Brad Wilton
Free play winner for Christmas is the Under in Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
The Under is 3-0-1 the last 4 times these teams have faced one another, including their 21-14 final back on November 6th in Ben Roethlisberger's first game back after missing the 3 prior due to a knee injury.
Overall, the Under stands at 6-3-1 the past 10 series meetings, and with Pittsburgh having played 10 Unders in their 14 games played this year, and Baltimore trending a tick Under at 6-7-1 for the season, I think the total posted today is a little bit high.
Have to stick with the trends that say to look Under the total in the Ravens-Steelers contest.
2* BALTIMORE-PITTSBURGH UNDER
Brett Atkins
I know Pittsburgh has won and covered 5 in a row, but I just don't see how they are laying what I feel is too many points to this Baltimore team?!!?
Baltimore has won 5 of their last 7 games, with their losses in that span against the best of the AFC - New England, and the best of the NFC - Dallas, so very interested in grabbing the points this Christmas Day.
The Ravens are on a 4 game series win streak, and they have won outright in 6 of the last 7, so why wouldn't I wish to grab the points!?!?!?
Both teams need this one, but only one can get it. Maybe, just maybe the Steelers extend their winning ways to 6 in a row, but if they do, I don't see it being by more than a field goal. That means take the points and the Ravens.
2* BALTIMORE
Brandon Lee
Bulls +9
I'll gladly back Chicago at this price. The Bulls are being way undervalued here against the Spurs due to their recent poor play. Chicago comes in having last 2 straight and are just 3-8 in their last 11. The Bulls are a team that plays up to their competition and we can expect a max effort here against the Spurs on Christmas Day. Chicago already beat San Antonio 95-91 at home and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this one outright. Bulls are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after having lost 4 of their last 5 and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game.
Dave Price
Lakers +7
We are getting max value with the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night because they have lost 12 of their last 13 games coming in. But they are getting healthier and were victims of a brutal schedule in which they had to play 7 straight road games and 8 games in a span of 13 days. They got a much-needed day off yesterday and should be re-energized here. The Clippers are already without Blake Griffin, and they could be without Chris Paul, who missed their 88-90 home loss to the lowly Mavericks on Friday. Paul is questionable with a hamstring injury. The Clippers are 2-12 ATS as road favorites of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 20-8 ATS in home games off 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 years. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston/NEW YORK Under 211
This is the first game of five on Christmas Day and it’s a bet we make every year regardless of the two combatants. What we have every year is two teams playing a very early game after the entire league was off yesterday for Christmas Eve. That means players were hanging out with friends and family while very likely enjoying a big meal and perhaps a few drinks too. The Knicks have been off since Thursday. Aside from that, the early game takes them completely out of routine.
Last year on Christmas Day, the first game of the day went into OT between Miami and New Orleans and still came in under the number by 20 points. 2014’s first Christmas Day game between the Wizards and Knicks also went under. This is very simply a high percentage play that usually hits because shooters do not figure to be sharp at all.
Dave Essler
San Francisco +5
The premise here is that SDSU plays quite slow and has (usually) very little offense. San Francisco tends to score from deep, so they're not playing into SDSU's hands, which tends to be defensive interior strength. This should simply be a close game, and SF may well just win - which is how we feel about most all of our underdogs.
Randall the Handle
Ravens (8-6) at Steelers (9-5)
The Steelers were an 11-point favourite in last year’s penultimate weekend at Baltimore. The Ravens won that game by a 20-17 count. Pittsburgh was also favoured in the initial meeting of these two just over a month ago before Baltimore won again. That makes four straight wins for John Harbaugh’s club. While Pittsburgh would like to avenge those losses, seeing will be believing. The Steelers are on a five-game winning streak but if you’ve watched them, they’ve been very fortunate to win a few of those. Close games has been the norm between these two combatants. Since Joe Flacco’s arrival, 15 of the 20 meetings vs. Steelers have been decided by a single score. Same should occur on this day. TAKING: RAVENS +5½
Broncos (8-6) at Chiefs (10-4)
Difficult to put much faith in the Chiefs on their own field with just two covers in previous 10 played here, including last week’s improbable loss to the visiting Titans. Still, more concerned with a Denver offence that still can’t seem to get on track after scoring just 13 combined points over the past two weeks. Of major concern is an offensive line that cannot protect QB Trevor Siemian (four sacks last week) or establish running lanes for a ground attack. The Chiefs haven’t lost consecutive games since October of last year. They’ve already defeated the Broncos in Denver last month and, while the defending champs own a formidable defence, K.C. has racked up a combined 83 points in the past three meetings. TAKING: CHIEFS –3
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -5½ over Baltimore
We’ve heard it over and over today that the argument for playing the Ravens here is that these two teams are bitter rivals and ALWAYS play close games. Aside from not giving a damn about past results, we figured we’d look it up anyway. Only two of the last six games have been decided by less than the points in play here. Four of those six games have been decided by 20, 20, 13 and 7 points respectively.
As for this one, well, a big game for the AFC North. The Steelers are 9-5 and hold a one game edge over the 8-6 Ravens with the tie breaker belonging to the Ravens so far with their 21-14 win during Week 9 in Baltimore. However, the Ravens are only 2-4 in road games and lost their last four away venues. Their only wins on the road came against the Browns and Jaguars and that might be worth repeating. Baltimore has two road wins this year, one in Jacksonville and one in Cleveland. The Ravens also lost back in New York against the Jets by eight points. While the Ravens have not had an easy road schedule and have been rather close in all of them, this one has a different feel. You see, the Ravens best defender, Jimmy Smith is out and that means Antonio Brown does not have an adequate man defending him.
We also have to pay attention to the total here, which is at 46. With no running game, one has to question how the Ravens are going to get theirs. The Ravens ever-changing backfield flip-flopped again with Terrance West taking the bigger workload than Kenneth Dixon last week versus the Eagles. It was Dixon who had more carries than West the previous week in New England. The bottom line here is that no back does that much and in Week 9, Dixon was held to 13 yards while West only gained 21 on 15 runs versus the Steelers.
The Steelers have won their last five mostly by playing softer teams but four of those five were on the road and their defense is really showing up every week no matter where the venue. A win here locks down the AFC North and grants them a home game in the Wild Card round. Ben Roethlisberger passed for 264 yards and one score in Baltimore during Week 9 and added his only rushing touchdown of the season. That was his first game back from his meniscus surgery and he was a game-time decision. The next week he threw for 408 yards and three scores on the visiting Cowboys and now he’ll face what becomes a very average defense without Smith. The Steelers always excel at working around their deficiencies, and with a rapidly improving defense, we like their chances to get on top of this short price at home.
Denver +3½ over KANSAS CITY
The Broncos are being written off for dead. Losing the last two games likely already seals the fate for the Broncos. Worse yet, the Broncos have only scored 13 points over those two games and there's been problems in the locker room between the defense that has played lights out and the offense that hasn't really seemed to play. The season that held much promise is coming apart and the offense that was just good enough in 2015 no longer is. So, now that everyone is jumping off the Broncos, that’s our prompt to jump on. Denver will not go away quietly into the night. Aside from that, this wager is all about fading the Chiefs, a team that is much worse than the Broncos but the results say otherwise. We pay more attention to performance than results.
The Chiefs swept the Raiders with their Week 14 win but then lost to the Titans the following week after taking a 14-0 lead five minutes in. That makes this week and the next must wins for K.C. and the day we suggest backing Andy Reid and Alex Smith in must win games is the day we take our computers to the back of the barn and shoot them.
Against Oakland, K.C. tried to give away the game 12 times but Derek Carr had his worst game ever as a pro. For whatever reason, Carr was missing wide open guys. The Chiefs have been dominated on the stat sheet numerous times this year. They have out-gained just one of their last seven opponents, which includes getting out-gained by 218 yards by the Jags among others. When the Chiefs defeated the Broncs back in Denver in Week 12, 30-27, Denver out-gained Kansas City by 191 yards. The Chiefs are the luckiest team in the NFL in that they get bounces right in their hands that nobody else gets at the most opportune times. The Chiefs have out-gained three of their 14 opponents. They have extremely fortunate wins over San Diego, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Carolina and Denver. Right there is five games they had no business winning whatsoever which would’ve put them at 5-9 and not 10-4. Alex Smith has thrown 15 TD’s in 14 games. His yards-per-attempt can be measured on a child’s foot. The only nice thing you can say about Alex Smith is that he rarely turns the ball over. WELL, NO SHIT! Turning the ball over requires risk. You know who else never turns the ball over? A QB who takes a knee on every play. That’s Alex Smith. The Chiefs usually lose the time of possession battle along with the yards gained battle but once again, results take precedence over performance in the market. That is something we are going to absolutely capitalize on down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Unless they play the Texans, the Chiefs exist now as early round playoff lunch meat. They are the league’s straight man, here to take a pie to the face for your enjoyment. Betting on the Chiefs late in the season means you never get to be the hero. You don’t get the girl. You don’t get any of the good lines. You are a minor obstacle for the main characters—Patriots, Steelers Oakland etc.—to overcome on the path to glory. You will always be a supporting player in some other person’s story. You are The Baxter. Andy Reid will make sure of it. We’re calling the Broncs to win outright but these points make the value too great to put aside.