Marco D'Angelo
Bucs at Chargers
Play: Over 47.5
We are getting some line value with this total due to the fact that both teams are coming off of low scoring games last week. Tampa Bay and Seattle played a defensive game with a final score of 14-5. Seattle has one of the best defenses in the NFL and was able to shut down Tampa Bay. This week Tampa will face a San Diego defense that has given up 30 or more points 6 times this season. Don’t let last week’s 13 point defensive performance by San Diego fool you. The Chargers had 2 weeks to prepare as they were coming off their bye week while Houston was coming off a gut wrenching loss in Mexico. Houston had 6 days to prepare while San Diego had 14. The Chargers are the #3 scoring team in the NFL and will have success going against the 20th ranked defense. When Tampa Bay has the ball they will have success as the Charger defense is ranked 26th out of 32 teams in points allowed. Houston only scored 13 points last week but that was due to 4 TO’s killing drives. Brock Osweiler had another horrible game tossing 3 INT’s. So like I said at the beginning I’m not putting a lot of stock in last week’s low scoring game. Personally I see 53 or more points in this game and with the total at 47.5 this is just too much value to pass up.
Mike Rose
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3.5
Though they don’t play in the same division, the Dolphins and Ravens have collided on the gridiron each of the last three seasons and seven times dating back to 2005. Baltimore has held the upper hand in the rivalry winning six of the last eight meetings, but the Fins snapped a five game losing streak last year by pulling out the 15-13 win as 3 point home favorites. Baltimore got the cover and has beaten the closing line in each of the last six meetings.
This will be the Dolphins toughest defensive test in weeks. The last time Miami ran into a defense almost as nasty as the Ravens, it needed to score a pair of touchdowns in the closing minutes of the game to escape with a 14-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Ajayi is going to have his hands full running up against Terrell Suggs and company. Tannehill only threw for 86 yards in last year's tilt, so if Ajayi fails to get Miami’s offense into a rhythm, I doubt Tannehill will be able to pick up the slack.
The Dolphins are susceptible on the ground, so it’s possible this will be rookie Kenneth Dixon’s coming out party after seeing his reps increase each of the L/3 weeks. With Tucker’s automatic leg in my back pocket, I’ll lay the chalk and look for the home team to snap Miami’s win streak and continue its recent dominance of this rivalry.
Dwayne Bryant
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Play: Atlanta Falcons -5
The Chiefs are coming off a come-from-behind upset win over the Broncos in Denver, 30-27 in overtime. Kansas City is in a very difficult spot here. Coming off that huge divisional win, the Chiefs have an even bigger game on deck against the Raiders for the AFC West lead. Ask Dallas how difficult these "division sandwich spots" are, as they barely escaped Minnesota with a win in the same scenario on Thursday night.
The Chiefs have been winning in spite of themselves. They were outgained by a whopping 191 yards in Denver. The week prior, they lost at home to Tampa Bay as a TD favorite. KC was outgained by 85 yards and had to rally from 17 points back to win in Carolina the week before that. And they were outgained by a massive 218 yards when they escaped with a 19-14 home win over lowly Jacksonville before that.
The Falcons are off a big 38-19 win over the Cardinals. Atlanta is playing very well, especially offensively. Atlanta's weakness is pass defense, but the Chiefs lack the vertical passing attack to take advantage. The Falcons have a well-balanced, explosive offense that is tough to defend for teams like the Chiefs who are not familiar with them.
The Chiefs just seem to keep finding ways to win under head coach Andy Reid. KC is 19-4 SU in their last 23 games dating back to last season. The oddsmakers know that, yet they opened the Chiefs as 'dogs of more than a FG. Looks to me like they're trying to get bettors to grab KC. I'm not biting.
I expect Kansas City, off a big division win with a bigger division game on deck, to come out a little flat here. I
Oskeim Sports
Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -1
The injury-riddled Bengals enter one of their favorite months - December - where they are a profitable 12-4 ATS over the past few seasons. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton is 14-7-1 ATS during the month of December in his NFL career, including 9-2-1 ATS versus non-division opponents (7-0 ATS in the last seven chances).
In contrast, Philadelphia is a money-burning 5-11 ATS in its last sixteen December affairs and is coming off a blowout loss to the Packers on Monday night.
That defeat is significant in that the Eagles are just 1-9 ATS following a double-digit home loss and 1-5 ATS after playing under the Monday Night lights. Philadelphia is also 0-9 ATS since November 28, 2010 in road games following a home tilt, provided they are favored on the road (check point spread).
From a fundamental standpoint, Cincinnati is the better team from the line of scrimmage, grading out as 0.2 yards per play better than average (0.2 yards per play better than average offensively). The Eagles are 0.2 yards per play worse than average from the line of scrimmage (0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.1 yards per play better than average defensively).
The Eagles are 1-5 SU and ATS on the road where they are averaging a pedestrian 5.1 yards per play, and Carson Wentz will struggle to move the chains consistently against a Cincinnati defense that is limiting foes to just 17.2 points per game at home this season.
Let's also note that Philadelphia has dropped five straight road games both straight-up and against the Vegas number.
Wunderdog
Broncos at Jaguars
Pick: Under 40
Many pundits in August were touting this as the year of the Jaguars and projected this team into the playoffs. They are in the weakest division in the NFL and will carry a woeful 2-9 record into this contest. So what has gone wrong? The first place to look, and an area the Jags thought they had covered is at QB. Blake Bortles has now started 41 games and is 10-31, averaging just 19.8 points per game. That drops to 16.4 points per game vs. an above average defense, where his passer rating is an ugly 70.1. He has thrown 13 INTs on the season. The Jags defense has been very good allowing just 5.2 yards a play vs. teams that generate 5.7. Denver has offensive issues of their own, and now Trevor Siemian is out with a foot injury. They will have to rely on one of the best defenses in the NFL to do so. So in a nutshell, we have a Denver offense, with a back up quarterback, and a Jacksonville offense that struggles vs. even a pedestrian defense, but going against an elite one here.
Vegas Butcher
Teaser-6.5 Points
Seattle Seahawks -0.5 / New Orleans Saints +0.5
Seahawks off a loss and getting healthier on D, taking on a Panthers team that is missing a number of key defenders. Saints at home against the 32nd ranked pass-D is virtually a must play in a ‘teaser’.
Houston Texans +6
I have this one -4 GB so there’s value in this number. The Packers are coming off a short-week, Aaron Rodgers picked up a hammy injury, Green Bay has no run-game, and they only rank 12th offensively in the passing game. This is not a “scary” Green Bay offense from seasons past, and I think Houston’s D could have some success here. As long as Hopkins, Fuller, and Miller can make Osweiler look “good” somehow, Houston has a strong chance of keeping this one close.
New Orleans Saints -6
What happens when the 32nd ranked pass-D goes to New Orleans to take on a 5th ranked Saints pass-offense? Lots and lots of points scored by the home team of course. The Saints will get theirs here. The question is, will the Lions match them? Detroit does not have a lot of big-play ability. Stafford ranks only 18th with a 6.6 PY/A average. Lions’ best deep-threat, Marvin Jones, is playing at less than 100%. And Detroit has no run-game, which does not enable them to force the opposition to bring the safeties in. Basically, Detroit will need to sustain long drives in order to score points, and that’s hard to do on a consistent basis. Saints’ big-play ability and home field edge, are enough here for me to like this play at less than a TD.
Arizona Cardinals -2
Washington goes on the road to take on the 4th ranked Arizona defense. The Cardinals are 3rd against the pass, and that’s the biggest factor here as typically Cousins struggles against elite pass-defending units. Arizona is 0-3 in the last 3 on the road, but they are 3-2-1 at home, with the two losses coming against NE and the Rams, early in the year. I expect this team to play much better than they have the last two weeks. The biggest matchup advantage is Arizona’s run-game against Washington’s 32nd ranked run-D. David Johnson should have a field-day in this one. My model has this one at -3.1 ARZ, and in the off-season this line was -6.5 Cards. There’s value at the current number.
New York Giants +6
I have this one at PIT -4.2 so there’s a couple of points of value here. The biggest factor is that Giants rank 7th in pass-D and they’ve been the 4th best team in the league against opposition’s #1 WR. If they can at least slow down Antonio Brown, they should have a strong shot here. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s pass-D is ranked 30th against the opponents’ #1 WR. Odell Beckham Jr. should have a big day. Overall, both are fairly similar teams. I expect a close game.
Additional Breakdowns:
DEN @ JAX +3.5
With Semien out, Paxton Lynch will start for the Broncos. The kid is a rookie and starting on the road is never easy. But of course, there’s just not much to go on here. Jags rank 14th in pass-D and have allowed under 20 PPG at home. On the other side, you have one of the worst QB’s in the league (Bortles) going up against the #1 ranked pass-D. Jags will be without Hurns, Ivory, and Julius Thomas, stripping this offense of a number of playmakers. Expect two run-heavy, cautious approaches in this game. The total has really dropped in this one of course, but it’s tough to play. Bortles is extremely susceptible to pick-6’s and both teams feature bottom-5 special teams, which indicates that a long return or two could be very possible. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something ‘fluky’ happen in this game, which could pretty much be the deciding outcome. By the way, as much as I’d love to grab the Jags as a home favorite of over a FG, going up against a rookie QB, I keep being reminded how awesome this Denver D looked (especially in the first half) last week. With Talib and Wolfe back in the fold, this defense is as filthy as it gets. Bortles truly stands no chance. Lean: JAX +3.5
PHI @ CIN -1.5
The luster has worn off Carson Wentz, as the rookie is impossible to trust on the road. It doesn’t help that Philly is 1-5 ATS on the road. Of course Cincy is 2-8 ATS in all their games this season. They have one of the worst pass-protecting O-lines and that makes this one virtually unplayable for me. Philly has the 6th ranked pas-rush, the #2 ranked pass-D, and Bengals are without AJ Green. Lean: CIN -1.5
SF @ CHI +2.5
Holy cow, 49ers are a road favorite?!? This was my initial though as I was ready to fade them in this one. Then I realized there must be a reason for this line of course. Chicago is missing a ton of talent on defense: Trevathan, Freeman, Floyd, Amos, Hall. In addition, the offense is being led by Matt Barkley, who is awful. Last week he barely completed 50% of his passes for 5.8 PY/A. Of course Bears have Howard and he ‘should’ dominate against this league-worst San Fran run-D, but everyone knows that’s the obvious game plan. So I expect San Fran to stack the box and force Barkley to make plays. Chances of him doing enough are very small. Chances of me backing a horrific team like San Fran as a road favorite, are even smaller. Lean: CHI +2.5
LAR @ NE -13.5
West Coast team playing on the road in the 1 PM EST time. Rookie QB who looks completely overmatched. Rams’ best pass-rusher Quinn is out. Seems like this should be an easy blowout for the Pats. But they will be without Gronk, and their offense becomes a lot less efficient without him. In addition, Brady is nursing a knee injury, and even without Quinn, this Rams’ D line is pretty scary. And of course the biggest factor is that I have this one at -11 NE. No way would I recommend playing an over-valued line in this spot. And even though an under-valued double-digit underdog is tempting, I just can’t back Goff in such a difficult spot. Lean: LAR +13.5
MIA @ BAL -3.5
The ‘hook’ makes this one unplayable for me, as I would be all over the home team if it was a FG or lower. The #1 ranked run-D (and overall) going up against a strong rushing team like Miami, is typically advantageous for a home team. Throw in a mediocre QB like Tannehill, who is missing his top deep threat (Parker), and you have to love this matchup even more. Expecting Tannehill to make adjustments in a hostile road environment is typically futile, and I don’t see him carrying this offense here. Miami has won six in a row, but it gets harder and harder to maintain that kind of effort level week to week. Baltimore’s 30th ranked offense is pure garbage, and that prevents me from laying more than a FG in this one. Lean: BAL -3.5
BUF @ OAK -3
Buffalo’s 2nd ranked run-O will take on Oakland’s 27th ranked run-D. Of course the Raiders have a similar advantage on the other side as well: 5th ranked run-O vs 25th ranked run-D of the Bills. We’ll also see Buffalo’s #1 ranked pass-rush go up against Oakland’s #1 ranked O-line (in terms of pass-protection). My model has this one at OAK -2.5 so this line is properly set. Lean: BUF +3
TB @ SD -3.5
Here’s another game that is tough for me to decipher. At -3, I’m taking the Chargers. At 3.5 it’s a pass. I have this one at -4.5 SD. Both teams are playing well. Both are much better than everyone expected. And I do think we’ll see a close game. I don’t like the fact that Tampa is coming off such huge upsets of KC and SEA, and now must travel cross-country. This could very well be a let-down spot for them. Lean: SD -3.5
CAR @ SEA -7
The Seahawks are over-valued here as I have this one at -4.9 SEA. But the Panthers are without Keuchly, their best LB, without Addison, their best pass-rusher, and without Coleman, their solid starting safety. Seattle, on the other hand, is getting Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett back. Plus it seems they’re still upset about how last season ended between these two teams. Lean: SEA -7
Brad Wilton
Not sure why the Saints are laying this many points - even at home - to the Lions this Sunday afternoon?!?!
Detroit has won 3 straight, and 6 of their last 7 both straight up and against the spread, and they have defeated New Orleans the past 2 seasons, including a 35-27 win at the Superdome last December.
Yes, New Orleans has a little roll of their own going, as the Saints have won 5 of their last 8, but dumping the Rams last week after suffering back-to-back losses to Carolina and Denver tells me that New Orleans cannot be trusted to win this game by more than a field goal at most.
Keep in mind that the Lions like to play them close, as they have trailed in the 4th quarter in each of their 11 games played thus far, and somehow they have won 7 of those 11 games straight up.
The points are the play in this one.
Detroit to cover at New Orleans.
4* DETROIT
Eric Schroeder
Yes, the New Orleans Saints are making a statement in trying to become relevant in the NFC once again. But the Detroit Lions are already relevant, and in no way should be dismissed as such a big underdog.
Detroit leads the NFC North thanks to five victories by four or fewer points. The Lions are finding ways to win, including last week, when a late interception set up a winning field goal against Minnesota on Thanksgiving.
On the flipside, the Saints have been one of those teams that has suffered heartbreaking losses, and haven't been able to find ways to win games they should have.
Normally, it would be hard to give the nod to an opposing quarterback facing Drew Brees. But wow, Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing well, and is making throws this season, that a lot of quarterbacks can't.
Stafford has completed 67 percent of his passes for 2,883 yards and 19 TDs versus five interceptions. He has thrown one interception in his last seven games.
The Lions have won six of seven for the first time since 1995, when they won six of the last seven to earn a playoff berth for the fourth time in five years. This year the playoffs are within reach, and they will treat this as a must-win, since basically, it is.
Take the road pup.
2* LIONS
Bob Valentino
Let's take a look at my free winner for Sunday, as I love the home team in this AFC clash, and will lay the points with the Oakland Raiders over the Buffalo Bills, who are 0-8 in Oakland since 1966.
Oakland continues to surprise everyone this season, and its offense has sparked playoff talk while it leads the AFC West with a 9-2 mark.
Sure, Buffalo coach Rex Ryan is a master at blitzing schemes and knows how to disrupt backfields, but I don't see how the Bills come across the country and even hang close with this team.
The Raiders have the fifth-best offense, sparked by the league's No. 4 passing game. Once they get going at home, it's hard to slow this team down. Buffalo won't be able to keep up with the 32nd-ranked passing game.
Lay the low chalk with Oakland.
5* RAIDERS
Brett Atkins
Both the Bucs and the Bolts were involved in Unders last week. In fact, Tampa Bay enters with their last pair of games having held Under the total, but I feel the Over is the play today in San Diego, as I expect both offenses to get something going at the Q.
Tampa is still 4-2 Over the total their last 6 games, while San Diego has played 4 of their last 5, and 8 of 11 on the season Over the total. Included is a pair of Overs against teams from the NFC South (Atlanta and New Orleans).
I don't think the Buccaneers are going to be able to slow down Philip Rivers on his home field, so with the thought the Chargers are likely good for 28-30 points at home today, that means the Bucs will have to score the remaining balance, which I think they are capable of.
After a pair of Lows last week for the teams, look for them to revert back to the higher-scoring ways.
Tampa-San Diego Over the total.
4* TAMPA BAY-SAN DIEGO OVER
Brandon Powell
49ers -128
Colin Kaepernick has played very well since taking over for the 49ers and his play has steadily improved as well. I think that the Bears got their one good game out of Matt Barkley, I expect him to put up 14-20 points today. Both these teams are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball. Look for the 49ers to take this game by at least 1 touchdown. T
Bob Balfe
49ers -2
Matt Barkley probably had the best statistical game ever last week in his career. This Bears team also dropped a ton of balls against a weak Titans Defense. I am not saying the 49ers Defense is much better, but they will not let Barkley do what he did last weekend. Colin Kaepernick is a duel threat QB who has been playing very well. The Bears are really banged up at the linebacker level and the secondary is also banged up. The Bears will have a new coach next year and don’t have much to play for in the final few weeks. San Francisco should win this one behind an up tempo offensive performance.
Bruce Marshall
Panthers at Seahawks
Play: Panthers
As has become the fashion TY, Carolina stayed on the west coast after its game in Oakland, practicing at San Jose State. When the Panthers travel north to the Emerald City, they will meet a team that remembers a pair of costly, narrow losses to Carolina last season, one in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Panthers might still be missing MLB Luke Kuechly and/or C Ryan Kalil (check status of both). But last week's loss at Tampa Bay seemed to typify lots of 2016's Seahawk problems--OL issues (six sacks), run game inconsistency (RB Rawls only 38 YR), and DB injuries (S Earl Thomas, CB Shead inactive). Carolina (4-7) desperate, but still potent.
Bruce Marshall
Bills / Raiders Over 48
What to do with the Raiders, a streaking team (five straight wins) that is only 3-3 as a favorite and 1-4 vs. the spread at home TY? Last week, QB Derek Carr (22 TDs, only 5 ints.) dislocated the little finger on his throwing hand. But he just put on one of those fancy-schmancy, high-tech gloves, passed for a TD, plus the tying two-pointer, and then led the 12-play drive to the winning FG in the 35-32 win over Carolina. The Bills, with their slippery backfield of Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy, are 6-3 SU and vs. the spread their last 9 (4-1 as a dog in the stretch), and we all know that mark might be a little better had a few marginal calls gone their way in Seattle. Top wideout Sammy Watkins (3 for 80) returned from the injury list last week. Enough positives to take any points. Oakland 9-2 "over" in 2016.
Dr Bob
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals 5-year playoff streak will likely come to an abrupt end this year as the Bengals are no doubt not as good as they once were. However, the NFL is an ordinal league and the Bengals are simply a better football team than the Eagles. Dalton has regressed from last year’s career high in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and NYPP. Although based on his 6.7 NYPP he is still an above average passer and is piloting an offense that ranks 10th in the league. Offensively their predictive metrics show that they have produced at a level 4 points lower than their go-forward run rate offensive output as they are -4 in fumble differential and have simply not been able to convert redzone opportunities. The (5-6) Eagles are likely better than many would have predicted, as their early season win total was set at only 6.5 wins. However this team has considerably cooled off as they have been -4 in the turnover differential since their 3-0, +6 turnover differential start. Doug Pederson is running the same Kansas City style offense and Wentz is predictably posting Alex Smith-lite numbers, ranking 28th at 5.9 adjusted Net Yards Per Pass while leading an offense that ranks 25th overall in efficiency and 24th in explosiveness. Defensively, Philadelphia plays an aggressive style which causes some metrics to look better than they are as they hold opponents to low success rates but give up numerous big plays, ranking 3rd worst against the chunk run and 7th worst against the big passes. The advanced stats model sees value on the short home dog, Bengals (+1) is a *1-star Best Bet. Lean to OVER (42).
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
The Dolphins have won 6 games in a row, squeaking by NFL bottom-feeders of the Jets, Rams and Niners. Baltimore sits tied with the Steelers at the top of the AFC North, who they will play on Christmas day, as every game will be critical for the veteran team here on out. The Ravens are a true team of opposite extremes, as they have the third best defense in the NFL and the third worst offense. The advanced stats models leans to Ravens (-3.5) and the UNDER (40.5), though both are below model thresholds.
Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals
Two teams and quarterbacks with arrows going in the opposite directions. While the Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the NFL, allowing only 5.6 NYPP and 4.7 yards per play, the once-explosive Arians’ offense has been in the ruts all season long as Carson Palmer seems to be in the twilight of his career, averaging only 5.9 NYPP ranking 23rd in the NFL. Kirk ‘You-like-that’ Cousins, is having a tremendous season under his franchise-tag, ranking as the #4 ranked passer in the league, with a 68% completion percentage and 20 TDs to only 7 INTs. The advanced stats model sees small value on the team from DC so it is a lean to Washington (+2.5) and OVER (49), both below model thresholds.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Riverboat Ron seems to have used all his luck last year, as seemingly the high-leverage situations and bounces of the oblong ball seem to go against the Panthers this year in stark contrast to last year. The Panthers actually have a positive Game Control rating and a positive yards per play differential, yet have a losing record and sit at the bottom of the high-scoring NFC South at 4-7. The Panthers team is still capable of putting up points with anyone, as the biggest differences offensively from last year have been Cam’s TD rate has been cut in half from last year’s MVP 7.1% of all throws as TDs to now the lowest of his career of 3.8%, a team turnover differential that was +20 last year, currently through 11 games sits at -5. While both of those stats are descriptive of what has occurred so far this season, neither is predictive of what will happen going forward (for reference Tom Brady’s TD percentage the past 10 years has been as high as 8.7% and as low as 4.0% in full 16 game seasons). The Seahawks are the ultimate team of styles this year, as their 7 best defensive performances they have held teams to an average of 13 points, in the other 4 games they have allowed an average 25 points per game with not 1 opponent falling with a score in the typical range of 18-24 (8% chance of happening). The Carolina team averages 51 points per contest and have been able to turn many games into shootouts. The advanced stats model sees value on the road dog and Over, so Panthers (+7) and OVER (44.5) are Strong Opinions.