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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, December 18th, 2016

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Big Al

Columbus vs. Vancouver
Pick: Columbus

Everything is going right for the Blue Jackets right now, who won their eighth straight on Friday night in Calgary. That puts them one victory away from tying the franchise record of nine straight set late in the 2014-2015 season. And the way they're playing right now, it doesn't look like there's much that can stop them - certainly not the Canucks. Columbus hasn't just been winning, they've been dominating the opposition. Consider that during these past eight games, the Jackets have out-scored their opponents by a total of 28-11. And the scary thing for the teams they play right now is that you can't focus on just one or two Jackets players in an effort to stem thwart them. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is the likely team MVP, but from an offensive standpoint, there are just too many weapons for opponents to consider. The Canucks come into this game having won their last one against a depleted Lightning squad that is about as diametrically opposite from the Jackets right now as humanly possible. A repeat of the victory on Friday seems highly unlikely, especially when you consider that Vancouver is 1-8 in its last nine following a win.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:38 am
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Jim Feist

Gonzaga at Tennessee
Pick: Under

A good battle between a pair of teams loaded with talent and strong defense. Gonzaga can play any style and is 17-5 under the total in non-conference tilts. Tennessee is on a 16-5-2 run under the total, plus 18-7-2 under in non-conference games.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:39 am
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Wunderdog

Detroit @ New York
Pick: Detroit +4

The NY Giants are off a very emotional game last week vs. their division rival Dallas Cowboys. It would be easy to see this team coming out with something less than their "A" game off that performance, and that will not get it done vs. the confident and emerging Detroit Lions. Detroit fans breathed a sigh of relief when it was revealed that QB Matthew Stafford dislocated and tore some ligaments on his throwing hand last week, but will play this one wearing a special glove. Stafford has been the catalyst just about every week, leading the Lions back from fourth quarter deficits like it is routine. The Lions own the fifth best record in the NFL since mid-November last year at 15-6. This line is a bit puzzling, as Detroit is still flying well under the radar. While they are 15-6 over their last 21 games, Detroit has not lost any game over those 21 by more than seven points. In fact, if they played all 21 games to a line of +4.5 they would be 18-3 ATS.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:40 am
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David Banks

Tampa Bay @ Dallas
Pick: Dallas -7

The NFL’s flexible schedule allowed the league to move this game to Sunday night. The Cowboys, with the NFL’s best record, and the Buccaneers, who have won five straight, will meet at AT&T Stadium. The Bucs have found some defense after being one of the league’s worst early in the season. Last Sunday, Tampa Bay held a very good Saints offense to just 11 points. Drew Brees was held without a touchdown and the Bucs defense picked him off three times.

If somehow Tampa Bay manages to do the same to Dallas, the Cowboys might be in trouble. Dallas is beating everyone with a punishing offense that features NFL leading rusher Ezekiel Elliott. Even in the Cowboys loss to the Giants, Elliott still ran for over 100 yards. Quarterback Dak Prescott played his worst game of the season getting picked off twice and sacked three times. If Tampa Bay can generate that type of pressure, they can have some success.

Tampa Bay has given up just under 11 points per game in their current five-game win streak. Jameis Winston and the offense has done enough to win games. Winston has thrown for 3,180 yards and 23 touchdowns and WR Mike Evans is third in the league in receiving yards with 1,058. The Dallas defense is one of the best units in the NFL. The Cowboys give up just 19 points a game, fifth-best in the league.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:41 am
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Harry Bondi

San Francisco / Atlanta Over 50

This is one of the few games of the day where we don’t have to check the weather since it will be played indoors on a fast track. Atlanta has gone 11-2 to the over this year and its games have been the highest scoring in the NFL, averaging 59.4 points per game. The Falcons have also gone over in six-straight home games and seven in a row when listed as the favorite. San Fran is 4-2 to the over on the road this year and despite going under in two of the last three weeks they have allowed 32, 26, and 23 points respectively to the Dolphins, Bears and Jets. The Falcons have the highest scoring offense in the league so expect them to get their share of points while the Niners will also have their opportunities to score since Atlanta has allowed an average of 29.5 points per game at home this season. Shootout!

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:42 am
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Ross Benjamin

New Orleans @ Arizona
Play: New Orleans +3

New Orleans is coming off a tough 16-11 loss at Tampa bay last Sunday, and failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. On a positive note, New Orleans is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, and that includes 5-0 ATS in addition to 4-1 straight up if they were facing an opponent with a win percentage of .533 or less.

Arizona has endured an extremely underachieving season, and enters this contest at 5-7-1 (.416). The Cardinals are coming off an overtime loss in Miami last week, and they’ve gone 18-13-1 during their previous 32 games.

Any NFL road team (New Orleans) which is +3.0 to -3.0, possessing a win percentage of .125 to .428, and is coming off a road loss, versus an opponent (Arizona) which has won 8 or more of their previous 32 games, resulted in those road teams going 27-3 SU&ATS (90.9%) since 2011.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:47 am
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Oskeim Sports

Saints at Cardinals
Play: Saints +3

New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games (4-1 ATS this season), 6-0 ATS in its last six games versus .499 or worse opposition and 7-3 ATS in its last ten games overall. In contrast, Arizona continues to be overvalued by the betting market as the Cardinals are a money-burning 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and 4-10 ATS in their last fourteen home games (3-4 ATS this season).

Both of these teams are basically the walking dead in terms of the playoff picture, but the Cardinals are dealing with a host of injuries that will force head coach Bruce Arians to play a lot of young and untested players.

"Good opportunity for a lot of young guys because they’re going to get a lot of playing time out of necessity," Arians said. "So it’s a great opportunity for them. Look forward to a really solid game by everybody."

Arizona will also be without tackle D.J. Humphries, who suffered a concussion last weekend against the Dolphins and remains in the league protocol. The Cardinals are also dealing with the fallout of wide receiver Michael Floyd's release following an arrest on charges of DUI and disobeying an office in Scottsdale.

Reports indicate that several players were disenchanted about the organization's decision to cut Floyd, including fellow wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald considered Floyd a "brother" and someone he has known since he was 13 years old. "I love him dearly and like any other family member I never turn my back on him no matter what," Fitzgerald said. "I’m going to support him. I saw him yesterday. I’m going to see him again today. It’s important during these times to support people when they’re going through some stuff.”

Finally, Sunday's game holds special meaning for New Orleans running back Tim Hightower, who began his career in Arizona. “If I could try to put it in a few words ... it means everything,” Hightower said. “Man, I want to win every game, but this game is special for me. This is where it all started for me. This is the place where it all began. So it’s special.”

There is no question that Hightower will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, and I expect the Saints to get the win for their teammate.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:55 am
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Dwayne Bryant

49ers at Falcons
Play: Over 51

A non-division NFC clash takes place at 1:00 ET on Sunday in Atlanta, as the Falcons host the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are off a 23-17 home loss to the Jets, which is their 12th straight loss since their Week 1 win over the Rams. The Falcons are off a 42-14 beating of the Rams in which they led 42-0 in the third quarter. I am recommending a play on the OVER.

The Over is a perfect 6-0 in Atlanta's home games this season. These games went Over the posted totals by an average of 12.5 points per contest. There have been an average of 63 points scored in Falcons home games this season. 33.5 of those points belong to Atlanta. They should be able to exceed that average against this pathetic 49ers defense, which is DEAD LAST in the NFL in points allowed per game (30.2) and yards allowed per game (415.3).

If you throw out the 'Niners' road game in Chicago from two weeks ago (adverse weather conditions), the Over is 4-1 in their other five road games. Those five games went Over by an average of 12.7 points per contest. The 49ers allowed 36.4 points in those games.

As long as Chip Kelly is leading the 49ers, they will play at a break-neck speed on offense. That serves us well because: A) It leads to more offensive plays per game; and B ) It exposes an already lousy defense by keeping them on the field for more-than-average plays.

The Falcons just might break 40 points again this week. QB Matt Ryan will have no trouble spreading the ball around if WR Julio Jones can't go. There is also the very good possibility of Atlanta having a big fourth-quarter lead (they are a 2-TD favorite, after all), and giving up a garbage-time TD or two. I'm expecting this game to end up around 58 total points.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:56 am
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The Prez

Steelers at Bengals
Play: Under 45.5

Oh, the weather outside is frightful, But the fire is so delightful, and that fire today is the battle of longtime AFC North rivals Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Bengals host the Steelers (-3, 45.5) at Paul Brown Stadium with an early kickoff scheduled to take place at 1:00 p.m ET. The forecast calls for a game day temperature of 25 degrees and wind chill of 15. While it appears that southern Ohio will miss the Midwest snow storms today the game should be a hurricane of an event.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are back a top the AFC North riding a four-game winning streak and staked claim to the first place slot in the North with a 27-20 win in the snow at Buffalo a week ago. The Steelers took down the Bengals by a 24-16 margin in Week #2 and did so without the services of All-Pro running back Le'Veon Bell

Pittsburgh's recent surge has come via a dependency on the running game and the services of Bell. In the middle of the team's four-game streak of wins one would find Bell recording over 600 yards rushing, registering five touchdowns in total and catching 22 drop-downs from Big Ben. Bell has been awarded a minimum of at least 23 carries in the Steelers running attack for straight games. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw three ugly interceptions to the Bills last week in snowy Buffalo without a touchdown pass. However, the Steel Curtain found a way to win on the legs of Bell and in front of a much improved Pittsburgh defense.

Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton has been criticized most of the season. The claims that he on the downside of his career making mental mistakes that he has not made over the last three seasons are not completely accurate. Dalton connected on better than 70 percent of his pass attempts in the Bengals back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Cleveland and did so with the team's best player, WR A.J. Green injured. All indication for today's game Paul Brown are that the Bengals will have to depend heavily on RB Jeremy Hill. With Green (hamstring) doubtful for Sunday's event Hill is in line for a heavy workload.

The Bengals are not a part of the January postseason picture but they are at home against a division rival with the sole aim of making life difficult for Big Ben and the Steelers. With Roethliberger have a season of filled with passing ills on the road and the absence of the Bengals most explosive playmaker on offense this game comes down to which defense executes successfully.

Count on both doing enough to make this a low scoring affair in the chill of Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:58 am
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Executive Sports

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Play: Green Bay Packers -5.5

The Green Bay Packers have suffered extended streaks of success and failures this 2016 campaign. After a sluggish four-game losing streak the Lambeau lot are now riding a three-game winning streak and head into Sunday's visit to the Windy City just one game out of the final playoff spot in the NFC with a direct aim at stealing an NFC North title.

The Midwest is experiencing a cold front and the forecast for this Week #15 contest will be one of the coldest in the history at Soldier Field. The temperature at kickoff is expected to be in the neighborhood of zero with winds gusting up to 20 m.p.h.

Green Bay is making their run to make the playoffs. Coming off 3 consecutive wins, they now go back on the road to take on division rival Bears.

Fox is 2-11 ATS off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less. McCarthy is 29-9 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of the Packers. McCarthy is 13-5 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of Green Bay. McCarthy is 13-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:58 am
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Tony Finn

Eagles at Ravens
Play: Under 42.5

Solid rookie seasons from Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz and head coach Doug Peterson in 2016. The team won't make the playoffs but a 3-0 beginning to the campaign offered future hope for the diehard fans in the City of Brotherly Love. Accolades should go to Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, as well. Philadelphia and Baltimore (-5.5, 42.5) take the M&T Bank Stadium field on Sunday for a Week #15 non-conference event that is Baltimore's to lose, something that is possible with a team that struggles to rush the football, in a game with weather conditions that are not conducive to easy pass completions.

This early Sunday event scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET is forecast to experience wet and windy conditions.

Gameday Forecast: Light rain with northwesterly wind gusting up to 15 m.p.h. with temperatures in the mid-forties.

After a near perfect month of September the Eagles have landed, come back to earth, if you will. Peterson's crew has lost eight of their past 10 events and have failed to cover the oddsmakers handicap in their last five contests as a visitor. The Eagles offense is still a work in progress which should be expected under the guidance of a rookie signal-caller. The O-Line is suffering some late season injuries including OT Allen Barbre who is questionable for Sunday's event in Baltimore because of a hamstring strain. Joining Barbre on the injury list is RG Brandon Brooks who has missed two of the last three regular season tests for personal reasons.

Wentz' top offensive weapon via the ground and through the air, Darren Sproles, suffered a concussion last week and remains in the league's protective custody, or what they call protocol. The loss of Sproles puts a major strain on the team's ability to be explosive. Sproles not only shares duties in the backfield with the aging tailback Ryan Mathews but is the Ravens stalwart return specialist.

Under the gameday circumstances, injuries to several key pieces of the Philadelphia offense and special teams, combined with the weather conditions make this game Baltimore's to lose. The defensive front seven should easily contain the Eagles offense. Baltimore has one of the top-five rush defense (75.5 yards per game) in the league and throwing the football accurately will be an issue for both quarterbacks on Sunday, especially the Eagles rookie.

Baltimore is no longer a run-first offense, although it would benefit them to be so on Sunday, and the conditions will force head coach Harbaugh and his coordinators to be a bit more conservative in a must-win situation. The Ravens defense is allowing an average of just 13 points per game at M&T Park and even on a perfect Sunday afternoon where weather and injuries were not a problem Philly would still struggle to mound sustained drives. The Eagles offense, under the generalship of Wentz, has been exposed. Philly has failed to score more than 15-points in three of their last four games.

The Under is 5-1 in Ravens last six home games when facing a team with an overall losing road record on the season and 4-1 to the low side of the total in their last 5 home games regardless of their opponents record or offensive efficiency numbers.

The Ravens are a pedestrian club as a whole. Baltimore's offense that has finally discovered they can't be a run-first unit. The players and the coaching staff are a solid 6-2 this season against teams with a losing record (out of the playoff picture) and that record receives a boost this weekend as the Ravens win a low scoring contest.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 10:59 am
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Dwayne Bryant

Colts vs. Vikings
Play: Over 45.5

It's an AFC vs NFC matchup on Sunday at 1:00 ET, as the Indianapolis Colts visit the Minnesota Vikings. The host Vikings are off a 25-16 road win in Jacksonville, while the visiting Colts are off a demoralizing 22-17 home loss to their division rivals from Houston. I am recommending a play on the OVER.

When you think "Vikings," you naturally think "bet Under" (especially at home). This total is the highest total of any Vikings home game this season, and for good reason. The Vikings secondary is vulnerable without talented FS Harrison Smith. The Colts duo of QB Andrew Luck and WR T.Y. Hilton will take advantage.

The Colts' defense is very subpar, to say the least. They rank 27th in QB Rating allowed (97.2), and 26th in yards per rush allowed (4.5). If ever there was a game in which this Vikings offense was going to put up some points, this one should be it.

I liken the Vikings to the Broncos in that both teams have a stellar defense, mediocre QB play, and little in the way of a running game. But that didn't stop the Broncos from hanging 34 points on this Colts defense in Denver in Week 2.

With Minnesota home games being played indoors, we need not worry about wind or any adverse weather conditions. The Colts also play their home games in a dome, so the surface will be to their liking.

Counting the game against Jacksonville in London, the Over is a perfect 6-0 in Colts road games this season.

Only two of Minnesota's six home games have gone Over this season, but: A) They averaged 25 points in their four home games against non-division opponents (only 16.5 in the two division games); and B ) One of the two Overs just so happens to be the Vikings' only other home game against an AFC opponent. The Vikings put up 31 points against a good Houston defense. That happens when teams are unfamiliar with each other. This game offers a similar situation.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 11:00 am
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Buster Sports

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
lay: Cleveland Browns +10

The Buffalo Bills are going to miss the playoffs again this year and the Bills faithful are getting restless. After getting just over-matched by a far better Steelers team last week, the Bills now play out the string starting with the dreadful Cleveland Browns. The Browns lost another game last week to Cincinnati to go to 0-13 and we believe this might be the only week they have left to get a win. There are a few reasons for this. One, the Bills will be playing the Browns in the bitter cold on Sunday which could give Cleveland a chance if they could win the turnover battle. Two, the Bills will not have the fans coming out to the game after getting embarrassed last week. The usual home field Buffalo advantage will be not as strong for the Bills as rumblings go on in Buffalo this week that people can't give tix away. All of this puts us seeing a Bills squad that will be totally disinterested in this game. Add the rumors all week that the Ryan brothers have overstayed their welcome in Buffalo and this is a very distracted Bills squad. Then you must remember anytime you get weather involved upsets can happen. The oddsmaker has this line set at 10 at the time of this writing and we love getting these points as the Bills have a history of playing down or up to their competition. Not really sure if the Bills will totally give up but do know that the Browns want to break that goose egg. We are taking the points but would not be surprised with a Cleveland OR win.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 11:01 am
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Bryan Leonard

Detroit Lions at New York Giants
Play: Detroit Lions +4.5

While we know Stafford isn't 100% here, it's still tough to fathom the Giants as a favorite of this size. Just twice all season have the Lions lost by more than this number and both those defeats were by 7 points. The Lions defense has been outstanding all season and have held five straight opponents to 19 points or less.

The Giants on the other hand have scored 24 combined points the past two weeks. This is a team that finishes off the season against divisional rivals Philadelphia and Washington on the road. The former on Thursday Night Football just four days away. This is the least important game remaining on the schedule for New York, after a must win game Sunday Night against the Cowboys.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 11:02 am
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Mike Rose

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati +3

The Cincinnati Bengals have been a major disappointment in 2016 with Marvin Lewis’s squad amassing just one victory against a +.500 opponent. Their other four triumphs came against losing teams. They won’t be partaking in the playoffs this season, so the best they can do is play spoiler the rest of the way. With it already failing to avenge its playoff loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this season, Cincy would love nothing more than to pick it up in Week 15.

Pittsburgh has taken three straight and gone 1-1-1 against the spread in the last three overall meetings, and also come out on top in its last three visits to Paul Brown Stadium. That paired with the fact that they’re in a dogfight with Baltimore for division honors, better than 82 percent of the action is riding the visitors in this matchup.

Even with that the case, the pointspread hasn’t budged which means there is some heavy sharp action riding the home team. Pittsburgh has been an average team away from Heinz Field this season, while the Bengals are on a mini roll and have been a moneymaker in the month of December by covering 72 percent of their last 25 games. I took the points with the Bengals in the first go round and lost. I’m a glutton for punishment and will be backing them again on Sunday.

 
Posted : December 18, 2016 11:03 am
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