Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, February 5th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

PATRIOTS VS FALCONS
PLAY: PATRIOTS -3

I’ll get the math out of the way at the top. I made this price Patriots -4. So it’s not some kind of slam dunk on the numbers, at least not on mine.

But I think most everything else favors New England. I’m one who believes Super Bowl experience is a definite plus. Having previously dealt with the incredible hoopla surrounding this event is an advantage.

One wouldn’t think there’s a motivational edge either way, as it’s the biggest game on the planet, so everyone involved figures to be very focused. But no one is going to be able to convince me that there’s a little something extra on the New England side. The Patriots organization, from top to bottom, thinks they got screwed by Roger Goodell. Whether or not any of us agree or disagree with that assessment, what matters is that the Pats do, and there’s simply no doubt on that count.

There will be an endless supply of in depth analysis available on this game that will lend convincing support to either side. I’ll read, listen and watch. Mine is much briefer and to the point, or at least my point. I don’t think there has ever been a more important game personally to Tom Brady than this one, and I am absolutely not going against that guy in a game of this magnitude. Simplistic as that might be, that’s where I am on this game.

Sleepyj

Most Receiving Yards Julio Jones +175

Plenty of targets on both sides of the ball, but Julio Jones is one of the best after the catch WR's in the league....Brady likes to spread it around and I doubt that the Patriots look to Hogan or Edelman a ton in this game....Pats might look to run a little more with that Atlanta offense being so strong. Still the I get the best WR on the field and I'm getting +175 is worth a look here. Jones had a full two weeks now to get his toe back in shape...He was "banged up' last game and had 180 yards...He draws 8-10 targets a game and has had over 100+ in 8 games this year....It will take a long bomb from someone IMO to get past Julio yardage wise..I'll take that risk.

OC Dooley

Wisconsin-Green Bay / Detroit Over 165

This is in part a reaction to a pair of Friday results where both sides stayed "under" the total. Green Bay traveled to Oakland University and pulled off an underdog outright 80-72 victory which stayed under (160') even though Green Bay for the FIRST TIME all season had a pair of starters register "double doubles" in scoring and rebounding. Meanwhile on Friday the University of Detroit went to OVERTIME but a 73-69 game ended up staying "under" (151) as the Titans amazingly missed 20 different attempts from the free-throw line. The last time Green Bay faced Detroit in this "series" a HIGH SCORING 86-85 shootout stayed "under" (185) a grossly inflated spot, so we have more wiggle-room so to speak today. Green Bay has played SEVEN IN A ROW OVER ON THE ROAD when off an upset win as an underdog. In the past THREE YEARS when facing good teams (win percentage between 60-and-80) Detroit has gone 13-3 OVER with the offense averaging 83 points and the defense "allowing" on average 89 big ones

Bruce Marshall

Portland +8

Golden State has mostly had the upper hand vs. Portland the past couple of seasons but schedule dynamics might be tricky for the Warriors, who have gone flat at times this season and are off of a rousing national TV blowout win last night vs. the Clippers. This well-spaced homestand (in which Blazers don't have to worry about back-to-back games) continues for Portland as the Blazers look to solidify themselves in the West playoff picture.

Brad Wilton

The Hawks got tripped up Friday night at home by the Wizards, as Atlanta has not dropped 2 of their last 3 games straight up, with the lone win in that span coming at Chicago in a game the Bulls imploded down the stretch.

Coach Bud's team has failed their last pair at home against the spread, and are just 3-3 their last 6 home games versus the number.

New York has been making news lately with the possibility of a Carmelo Anthony trade, but the Knickerbockers have managed to win 2 of their last 3 both straight up and against the spread, and they sport winning numbers in their recent series meetings against the Hawks.

The Knicks have covered all 3 series meetings this year against the Hawks, and 5 in a row now dating back to last season. New York stands at 4-4 straight up the last 8 series meetings, and have gone 13-5 against the spread their last 18 games on Atlanta hardwood.

Look for the dominant series numbers to be the way to go once again this Sunday afternoon. Take New York plus the points.

2* NEW YORK

Jack Brayman

I'm going to play Oklahoma City in the NBA, plus the points at Cleveland against the struggling Cavaliers.

While everyone is waiting for Kyle Korver's transition into the Cavs' system, something Lebron James compared to oatmeal. The King things his defending champs have time, and this lull is no big deal.

But it could be with the Thunder in town, as they enter riding a three-game winning streak and following two days off.

That's mean's a real fresh Russell Westbrook, whose 23 triple-doubles this season are almost halfway to James' career total of 47. Westbrook is one of three players with at least 20 triple-doubles in a season.

Take OKC tonight, as it keeps things close.

2* THUNDER

Tony George

Indiana vs. Northwestern
Play: Indiana +7½

Northwestern getting a lot of respect here and I am not excited by a double digit win in their last game against free falling Nebraska without their second best player in that game. Road games in conference action are never easy no matter the venue this time of the season but I think Indiana competes here. , The Wildcats are off to their best start in conference action in quite some time, and they have ripped off 5 straight wins in the Big 10, first time since 1966 - WOW.

All that said Indian is licking their wounds off a very bad and embarrassing loss to Michigan, their worst in 7 years and you can be assured they will be dialed in here on Sunday. Indiana has a good backcourt with Blackmon and Johnson and I look for them to hang around in this one. The Hoosiers led the Big 10 in scoring, and when that scenario is in play, a team that scores 83 ppg can cover some big numbers, and I am willing to take the big points here.

John Martin

Rockets vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +3½

The Indiana Pacers are 17-6 at home this season and are showing great value as home dogs to the Houston Rockets here Sunday. The Rockets continue to be road favorites when they shouldn't be. They are just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games overall and are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 contests. The Rockets will now be playing their 5th straight road game here as they conclude a 5-game trip. Houston is 19-34 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 visits to Indiana.

Teddy Covers

Rockets vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +4

There are ample reasons to fade the exhausted, slumping Rockets right now, especially in this pointspread range as road chalk. Houston will be playing their 15th game in the last 25 days. They haven’t had back-2-back days off at any point during that span.

This is the final game of a grueling five game road trip. Key sharpshooter Eric Gordon is dealing with a bad back, no sure thing to suit up today or to be effective if he does. The Rockets defensive energy has been non-existent in recent games and they’ve lost six of their last ten in SU fashion, their worst stretch of the year, while covering only three pointspreads during that span. I’m not convinced this team is going to win at all, let alone winning by margin.

Houston head coach Mike D’Antonio following their tough win at Philly on Friday Night: "Defensively, we're soft sometimes, just soft. Soft on switches. We don't get up on people. We're soft in the moments that win the game. We have to get tougher.” That’s easier said than done, especially given their non-existent time on the practice floor together during this exhausting stretch of games.

While the Rockets are playing Game #15 in this 25 day span, the Pacers have only played ten contests during that same time frame. They’ve been at their best at home: 17-6 SU, demonstrating some legitimate ‘refuse-to-lose’ mentality in their come-from-behind win in OT against the Kings on Friday Night. Look for Indiana to clearly be the fresher of these two teams today, more than capable of pulling off the outright upset.

Ray Monohan

Dallas / San Antonio Over 197

The Mavericks and Spurs clash on Sunday and the Over here has value.

San Antonio is the main reasoning behind this Over as this team has so many playmakers. The Spurs have gone 29-17 to the Over this season and are putting in 107 points per game.

They play with pace and will certainly force the Mavericks to play with some speed here on Sunday to keep up.

Some trends to note. Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 13-3 in Spurs last 16 overall.

Look for higher scoring game here as the Mavericks simply have to play with a lot of speed and pace if they hope to stay in this one.

Dave Price

Wizards vs. Pelicans
Play: Pelicans +1½

After successfully covering the spread in 8 straight games coming in, the Washington Wizards are clearly starting to get too much respect from the books now. They now find themselves in the rare role of road favorite here against the New Orleans Pelicans. This is a Pelicans team that has beaten two of the best teams in the league at home in the Spurs and Cavaliers over their last 3 games. The Wizards are still just 7-14 on the road this season and shouldn't be favored on the highway here. New Orleans is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 games as a home underdog.

ASA

Purdue vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +7

Not a great spot for Purdue here. They just won @ Michigan State earlier in the week and they host a very solid Northwestern team on Wednesday. This is the Boilers 2nd straight road game and they’ve struggled a bit away from home in Big Ten play. Before their win over an MSU team that obviously isn’t the MSU of old, Purdue beat Ohio State by 1 and lost @ Iowa. The Boilers shoot an impressive 49% from the field on the year, yet on the road they hit only 42% of their shots. They score 7 fewer PPG away from home and allow nearly 10 more PPG to their opponents. The Huskers started the Big Ten with a 3-0 mark and have since lost 5 in a row. However, they’ve been competitive in all but one of those games losing by 1, 1, 6, 8, and 12 points. They have lost at home by more than 8 points only once this season and that was vs Creighton when the Blue Jays were a full strength and one of the top few teams in the country. This is a huge home game for Nebraska while a bit of a letdown spot for Purdue. The value is also with the Huskers here at +7.5 or +7 as this is the highest number for them at home this year. When they played Creighton they were +4 and at home vs Northwestern they were even. Because of their current losses we’re getting Nebraska at nearly + double digits at home.

Jack Jones

St. John's +6½

I like the value were are getting here with the St. John's Red Storm as 6.5-point home underdogs to the Xavier Musketeers Sunday. I look for this game to go down to the wire and for the Red Storm to have a legitimate shot of pulling the upset.

Xavier hasn't been playing well enough of late to warrant being a road favorite here. The Musketeers are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. They lost at Villanova by 25, at Butler by 5, at home to Creighton by 5 and at Cincinnati by 8 during this stretch. Their lone win came at home over Georgetown by 11.

St. John's is playing much better of late. The Red Storm have won two of their last three, including a 91-86 win at Providence as 7-point dogs last time out. And they've had three days off since last playing on Wednesday, while the Musketeers have had only two days off since their grueling loss to rival Cincinnati on Thursday.

The Red Storm will also be playing with revenge in mind after losing 82-97 at Xavier on January 7th. The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Red Storm are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. Xavier is 3-11 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons.

Mike Anthony

South Florida vs. Cincinnati
Play: South Florida +25

Cincinnati is coming off a huge 86-78 win at home against heated rival Xavier and it’ll be interesting to see how the Bearcats refocus for this one coming off the emotion victory. Look for a bit of a letdown. While I fully expect them to win this game, I dont see them covering this HUGE number. This has trap game written all over it for the Bearcats, but losing to the Bulls doesn’t seem likely, even though the game could be closer than expected. Cincinnati has been the top performers in the AAC standing 18-2 overall and 7-0 in conference. The Bearcats are one of the best defensive teams in the nation ranking 14th in the country in points allowed, but this group can also light up the scoreboard standing 86th in scoring average. South Florida is highly likely to come up short for their 9th straight time in conference this season, but Vegas is spotting the Bulls a tremendous amount of points to give them the shot at the cover. Even though we like Cincinnati to get the win, this is too many points to pass up on taking the Bulls as a solid value play.