Bruce Marshall
Capitals -1.5 +138
The Caps have been scoring goals in bunches, tallying four goals or more in five of their last six games and five goals in four of six. Which is a scary matchup for the Flyers, who have been leaking goals all season but especially their last three games, conceding 14.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Sunday is in college basketball, as I take a look at this game in Columbus, where the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Michigan State Spartans.
For whatever reason, bookies have made the struggling Buckeyes - who are 0-4 in conference play - the favorite in this game. I don't see why, and will take advantage with the value on league-leading Michigan State.
The Spartans, who opened the campaign 4-4, are a much better basketball team, even with its freshman-heavy roster. Coach Tom Izzo has a deep, talented roster, led by Columbus-area native Nick Ward, who will enjoy this homecoming today.
Ward has arguable been the Spartans' best player since Big 10 play opened, averaging 14.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per conference game.
The supporting cast makes up a physical team that is playing well defensively of late, and one that pushes the ball in transition.
The Spartans will be too much today, and win this game outright.
1* MICHIGAN STATE
Brad Wilton
The Explorers are playing their best ball of the season to date, as they head back to Philly with 3 straight conference wins under their belt. OK, beating St. Louis and Duquesne may not be all that impressive, but winning earlier this week in Kingston against the previously unbeaten at home Rhode Island Rams, 87-75 qualifies as a "quality" victory.
Now La Salle faces a George Washington team that has won just once in their last 5 games, and have also dropped 3 of their last 4 against the spread.
Major payback in store, as the Colonials didn't call off the dogs the last time these schools met down in D.C. as G-Dub pounded the Explorers, 90-50 last February!
The favorite in this series stands at 20-6 against the spread, and today the favorite happens to be the right side of this game.
La Salle earns payback in a comfortable home win this Sunday afternoon.
4* LA SALLE
Chris Jordan
I've got a bonus free play for tonight, as I look at this UFC featherweight matchup between Yair Rodriguez and BJ Penn. It's a hefty price, but as one UFC-insider told me yesterday, Penn doesn't stand a chance "unless (his coach) Greg Jackson is Jesus Christ."
Penn hasn't won a fight since 2010, and now he steps into the octagon against a kid whose star is on the rise?
I suppose Penn's experience in jiu jitsu would give Rodriguez a problem on the mat, but I don't know if he can get the younger, stronger fighter to the ground.
Rodriguez still hasn’t suffered a loss in the UFC, and this isn't going to be the match he does. On the contrary, this should be the match that retires Penn once and for all.
And if that price is too high for you, consider taking Joe Lauzon (-120) over Marcin Held inthe lightweight bout.
5* YAIR RODRIGUEZ
Eric Schroeder
My free play for Sunday is on the same game I love the total, as I'm giving you the Green Bay Packers plus the points.
I know Aaron Rodgers will be without his top target, Jordy Nelson, but that isn't going to stop him from coming in with plenty of confidence. Rodgers was unbeatable on a seven-game run that vaulted Green Bay to the divisional round, where the Packers were dominating last week in the wild-card round against the New York Giants.
Now, Rodgers returns to Dallas for the first time since winning his only Super Bowl, following the 2010 season. There is no way he lets this one get too far out of hand, and will have the Packers in the hunt the entire time.
Look for this one to come down to the end, with the outright winner being the team holding the ball last.
2* PACKERS
Brandon Lee
Georgia Tech vs. NC State
Play: NC State -7½
I have no problem laying this big number on the Wolfpack at home. NC State is a perfect 10-0 at home this season and we know we are going to get a big time effort from them in this one, as they come in off back-to-back road losses. Last time the Wolfpack hosted a team in conference play, they laid a beating on Virginia Tech in a 104-78 win. Georgia Tech comes in off a 75-63 upset win at home over Clemson as a 10 point dog and are primed for a letdown and are just 1-3 in road games this year. Yellow Jackets are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off a home win by 10 or more, while the Wolfpack are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off an upset loss as a favorites.
Ray Monohan
Pistons vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +1½
The Lakers welcome in the Pistons on Sunday night and the home team plus the points has value.
The Pistons have really struggled when it comes to playing inside the Staples Center. They have gone 0-6 ATS in their last 6 trips to Los Angeles, and this tough west coast road trip they're currently on doesn't get easier on them.
Injuries also play a role here as the Pistons are without some key guys. They're banged up and with all the travel certainly have their minds set on heading home, which really puts them in a look ahead spot here.
Some trends to note. Pistons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
This is a nice spot for the Lakers to really push the tempo on Detroit and cause a lot of problems for them.
Matt Josephs
Missouri State vs. Loyola-Chicago
Play: Missouri State +4½
Loyola Chicago has lost four of their last six games entering Sunday's tilt with Missouri State. They are coming off a 12 point loss at Wichita State and have already lost at home to Illinois State. The Ramblers feature Milton Doyle who is on of the best scorers in the Missouri Valley, but he has little help around him. Missouri State has won four of their last six including a victory at UNI. They lost by three at Illinois State and do it with more balance then their opponent. The Bears have been an underdog four times and have covered three times. The road team has outright won this game three of the last four meetings.
Frank Jordan
New York vs. Toronto
Play: Toronto -9.5
The Knicks and Raptors are in the same division, but in different positions as Toronto is 23-13 in first place and New York is in third place at 18-22 8.5 games back and would be further down if not for Philadelphia and Brooklyn. New York is 1-4 in division play and Toronto is a perfect 7-0 in division games. Toronto is 14-6 at home and 15-5 in conference play. New York is 6-14 on the road and 10-13 in conference play. The Knicks have lost four in a row in division match ups after winning their first game including a loss to Toronto in November in Toronto 118-107 and their last divisional game they lost at Philadelphia by a point as the Knicks gave up buzzer beater. Look for Toronto to roll past the Knicks once again as the Knicks are just 2-8 in their last 10 games and poor on the road with the Raptors winning by double digits behind a big game from DeRozan who plays well against the New York in his career and in their first match up dumped in 33 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS -4½ over Green Bay
The Packers have won seven games in a row after disposing of the Giants in a 38-13 win last Sunday at Lambeau Field. That result may look lopsided on paper but had a break or two gone the Giants way, the outcome may have been quite different. The big play getting all the headlines was a 42-yard prayer that landed in the arms of Packers receiver Randall Cobb in the end zone to end the first half. We read this week that Rodgers has “perfected” the Hail Mary, which is ridiculous. We often preach that most of these games come down to “in-game variance” and that play was a prime example. Odell Beckham Jr. dropping at least two key passes that were right in his arms is another example. It's a good thing this game kicks off at 4:40 PM EST this afternoon because if they waited any longer, Aaron Rodgers might walk on water. Don't get us wrong, Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league but he is only one man. He cannot block, run, catch or play defense. Each one of those areas is a concern for Green Bay coming into this game. The Packers rank 15th in sacks allowed which is tied with the Jets and Buccaneers and it’s not impressive company. Green Bay's running game ranks 20th and it finished the regular season 22nd in total defense. The Packers recent run and Rodgers' pedigree has the Packers getting a little too much credit here.
The Cowboys finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, which was tops in the NFC. Dallas locked up their spot after Week 15, which was the last time it played a meaningful down of football. We've heard the case against the Cowboys. Their 26th ranked pass defense will get shredded by Rodgers who is out for 'revenge' after a Week 5 loss to Dallas and who is playing at another level right now. We're not buying it. The Cowboys dominated the Packers in that first meeting and we're not sure what's changed. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott has only gotten better with an entire season of play under his belt. This is a “what have you done for me lately” league and with the Cowboys coming off a bye after sitting their starters in Week 17, we can understand the hesitation to back them here. It's much easier to lay your hard earned dollars down on a proven commodity like Aaron Rodgers over an unknown one in the playoffs in Dak Prescott. We're not concerned because Dak has been thrown into pressure situations all season long, he’s been under the immense media spotlight and he’s risen to the occasion every single time. Unlike the Pack, the Cowboys can run the ball, which provides them with the ability to sustain long drives and keep the clock moving while keeping Rodgers on the sidelines in the process. Green Bay cannot run the ball at all, which means when they do strike, it’ll likely be quick strikes, thus forcing their defense back on the field. Figure Green Bay’s defense to be on the field a whole lot more than the ‘Boys defense and by the fourth quarter, that figures to take a big toll. This market has had a hard time all season buying the Cowboys great success and they keep proving tghe market wrong. We expect that to continue here.
KANSAS CITY -3 over Pittsburgh
Back in Week 4 in Pittsburgh on a Sunday night in prime time, the Steelers just went nuts on the Chiefs. They passed for 300 yards and five touchdowns and ran for 151 yards in Le'Veon Bell's first game back from suspension. Since losing to the Cowboys in Week 10, the Steelers have been racking up the wins with at least 24 points per game and usually holding opponents to only two touchdowns or fewer. Indeed, it would be easy to make a case for the Steelers, especially when considering our disdain for Andy Reid and Alex Smith but value is value and after considering all the angles, we must conclude that the Chiefs are underpriced. Though by no means a certainty, four of the last five years have seen one home team lose in this round and now the Chiefs are not even getting the standard three points for home field. There are other things at work here too.
While Le'Veon Bell is absolutely a beast, Tyreek Hill has become a much bigger factor now because he does everything. Hill is as good as anyone right now and he can score or pick up big yardage during kicks, out of the backfield or on a short pitch and catch. Remember, the Chiefs have only lost twice since getting whacked in Pittsburgh and both losses were by just two points. K.C. also went into Atlanta and defeated the Falcons.
Andy Reid may have us scratching our heads during this game once or twice but Mike Tomlin WILL have us scratching our heads for sure. We may as well call Tomlin “The Fourth Down Roulette Wheel”. Not even Andy Reid makes more baffling fourth down choices than this man. Tomlin also goes for two points more than any man on the planet and he’s mismanaged that in the playoffs before when a missed two-pointer allowed the Bengals to come all the way back from 15 down. As always, some other moron team comes drooling along to make the Steelers look good when what they really deserve to be thrown into a trash compactor and that team this year was the Dolphins. Then there’s Big Ben, who ends every season with a playoff loss because half his vital organs and joints have stopped working by now and this year is no different. Roethlisberger will get hit and knocked down before trotting his dazed ass back out onto the field to throw the inevitable, decisive interception. That’s the Steelers for you and they are also a team that does not travel well. When the Steelers are forced out of their region or comfort zone, they just aren’t the same team. Pittsburgh responds well to being at home but playing in hostile environments when the crowd hates you is a different animal and we don’t trust the Steelers for a second in that regard.
Let’s also not forget about Andy Reid’s 19-2 record off a bye. That’s significant. Only Bill Belichick is in the same ballpark so give Reid an extra week to prepare and the proof is in the pudding that the chances of his team winning are far greater than losing. In the playoffs, home teams win often. This year, the host is 6-0 so far but this host is priced like the game is being played on a neutral field. Arrowhead is an extremely difficult venue to play in for visiting teams and we’re almost sure that Alex Smith, Andy Reid and the rest of the Chiefs will make far fewer mistakes than the Steelers. If the game is decided by turnovers, we love our chances even more.
SPORTS WAGERS
N. IOWA -6½ over Drake
It actually appears that the sportsbooks are giving away money here but don’t get caught into taking the bait. We’ll break it down for you. Northern Iowa is in dead last in the Missouri Valley with a conference mark of 0-5. The Panthers are a mere 5-11 overall too. To make matters worse for the Panthers, their best player Jeremy Morgan is listed as doubtful for this one. Morgan was the preseason MVC player of the year and leads the Panthers in scoring with an average of 16 a game. The next highest scorer is averaging just nine a game. NIU has dropped seven straight and has just one lousy cover over its past 13 games. This is a team that the market understandably is not anxious to get behind, especially when spotting points.
Meanwhile, Drake has been a cash cow lately by covering six of its last seven games. The Bulldogs are off to a 3-2 start in league play. Since conference play began, Drake has looked damn good. The squad kicked off the campaign with a win over Loyola-Illinois before dropping road contests to Southern Illinois and Wichita State. Since then, the team has won back-to-back contests against Evansville and Indiana State, both by double-digits. In their last four wins, the ‘Dogs have averaged 94.5 points per game while shooting over 50 percent from the floor.
What we have here is one team that has covered six of seven getting significant points from a team that is 0-5 in the conference and that has one cover in its past 13 games. Northern Iowa very simply looks like a weak bet and certainly an unappealing one but that’s the best time to jump in. Buy-low, sell high is in play here and we also promise you that the odds makers are fully aware that Morgan is out and that that the Panthers haven’t won a game since December 10. The odds makers did not overlook anything and did not make an error when posting this number. The line says Northern Iowa will win and cover and that has more influence on us than any stat you’ll find on paper.
SPORTS WAGERS
ANAHEIM -1½ +193 over St. Louis
This is the first meeting of the year between these two so there really isn’t any bad blood brewing yet but there are some convincing arguments to get behind the Ducks here and it starts with the goaltenders. Jake Allen had the day off yesterday when the Blue Notes defeated San Jose, 4-0 but Allen will be back where he doesn’t belong today, that being in the starter’s role. Allen has been pulled three times in his last five starts. He was yanked for a second straight game Thursday night after he allowed three goals on 15 shots. Allen has five wins in 15 road starts. His road save percentage is .882, which is dead last in the NHL among qualified starters.
By contrast, John Gibson is on fire. Gibson has posted save percentages of .971, 1.000, .944, 1.000 and .944 in five of his last six starts. Overall, Anaheim has allowed a mere five goals against over its last six games! That bodes well here because St. Louis has fired away 26, 22, 17, 22 and 23 shots on net respectively in their last five games. Give a big edge to the Ducks in goal and in current form.
Both teams will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs but here’s what sticks out to us. The Blues played Los Angeles and San Jose over that span while the Ducks barely broke a sweat in two victories over Arizona and Colorado. Finally, St. Louis got taken out by San Jose in last year’s playoffs. The Sharks did a number on the Blues by beating them in six games but the last two games of that series were blowout wins by the Sharks by scores of 6-2 and 5-2. San Jose also had a 4-0 win in St. Louis during that same series. St. Louis was a motivated team last night that was intent on sending back a message and they accomplished that. The Blues figure to be so much more spent here and perhaps less interested too. If you are not 100% against the Ducks, trouble will follow and that’s precisely how we see this game going down.
Tennis Insiders
Pablo Cuevas vs. Diego Schwartzman
Pick: Pablo Cuevas
This will be the fourth meeting, with Schwartzman holding a 2-1 head-to-head lead. Their only meeting on hard court (Antwerp, 2016) was a victory for Schwartzman, but Cuevas had set points and really fell apart after losing the tiebreaker 10-8. That tournament was towards the latter end of the season, and Schwartzman would go on to reach the final. Cuevas has suffered some narrow defeats, including in Sydney this week against Gilles Muller (6-7/4-6). Muller would go on to win the title. He's undervalued on hard courts, his preferrence for clay leaving oddsmakers undecided on his ability. He has the weapons to beat Schwartzman, big serve & forehand backed up by a beautiful one-handed backhand. Schwartzman is a fantastic mover & can grind from the baseline, but his lack of wingspan could be the key to this one. Cuevas has won more second serve points in two of the three meetings, and there's major doubts about Schwartzman's fitness, he collapsed while leading two sets to one against John Millman in the first round here last year. He's 0-2 when pushed to a deciding fifth set, and Cuevas firepower & ability to exchange from the back of the court should give him the edge in this match
Wunderdog
Detroit @ Los Angeles
Pick: Detroit -1.5
Two teams that have struggled defensively recently will battle at Staples Center with Detroit coming off a loss at Utah on Friday and the Lakers a 113-97 loss to the Clippers yesterday. The Pistons shot only 39.5 percent in the loss to the Jazz, which finished with a .538 shooting percentage. The Clippers shot 52 percent against the Lakers, who lost their third straight after also getting blown out against San Antonio and Portland. The Pistons won the first meeting 111-91 on Dec. 6, and they're playing the final game of a five-game road trip. The Lakers have allowed an average of 118.3 points their last three contests, which gives Detroit a chance to bounce back from Friday's performance, and it is still a small favorite in this matchup.