The Cowboys' stock is unusually low for an 11-2 team but this is a “week-to-week” league and that Sunday night disappointment sticks out in the minds’ of most bettors. The best plays weekly often involve overreactions from the previous week’s prime time games. A lot of money was lost on Dallas last week and now they’re giving away seven points to one of the hottest teams in the league. The points may look appealing but aside from this being a strong buy-low, sell high opportunity, Dallas is used to the spotlight, as they are in it every year, win or lose. By contrast, Tampa has to find a way to channel all that outside noise into a strong performance but we wouldn’t trust them for a second. This is a visitor that rarely finds their mojo when the chips are down and this is just another time they’ll have a chance on national television to experience the sweet taste of relevance. We’re suggesting they’ll squander that status immediately.

Power Sports

New Orleans vs Arizona
Pick: Arizona

Yet, this is game still takes place in the desert and I say "advantage home team." Unlike last week, the Cards will not be caught in the middle of a driving rain storm. The weather conditions certainly affected the offense from the get-go w/ the first of four turnovers taking place on the 1st drive. But the team ended up hanging tough, losing only a last second FG. Yes, it now appears as if the magic is gone from underneath Bruce Arians' kangol hat, but this team is certainly better than its record and the 1-6 ATS record over the L7 games has resulted in a situation where we can now grab them inside the key number of three, at home, for this matchup. I can't conceive of anyone making the arguement that New Orleans is a better team than Arizona, right?

A major reason for liking the Cards here is they have the #2 defense in the league in terms of yardage allowed per game and per play. It's no secret that if you take the Saints out of the Mercedes Benz Superdome, the offense tends to struggle. We saw that LW in a 16-11 loss at Tampa Bay. That was actually the second consecutive game that Drew Brees and company were held to 13 points or less. Brees' TD to INT ratio in those two losses is an ugly 0-6. On the other side of the ball, the Saints defense may have improved, but the improvement is relative. They were historically bad last year and I still don't think they're in a position to slow down Cardinals RB David Johnson here. My recommendation is to lay the points.

Teddy Covers

Philadelphia vs Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore

I’m getting a lousy vibe from the slumping Eagles, just 2-8 SU and ATS since their hot 3-0 start back in September. Philly’s offense has been limited all year, and that hasn’t changed. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has hit a wall, now that opposing coordinators have plenty of film to study. Top RB Ryan Matthews is banged up; change of pace back and special teams maestro Darren Sproles is out, top WR Jordan Matthews is banged up and their offensive line is struggling in every way.

Defensively, the Eagles have gone downhill over the past month and a half. They’ve notched only eight sacks in the last seven games, and have permitted at least two TD passes in eight of their last ten overall. The Eagles scored another defensive touchdown last week against the Redskins, but they still lost and failed to cover the spread; a major ‘red flag’ moving forward.

And then there are the rumbles in the Eagles locker room. Last week, Defensive end Fletcher Cox was not amused by head coach Doug Pederson’s quote that ‘Not everyone (played hard)” in their ugly loss at Cinci last week. Cox: “That’s one of the things that we talked about, sticking together. And not calling anyone out, not separating yourself. Just sticking together as a team and as an organization and then when I heard that, it kinda wowed me. That’s not stuff that we do or things that we talk about it, but obviously somebody felt that way and they’re going to say how they feel.”

The fact that the Eagles lost at home, allowing 27 points including a late, backbreaking TD doesn’t bode well for their chances of improved chemistry moving forward. And it’s surely worth noting that Philly hasn’t won a road game or even covered a single pointspread on the highway since their Week 2 win on Sunday Night Football against the Bears.

There’s a sense of urgency in Baltimore this week following the Ravens loss at New England on Monday Night Football, dropping John Harbaugh’s squad a game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North standings. The Ravens defense is primed to put Carson Wentz on his back early and often; a strong pass rush teeing off against an injury riddled offensive line.

But the key to covering pointspreads in this range is the Ravens noticeable improvement in their passing game, a team that is suddenly scoring touchdowns after a season’s worth of red zone futility. Over the past two weeks, against a pair of rock solid defenses, the Ravens have scored six TD’s in eight red zone tries. Expect that red zone success to continue on Sunday, setting Baltimore up for a win and cover as home chalk against Philly.

DAVE COKIN

RAIDERS AT CHARGERS
PLAY: RAIDERS -3

Yeah, I know. Divisional home dog, public all over the favorite, looks too easy, etc. So I know the hazards here, it’s not like I’m a novice at this stuff.

Fact is, I generally will avoid the supposed obvious spots like the plague. But I’m riding with the Joes vs. the Pros on this one.

This is an anti-Chargers play for me. I’m sure they’re going to give it the old college try, or in this case the old professional try. But there’s been so much damage to the components that at this point, I don’t think San Diego is capable of beating any good teams. The Raiders are probably a tad overrated, but they have to qualify as a good team, don’t they?

The Chargers are running out of skill position players, and they are also beat up on the offensive line. The coaching staff is, to put it bluntly, overmatched on a weekly basis. This team lost games earlier this season that they appeared to be in great shape to win, and that ended up ruining their quest for a playoff spot. Technically, the Chargers are still alive. Realistically, the loss at Carolina last Sunday ended their season.

Oakland has much more to play for, and the Raiders also have the advantage of plenty of extra rest for this game. They haven’t played since the Thursday loss at Kansas City in Week 14.

It’s a matter of simple addition and subtraction for me on this game. The better team is rested, is much healthier and has much more to play for. The lesser entry is among the most beat up rosters in the league, they are now in playing for pride mode, and the Chargers might have less of a home field advantage than any team in the NFL at this point. That’s good enough for me, and I’m taking the Raiders in this game.

Andy Iskoe

Atlanta -14

San Francisco again let a double digit lead evaporate in last week's loss to the Jets. The Niners have lost 12 in a row following an opening week win over the Rams. This is their third road game in four weeks and they visit the Rams next week. They are 2-10-1 ATS for the season and have 5 losses by 17 points or more, 4 of them on the road. Atlanta remains tied atop the NFC South with Tampa Bay which should ensure to focused effort here such that they should not take the 49ers lightly. They've won 3 of their last 5 games with each win by more than 14 points with the losses at Philadelphia and to Playoff-bound Kansas City. San Francisco does not have the firepower to trade points with the Falcons who lead the NFL in averaging 6.5 yards per offensive play. San Francisco allows 5.9 ypp and their ypp differential of -0.9 ypp is last in the NFL.

King Creole

Chicago Bears +6

Last week, it was the HOME DOG Packers who were Speedee's Dog of the Week. Green Bay not only covered the spread against Seattle. But they won OUTRIGHT by a score of 38 to 10. That's an EASY ATS win by +31 points! This week, our canines are going AGAINST the Packers, who are now laying significant points on the NFC North Division road. We'll gladly switch gears and grab the points with a BEARS team that's already gone a PERFECT 4-0 ATS this season as home underdogs.

Our first query is in regards to Green Bay's CONVINCING home underdog win last week over the Seahawks. Here we go:

(1) NFL road teams off a home DOG win of 28 or more points (Packers won 38-10 last week) have gone a PERFECT 0-7 ATS since the 1997 season…

(2) 3-18 ATS since 2012: All > .500 road teams off a home DOG win (Packers) versus any opponent off a SU loss (BEARS) when the OU line is > 48 points.

Next up, we query this division SPECIFICALLY:

NFC NORTH DIVISION home underdogs of +2 > points (BEARS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS in the last three seasons vs a fellow division opponent (Packers).

Our next look into the database deals with 2nd half of the season division games for teams on multiple-game winning streaks (Packers have won three in a row)…

0-6 ATS last 2 years: All GAME NINE > division favorites of > 3 points (Green Bay) off 3 or more SU wins in a row.

Chicago is on a streak of their own. The Bears have covered the pointspread in 4 STRAIGHT games in a row…

5-0 ATS since 2010: All underdogs of +5 > points off 4 or more ATS wins in a row (BEARS) versus any opponent pff a SUATS win (Packers).

Last week, the Bears went down late… losing a heartbreaker to the Detroit Lions by just 3 points…

7-0 ATS last 12 months: All same-DIVISION teams off a SU division loss of 3 < Points (BEARS) when the OU line is 1 point off an ATS win (JETS / BEARS / BENGALS) versus any fellow division opponent off a SU win (Dolphins / Packers / Steelers).