Scott Spreitzer
New Orleans at Atlanta
Play: New Orleans +7
Atlanta has won the NFC South and they do have a chance to clinch a first round bye. But we believe they're a tad overvalued in this one. Drew Brees takes a back seat to no one, including Matt Ryan. His team is just 7-8 SU this season, but six of the losses came by one score and four losses came by a grand total of just nine points. That's how close the Saints are to being 11-4 and thinking about the postseason. Atlanta heads into this one just 4-3 SU at home this season with three of the wins coming against Arizona, Carolina, and San Francisco. The Falcons won the first meeting 45-32, but the score was a tad misleading, helped by a 90-yard pick-6 and a Saints' muffed punt inside their own 15-yard line, leading to another Falcon TD. We believe this one will be very close with the Saints hanging the number.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -6
The Cleveland Browns avoided the 0-16 season, but it took them to game 15 to do so, and they may be completely flat for this one. A bad team that is also flat is not a healthy situation. The Steelers have absolutely abused the Browns over the years, particularly at as Cleveland has not won in Pittsburgh since 2003. The Steelers are 12-0 SU over the time period and have won by an average of 14.3 points per game, so there's plenty to get it done in this one. The Browns have been punished on the road where they are 1-17 SU in their last 18 road games, having lost 12 in a row. They they have also lost 9 of the 12 by 11 points or more. The Browns have a woeful history in Pittsburgh, and on the road in general.
Joe Gavazzi
Giants at Redskins
Play: Giants +7
With need you bleed must be the theme of this divisional season closer that has been shifted to a 4:25 ET start. No way does the 7 point Washington favoritism reflect the difference between these teams. The Skins are 8-6 SU, the Giants 10-5 SU. The first meeting saw Washington record a victory of 29-27 as a 3 point underdog back on September 25th (outrushed 120-90 in that game). Though the Giants are locked into the No. 5 spot in the playoffs, they will be surely looking for some positive momentum after QB Manning tossed 3 INTs in a 24-19 loss at Philly last Thursday, A GAME IN WHICH THE NY’ERS OUTGAINED THEIR HOST 470-286. On the basis of NY’s far superior defense, 18/43 to 24/381, there is no way the Redskins deserve this level of favoritism. With need you bleed, as the Giants recapture momentum heading to the playoffs!
DAVE COKIN
RAPTORS VS. LAKERS
PLAY: RAPTORS -8.5
I want Toronto here. The Raptors have yet to lose three straight all season, and have only two in a row only three times. So this is a team that generally rebounds off a defeat. The important add here is that Toronto will be well rested, and this team has been a monster when fresh. The Raptors are 8-1/7-2 with two or more days rest, and that’s by a double digit margin on average. So they take care of business when they need to, and the Lakers are a team they will handle if they’re focused. Not a cheap price, but I’m willing to lay it with the Raptors.
Andy Iskoe
Saints / Falcons Over 57
Atlanta has won the NFC South and can earn the number two seed with a win. New Orleans has won two in a row and a win here would give the Saints their first non-losing season since 2013. Both teams have strong passing attacks and their running games have also flourished over the second half of the season. Atlanta won the first meeting 45-32 with the teams combining for 916 total yards. The Total suggests this should be another high scoring game. The Saints have topped 30 points 8 times this season and Atlanta has scored at least 30 points in 10 games. Sometimes the obvious makes sense. And although this is the highest Total of the season, 46 of 240 games have produced 57 or more total points. That works out to a shade under 20% of all games or, put another way, about 3 of every 16 games (i.e. a typcial week without Byes) would have gone OVER this Total.
Bruce Marshall
Eagles -5.5
The Eagles must have been listening to disgruntled callers on 610 WIP, as they played with verve last Thursday vs. the G-Men. And, with Dallas in town, the WIP callers will be talking all week about "Cowboy Hate" (a near-religion in the Delaware Valley). Jason Garrett won't care and will probably sub liberally, which means Tony Romo perhaps gets a test run at QB just in case he's needed in the playoffs. Whatever, don't expect to see much of Dak, Zeke, and other key Dallas cogs with top seed secure for NFC playoffs. Jim Schwartz's still-trying defense likely pins back its ears and goes after Romo (or Mark Sanchez), as the Eagles should be hellbent to avenge their earlier OT loss...even if it's against an under-strength Cowboy lineup.
Sleepyj
Boston College +10
I say it all the time...Winning on the road in CBB is very tough..Doesn't matter who you are and that was the case with Providence going into BC last week...Same thing again...Syracuse will head into BC and they are laying double digits....I could understand if the Orangemen were actually good, but Syracuse isn't all that special...Both of these teams are in the cellar of the ACC right now and BC actually has more impressive wins...This isn't the year for Syracuse and BC is off a nice win Vs. Providence...It will give them a extra boost of confidence coming into this one...PPG wise the line should be Syracuse -11.....That's just a raw number posted up by the books....These teams in BC are about even, but I would lean Syracuse having the better team by a very slim margin....Syracuse hasn't been very good this year on the road and the ATS record they have isn't very good either...Don't rule out BC winning this game outright...+10 is just fine for me here with the Eagles.
Tony George
Bears vs. Vikings
Play: Over 42½
A tale of two teams with high expectations this season who both ended up stinking it up, especially the Bears. Minny started out hot and faded, and the Bears had injury issues all year at QB, and also the secondary for the most part was hit and miss all year. Through 5 games Minny was one of the best teams in the NFL and they fell apart.
I have been impressed with how hard Chicago has played despite having nothing to play for, and Minnesota has simply imploded and their vaunted defense has been shredded recently, including last week, and Indy lit them up for 36 the week before. Chicago was a funnel to the end zone for the Redskins last week and while the Vikings have struggled on offense, they should find some numbers on the scoreboard at home this weekend and the Bears and QB Barkley should also be able to trade punches on the scoreboard well.
I expect some scoring here, the total is lower than I thought it would be, as I had 47 on power ratings for this game. Might surprise some, but I expect some offense in this game.
Dennis Macklin
Saints vs. Falcons
Play: Saints +8
The Falcon only need to win to clinch the No.2 seed in the NFC. The Falcons won the first go around 45-32 in Week III scoring five time in eight drives and getting a defensive score. The Saints defense in much improved since and with Atlanta also in a dome, Drew Brees production will not be as significantly altered as it is when he is on the road and outdoors. New Orleans 9-3 ATS L12 including 4-1 as a road dog this year. The Saints are playing for .500 which is barely a moral victory but with rumors flying that Payton could be headed to the Rams via trade, expect a top notch effort by the Saints.
Chip Chirimbes
Browns vs. Steelers
Play: Browns +6
This game is meaningless for the Steelers and other then pride they have no reason to play as they are 'locked' into their payoff position. Cleveland on the other hand has finally had a taste of victory and liked it. Many of the Browns player were in tears after their first win and they will actually play with a degree of pride.
Brandon Lee
Raiders vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -1½
I know Denver was just knocked out of the playoff race last week in their loss to the Chiefs and have absolutely nothing to play for in the finale, but I fully expect this team to show up and finish the season the right way. The big key here is they are facing a Raiders team that desperately needs to win this game to lock up the AFC West title and first round bye. Teams who are out of it, relish in these opportunities to play spoiler, especially when it's a hated rival like we have here. It's also huge that this game is at home, as players feel responsible to their home fans to show up. We also have a Raiders team that is playing their first game without starting quarterback Derek Carr, who broke his leg in last week's win over the Colts. Carr was playing at an MVP level and without him this team has no chance of a deep playoff run. That's a tough pill to swallow for this team, as they were riding such a wave of momentum. Carr covered up a really bad Raiders defense, that I believe is going to be exposed now that the offense won't be able to stay on the field.
Jack Jones
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles -5½
The Dallas Cowboys literally have nothing to play for this week. They wanted to stay sharp last week against the Lions, so they didn't rest their starters. But the reports are that they will rest their starters this week and give their backups the majority of the playing time. That's why we've seen this line move to the Eagles as 5.5-point favorites, and I don't think it's enough.
I like the fact that the Eagles haven't quit. Each of their last three games against the Redskins, Ravens and Giants have all gone right down to the wire, and they easily could have won all three. That's even more impressive when you consider that those three teams were all playing hard to try and make the playoffs, while the Eagles were simply playing for pride.
Now the Eagles are going to want revenge from an overtime loss in Dallas in their first meeting this season. They actually led that game by double-digits in the second half before losing in overtime. And getting them at home this time around should make all the difference.
The Eagles have been a great bet at home this season, going 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.0 points per game. They have even handled playoff-bound teams like the Steelers, Falcons and Giants in three of their victories, and they were the team that handed the Vikings their first loss following their 5-0 start. Their defense has been especially good at home, giving up just 15.9 points per game on the season.
The Cowboys have a plethora of injuries on defense. That is where guys are going to be rested the most. You know rookie QB Carson Wentz wants to finish the season the way he started it, which was red hot. And I think he'll have the opportunity to do just that by having one of his best games of the season. Even a healthy Dallas defense has given up 67.5% completions and 263 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Now they will be even worse off with backups getting most the playing time.
Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. Dallas is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games during the last two weeks of the regular season. And the Cowboys are on a short week here after playing on Monday, adding to the reasons to fade them. They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Dave Price
Panthers vs. Bucs
Play: Bucs -3½
Now that this line has been bet down to Tampa Bay -3.5, I think there's ample value and reasons to back the Bucs at home against the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. The Bucs still have an outside shot of making the playoffs. And they are going to be motivated to finish off the season with a winning record, which would be a solid reward for them in a nice bounce-back campaign this season. Do you really think the Carolina Panthers care about winning this game? They made the Super Bowl last year and just want this season to be over. That was evident in their 16-33 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week. If they were going to get up for a game, it would have been that one against the division leaders. Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen are dealing with injuries on offense, and the O-Line has been a mess due to all the injuries. On defense, they are still without Luke Kuechly, and DE Derrick Johnson and S Tre Boston are also out. The Bucs are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 home games, outscoring the Bears, Seahawks and Saints a combined 66-26. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons. The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
ASA
Giants vs. Redskins
Play: Giants +9
The Giants have given every indication they plan and playing this game to win despite being locked into the 5th playoff seed. They are coming off a loss @ Philly 24-19 but completely outplayed the Eagles with a +182 yardage edge. NY does not want to enter the playoffs of two straight losses. Eli Manning will play and defensive leader Landon Collins stated they are approaching is as if it were a playoff game. If that’s the case, this line is way off. It’s also a revenger for the Giants who lost 29-27 at home despite outgaining the Skins. We realize Washington is in must win mode but simply playing those teams is often a losing proposition. Especially if the line has been adjusted which it has here. These two met earlier this year in New York and the Giants were -3.5. That means this line should be -3.5 or maybe -4 max in favor of Washington. The fact we are getting more than a TD here gives us great value here. Many times the added pressure of having to win can work against a team. New York has the far superior defense as well allowing 5.3 YPP to Washington’s 6.0. The Skins won big last week at Chicago 41-21 but they were helped in a big way by 5 interceptions thrown by Bear QB Barkley as the yardage was fairly even. A division game to end the season and we expect this to be close throughout.
Ben Burns
Raptors vs. Lakers
Play: Raptors -8½
Toronto checks in off back-to-back losses and has failed to cover three straight. Facing an LA team with just two wins in it last 16 games should be a good spot to get back on track. Losing at Golden State was one thing. Losing at Phoenix was an entirely different matter. Off that loss, expect the well-coached Raptors to be all business here. Toronto is a perfect 4-0 ATS its last four, after losing its previous game outright, when favored.
The Raptors, who are also 6-2 ATS (7-1 SU) when playing with two day's rest, destroyed the Lakers by 33 points last month. They won by double-digits in their last visit to LA. They're still 11-5 SU/ATS on the road. All signs point to another rout.