Frank Jordan
AFC / NFC Over 78.5
This game is a glorified 7 on 7 practice so the offense will be a flowing and the last few years with a draft and such the scoring has been a little lower on average, but the last three times in was AFC vs. NFC which it has gone back to this year the scoring each year has been over 95 points. Two of the top touchdown passers and three of the top yardage quarterbacks are playing in this game. Three of the top five yardage receivers and two of the top receiving touchdown players are in this game. Three of the top five rushers are in this game. Look for a ton of yards and points in this game as the score is 45-38 which is 83 points and over the total.
Brandon Shively
Philadelphia vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago
There are times in the sports betting market that are ‘buy low’ and that is exactly what the Chicago Bulls are today. They are a mid priced home favorite against a 76ers team that the public is backing. (Yes, I just said “that the public is backing”.
The Bulls have lost their last 2 home games. Friday Night, the Bulls only scored 35 points in the 2nd half against the Miami Heat. The Bulls had more turnovers than assist and shot under 42% from the floor. I mean, that is ridiculous to fold like a tent in the 2nd half, coming just two nights after they gave up 41 points in the 4th quarter to the Hawks and lost that game.
So, Chicago has lost their last two home games. Jimmy Butler and D. Wade are going to ignite this team I have to expect. Butler does it every time they lost a few games at home or a losing streak to silence the critics. Well, the Bulls will face the 76ers, who have a very over-achieving month of January. Just about the same time that the public decides to join the party, it’s already too late. The oddsmaker has now adjusted for Philly and in this case, a possible over adjustment as I had this one at -8.
The last time Philly beat Chicago? I know it hasn’t been the last 10 meetings because the Bulls have won ALL of those and 8 of them by more points than what today’s spread is.
The 76ers are coming in off a hard fought loss vs the Rockets. Philly actually shot over 50% from the floor and scored 118 points and still lost. It’s a bad spot for this 76er team as they will be facing a Bulls team that should be as motivated as one could get to give their fans a better showing in Chicago.
Vegas Synergy
Purdue vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +7.5
Sunday afternoon college basketball from the Big 10 will not compete with the National Football League on this final Sunday in January. The Boilermakers take a short trip west to the Cornhusker state to square off against league foe Nebraska. The game is schedule to tip at 4:30 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln. The 17-4 Purdue Boilermakers figure to get a test from the 9-11 Nebraska Cornhuskers today in the capital city.
Caleb Swanigan is having a magical sophomore campaign for Purdue and he leads the 20th-ranked Boilermakers in their attempt to win their fourth straight game. Additionally, a win by Purdue today moves their conference mark to a solid 7-2 in Big Ten play. While Swanigan has been the focal point of the Purdue offense the squad has a number of capable scorers. Five Boilermakers score at least 9.6 points per game and the Purdue offense leads the league in 3-point field goal percentage and points per game (82.8 ).
The Huskers are scuffling as of late. Nebraska’s leading scorer, Tai Webster, is the team’s lone player to rank in the top 10 in scoring (18.3 points, third) and assists (3.9, eighth) in the league. Second-leading scorer Glynn Watson Jr. (14.6 points) has fallen off his early season contributions and the result has seen the Cornhuskers lose five straight games dating back to the first week of January when they defeated the Iowa Hawkeyes in overtime right here at Pinnacle Bank Arena
This fits the description of a trap game for Purdue. The Boilermakers face a team desperate to present 40 minutes of solid basketball to their home base. The Boilermakers have three difficult games in front of them (Northwester, at Maryland and Indiana) and should be expected to show themselves today as a team more interested in not losing than pushing the minutes of their starters.
David Banks
Stanford @ California
Pick: Stanford +7.5
The Stanford Cardinal, winners of three straight before their loss to Oregon on Saturday, will face a very good Cal squad on Sunday night. Stanford’s schedule has been somewhat of a nightmare. Prior to their three-game win streak were consecutive defeats to No. 7 Arizona, USC (17-4), and No. 8 UCLA. Now, they face a Bears team that is 14-6 overall and its four conference losses were all to ranked teams.
If Cal could pull off a few wins over the Pac-12’s elite, the Bears could be a dangerous NCAA tournament team. As of now, they have beaten the teams they should. They have lost to USC, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon in Pac-12 play. Cal has one of the best big men in all of college basketball. Sophomore Ivan Rabb is a 6-11 sophomore who elected to stay in school instead of entering last year’s NBA draft. Rabb is averaging 15.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game, both team highs.
Rabb isn’t the only talented Cal player either. Jabari Bird (13.9) and Charlie Moore (14.4) can both score and the Bears are huge up front with Rabb and 7-foot center Kingsley Okoroh. The Cardinal only score 68.6 points per game, 278th in the nation. Reid Travis, a 6-8 junior, leads the team in scoring (16.6 ppg) and rebounding (8.9 rpg). Dorian Pickins (14.8 ) is the only other Stanford player scoring in double figures. Michael Humphrey, a 6-9 junior averaging 9.3 points and 5.7 rebounds, will be tasked with slowing down the Bears frontcourt.
DAVE COKIN
LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME BY EITHER TEAM UNDER 16.5 +100
This is a pretty simple call in terms of analysis. I think this is going to be a pretty close game, and I don't see either team pulling away to a huge lead. This prop also allows for live wagering opportunities as the game progresses. I'm not much of a props guy as, to be honest, I don't really have the desire to do the in depth research necessary to find that might be the best value positions (I'd rather spend the time working the college basketball matchups, and for me, that's fairly time consuming). So I decided to go with something I think lines up with how the game unfolds, while also offering me buy out potential if needed.
King Creole
Higher Scoring Half - Second Half
We passed on this one in each of the last two years, and it's good thing we did as the First Half produced more points in Super Bowls 49 and Super Bowl 50. Despite those results, this prop has still gone 10-4-1 (71%) in the last 15 Super Bowls. Average combined points in the First Half has been 21.4... while the average in the Second half has been 26.1. Sharp OU players are already aware that Quarter #1 in the BIG GAME has not been very high-scoring... and Quarter #4 has been the highest-scoring quarter. So after a 2-year hiatus, I'm climbing back aboard this prop.
Greg Shaker
Devonta Freeman Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
This guy is going to be a large Key in the Falcons attack on Sunday. He can catch the ball and he can be very explosive after he does. It's conceivable that he could accomplish this OVER on just one catch (Not Likely) but he will get more than one shot at doing so since we already know that Ryan is going to continue to attack through the air often with Short Passes.
OC Dooley
SIU-Edwardsville / Belmont Under 145.5
At most offshore locations this total opened at 143 and has since risen a full 2-and-a-half points giving us "market value". The total has spiked due to host Belmont having an offense that often goes the "three point" long range route. However with their current head coach and facing an opponent who on average hits at least 8 different "three pointers" per game from behind the arc, SIU-Edwardsville has gone 11-3 UNDER the total. In that situation for the entire 2016/2017 campaign to date Edwardsville is UNDEFEATED for the totals player with ALL SEVEN GAMES GOING UNDER. So far this campaign when the posted total has been in the 140's, Edwardsville has played 7 of 8 UNDER the number
Dave Essler
Atlanta/New England Under 4.5 sacks (-160)
I've seen under "4" at -125. We know he throws the ball away - but when I looked for arguments' sake, since 2004 I think he was sacked five times in one game twice. Don't hold me to that, but it's "K" for close, and I'd have bet it regardless of the history. I'm sure Freeney would like to say something about that, and did when he was with the Colts. That was then and this is now.
Vegas Butcher
Offense scores all TD’s -210
There’s only about a 12-13% chance of a defensive/ST score in a given NFL game. That translates to around +600 odds. New England’s D/ST had zero such TD’s in the regular season (1 in the post-season against the worst coverage team in the league – HOU), while ATL actually had 5 of those. Still, it’s hard to see either defense generating much consistent pressure to lead the offense to such a huge mistake. In addition, New England has superb coverage units on ST, and while Atlanta’s aren’t as good, the Pats don’t really have any dynamic returners capable of being consistent threats in the return game (Dion Lewis almost died on his return against Houston). This is one of those Super Bowl props where the general public will throw some change on the ‘contrarian’ option (+175 currently: TD not scored by offense), not realizing that the favorite is truly vastly under-valued in this one.
Vegas Butcher
Patriots / Falcons 1st Half Under 29
My model has the total at 52, so there's a lot of value on the UNDER for the whole game. But, 2nd halves tend to be higher scoring in the playoffs, especially in Super Bowls. There's no 'tomorrow', so of course teams do anything possible to outscore the opponent, often resulting in inflated scores in the final two quarters. While teams tend to be more aggressive in second-halves, they are a little more conservative early on. If a team is running 'hurry-up' in the second half, they could very well be operating at their normal speed earlier in the game. In any case, the current line of 58.5 indicates about 29.25 points per half. My model indicates about 26. That's over a FG of pure 'value' for the 1st half. Even with two high-scoring teams, a lot has to go 'right' for this many points to be scored in the first half. I'll grab the value here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta +130 over New England
The NFL is difficult because the lines are extremely tight and in-game variance is in play so often. After winning in eight of our first 10 years of documented plays, we are about to be in the red for the third straight year with this year being our worst yet in terms of units lost. In our defense, Vegas also endured a horrible NFL season, as the public won 61% of its wagers this season, which is unbelievable. Favorites of 6½ or more went 45-25-1 against the spread this season, which is simply astonishing. As a contrarian better for the most part, when favorites are hitting at a high clip, we are not going to get to the front but it’s not going to prevent us from sticking to our guns and going after the value.
Bill Belichick is in a class by himself while Tom Brady is one of the more intelligent QB’s to ever play this game. Brady’s football IQ might even be higher than his overall IQ and together with Belichick; the pair have put together Hall of Fame numbers than may never be matched again. Since 2000, Belichick has led the Patriots to 14 AFC East division titles and 11 appearances in the AFC Championship Game. Since then, he has coached the Patriots to seven Super Bowl appearances. His teams won Super Bowls XXXVI, XXXVIII, XXXIX, and XLIX while losing Super Bowls XLII and XLVI. Belichick's appearance in the upcoming Super Bowl will break the tie of six Super Bowls as a head coach that is presently shared with Don Shula, as well as being a record 10th participation in a Super Bowl in any capacity which will overtake the mark of nine that he shares with Dan Reeves. Furthermore, this is the Patriots' ninth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history which is the most of any team. He is also the only head coach in NFL history to win three Super Bowl championships in a four-year span.
The Patriots went 5–11 in the 2000 regular season in Belichick’s first year and missed the playoffs. To date, this is Belichick's only losing season with the Patriots, and also the only year in which Tom Brady did not start at quarterback in any regular season games. In Brady's 15 seasons as a starter, the Patriots have earned seven trips to the Super Bowl, the most for any quarterback in history, winning four titles. Brady has been awarded three Super Bowl MVP’s and two league MVP awards has been selected to 12 Pro Bowls and has led his team to more division titles (14) than any other quarterback in NFL history. As of the end of the 2016 season, Brady is fourth all-time in career passing yards, fourth in career touchdown passes, and third in career passer rating. His career postseason record is 24–9. He has won more playoff games than any other quarterback, and appeared in more playoff games than any player at any position. His 207 combined regular season and postseason wins are also the most of any quarterback in NFL history. Yes indeed, we can understand why someone would want to get behind the Patriots on Sunday against a QB and coach that will both make their first Super Bowl appearances.
Matt Ryan is 3-4 in his career in the playoffs. Atlanta’s head coach, Mike Quinn is in his second year after missing the playoffs last year. Atlanta will now make its second Super Bowl appearance in their 51-year history with their last appearance occurring way back in 1998, where they would lose to the Broncos, 34-19. Coaching, experience, pedigree and familiarity absolutely favors the Patriots and many people learned in last year’s Super Bowl between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton that you should not bet against those things. Unfortunately for the Patriots, all those things do not play a single down of football and Matt Ryan is not Cam Newton.
There are two weeks between the Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl and so it is really easy for those that are doing this for the first time to lose focus and pay more attention to the festivities around them than the actual task at hand. First time players want to be part of the fun, as it’s a once in a lifetime opportunity and they don’t want to “miss out”. For the most part, they want to hang out with friends and family and go for dinners and drinks and stay out late as opposed to practicing hard, studying harder and then returning to their hotel room early for a good night’s sleep. The team that understands that this is not a vacation and treats it as such will have a significant edge over the opposition. Carolina paid the price last year and the Falcons addressed it this year. This is a completely focused underdog folks and they’re damn good too.
There’s a reason that Falcons QB is nicknamed “Matty Ice” and it’s not because he’s always smiling. The Falcons put away the Seahawks early and swiftly and did a worse number on the Packers the following week in their two playoff games thus far with Matt Ryan carving up both defenses. Green Bay’s defense was carved up plenty of other times this season but Seattle’s was not and Ryan made them look weak. New England defeated one of the worst playoff teams in history when they got by Houston in its first playoff game this season. Houston gave the Patriots a real scare and if it had an adequate QB, an upset likely would have occurred. The final score does not reflect the performance, as New England looked to be in trouble. New England would subsequently go on to beat Pittsburgh handily but Le'Veon Bell was injured early, which took away a ton of stuff that the Steelers planned on doing and Mike Tomlin did not have a plan B in place. While we take nothing away from the Patriots, let’s not ignore that Bell was injured early and that Ben Roethisberger was banged up and a fraction of his former self practically the entire year. The Falcons meanwhile, made the hottest QB in the game, Aaron Rodgers look average, they made Russell Wilson look bad and they made the Seahawks defense look weak too. To get here, one must give the Falcons greater accolades.
Prior to their first playoff game this year, the Patriots last played a playoff team way back 11 weeks ago in Week 10 when they lost at home to Seahawks on a Monday night. The only other playoff team they played this season was Pittsburgh back in Week 7. Meanwhile, the Falcons played four playoff teams and went 2-2 but they could have easily went 4-0, as they lost by one and two points respectively and the 29-28 loss to the Chiefs was as bizarre as it gets. The point is that the Falcons navigated through a much tougher schedule than the Patriots and if it means anything at all, it was a rare week when the Falcons didn’t put up 35 points or more.
In terms of personnel on the field, Tom Brady is 40 years old while Matt Ryan is in his prime. The Patriots have to deal with a great passing game and a great running game and cannot focus only on Julio Jones (ala Antonio Brown) because Ryan has 12 other receivers he can go to at any time. That said, Belichick will absolutely have to pay real close attention to Jones and has to be in fear of Jones’ height and speed. Belichick has dealt with this before and his strategy when facing a great balanced offense has always been to try and take away one or the other. Frankly, we’re not sure which one he’ll try and take away and chances are he won’t be successful anyway. New England’s defense has been described as “bend but doesn’t break”, which means what? That’s a polite way of saying a team gives up a ton of yards but the opposition usually doesn’t punch it in. Matt Ryan will punch it in.
Every story you read about this game will pound into your head about how weak the Falcons defense has been this season. The Falcons allowed an average of 25.4 points per game on the season, 27th in the league. If they win, that would represent the most points per game allowed by any Super Bowl champion. To that, all we can say is that we hope the Patriots score 25 points because if Atlanta holds’ them to 25, we’ll cash our ticket. The media loves to blow things out of proportion but that “weak defense” may not be as weak as advertised. They held Aaron Rodgers down and did the same to the Seahawks. The Falcons defense might be peaking at precisely the right time and they are 100% quicker than New England’s defense. They swarm the ball as soon as it’s caught and they can also get to Brady with their quickness and one great pass rusher in Vic Beasley. Defenses this young aren’t supposed to end their season in the Super Bowl. The Falcons start four rookies, if you count slot cornerback Brian Poole and his nine starts. They start four second-year players, including NFL sack leader Vic Beasley. The Falcons’ defense got better as the season went on and that’s an overlooked reason why they’re in the Super Bowl. New England’s defense is “meh”.
The stories this week are all about the Patriots. Yeah, we all know they’re dying to run it up, shout to the sky and conquer their arch-rival so embarrassingly that reputations will be ruined and history will be rewritten. It’s also Brady vs. Goodell - one of the greatest players in NFL history going for his record-tying fifth Super Bowl title in a season he began under Goodell-ordered suspension. For the Patriots, this is about revenge, it’s about justifying an entire era of dominance, it’s about the frustrations of the long legal slog Brady went through (and ultimately lost) trying to deny Goodell’s right to suspend him for the “Deflategate” scandal and it’s all channeled into this upcoming football game. All the stories, hype and history could influence anyone into taking the Patriots here and we have to admit, we almost got caught up in it too. However, after looking at everything, we trust the wrong side is favored based on performance and results. If you took every single player on Atlanta and put them in a Patriots’ uniform and vice versa, we can almost assure that group would be favored by six points or thereabouts. Atlanta is the better team taking back a price or points and they actually might benefit a little from all the attention that surrounds the relationship between the Patriots and the NFL commissioner. The media wants to talk to Bill Belichick or Tom Brady while the Falcons are the forgotten team. By Sunday night, nobody will be forgetting about the Falcons anymore. Atlanta gets the outright call but we're still going to split this wager up into two.
Our wagers:
1.5 units Atlanta +135
1.5 units Atlanta +3
3G-Sports
Patriots vs. Falcons
Play: Under 59
Both of these teams had 34 sacks during the regular season, but Brady and the Pats like to throw short quick passes in which the Falcons wont have time to put pressure on Brady. Usually when he feels pressure he just throws the ball way. I expect the Pats defense to get more sacks in the game.
DAVE COKIN
LARGEST LEAD (either team): UNDER 16.5 +100
DION LEWIS RECEIEVING YARDS: OVER 24.5 -110
DION LEWIS LONGEST RECEPTION: OVER 12.5 +100
DION LEWIS TOTAL RECEPTIONS: OVER 2.5 -120
Obviously, I think Dion Lewis will be featured to at least some extent by the Patriots. He’s a running back with big play capabilities and I’m expecting the Patriots to try and get him some looks through the air to capitalize on his open field talents. So I decided to play three of the Lewis props the same way.
As for the Under 16.5 largest lead option, I expect this to be a highly competitive game and I just don’t anticipate a blowout. But by playing this prop Under, I can always live bet my way out of it if things appear to getting even mildly out of hand. Or, I can try to add on with some in-game options if things are playing out the way I expect. I think this is potentially a player-friendly prop for anyone who has access to live betting, and that’s certainly the case for me.
Raphael Esparza
Peyton Manning Commercial Appearances Over 1.5
With Peyton Manning having commercials with DirecTV and Papa Johns, just those two companies alone should push this total over. Throw in the fact that his brother Eli is not playing in the Super Bowl, so maybe we will see a commercial with them both in it. Totally shocked that this total was not a solid 2, so getting 1.5 commercials at -175 I believe is a steal and wouldn't shock me to see this number climb to -200 or higher. My prediction is that we will see 3 commercials with Peyton Manning.