Free Picks for Sunday, January 8th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Mike Anthony
New York vs. Green Bay
Play: Green Bay -4
The NY Giants, coming off a week 17 win over the hapless Washington Redskins, go on the road to take on the Green Bay Packers who are locked away the NFC North crown last week with a win over the Detroit Lions. The Giants have been up and down over the last two weeks of the season but come into wildcard weekend with momentum after winning a game where nothing was really at stake for them. The Giants have been doing well recently thanks to their defense but are about to be severely tested as they go on the road to take on the high powered Packers offense. Eli Manning had an extremely pedestrian day against Washington but in something of an interesting trend the Giants ran the ball 40 times for 161 yards, a huge departure from the 88.3 yards per game they managed over this season.
The Green Bay Packers come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the league and with Aaron Rodgers having fulfilled his guarantee to run the table in the regular season it is not time for them to try and translate that to the postseason. The Green Bay Packers passing game has been incredible over the last six games of the season but now have to take on the stingy Giants secondary. Green Bay is a team capable of running the ball quite well and defensively they should not be too worried given how lackluster the Giants have been offensively. Look for the home team Green Bay Packers to get the win and cover on Sunday behind their stub QB and offensive weapons.
Marc Lawrence
Giants vs. Packers
Play: Under 44½
Edges - Giants: 2-7 UNDER last nine games versus NFC North, including 0-4 UNDER last four. Packers: 4-7 UDNER last eleven games against the NFC East, including 0-3 UNDER the last three in this series. With the Giants having played UNDER the total in all 8 games during the 2nd half of the season this year, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER total in this game.
DAVE COKIN
GIANTS AT PACKERS
PLAY: GIANTS +5
I really don’t care much about the history that tells us how dangerous the Giants have been in the wild card role, including wins at Green Bay in their Super Bowl years. Makes for good discussion fodder, but I’m really only interested in right now.
The Packers are on fire, and Aaron Rodgers is blazing hot. The Giants have a solid defense, but it’s sure to be tested on Sunday.
But I think there’s a legitimate chance the Giants can simply outscore the Packers here. Green Bay has some real issues in its secondary right now. Plus, it’s not like they have a great pass rush. Eli Manning can be harassed into mistakes but if he has time to throw, which I believe he will, this GB defensive backfield is a candidate to get torched.
That’s the biggest key to this game as far as I’m concerned. Manning is always a threat to throw the ball to someone wearing the wrong uniform, but I see him having a very good opportunity to have a pretty big day here. Rodgers will get the Packers to the end zone as well, but the Giants have the superior stop unit, and I generally like defensive dogs. That’s the case for the Giants, and I’m taking the points on Sunday.
DAVE COKIN
BRUINS AT HURRICANES
PLAY: HURRICANES
No early line on this NHL game between Boston and Carolina, but it’s likely to be closely lined. My play is on Carolina, but there’s a goalie requirement that needs to be fulfilled before I make the wager.
Tuukka Rask pitched the shutout for the Bruins on Saturday evening as Boston got the 4-0 win at Florida. Rask has only played two games in two nights once all season, so with this game being less than 24 hours off the Saturday matchup and with travel involved, I’m assuming there’s a good chance Anton Khudobin gets the start today for the Bruins.
Cam Ward is already confirmed for the Hurricanes, and he’s been adequate for the most part. Khudobin has been mostly lousy in his sporadic outings for the Bruins. He’s earned just one win in seven starts this season, and that makes him potential go against material anytime he gets the call.
The Bruins have also struggled badly when playing with no rest this season. They’ve garnered just one win in six such situations. Carolina is off a tough loss to the Blackhawks, but the ‘Canes have been a good home team this year and they should be the fresher team today as well.
I like the Hurricanes to win this game, but the play is contingent on Bruins goalie Rask getting a seat on the sidelines. I’ll update on Twitter (@davecokin) once the goalies are confirmed.
Sleepyj
Northwestern -1
The numbers I have say Northwestern should be a -4 favorite even on the road...So laying one to a bigger named team like Nebraska tells me the line is a bit short....When I broke these teams down a few things stood out...First off PPG on offense and defense are rather far apart...Actually came out to +15.5 in favor of Northwestern.....A big key for me is the lack of passing the ball for Nebraska...They are on of the worst assisting teams in the nation and they will face a very good defense...In order for Nebraska to win this game they will need to shoot a very high %...They have some shooters, but something says it won't be easy for them tonight...Northwestern will battle very tough down low and that might be an area that Nebraska will need win in lopsided fashion...I just don't see it...I actually think these teams are a little further apart than most think.....Cornhuskers can ball, but Northwestern coming off a tough loss will look to bounce back here..Number wise I have to take the road team.
Jim Feist
Magic vs. Lakers
Play: Under 216
Orlando is 3,000 miles from home and won't want to get into a running match with the young Lakers. Orlando is 17-7 under the total playing on one day of rest. The Under is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Los Angeles is #17 in the NBA in scoring, #19 in field goal shooting. The under is 17-7 in the Lakers last 24 vs. the NBA Southeast division. And when these teams collide the Under is 19-7, including 14-3 under at LA.
Ben Burns
Ohio State vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -5½
The Buckeyes have had their way with the Gophers in recent seasons. Times are changing though and this should be a good spot for a surging Minnesota team to exact some revenge. While Ohio State checks in with a 10-5 record, the Gophers are an impressive 14-2. Having tipped off 2017 with road wins at Purdue and Northwestern, the Gophers come in full of confidence. On the other hand, off back-to-back tough losses, including a 1-point heartbreaker vs. Purdue last time out, the Buckeyes could be feeling a little deflated. While the Buckeyes, who have never started Big Ten play with a 0-3 record under Thad Matta should be desperate to avoid another loss, that doesn't figure to be enough.
Sean Murphy
Flyers vs. Blue Jackets
Play: Flyers +1½
The Blue Jackets have suddenly cooled off, dropping back-to-back games, and I believe there's a good chance that skid stretches to three games against the Flyers on Sunday.
With that being said, I do feel there's value grabbing the insurance goal with the Flyers here.
Philadelphia snapped its own five-game losing streak with a win over the Lightning yesterday. It's important that the Flyers get some positive momentum back on their side as the month of January wears on and the All-Star break approaches. They'll certainly be up for this matchup - their first meeting with the Jackets this season.
The Jackets have owned this series lately, taking six of the last seven meetings. That only adds to the Flyers motivation here.
Brandon Shively
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Play: Steelers -10½
The Steelers basically had a bye last week when they rested all of their fantasy studs...Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'veon Bell. They are playing with revenge also when the Dolphins beat them earlier this season. Pittsburgh had New England on deck and were caught looking ahead. That shouldn’t be the case today. I am looking for them to put up a big number here.
This is a big number to lay I understand, but NFL home favorites of 10 or more points are 8-3 ATS since 2002. Eight of the last 9 have had a margin of victory of 11 points or more. In these 11 games, the average margin of victory has been 16 points.
The Steelers were a 10 point favorite earlier this year and beat the Jets by 18 points. They are 4-0 ATS their L4 when a home favorite of 8 or more points winning by an average of 20 points. So the Steelers have done well when laying a big number.
The Dolphins defense has been shredded for the most part this year. They have been outgained in 5 of their last 6 games. They have gotten shed for 6.1 yards per play and 448 yards per game their last 3 games. The Steelers have dominated the stats this year when all of their offensive players have been playing and at the end of the day, it will be way too much offense for the Dolphins to try to match. They are outmatched in every category in this game and it can’t help that the warm weather Dolphins will be playing in very cold weather with expected temperatures to be in the 15 degree range.
Jimmy Boyd
Dolphins vs. Steelers
Play: Dolphins +10
I like the value here is with Miami catching double-digits. I believe we are seeing an inflated line with Pittsburgh being such a public team. It’s not very often you see a team beat an opponent by 15 and then catch double-digits in the rematch. I know the Steelers are better at home than on the road, but 10-points is a lot in the postseason.
I think the big spread will have Miami playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. The Dolphins come in having won 9 of 11, yet no one is taking them seriously. It won’t be easy, but I actually think Miami can pull off the upset here.
The difference this time around is the Dolphins won’t have Ryan Tannehill. The thing is, Matt Moore is a more than capable backup. He’s completed 63.2% of his attempts with a 8.29 average per completion and 8-3 TD to INT ratio.
I know Pittsburgh’s defense has been playing better of late, but Miami had their way with them. Tannehill went 24 of 32 for 252 yards and Jay Ajayi rushed for 204 yards on 25 attempts. If the Dolphins can have similar success on the ground, it’s hard to not like their chances of keeping it close.
It’s also worth noting that Miami head coach Adam Gase has a strong history against the Steelers. Including the game this year, he’s faced them 3 times as a coach or assistant. In those 3 games his team has averaged 30 ppg. One of those was when he was the QB coach at Denver with Tim Tebow under center. That game the Broncos put up 447 yards in a Wild Card win over the Steelers.
The other big key for me is the Dolphins showed they can at least contain Le’Veon Bell. In that first meeting he had just 53 yards rushing and 55 receiving. Most importantly, they kept him out of the endzone. Miami also held Antonio Brown to just 4 catches for 39 yards and picked off Big Ben twice.
Lastly, Tomlin doesn’t have a great track record in these revenge spots. In fact, Pittsburgh is 2-10 ATS revenging a loss as a road favorite under Tomlin. It’s also worth noting the Dolphins are 33-16 ATS in their last 49 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Steelers are also just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 at home and 0-3-2 ATS last 5 playoff games.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn
The Rockets won their showdown Thursday night on TNT against the Thunder 118-116, surviving a 49-point effort by Russell Westbrook (Harden had "just" 26 points on 6 of 16 shooting). Houston then survived a rare off-night by Harden on Friday at Orlando, when he scored only 14 points (his lowest total in nearly two months) and missed all eight of his three-point shots. However, just like with OKC, Houston came away with a win (100-93) and will take the NBA's longest active winning streak (seven) into Sunday's game at Toronto. The Rockets were 11-7 at the end of November but are now 29-2, after winning 18 of their last 20 games!
The Raptors are 24-12, the East's second best record (Cavs are 27-8 ) but have followed a four-game winning streak with four losses in their last six contests. Last night's 123-118 OT loss in Chicago was particularly painful, as Toronto blew a 19-point late third quarter lead to the Bulls. The Raptors have now lost 10 in a row to the Bulls, last defeating them back Dec. 31, 2013. However, the Raptors have had much better success against the Rockets, as they won EIGHT of their last nine games over Houston here in Toronto.
These team last met back in Houston on Nov 23, with the Raptors winning 115-102. James Harden is having a terrific season (27.9-8.2-11.9) and has produced a double-double in 16 straight games, the longest such streak in the NBA in five years. However, in that game vs the Raptors, he had 12 turnovers (the Raptors forced 28 in the game). Toronto has not fared well up against the NBA's elite teams this season, with that 13-point win at Houston being an exception. I say deja vu all over again!
Scott Spreitzer
Rockets at Raptors
Pick: Rockets
The Rockets aim for their 8th straight win when they take on the Raptors in Toronto. Houston has been unstoppable on the offensive end, averaging 120 ppg during the run. The Raptors have fared well ATS in the second of back-to-back nights, but we believe the trend will take a loss here. The Raptors were forced to go into OT in a loss to Chicago last night and return home to face a team where the legs can't be weary, even in the slightest. Toronto's play on the defensive end hasn't been great this year as it is, allowing teams to make over 45% of their FGA. Houston enters on a 12-3 ATS run on the road and we'll back them here.
Executive Sports
Cal vs. USC
Play: Cal +3
SoCal is 15-1 on ther season and hosts California who is 10-5. With only 1 loss on the season the competition gets a little tougher today for SoCal. California has lost 3 of their last 4 games, but those losses came against Virginia, Arizona, and Ucla. In their last 3 games SoCal only hit an average of 37% from the field. That kind of shooting won't be good enough today against California.
Bob Valentino
My free winner for Sunday is on the Wisconsin Badgers plus the number at Purdue.
In what you would think could amount to a competitive game between 13-win teams, I'm siding with the road team to get it done, as it's the better team.
The Wisconsin Badgers, who have covered seven of their last eight, have won four of six away from Madison and roll into Purdue on a 12-4 ATS run in conference play.
Wisconsin's defense will slow the Boilermakers, who are used to scoring 83.9 points per game, but now face a team that is allowing 59.4. Purdue's last home game resulted in a nine-point overtime loss to Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the Badgers are riding high on a nine-game win streak - seven by double digits. During the nine-game run, Wisconsin's win margin is an average of 24.3 points per victory.
Take the Badgers.
5* WISCONSIN