Bruce Marshall
Buffalo -10
There's a slight pause in our weekly anti-Cleveland case, as rumors are circulating in Buffalo that HC Rex Ryan might walk the plank if he loses this game, after the Bills' playoff hopes were effectively put to the sword by last Sunday's loss vs. the Steelers. Even if true, not sure that it would be the worst scenario for Buffalo to be rid of Rexy's bluster. And it's certainly not enough for us to make an argument for Cleveland. Especially with RG III looking very rusty in his return to active duty last week vs. the Bengals. The 0-13 Browns have not scored more than 13 points in any of their last five games, and their 7-game spread losing streak makes them an ever harder sell.
Tony George
Bucs vs. Cowboys
Play: Bucs +7
Dallas fresh off another butt kicking against the Giants, the only team they have lost to this season, and some vulnerabilities were exposed in that game, although the Giant defense is flying under the radar, the Cowboys looked human in that game and I sure the Tampa coaching staff and looked at that game film a 100 times. Tampa on the other hand continues to win, and it might be ugly, but the Bucs with Doug martin back are rolling and have some good balance on offense.
Tampa goes as QB Winston goes, and WR Evans is damn near uncoverable and should flourish against the Dallas secondary. The Bucs are getting shown little respect here with this line in my opinion. The Cowboys have dropped 3 straight games against the Las Vegas Line and yet oddsmakers still know thew public is willing to lay numbers with the Cowboys regardless of some play that has been less than stellar dating back to the Thursday Night game against Minny. Tampa's defense is better than advertised, and in their 5 game win streak have allowed just 11 ppg, and bear in mind they beat KC on the road and Seattle at home in that 5 game streak.
Nothing comes easy this time of the season, the noose is getting tighter for Dallas and questions surround the team although they should not hit the panic button, the length of the season and the youth of their stars is coming into play and Tampa's go for broke approach should give them fits on Sunday and I will gladly take the Big Points here.
Chip Chirimbes
Giants -4½
Wasn't that sweet Sunday, as the Giants my Bail-Out winner saved the day by beating Dallas! We aside from the fact that I have my STRONGEST NFL card this season today I see the Giants riding that wave of momentum and taking the Lions out.
Brandon Lee
Titans vs. Chiefs
Play: Chiefs -5
Kansas City took over first place in the AFC West with a win over the Raiders on Thursday Night Football. The thing is, the Chiefs can't let their foot off the gas. The difference between winning the division, is a first round bye and home playoff game and having to play 3 straight on the road as a Wild Card team. I love the fact that the Chiefs get a few extra days to prepare, as Andy Reid and his staff excel when given extra time to prepare for an opponent. Kansas City's offense is vastly underrated now that Hill has made his mark and Maclin is back in the mix. The defensive numbers aren't great for the season, but they also haven't had their best defensive player for the majority of the year. Justin Houston is a difference maker and this Chiefs team is at their best at home. I just don't trust the Titans on the road and don't think they are all they are made out be, playing in the awful AFC South.
Jack Jones
New York Giants -4
The Detroit Lions are probably the single-most overrated team in the NFL this season. Miraculously, they have a 9-4 record despite trailing in the 4th quarter in 12 of their 13 games this season. Matthew Stafford has an NFL-record eight game-winning drives in the 4th quarter or OT this season.
That isn't sustainable, and the Lions are in over their heads this week. The main reason is because Stafford has an injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand that is requiring him to wear a glove. We saw how that worked out against the Bears last week.
After the injury, Stafford threw a red zone interception. Then on their very next drive, he threw a pick-six that gave the Bears the lead. Give Stafford credit for leading the Lions on another game-winning drive after that, but he only completed one pass on the drive. The Lions were aided by penalties, and Stafford scored the deciding TD rushing.
Stafford has been testing out a bunch of different gloves all week to try and find something that feels comfortable. According to reports, nothing feels right. And without Stafford on his 'A' game, the Lions have no shot of beating the Giants this week in a hostile, cold atmosphere on the road in New York this week.
Now Stafford will have to face one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this week. The Giants rank 7th in scoring defense, giving up just 18.8 points per game this year. They have held 12 of their 13 opponents to 24 points or fewer this season, including five of the last seven to 20 or less. They limited the Cowboys to just 7 points and 260 total yards last week while forcing three turnovers.
Detroit is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 road games off two or more consecutive wins. New York is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who average 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 6-1 at home this season.
Here's another shocking stat about Stafford. He has only beaten one team on the road in his ENTIRE career that finished the season with a winning record. Well, the Giants are going to finish with a winning record, and they're on a mission here to get a win and inch closer to securing a playoff berth.
Dave Price
Tennessee Titans +6
The Tennessee Titans are built to be a cold-weather team, so the frigid temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City won't affect them at all this week. The Titans rank 3rd in the NFL in rushing at 144.5 yards per game. That makes this an excellent matchup for them because the Chiefs rank 27th in the NFL in run defense, giving up 122.9 yards per game and 4.3 per carry on the season. That run defense just got a lot worse as star LB Derrick Johnson just went out with a season-ending injury last week. Johnson is the heart and soul of their defense, and I don't think his absence is being factored enough into this line. The Chiefs are overvalued after winning and covering in 3 straight games that they easily could have and probably should have lost, especially the games against the Broncos and Falcons in which they managed to score 25 non-offensive points combined. The Chiefs rank 29th in yardage differential (-41.6 yards per game) which isn't the sign of a team that should be 10-3. They lost at home to the Bucs a few weeks back and are now just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Bill Biles
Saints/Cardinals Over 50
Both these teams have the ability to score over 30 points on any given Sunday. The Saints have been struggling offensively and i believe this is the week they get out of their funk. The Cardinals should be able to throw and David Johnson should have a monster game vs the Saints defense.
Jimmy Boyd
Chargers +2½
The perception here is that Oakland is going to rebound off their loss to KC. At the same time, the Chargers are a team that is trending in the wrong direction with nothing to play for. Given these circumstances the betting public will be all over the Raiders in this spot. Oddsmakers don’t seemed to concerned, as they are enticing action on Oakland. I’m going to side with the books here and lean towards San Diego at home.
I know the Raiders loss at KC was their first defeat away from home on the season (previously 6-0). However, it was also their first time playing a division road game. Winning on the road inside division play is no easy task. Especially in a competitive division like the AFC West. Arguably the best in the NFL.
At the same time, San Diego isn’t going to lay down for the Raiders. The fact that the Chargers are still a live for a playoff spot helps, but they were going to show up here regardless. San Diego certainly isn’t going to be intimidated by the Raiders, as they have to feel like they gave them the game against them earlier this season.
I also think this is a good matchup for the Chargers. Oakland’s defense is one of the worst in the league. They come in ranked 26th against the run (120.2 ypg) and 27th against the pass (264.3 ypg). They made Alex Smith look elite in the 1st half last week. Philip Rivers should have a field day against the defense. Much like he did in the first meeting this season, when he threw for 359 yards and 4 scores.
Oakland’s offense is legit, but Derek Carr is clearly not 100% with that pinky injury. There’s a lot of pressure on him to play well, because the defense is going to give up points here. Keep in mind San Diego’s defense completely shutdown the Raiders running game back in Week 5. Oakland had just 89 yards on 25 attempts (3.6 yards/carry). If Carr struggles at all here, the Chargers could pull away for a comfortable win.
Bob Harvey
Celtics -4
Boston (14-12, 13-12 ATS) will play five of its next seven on the road including a visit to Cleveland. The Celtics beat the Heat for the fourth straight time 112-104 on November 28 as Isiah Thomas scored 25 points and dished out eight assists.
Miami (9-18, 14-13 ATS)won the first two games of its season-high six-game homestand before falling 102-98 to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night.Goran Drajic had a double-double against the Clippers with 21 points and 11 assists and is averaging 21.points and 8.3 assists in a four-game span.
The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in the last seven series meetings.
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. the NBA Southeast Division and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games.
Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last five overall and 4-1 ATS last five against the Eastern Conference. However the Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five against the Atlantic Division.
The two teams are a combined 31-22 to the UNDER. The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 series meetings.
The Celtics are 24-7 to the low side when playing on one day’s rest while the Heat are 5-1 in their last six in that same scenario.
Scott Rickenbach
Browns +10½
It may be tough to take an 0-13 Browns team that has only covered 2 games all season. However, isn't it also tough to lay double digits with a Bills team that is stumbling badly? Buffalo, after a 4-2 start to the season, has now lost 5 of its last 7 and the two wins came by 7 points or less. As bad as Cleveland has been they are still "fighting" as the last thing they want is to be a part of history as a winless team. Also, look for QB Robert Griffin III to be better in his 2nd game back. RG III worked the rust off last week! I expect the Bills to drop to 2-8 ATS in games against AFC opponents this season as the Browns improve to a long-term 37-26 ATS in road games with a posted total between 38.5 and 42 points. Look for an ugly game in frigid Buffalo in Week 15 and that means the value is with the big points.
Ricky Tran
Raiders vs. Chargers
Play: Over 49
Scoring: Oakland averages 27.5 points per game (2nd) and San Diego 26.9 points (4th) per game.
Recent Meeting: Oakland picked up a 34-31 win over the Chargers in Week 5.
Derek Carr: The Raiders QB was held to 17-of-41 passing for 117 yards in last week’s 21-13 loss at Kansas City as he was trouble by a finger injury, but with 10 days off since the defeat he should come back soaring today.
3G-Sports
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills -10
Buffalo will keep the Browns QB in the pocket, so he cannot make plays downfield to their only threat, Terrelle Pryor. Buffalo has put some decent pressure on opposing QBs this year - with a good LB corps, Buffalo can, and will cause problems vs an Oline that has allowed 48 sacks on the year. Cleveland have to try and give their QB some help. The 25th ranked running game and that pitiful Dline has to create something to try and get this team something to work towards. This isn't the game for the fix. Cleveland haven't gotten nearly enough from their offensive side of their game to garnish any attention. Browns are bad and I look for the Bills to win in a big way at home.
Mike Anthony
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -6
The defense of Baltimore has been playing even better vs the run as shown with their complete shutdown over the last 3 games - and only giving up one 100 YD rushing game in the last 6. Baltimore have only given up an avg of 68 YD/game over the last 6 - and the unimpressive and middling running attack for the Eagles, on the road wont be enough to frighten them either. Philadelphia has struggled with getting their WRs the ball and their best WR, Jordan Matthews, is not a great target running downfield lately. And their 21st ranked secondary has strayed. Giving up 300+ YD passing games in 2/3 of the last games isn't going to cut it. Philadelphia is on a 4 game slide, on the road - this isnt the place to bounce back. Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Baltimore wins by 11 in this one on Sunday.
Rob Vinciletti
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
The Chiefs have a little extra rest here after beating Oakland last Thursday and have covered 4 of 5 vs winning teams. The Titans have failed to cover 7 of 10 vs winning teams and 8 of the last 9 in the final 4 weeks of the season. We also have a solid system that cashes over 80% long term that plays against road teams like Tennessee that beat the defending super bowl champs and are now on the road vs a team that has a win percentage of .400 or higher. Look Kansas City to cover.
Brandon Shively
New Orleans vs. Arizona
Pick: Over 50
New Orleans is coming off back to back Unders. They have did that two other times this year and responded with an Over. One was a 41-23 (64 pts) @ San Fran and the next was a 49-21 (70 points) vs the Rams.
The Saints still have an elite passing offense led by Drew Brees and a strong trio of receivers. Michael Thomas is expected to play for the Saints and he has been a big part of their offense. Against the NFC West this year, he has 20 catches, 244 yards, and 4 TD’s.
When the Saints play on the road vs the NFC West, the OVER is 10-3 their L13 and have given up an average of 30.6 ppg their L9 on the road vs the NFC West. In this series, the home team has scored 30 points or more the L6 meetings. With both teams at 5-7 and playing desperate, I have to count the Cardinals for 28 or more today. They have averaged 30.5 ppg their L6 home games vs the NFC South.
The Saints defense is still vulnerable and will be without their top cover cornerback, Delvin Breaux.
Arizona’s Carson Palmer is playing better, especially at home. This year he has a 11 TD/ 3 INT mark at home with a 62% completion percentage. He also has not gotten sacked as much at home and the Saints don’t have a very strong pass rush, ranked 20th in sacks. The Cardinals got rid of Michael Floyd who had caught less than 50% of his targets and dropped a bunch of passes this year. They have Nelson who can be used in the slot and hopefully John Brown will be able to go. Brown and Nelson don’t have the height that Floyd have, but are quick and can be effective against a Saints defense that gives up also 12 yards a completion and they should be able to rack up some yards after the reception.
Arizona ranks 11th in the NFL in scoring touchdowns on 60% of their red zone drives while the Saints rank 5th at 65%. I think we should see a 34-31 type of score with whoever has the ball last wins the game.