Allen Eastman
Matt Ryan Total Rushing Yards Over 7.5 (-120)
Over the last three years Matt Ryan has scrambled an average of over two times per game. He is a big, athletic quarterback that is capable of getting out and picking up a first down on his own. There have been nine times this season that Ryan has rushed for eight or more yards. Three of the other times that he didn't make it to that mark are because he didn't run at all. But I think against a powerful New England defense the Patriots are going to force Ryan to take off a couple times. Ryan has three rushing attempts in each of his playoff games and has been getting out of the pocket to make plays. I think he will have two runs in the Super Bowl, and he will get over this low threshold.
Steve Merril
Will there be 3 straight scores from one team? YES -210
This prop has a strong history of cashing in the Super Bowl. In fact, a team has scored 3 straight times in 35 of the 50 Super Bowls (70%), including six of the last eight. It did not happen last year, but that was a low scoring game between two of the best defenses in the league (Broncos/Panthers). A complete opposite situation this year with two explosive offenses and the highest Over/Under total in Super Bowl history.
Brad Powers
Will the Patriots score a TD in the first quarter? NO +155
In their six Super Bowl appearances in the Belichick/Brady era, the Patriots have COMBINED to score EXACTLY ZERO POINTS in the first quarter of the Super Bowl! While 6 games in a normal sample size is quite small, 6 games for a Super Bowl team trend is quite noteworthy. Factor in Atlanta's offense being able to chew up the clock (Falcons have scored a TD on their first drive in 8 straight games) and the average total score in the first quarter of the Super Bowl in the last 15 years is only 6.8 points, I think you have a solid value bet here.
Rocketman
How Many Different Atlanta Falcons to Score points? OVER 3.5 -135
This prop includes the kicker, so only 3 other Atlanta Falcons players have to score. I believe this will be a high scoring game. Atlanta is the #1 scoring team in the league and they are hitting on all cylinders right now. I'm seeing some OVER 4 +105's out there too. Try to get the OVER 3 1/2 and lay a little extra juice.
Andy Iskoe
First Pass by Matt Ryan & Tom Brady Will be INCOMPLETE (Ryan priced at + 200; Brady priced at + 210)
This is one of my annual "tandem" props that looks for one of the two quarterbacks to be off the mark in his first passing attempt.
Although both have had fine regular seasons and post seasons, that does not necessarily mean they will be on target in their first Super Bowl pass. Nerves, timing and defensive recognition/preparation/pressure are just some of the factors that could prevent success.
And I am content to cash one and lose one of the two plays.
From more of a mathematical perspective, the likelihood of two independent events, each with a 70% chance of success (i.e. QB completion percentage), BOTH occurring is just 49%, (70% times 70%) meaning that there is a 51 % chance that at least one of the passes is incomplete. The chance for BOTH to be complete would be 30% times 30%, or 9%. The chance of one completion and one incompletion, again on a pure mathematical basis, is 42%. During the regular season Ryan completed 69.9% of his 534 pass attempts whereas Brady completed 67.4% of his 432 pass attempts. Using those percentages would put the pure mathematical percentage for both passes to be complete at 47.1%, less than 50%, making a "plus/plus" prop supportable for play.
Alex Smith
Luke Bryan National Anthem Under 2:16
Country Star Luke Bryan will sing "The Star-Spangled Banner" for the third time at an official sporting event and fourth time overall inside a sports venue. He sang in 2008 before the Titans/Browns game on a cold December day with lots of reverb, clocking in at 1:43. Then he opened up the 2012 MLB All-Star Game in Kansas City with a rendition that went exactly two minutes, and drew a bit of criticism, as he had the lyrics written on his hand to avoid missing any words. Bryan was the first person to ever sing the anthem in US Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Vikings (and ironically the venue for next year's Super Bowl) to open his concert back on August 20, in a very classic, slow tempo that registered at 2:29. We've seen the last 10 anthems clock in at an average of 1:58, and the last male singer to perform was 10 years ago, when Billy Joel sang at Super Bowl 41 in Miami in 90 seconds. While we've seen many female vocalists draw out the anthem with late vibrato riffs, I expect more of a straightforward approach from the Georgia native. Play this one under.
Teddy Covers
Will Either Team Convert a Fourth Down? Yes -200
Somebody is going to be behind in the fourth quarter of this game. Somebody is going to be facing a fourth an inches in the red zone. Both teams went for it on fourth downs more than the average squad (especially the average playoff teams, who weren’t trailing in the fourth quarter all season), and both team were in the Top 10 in conversion percentage. The key here is that I trust BOTH of these offenses to have a well above average chance to convert on any fourth down conversion tries.
Ian Cameron
Number of Atlanta Falcons With A Rush Attempt: Over 3.5 -135
The Atlanta Falcons had four different players with a rush attempt in each of their two playoff games and I think we will see that trend continue on Sunday. Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and Matt Ryan (who is athletic enough to make plays and scored a rushing TD against Green Bay) are likely candidates to carry the ball at least once and I think there will be a fourth player to get an attempt. Receivers Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel are absolutely candidates to carry the ball on an end-around or double reverse type play. And trick plays certainly can't be ruled out of the equation especially with a creative offensive mind like Kyle Shanahan at the controls of the offense. Atlanta has a recent track record of 4+ players carrying the ball and it’s worth riding again on Sunday.
Scott Spreitzer
Will one team score 3 consecutive times: Yes (-120)
One quick piece of advice when betting Super Bowl props: Make sure the props you play are winnable bets no matter which team is winning or goes on to win the game. Never get caught-up in betting props based solely on which side you believe is going to win. Doing so can add up to big losses if your side selection is incorrect. The following prop has seen winning tickets cashed by both winning and losing sides in Super Bowl action. A Super Bowl side has scored at least three straight times in six of the last eight Super Bowls and seven of the last 10. We've seen momentum as a major player in the championship game and expect more of the same in this matchup.
Either one of these teams is fully capable of an offensive outburst, and we are playing YES in this particular prop.
Chris Jordan
My free play for the big game, as I like one prop bet - and that's it. You'll see this freebie available tomorrow, too, as I'm not playing anything but the side in this game, and this prop bet.
The over in Julian Edelman's receiving yards is enticing to me, as Tom Brady's favorite target has fone over 100 yards total in four of his last five playoff games, dating back to Super Bowl XLIX, where he tallied 109 against that stingy Seattle defense.
Edelman has been brilliant during a career season, not to mention a stellar postseason. Now he gets to carve up an inexperienced secondary while he plays in his third career Super Bowl. With the total being the highest in Super Bowl history, this high-scoring contest has to be highlighted by big-game players - and Edelman is one of them.
The Falcons will have a tough time containing Brady's main guy, as 100 yards will be an attainable goal.
3* Edelman Receiving Yards Over
Eric Schroeder
The price may be hefty, but yes, I'm playing a prop for Sunday's big game that asks the question: will New England running back LeGarrette Blount score a touchdown?
While I know the Atlanta Falcons' run defense held Thomas Rawls and Ty Montgomery to a bleak 51 combined rushing yards in the divisional round and conference championship, I'm convinced that stop unit wasn't necessarily tested like it will be by Blount.
Trust me, Seattle's offensive line is horrendous, while Green Bay relied on its passing game - not the rush attack. In this game, expect to see the Patriots use plenty of balance, as they're going to run the ball. And they're going to run the ball well.
And the thing about Blount is he is a bruising running back with speed. He somewhat reminds me of Marshawn Lynch, in that when he gets in open field, he is like a runaway bowling ball. While the Falcons are fast on defense with agile defenders such as Vic Beasley and Deion Jones, they're also too undersized to stop a 250-pound semi-truck like Blount.
When the Pats get close enough, Blount will pile drive into the end zone.
2* YES Blount TD
Brad Wilton
Biggest total ever in the 51 Super Bowls played to date, and it's awfully hard to argue with the price the linesmakers have established for the Lombardi Trophy here on Sunday at NRG Stadium.
I mean, Atlanta comes into this one of back-to-back playoff Overs at home against both Seattle and Green Bay, while New England played Over in the AFC Championship Game against Pittsburgh 2 weeks ago.
It would be very easy to not bat an eye and play the Over today, but after a little research I think that would be a big mistake. The Under is the play here in Super Bowl LI, and let me tell you why...After 3 straight Super Sunday Overs, last year we saw the Under between Denver and Carolina bank. Super Bowls tend to have a totally different rhythm than the playoff games that lead up to the last game of the season. The timeouts are longer, half-time is longer, and overall the pace of this game tends to be a little slower making for quick-strike teams having a tougher time getting on an extended roll.
Looking back on past Super Bowl totals, you will find that each of the last 4 games that had a total of 50 points or higher have ALL held Under - #46 which featured the Patriots and Giants wound up with 38 points in a game that saw 54 as the closing price, #44 between the Saints and Colts saw 48 points with a total of 56 1/2 points, #42 again between the Pats and Giants saw just 31 points with a total of 54 1/2 points, and #36 between the Patriots and Rams saw 37 combined points with a total of 53 1/2 points.
In fact, the Under when the total stands at 50 or higher is 5-0-1 the last 6 Super Bowls dating back to 1996.
I have to believe that New England is going to try and keep things on the ground if they can in order to keep the ball out of Matt Ryan's hands, as Ryan has multiple weapons at his disposal that are all capable of hitting the "home run". With a moving clock, there is usually less points being scored, and while I am quite sure this will not be a 10-7 final, I also feel quite confident that this highest total EVER is just a little too much for the teams to climb Over come the final gun.
Play New England and Atlanta to hold just Under the total in Super Bowl LI.
2* NEW ENGLAND-ATLANTA UNDER
Jim Feist
Clippers vs. Celtics
Play: Under 222
The Clippers are a long way from home without Chris Paul, leaning on a defense that is #10 in the NBA in points allowed. LA is 7-3 under the total against a winning team, plus the Under is 7-1 in the Clippers last 8 games playing on 2 days rest. Boston is #13 in field goal shooting defense, #5 in three-point defense. Boston is 7-0 under the total against the Pacific division.
Red Dog Sports
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
Play: Under 157½
These two play at Greensboro Coliseum early on Sunday, starting at 1pm. It is not at the Dean Dome. I don't think Notre Dame wants to get into a fast paced game with the Tar Heels, who are off a loss to Miami and a close home win vs. Pitt. UNC plays Duke on Thursday and may have eyes toward their instate rivalry. The Irish have some nice shooters but are not deep and may use up some clock on many possessions.
Ben Burns
Nebraska vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -6
The Hawkeyes lost a close one at Nebraska exactly one month ago. Playing at home, I expect them to avenge that 93-90 double-OT loss.
The Huskers are 3-7 when playing away from home this season, 2-5 in true road games. The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, are 11-3 at home. The Hawkeyes score 87 ppg here on their home floor. The Huskers score less than 70 ppg on the road.
Off back-to-back double-digit victories, the Hawkeyes have gotten back on track. The Huskers lost by double-digits (at home) last game and they also lost their last road game by double-digits.
As of this writing, the O/U line is sitting at 152, at most shops. With the Huskers at 1-3 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range and with the Hawkeyes at 3-0 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range, consider laying the points.