Free Picks for Sunday, January 15th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Jason Sharpe
Green Bay at Dallas
Play: Under 52.5
These are two of the slower-paced teams in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers likely won't be as strong offensively here in this one as it looks like they will be without their top WR Jordy Nelson in this game and his loss is huge. There's a slight inflation right now on Green Bay Packers totals also considering that they've went 'over' in each of their past 5 games, BUT keep in mind that their last two contests EACH would have went 'under' had they BOTH hadn't had a Hail Mary touchdown in the game. The Packers offense has been getting all the credit for the current 7-game winning streak but the defense has also had a lot to do with the current as they've allowed 10 points per game less in those last 7 games compared to what they had allowed before it. For as much hype as the Dallas offense got this season, they ended up being were of more of an 'under' team than an 'over' this year, including going below the total in 9 of their last 13 games.
Marc Lawrence
Packers vs. Cowboys
Play: Over 52
Edges - Green Bay: 12-6 OVER last last 18 away playoff games. Dallas: 7-4 OVER last 11 home playoff games. With these two squads having gone 12-6 OVER in their last 18 meetings, including 9-1 OVER the last 10 games here, we recommend a 1* playing the OVER total in this contest.
Jack Jones
Steelers vs. Chiefs
Play: Steelers +2
The Pittsburgh Steelers are playing as well as anyone in the NFL right now. They went on a four-game losing streak midseason, but they have reeled off eight straight victories since. They key has been getting their Big 3 on the field all at the same time in Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.
In fact, last week’s game against Miami was the first time that Big Ben, Bell and Brown have all been available at the same time for a playoff game. And the result was a good one. The Steelers thumped the Dolphins 30-12. Brown caught two touchdowns from Roethlisberger in the first quarter to give the Steelers a 14-0 lead that they wouldn’t relinquish. Bell tacked on two rushing touchdowns later on to seal it.
Not only are the Steelers winning on the scoreboard, they are also dominating the box scores, which is the true sign of a good team. They have actually outgained 10 of their last 11 opponents. The only exception was in Week 17 when they rested their Big 3 and had nothing to play for against the Cleveland Browns. They still managed to win that game to keep their momentum going, and this team feels like they are unbeatable right now.
Kansas City may be 12-4, but it has the numbers of a 7-9 team and one that is clearly not one of the best teams in the NFL. In fact, the Chiefs rank 28th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 25.5 yards per game on the season. Only the Dolphins, Rams, Browns and 49ers have been worse, so they are in some pretty poor company.
Kansas City has been winning with smoke and mirrors this season. The Chiefs lead the NFL in turnover differential, which has been the biggest key. They also have more points scored from their defense and special teams than any other team in the league. While that kind of stuff can happen during the regular season, it doesn’t happen against elite teams like the Steelers.
We saw that first-hand earlier this season when the Steelers stomped the Chiefs 43-14 at Heinz Field. I was all over the Steelers in that game as one of my biggest bets of the season. Roethlisberger finished 22-of-27 passing for 300 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, while Bell rushed for 144 yards on only 18 carries in the win. The Chiefs trailed 36-0 after three quarters and scored all 14 of their points in garbage time in the 4th.
Plays against favorites (KANSAS CITY) – revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. If this were a regular season game, then I’d think more of the revenge factor working in favor of the Chiefs. But the Steelers will be just as motivated to win this game, and they have the tools to do it now that almost everyone is healthy.
Pittsburgh is 8-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Steelers are 9-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Kansas City is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 playoff games. The Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh is 12-3-3 ATS in its last 18 January games. Kansas City is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, and 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff home games.
Randall The Handle
Packers 11-6 at Cowboys 13-3
Funny game, this football is. The Cowboys were a 4-12 team a year ago, good for last place in the NFC East. Then a serious pre-season injury to star quarterback Tony Romo appeared to doom the team for this campaign. After all, Dallas would be forced to go with a rookie fourth-round pick at QB, alongside a rookie running back. Then, as football miracles go, one occurred as QB Dak Prescott had an unprecedented year (3,367 yards passing, 23-4 TD-INT, six rushing TDs, 104.9 passer rating), RB Ezekiel Elliott was as good or better than advertised after leading the league in rushing with 1,631 yards, and the ’Boys ended up with the best record in the NFC. Accompanying those two, Dallas offers a strong offensive line, a top rated receiver and an improved defence. But it’s still not enough to be lined up as a significant favourite here. Prescott is a 4½-point favourite over the best pure passer in the NFL. And it just so happens that Aaron Rodgers is on fire. After his team had some early season struggles, the two-time MVP threw for 19 majors and zero interceptions in Green Bay’s final seven games while completing almost 70% of his passes. Rodgers’ hot hand carried over to the playoffs last week when torching the supposedly defensively sound Giants for four majors and 362 yards passing. Do those numbers justify receiving the most amount of points the Packers have been offered all year? We hardly think so. Playing away from Lambeau may concern some but, to us, it is just another positive as Rodgers has been excellent in enclosed stadiums, covering five of previous seven in controlled environments. Going back to 2011, rookie QBs are 0-6 against non-rookie QBs (in the playoffs). It’s not like the Cowboys are infallible. Dallas covered just one of its final six games, all as favourites. This underdog offers too much to be ignored. TAKING: PACKERS +4½
Steelers 12-5 at Chiefs 12-4
Turnabout is fair play. So when the Steelers redeemed themselves with a relatively easy win over the Dolphins last week after Miami had trounced Pittsburgh earlier in the regular season, we won’t be surprised to see the Chiefs return the favour here after receiving a 43-14 thumping to the Steelers back in early October. Of course, with Pittsburgh’s arsenal of offensive talent, a tightly fought contest is expected. But just needing a narrow win to get a cover here is our preferred recommendation. Kansas City has had an added week to prepare. If Andy Reid’s history is worthwhile in such situations, then the Chiefs hold a strong edge. When given an extra week of data to study, the veteran coach owns a 17-2 mark in his team’s return game. That stellar mark has spilled into the playoffs as well with Reid coached teams a perfect 4-0 when awaiting a wild-card winner. History aside, we like K.C.’s ball-hawking ability as the defence was tied for the league lead in takeaway ratio at +16 this season while leading solely in interceptions with 18. While we respect QB Ben Roethlisberger’s throwing abilities, we’ve also seen him make too many bonehead throws in his day, including a pair against the Dolphins last week, luckily without consequence. We also don’t know how badly Ben’s foot injury. Even if the foot is not an issue, Roethlisberger has been far less effective on the road than at home this season. As a visitor, Big Ben is completing just 59.4% of his passes with nine tds, eight interceptions and a 78.4 passer rating compared to 70.8% completion rate, 20 TDs, just five picks and a 116.7 passer rating at Heinz Field. The first meeting got away early on the Chiefs due to turnovers on a rainy day in Pittsburgh. Dynamic Tyreek Hill was both figuratively and literally getting his feet wet that day. He’s been a game-changer since and when you combine his speed and big play ability to go along with KC’s opportunistic defence and revved up home crowd, Kansas City gets the nod. TAKING: CHIEFS –1½
Wunderdog
Steelers @ Chiefs
Pick: Under 44
The Kansas City Chiefs have used some smoke and mirrors this season, managing to pull off a tremendous 12-4 campaign. Why smoke and mirrors? They were actually out-gained from the line of scrimmage by 26 yards per game. Perhaps the most telling stat of all shows the bend-but-don't-break defense the Chiefs have been all season, especially at home. They finished their schedule with opponents generating one point for every 23.2 yards gained at home, good for the best number in the league. The Pittsburgh Steelers closed the season with seven straight wins, and the reason is in the defense. Through Week 10, the Steelers allowed 22.9 points per game and three opponents topped the 30-point mark. But from Week 11 on, they allowed 16.6 ppg, and no team reached 30. Pittsburgh’s offense was very pedestrian this season on the road, scoring just 21.6 points per game. Kansas City averaged 23.9 per game at home, while holding opponents to just 15.7 per game in this building. Dating back to last season, the Steelers are 16-7 UNDER when facing a good quarterback (those averaging over 60% completions). And, as head man of the Chiefs, Andy Reid is 20-7 UNDER as a home favorite. I think the outcome of this game is going to be determined on the defensive side of the football.
DAVE COKIN
PACKERS AT COWBOYS
PLAY: COWBOYS -4.5
The red hot Green Bay Packers are heading to Dallas looking to knock off the NFC’s top-seeded Cowboys. This figures to be the heaviest wagering volume game by a decent margin this weekend, and there’s a case to be made for each team. I’ll focus on what I like here that tilts me to the Dallas side.
Aaron Rodgers is playing at an otherworldly level right now, and that makes trying to beat the Packers QB a tall order. But it’s a team game, and injuries to the Rodgers supporting cast could be a real difference maker on Sunday. The likely absence of wideout Jordy Nelson is huge, as his not being on the field is going to be one less headache for the Cowboys defense. The good news for GB is that RB Ty Montgomery is apparently good to go. Green Bay is going to find a way to get its share of points in this game, even against a strong Dallas defense. But I don’t see even the scorching hot Rodgers putting up gigantic numbers.
The Cowboys have sold me. I was skeptical early as to whether the team could play at a high level all season long with rookies in key positions. But they most certainly did so, and I can’t argue with those who believe the Cowboys are now the best team in not only the NFC, but the entire NFL.
The keys for me here as Dallas being well rested, and playing at home against a team they demolished during the regular season. Granted, the Packers have improved dramatically since that initial meeting. But I’m still not sold on their defense and I just don’t see Green Bay being able to contain that lethal rookie combo of Prescott and Elliot.
This is a great betting game as those who will be backing the Pack have plenty of ammunition to support their choice as well. I don’t expect this to be a blowout. But I do see Dallas as the winner and I made this line Cowboys -6. That’s not exactly a monster differential, but it’s enough for me side with the Dallas side minus the points on Sunday.
DAVE COKIN
MILWAUKEE AT ATLANTA
PLAY: MILWAUKEE +3
Milwaukee continues to impress with the Greek Freak leading the way. Both teams are in good form right now, but Atlanta did have its winning streak snapped in a tough loss to the Celtics. When a mid-level team goes on a tear, it’s not the worst idea in the world to go against them once the run ends, and that’s what I’m looking to do here.
I also like the revenge angle in place in this game. That’s generally not something I’ll play a great deal of attention to at the professional level, but there are exceptions.
In the prior meeting at Milwaukee last month, the Bucks suffered their worst melt of the season. Milwaukee was up 20 at the half in that game. But GA got into foul trouble, the team lost its flow and Atlanta got red hot in pulling off a pretty spectacular rally. Greg Monroe talked after the game about the team having “a total letdown at both ends” adding it “just can’t happen”.
In the lengthy NBA regular season, I like to look for spots where I am pretty well convinced I’ll get a big effort, especially if I can grab points to boot. That’s the case here, so I’ll take the Bucks with the points.
Bruce Marshall
Drake +7
UNI is burning money faster than Melania Trump on a shopping spree, as the Panthers dropped their 8th straight and 12th in their last 13 vs. line (ouch!) with their latest loss on Wednesday at Bradley. UNI is a far cry from LY's Big Dance entry and could again be minus its only DD scorer, G Jeremy Morgan (16.6 ppg), who missed Wednesday's loss at Peoria with a sprained ankle. Drake is yet to carry its recent home prowess (won first three Valley games in Des Moines) to the conference trail. But the Bulldog offense is igniting behind jr. G Reed Timmer (16.6 ppg), who scored 28 in his team's recent win vs. Evansville.
Ben Burns
Houston at Brooklyn
Play: Houston -12½
Under different circumstances, this might be a good spot for the Nets. Had the Rockets still been on a big winning streak, as they recently were, this is a game that they could easily have taken for granted. Thats essentially what happened when these teams met at Houston a month ago. The Rockets were off a double-digit win and in the middle of a winning streak. Laying -13, they only beat Brooklyn by four points.
Things set up differently this time though. Off back-to-back losses, for the first time all season, the Rockets figure to be all business. They had yesterday off and they don't play tomorrow. There's no reason to hold back. Even factoring in last month's non-cover against these same Nets, the Rockets are an outstanding 15-4 ATS (18-1 SU) against sub-500 teams. They're also 4-1 SU/ATS their last five, off an upset loss.
Scott Spreitzer
Iowa vs. Northwestern
Play: Iowa +6½
Northwestern continues to chase the ever elusive Big Dance appearance and have compiled a 14-4 SU record. But I believe the line has caught up to the Wildcats in this one. Northwestern still plays a decent brand of defensive basketball, but they aren't exactly "dead-eyes" on the offensive end. They've averaged just 66.8 ppg in their last four conference games on 41.7% shooting, including 28.6% from behind the arc. Iowa's playing a better brand of basketball of late, winning three of four, including a win over Purdue last time out. In fact, they're a 3-point OT loss away from a 4-0 conference streak. Peter Jok is on fire for the Hawkeyes and backcourt mate Jordan Bohannon is a solid disher, allowing him to hang with the Northwestern backcourt and create solid looks on the offensive end. Iowa enters on an 8-2 SU run overall, and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine against the Wildcats.
Bill Biles
Steelers/Chiefs Under 44
The forecast for the game does not look good as an ice storm is hitting the KC area. I think this will affect the game and it will be a ball controlled game with a lot of short passes and running. Field position will be key so I like the under in this one.
Tony George
Steelers vs. Chiefs
Play: Chiefs -1
The ice storm is hitting Kansas City on Saturday and Sunday (I know because I live here) and this game was moved to 8:20 EST on Sunday to accommodate the KC fans to fill up Arrowhead where the Chiefs lie in wait for the Steelers who embarrassed them earlier this season in Pittsburgh. Rest assured the fan base will be good and oiled up and near riot stages for this huge game in Kansas Cit, where the field will be covered until late Sunday afternoon when the storm passes. No doubt the public is going to love the Steelers here, and according to Matt Holt, COO of CG Technology in Las Vegas, head of 7 books, this is a Pro's versus Joe's game all the way in the amount of bets tallied to date. This just in, the sharps love Kansas City and the public loves the Steelers. No surprise there for anyone who follows the :Las Vegas perspective.
Kansas City is a complete team, perhaps one of the most complete teams in the NFL left standing in terms of offensive balance, Special teams, defense, coaching and other intangibles. Andy Reid is 19-2 SU off a bye week the last 21 times that scenario occurred. There is one big elephant in the room in this game, and it pits QB Alex Smith of Kansas City against Big Ben of the Steelers, and there is no doubt Big Ben is the better QB, but how healthy is he? The Steelers running game with Bell has been devastating to opponents and the Steelers are on a roll coming in here, but how bad is Big Ben's ankle is a huge question mark. His success throwing to WR Brown and a host of other studs, is the fact he buys time my moving around in the pocket and making big plays down the field. That is a KEY in this game, because Kansas City can flat out get after a passer.
Another key is the fact Pittsburgh turns it over, and Big Ben does force the ball, and Kansas City is one of the best in the NFL with gather turnovers (33 defensive takeaways) and they thrive on this aspect. The other big intangible here, which is a huge tangible item in my opinion, is the play of Kansas City's special teams, and their return game with rookie sensation and play maker Tyreek Hill. Anytime Hill has the ball in his hands it is calling all cars alert for opposing teams because he can take it to the house on any play. Add in a Pro Bowl Punter and great kicker and KC has an advantage there as well. Also in play here is TE Travis Kelce, who is the second best TE in the NFL behind Gronk. He can line up in the slot, and is a huge issue for any defense to handle.
At days end I am siding with the sharps in this game, because their are so many small advantages that line up in Kansas City's favor here at add up to an advantage I cannot ignore, and no doubt the home field here is worth 3 points as Arrowhead is one of the toughest venues in the NFL to play in, along with Seattle. Alex Smith does not make mistakes and can manage a game, and KC has a ball hawking secondary and offer explosive plays on special teams which gets field position for a very balanced offense. While Big Ben is dangerous and has vast experience in games like this, I feel this is Kansas City's game to lose, and with an added week of prep, revenge and the better coach, I am laying the small number here, current -1 on the Las Vegas Board.
Jesse Schule
Pistons vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +2
The Lakers were crushed by the Clippers at Staples Center last night, but they should have a decent chance to get back on track at home versus the Pistons tonight. Detroit is really struggling, playing their final game of a five game road trip, coming off three straight losses. Head Coach Stan Van Gundy doesn't sound very optimistic about his team's play in recent weeks: "We can't stop anybody. We just can't," Van Gundy lamented. "I mean for the first 21 games we were the second-best defensive team in the league and now we are one of the worst. I'm frustrated. Not with our players, I'm frustrated with myself that I can't figure this out. I mean, we literally can't stop anyone, ever." The Lakers are the healthier of the two teams, as the Pistons are missing Caldwell-Pope and Leuer. Luol Deng was rested last night, and should be ready to go here in the second game of a back to back. Detroit is 0-6 ATS in their last six visits to the Staples Center, and this looks like a tough spot for them to break that trend.
Brandon Shively
Packers vs. Cowboys
Play: Packers +6
This is too many points for me to pass up on Green Bay, especially with the Cowboys concluding the season on a 1-5 ATS run. They had 4 consecutive games decided by 6 points or less in Weeks 12-16.
Green Bay has won 7 straight. Aaron Rodgers is in a zone and they are still a sizable dog here. There is pressure on the 1-2 rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. I think that pressure and inexperience has to carry some weight here where as the Packers are a ‘been there and done it’ type of team.
Green Bay lost at home earlier this year to the Cowboys so we have a revenge angle here also. The last 2 years in the Playoffs, the Packers were an underdog twice playing with revenge and covered both games. They lost both of those straight up, but were competitive. That’s what I expect here.
The Cowboys have been a home favorite in the playoffs once in the last 6 years. That was in 2015 when they barely beat the Lions by 4 points, thanks to help from the refs in my opinion.
The Packers will be without Jordy Nelson, something that they dealt with last year. Aaron Rodgers has confidence in his other receivers and brings out the best in them and boost their confidence.
I’m not going into depth on the Cowboy’s strength and their 13-3 record and playing with a week of rest, etc...This is not a big fade on Dallas, but rather a stronger play on the Packers. It should not be needed, but Rodgers is always capable of getting a back door cover also. Favorites have gone 6-0 ATS heading into Sunday and all 6 games decided by double digits. It’s about time for an entertaining close game.