Bob Balfe
Giants -4
It’s December. The Lions are on the road in the wind with no running game. This is a team that has won so many close games this year with lady luck being on their side every single time. Close finishes usually find a way to even out and it that case this would be a team a little bit above average. The Giants have a lot of offensive weapons and one of the most underrated secondary units in all of football. Matthew Stafford has been great this year, but things change when you throw a finger injury into the equation with this wind whipping around.
Bears +4
I hate to bet on bad football teams, but this will be one of the coldest games in NFL History. Aaron Rodgers has a calf injury and the Packers just cut a player to sign a third string QB. The writing in my opinion is on the wall. This is a team with a shot to make the playoffs, but it isn’t very good. This is a team that lacks a running game and their chances of winning the super bowl are slim. Sometimes your franchise investment is worth more. I honestly would not be shocked to see Rodgers last only a few series. The edge has to be with the Bears today because they have explosive running backs. Rodgers will not be mobile today which is huge in a game with cold weather and wind. It is hard to move the football even if you are a 10 win team. The Bears have looked pretty good at home and very solid considering all of the injuries this year. This should be a field goal type game.
Raiders -2.5
Phillip Rivers is the MVP of the league when you talk just in terms of who is the most important player to his team. Without Rivers this team doesn’t win one football game. With all of the injuries Rivers has won a few games this year for San Diego, but with Gordon out at running back there just is not enough talent on the football field or balance of an attack to win a game against the Raiders who really need the win. San Diego is uncertain about their future in this city and again have been hit hard with the injury bug. No team is out of a game with the Raiders Defense being so bad, but I don’t see San Diego with very little healthy cornerbacks staying in this game. The Raiders just have too much firepower.
Brett Atkins
My comp play for Sunday is the Colts plus the points in Minnesota.
Both teams have their playoff lights just about snuffed out, but Indy has proven to be "road warriors" as they have won outright at the Jets, at Green Bay, and at Tennessee their last 3 times away from home.
Minnesota as we all know started at 5-0, but have won just twice in their last 8 games, and their offense continues to struggle putting points on the board. Yes, the Vikes did win and cover at Jacksonville last week, and they probably will win today at home, but I cannot lay the wood with them this afternoon in a game that could very well be hanging in the balance until very late in the 4th quarter.
Have to grab the points here and look for the Colts to be there.
Indy the live dog.
2* INDIANAPOLIS
Brad Wilton
With a game time temp of around 10, and a wind chill right around zero, I won't look for very many points to be scored in today's Tennessee-Kansas City contest at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City played a low-scoring game in the cold their last time on field in their Thursday night win over Oakland, as the Chiefs have now played Under the total in 5 of their 6 home games this year - including each of their last 5 in front of the home crowd. Overall, KC is 9-4 Under for the season.
Tennessee is the exact opposite at 9-4 Over for the year, but they did just play a 13-10 home Under against Denver last week, and have played 2 of their last 3 Under the total.
The combination of the cold weather, and Kansas City's rugged defense helps keep this game low-scoring.
Titans-Chiefs Under for Week 15.
4* TENNESSEE-KANSAS CITY UNDER
Ray Monohan
Celtics -4½
The Celtics take on Miami Sunday night and the visitors have value here.
Boston has a huge advantage on both sides of the ball here.
Isaiah Thomas returned last time out from a groin injury and got to shake the rust off against Charlotte. Expect him to be at or at least near 100% on Sunday as he will be a threat outside.
Some trends to note. Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic. Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Celtics are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Miami.
Expect the Celtics to control the tempo here. They have plenty of threats both inside and out that should be able to pick apart the Heat here.
Matt Josephs
Mercer vs. Auburn
Play: Over 144
Auburn was mighty impressive last time out winning 117-72 over Coastal Carolina without Horace Spencer and Bryce Brown. Now they get Mercer at home with Austin Wiley eligible. The five star center just adds another piece to this team that will press you all game long and will speed things up whenever they can. They've scored less then 70 just once this season. Mercer has had their issues away from home losing 79-68 at George Mason and 90-47 at Clemson. I'm concerned about them wanting to slow things down, but I think the Tigers can push their pace at home.
Kevin Thomas
Browns +10½
I know the Browns are horrible but getting this many points against a team that is eliminated and it's coach is a lame duck is something I can not pass up. Teams with losing records after game 5 and forward have been a money burning 35% 45-81 since 1980 if they had lost their last game outrite which we have here. Very few people are betting the Browns today but they are getting padded numbers here I advise waiting until as close to kickoff as possible to get over 10 points.
Brandon Powell
Browns +10½
This Bills team is really struggling down the stretch. Rex Ryan will be fired and the team is uncertain about the future with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. If Tyrod is to get injured they would have to pay him all of the 27.5 Million, they have an option to get out of the contract for 2.8 this offseason. I expect the Bills to play very conservatively in this contest. The Browns are a team hungry for a win. While I do not think they accomplish that today. I do believe they keep it within 10.5 points.
Matt Fargo
Tennessee vs. Kansas City
Play: Tennessee +6
While there is a three-game difference in records, these teams are much closer than that and you can actually argue Tennessee has been more consistent. Kansas City is -41.6 ypg in yardage differential which is fourth worst in the NFL. The only three teams worse are the Rams, Browns and 49ers which are a combined 5-35. It is pretty amazing that a team can be 10-3 yet be ranked No. 24 in total offense and No. 27 in total defense. The Chiefs have benefitted from a +11 turnover margin but they will have a tough time having a big advantage here as Tennessee is No. 8 in the NFL in giveaways with only 13 turnovers overall. While the Chiefs are in a big negative in yardage differential, Tennessee is on the plus side at +10.8 ypg. The Titans have won two straight to remain tied with Houston atop the AFC South so a win here could go a long way as they face the Texans in the final game of the regular season. The loss of linebacker Derrick Johnson is a huge blow for the Kansas City defense as he led the team in tackles by a wide margin with 70. Kansas City is an overpriced favorite and as long as the Titans do not give the ball away, this one should stay close with an outright win not out of the question.
Bruce Marshall
Tennessee +6
When these franchises were known as the Dallas Texans and Houston Oilers, they played what is still the longest championship game in pro football history in the 1962 AFL title clash! They might meet again in the playoffs next month. But even with a 7-1 SU mark in its last 8, K.C. rarely has an easy outing, as last week's taut 21-13 win over Oakland was the first time the Chiefs have played a game decided by more than three points in five weeks. Which is nothing new, as K.C. is only 2-7 vs. the line its last 9 at Arrowhead. Have seen enough progress in Marcus Mariota (multi-TD passes in 8 straight before facing Denver last week) to give the AFC South-leading Titans a shot at a signature win.
Jimmy Moore
4* New England -3
Big time revenge motivation here for the Patriots since they lost last season's AFC Championship game on this field last season. This year is a different season with no Peyton calling the signals and the Denver D not being quite as dominant as they were last season. New England is hitting on all cylinders right now and they are 5-1 ATS on the road this season. Just too big an edge for New England over Denver at the QB spot to ignore especially with playoff loss revenge.
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Sunday is on the Chicago Bears, as I think this line is suspect, and the right side is the home team against the visiting Green Bay Packers.
See, with the Packers playing so well of late, and Aaron Rodgers looking like his old self, I'm wondering why they're laying a measly four points to a team that has looked bleak and hopeless.
The Packers come into Soldier Field with three straight wins after dropping four in a row, and that includes last week's crushing of Seattle, as the defense intercepted Russell Wilson five times.
You would think Green Bay should win this by two touchdowns, but the oddsmakers seem to think otherwise, and I'm siding with them for my complimentary winner.
1* PACKERS
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 19-9 run with free picks, as my complimentary winner is on the New Orleans Saints, plus the points in Phoenix, against the Arizona Cardinals. Both are having disappointing seasons, as neither will likely make the playoffs, and now there's nothing more to play for except pride.
I'm going to loo at the road team since it needs a win here, and then in its last two games, to avoid a third straight losing season. That might also take coach Sean Payton off the hot seat.
And while I know New Orleans has lost three in a row in Arizona, most recently a 31-19 setback in last season's opener, I also know the Cardinals aren't what they were a year ago, and will struggle on both sides of the ball.
Look for the Saints to pressure up front, as the Cardinals are using a makeshift offensive line, and won't be able to protect quarterback Carson Palmer efficiently. And keep this in mind, after the Saints allowed four opponents to score 34 or more points and ranked 31st in the NFL on defense five weeks into the season, New Orleans has stifled five opponents to 23 or fewer points and have improved seven spots in the defensive rankings to 24th.
Meanwhile, the Saints have the No. 1-ranked offense in the league, as they gain 418 yards per game. They'll challenge the Cardinals' top-ranked defense, which allows 298 yards per game. I think Drew Brees is long overdue for a big game, and this is a great spot for it.
Everyone is expecting the Saints to fall on their faces since they've had to travel cross country for this, and with how bad things have been. I'm one of the philosophy to think opposite what everyone else is thinking.
I like the road dog in this one, and be sure to buy the half point up on this field-goal line.
5* SAINTS
Bob Valentino
My free play is on the Atlanta Falcons continue to inch closer to the playoffs, while the San Francisco 49ers continue to move further into the abyss. With this one at the Georgia Dome, I'm laying the chalk for my free play, as the Falcons should win this by three TDs.
What's funny is, San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick had the biggest win of his career at the Georgia Dome in the 2012 NFC Championship, and today he could very well suffer he worst loss of his career.
Kaepernick has completed 131 of 239 passes (54.4 percent) for 1,577 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions, which isn't too shabby for a backup, but he's also 0-8 as a starter now. He won't be able to keep up with Atlanta's Matt Ryan, who will throw all over Frisco's secondary.
4* FALCONS
ASA
Bucs at Cowboys
Play: Bucs +7
The Cowboys have come back down to earth going 0-3 ATS the last three games after covering 9 straight before that. The Cowboy offense and QB Dak Prescott hasn’t been nearly as potent as of late as they were earlier in the season. The last two weeks the Boys have scored just 17 & 7 points not reaching 270 total yards in either game. They were just 2 of 24 on 3rd down in those two games vs Minnesota & NYG. QB Dak Prescott looks like he has “hit a wall” throwing for less than 200 yards in each of his last 3 games with just 3 TD’s and 2 interceptions in those games. Don’t look for the Dallas offense to get healthy this week as they play a red hot Tampa defense that has given up an average of only 11 PPG over their last 5 contest. They have allowed only 6 TD’s over their last 5 games and held both Drew Brees and Russell Wilson without a TD pass during this winning streak. While the Cowboys have struggled on third down, that plays right into the strength of the Bucs defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in 3rd down defense. Tampa is 5-0 both SU & ATS their last five and that includes beating two teams currently in 1st place in their divisions (KC & Seattle). This is a big game for TB as they are tied with Atlanta for 1st place in the NFC South while the Cowboys who have already clinched a playoff spot and have a nice cushion in the NFC East. We think Tampa has a great shot to win this one and getting a full TD gives us some leeway.
The Real Animal
Green Bay -4.5
The Bears screwed me last week but I’m coming right back against them yet again. I can’t resist Aaron Rodgers versus Matt Barkley. Rodgers threw the “one game at a time” theory out the window two weeks ago when he said the Packers had to go 5-0 their last five games. I won’t doubt him. He’s got a bad wheel and still completed 76 percent with a 3-0 ratio and 246 yards against Seattle’s defense. It just seems improbable to me that a team that is 3-10 like the Bears could cover five straight games and all as single-digit underdogs. Green Bay got their best active corner back last week to neutralize Alshon Jeffery returning from suspension. Running back Jordan Howard is certainly a load for the Packers to contain. Frigid conditions in Chicago w/ a game time temperature near zero. Green Bay is getting healthier in recent weeks with the return of offensive linemen and productivity from receivers like Jordy Nelson. Not crazy about this one though as the Bears continue to try very hard. But the Packers own this series having covered six straight here; 13-3 the last 16 meetings; 12-4 ATS plus the Pack is 15-7 ATS as a divisional road favorite.