Art Aronson
Packers vs. Cowboys
Play: Over 52
Dallas is good defensively, but if the unit has had one weakness, it’s been its performance against the pass. And that could spell trouble in facing the Packers’ red hot Aaron Rodgers, who has 40 TD’s compared to just seven INT’s this season. The Cowboys beat the Packers 30-16 at Lambeau Field in week six. Dak Prescott threw three touchdowns and one interception, while Rodgers threw for 294 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Note though that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in six of eight on the road this season and in five of six after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER in four of five as a home fav of 3.5 to seven points.
Bob Harvey
Knicks vs. Raptors
Play: Raptors -9½
The Toronto Raptors try for their third straight win over a division rival when they host the New York Knicks. The Canadien club has won the last four in the series, including a 118-107 home win on Nov. 12.
The Raptors (26-13, 24-14 ATS)held off a challenge for the top spot in the division with a 114-106 win over the Boston Celtics on Tuesday and followed that up with a 132-113 triumph over the Brooklyn Nets on Friday - the most points scored in a regulation game in franchise history.
The Knicks (18-22, 23-17 ATS)snapped a three-game slide with a 104-89 win over the Chicago Bulls on Thursday, marking their second victory in the last 11 games.
The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine series meetings in Toronto and 6-2 to the high side in the past eight meetings overall.
The Raptors are 4-0 to the OVER in their last four overall.
The Knicks are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games but 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic.
The Raptors are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. the Eastern Conference and 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Toronto is 16-5 vs. the number in their last 21 against the Atlantic Division and 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 home games.
Jimmy Boyd
Packers vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -4
The betting public will certainly be on Green Bay given the run Rodgers and the Packers are on. While it’s tough betting against Rodgers when he’s playing like this, I like the Cowboys here. Dallas is simply the better team and have the ability to counter Rodgers and the Packers offense.
One of the best ways to beat a team that has an elite quarterback like Rodgers, is not let him have the ball. Unlike the Giants, the Cowboys can do just that. Dallas’ offensive line will have their way with Green Bay’s front. That will lead to a big day from Elliot and the running game. Something they had no answer for in the first meeting.
I also think Prescott will be able to expose the Packers secondary. Keep in mind Eli Manning and the Giants had their chances. New York's receivers didn’t couldn't catch anything and Manning had a number of easy throws that he simply didn't make.
An even bigger factor here is the injuries that Green Bay sustained in the win over New York. The biggest being wide out Jordy Nelson, who won't be available. Running back/wide out Ty Montgomery is probable, but will likely be less than 100%.
The other thing that gets overlooked and has been all season is the Cowboys defense. It might not have the star names, but it produced at a high level. The Cowboys led the league in run defense (83.5 ypg) and were 5th in points allowed (19.1 ppg). I think they can do enough here to slow down Green Bay's offense and pull away for the victory.
Mike Anthony
Packers vs. Cowboys
Play: Under 52
It wasn’t long ago that 32 and 17 points were tallied in consecutive Cowboys games. Once in the past five outings, the output has topped 52.5. While recent Packers games have gone north of this figure, it appears as if their premier WR, Jordy Nelson (ribs), will be sidelined. I look for a conservative offensive game plan for Dallas rookie QB Dak Prescott, with time-consuming handoffs to RB Ezekiel Elliott.
Larry Ness
New York at Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The New York Knicks enter this game with questions surrounding Kristaps Porzingis (19.5-7.4), who has a sore left Achilles' tendon. He did not play Thursday when the Knicks defeated the Bulls 104-89 to end a three-game losing streak (it was just their second win in the last 11 games). It was the fourth game that Porzingis has missed because of the injury. "I need to get it 100 percent before I step on the court again," Porzingis told the media on Saturday. "We have a tough schedule ahead of us and I would like to be back as soon as possible, but I have to make sure I'm healthy and can give 100 percent to the team."
The Raptors come off an expected 132-113 win over the hapless Nets, although Toronto somehow trailed the Nets by one point late in the third quarter before going on a 28-7 surge and drawing away to a 19-point victory. "That's human nature, a phenomenon I've never figured out," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey said. "I commend our guys for finding a way, that's what our league is all about, but you can't play with fire like that and let a team hang around, hang around, hang around."
The Raptors also used a strong fourth quarter to beat the Knicks in the teams' first meeting this year, winning 118-107 back on Nov 12 at Toronto (there were 27 lead changes). DeMar DeRozan (28.2) scored 33 points for Toronto and Carmelo Anthony (22.1) had 31 for New York. The Knicks are 6-14 (10-10 ATS) on the road and the Raptors are 14-6 (12-7-1 ATS) at home.The 26-13 Toronto Raptors lead the Atlantic Division in good part because they are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS against division foes this season.
The Knicks have lost 12 games by double digits this yera and now face teh East's highest-scoring team in the Raptors (111.12 PPG). That doesn't bode well.
LV Traders
Cincinnati at East Carolina
Pick: East Carolina
Good God, this one is going to be ugly. Both teams are offensively challenged...first one to 60 points will get the win. East Carolina can't hit water if it fell off a boat but it plays tenacious defense and will be able to frustrate the Bearcats in half-court sets. 15 points is always a lot... especially in games like this.
Jim Feist
Iowa at Northwestern
Pick: Over
Iowa has offensive talent, but going with so many freshmen means they are not a strong defensive team, especially on the road. Iowa is 4-1-1 over the total on the road and 13-6 over in Sunday games. Northwestern is home from a two-game trip and the offense clicks better at home.
Tony Finn
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -1
The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 44.5) take the heated grass at Arrowhead on Sunday night in one of the two weekend AFC Divisional playoff games. The league, due to undesirable weather conditions, have moved the early Sunday kickoff from 1:00 p.m. ET to an 8:20 p.m. ET start with the broadcast rights going to NBC.
There is a large amount of history between these two franchises. Most notably the connection of the Pittsburgh coaching staff to the Kansas City organization. Head Mike Tomlin is in his 10th year on the job after taking over for former KC defensive coordinator and now Steelers’ legend Bill Cowher. Offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, was the KC head man from 2009 to 2011.
The last time these teams met, the Chiefs were utterly embarrassed , and done so on national television in a game that could be argued as the one Sunday this 2016 season that coach Andy Reid’s group didn’t show up to play. Kansas City was never in the game at the Ketchup Bottle, a contest that saw Reid’s troupe give up big plays in the passing game and commit several unforced errors (turnovers).
The forecast for Kansas City, Missouri, on Sunday is for freezing rain and ice. While the field at Arrowhead is heated and has terrific drainage the weather will mostly effect the fans and their comfort level in the wet and cold conditions. With the time change and the unpleasant conditions will the KC fan base be their usual loud self or will they be sitting on their hands? The Steelers are a cold-weather team, so they’ll be ready for it.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is a future Hall of Fame quarterback but his numbers this season outside of Heinz Field have been pedestrian. Big Ben has nine touchdown passes to eight interceptions as a visitor this season. The Steelers contract the best tailback in the game today, that being Le’Veon Bell, who is a patient runner and is deadly as a receiver. For a team that passes the ball 60 percent of the time Bell registered the third-most yards from scrimmage (1,884) in the league despite missing three games due to a suspension. Bell and the Steelers offense make the KC defensive look bad earlier this year. Bell recorded 178 total yards in 23 touches in the Steelers’ 43-14 victory over KC in Week 4.
There has been plenty of discussion this year about the Steelers improved performance defensively. D-coordinator Keith Butler had a difficult act to follow replacing future Hall of Fame coach Dick LeBeau. Statistically, the only area that Pittsburgh’s stop-unit showed signs of positive gain in 2016 is in the area of pressuring the quarterback. Butler improved the squad’s sack total from 33 to 48 (third in the NFL) and turnovers created from 21 to 30. The current 3-4 alignment of Butler’s defensive is not the close to the LeBeau blitz-happy scheme. The Steelers protect their slow-ish secondary by playing a lot of two-deep zone which in turn challenges the opposition to run the football. The Steelers still use some of LeBeau’s fire-zone blitzes that send corners and safeties into their opponents backfield but this is a gamble against the short passing, West Coast scheme, of Alex Smith and Andy Reid. The Steelers rank 16th in passing defense (242.6 per game) and 13th in rushing defense (100 yards per game).
Big plays against the Pittsburgh defense have been a common occurrence this year. The Steelers “D" can be vandalized by speed and that is what the Kansas City offense presents. Butler’s unit has missed 121 tackles, the eighth-most in the league. That means Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West are running backs in a Reid offense that uses short passes that are nothing short of extended handoffs.
Short passes to physical and speedy tight end and leading receiver Travis Kelce in combination with deep threat and sweep specialist Tyreek Hill make what most see as a vanilla KC offensive scheme, uber dangerous. Hill is the only player in league history with at least three receiving, rushing and return (punt/kick) touchdowns in one season.
Quarterback Alex Smith is Reid’s game manager. He doesn’t force balls into tight windows and all of the Chiefs passing plays are timing routes. There is very little improvising by Smith and the offense. His winning percentage and passer ratings when he gets the ball out of his hands in less than 2.5 seconds are phenomenal. Smith has thrown 11 touchdowns against only one interception in five playoff games in the Reid scheme. Hill’s emergence has given Smith the quick hit weapon this offense has needed for the last two years and his ability to go the distance in the return game has been a game changers for the Chiefs, and how the opposition game-plans for this Chiefs team.
The Steelers ran the ball with success a week ago in a big win over the Miami Dolphins. Pittsburgh used six offensive linemen for 21 plays a week ago. If the weather continues to be wet, cold with gusty winds at Arrowhead don’t be surprised if Ben and his unit once again attempt to ground and pound on Sunday night.
Pittsburgh has managed to win eight straight contests and come into this AFC Divisional Round Playoff contest with confidence. They have a roster and quarterback with Super-Bowl experience. However, this team has played poorly, even ugly at times, on the road. A game in Arrowhead presents a number of hurdles for a team that is bound to timing, something Ben and the offensive will be hard pressed to acquire, in a loud and disruptive Arrowhead atmosphere.
Give Andy Reid and his staff two weeks to prepare for an opponent and history tells us it is light’s out. Reid is 16-2 coming off a bye and is 3-0 for his career in divisional-round games with an extra week to prepare.
Mike Rose
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -4.5
These clubs hooked up in Lambeau back in Week 6. Dallas pulled a wire-to-wire job and was never threatened. Dak Prescott threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns, while Ezekiel Elliott racked up 157 yards on the ground on a hefty 28 carries. Aaron Rodgers threw for just under 300 yards and a touchdown, but was also picked off once and got next to nothing from his ground attack. The win put an end to the Cowboys five game losing streak in the rivalry dating back to 2009 and moved them to 2-4 ATS in the last six meetings.
I was all over the Packers run to a Super Bowl title back in 2010. They got healthy at the right time and all the pieces fell into place. That’s not the case this time around. Jordy Nelson suffered a pair of broken ribs early in last week’s game and will be nothing more than a spectator this week. Christine Michael is garbage, and if he’s forced to carry the load for an ineffective Ty Montgomery if unable to bounce back from the knee injury just suffered, the Packers offense will be one dimensional and Rodgers will be without his best target making it that much tougher for the green and gold to hang with Dallas.
On top of that mess, the Cowboys offense had their way with Green Bay’s defense in the first go round and I don’t foresee that changing much this time around either. The Giants had no ground game to keep the chains moving. Dallas does, and Elliot is going to be fed the rock a ton in this game. Once Green Bay loads the box, that’s when Prescott is going to beat them over the top likely for a big play or two to Dez Bryant who you know wants to put on a show after pulling a no show in these franchise’s Divisional Round tilt at Lambeau a couple year’s back. Dallas has been the cream of the NFC crop all season long, and has the makeup on both sides of the ball to frustrate the undermanned Packers once again.
Harry Bondi
Pittsburgh / Kansas City Under
Don’t be fooled by the game between these two teams earlier this year when they combined for 57 points. These are two dead “under” teams who before this year’s affair averaged just 34 points per game in the previous two meetings. These two teams have also combined to go 22-12 to the under in all games this season. What’s more, the Steelers have gone under in 19 of their last 26 road games overall, while the Chiefs have cashed under tickets in 16 of their last 23 home games. The icy and cold conditions in KC will be exaggerated by the move to a night game, so we’ll call for another low-scoring game
David Banks
Chicago @ Memphis
Pick: Chicago
The Chicago Bulls have won three straight and Jimmy Butler is playing at an All-Star level. The Bulls will travel to Memphis to face the Grizzlies on Sunday night. The Bulls’ wins were big ones too over Charlotte, Toronto, and Cleveland, three of the top six teams in the Eastern Conference.
In the win over Cleveland, Butler scored 10 of his 20 points in the fourth quarter and he erupted for 42 in an overtime win over Toronto. Butler is 10th in the league in scoring averaging 25.6 points per game and is a likely All-Star. Teammate Dwayne Wade is scoring 18.6 per game and point guard Rajon Rondo is dishing out 7.1 assists per game. Chicago is currently seventh in the East and can make a move on Indiana and Charlotte which are both currently 20-18.
Out West, Memphis is in the fifth spot in the conference standings and has won two straight including a very impressive 128-119 win over Golden State in Oakland. Pairing Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the lineup seems to be working out as evidenced in the victory over the Warriors. Gasol scored 23 points while Randolph shot 12-of-17, scored 27 points, and grabbed 11 rebounds. Point guard Mike Conley adds over 18 points a game and the Memphis defense is one of the best in the NBA. The Grizzlies hold opponents to 98.6 points per game. If they can slow down Butler and Wade, they will have a great shot at a win on Sunday.
Mark Franco
Steelers + 1.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers flashed their offensive might last week in a drubbing of Miami in their wild-card game, but their best offensive performance of the season came in a 29-point thrashing of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. The Chiefs get a chance to exact some revenge - this time on their home field - when they host Pittsburgh in the AFC Divisional Round on Sunday.
Pittsburgh has ripped off eight straight victories, scoring at least 24 points in each, and showed how explosive it can be in the first postseason game with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Bell all on the field. Roethlisberger burned Kansas City with five touchdown passes and last week tossed a pair of scoring strikes to Brown, who became the first player with two TD receptions of at least 50 yards in the first quarter of a playoff game. Bell set a franchise playoff record with 167 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns last week and shredded the Chiefs for 144 yards on 18 carries in Week 4. Pittsburgh's defense feasted on Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore, sacking him five times and forcing three turnovers.
While the home-field edge obviously should make a huge difference from the first meeting, both of Kansas City's losses since the rout at Pittsburgh game at Arrowhead Stadium - a pair of 19-17 setbacks to Tampa Bay and Tennessee.
Steelers are 12-3-3 ATS in their last 18 games in January and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win and are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
Packers + 5
The Green Bay Packers painted themselves into a corner earlier this season on the heels of a four-game losing streak, prompting Aaron Rodgers to claim the club could "run the table" in order to gain its eighth straight playoff appearance. Six victories to end the campaign and a convincing rout in the wild-card game have the Packers surging into the NFC Divisional Round for Sunday's date with the well-rested Dallas Cowboys.
Rodgers remains confident facing Dallas' 26th-ranked pass defense despite potentially playing without trusted wideout Jordy Nelson (NFL-leading 14 receiving TDs), who sustained a rib injury early in the wild-card game. Davante Adams set career highs with 75 catches, 997 yards and 12 touchdowns this season and had seven receptions for 117 yards and a score in a postseason encounter with Dallas two years ago. Cobb made eight catches for 116 yards in that playoff game versus the Cowboys and showed his ankle injury is a thing of the past with his performance last week, while his versatility to play in the slot or on the outside opens doors for promising rookie Geronimo Allison.
Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games. Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
My feeling here is this will be a close game with the Packers having a shot at the outright win, so take the points.
Andy Iskoe
Steelers at Chiefs
Play: Steelers
Reeling from a shocking 34-3 road loss preceding its Bye week, Pittsburgh responded with a rout of Kansas City in Week 5, winning 43-14 and easily covering as a 3 ½ point home favorite. The win improved the Steelers to 3-1 and dropped the Chiefs to 2-2. Since then the Chiefs have gone 10-2. The Steelers defeated the Jets the next week but then dropped 4 straight amid questions of whether this team could live up to pre season expectations. But the answer has been a resound “YES” as Pittsburgh has won 8 in row including last week’s Wild Card win over Miami. When that game was winding down lines for this game came out with the Steelers 2 ½ point road favorites. Then Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger showed up in the post game press conference in a walking boot and acknowledged he hurt his ankle on his last meaningful play in the game. Immediately money came in on the Chiefs even though Big Ben indicated without hesitation he would play in this game. Indeed he was listed as ‘probable’ on Monday’s injury reports. Thus it will not be a surprise if money flows back on the Steelers as the week progresses and Pittsburgh might go off as close to a FG road favorite. With Roethlisberger, RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown the Steelers have the classic trio of key offensive performers featured in most balanced and potent offenses. Indeed, Bell set a postseason franchise record with 167 rushing yards in their win over Miami. The Chiefs are another fundamentally sound team that runs the football well and does not commit turnovers. Yet the Steelers have shown those same characteristics this season. Statistically, Pittsburgh has several key edges including a +32 yards per game differential compared to the Chiefs who are -26 ypg. The Steelers also have edges in yards per play differential, offensive yards per rush, defensive yards per rush and, in a key statistics, allow 1.2 fewer yards per pass completion. The Chiefs won 5 of 6 and 10 of 12 to close the regular season. But no team has a longer current winning streak than the 8 in a row won by the Steelers. With one of the NFL’s best offenses and a defense that has also performed much better than is generally recognized the Steelers have a team capable of winning at New England next week. That’s if they get by Kansas City this week. The Chiefs have solid special teams and an electric kick returner, Tyreek Hill. But that should not be enough to offset the red hot Steelers who are playing at a championship level on both sides of the football. The call is for Pittsburgh to win straight up.
Buster Sports
Minnesota at Chicago
Play: Chicago -123
Tonight the Red Hot Minnesota Wild go to Chicago to take on the Blackhawks as the top 2 teams in the Western Conference face each other for the first time this year. Minnesota has been the hottest team in the NHL winning 16 out of their last 18 contests but come into Chicago after playing last night in Dallas. This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights which should give the rested Blackhawks the advantage tonight. This will be Chicago's second game in 5 days. HC Joel Quenneville is going to be some ugly as Chicago took a bad beatdown on Friday night losing 6-0 to Washington. Knowing Quenneville like we do practice yesterday had to be brutal for the Hawks. We see Chicago come out with a purpose tonight especially since Minnesota beat the Blackhawks in all 5 regular season games last year. Revenge will be sweet as the Blackhawks hand the Wild a rare loss tonight at the United Center.
Oskeim Sports
Green Bay at Dallas
Play: Dallas -5
Green Bay has won seven straight games, including last week's impressive victory over the Giants in the Wild Card Round. That success has garnered the attention of the betting public as the Packers are the most popular underdog in the Divisional Round. The Packers are certainly playing well, but they have also been the beneficiary of positive variance during their 7-game winning streak.
Over its last seven games, Green Bay has just one giveaway (Week 13 vs. Houston), while recovering six of the seven fumbles it forced during that span. The Packers have also intercepted eleven passes over their last seven games, all of which leads to a ridiculous +16 turnover differential! Let's also note that Green Bay's last seven wins came against six of the 12 teams ranked lowest in offensive touchdowns per game.
The Cowboys' potent ground attack behind Ezekiel Elliott, who is averaging 108.7 rush yards per game this season, should have success against a subpar Green Bay defense that is yielding 4.5 yards per rush attempt since Week Six. The Packers are also allowing 3.0 yards before contact per rush play (25th in the NFL), while Elliott is averaging 3.1 yards before contact per rush attempt.
Finally, the loss of wide receiver Jordy Nelson cannot be overstated. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 80.4% of his passes thrown to Nelson during the Packers' current seven-game winning streak.