DAVE COKIN
TRAILBLAZERS AT THUNDER
PLAY: THUNDER -4.5
Oklahoma City looks safe to make the playoffs, but they might struggle to play .500 ball with no Kanter for the next couple months.
However, I think they can win this game. Portland has scuffled on the road all season and the situational data here favors the Thunder. Ok City has done a good job of holding serve at home against poor travelers, and the Blazers have some ugly numbers against good home teams.
NBA revenge is not particularly meaningful to put it mildly. But the one prior meeting this season saw Ok City gets its doors blown in at Portland, so I’m hoping that gets them at least a little focused here. I think the number is right where it’s supposed to be on the math, but I’ll play what I see as a situational edge and will give the Thunder a roll.
Scott Rickenbach
Clippers vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -5½
The absence of Chris Paul is certainly hurting the Clippers. Los Angeles has allowed an average of 120.6 points per game in their last 7 games! Granted they did face some tough competition, including Golden State twice, but it is still a concern for the Clips that they have allowed 50% or better from the field in 4 of their last 6 games. In stark contrast, the Celtics have held 4 of their last 5 opponents under 44.4% from the field. Boston has won 6 straight games but a lack of ATS covers is helping them still "fly under the radar" a bit with the betting markets not giving the red hot Celtics the respect they deserve in this spot. I'll gladly lay the manageable number with Boston at home as the Clippers free-fall (including 2-5 ATS L7) continues here. The LA defense has been a major concern and that correlates to ATS stats too. When the Clips enter a game having gone over the total in each of their 3 prior games, they've gone 1-7 ATS this season and 6-16 ATS the past 3 seasons combined. Also, Los Angeles is an ugly 5-11 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Celtics are 19-7 SU (and 16-10 ATS) when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. After a win, but non-cover versus the Lakers Friday, look for the Celtics to win big here.
John Martin
Clippers vs. Celtics
Play: Clippers +5½
The Boston Celtics come in overvalued due to winning six straight games. That has shown here of late as they have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games. All three came at home with a 4-point win over the Pistons, a 5-point win over the Raptors and a 6-point win over the Lakers. The Clippers have lost five of their last seven, but that can be attributed to a brutal schedule in which they've played five of their last six on the road, and two of those games came against the Warriors. The Clippers have had two days off and will be ready to go after last playing on Thursday. The Celtics are the much more tired team, and they are just 1-8 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. Boston is also 1-11 ATS off four or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.
Art Aronson
Blazers vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -4½
Looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on the surging Thunder. Portland lost for a second time in three games in a 108-104 setback to the Mavericks on Friday. OKC broke a three-game slide with a 114-102 win over Memphis on Friday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Thunder after they fell 114-95 in Portland back on December 13th. Also note that the Blazers have struggled in this spot for bettors already this year, going just 3-5 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. Conversely, this is a position in which the Thunder have excelled, going 7-1 ATS as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range and 11-7 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.
Ray Monohan
Colorado / California Over 136
The Buffaloes and Golden Bears battle in the Pac-12 on Sunday and the Over here is a nice number to work with.
The Pac-12 has a lot of teams that play with a lot of pace. This is a case where two of those teams take on each other.
Colorado puts in 76 points per game while Cal is right there with them at 70. These two teams get up and down the floor quick and will hoist from just about anywhere. Expect them to get a lot of open looks here as both teams really lack defensive firepower and a presence inside the paint.
Some trends to note. Over is 5-2 in Golden Bears last 7 games following a ATS loss.
This is a nice spot for the Over. This number is in a range where both teams will benefit from a lot of transition buckets given the defensive abilities of the opposition.
Black Widow
Clippers vs. Celtics
Play: Clippers +5½
Bets on road underdogs like the Clippers who have allowed 105 points or more in three straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 points or less are 35-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This situation's record is 11-1 this season alone. The Clippers are clearly the value side in this game against the Celtics Sunday.
Dave Price
Clemson vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -7
The Florida State Seminoles have enjoyed a tremendous home-court advantage this season. They take a lot of pride in the fact that they are 14-0 at home this season. Not only are they winning, they are dominating, outscoring opponents by nearly 19 points per game on average. They have been basically unstoppable offensively at home with an average of 90.1 points per game on 50.6% shooting. Once the schedule has gotten tougher, Clemson has not played well. The Tigers are 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in ACC play this season with their three wins coming against below-average teams in Wake Forest, Pitt and Georgia Tech. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Seminoles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams that average 21 or more 3-point attempts per game.
Jack Jones
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina
Play: Notre Dame +8½
I expect a big effort Sunday from the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They have lost three straight games coming in for the first time this season to fall to 17-6 on the year. They are now undervalued as they are catching 8.5 points on the road here against the Tar Heels.
North Carolina hasn't played well enough to warrant being this big of a favorite. The Tar Heels easily could have lost their last two games against suspect competition. They did lost 62-77 at Miami as 6-point favorites, and then narrowly escaped with an 80-78 home win over Pittsburgh as 18.5-point favorites last time out.
Adding to the motivation for the Fighting Irish is the fact that they lost to North Carolina in the postseason twice last year. They were pummeled 47-78 in the ACC Tournament, and then 74-88 in the NCAA Tournament. They clearly haven't forgotten and will be determined to put up a much better fight in the rematch here.
Notre Dame has held its own on the road this season. The Fighting Irish are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games. They won at Pittsburgh as a 1.5-point favorite, upset both Miami and VA Tech as road underdogs, and only lost to Florida State by 3 as 5.5-point dogs. They haven't lost any game away from home this season by more than 8 points.
Larry Ness
Blazers vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -4
The Thunder hosted Memphis on Friday night, entering that contest on a three-game losing streak. It was no ordinary streak, as OKC had lost to Cavaliers, the Spurs and the Bulls, all by double digits, with the combined margin of defeat totaling 58 points! Losing at San Antonio and Cleveland wasn't so bad but getting crushed at home 128-100 by the sub-.500 Bulls, was another thing (note: it represented the worst home loss of the season for the Thunder).
Friday night at home to Memphis, Zach Randolph's basket with 2:50 remaining in the game gave the Grizzlies a 102-99 lead and OKC was on the verge of a fourth straight loss. However, a dramatic 15-0 closing run gave OKC a 114-102 win. It's no surprise that Westbrook added a triple-double (38-13-12), giving him an amazing 25 on the season. He's averaging 30.8-10.5-10.3 for the season and he may just join the Big O and end the season averaging a triple-double. However, without Durant, the Thunder find themselves three games back of the Jazz in the Northwest and just No. 7 in what will be an eight-team playoff field in the West. It sure didn't help the team's prospects when Enes Kanter (14.4 -6.7), part of OKC's excellent center duo (along with Adams at 12.2-7.8 ), fractured his right forearm by punching a chair at the end of January. He's expected be sidelined for up to two months).
The Blazers visit OKC for this late afternoon game, a half-game back of the Nuggets for the final playoff spot in the West. They are part of a crowed field, as there are six teams currently within 3 1/2 games of seach other. Portland owns a terrific backcourt in Lillard (25.9-4.8-5.8 ) and McCollum (23.5) but the scoring drop-off is fairly dramatic after that. Center Mason Plumlee ranks third on the team in scoring, (11.0 PPG) and is also the team's top rebounder at 8.0 RPG. Portland can score (107.7 PPG ranks eighth) but the team allows even more at 109.9 PPG (26th).
I'm not very high on OKC but the Thunder are 13-2 SU at home against Western Conference opponents and catch the Blazers playing away from Portland for the first time since January 21st. Portland is just 8-18 SU on the road this season, allowing a whopping 112.4 PPG. This pointspread is more than reasonable, so "lay it" with OKC.
Oskeim Sports
Total number of QB Sacks - Under 3.5
One of the keys to avoiding sacks is by limiting the number of third-and-long situations an offense faces. The Falcons own the league's best first-down offense, averaging a mind-boggling 7.58 yards per play (the Bears were a distant second at 6.70 yards per play). It is not an overstatement to conclude that the 2016 Falcons were the best first-down offense in the history of the NFL. Approximately 40% of all sacks come on third down and sacks are nearly 70% more likely on third down than on first or second down.
Ryan has also grown more comfortable with throwing the ball to receivers other than Julio Jones, which gives him additional outlets/options before taking a sack. Specifically, Ryan has a 105.4 passer rating on 127 passes to Jones and a 126.3 passer rating on 389 throws to his other receiving weapons (other than Jones). From 2013 to 2015, Ryan had a passer rating of 101.3 on throws to Jones, but only a 92.0 passer rating on throws to his other receivers.
Atlanta also benefits from continuity along its offensive line. Indeed, theFalcons' offensive line is the only group in the NFL to start every game this season. Ryan Schraeder and right guard Chris Chester haven't missed a down. Center Alex Mack and left guard Andy Levitre have played 98 percent of the snaps, and Jake Matthews has played 95 percent. Since 2000, only 31 teams in the NFL have started the same five offensive linemen in all sixteen games.
Meanwhile, New England quarterbacks were sacked just 24 times in the 2016 regular season, the third lowest amount of the Bill Belichick era. The credit belongs to both offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia, who have implemented schemes to avoid second and third-and-long situations where approximately 50% of sacks occur. Tom Brady is completing 66.7% of his third down passes for an incredible passer rating of 127.7%.
Finally, Brady's quick-release has been well-documented and provides additional support for taking the UNDER 3.5 sacks in Super Bowl 51.
Buster Sports
Total rushing yards Matt Ryan.- Over 7.5
We have a prop play for the Super Bowl that we see could be an easy winner. The total for Matt Ryan rushing yards is 7 1/2 minus 110. We will be on the OVER here. When you think of Matt Ryan no one thinks of him as a running QB. We definitely do not as well. In saying that we see a New England Patriots defense that plays a high percentage of man to man and we believe that is what Belichick will do to slow the Falcons down. When this happens and Ryan has no one to throw to in certain situations we believe he will get out of the pocket fast and run. In the NFC Championship game he ran 3 times for 23 yards. Over half the games he has played this year he has ran for Over 7 1/2 yards. This is the Super Bowl and a guy like Ryan will do everything he can to win this game. Maybe even run one in the endzone like he did against the Packers. So if this means to go for a run a little more than he would like, he will do it.
Mike Rose
Notre Dame at North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -8.5
The Fighting Irish check in with a -0.4 rebounding margin for the season. On top of that, it’s giving up an average of 9.6 offensive rebounds per game. That just looks to be a train wreck waiting to happen with UNC, the best rebounding team in the country, ripping down an average of 14.5 offensive rebounds per game (#2) as well as 26.7 defensive rebounds per game (#13). Bonzie Colson is going to have his work cut out for him in this clash, and if he gets into any sort of foul trouble, Notre Dame won’t have anyone to body up with Kennedy Meeks and company.
Many will be down on the Fighting Irish in this spot with them losers of three straight and playing some pretty bad basketball. While North Carolina will no doubt be the square side, I still believe it to be the right side to back in this contest. Notre Dame just doesn’t have the playmakers this season, and it’s played a very poor brand of defensive basketball. On top of that, it has one main rebounder. All those weaknesses fit right into what North Carolina does well. UNC has been a moneymaker at home in going 8-3 ATS, and though it hasn’t looked great over the last week, this looks to be a solid get well spot with them laying single digits at home for the first time since rolling FSU the only other time its occurred this season.
David Banks
New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Teaser Patriots +3 & Over 52
Super Bowl 51 pits the NFL’s best offense against the league’s best defense. The game also features two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Atlanta’s Matt Ryan and New England’s Tom Brady. Ryan led the NFL in passer rating and threw for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns during the regular season. Brady was suspended for the first four games of the season for his role in the whole Deflate-gate fiasco and returned with a vengeance. The Patriots lost just once, to Seattle, with Brady running the show. He has been masterful and has been helped by some unlikely stars.
Wide receiver Chris Hogan was a college lacrosse player who played one season of college football before exploding for nine catches, 180 yards, and two touchdowns in the AFC Championship game victory over Pittsburgh. Hogan, Julian Edelman, and Danny Amendola give Brady ample targets. Add in big tight end Martellus Bennett, the team’s second-leading receiver during the regular season, and Brady can get by without TE Rob Gronkowski, who got hurt and missed most of the season.
Atlanta is powerful on offense. They averaged 33.8 points per game during the season. Ryan’s main target has been WR Julio Jones who, like Hogan, had nine receptions for 180 yards and two touchdowns in the Falcons victory over Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. Running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman give Ryan a ton of weapons from which to choose.
The game will come down to defense. The Patriots led the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 15.6 points a game during the regular season. In two playoff games, the Pats allowed 16 and 17. In prior Super Bowls where the league’s best offense and best defense matched up in the Super Bowl, it has been the defense that has prevailed.
Harry Bondi
WILL THERE BE A FIELD GOAL IN FIRST QUARTER – YES (-120)
Super Bowl game plans tend to be conservative in the early going as the teams feel each other out, like two heavyweights in the first round of a championship fight. Heck, even the NFC Championship Game between the Packers and Falcons was 10-0 after one quarter, before going over the ridiculous total of 60. That’s why of all the quarters in the Super Bowl, we think FGs are more prone to occur early, when neither team is facing a huge deficit and will be more likely to settle for three points.
James Manos
Patriots vs. Falcons
Play: Under 58.5
I don't care what the prevailing statistical data says, this is a ridiculously high total for a Superbowl. New England's defensive numbers are a bit overvalued and they will give up some points here but their red zone defense is legit and we get a Pats defense that has had two weeks two prepare. Falcons won't blitz much in this game so expect lengthy drives from New England and as fast moving clock.