Free Picks for Sunday, December 4th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Bryan Leonard
Rams vs. Patriots
Play: Patriots -13
Nobody in the league has been worse in explosive plays over the last month than the Rams, a whopping -9 the past four games. This team just can't put points on the board averaging 12 points per game the last five contests. The Rams have aloso failed to win the turnover battle in 6 of 7 games. When losing the TO battle this season Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS.
New England holds a +35 explosive play advantage over the Rams on the season. With the Pats struggling the past three weeks this team needs to get things right before facing its nemesis Baltimore next Monday night. New England lost the yards per play battle last week against the Jets. In games following a contest where the Pats trailed in that stat this season the team is perfect ATS covering by 10 points per game on average.
Scott Spreitzer
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
Play: Houston Texans +6.5
This number jumped virtually as soon as Green Bay disposed of Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers were as low as a 4-point favorite, but climbed to as high as 6 1/2 and even 7, by Tuesday. Once again, Green Bay didn't run well in their win over the Eagles, gaining just 74 yards on 28 carries, but Aaron Rodgers had a big night through the air. Houston's strength is their pass defense, where they rank 5th in the league, allowing just 209.2 yards passing per game. The Packer pass defense can be permissive and let's not forget they allowed 42, 47, 31, & 33 points in their four games before beating Philly. Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota recently combined for 670 yards passing, 7 TDs and no INTs, over a 2-week stretch against the Packers. Brock Osweiler has his troubles passing downfield, there's no denying his weaknesses, but he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the defense he'll face in this one. The Pack have covered just one of their last five when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night appearance. And finally, the Texans have bounced back well off a bad game, currently on a 6-0 ATS run following a game where they scored no more than 14 points, including 3-0 SU & ATS this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH -6½ over N.Y. Giants
The New York football Giants have won six games in a row, they’re 8-3 overall and they’re the only team in the NFL to defeat the Dallas Cowboys this year. Why then, is the second hottest team in the league getting a near converted TD against an inconsistent Steelers team? If we can help it, we never ignore what the odds makers are trying to sell us and in this case, they are doing everything they can to sell us the Giants. So, if you were leaning G-Men, now would be the time to do a complete 180° and here’s why: The six-game winning streak was great but all games were by the slimmest of margins and New York could have just as easily lost all six. The Giants defeated Cinci by one-point, Chicago by six, the Rams by seven when they scored just 17 points, the Eagles by five points, the Ravens by four points and finally last week by 14 points against Cleveland but that game never felt comfortable for Giants’ backers. That’s a whole slew of terrible offenses that the Giants have played and the result is a bunch of hugely crooked defensive numbers that are not legit. Furthermore, it’s not like Eli Manning and the Giants were lighting up the scoreboard either against those aforementioned weak teams. The Giants do not make up their own schedule but there is a price to pay after playing weak teams. It does not prepare you to play strong teams and that is exactly what the Giants are up against this week. Lastly, the Giants play the Cowboys next week.
Let us now take you back to Week 4 when the Kansas City Chiefs went into Pittsburgh as a 3½-point dog after Pittsburgh was crushed the week before, 34-3 by Philadelphia. The Steelers responded by hammering the Chiefs, 43-14 and we promise you that Kansas City is better than the Giants. Of course, things don’t work that way but the point is that the Steelers are capable of absolutely destroying overrated teams of which the Giants are one. The Steelers are not about to mess around here. Incredibly, Pittsburgh has not won a home game since Week 5 against the Jets. Since then, Pittsburgh has played just two home games and four on the road. Those two home games came against New England and Dallas and against the Patriots, Pittsburgh was without Big Ben. Now the Steelers are healthy and hungry. They were the preseason favorite at many books to win the Super Bowl but injuries and a difficult schedule has taken a bit of a toll. Now it’s the time for the Steelers to thrive and give their loyal fans something to cheer about. Pittsburgh boasts an experienced, accomplished staff with great stability while the Giants newbie staff has not had to deal with a team like the Steelers in early December when the chips are down. This is a mismatch any way you slice it because Pittsburgh wins games with the exact formula the Giants employs to lose them only that divergence has not been revealed this year. It will be here.
ATLANTA -5½ over Kansas City
Kansas City is no joke. Since starting 0-5 last season, Andy Reid’s Chiefs have posted a record of 19-3, by far the best in the league. Still, when we do bet them, we are almost always screaming at the TV because they always seem to do it the hard way and get big breaks at the most opportune times. Last week, the Chiefs mounted a successful comeback to throw the game into overtime and then kicked the winning field goal that the Broncos were unable to get on the previous series. A second road game is tough after a full five quarter game the previous week against one of their most hated rivals. The Chiefs also have to resist the urge to look past this to next week’s showdown with the Raiders. Alex Smith somehow pulls rabbits out of his hat too. Here’s a guy that was sacked six times last week. Here’s a guy that is being asked to throw four yards or less on just about every attempt. Only when the Chiefs are desperate for a late TD to tie or win it will Reid open up the playbook. How this team has won 19 of 22 games is a mystery but perhaps it speaks to all the weak or beatable teams in this league. Or perhaps it speaks to just how fortunate these Chiefs have been. Perhaps the Chiefs are a joke.
Let’s not forget that Kansas City had a chance to keep their spot at the top of the division with a home win against 4-5 Tampa Bay two weeks ago in a game that most thought would be a comfortable one. Instead, the Bucs rolled up 442 yards of offense, converted 11 of 16 third down plays and dominated the Chiefs for most of the game in a 19-17 win. The week before that, the Chiefs looked they were going to get blown out in Carolina but another late fourth quarter rally and some poor ball handling skills by the Panthers allowed them to pull another rabbit out of their hat. The week before that, the Chiefs were once again dominated on the stat sheet in Jacksonville but pulled out another miracle win in a game they had no business winning whatsoever.
Matt Ryan continues his career best season. He's already totaled 26 touchdowns with five games over 300 yards. He's been at his best at home too. The Falcons played a solid game in a blowout win over the Cardinals last week. That victory keeps them one game ahead of the Buccaneers and in the running for the #2 seed in the NFC thanks to the Seahawks' loss. Situationally speaking, the Falcons and their high octane offense are in such a better spot here. Last week was not draining. Next week, the Dirty Birds are in Los Angeles. They control their own fate and figure to be ready and focused here. By contrast, the Chiefs won an emotional and hard fought overtime game that went the distance last week in prime time and they have the Raiders up next. This week’s game is against an NFC opponent on the road and after getting torched on the stat sheet against both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay very recently, the Chiefs are not likely going to be able to trade punches with the Falcons. There will be no rabbits this week for the Chiefs to pull out.
Washington +115 over ARIZONA
It's Week 13 and you can throw preseason hype right out the window. We've seen enough from the Cardinals to know it's over. Bruce Arians should be on the hot seat, as he seems to get dumber with each passing week and he’s coaching an incredibly undisciplined bunch. The Cardinals took eight penalties for 60 yards in a 38-19 blowout loss in Atlanta last week. These Cardinals don't even look like they practice. Larry Fitzgerald is the only receiver that knows what route he's running. Carson Palmer is finished. Instead of talking playoffs, the Cards should be scouting this year's NCAA quarterback class. Arizona’s pedigree over the years is one of a structurally sound group that is difficult to play against but that is no longer the case. They are now soft and extremely beatable with no appeal whatsoever.
The Redskins are quietly having a nice season that's been overshadowed by the 10-1 Cowboys. Add the fact the 'Boys took a stranglehold on the NFC East with their 31-26 win over Washington on Thanksgiving and it's easy to overlook the 'Skins. We will not. Kirk Cousins backed up his bold public contract demands with another great game. We often see appeal in these road dogs getting +2½ points because odds makers are enticing bettors to side with the home team. Many bettors want that extra half point on the dog and instead of hanging it up there, the odds makers make the favorite more enticing by making a FG victory a winning bet. The total in this game is 49½, which is a pretty fat number. Who do you trust to put up those points? Washington has deep threats with DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Jamison Crowder has been one of the more reliable receivers in the league this season. Tight end Jordan Reed is nearly impossible to cover. The Redskins hung with the best team in the NFC and had their chances to win that game in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Washington gets better every single week while the Cardinals look to be on the verge of quitting if they haven’t already. How the Cardinals can be the favorite against a legit playoff contender is mystifying. Carson Palmer is down at the bottom of the QB Passer Ratings while the Redskin's defense is thriving and so is the offense. ‘Skins outright.
BALTIMORE -3½ over Miami
After a six game winning streak, ESPN said, “The Dolphins have the look of a legitimate playoff team.” It's been a nice run and story but we're here to pump the breaks on Miami's post season aspirations. We cannot ignore the last two weeks where the Dolphins barely escaped with victories against San Francisco and Los Angeles. Last week it took a game saving tackle from Kiko Alonso on 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who was stopped just short of forcing overtime. Two weeks ago, Miami looked dead in the water in L.A. but somehow pulled out a miracle win with 14 points late in the fourth quarter. Five of the Dolphins six wins during this span have come by one score or less. It's a fine line to toe especially with the league’s 30th ranked run defense. The Dolphins are a middle of the pack team when it comes to points allowed per game. It's like they've won six coin flips in a row. After breaking out with back to back 200 yard games, running back Jay Ajayi has struggled the last three weeks by failing to reach the 100 yard mark each time. Last week against the 49ers, Ajayi could only muster 45 yards on 18 carries. He's trending in the wrong direction and doesn’t figure to get back on track when facing the NFL’s top run defense here. Ryan Tannehill is just about due for another one of those games that he has several of each year in which he looks like the worst QB ever.
The Ravens have won three of their last four. Their only loss over that span was against the 10-1 Cowboys in Dallas. Baltimore is in the clutter of teams contending for a Wild Card playoff spot but they also control their own destiny in the AFC North. On the surface, the Ravens have been great this season with the number one ranked run defense, allowing just 76 yards a game. Under the hood, the Ravens have the number one Weighted Defense in the league, a stat that is adjusted as the season goes on, making the games played earlier in the year less important. It’s a good way to measure a team's current form and/or progress. Offensively, the Ravens are still capable of making the big play and they should be able to establish a run game against a weak Miami run defense. This line opened at -3½ for the Ravens, which is a number we love to see when playing favorites. That "hook" on a key number like "3" is an added enticement by the odd makers to take the points. We will not be fooled, as the Ravens are built to win in November while the Dolphins are likely to freeze, just like they did the past two weeks but got away with it. They won’t get away with it here.
Buffalo +3 over OAKLAND
The Raiders are one of the NFL’s biggest headlines in 2016. The Raiders sit at 9-2 while owning one of the best records in the league and an AFC-leading mark that they currently share with the New England Patriots. The Raiders are in position to do big things. This is a squad that is currently contending for home field advantage and a first-round bye in the AFC leg of the playoffs after missing the post-season last year with an 8-8 mark. The Raiders seem to get better each and every week. They have now won five in a row while knocking off both participants in last year’s Super Bowl along the way. After defeating the Panthers last week behind a very impressive first half, the Raiders hype has hit new heights. They have moved up to #2 on many publications power rankings. The odds on them to win the Super Bowl dropped dramatically. Every sports show on both radio and television is talking the Oakland Raiders this week. Why then are the Raiders such a small favorite against the Bills? If the Bills were visiting the exact same 9-2 New England Patriots this week (a much shorter trip against a familiar foe), the line would not be -3. It would be twice that and maybe even -7. So, before you pull the trigger on the Raiders, think about that for a second. One of the criteria’s for successful wagering is to recognize trouble spots or trap games and this is a prime example of that.
In many markets, if the game is considered a toss-up on a neutral site, the home team will give three points to the intruder by default and that is what looks to be the situation here. So why is Oakland, a team with a better record and a clear hot hand, considered a toss-up anywhere else against a team like Buffalo? Very simple, Oakland is not as good as their record suggests. The Raiders own one of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL in every major category. The Black and Silver are among the worst in Total Defense and Passing Defense and while that may bear little significance to a maligned offense like Buffalo’s, we can’t help but ponder if the Raiders will offer any concessions to this visitor. Oakland’s suspect defense has put the Raiders in predicaments where they could have lost many more games than the record they currently sport implies. Five of Oakland’s nine victories this year were by margins of four points or less. Eight of Oakland’s wins were by a touchdown or less and one of these triumphs required overtime. It seems that the Raiders have been the benefactors of good fortune and it is only a matter of time until when that good fortune runs out. The odds makers did not make a mistake in setting this line. They’re betting that Oakland is in big trouble this week and we’re going to pay attention to that big time.
DAVE COKIN
BILLS AT RAIDERS
PLAY: BILLS +3
The general consensus among those who put their faith in analytics is that the Oakland Raiders are a bit on the overrated side. True enough, the stats aren’t all that impressive for this football team. On the flip side, the Raiders keep winning games, and they’ve got a great attitude that reflects the bold coaching philosophy of Jack Del Rio. Barring a late collapse, it’s a slam dunk that Del Rio will be garnering a load of Coach of the Year votes.
The Bills head west playing some good football of their own, but Buffalo really needs to win this game if they want to maintain any realistic playoff hopes. Simply stated, slipping back to .500 wouldn’t kill the Bills, but it would severely hamper their chances of playing past the regular season.
I think Buffalo has a great chance to win this game. Statistically, this is a close game on paper. Several models that are heavily metric-based will have the Bills coming out on top. I put a certain amount of faith in those numbers, but I’m also cognizant of the fact that there are always a few teams that either outperform the data or don’t live up to what they ought to be doing. The Raiders are clearly members of the former group, as they’ve done a tremendous job of exceeding expectations.
However, this is a challenging scheduling spot for Oakland. The Raiders are off a very dramatic win against Carolina, one in which they blew a big lead and then put together a great rally to notch a key win. Next up is a huge divisional battle on Thursday evening at Kansas City. There’s at least a chance this could be a flat sandwich spot for Oakland.
Between the numbers and the scheduling, plus the decent current form of the underdog, I’m going to take the points in this game and will go with the Buffalo Bills.
Sleepyj
Bucs +4
The big success in the Bucs recent 3 game winning streak has been fueled by the defense...They have allowed a total of 32 points in those 3 winning contests...They beat some decent teams and they really took it to the Seahawks last week....This Tampa team in most of our minds would be right about at this record right now...I had them slightly above and finishing the season 9-7 fwiw...This is almost a must win game for them or the season could be lost...The Chargers on the other hand hold a slim HFA and the season for them is lost at this point...Chargers sit 5-6 and would need to reel off a few game winning streak..I just don't see that happening...Tampa has been running and passing much better which keeps them in the game...One part or another for the Chargers seems to fall off in every game and I expect that again..I still think the Bucs finish with a winning record, but winning this game won't be easy...I made my line for this game SD -1.5...So grabbing this over the key number of 3 is a no brainer for me today...I can see a 1-3pt game here...I feel the Bucs passing game will make some big plays and the Tampa defense keeps true to it's recent form.
King Creole
Dolphins +3.5
Right now (Friday evening), the line in this one is currently MIAMI +3.5. Obviously, the higher the line… the better it is for us. But at the very least, make sure that you get a 'FIELD GOAL and a HOOK' in this one.
We're going right back to what worked for us last week, when we hit with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The most profitable situation for underdogs in the last two years have been when these 'pups' are playing with the CONFIDENCE of multiple wins in a row under their belts.
39-18-4 ATS last two seasons (68%): All NFL underdogs off back-to-back SU wins (DOLPHINS). These teams have gone 23-9-2 ATS (72%) when priced as an underdog of 3.5 or MORE points. That includes 19-5-2 ATS when playing on the ROAD (like the DOLPHINS)… and 9-1 ATS so far THIS season (90%) in NON-division play.
In last week's slim win for Baltimore, they scored only 19 points at home in their game against division rival Cincinnati… 1-12 ATS last four years: All NFL home favorites of > 1 point off a SU division home win in which they scored 2 points who scored 31 > points last week (MIAMI) versus any opponent who scored .250 opponent (DOLPHINS). In the last four years, these teams have gone a PERFECT 0-6-2 ATS…
We also ran a query for underdogs like Miami who are on BIG-time multiple game winning streaks… The sample size is small, but in the last four seasons… NFL underdogs off 5 or more SU wins in a row (MIAMI) have gone a PERFECT 5-0 ATS versus any opponent off a SU and ATS win (Baltimore).
A current in-season 'division vs division' pattern tells us that we are on the right side… In the last 5 weeks, AFC EAST Division teams (DOLPHINS) have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS versus AFC NORTH Division opponents.
Bruce Marshall
Patriots -13
Though the Patriots have looked a bit flat since their bye week (just 1-2 vs.line last three), that's relative in comparison to the plight of the Rams, who have won just once since Columbus Day and are now dealing with rookie QB Jared Goff learning on the job. Yes, Goff surprised with 3 TDP last week at New Orleans. But the Rams couldn't score anything in the second half vs. one of NFL's worst defenses, and Bill Belichick has had lots of fun in the past at the expense of rookie QBs. Moreover, Todd Gurley's UCLA-like 3.2 ypc is still not providing much balance for the attack. Would prefer a healthy Gronk to help Tom Brady (nagging knee injury) extend the margin. But would rather wait for Goff to at least get a pointspread W before risking a wager on the Rams.
Rob Vinciletti
Broncos vs. Jaguars
Play: Broncos -3
Denver will have Paxton Lynch playing today and will respond big off the home loss to KC. The Broncos have covered 9 straight as a road favorite after a game where they controlled the ball for 34 or more minutes. Defending champs that are not laying more than have cashed 22 of 25 times off a favored loss vs a team off a spread win like the Jags. Denver has covered 3 of 4 as a road favorite in this range and Jacksonville has failed to cover 5 of 7 as a home dog in this range. Look for Denver to bounce back particularly on defense off the tough OT Division loss to KC. Play on Denver.
Joseph D'Amico
Dolphins vs. Ravens
Play: Dolphins +3½
The Miami Dolphins OL has gotten a bit healthier recently, which has played a major factor in the teams current, 6-game SU (5-1 ATS) win streak, while committing just 2 TO's during the victories. Baltimore tops the AFC North (along with Pittsburgh, but beat the Steelers TY) despite averaging a dismal, 19.8 PPG. The Ravens have no ground game to speak of. Miami matches up well here as they possess a Top-10 defense vs. the pass. Speaking of Joe Flacco, the QB is on an 0-8 ATS run as a favorite in the month of December. Baltimore is 5-15 ATS their L20 games played in the month of December while Miami is 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. AFC opponents.
Tony George
Dolphins vs. Ravens
Play: Dolphins +3½
The Ravens cashed a ticket last week against the hapless Bengals laying 5 points in a game that came down to the wire when Andy Dalton fumbled the game away, meanwhile the Dolphins beat San Fran for their 6th win a row. It is apparent to me that oddsmakers and sports fans are discounting the job that Adam Gase is doing here in Miami. The Ravens at 6-5 lead their division but their schedule has been weak and they have barely beat lesser teams than Miami.
Miami has a more balanced offensive attack and are running the ball extremely well, taking the heat off their QB and also playing some decent defense. The Ravens have lost to any good team they played this year, beat the Jags by 2 points, beat the Steelers when Big Ben came back to soon and played terrible, and beat the Browns twice. Not a resume that scares me when taking the points, and the KEY in this game, which should be tight, it the hook on the number of 3, which the Ravens are laying 3.5. I think this comes down to the number itself, a 3 point game one way or the other, and having the hook on a fall number is worth taking with a red hot Dolphins team against a beatable opponent on the road.
Remember one thing, you are betting into numbers and not games, and this also may be a strong side in a 2 team 6 point teaser taking the Dolphins to +9.5 and getting through the key numbers of 6 and 7 along the way! The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS with games in December dating back over 2 years, but the tide has changed in Miami and and outright SU win would not surprise me here.
Chip Chirimbes
Eagles vs. Bengals
Play: Bengals -1½
The Bengals fall has been swift and is not finished. Well, this bunch of dirty late hitting bums will have a field day at Philadelphia's rookie quarterback. Cincinnati needs a win in the worst way and they get it here.
Brandon Lee
Eagles vs. Bengals
Play: Bengals -1½
Cincinnati has been a major disappointment this season and are dealing with some big injuries, but I liked what I saw from this team last week against the Ravens. The Bengals still believe they can get this turned around and fight there way back into the race for the AFC North title. Do to so, this is a game they absolutely have to have. I like their chances against a Eagles team that continues to get a lot of love, despite the fact that they haven't producing on the field, especially on the road. Philadelphia is just 2-6 since their 3-0 start and are just 1-5 on the road. Their loss on Monday Night Football was perceived to be more of the Packers getting things figured out, but I think it was more of how bad the Eagles are playing right now.
Dave Price
Eagles vs. Bengals
Play: Eagles +1½
The Cincinnati Bengals should not be favored here. They are in a bad place mentally right now after their 14-19 loss at Baltimore last week essentially sealed their fate. They sit at just 3-7-1 on the season and have no shot of making the playoffs. That's especially the case since they are without their two best playmakers on offense in AJ Green and Giovani Bernard due to season-ending injuries. I don't expect them to show up at all Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles still have a shot at making the playoffs. They are 5-6 on the season and just 1.5 games back of the Redskins for the final wild card spot. They will show up this weekend because of it. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. Cincinnati is 2-8-1 ATS in all games this season.
Bill Biles
Bucs vs. Chargers
Play: Bucs +4
Winners of 3 straight the Bucs are playing great football. The defense has really turned it around as they completely shut down the Seahawks last week. Bucs have the offensive weapons to go into San Diego and compete and keep the game close and even win.