John Ryan
Clemson vs Florida State
Play: Clemson +7½
Technical Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Clemson is 15-7 against the money line (+11.6 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons.
Clemson is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons.
Clemson is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread
Brownell is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread in all games he has coached
Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Clemson Tigers.
Jimmy Boyd
Blazers/Thunder Over 216
Recent history suggest we should expect a high-scoring game when the Blazers take on the Thunder. These two teams have combined for at least 209 points in each of their last 4 meetings with 3 of those eclipsing the 220 mark. Given the current form of both teams, I'm expecting a shootout on Super Bowl Sunday. The Trail Blazers are built to play in high-scoring games. They are dynamic offensively 107.7 ppg (109.4 ppg L5) and don't play much defense 109.9 ppg (allowing 112.4 ppg on the road).
While the UNDER is 29-20 on the season for OKC, they are 12-11 to the OVER at home. A bit part of that is the offense really comes alive at 109.5 ppg. The defense has been alright, but they come in allowing 108.6 ppg over their last 5 and recently lost a key defensive piece in Kanter. Given the opponent being the Blazers, I think these two have no problem pushing this total into the 220's.
OVER is 5-0 in the OKC's last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Brandon Lee
Nebraska vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -4½
The Hawkeyes are worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Cornhuskers. Iowa is playing with a lot of confidence right now. They followed up a 85-72 win at home over Ohio State with a 83-63 blowout win at Rutgers. The most impressive thing is Iowa won those two games without their best player in Peter Jok, who looks to have a good chance at returning to the lineup against the Cornhuskers. Either way I like the Hawkeyes to get their revenge on the Cornhuskers, as they certainly haven't forgot a 90-93 double-overtime loss at Nebraska where they should have left with a victory. Iowa is just 13-10 overall, but are a dominant 11-3 at home and are facing a Cornhuskers team that is just 3-7 on the road. Iowa is also 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games off an upset win over a conference opponent.
Mike Lundin
Clippers vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -5
The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a 133-120 loss to Golden State. They've really struggled on the defensive end without injured Chris Paul and covered the spread in just two of their last five games. Here they'll face a Celtics side that has won six straight games but failed to cover the spread in each of the last three. The Celtics are however 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine Sunday games while the Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games. After this one, the Celtics play four straight and 12 of their next 15 on the road, and I think they'll make the most of this game in front of the home town crowd.
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary +136 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Rangers are coming off a 2-1 OT victory in Buffalo but they have been better on the road all season long anyway. The Rangers last home win came on January 23rd against the Kings in a game they were outshot in, 38-17. That was New York’s only win over their last six home games and they did not even come close to deserving it. The Rangers are a dangerous offensive team but the problem is that their defense is weak and they have to rely on good fortune to win as oppose to relying on controlling the puck and outplaying the opposition. The Rangers 28.8% total faceoffs in the offensive zone is second last in the entire league, ahead of only Arizona. That is further proof that New York is spending way too much time in its own end. New York has zero advantages in this game. It is inferior defensively, it has struggled at home, it’s current form is average at best and Henrik Lundqvist in goal is hit and miss but mostly miss.
The Flames might lose here because their goaltending is shaky too. We have no idea how Brian Elliott or Lundqvist will perform but we’re not spotting a price to find out. We’ll hope that Elliott plays well but one thing we know for sure is that Calgary comes into this one confident, hungry and in very good form with three straight wins while outscoring the opposition, 12-6. After a prolonged production slump, Calgary’s top players are producing again. The Flames outstanding puck-moving defensemen give them a big edge back there because New York’s weak puck moving defensemen can’t get the pill to the forwards while Calgary’s can. This game obviously can go either way but if we’re sticking to and playing value, Calgary is the no-brainer play based on all the things mentioned above. Go Flames!
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +6½ over CALIFORNIA
Such a great spot to take the Buffs because they’re so undervalued based on their misleading record. We’ve said it before and will say it again that results influence the market and the market influences the price. As a result of that hypothesis, we get Colorado plus inflated points in a game we’re calling them to win outright. Let us set it up for you. Cal is 7-3 in Pac-12 play while Colorado is 3-7. Overall, the Golden Bears are 16-6 while the Buffs are just 13-10. There are other things that influence people into making a bad bet and one of those things are past results or trends. In that regard, the Buffs have lost 10 of 11 games all-time at Cal, including a 79-65 loss last year. To that we say, “who gives a flying f**k”? You see, thousands upon thousands of games are played every year and foolish trends will develop over time with some sticking out more than others. To base one’s decision on a meaningless stat or trend is complete foolishness and if Cal wins and covers here, it’s because they were the better team on this day and not because they beat Colorado eight years ago.
While we respect what the Golden Bears have accomplished this year and the style in which they play, they might be the second best team here. Cal’s out-of-conference strength of schedule (SOS) ranked 241st in the country. The Golden Bears adjusted tempo or possessions per 40 minutes ranks 302nd in the country, meaning they play at a snail’s pace, unlike Cal teams’ of the past. When a team plays at that pace, indeed it can be effective but it also means that spotting points with said team is risky business because scoring is at a premium and playing catchup, should it come to that, takes them out of their comfort zone.
Check those road struggles off the list for a Colorado team that suddenly has found a spark. Combining a hot-shooting effort and a balanced scoring punch with a dominant effort on the glass, the Buffs were able to overcome a rash of turnovers to hold off Stanford for an 81-74 win Thursday night. That broke a 10-game road losing streak for the Buffs against Pac-12 opponents dating back to last year. Despite the 0-7 start in Pac-12 play, which has been answered by a modest three-game win streak, CU actually has performed with admirable consistency on offense. Even though the Buffs' league-leading free throw and 3-point percentages are down from a year ago, CU's overall field goal percentage and scoring average through 10 games are significantly higher than their league marks a year ago. Colorado’s offense is so dangerous. The Buffs are also one of the best rebounding teams in the conference, which helps significantly when taking points because second chance points come into play.
Buffs’ coach, Tad Boyle does a good job of building a competitive squad every year. Since his arrival, the Buffaloes have gone to the post-season six out of seven years after just one trip in the previous 47. This year, the Buffs have experience and now they have some momentum. After starting conference play 0-7, the Buffaloes pulled off the most inexplicable upset of the season by upending the high-flying Oregon Ducks. Moving beyond the respective records, the Buffaloes might be gelling at the the turn as they’ve stampeded their way to a three game win streak while the Golden Bears are coming off a thrilling and emotionally draining double OT victory over Utah on Thursday. The timing is just right to fade the Bears and get behind the Buffs.
Big Al
Los Angeles vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
At first blush, the Kings' five-game winning streak - four of which were on the road - may seem very impressive coming into their Super Bowl Sunday noon-time match-up against the Caps in DC. But two of those five victories were against arguably the three worst teams in the league (Colorado, Arizona, New Jersey) - at least in Goal Differential. And then they needed overtime to beat another team with a poor goal differential - the Flyers - yesterday in Philadelphia. The Caps caught a flight home from Montreal yesterday after a matinee victory over the Canadiens, thereby extending their lead over the rest of the teams in the league. They will look to avenge an overtime loss in L.A. in their last meeting with the Kings back in March of 2016. It will be interesting to see if the Caps learned from their over-use of goalie Braden Holtby last season. Holtby won the Vezina trophy as the league's top goalie, but seemed to wear down in the playoffs as DC suffered yet another early exit. So don't be surprised if the home team goes with Holtby's very capable backup, Philipp Grubauer on the short rest. The home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
Power Sports
Portland vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City
The Thunder picked up a much-needed win Friday night, beating Memphis 114-102. That snapped a three-game losing streak. Tonight, they host a Portland team that is off a tough home loss to Dallas. Neither of these teams are what they were last year; OKC obviously w/o Durant, but Portland's issues run deeper. They are awful defensively (25th in efficiency) and 26th in the ATS standings. My recommendation is to lay the points here.
Homecourt advantage seems to matter when these teams meet. The home side has won the L5 meetings. The Blazers are just 8-18 SU away from home this year and giving up over 112 PPG. This will be their first road game since going 1-3 out East in mid-January. The one win came in overtime, so you'd actually have to go back to January 10th (against the Lakers) to find their last road win that came in regulation. The Thunder are a solid 17-7 SU at home, outscoring their visitors by about seven points per game. They are 7-1 ATS when favored between 3.5 and 6 points here.
I look for Russell Westbrook (who else?) to be the difference maker here. Portland has Damian Lillard, but this one will be one of the few matchups where they don't have the edge at the point guard position. The Thunder also have the edge defensively and on the boards.