Ben Burns
Giants vs. 49ers
Play: 49ers +3
Undefeated and winless teams occur at about the same rate in the NFL and that’s not often. The both-winless Browns and 49ers are now on the back nine and San Francisco has the better chance of the two to get into the win column. The Giants (1-7) are almost as anemic as the 0-9 Niners and there are reports out of New York that coach Ben McAdoo has lost the locker room. He had better find it quick, or he could be out of a job. SF has lost three in a row ATS, but has a solid shot at reversing that trend against a disorganized NYG club.
Jack Jones
Saints vs. Bills
Play: Over 47
One of the hidden gem trends out there is that the OVER in Bills games has been a great bet when playing in Buffalo. The OVER is 14-3 in the Bills' last 17 home games. The perception is that there's bad weather in Buffalo and everyone wants to bet the under because of it, but that's just not the reality. I think there's value with the OVER 47 this week against the Saints.
The Saints boast one of the best offenses in the NFL. They are putting up 27.6 points per game, 392 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. They have found a running game this season behind Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram that has taken the load off of Drew Brees' shoulders. That balance has made them even more potent and tough to tame this season.
Brees and company should have their way with a Buffalo defense that is way overrated. The Bills really struggle against the pass, and they are giving up 345 yards per game and 5.5 per play on the season. Opposing quarterbacks are throwing for 250 yards per game and completing 63.9% of their passes against Buffalo. This is a Bills defense that just gave up 34 points to the New York Jets last week, and they have allowed 300-plus passing yards in three of their last four games.
Buffalo's offense should get a big boost this week. Tyrod Taylor is going to have two weapons he didn't have previously. Charles Clay has been out with a knee injury, but he is expected to make his return and is Taylor's favorite target. Also, Kelvin Benjamin will be making his Buffalo debut after sitting out last week against the Jets. This is going to be a very good offense moving forward with these two back and healthy.
There's no question that New Orleans has an improved defense this year. However, we are getting line value on the OVER because the Saints have gone under the total in three straight. But those three unders came against Brett Hundley and the Packers, Mitch Trubisky and the Bears and an injured Jameis Winston and the Bucs. The last time they faced a legitimate quarterback, they played in a 52-38 shootout against the Lions four weeks ago.
Buffalo is 11-1 OVER in all home games over the past two seasons. The OVER is 9-0 in Buffalo's last nine home games with a total set between 42.5 and 49. New Orleans is 45-26 OVER in its last 71 games off two or more consecutive unders. The OVER is 27-12 in Saints last 39 games after allowing 15 points or less in their previous game.
Dave Price
Patriots vs. Broncos
Play: Under 44½
I just don't know where the points are going to come from for the Denver Broncos. They have scored just 14.8 PPG in their last 5 games. They don't know what they're doing at quarterback, and they have significant injuries along the offensive line. New England has improved dramatically on defense since the start of the season. The Patriots are giving up just 12.8 PPG in their last 4 games. Their offense has been held in check of late, averaging just 21.8 PPG in their last 4 games. The Broncos still have an elite defense, and they are one of the few teams who have been able to figure out Tom Brady and New England. The Patriots have scored 18 points or fewer in 3 of their last 5 meetings with the Broncos. The UNDER is 9-1 in Patriots last 10 games on grass. The UNDER is 10-4 in Patriots last 14 road games. The UNDER is 10-2 in Broncos last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Larry Ness
New York at San Francisco
Play: New York -2½
The 1-7 New York Giants are in San Francisco to take on the 0-9 49ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.
More than anything, I’m taking a long hard look at the QB position.
The Giants were most recently destroyed 51-17 at home to the Rams last weekend, while the 49ers come in off a 20-10 home loss to the Cardinals.
Both teams average a miserable 15.9 PPG. New York allows 25.9, while San Francisco concedes 26.6.
Eli Manning’s pass attack is ranked 20th in the league with 212.5 YPG. Manning has 1,820 yards, 12 TD’s and six INT’s. The receiving corp is gutted with injury, putting pressure on Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram (412 yards, four TD’s.)
The 49ers are led by rookie QB CJ Beathard, who has 941 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s through the air, along with another 100 yards and two major scores on the ground. Carlos Hyde leads the ground attack with 494 yards and four TD’s.
I’ll point out though that New York is 3-0 ATS this year on games played on a “grass” field and 6-3 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses, while San Francisco is just 1-3 ATS this season against teams with losing records and only 1-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd.
Manning clearly has the advantage in this QB matchup. He’s having a good year behind a horrible team. Beathard has been decent, but the 49ers are clearly a work in progress.
I think Manning has enough left in him here to guide his team to an elusive second victory. Consider laying the points with the Giants this weekend.
Marc Lawrence
Cowboys vs. Falcons
Play: Cowboys +3
Edges - Cowboys: 5-0 ATS with revenge following a home game against foes off an away game… Falcons: Super Bowl losing teams are 0-4 ATS since 1997 at home following three straight away games; and 2-17 ATS at home following a division game against avenging foes coming off a non-division game… With Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn 10-2 SU against losing teams, but only 7-8 ATS against .500 or greater opponents, we recommend a 1* play on Dallas.
Chip Chirimbes
New Orleans vs. Buffalo
Play: New Orleans -2½
I saw the matchup and thought what a good spot to see New Orleans fall. Buffalo has been a big winner at home going 4-0 straight and undefeated against the points (3-0-1 ATS). Yet the Saints prayers must have been answered as they are favored on the road. This make the Bills so attractive it is sort of a 'double reverse' among betters. I smell a rat and expect the New Orleans defense to shutdown one dimensional quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and make it five here.
Rob Vinciletti
Green Bay vs. Chicago
Play: Green Bay +6
The Packers are 5-0 ats on the division road off a Monday night game. In fact since 1989 division road dogs are 5-0 straight up at +6 or less off a divisional monday night football home dog loss vs an opponent off a loss. Road dogs in general off back to back home dog spread losses are 5-0 ats vs a team that scored 15 or less points. The Bears are 0-6 ats as a division home favorite off a non division game and division home favorites off a bye are 5-17 ats off a road dog loss vs a team ff a home game.The Bears are 0-15 ATS at home after a game in which they had a rushing touchdown and did not win by 24-plus points. Packers go all out and at the very least get the cover here.
SPORTS WAGERS
INDIANAPOLIS +10 over Pittsburgh
There is no denying the Steelers are of the AFC’s best teams. The standings and the goods under the hood do not lie but sometimes other things come into play other than fancy stats. The Steelers are loaded with high profile superstars, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but with a locker room loaded with diva’s and head cases, this team is notorious for playing down to its competition. You don’t have to look any further than this season for a nice sampling of that. Pittsburgh failed to cover in games against Cleveland, Chicago, and Jacksonville while they easily could have lost their last time out in that Sunday night Snoozer in Detroit two weeks ago. The Steelers are a popular public team and after three straight wins that started with that impressive win over the Chiefs, its stock is soaring again. However, we’re always mindful of hot teams coming off a bye, as that break can totally mess with their momentum. Now add into that equation that the weed-smoking Steelers likely haven’t been studying game film for two weeks, knowing that the Colts are on deck, and it sets up perfectly for them to be real flat or just not give a rats ass.
The Colts got a win last Sunday in Houston, but it came with Tom Savage behind center for the Texans so Indy is getting about as much credit as one would by beating the Brownies. That said, there was once again some more positives for the Colts on Sunday, including a good game from a defensive unit that was under heavy criticism. At 3-6, all may seem lost for the Colts, but this is the AFC South we’re discussing and crazier things have happened. Furthermore, Jacoby Brissett has been fun to watch. He’s got a bit of that Patriots magic sprinkled on him after a stint in New England, and he can make plays in the air or on the ground.
With the great equalizer at double digits, the question becomes can Pittsburgh stay interested in this game long enough to avoid a back door cover or even worse, end up with a real fight on its hands. The Colts have not won many games but they have put up a fight against plenty of teams this season and have covered in half of their games. The Steelers are one of those teams that every team gets up to play when they come to town. This game will be buried on the easy slate and without the bright lights, we’re not sure what will motivate Pittsburgh’s prima-donna playmakers. The Colts are not the target here although we like them as a live pooch. The target here is the Steelers propensity to play down to their opponents when they believe all they have to do is show up in body only. This game screams of that.
Cleveland +11½ over DETROIT
The Lions might have the league’s highest paid player, but you’d think they would try and protect their investment. Quarterback Matt Stafford has been battered about after taking 26 sacks so far this season. The Lions O-line has a poor adjusted sack rate of 7.8%, which ranks 22nd, which would explain why Stafford spends so much time staring at the light. The poor offensive line play has affected all aspects of the Lions offense, as Detroit only has the number 20 DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) offense, and it is the league’s worst DVOA rushing team. The Stafford led passing game is a middle of the road unit (17th) while Big Money Matty is just 13th in total QB DVOA behind Derek Carr and his best buddy Matt Ryan, both of whom are considered to be having down seasons.
If there has been one positive for the winless Browns this season, it’s been the play of first overall pick Myles Garrett and the rest of the defensive line. The Brownies rank second in rushing space allowed to the offensive line and second in run plays stuffed behind the line of scrimmage making this a great matchup in the trenches as the Lions offensive line ranks either last or next to last in both of those areas. Garrett has only played in three games this season, but he’s already racked up four sacks and 11 tackles. To help further the case for the Browns in the trenches is the fact that Lions Pro Bowl guard, TJ Lang is in concussion protocol, making this often overlooked matchup even tastier.
The Browns are winless and spent the bulk of their bye week as the league’s laughing stock after botching a trade for Bengals' backup QB A.J. McCarren. Cleveland has been so bad for so long that it’s going to take a long time before the market considers looking its way to cash a ticket. The Brownies haven’t won a road game in over two years but this one sets up nicely for a cover. Cleveland is taking back inflated points against a weak team that just won a high profile prime time game, as the Lions disposed of the Packers on Monday Night Football. The Browns are coming off 10 days rest while the Lions are right back at it after a short week. The market feasted on easy winners last Sunday but there are danger signs all over the NFL map this week and this is another one of many that we’re targeting. Even though we get inflated prices on the Browns every week, they can’t be bet blindly every week because of it. One still has to go through the process and pick the best spots to get behind this dreg. This is that spot, as this game for Detroit is sandwiched between Green Bay in prime time last week and the rival Bears next week. We’d be more shocked if Cleveland didn’t cover than if Detroit did.
Minnesota -1½ over WASHINGTON
The Redskins went into Seattle last Sunday and escaped with a 17-14 win despite getting outgained by 193 yards. Washington is getting some good press after a big road win but a closer look shows this team is as average as its 4-4 record would indicate. The Redskins have been outgained in four of their last five games with the only exception being a 26-24 home win over still winless San Francisco as a -12 point favorite in Week 5. The numbers under the hood support the ‘Skins road to mediocrity. This team is 16th in total DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average) with the special teams pulling up the rear where the Redskins rank 25th on that often overlooked aspect of the game.
On Monday Night Football, Jon Gruden stated a matter a factly that with Aaron Rodgers and Sam Bradford out, Matt Stafford was the NFC North's best quarterback. “Chuckie” obviously hasn’t spent much time in the film room watching Case Keenum, who is by far a better option than Bradford and has grossly outperformed the league’s top paid player this season. Keenum leads the number nine DVOA offense and he’s the number six DVOA QB right now behind Deshaun Watson, who was making major headlines until he went down for the season. Keenum is ahead of guys like Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz, the latter of which is getting MVP chatter from all the talking heads. The Vikings are one of five teams that rank in the top half of the league on both sides of the ball with the defense coming in 11th in total DVOA. Minnesota's special teams also rank in the top half of DVOA (14) making them one of the most well-balanced teams in the league.
Last season the Vikes were undefeated (5-0) and atop the NFC North before taking their league-mandated break and it totally jacked up their momentum, as Minny dropped four straight and missed the playoffs. That collapse has not been lost on this team or it's beat reporters who covered that breakdown extensively during the bye. While that failure has no bearing on this season’s squad, it likely made for some decent bulletin board material. On the surface, the ‘Skins big win in Seattle looks like it could turn their season around and that sentiment is holding weight in the market. While Minny has posted four straight wins, they’ve come over the Browns, Ravens, Packers (minus Aaron Rodgers) and the Bears, not exactly a murderer’s row. It might look like the ‘Skins are being disrespected as oddmakers have made them a small home pooch but it is actually the Vikings who are being sold short here. Coming off an impressive (on-paper) win in Seattle, the Redskins are once again in line to disappoint.
DENVER +7½ over New England
The defending champs are 6-2 after four straight wins so all looks to be well with the Patriots, as they come off their bye. Tom Brady leads the league's number one offense and the Pats just picked up former tight end Martellus Bennett off waivers to bolster their passing attack. While New England seems to be fine on the surface, a closer look shows that the Pats have some big problems that are being masked by their recent string of W’s. Tom Brady might be the GOAT (greatest of all time) but he’s still a 40-year-old QB who is in line to set a dubious career high in sacks taken after getting planted 21 times already this season. He was sacked just 15 times in all of 2016. Tommy Boy has also taken 43 hits so far this season and the older you get, the deeper and more painful those bruises become. New England’s pass blocking has not been on par at all this season, as this unit is 15th in adjusted sack rate at 6.4%, behind garbage fires like the Giants, Dolphins, and Buccaneers. If the Patriots O-line is a concern, then the defense is a full-blown cluster muck. The Pats are 31st in Defensive DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average), and they aren’t particularly strong against the run (27th) or the pass (29th). The Pats have had particular trouble covering number one wide receivers and rank 30th in that advanced metric. Injuries are never much of a concern when we handicap games, as they are already factored into the line, but it’s hard to ignore that two of Brady’s favorite targets in Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola are both banged up and were limited at practice all week. The return of tight end Bennett might look nice on paper, but it may take him a while to readjust to the New England offense.
When you have two quarterbacks it usually means you have no quarterbacks and that’s pretty much where the Broncos find themselves halfway through the season. Denver has lost four straight including last Sunday’s blowout loss to Philadelphia in Brock Osweiler’s first start of the season. For the Broncos, below average QB play has been the norm going back to Peyton Manning’s last season in Denver and that team won the Super Bowl because of an elite defense. Thankfully for the Broncos, not much has changed in that regard. The Orange Crush is still flowing, as the Broncos bring the number six DVOA defense to the table.
We get it. It’s hard to back the Broncos with the way they’ve been playing but strange things have been known to happen when these two teams get together. The Pats and Broncos have split the last six meetings in this series, with Osweiler quarterbacking Denver to one of those victories so these are not uncharted waters. The perception in this market much more interesting to us. In that regard, the Patriots just keep winning while the Broncos look like one of the biggest dumpster fires in the game right now. A four-touchdown loss just a week ago in Philly also has the Broncos stock trading at a season-low. Let us remind you that Denver is a powerhouse at home and has been so for the past 30 years. Let us remind you that Denver’s defense is as good as it gets. Let us remind you that at home this season, Denver beat Dallas 42-17, the Bolts 24-21 (they led 24-7 going to the 4th Q) and Oakland, 16-10. Let us now inform you that outside of last week’s loss to Philadelphia (Denver’s third straight road game before this look-ahead game), the Broncs have outgained every other of the seven opponents they have faced this year, which includes Dallas, Kansas City and the Chargers not once but twice. If you bet New England this week, you may win but the more likely scenario is that you’ll feel foolish afterward after giving away better than a converted TD to this home beast. This is without question one of the most inflated prices you’ll pay in this league over the past decade or more. We’re calling the Broncos outright but we MUST take these propestrous points being offered.
BUFFALO +136 over New Orleans
The last time we saw the Bills they were sporting a 5-2 record and were a popular pick in a prime time Thursday night game versus the Jets. We all know what happened next. The last time we saw the Saints, they, too were a popular pick as a 7-point choice against the Buccaneers but unlike the Bills, the Saints delivered the goods with a resounding 30-10 victory. The game was never close, as the Saints ran their winning streak to six and are suddenly the second hottest team in the NFL behind Philadelphia. We’re pretty sure that regular readers of this section know exactly where we’re going here. In terms of setups for playing an overhyped team, this one fits almost every criterion we try to take advantage of. Not only is there an overreaction to the Saints and their winning streak but there is also an overreaction to the Bills getting manhandled in prime time by the Jets. That’s our prompt to move in hard.
The talk around the Saints surrounds their “new-found” defense. Four teams rank among the NFL's top 10 in both points scored and fewest points allowed and New Orleans is one of them. That’s a great selling point but we’re not ready to concede that New Orleans’ defense is as good as advertised. In their five straight wins, the Saints defeated, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Green Bay (minus Aaron Rodgers), Detroit, Miami and Carolina. Five of those teams (Detroit is the exception), can’t move five yards. When the Saints played Detroit, the Lions racked up 38 points. When the Saints played the Patriots and Vikes earlier this year, they surrendered 36 and 29 points respectively and went 0-2. Buffalo’s offense isn’t much better than the one’s mentioned above but the Saints have some things to deal with here in a mobile quarterback with a stud running back. The Saints will also have to deal with playing in Buffalo, where the track is slower and the temperatures are much colder. Buffalo is 4-0 at home. That counts for something. The last time the Bills were at home they beat the Raiders by 20 points. The last time Drew Brees played in Buffalo, he threw for 156 yards. Bills QB, Trent Edwards threw for 154 yards on that day. The game before that in Buffalo, Brees went 13-of-24 for 148 yards with no touchdowns. The point is that this is not a comfortable place for Brees to play in. Furthermore, Tyrod Taylor comes off his best game of the year when he passed for 285 yards and two scores and rushed for a third touchdown. That was his second week in a row with a rushing score and highest passing yardage. The trade for Kelvin Benjamin should start paying dividends this week too. The impressive winning pace that New Orleans is on right now is going to influence much of this market. The unimpressive display that the Bills put on in prime time last week is also going to influence the market. We are not going to take away from any team that puts together a six-game winning streak but the Saints road record when spotting points over the past three seasons from 2014 to 2016 is downright ugly and we’re not going to ignore that either. The small price one must lay with this enticing favorite is the final warning sign. Bills outright is the call.
TAMPA BAY +118 over N.Y. Jets
Word on the Jets refusal to quit this season made its way to the masses last Thursday night in a big prime time win over the Bills. At 4-5, the Jets have played themselves out of a top draft pick and they aren’t even the worst tenants in their own stadium. If fantasy is reality, and in the money hungry NFL it is, then Jets quarterback Josh McCown is a commodity worth selling, as he’s gotten noticed in daily fantasy circles as a cheap and productive option. Despite their record, the Jets are not a good football team. In addition to the Bills, the Jets have wins over the Browns, Jaguars and Dolphins and while the victory over the Jags looks impressive now, Gang Green caught Jacksonville in a vulnerable position, upon its return from London and without a bye. A deep look at the analytics shows the Jets are the bottom feeders many expected them to be by ranking 24th in total team DVOA, (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average). The highly praised McCown might be putting up quality fantasy numbers but in reality he’s the 27th DVOA quarterback and he’s a -121 yards in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). A negative DYAR suggests that just about any average Joe QB could do a better job. Comically, McCown is sandwiched between Brian Hoyer and Trevor Siemian, both of which have in fact been replaced. The Jets are not even close to being close to a .500 squad, thus, a correction is coming.
Tampa Bay again entered this season with high expectations, but at 2-6 it’s the same old disappointing Bucs. Tampa is riding a five-game losing streak and finally rode Jameis Winston until his shoulder practically separated from his torso. So now that Winston is out, journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick is in. On top of all that, star wide receiver, Mike Evans is suspended. Even with all of their tools in the box, the Bucs were an easy fade last week against the Saints and the market got paid. Without Winston or Evans, it doesn’t really do much good to dive into Tampa's decent offensive numbers but that has nothing to do with this choice. We’re in the over and under-reaction business and this is absolutely an overreaction to TB missing its two most high profile players. What we do know about the Buccaneers is that their stock is low, they’ve been ravaged by injuries and suspensions and they still have one of the worst defenses in the league. That, too has market influence and has helped to create this overreaction.
While it might not seem it, this game sets up perfectly for the Bucs. The deck looks totally stacked against them with their injuries and suspensions while the Jets are winning games and they’re coming off a big prime time win over the Bills, a team that was then 5-2 and perceived as difficult to beat. At the same time, the Bucs just got blown out by New Orleans and Carolina in back-to-weeks. Their #! QB is out but let us assure you that Winston wasn't effective with his shoulder hurting anyway and Ryan Fitzpatrick is not much of a step-down. Fitzpatrick came into the Week 6 game in Arizona and passed for 290 yards and three TD’s. That the New York Jets are favored on the road when they were a dog at home to Buffalo last week shows exactly how this erratic market fluctuates and reacts. This is a 100% overreaction to some very recent results and it prompts us to move in hard on the Bucs outright.
The Rest of the Games
Cincinnati +4½ over TENNESSEE
The Titans appear to be in a two-horse race with the Jaguars for the AFC South title after a 23-20 home win over the Ravens last Sunday. That score flatters Tennessee, as the Titans were outgained by Baltimore and lost the time of possession but won the always unpredictable turnover battle. The Titans last two wins have come by a total of six points, as they narrowly escaped Cleveland with a 12-9 victory in Week 9 but again took advantage of a 3-1 turnover advantage. While Tennessee is tied for the division lead at 5-3, a deeper look shows it is playing above its head. The Titans are the 16th DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) offense and 22nd DVOA defense and do not appear to be in good form despite their recent success.
There’s not much to say about the Bengals blowout loss to the Jags other than the market feasted on it. Cincy has been easy pickings after six straight losses as a pooch and that fact has not gone unnoticed. However, the Bengals are not completely incompetent despite what your thoughts on Andy Dalton might be. Defensively, the Bengals are in the top half of the league (14th) in total defensive DVOA and they are particularly tough against the run by sporting the league’s number seven unit.
The goods under the hood show these two teams are far more closely matched than this market believes. The Titans appeal is only enhanced by the fact that the market got easily paid off by fading the Bengals last week. Cincy has a marget target on its back, as it has yet to recover from its embarrassing start to the season. Cincinnati's stock is low and while the market perceives them to be one of the league’s worst teams, that is just not the case. Are the Bengals good? Of course not, but neither are the Titans. Take the points. Recommendation: Cincinnati +4.5 (No bets).
ATLANTA -3½ over Dallas
The Falcons appear to be in a total freefall after losing four of their last five games. In the market, Atlanta does not have a lot of appeal right now after failing to cover in all but two games this season including its last six contests. Perception is reality and right now you can forget the Super Bowl hangover, as Matt Ryan and company have looked like they’re still drunk after blowing the big game. While the Falcons 4-4 record is disappointing, they’ve only been outgained in two games this season and that was against the Patriots and Packers. The latter was a quality win, as it came before Aaron Rodgers went down. While Ryan and the offense have taken some heat, the Falcons are actually a top 10 (8th) DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and have the number five DVOA rushing attack. Finally, the Falcons offense is averaging 6.2 yards per play, which is tied for tops in the NFL with Kansas City.
The Cowboys got a nice home win over the Chiefs last Sunday, bringing their record to 5-3. With the NFC East leading Eagles in their sights, Dallas must finally forge ahead without star running back Ezekial Elliot. Zeke fought the law and after avoiding his punishment, the law finally won, at least for one week, as Elliot will finally serve some of his six game suspension. The Cowboys made more headlines off the field this week than on it, as the war brewing between Goodell and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has made its way to the mainstream. In case you missed it, Jones is threatening to sue the NFL and block a contract extension for the embattled Commish. Jerry's World is a circus show and this week has really hammered that point home.
If we are to look at recent form, this game looks like no contest, as the Cowboys are trending up while the Falcons have been knocked off their perch. Taking back points with the seemingly superior team is an appealing bet but Dallas will host a huge prime time game next Sunday night against the Eagles with the NFC title essentially on the line. We can’t help but wonder if the ‘Boys aren’t looking ahead to that contest in addition to dealing with the constant distractions around them. While Jerry's feud and Elliot’s suspension have been easy fodder for the talking heads, the oddsmaker didn’t flinch after the courts ruled Zeke out for Week 10, leaving this game at -3, right where it opened. If the books aren’t going to overreact, neither are we. However, we must be mindful of how the market has reacted to Dallas losing it's best offensive player and the action is trending in the Falcons direction. For that reason, this game will not make our board. Recommendation: Atlanta -3 -115 (No bets)
SAN FRANCISCO +112over N.Y. Giants
There are lots of moving parts here. First, the rumors/news/discussions surrounding the Giants this past week is how Eli Manning has lost it and how the team is in the market for another QB. There is even more speculation that the G-Men have quit on their coach, which is about the worst thing a team can do. A team in disarray is not one we want to get behind. The Giants are 1-7
The 49ers are a slim dog at home this week in what could very well be C.J. Beathard’s last start at quarterback this season. Jimmy Garoppolo is waiting in the wings and there are no indications of how HC Kyle Shanahan is going to play this. Shanahan does not want to put Garoppolo in danger out there when the game is so meaningless. On the other hand, the 49ers want to win and at some point, Shanahan has to teach them how to. Garoppolo may or may not play this week and that leaves us, as bettors, out of the loop. It’s simply not a game we want to get involved in because of all the unknowns here. A win is important for the 49ers, at least for their morale. The goal this week will be to determine which team has its mind right for this meaningless clash. In that respect, we have to trust the 49ers more because their future is bright and has direction while none of that applies to the Giants.
It's a bad look to get blown out at home like the G-Men did last week. On Sunday, New York got trucked 51-17 by the Los Angeles Rams. At least their early losses were close ones. In their last two games – both at home – New York has lost by a total of 75-24 and it would not surprise us one bit if they lost easy again here. Still, we’re not comfortable playing against New York because its stock is too low and maybe even lower than the 49ers stock. Selling low is not in our mantra, thus we’ll have to recommend the 49ers better state of mind. Recommendation: San Francisco +112 (No bets).
LOS ANGELES -10½ over Houston
Are the Rams the best team in the NFL? Well, if you put any stock in the analytics (and we do) then the numbers don’t lie. It’s astonishing how quickly the Rams have been able to shed the stink of mediocrity after years under former head coach Jeff Fisher. Last season, the Rams weren’t even average, they were downright terrible, ranking 30th in total DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average). As of this writing, the Rams are now number one and they are getting it done on all sides of the ball. The offense is 9th, the defense 3rd and their special teams lead the league in DVOA. Second-year quarterback Jared Goff, who Fisher deemed unready has been one of the league’s top passers this season as the fourth-ranked DVOA QB. Goff is also fifth in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) making him one of the more irreplaceable starting quarterbacks this season. Texans sensation Deshaun Watson was 11th in this stat category and look what has happened in Houston.
Bless the Texans defense for trying. On a somber Sunday where a stadium of 70,000 people came to mourn the loss of their newly minted star quarterback, this unit tried it’s best. With backup QB Tom Savage and the offense sputtering, the Texans D gave the fans some life with a defensive touchdown late in the first half. That was good enough to outscore the offense 7-0 at the midway point. However, the wheels came off the wagon after that, as Houston fell to Indy 20-14. With their season effectively over after the loss of Watson, we have to wonder how the Texans will find the fight to compete the rest of the way. The D has been ravaged by injuries and suspensions while the front office traded away arguably the best offensive tackle in the league just two weeks ago. It does no good to pour over the impressive numbers Watson put up because he was really a one-man show that made everyone on both sides of the ball better. In his two starts this season, Tom Savage has been complete garbage and he even admitted he played like “crap” last week, which will surely rally the troops around him. Like every team that has suffered a significant injury to their starting QB, the Texans were pulled into the Colin Kaepernick controversy. Head coach Bill O'Brien deflected those questions by saying that Kaep hasn’t played in a while and then the team proceeded to sign Josh Johnson, who hasn’t seen a down of NFL ball in four years. This is a sinking ship and there is not a number high enough that oddsmakers could post to entice us to back these Texans. Recommendation: L.A Rams -10½ (No bets).
L.A. Chargers +3½ over JACKSONVILLE
When we can get the superior QB with points it’s always worth having a look at. Quarterback play is still the Jags’ biggest weakness with Blake Bortles at the helm. Bortles leads an offense that ranked 15th in total DVOA but that is largely because of their run game. Bortles is 19th in total QB DVOA, 20th in DYAR and 19th in QBR. Bortles rank ranges in line with Carson Palmer and Eli Manning, two veteran QBs that have been skewered for their poor performance this season. The Jags stock is high after another good showing last week against the Bengals but it’s their defense that makes them difficult to bet against. Their offense is pedestrian at best.
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defense ranks second in the AFC right behind the Jags so there’s that. Philip Rivers can move the chains on anyone and now that he’s had two weeks to prepare for the Jags, don’t be surprised to see him put up some points. Furthermore, the Bolts have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL and we absolutely trust Rivers more than Bortles when the heat is on. Bortles has been an interception machine his entire career but has only thrown five picks this season. Bortles being hurried here might trigger some ghosts of his past. Lastly, the Jags have outscored their opponent, 80-16, in three of their past four games and when a team is dominating like that, you have liekly missed the chance to get behind them. Yeah, the Jags can win and cover here but the Chargers match up well for this one and we get some nice points behind a very underrated defense and better QB. Recommendation: L.A. Chargers +3½ (No bets).
Power Sports
Pittsburgh vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis +11.5
Though off a bye, this has all the makings of a "trap game" for Pittsburgh, who has not been good under Mike Tomlin when priced as a large road favorite. They're just 3-8 ATS L11 in that role including an outright loss to Chicago earlier in the year. I'm not saying the Black and Gold will lose this game, but they will certainly struggle to cover. Laying double digits on the road in this league is rare for a reason. League-wide. teams are just 9-15-1 ATS in that role since 2010. I recommend taking the points.
Indy did win last week, mind you, though it was against a Tom Savage-led Texans team. Somehow, this team has three wins despite the worst point differential in the league. (Of course, their other two wins were against the league's two winless teams, San Fran and Cleveland!). But still, it's worth mentioning the Colts are 12-3 ATS their L15 times as a home dog w/ 10 outright victories. Granted, Andrew Luck was the QB for many of those upsets. But, if anything, the Colts should be due for a "close loss" here. With 21 of the Steelers' last 26 games having stayed Under the total, another low scoring game would naturally lead to wanting to be on the underdog.
Half of Pittsburgh's wins have been by six points or less and none are by more than 17. So, at the very worst, the "back door" should be open late in this game. Also, the "vaunted" Steelers offense has not scored more than 29 pts in any game this season. Would that be enough to cover a spread this large? Probably not. In fact, the Steelers are only averaging 20.9 PPG for the year!
Jim Feist
Jets at Bucs
Pick: Under
Tampa Bay will be hard pressed to score points here on Sunday as their two best offensive weapons will miss this game. WR Mike Evans (Suspension) is out and QB Jameis Winston (Shoulder) is also expected to miss this contest. There were high expectations when the season began for the Bucs who are now 2-6 S/U and 1-6-1 ATS. Tampa has lost their last five games and is 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven. Meanwhile, the Jets are 4-5 S/U and 6-2-1 ATS. The Jets are 1-4 O/U their last five vs a team with a losing record. The Bucs are 1-6 O/U in their last seven home games. These teams have also gone UNDER in four of the last five meetings. Without their star players for Tampa Bay, I'm looking at a dead under in this contest.
Bruce Marshall
Packers at Bears
Pick: Under
Might be walking into a trap here as all it takes is a couple of big plays to blow out this "under" call at such a reduced price. But Bears should continue to scale back the "O" for Trubisky and not sure Pack could trade points if it tried with Hundley, but also get the feeling McCarthy will run a low-risk attack as well. This one could end in the low -to-mid teens.
DAVE COKIN
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
PLAY: BRONCOS +7.5
This will be a Pros vs. Joes game, with the public firing at will on New England and the sharper dollars showing on the Broncos. I really don’t read anything of consequence into that, as the public almost always bombs the Pats, and seriously, who can blame them? Additionally, Denver is a mess right now as they have no QB and have been really bad the last four games.
Nevertheless, I see the number being inflated here and trusting the math has worked very well for me in the NFL this season. I agree the Pats rate the chalk role but I’ve got them more in the range of -3.5. That probably seems low to the masses off the recent inept Denver form, along with New England having now won four straight.
But it’s not like the Patriots are obliterating the opposition. The only lopsided scoreboard wins were vs. the Falcons and Saints. One can easily argue the Pats were a little on the fortunate side in wins vs. the Chargers, Jets, the thriller against the Texans and a narrow escape at Tampa.
I expect New England to find a way to win this, but I’ll be surprised if it’s easy. Getting this many with the Broncos is a take for me.
Mike Lundin
Packers vs. Bears
Play: Bears -5½
The Green Bay Packers are predictably struggling with their star QB Aaron Rodgers out for the season with a broken collarbone. They've scored just a total of 44 points during a three-game slide, and here they'll face a Bears side that has allowed an average of just 15.8 ppg in four contests home at Soldier Field on the season. It's also worth noting that the Packers took a 30-17 beating at home against Detroit on Monday while Chicago is coming off its bye week.
Rest advantage Chicago, home field advantage Chicago, and we can also add the revenge factor since the Packers (with Rodgers under center) rolled to a 21-point victory over the Bears on Sept. 28. Payback time this Sunday, and I think this looks like a solid spot for Chicago.
Doug Upstone
New York at San Francisco
Play: New York -2½
The New York football Giants stink, we get that. Still, team like the Giants scoring 14-18 PPG, against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored, are 31-7 ATS, 81.6%, since 2008, including 4-0 this year!
Pro Computer Gambler
Saskatchewan vs. Ottawa
Play: Saskatchewan +2
FREE CFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: A favorite on a win streak of 3 or more is 34-69-4 (-3.32, 33.0%) ATS as long as the opponent isn't on a 5+ winning streak themselves. - Fade the Red Blacks. The Redblacks are 3-12 ATS (-6.00 ppg) since Jul 08, 2016 as a home favorite