Mike Lundin
Seattle at San Francisco
Play: Seattle -8½
The Seattle Seahawks have already claimed the NFC West title, but they can still earn a pass on wild-card weekend with a victory here against the Niners and a loss or tie for the Falcons against the Saints. They're coming off a 34-31 loss to Arizona, but are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
The San Francisco 49ers picked up their second win of the season (both against the Rams) with a 22-21 road victory at LA last week. The bad news is that they lost running back Carlos Hyde who tore his MCL in the victory, and this is a team that match up really poorly with Seattle who is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 head-to-head meetings.
Scott Rickenbach
Carolina at Tampa Bay
Play: Carolina +3½
The Buccaneers are likely to be a popular choice today as they need to win to have a shot at the post-season. However, in the back of their minds they know their chances are extremely slim and they truly let it slip away last week with their loss to the Saints last week. The other hurdle the Bucs have here is that they're taking on a Carolina team that has nothing to lose here and is playing with revenge. The Panthers certainly don't have any post-season aspirations to worry about but they can still relish in the fact that they were they ones that made sure the division rival Bucs stayed home too! That is significant motivation for Carolina, as is the fact that they lost at home to Tampa Bay in early October in a game where they were done in by a 4-0 turnover deficit. It is payback time here and the line is offering great value to the underdog Panthers.
3G-Sports
Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
Play: Baltimore -2.5
Cincinnati has been playing very tight games over the last 2 but are banged up on both sides on the ball. Baltimore's season may be over, but being a well-coached, veteran team, I don't expect them to give up and pack it in for this game. In last year's forgettable campaign, the Ravens beat the Steelers in Week 16 and lost by just eight points to a far superior Bengals team in Cincinnati in Week 17 despite playing Ryan Mallett at quarterback and being ravaged by injuries across the board. Conversely, the Bengals predictably didn't show up last week in Houston after ownership prevented A.J. Green from playing. The Ravens defense should keep Cincinnati in check while the offense does enough to get a win so I'm laying the 2.5 pts with the Ravens on the road here.
Zack Cimini
St. John's vs. DePaul
Pick: DePaul
Oddsmakers had no choice but to put the Johnnies as slight favorites here off of wins against Syracuse and Butler. Both were shockers but at the end of the day the Johnnies have been wildly inconsistent (lost to Del State). This is a spot where DePaul can use the energy they had against Villanova in a near win, and carry it over to knock off a Johnnies team that's due for a letdown.
Jim Feist
Raptors at Lakers
Pick: Over
Toronto has plenty of offensive punch and likes to run, on an 18-8 run over the total. The Over is 21-7-1 when the Raptors face the Western Conference. LA doesn't play any defense and the Over is 10-4 in the Lakers last 14 home games.
Harry Bondi
Giants / Redskins Over 45.5
The Redskins’ record-breaking offense has helped the team go over in 12 out of 15 games this season and dating back to last season the Skins are 8-1 to the over in games played on this field, so we’ll call for another high-scoring affair today. Yes, the Giants have been an under team thanks to one of the better defenses in the NFL, but since the team is locked into the No. 5 seed in the NFC and has nothing to play for today, you can expect them to empty the bench in the second half and that’s when the skill-position players from the Skins will have their way. These two teams scored a combined 56 points in the first meeting this season and in the last five meetings they have averaged 48 points per game. Look for a similar result here today.
David Banks
Packers @ Lions
Pick: Packers -3
It's a Week 17 division championship game in Detroit when the Lions host Green Bay on Sunday night. The winner will win the NFC North and get the playoff berth that goes along with it. Not long ago, the Packers were just 4-6 and the postseason seemed like a longshot. Five straight wins in a row have put head coach Mike McCarthy's Packers right back in the thick of things. A 38-25 win over Minnesota last week gives Green Bay an opportunity to get into the postseason for the eighth consecutive season.
The Lions offense, which has been phenomenal for much of the season, has sputtered recently. Detroit scored just six points in a loss to the Giants and mustered just 20 in a win over the Bears the week before. The running game is non-existent as leading rusher Theo Riddick (357 yards) hasn’t played since Dec. 4 due to a wrist injury. Detroit’s running game is 30th in the NFL managing just over 80 yards a game. The Lions offense is really all about QB Matthew Stafford. The Detroit quarterback has 3,720 yards passing and 22 touchdowns. Golden Tate is the team’s leading receiver with 79 catches for 942 yards.
When the two teams met early in the season, the Packers roared to 31-10 halftime lead. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw four TD passes and RB Eddie Lacy ran for 103 yards. Lacy suffered a season-ending injury and the Packers running game rests now on the shoulders of wide receiver Ty Montgomery, who barely registered in the box score in the first game with the Lions. Green Bay fell to 4-6 at one point during the season but has won its last five straight. Rodgers has 4,128 yards passing and 36 touchdowns. He has been magnificent late in the season. The loser of Sunday night’s game may still have a shot at a playoff berth but will need help to make it.
Bruce Marshall
Chargers +5
K.C. still has hopes of winning the once-rugged AFC West. The decline of the Broncos and Chargers, plus Derek Carr's fractured fibula, make the West not so rugged anymore. But as long as Philip Rivers is healthy and firing away, he figures to make things difficult for the Chiefs. For sure, Rivers (4117 YP, 31 TDs, but a concerning 19 ints.) has been disappointing TY. But S.D. has been injured at RB and in the OL (again). Melvin Gordon (997 YR; out the last two games) has a chance to return for this game. And, aside from the Tebow-like passing prowess of NT Dontari Poe, KC's 2nd-half TD power has been nearly absent in recent weeks. Bolts might dig in as LY in another possible last home game before hotly-rumored L.A. move.
Bob Balfe
Lions/Packers Over 49.5
Green Bay has been really impressive against great defenses the last few weeks. Luckily for the Packers those offenses were limited, but tonight that won’t be the case. Neither team has a running game which means more throws which means more possessions. More possessions equals more points. I think this is going to be a classic shootout and remember it is Matthew Stafford that has eight 4th quarter comebacks this season. Detroit winning outright would not shock me one bit, but I think the total is a safer play here.
Brad Wilton
I am going against the grain tonight and backing the home underdog Lions in their game against division-rival Green Bay.
The Packers have all the momentum in the world, as they come into Ford Field having won 5 in a row, with 4 covers in those 5 victories.
The Lions have followed their season-high 5 game winning streak with losses at the Giants, and at the Cowboys the past 2 weeks. Those losses are bad news for sure, but the good news is, Detroit is back at home where they have won 6 straight since an early September loss to the Tennessee Titans. Detroit did win outright in their only try thus far this season as the home dog -- besting Philly early in the year -- and the home team in this rivalry has covered in 6 of the last 8 series meetings.
Green Bay has won and covered the last pair of series meetings, but Detroit can boast a 3-3 straight up mark the last 6 times they have faced the Pack.
To me, this game comes down to the Lions playing at home after playing on the road the past pair of weeks. I like Detroit to cool off Green Bay and claim the NFC North Division tonight.
5* DETROIT
Brett Atkins
Your New Year's Day free play is the Over in the Chicago-Minnesota NFC North (meaningless) battle from the Twin Cites.
With nothing on the line for either team, I am going to call for some scoring at US Bank Stadium, as Chicago has been involved in some "loose" games the past couple of weeks.
The Bears last pair of games have both gone Over, as they have combined for 62 points with Washington last week, and 57 points with Green Bay the week prior. Overall, Chicago has played 4 of 7 Over the total since their bye.
Minnesota's defense has been leaky to end the disappointing campaign, as the Vikings have allowed 72 points the last 2 weeks, and have played Overs in 4 of their last 7 games overall.
Look for the teams to let it rip - as much as the can - today, and for the Bears and Vikings to end this season with an Over.
4* CHICAGO-MINNESOTA OVER
Bob Valentino
My free play for Sunday is on the New England Patriots laying the big number against the Miami Dolphins.
The Pats are hoping to finish the regular season with an undefeated road record, and by doing so, will get to stay home for the AFC playoffs.
A victory in Miami means New England clinches home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now here is the thing, New England looked conservative in protecting Tom Brady last year, when he threw a season-low 21 passes in last year's regular-season finale at Miami. But the Patriots lost, it forced them to play on the road in the AFC title game, and they lost at eventual Super Bowl-champion Denver.
The Patriots will take no chances in this one, and will be playing as if it were the Super Bowl. New England beat Miami 31-24 in Week 2, but the Pats were without Tom Brady because of his four-game "Deflategate" suspension.
The Dolphins clinched a playoff berth last week under first-year coach Adam Gase, so they've gotten their job done by getting into the postseason, and may not be looking to get anyone injured.
Take the road team.
2* PATRIOTS
Matt Josephs
Penn State vs. Rutgers
Play: Over 142
The Nittany Lions try to prevent an 0-2 start in conference as they play at Rutgers. This will be just their third true road game and so far in each of them they've been able to play at their fast pace in each. They beat St. John's 92-76 and GW 74-68 in those contests. This is a team that doesn't shoot the ball well, but they shoot it fast. They've crack the 75 point mark in three straight games. It's an up and down young team so defense has been sketchy at times. Rutgers got off to the hot start because of their easy schedule, but they've come back down to earth in losses to Wisconsin and Seton Hall. This is a team that plays at a slower pace, but has done well at the RAC. At home, they've cracked the 80 point mark three times this season. It looks like Corey Sanders will play for them and that's big. Rutgers has gone over in 25 of their last 39 conference games. That trend continues on Sunday.
Frank Jordan
Oakland vs. Denver
Play: Oakland +1
Oakland was all set to win the AFC West and challenge New England for top spot and top team in the AFC, but that all went out the window with Carr going down last week. Oakland can still win the AFC West and secure a bye with a win, but its not that easy as they have to travel on the road to Denver. Denver is out of it as far as playoffs and have lost three in a row, but would love to end on a win and winning year along with figuring out which quarterback they want to move forward with. Oakland is 3-2 in divisional games thus far while Denver hasn't fair well in divisional play having lost four of five heading into this game. Denver is just 4-3 at home while Oakland has played very well on the road having won six of seven. Oakland is going with Matt McGloin who is 2 of 4 on the year for 29 yards and for his career is 155 of 266 for 1,847 yards with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in four years with the Raiders. McGloin has done well on the road with a 2-3 record and five touchdowns and only three interceptions. Look for McGloin to play well against a tough defense and Oakland to get the win and a bye to give them two weeks to prep for next game winning 20-17.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO -1½ +199 over Detroit
The game itself really needs no introductions but just in case you were unaware, it is the Winter Classic outdoors at BMO Field in Toronto, which is located inside the CNE grounds but this is no exhibition. The Red Wings come in off a 3-2 victory over Ottawa on Daniel Alfredsson night in Ottawa. That was two nights after the Red Wings had a ceremony of their own at home against Buffalo and lost 4-3. The Red Wings are the only team to lose to Buffalo since December 16 over a span of eight games for the Sabres. Now Detroit’s vulnerable and slow defense is going to have to deal with the wrath of the Maple Leafs speed up front in an electric atmosphere for a bunch of jacked up, confident and extremely talented mix of youths and rookies. It may also surprise you to learn that the Red Wings apparent strength, their offense or deep group of talented forwards, has created fewer chances than every team in the NHL besides the Devils. Toronto has created the most chances in the NHL.
If Toronto has created the most chances and Detroit has created the second least, goaltending figures to be a big deal here and in that regard, Petr Mrazek is among the worst goaltenders in the league, especially between the ears where he’s jittery on just about every shot coming his way. It’s so bad that Wings coach, Jeff Blashill is scared to use Mrazek, who has surrendered four goals in each of his last four starts. Don’t be surprised to see rookie Jared Coreau and his .908 save percentage over three appearances get this start. Either way, give a huge edge to Fredrick Andersen of the Leafs, who has quietly been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL since early November.
As a new year begins, the Maple Leafs, buoyed by a four-game winning streak, are a confident group that just keeps improving under the masterful guidance of Mike Babcock. Speaking of Babcock, this game might be a big deal for him and a word about that in the locker room need not be spoken, as every Maple Leafs’ player knows it and will respond accordingly. Said Babcock, "This is a special one, our 100th-year anniversary in the NHL and our team is getting better." The big picture is that the Maple Leafs are turning into a juggernaut right before our very eyes. They are getting better around the net both offensively and defensively and have two young rookies in Austin Matthews and Mitch Marner that have the potential to be as dynamic as Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr when both were in their prime and playing for the Cup winning Penguins. Not only are the Leafs the superior team but this one means a lot more to the Maple Leafs and their coach than it does to the Red Wings and as long as the Maple Leafs aren’t too jacked up and try to do too much individually, this bet should get us to the cashier’s window.
NOTE: We discussed our -1½ puck philosophy a couple of weeks ago and wil continue to play favs this way instead of spotting -½. For our new readers, here's the philosophy behind it:
There were four games that went into OT on Thursday night so for anyone spotting a half puck with the favorite, they would have lost those bets no matter what. However, six favorites, Boston, Columbus, Minnesota, Rangers, Dallas and Edmonton all won by 2 or more. Boston, Edmonton, Rangers and Minnesota all added empty netters. Not one favorite won by a single goal in regulation time, which is not unusual. We did a study covering the span from when Patrick Roy set precedence in pulling goalies early and found very similar results throughout the years since. Last night was much of the same, as two games went into OT while four dogs won outright. That left us with six favorites of which five of them won by two goals or more. The point is, if you're playing a favorite, the better wager is -1½ as opposed to -½ because the takeback is so much higher while the win expectation is not. We'll reap much higher profits by spotting 1½-goals instead and that is the approach we’ll use from now on.