Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, January 1st, 2017

Alan Harris

Cleveland / Pittsburgh Under 44

Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet when the Cleveland Browns hit the road to take on the Steelers at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA on Sunday afternoon. The Browns have posted a 4-8 record to the under in their last twelve games where they were listed as an underdog of 3-9 points and they have gone just 6-11 to the under in their last seventeen games when playing an AFC North Division rival. They are also an awful 2-15 to the under when playing a team with a winning record and they have stayed under the number in ten of their last eleven games played in the last four weeks of the season. The Steelers have been an under team as well in the spot they are in here on Sunday as they have gone 5-10 to the under in their fifteen games here in 2016 and they are 3-8 to the under in their last eleven games versus a team from the AFC. They have also gone 3-13 to the under when facing a team with a losing record and they have gone under the total in seven of their last ten games following a win over a division rival. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone a perfect 4-0 to the under in their last four head-to-head meetings going back to the 2014 season and that's where we'll have our play as we are expecting both teams, especially the Browns, to have trouble moving the ball with any consistency on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh.

Stephen Nover

Bears vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings -5

Even though they are out of the playoffs the Vikings still have a very good defense and strong home field advantage. I can't see Matt Barkley doing much here. Barkley has been exposed as the third-stringer he is during the past couple of weeks throwing eight interceptions during this span. The Bears have committed nine turnovers in their last two games with no takeaways. Barkley is going to struggle against a Minnesota defense that gives up the second-fewest yards in the NFL and has star safety Harrison Smith back from injury. Barkley has never faced a defense this good on the road. The Vikings have revenge from a 20-10 Week 8 loss on Monday night to the Bears. Fiery Mike Zimmer wants to end the year on a positive note. So Minnesota will be properly motivated. The Bears have been at their worst on the road going 0-7 while allowing an average of 26.7 points and 372.4 yards a game. Minnesota has covered eight of the last 10 times when facing a sub .500 foe and has also covered 75 percent of its past 28 home games. Sam Bradford has the highest completion percentage in the league. The Vikings rank last in rushing, but should be able to run better than they have against a Bears defense that has permitted triple digits on the ground the past six games and probably will be without promising rookie linebacker Leonard Floyd, who suffered a concussion last week. The Bears already are down several key defenders, including nose tackle Eddie Goldman and linebacker Danny Trevathan.

Randall The Handle

BEST BETS

Texans (9-6) at Titans (8-7)

Someone had to win this lousy division. The Titans were in position to at least have this game decide it, but that was before they laid an egg in Jacksonville last week. Houston’s ugly win over Cincinnati sealed the deal and the Texans will head to the playoffs as a No. 4 seed. Sitting 30th in passing and 29th in scoring, it is puzzling as to how this Houston bunch won nine games. A 5-0 division record was key, but with nothing to play for before hosting next week’s wild-card game, the perfect record within the AFC South is set to be tarnished. Yes, Marcus Mariota is out and Matt Cassell will start for the home team. But Cassell is a seasoned veteran that loses nothing to an inexperienced Tom Savage. Revenge-minded Titans will play hard to match Houston at 9-7 while the visitor will rest and mend key guys. TAKING: TITANS –3

Bills (7-8 ) at Jets (4-11)

Rex Ryan is out. Anthony Lynn is in. QB Tyrod Taylor is out. QB EJ Manuel is in. Under the current climate in Buffalo — and we don’t mean weather-wise — both changes figure to be positives for this finale. Lynn is likely to have the interim tag removed soon after the season concludes. He brings strong credentials to the position and is ready to change the laid-back culture in Buffalo that Rex allowed. The Bills will be motivated here, not only in support of Lynn — who improved the offence after replacing Greg Roman mid-season — but also to avenge an earlier loss to this putrid Jets team. It shouldn’t be difficult as the Jets have put forth the lamest of efforts this past month, surrendering 133 in past four games. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start here and that should provide opportunities for the hungrier opponent. TAKING: BILLS –3½

Raiders (12-3) at Broncos (8-7)

Derek Carr’s injury was a devastating blow to the Raiders, but teams have a way of rebounding from adversity, most notably in the game immediately following the hardship. Matt McGloin will take the helm and while the youngster may have limitations, it’s not exactly like the Broncos have some prolific offence worth fearing. Gary Kubiak claims that he’ll be auditioning both of his young quarterbacks in this game. Meanwhile, the Raiders will be working hard as a win claims the AFC West and a possible No. 1 seed in their conference. Stopping McGloin will not be the trick to winning this game for Denver as Oakland’s ground game should be more of a concern. The Raiders have quietly become a strong rushing team, ranking fifth overall, and that should serve them well against Denver’s 29th-ranked stop unit. Broncos are drained, dejected and dispassionate. TAKING: RAIDERS +1

THE REST

Ravens (8-7) at Bengals (5-9-1)

You simply cannot lay points with the Bengals when they are missing both A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. Cincinnati can’t find the end zone without those guys. That is particularly evident in the final 30 minutes of games where the Bengals have scored just 10 second half points over the past three weeks including a lone field goal vs. Cleveland. The red zone has become the dead zone and no immediate fix is in order. Both teams will miss the playoffs, but the Ravens always try hard for John Harbaugh. That especially holds true against AFC North opponents where Baltimore has covered eight straight. Prefer the points offered to the sturdier club. TAKING: RAVENS +1

Giants (10-5) at Redskins (8-6-1)

The simple philosophy here is that the Redskins need the game while the Giants are locked into their playoff spot and that the G-Men will rest up as a result. That same sentiment is reflected in the line as Washington -7½ is clearly an inflated line to accommodate the underlying sentiment. However, it’s rarely that simple, especially when the Giants come off a stinker 10 days ago in a loss to the Eagles. Rookie head coach Ben McAdoo doesn’t want his guys entering the post-season on a downer, so don’t expect his club to roll over and play dead here. Good defence taking this many points sways us to visitor. TAKING: GIANTS +7½

Jaguars (3-12) at Colts (7-8 )

This one would be a dud even if there were playoff implications. Now with both teams eliminated from post-season play, this game is even duddier, if there is such a word. However, would rather roll the dice with Jacksonville right now after it cut loose its inept coach and the reins were loosened in last week’s lopsided win over Tennessee. The Jags have an underrated defence (fourth overall, third vs. pass) and the offence perked up last week. The same can’t be said for the Colts who employ a decent quarterback, one good receiver and very little after that. Indy also struggling on its own turf this season with a disappointing 3-4 mark. TAKING: JAGUARS +4½

Cowboys (13-2) at Eagles (6-9)

Cowboys sending out confusing messages after trouncing Detroit on Monday night despite being locked in as the NFC’s top seed prior to kickoff. But we expect the ’Boys to really dumb it down here. QB Dak Prescott may work a quarter or so, but with Dallas playing it smart, will be relieved by Mark Sanchez, not Tony Romo. Stud rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott will not see much action, if any. The Cowboys have earned this rest and they’ll take full advantage. The Eagles are on a 10-day break after beating the Giants and would love to end the year on a good note in front of loyal fans. TAKING: EAGLES –3½

Bears (3-12) at Vikings (7-8 )

Giving away points with a Minnesota team that has hit the skids while also facing a mutiny from its defence is certainly unappealing. But so is backing a Chicago team that is 0-7 on the road this season, losing by an average score of 26-15. Teams often experience a jump start from unproven quarterbacks, but once defensive coordinators are able to review film, a short circuit occurs as it has with Matt Barkley after the career backup threw five interceptions versus Washington last week. It won’t get easier here against a Minnesota defence that is best when safety Harrison Smith is on the field and he returns this week. Home side is the lesser evil. TAKING: VIKINGS –5½

Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (8-7)

Mathematically, Tampa Bay can still make the playoffs but there’s a better chance of Elvis Presley headlining the half-time show of the Super Bowl. The Bucs know this, but that doesn’t mean they won’t put forth a best effort. The Buccaneers tasted winning for a few weeks and while the playoffs slipped away recently, the arrow is still pointing up. Same can’t be said of downtrodden Panthers, a team that cannot wait for the season to end so that they figure out what went wrong and hopefully push the reset button. Carolina has dropped six of eight road games and are 2-8-1 vs. spread in previous 11 away. Also, Cam Newton is iffy for this one. TAKING: BUCCANEERS –4½

Browns (1-14) at Steelers (10-5)

That’s not the wind coming off of Lake Erie. That’s a collective sigh of relief after the Browns dodged the infamy of a 0-16 season with their victory over the Chargers last week. Don’t expect a repeat performance even with the current situations that both teams are in. The Steelers may rest starters in preparation for their coming wild-card game, but Cleveland’s defence is abysmal and its offence isn’t much better. The Brownies can’t protect their quarterbacks as concussed RG3 likely to miss, only to be replaced by recently concussed Cody Kessler. Giving up an outlandish 62 sacks this season is the costly culprit. The deflated line suggests Pittsburgh’s disinterest. Even so, they should still cover. TAKING: STEELERS –6

Saints (7-8 ) at Falcons (10-5)

An Atlanta victory here secures the coveted No. 2 seed in the NFC, but we doubt it comes easily. Atlanta’s defence is the concern. They’ve been able to mask this area with a strong offence, but the Saints won’t fall prey to that. New Orleans already carved up this divisional opponent in earlier meeting when QB Drew Brees threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-32 shootout win. Brees is in a groove right now after racking up 79 points during past two games and against better defences than this one. While Matt Ryan has had a great year, Brees’ number are superior. Despite stakes, Saints taking a full touchdown is warranted. TAKING: SAINTS +7

Patriots (13-2) at Dolphins (10-5)

Oddly, the Patriots need to win this game to secure home field throughout the AFC playoff bracket. With Oakland being the team that can bump them and the Raiders not playing until later in the day at Denver, New England will have to press on the gas pedal here. Had the Dolphins not been playoff-bound as well, we could see them playing spoiler here. But the Fish have bigger things to fry as they prepare for a road playoff game next week and they can ill afford to risk some of their banged-up offensive players. Yes, this is a lot of points to give away but a top-notch team facing a preoccupied host dictates our choice. TAKING: PATRIOTS –9½

Cardinals (6-8 ) at Rams (4-11)

You can take Jared Goff because we’re not. Maybe it’s not all his fault after being assigned this useless offence but the fact remains that the Rams are 0-6 both straight up and vs. the spread since the rookie QB has taken over. Just look at last week’s line to see how bad things are in L.A. as Goff threw for just 90 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions to a Niners’ teams that had lost 13 straight. The Cardinals season went south a while ago but at least there is some firepower in their lineup as displayed in a 34-31 at Seattle last week. Such ability should avenge an embarrassing loss to these Rams in earlier meet. TAKING: CARDINALS –6

Chiefs (11-4) at Chargers (5-10)

Chiefs won the first encounter when they needed 17 fourth-quarter points to tie before winning in overtime. As if that isn’t incentive enough for the Chargers, perhaps the embarrassment of losing to Cleveland last week is. Kansas City will be going full tilt here as it could capture the AFC West with a win, if Oakland were to lose to Denver. Even so, K.C. is not finding the end zone through conventional means these days and relying on special teams or defence for majors is a risky route to take when spotting divisional road points. Chargers are beat up but Philip Rivers should be loose here and that could spell trouble. TAKING: CHARGERS +5½

Seahawks (9-5) at 49ers (2-13)

There is a problem handicapping this one. If Atlanta defeats New Orleans, Seattle can’t really improve its playoff position and could pull some starters. Despite the huge gap separating these two teams, not so sure we want to be spotting double-digit road points under such conditions. It wouldn’t surprise us to see a conservative effort by the visitor as the Seahawks’ offensive line has struggled and risking QB Russell Wilson before the playoffs wouldn’t be wise. Expect a lot of running by the host, especially against a porous 49ers’ run defence. The back door is wide open here and it helps that double-digit road faves have just 28 covers in previous 68 attempts. TAKING: 49ERS +10

Packers (9-6) at Lions (6-9)

Momentum definitely favours visiting Packers here as they ride a five-game winning streak, but with all that’s on the line for this flexed Sunday nighter, the feisty Lions cannot be ignored. After winning seven of eight, Detroit losing road games to the Giants and Cowboys the past two weeks is nothing to be ashamed of. Now the Leos return home where they are 6-1 this season (5-2 ATS) and where they’ve won and covered both times placed as home underdogs. Lions could also get a needed boost to their secondary if CB Darius Slay is able to play after missing last week’s loss to Dallas. Detroit’s stronger defence and home points offered point us that way. TAKING: LIONS +3½

SPORTS WAGERS

Dallas +4½ over PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles were one of the popular picks to kick off Week 16. Heavy action came in on Philly last Thursday, as it moved from pooch to betting favorite over the Giants. The Eagles got the win 24-19 but we were not impressed. We've been focusing on teams coming off these prime time games all season and this Eagles team will be no exception. If you watched that game, then you’re aware the Eagles were fortunate to escape with the W. Quarterback Carson Wentz was outgunned by Giants QB Eli Manning by over 200 yards in the air but Philly won the turnover battle 3-0, which included a 34-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Eagles could not put together a decent drive the entire game and was forced to rely on big plays. Both of their offensive touchdowns were over 25 yards. Philly made it into the red zone just once and failed to score a major. The Eagles are in a free fall after winning just one of their last six games. We didn't see anything last week to change that. We also like that the Eagles won a game against a “motivated” opponent because it will allow us to take back an inflated price with the Cowboys.

The Cowboys threw some shade on the popular public opinion that they had “nothing” to play for with a 42-21 home win over the Lions on Monday Night Football. Dallas cannot improve its number one status in the NFC but we're not ready to write this game in Philly off as a loss. Resting starters is one of the most overrated angles in the NFL. Besides, the Cowboys second stringers that include Tony Romo, might be better than the Eagles first stringers. Yeah, the Cowboys might rest some of their starters but we say, “bring it on” because the reserves are chomping at the bit to contribute to this dream season. The points here are delicious.

Oakland +113 over DENVER

The Raiders were dealt a terrible hand when quarterback Derek Carr left their Week 16 game with a broken leg. Oakland has clinched a playoff spot but can still improve their playoff position with a little help from the Dolphins. If the Raiders want a bye, they're going to have to fight off the Chiefs as well, who hold the tie breaker over them. While we don't want to dismiss the injury to Carr, we cannot ignore the overreaction to his injury. The truth is, Carr hasn't been himself since injuring his finger in Week 12. Oakland was a long ball team earlier this season but was forced to remove that aspect from its game over the last month. Carr struggled with his accuracy against the Bills and Chiefs when he was forcing throws that were five feet off target. A healthy Matt McGloin isn't the worst option for Oakland. McGloin has been in the system for four seasons, he knows the playbook and has started 13 games in his career. He's no Joe Montana but the guy can win a game or two, especially against a Broncos team that could have questionable motives to end the season.

Denver was embarrassed in Kansas City on Christmas Day. While the Broncos' bid to defend their Super Bowl Championship ended long before the clock hit 00:00, it was the way the game ended that has us questioning what will motivate them in Week 17. Typically, we like to come back on a team after they are humiliated in prime time but this week is different. Up 27-10 with less than two minutes to go, Kansas City decided to rub Denver's nose in the doo-doo with a “fat guy” touchdown. Lineman Donari Poe threw a two-yard TD pass to put KC up 33-10. It was a bush league call and the Chiefs' brass should have looked at the schedule before getting cute. A Denver loss to Oakland this Sunday would seal the AFC West for the Raiders. We're not suggesting the Broncos will throw the game, but we have to wonder if a few of these Broncs are thinking about how they can stick it to K.C. It's not often a team has the chance to royally screw with a division rival after getting unnecessarily embarrassed on national television.

While these guys are all professionals, it only takes a missed tackle or some broken coverage to swing a close game. Furthermore, backing these Broncos is like beating a dead horse. They are totally one dimensional and aren't really capable of scoring even if they wanted to. The Broncos' offense ranks 27th in the league and they haven't scored more than 10 points in their last three games. The Denver defense called out the offense after its home loss to the Patriots two weeks ago and the Broncos response was that pathetic performance in Kansas City. It is wishful thinking to suggest the Broncs locker room is 100 percent unified but even if it were, that would just mean a unanimous, unspoken agreement with the premise that the this game isn't all that important but sticking it to K.C. is.

Mike Anthony

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +1

Dalton can drop the ball right into the hands of his receivers when they are moving downfield. Dalton and Brandon LaFell have recently built quite the connection, and it's not going to end here. Cincinnati has been playing very tight games over the last 2 - tough game but at home crowd will be rowdy enough. There will be no way getting out of the nasty homefield of Cincinnati. their LBs have been primal in their attack mode for Cincinnati and will be yet again. Baltimore has not been able to defend the passing game of teams very well - and their 27 TDs given up by airwaves on the year is a huge problem to deal with on their end. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Alex Smart

Cowboys vs. Eagles
Play: Over 42½

There is nothing at stake and the game is virtually meaningless for both squads when the Cowboys (13-2) visit the Eagles (6-9) on Sunday . But I am expecting both teams to put some decent offensive numbers up here. Philly wants to leave this season, behind them , and give their angry faithful something to look forward to next season, so it will be a ballz to the wallz all out non conservative attack, against what could see alot of Cowboys defensive starters resting. I also expect to see formerly injured starter QB Tony Romo get reps today and for him to put some scores vs a Philly D, that is less than consistent. Plus it must be noted that All NFL games in where one team is off a Thursday game (Philadelphia) and the other team is off a Monday game (Dallas) have seen the over go 24-2 dating back 25 seasons. .

PHILADELPHIA is 13-3 OVER L/16 in home games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season, with a combined average of 58.2 ppg scored.

Marc Lawrence

Buffalo vs. New York
Play: new York +3½

Edges - Jets: Head coach Todd Bowles 5-1-1 ATS as a division underdog. Bills: 3-18 ATS with revenge following the Dolphins; and 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS away in season finales. With the Bills starting QB EJ Manuel, and head coach Rex Ryan having received his walking papers, we recommend a 1* play on the Jets.

Jimmy Boyd

Buffalo vs. New York
Play: new York +3½

As bad as New York looked last week, I think the value is with them as a home dog. It’s clearly not been the season the Jets were hoping for, but I expect them to play with a lot of pride in their home finale. They certainly don’t want to go into the offseason with another loss like they had last week against the Pats.

The bigger factor here is I just don’t trust this Bills team to show up. Not only did they fire their head coach and defensive coordinator with one week left. A move some thought came a bit too soon, given it was only Ryan’s second year on the job. They also stated that starting QB Tyrod Taylor won’t play. Not because he’s not healthy, but because they don’t want to risk paying his $30 million guarantee for next year if he were to suffer a serious injury.

I completely understand the move from a business perspective. However, I don’t think it’s one that is going to sit well with the rest of the players in the locker room. Don’t be surprised if the Bills have a long list of guys who sit this one out with a nagging injury. At the same time, I can't see those that do play being all that motivated to put forth a max effort.

It’s one of those games where you have to look at the motivation more than the statistics. The numbers here are going to be in favor of Buffalo. With that said, not having Taylor at QB is a big loss for the Bills. E.J. Manuel doesn’t pose near the threat on the ground and is no where close in terms of his passing ability. The Jets should be able to load the box and force Manuel to beat them with his arm. My guess is he won’t be up to the task.

Teddy Covers

Cowboys vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles -4

Make no mistake about it – this is a preseason game for the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is going to have their starters on the field early. But by halftime, expect most of those starters to be on the bench, avoiding injury. Tony Romo is expected to get his first playing time of the year behind center. But we can also expect a Mark Sanchez sighting.

And every Cowboy with a hangnail is going to be sitting out as well. Don’t expect to see the likes of Ronald Leary or Tyson Smith on the offensive line. CB Morris Claiborne isn’t expected to suit up, and the Cowboys defensive line could sit multiple guys, most notably both starting tackles. Jason Garrett is talking the talk about how he expects his team to compete – blah, blah, blah. It’s all coach-speak. This is a no-show game for a team that has already clinched.

That’s not the case for Philadelphia. The Eagles enacted their revenge for an early season loss against the Giants last week. They’ve got a first year coach and a first year quarterback – guys who we can expect to push the pedal to the metal right through the final gun. Philly played their guts out in a one point loss to Baltimore the previous week. They played their guts out in a last minute loss to Washington the week before. This team isn’t worried about resting starters and prepping for the playoffs. They’re worried about beating Dallas!

Philly’s loss to the Cowboys in October was as frustrating as it gets. The Eagles led by double digits in the fourth quarter but a 90 yard Dallas drive with the clock winding down sent the game to OT, and the Eagles offense never touched the ball in overtime – their D was completely gassed.

Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins, talking earlier in the week: “It was a game where we had a 10-point lead and let it slip. We went into overtime and didn't come out with the win. It was one of those games where we had to learn how to finish. It's just small plays here and there. Some of the plays they earned, as we go back and watch the tape. But there are a couple of plays here and there where we could have helped ourselves. That's one of those lessons that you learn." Expect some payback here!

Power Sports

Arizona vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles

With Arizona off a somewhat shocking win at Seattle and nothing to play for, they are prime fade material in this spot. I've always mantained that teams are at a disadvantage the week after playing the physical Seahawks and the numbers bear that out. In the case of the Cardinals, they blew all of a double digit lead in the fourth quarter, before the goat of the first matchup (kicker Chandler Catanzaro) won the game on the final play. (Catanzaro had missed the potential GW FG in the tie w/ Seattle earlier in the year). Making LW's result all the more surprising is that the Cards were just 1-5 SU and ATS on the road previously.

The Rams have now lost six straight games, failing to cover in all six opportunities. With their head coach already fired (finally!), this is a team in dire need of something positive heading into next season. Rookie QB Jared Goff has been cruelly failed by his defense. Remember that two of the Rams four wins this year came in games where they scored only nine points! (Both w/o Goff). Thankfully, here, they are facing an Arizona defense which has given up at least 23 points in seven of the last eight games. Last week saw Los Angeles suffer the ignominious distinction of losing to the 49ers twice. (SF is 0-13 vs. rest of the league). The game was decided on a late two-point conversion. I just can't see one team (Arizona) covering B2B division road games while the other (Rams) fails to cover B2B division home games.

Dwayne Bryant

Seahawks at 49ers
Play: Under 43

The San Francisco 49ers end their 2016 season the same way they started it -- at home against a division rival. The 49ers host the NFC West champion Seattle Seahawks on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET. I recommend a play on the UNDER.

The 49ers and Seahawks met in Seattle way back in Week 3. Seattle won that one 37-18, going way over the total of 42. I expect a much lower score this time around.

Seattle's offense has been notorious for disappearing on the road this season. The Seahawks average a healthy 28.4 points per game at home, but that dips to a dismal 14.6 points per game on the road. Seattle's road games have produced an average of just 33.6 points this season.

The 'Niners defense is awful, but they do play better at home. San Francisco has allowed a whopping 33.8 points per game on the road, but that number shrinks to 26.4 points per game allowed at home.

This has been an Under series. The last four in this series played by the bay have all gone Under. The average total points scored in those four games was just 25!

Based on all of the above, today's posted total looks way too high.

Buster Sports

Jaguars at Colts
Play: Over 47

The Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars will play on Sunday afternoon with absolutely nothing to play for but pride and auditions for jobs in the 2017 season. We will be going with the OVER 47 here as we see both teams treating this as a throwing free for all. The only reason this is not a premium play for us is that as in the preseason you never know if you can trust the information that is given to you. HC Pagano says he will be playing all his starters including Andrew Luck. We are going to believe that they will try to win, as there have been rumors about his job status in Indy. We do know that they will be trying to get RB Frank Gore his 36 yards for his ninth 1,000 yard season. As for Jacksonville they won their first game after firing Gus Bradley, a convincing 38-17 victory over Tennessee knocking out QB Marcus Mariota in the process. The Jags interim HC Doug Marrone will want to put on another good show for his bosses and try to get the victory. Bortles will be playing and the Jags will want to beat their division rivals. Jacksonville won the first game in England 30-27 and we see a similar result today.

Executive Sports

Texans at Titans
Play: Over 40

With nothing to play for, these teams will play loose. Defense will look like it's an all star game, and a lot of points should be scored today. Houston still needs their offense to prepare for the playoffs and get their timing down.

HOUSTON is 15-6 OVER vs. mistake prone teams 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons.

TENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER vs. poor passing defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.

TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER off a road loss over the last 2 seasons.

TENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Marco D'Angelo

Panthers at Bucs
Play: Over 46.5

Now that Tampa Bay has all but been eliminated from the playoff race (they need 9 different things to happen) this game is basically meaningless. In the final week or two of the season when you get two teams with nothing to play for I like to look at the over. Teams just don’t show up with defensive intensity with nothing to play for. I have always felt it takes more effort to play defense than offense. Offensive players are still trying to pad the stat sheets as many players have incentive bonuses in contracts. Carolina is ranked 27th in points allowed this season. I expect Tampa Bay to be motivated here as they can finish the season at 9-7 and that would really give this team something to build on for next season. I also believe that this Tampa Bay defense will give up points today as well as they are ranked 28th defensively in yards allowed per play at 6.1 and 26th in yards allowed at 370 a game. Finally one more stat backing the OVER here is the fact that over the last 3 seasons following a loss Carolina is a PERFECT 7-0 to the OVER if they are playing on the road. The average score in those 7 games was 59 total points a game. My numbers have 54 or more points being scored in this one.