Free Picks for Sunday, November 12th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Art Aronson
New Orleans at Buffalo
Play: Under 47
Will New Orleans have a letdown here after six straight victories? Maybe. But then again, maybe not. Drew Brees is having a decent season (by his incredibly high standards), but the Saints have been surprisingly good on the defensive side of the ball (after being a disaster for the last five years) and they are also getting big production from the run game from the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Buffalo came out of its bye week with two straight wins, but enters this one off a listless 34-21 loss at the Jets on Thursday night. With a couple extra days off this week Buffalo needs to take advantage of familiar surroundings before a tough two game road trip which sees it at the Chargers and Chiefs respectively. Note that the Saints have seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of their last 14 against clubs with winning records, while Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 21 as an underdog, including in three of four this year.
Strike Point Sports
Minnesota (-2) over Washington
This Vikings team, despite their issues at quarterback, is one of the best the NFC has to offer. Outside of the Eagles, the NFC East is very hit or miss. The teams just can't put together consistent football. The Vikings defense is really, really good, and they are absolutely dominant enough to keep this team in games. Minnesota comes in to this game off their bye, so they are rested and ready to keep their winning streak intact. This line is lower because the Redskins did pick up a good win versus Seattle. They looked good in beating Seattle, but they will let down a bit in this matchup versus a rested Vikings team. Look for Minnesota to take care of the football and be an opportunistic offense when their defense turns over Cousins a few times. Take the Vikings in this one as they pick up a good win 24-17.
Allen Eastman
Atlanta (-3) over Dallas
I think that Atlanta is going to bounce back with a win here. They have not played a home game in nearly a month. They have played three straight road games around their bye week. The Falcons are just 4-4, and last year's NFC champions are desperate this week. The Cowboys are coming off a big win over the Chiefs, and they have now won three straight games. The public is all over the Cowboys right now, and I think that if you wait on this spread it will move down to 2.0. Dallas is a team that has always had a hard time sustaining momentum. And they could be without some of their key receivers this week as Dez Bryant and Terrence Williams both suffered injuries last week. If Ezekiel Elliott can't go then the Cowboys will be down a lot of talent facing a Falcons team in a must-win situation. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in this series, and I will go with the home team.
Buster Sports
Cowboys at Falcons
Play: Falcons -3
The Dallas Cowboys come to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and for the first time this year they will be without superstar RB Ezekiel Elliott. We believe even though Dallas has an OL that anyone who is a professional RB can run behind (see Demarco Murray) the replacements of Morris, Smith and Mcfadden give us pause however, as it might not be that easy for those three today. Atlanta and Dallas statistically could not be more even. As they rank side-by-side in many offense and defensive categories. However, that was with Elliott in the line-up who eats up time on the clock and keeps a Dallas defense fresh. Playing Atlanta is going to be a really good test for the Cowboys to see exactly how much they have lost with Elliott out of the line up. We believe it is more than people think. Atlanta has not played well this year and are dealing with that Super Bowl jinx. Anyway you want to cut it our numbers still have Atlanta better than their 4-4 record and they need to start to win if they have any chance of making the playoffs. Today they catch a break without Elliott in the Dallas lineup and we think the Falcons will take advantage of it. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings between the clubs and this just solidifies our selection.
Wunderdog
Dallas @ Atlanta
Pick: Dallas +3.5
Dallas has won and covered three straight and is fourthin the NFL in scoring at 28.2 points per game while Atlanta's offense has sputtered under a new offensive coordinator and the Falcons still appear to be suffering from a post-Super Bowl hangover. Atlanta has lost four of its last five games and struggling in short-yardage situations and the Falcons are third in the league with 16 dropped passes, including a crucial one by Julio Jones in last week's loss to Carolina. Also, the Falcons have been hurt by a total of 61 penalties this season and they have scored an average of only 16.6 points their last five games. Matt Ryan finished 24-of-38 for 313 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the Panthers, but the Falcons managed to gain just 53 yards on the ground. Ezekiel Elliott is out for this game, but the Cowboys are surging and Dak Prescott was 21-of-33 for 249 yards with two TDs and no picks in his team's win against Kansas City last week. The Falcons are 0-5 ATS their last five games and 2-6 ATS their last eight November games. Dallas is 11-4 ATS its last 15 games after an ATS win and under Jason Garrett, this team is 28-17 ATS as an underdog.
Brad Diamond
Vikings vs. Redskins
Play: Vikings -120
At the line of scrimmage, the advantage lies with the Vikings who are allowing only 16.9 points per game. On defense Minnesota is allowing only 3.5 yards per carry which will place more pressure on the ‘Skins pass game, this is a definitive edge for the visitor. Long-term Minnesota is 36-15 ATS, while Washington shows 3-7 ATS L10 and 1-5 ATS at home recently. RB Cook will not play for the Vikings.
Stephen Nover
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Play: Cleveland +11
Not only is this a division sandwich for the Lions with the Bears on deck, but it's a huge letdown spot after they defeated the Packers on the road this past Monday night.
As bad as Cleveland is, the Lions aren't good enough to cover a double-digit spread. The Lions lack the talent to win by huge margins especially on a short week and off a monster nationally televised division win.
The Browns were idle last week. They are as healthy as they've been all season with the exception of being without Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas. Obviously that's a huge loss. But the Browns get back their best receiver, Corey Coleman, along with a very good cornerback in Jason McCourty.
The Browns are holding opposing running backs to less than three yards per carry and have yielded only three rushing touchdowns all season. Detroit ranks 29th in rushing. So it's a given the Lions aren't going to be able to run on Cleveland although they likely will keep trying.
Cleveland actually has a better yards per play differential than Detroit, which ranks 30th in that category. The Browns have been done in by an NFL-high 21 giveaways. Detroit, though, has committed eight turnovers in its last four games.
Half of the Browns' defeats have been by three points, one coming in overtime.
While the Browns are down Thomas, the Lions may be without their best guard as T.J. Lang is in concussion protocol. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 26 times. The Lions rank 27th in red zone touchdown percentage.
It's asking too much of the Lions - who can't run, don't score touchdowns in the red zone and face a better than perceived Cleveland secondary with McCourty back - to cover this high of a number on a short week off a big win against a rested foe.
Scott Spreitzer
Saints vs. Bills
Play:Under 48
The Bills normally win at home with Tyrod Taylor at QB. In fact, they've won 18 of his last 25 home starts. They don't pile-up passing yardage, but they can control the flow of the game with the ground attack. While New Orleans plays well against the pass, they can be had on the ground. Buffalo should be able to stick to their ground-first game plan, shortening the game. The Saints tore through Tampa Bay last week for 6.9 yards per play, but they're 11-3 to the Under following a game where they averaged at least 6.5 yards per play. They're also 6-1 to the Under off a double digit win. We expect this one to stay below the posted total.
John Martin
Packers vs. Bears
Play: Packers +6
Chicago opened as a 3-point favorite against Green Bay prior to Monday Night Football this past week. But then the Packers lost 30-17 at home to the Lions, and now the Bears have been bet up to -6. That's a ridiculous 3-point adjustment and it's too much. I like the price we are getting on the Packers now. This will be the first time Chicago has been favored against Green Bay since 2008, a span of 18 meetings. I realize Brett Hundley hasn't looked great in his two starts, but he has played two very good teams in the Saints and Lions. It's not like Mitch Trubisky is lighting up any scoreboards, either. The Bears have been held to 17 or fewer points in three of Trubisky's four starts. They are averaging just 16.7 points and 287.4 yards per game on offense this season. Points will be at a premium here with a total set of only 38 points. So getting 6 points with the Packers is a nice value Sunday.
Dennis Macklin
Browns vs. Lions
Play: Lions -12
If the Lions were ever or are for real in 2017, we'll find out here. After debacles against the Saints and Steelers, Motown finally found the end zone and probably its confidence by going into Green Bay and winning against a toothless Packer outfit in dominating fashion. It's a short work week for the Lions but they should be able to whatever they want, running or throwing. The Browns are off their bye and hope to get something going after a 0-8 first half. That said, the Brownies are 1-5 SU and just 2-4 out of their L6 byes. They are 2-6 ATS this year and haven't covered a road game in any capacity this year. Laying double-digits on a regular basis is generally a recipe for disaster but Cleveland's long-term numbers like 10-28 ATS L38 all games and 8-25 ledger L33 as a dog inspires some confidence backing a team looking to run down the Vikes in the NFC North.
Dennis Macklin
Browns vs. Lions
Play: Lions -12
If the Lions were ever or are for real in 2017, we'll find out here. After debacles against the Saints and Steelers, Motown finally found the end zone and probably its confidence by going into Green Bay and winning against a toothless Packer outfit in dominating fashion. It's a short work week for the Lions but they should be able to whatever they want, running or throwing. The Browns are off their bye and hope to get something going after a 0-8 first half. That said, the Brownies are 1-5 SU and just 2-4 out of their L6 byes. They are 2-6 ATS this year and haven't covered a road game in any capacity this year. Laying double-digits on a regular basis is generally a recipe for disaster but Cleveland's long-term numbers like 10-28 ATS L38 all games and 8-25 ledger L33 as a dog inspires some confidence backing a team looking to run down the Vikes in the NFC North.
Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Play: Cleveland +11
I like the value here with Cleveland as a double-digit dog against the Lions on Sunday. The betting public wants nothing to do with the Browns right now. Not only are they 0-8 SU, but they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and last time out lost 16-33 to the Vikings as a similarly price 11-point dog.
The thing is, this is a great spot for Cleveland to not only be competitive, but potentially get their first win of the season. That's because the Browns are coming off of their bye week, which is a huge advantage this late into the season. The extra time off has allowed some guys who were nursing injuries to get back to health and that includes star rookie defensive end Myles Garrett, who has been a force when he's actually been on the field.
I also don't think the Lions are as good as they get credit for, as they are just 4-4 on the season and 2 of those were against sub-par teams in the Cardinals and Giants and the most recent, which snapped a 3-game skid, was against a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers. It wouldn't surprise me the least bit of the Lions lost this game.
It's important to note that big win the Lions are coming off of at Green Bay, as Detroit is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 when coming off a double-digit road win. The Lions are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on a Sunday after playing their previous game on MNF and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Ricky Tran
Packers vs. Bears
Play: Packers +6
Hundley gets a shot away from Lambeau Field to showcase he's not a complete waste as backup to Aaron Rodgers. I think this will help him alleviate the pressure he surely felt from the home crowd and teammates during his first two starts.
Motivation, less pressure and probably some anger will all help fuel the Packers and Hundley to cover the 6 points. Don't forget this is a division game and Hundley has had much NFL experience then his counter part Mitchell Trubisky (2 TD, 2 INT, 66.3% QB Rating and has topped 150 yards passing only once.
Teddy Covers
Cowboys vs. Falcons
Play: Cowboys +3
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I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back. I also understand that the Cowboys offensive line is mostly healthy now, and they’ve dominated for the better part of the last month. Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last six ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – he’s thrown only 2 INT’s during that entire six week span. And the trio of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren McFadden are more than capable of filling the void left by Elliott’s suspension.
The mainstream narrative is so predictable it’s not even funny. I’ve seen so many ridiculous quotes like ‘Dak Prescott is going to have to throw 50 times a game now’ (he’s thrown more than 40 passes only twice in his 24 career starts) or ‘Dallas has no identity without Zeke’ (running backs are replaceable, and every player on every team knows it). It’s all nonsense – remember, sports reporters are paid to produce content, not to be right. My power rating adjustment for Dallas following the Elliott suspension news was all of a half point, and the Cowboys have been prepping and planning for this since the summer.
The wiseguys continue to support the Falcons on a weekly basis, despite their obvious and continued struggles on both sides of the football and their propensity for blowing leads. Why the sharp love for Atlanta? Simple – their statistical profile looks great. The Falcons Super Bowl team from last year outgained foes by an average of 1.1 yards per snap (their yards-per-play differential between what they gain on offense vs. what they allow on defense), ranked #1 in the NFL. This year’s Falcons squad has outgained their opponents by 1.1 yards per snap, ranked #1 in the NFL, just like last year.
Sharps focus heavily on those yards per play stats – too heavily, in this bettor’s opinion! After all, the elite Patriots have been outgained by more than half a yard on a ypp basis this year, while a very suspect losing team like Cinci has a positive differential. The stats might show that this year’s Falcons version is every bit as good as last year’s squad, but the eye test does not.
A Falcons team that scored 58 offensive touchdowns last year is only at 17 TD’s at the halfway point this year, with Steve Sarkisian unable to fill departed coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s big shoes. Atlanta has been favored four times in the last five weeks. They’ve lost three of those four games in SU fashion, with the offense unable to click during crunch time and the defense allowing 20+ in each of their last six contests.
The wiseguys are likely to keep betting on the Falcons until their statistical profile changes in a significant way. That gives savvy bettors a legitimate overlay to fade this vastly overrated commodity.