Free Picks for Sunday, December 25th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
RAVENS AT STEELERS
PLAY: STEELERS -6
I like the spot for Pittsburgh, but so do the bettors and the line is higher than it really ought to be. One of those games where the math says the dog is the right side, but my eyes tell me they’re not. I’m just not seeing the Ravens as anything close to a good team right now as the defense seems to be wearing down and the offense isn’t very good. All about turnovers probably. If Big Ben doesn’t try and force the issue and turn into Santa with the giveaways, I think the Steelers could win this easily. The betting line offers what amounts to negative value, but I’ve still got to side with the Steelers.
Ben Burns
Wolves vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -4.5
This line could easily be a little higher. These teams met here about seven weeks ago. The line was -4.5. The Thunder won by 20. Including that 112-92 victory, the Thunder are 11-5 here at home, outscoring teams by an average margin of 109-103. That includes a 5-1 SU/ATS mark when listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range.
The T-Wolves did win at Atlanta a few days ago. However, they followed it up with a loss vs. the Kings. Even with the victory over the Hawks, they're still just 5-9 SU/ATS on the road.
The Thunder are off back-to-back wins. After winning by double-digits, they won at Boston on Friday, knocking off a Celtics team which came in having won/covered four straight. I like their chances of making it three in a row.
Mike Lundin
Warriors vs. Cavs
Play: Under 223
This will be the first meeting since the NBA finals last season. We all remember how the Cavs came back from a 3-1 deficit in the series to clinch the title, and I think it's noteworthy that none of the games in the finals went over the total posted for this contest. These are obviously two of the better offensive teams in the NBA, but they also know how to step it up defensively when needed. We can also note that Cleveland will be forced to take on the Pistons at Detroit tomorrow, so the Cavs won't be interested in making this a high-tempo game that would play into the hands of the Warriors anyway.
The Warriors defeated the Cavs 89-83 home at Oracle on Christmas Day last year. Under is 11-5-2 in the last 18 meetings overall and I don't see this game going over the total.
Lou Lacerda
Warriors vs. Cavaliers
Play: Warriors-144
Of course the Warriors want to win this one. Green is back in the lineup and when players come back from the birth of a child they play their best game. Durant has struggled against Lebron, but with Curry and Klay on his team he can dish it more often. JR Smith is out. Warriors lost the Championship to the Cavs, then added Durant and now it's come together. This will be the biggest stage for this new Warriors team to date and they know it.
Big Al
Chicago vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio
The Bulls handed San Antonio its first defeat on the road (after 13 road wins by the Spurs to start the season. But I look for San Antonio to avenge that defeat, as they're 41-23 ATS since 2000 if they're (i) off a win, (ii) playing with revenge against an opponent off a straight-up loss, and (iii) not favored by 13+ points. With Chicago in off a 12-point loss at Charlotte two nights ago, we'll play against the Bulls.
Jim Feist
Timberwolves at Thunder
Pick: Thunder
The Timberwolves have struggled this season, posting just a 9-20 record and losing six of their last 10. They have done a bit better for the bettors though, covering five of their last six games. Oklahoma City has done better than expected after losing star Kevin Durant in the offseason. The 18-12 Thunder have seen Michael Westbrook step up and fill the voice. Westbrook is averaging 31.8 ppg and 10.8 assists per game. OKC is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 games and has a 15-7-1 ATS record in their last 23 meetings at home vs the Wolves. I like the Thunder here against a very poor Wolves club.
David Banks
Denver @ Kansas City
Pick: Denver +3.5
It’s an AFC West Christmas night showdown at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The 8-6 Broncos desperately need a win to stay alive in the playoff race. Kansas City (10-4) can clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Chiefs lost to Tennessee last week while Denver dropped a tough 16-3 decision to New England.
Kansas City held a 17-7 lead at the half last week and managed to allow Tennessee 12 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, including Ryan Succop’s 53-yard field goal into the wind as time expired. The Chiefs can’t allow that to happen again on Christmas night. They might also want to avoid what happened the first time they faced Denver this season. The Chiefs needed an Alex Smith-to-Tyreek Hill TD pass and a two-point conversion with 12 seconds left to play to tie the game and then got a 34-yard field goal from Cairo Santos that banged off an upright and went through to win.
Denver has lost three of its last four games and must win if it is going to defend its Super Bowl title. The defense has done its share. The Broncos defense held Tennessee to 13 points and Tom Brady and New England to just 16. The Denver offense could muster just 13 points in those two games. For Denver to have a shot, QB Trevor Siemian is going to have to shine and the running game, which is averaging just 91.3 yards a game, needs to provide a boost. If not, the Broncos will get an early vacation.
Buster Sports
Illinois St at Tulsa
Play: Tulsa +5
The third place game of the Diamond Head Classic has two teams playing that are familiar with each other as they just played on December 7th. In that game the Tulsa Golden Hurricane beat Illinois St. 70-68. Tulsa had to come back from a 65-57 deficit late to win that game. Tulsa won that game despite shooting only 6 for 23(26%) from the 3 point line and they missed 10 free throws. The oddsmaker has this line as Illinois St. minus 5. We had it at minus 3 so there is some value here. Both these clubs have been enjoying the visit to Hawaii and there really is not much motivation for these teams playing for 3rd place. We are going to be happy to take the points in what will be another close game between the two clubs.
Tony George
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Play: Chiefs -3½
Yeah I waited on this this and now we have a hook on the 3 in this game, but for a FREE Play - Half Unit, I will still make the stretch on Kansas City to win, because if they do win, the lock up a playoff bid with this game.
Weather Note ALERT I live in Kansas City. It is going to be rainy and around 55-60 degrees today (must be global warming) but the REAL ISSUE IS WIND. We have 2 storm fronts moving through, winds up to 60 mph , and steady winds once it blows through around 6 PM CST at around 25 mph, making throwing very difficult as well as kicking which might make the total play at Under 37 tasty as well.
The Key is Denver cannot run it at all on offense, and Kansas City can run it and works off a dink and dunk offense which the wind will not affect as much and Denver has issues stopping the run. Alex Smith also the better QB in this game. This will not come easy, but in this scenario at sold out Arrowhead, with a potent ground game versus a non existent one, and a Playoff spot on the line,. KC will be dialed in against their hated rival who has abused them in recent years.
Tony Karpinski
Warriors vs. Cavaliers
Play: Warriors -2½
The Warriors have more to prove and they actually want this win more to prove their worth. And they're actually the better team right now. The Warriors have been figuring things out well with Kevin Durant in the mix and ride a seven game win streak -- covering three of their last four.
Take the Warriors to get the win and cover in this one as they are the better team and even with the fact they are playing on the road they certainly have the motivation on their side and the firepower to overpower Cleveland.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls +9
The Chicago Bulls have fallen below .500 at 14-15 for the first time since they opened the season 2-3. They will be highly motivated for a victory here on Christmas Day to end their recent skid. I look for a big effort from them today.
The Bulls come in undervalued due to going 1-5 straight up in their last six games, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. But the Bulls have a way of playing to their competition. They have beaten the likes of Cleveland and San Antonio this season already.
The San Antonio Spurs really haven't protected their home court well at all this season and are being asked to lay a big number here. They are 8-4 SU & 5-7 ATS at home this year, only outscoring opponents by 3.0 points per game on average.
Chicago is 14-4 ATS after having lost four of its last five games coming in over the past three seasons. The Bulls are 18-8 ATS vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Jimmy Boyd
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Play: Chiefs -3½
I’ll take my chances on KC at this price at home in a prime time game. Kansas City is a perfect 4-0 in division games this year. They already swept the Raiders in both meetings and I see no reason why they can’t do the same against Denver.
While the Chiefs come in off a loss, they haven’t lost back-to-back games since last year’s 1-5 start. They come in having won 20 of their last 24 regular season games.
The thing with Denver is they haven’t really played well since their 4-0 start to the season. The Broncos are just 4-6 since. Their only road wins during this stretch were against the Saints and Jaguars and they should have lost at NO.
Their two division road games have been ugly. They lost 13-21 at San Diego and 20-30 at Oakland. Never really haven’t a chance in either game. They trailed the Chargers 3-21 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. It wasn’t much better against the Raiders, as they trailed 13-30 with less than 7 minutes to go.
Denver is a team that really has to rely on their defense. The problem is they are hurting on that side of the ball right now. Starting safety and leading tackler T.J. Ward is questionable. As is starting defensive end Derek Wolfe and linebacker Brandon Marshall.
Kansas City’s offense has got off to great starts of late, but haven’t been able to finish. They haven’t scored a single point in the 2nd half of each of their last two games. I look for Andy Reid to get that fixed here and for the Chiefs to put together a full game offensively.
Denver inability to run the football has really been a problem. It also favors a Chiefs cover. Road teams who have been outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games and are averaging 70-95 ypg on the season are just 17-43 (28%) ATS since 1983 when facing an average run defense (95-125 ypg).
Harry Bondi
DENVER +3 over Kansas City
We’ll gladly take the points here today with the Broncos. Denver dominated the first meeting between these two teams at home, holding a total yards edge of 464-273 despite losing in OT. The Chiefs have also been a dud at home as of late, failing to cover seven of their last nine on this field and the last 12 times they were listed as a favorite against the Broncos they have gone 2-10 ATS. Take the points with the better defense.
Wunderdog
Boston @ New York
Pick: Boston -2
Boston had a four-game winning streak snapped in its 117-112 loss to Oklahoma City, but the Celtics were playing a back-to-back after winning at Indiana on Thursday. Isaiah Thomas scored 34 points and had 10 assists while Al Horford added 23 points, but the Celtics couldn't overcome the Thunder's 51.2 percent shooting. The Celtics are 4-0-1 ATS playing with one day of rest. Boston won the first meeting against New York 115-87 on Nov. 11th while shooting only 38.9 percent from the field. Thomas led seven players in double figures with 29 points, and the Knicks were held to a .351 field goal percentage. The Knicks have won two straight after losing three in a row, and Derrick Rose scored 19 points in their 106-95 win over Orlando on Thursday. Kristaps Porzingis is probable for this game with a right knee contusion. Boston is 5-1-1 ATS its last seven road games and 6-2-1 ATS following a loss.