Teddy Covers
Panthers vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 44
Great quarterbacks can only play like great quarterbacks when they have some semblance of an offensive line to protect them. When these two teams met twice last year, both offensive lines were in good shape.
Russell Wilson and Cam Newton had a running game that balanced their downfield passing attack. Seattle scored 23 and 24 points in those two games, but they lost them both in SU fashion, cashing a pair of Over tickets in the process.
That was then. This is now. The Seahawks offensive line is in complete disarray right now. Three rookies started on that OL last week. They’ll be starting their fifth different combo of offensive linemen this week. Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell, talking about the struggles of his OL:“We are just trying to find the best five guys. If it changes every week, then it changes every week.”
Russell Wilson got sacked six times last week, but it was far worse than that – Wilson was running for his life, quite literally, on just about every snap. That game marked the THIRD time this year in which the Seahawks offense didn’t reach the end zone even once. Expecting an offensive explosion from the Seahawks this week is an exercise in optimism!
But the Panthers offensive line is in even worse shape than the Seahawks OL! Four of their five starters have been officially ruled ‘Out’ for Sunday Night’s affair. Michael Oher didn’t make the trip out West. Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski got hurt last week against the Raiders. The Panthers were forced to make a signing from the Cleveland Browns practice squad just to have enough healthy bodies here. I don’t care how you spin it -- you don’t want to be bringing guys in from the Browns practice squad in Week 13 at Seattle!
Ron Rivera knows what’s coming; talking about his offensive line woes: “It’s about as catastrophe as you can get. I mean, when you look at the losses we’ve had this year. But our coaches will coach up the guys that are available to us.” Against the Seahawks elite stop unit, playing in front of that 12th man crowd, expect Carolina, like Seattle, to struggle to score touchdowns.
Marc Lawrence
Dolphins vs. Ravens
Play: Dolphins +3½
Edges - Dolphins 5-1 ATS last 6 games in Baltimore; and 14-8 ATS away during December since 2004. Ravens: Flacco 3-13 ATS last 16 starts in December, including 0-8 ATS as a favorite. With the Ravens 0-5 ATS in their 2nd to last home game the last five years, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.
Mike Lundin
Broncos vs. Jaguars
Play: Broncos -3
The Denver Broncos are coming off a disappointing 30-27 Sunday night loss to Kansas City. I think the lowly 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars will pay the price this week. Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games following a straight up loss and it needs to rack up wins in order to catch the surging Oakland Raiders at the top of the AFC West. Jacksonville has lost six in a row overall and the Jags have an NFL-worst minus-15 in turnover differential this season. Denver's QB Trevor Siemian threw for a personal-best 368 yards and three touchdowns last week but sustained a foot injury and has been limited at practice this week. It's not the Broncos' offense that will win them this game though, but their D. Look for Denver to win and cover the spread at EverBank Field this Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
Chiefs vs. Falcons
Play: Chiefs +6
I’ll take the points with Kansas City on the road against the Falcons. The Chiefs are tied for the 4th best record in the league, yet no one wants to give them any respect. Which is a little bit surprising given KC is now 18-3 in their last 21 regular season games.
I know the Falcons have an elite offense, but the Chiefs are trending up on the defensive side of the ball. A big part of that is the return of star outside linebacker Justin Houston. He was dominant against Denver and that dynamic pass rush is something they have been lacking.
Keep in mind the Chiefs were missing two key players on defense last week. One being outside linebacker Dee Ford, who is T-2nd in the NFL with 10 sacks. He's expected to be back in action this week. These two are going to live in Atlanta's backfield and really make life miserable for Matt Ryan, who likes to throw the ball down the field.
I’m not saying the Chiefs are going to completely shut down the Falcons, but they can keep them from going off. That should be all the offense needs to keep this game close and potentially win outright. While KC’s offense is limited, this Atlanta defense is one they can have success against. The Falcons rank 27th in total defense (381.0 ypg) and 29th in scoring defense (27.5 ppg).
Keep in mind this is also an Atlanta defense that has recently loss two of their top defensive players. Shutdown corner Desmond Trufant is likely out the rest of the year. He’s by far their best cover guy. They will also be without defensive end Adrian Clayborn for an extended period. A big loss, as he’s second on the team with 4.5 sacks.
It’s also worth pointing out the Chiefs have been road covering machines under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 16-6 ATS on the road after the 1st month of the season under Reid. KC is also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams allowing 24.0 or more ppg. On the flip side of this, Atlanta has struggled to cover as a favorite under Dan Quinn. They are just 3-11 ATS as a favorite since he took over as head coach.
Sean Murphy
Raiders -3
Oakland continues to defy odds and outperform expectations and I don't see that changing this week.
Buffalo is coming off back-to-back wins, but those victories came against two struggling opponents in the Bengals and Jaguars. Note that the Bills remain just 5-6 ATS on the season.
The Raiders are leading the AFC West and have shown no signs of slowing down. They faced some adversity last week, falling behind against the Panthers entering the fourth quarter but ultimately rallied for another victory. I believe that performance will serve them well moving forward.
Save for an upset win against the Patriots, the Bills have struggled when stepping up in class this season. I simply don't think that they're as good as their 6-5 SU record would indicate.
The Raiders were a seven-point underdog the last time they faced Buffalo in 2014 - a game they won by two points at home. They're favored this time around, but the line is warranted in my opinion.
Bob Harvey
Knicks -2½
The Sacramento Kings look to continue their domination of the New York Knicks when the two teams collide tonight in the Big Apple. Sacramento took both meetings last season by a total of 10 points.
The Kings (7-12, 11-7 ATS) are 3-6 over its last nine games, but only one of those losses was by double figures -- including a 97-92 decision at Boston on Friday. DeMarcus Cousins went 10 for 26 from the floor on Friday and finished with 28 points to end a string of four straight games scoring over 30.
The Knicks (10-9, 11-8 ATS) might be lamenting the free-agent signing of Joakim Noah. The former Chicago star received a four-year, $72 million dollar deal but thus far has been a major disappointment. Noah, who is sidelined with an ankle injury, is averaging four points and 8.1 rebounds in 15 games.
New York is 8-3 SU and ATS at home compared to Sacramento’s road mark of 3-7 SU and 5-5 ATS.
The Kings have won five of the last six series meetings and are 7-2 ATS in the last nine series meetings in New York. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight at home.
Sacramento is 4-1 to the UNDER against the Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division. New York is 17-5 in its last 22 games vs. the Pacific Division.
Jack Jones
Panthers vs. Seahawks
Play: Over 43½
I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair Sunday night. Most have expected defensive battles when these teams have gotten together recently, but that hasn’t been the case at all. In fact, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 48, 50 and 55 points. All three meetings have come since the 2015 playoffs, so they are pretty recent.
They combined for 48 points in that playoff game in 2015. They combined for 50 points in a 27-23 Carolina victory in Seattle last season. And they combined for 55 points in a 31-24 home victory for the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game last year. And both defenses were better in those three games than they are right now.
Injuries have decimated both of these defenses. The Panthers are without Luke Kuechly, their best player, and just gave up 35 points to the Raiders last week in their first game without him. They have one of the worst secondary’s in the NFL as this unit is young and inexperienced and has been torched all season.
The Seahawks have some serious injuries of their own on defense. Both Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas are questionable to play this week after missing last week’s game against the Bucs. Bennett is their best player along the defensive line, while Thomas is one of the most feared safety’s in the NFL.
This Carolina secondary is giving up 67.1% completions, 272 passing yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt this season. Russell Wilson will get right back on track in this one and have a big day through the air. Seattle hasn’t been as strong as normal in the secondary this year, allowing 62.8% completions and 235 yards per game. I think Cam Newton will have some success, too.
The Seahawks have been at their best at home offensively as they are putting up 26.4 points, 364 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Carolina still boasts an elite offense that is scoring 25.1 points per game on the season, including 27.2 points per game on the road this year. But their defense has surrendered 25.0 points per game overall and 31.0 points per game on the road.
Carolina is 15-6 to the OVER in all road games over the last three seasons. The Panthers are 6-0 OVER in road games off a loss over the last three years. Seattle is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 home games after scoring and allowing 14 points or fewer in its previous game. Carolina is 10-1 OVER vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt over the last two seasons. The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Seattle.
Ray Monohan
Giants vs. Steelers
Play: Giants +6
The Giants catch points on the road against the Steelers and they have some value here. New York is no pushover on either side of the ball. With playmakers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Eli Manning, the Giants offense can strike at any moment with the big play.
As for the defense, they are right up there with the tops in the league. The Giants are averaging just 19.4 points against on the season. Expect them to get plenty of pressure in the Steelers back field and force them into some difficult 3rd down situations, where the Giants really flourish.
Some trends to note. Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
New York has plenty of talent all around. They enter play red hot, winners of 6 in a row as well. Given the momentum they have here, they'll have their chances to steal this one outright here.
The points are the safe way to go.
Scott Rickenbach
Redskins vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 48½
This total has dropped from as high as a 50.5 to as low as a 48 as of early Sunday morning and this has opened up great value on the over. Washington has gone over in 9 of their 11 games this season and they come into this game with extra rest. The Redskins have had a few extra days off since the played at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and the Skins had over 500 yards of offense against the Cowboys. Their offense ranks as one of the best in the league this season but the Washington defense continues to be an issue and I am expecting big things from the Cardinals offense today as they return to Arizona after a dismal 19-point effort at Atlanta last week. We are getting some extra line value here because the Cardinals are 6-0 to the under in home games this season but I see that streak coming to an end. The Cards offense will respond against the subpar defense of the Redskins (ranked near bottom of the league) but Arizona's D will not be able to stop Kirk Cousins and Company as they are not only one of the hottest but also one of the overall best-performing offenses in the NFL with 426.7 yards per game. Also, the Cardinals are 5-0 to the over when they are at home and off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points. After giving up 38 at Atlanta last week, look for a shootout with Washington this week.
Mike Anthony
Eagles vs. Bengals
Play: Bengals -2
Cincinnati doesn't go half way- they always play full bore, and with Jeremy Hill on the offensive side of the ball - it's hard to disagree. If Cincinnati Head Coach Marvin Lewis can get this team clicking beautifully, it will happen again. On 3rd down, Philadelphia have been just ok - they have not found the right guys at the right time. And their WRs have struggled with getting open, and hanging onto balls, at times as the numbers indicate. Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Cincinnati wins this one on their home field.
Power Sports
San Francisco vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
I realize that Matt Barkley is againthe starter here for the Bears, but I do not understand this line move at all. San Francisco as a road favorite? No thanks. I have the 49ers rated 31st in the league in my own power rankings (ahead of only Cleveland). While Chicago is 30th, that's one spot higher and they should be favored.
With Barkley under center, the Bears nearly pulled off an improbable come from behind effort LW here at home vs. Tennessee. They fell behind early in the fourth quarter, 27-7, but two late TD's actually gave them a back door cover and they had a chance to steal the outright win. The final drive stalled inside the Titans' 10 yd line, making it four losses by six pts or less in the last seven weeks, Barkley actually threw for 300+ yards and Chicago outgained Tennessee 411-375. I like their offense's chances this week, going against a Niners' defense that has been putrid, giving up 36.4 PPG on the road.
The Bears' defense is only giving up 19.4 PPG at home, believe it or not. The 49ers, like the Bears, rallied late to make a game of it last week. It ended up being a 31-24 loss for SF at Miami as they remain winless on the road. Chicago almost has a homefield "disadvantage" in that they're 7-22 ATS L29 home games, but that is due to turnaround isn't it? Also, these two teams are a combined 0-6 SU and ATS the L2 seasons when favored, so the line move works AGAINST the Niners.
Jim Feist
Pacers at Clippers
Pick: Under
A pair of strong defensive teams clash. Indiana is a long way from home on a 7-3 run under the total, as well as 6-1 under when facing the Pacific division. The Under is 22-7 when the Pacers face a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Clippers are a powerhouse rebounding and defensive team for Doc Rivers, 21-7 under the total at home. And the Under is 34-16-2 in the Clippers last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Harry Bondi
Tampa Bay / San Diego Over 47.5
Playing the “over” when the Chargers are at home has been a big money-maker for us, so we’ll go to the well again here today. Not only are the Bolts 4-1 to the over this year on this field, but the games have averaged a whopping 57.6 points per game. What’s more, despite going under the total last week at Houston, San Diego is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games overall. This is also a game that pits two pass defenses that rank in the bottom third of the league in completion percentage and yards per game, so look for both offenses to air it out, which will lead to a longer game and more scoring opportunities.
David Banks
Carolina at Seattle
Pick: Over 44
The Panthers and Seahawks have played some memorable games recently. They have met three times in the last two seasons with two of those games in the postseason. You can go back to 2006 when the two teams met for the NFC title, a game won by the Seahawks. Carolina has actually won the last two meetings, including last year’s 31-24 win in an NFC divisional playoff game. The Panthers have not fared so well this season and are just 4-7 heading into Sunday night’s game in Seattle.
Carolina is coming off a 35-32 loss to Oakland, a game where the Panthers put up a valiant comeback effort only to fall short in the end. The Panthers have fallen short for a few reasons, one a defense that is not typical of Ron Rivera-coached Carolina teams and a subpar season from last year’s league MVP, QB Cam Newton.
Carolina gives up 25.5 points a game, 24th in the NFL and a far cry from last year’s 19.3 points per game, which was sixth in the league. The Panthers were also the No. 1 scoring team in the NFL last year. Carolina has scored over 40 points just once and that was against the hapless 49ers. The Panthers have scored over 30 points just three times, all losses. Carolina will have a hard time on both sides of the ball against Seattle. Plus, winning at CenturyLink Field is a monumental task.
Buster Sports
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -7
The Carolina Panthers go to Seattle to play the Seahawks and they are on their last legs if they are not done all ready for any type of playoff berth in the NFC. We like the Seahawks to cover the spread in this game. Last weeks 35-32 loss to the Raiders was devastating to the Panthers chances of making the playoffs and each game from here on out is a must win. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they are playing a Seattle club that is playing at home and CenturyLink Field is not a place you want to go to if you need a victory. The Seahawks lost to Tampa Bay last week 14-5 and looked terrible on offense. We see Pete Carroll coming up with a way better game plan for Sunday night as they are playing a club they know quite well. Injuries are going to play a big part in this game and the biggest might not even be to middle linebacker Luke Kuechly (concussion) who will probably be a game time decision. Both Carolina Centers have been put on IR as well. This spells disaster when the Carolina offense is facing a Seattle defense that is ranked 1st in points allowed per game and 7th in yards allowed. There is another little thing called revenge that takes place as well on Sunday night. Carolina has beat the Seahawks the last two games, including a 31-24 victory in last years playoffs. There will be nothing better for Seattle as to knock the Panthers out of the playoffs once and for all, especially on Sunday Night with the Nation watching. We believe that is exactly what they will do. The Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games which also backs our selection.