Vic Duke
Jets vs. Bucs
Play: Jets -1
Tale of an overachiever (Jets) vs an underachiever (Bucs). Jets playing well on both sides of the ball and off a strong showing in Buffalo last Thursday. They had a few days extra rest to heal and prep for former Jet QB Fitzpatrick who gets the nod for injured Winston. Jets' defense studied him well and the former Jets' QB will be without the best WR Mike Evans (suspended). On the other hand, Jets' QB McCown has completed 70% of his passes with a respectable 13:7 TD:INT ratio. Jets 5-0 ATS in the last 5 in this series. And they're 3-1-1 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. TB should continue to struggle at home with their money burning 22-48-1 ATS home ledger.
TJ Pemberton
Saints vs. Bills
Play:Saints -3
The New Orleans Saints have now won six straight games heading into Week 10 of action. The Saints will visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday as a -2 point favorite. New Orleans is 6-2 on the season and are 1st in the NFC South. The Saints are 3-1 on the road this season. New Orleans beat the Bucs 30-10 last week at home. The Saints are led by QB Drew Brees who has 13 touchdowns on the season and 4 interceptions. The Saints ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards per game with an average of 392.5 yards per game. The Buffalo Bills are led by QB Tyrod Taylor who has thrown for 10 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Buffalo last played the Saints in 2013 and lost 35-17. Buffalo ranks 21st in the NFL in yards allowed per game. The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record & are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings & the favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Joe DelPopolo
Saints / Bills Under 48
Based on my Stat-Key Power Rating System and predictive math-model the under is the play in this one. Going to be a real cold day in Buffalo. Look for the Bills to play possession football and work the clock. The Bills defense is much better at home than on the road.
Brandon Shively
New Orleans vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo +3
Buffalo can really catch the Saints in a let down spot here. New Orleans has won 6 straight games, but traveling to Buffalo is never easy for any team.
On top of that, there is always a way to fluster Brees outside the dome. Buffalo’s defense is one to do so, as they are one of the best in the NFL when it comes to putting pressure in the backfield and really causing issues for opposing QBs.
This season, they are also allowing just 18 points per game, one of the best marks in the league. On top of that, a 4-0 home record has seen this offense flourish, putting up over 4 touchdowns per contest.
Will Rogers
Minnesota vs. Washington
Pick: Minnesota -125
The set-up: The 6-2 Minnesota Vikings are coming off a bye week and will try to extend (or at least maintain) their lead in the NFC North when the visit the 4-4 Washington Redskins Sunday afternoon at FedEx Field in Landover, Md. Minnesota lost key RB Dalvin Cook (rookie out of Florida St) early in the season and now QB Sam Bradford has joined him as being lost for the year. However, the Vikings are the clear favorite to win the NFC North (no otehr team owns a winning record) plus are a legitimate threat to contend for the NFC title. The Redskins are off a critical 17-14 win in Seattle over the Seahawks last Sunday but with the Eagles at 8-1, Washington's 4-4 record leaves them little margin for error in the NFC East. In fact, Washington's main focus in an effort to make the postseason is likely to find a way to navigate its way through a crowded wild card field.
Minnesota: The Vikings enter on a four-game winning streak and although Keenum has been steady (63.9% with 7 TDs and 3 INTs), by no means is his starting job safe. Bradford may be out for the season but a now-healthy Teddy Bridgewater is looming on the horizon. "We'll just see how it goes," head coach Mike Zimmer said, providing little clarity on the issue. "We'll see where we are at, where we're going. Case has done great. We'll just keep going from there and see how this thing all plays out." Keenum has been unspectacular during the team's win streak, averaging 213.76 YPG passing while throwing for four TDs against three INTs. Keenum (or Bridgewater) could sure use Cook these days, although McKinnon and Murray have had their moments. WR Adam Thielen has a team-leading 48 receptions (ranks sixth in the league with 627 yards) and fellow WR Stefon Diggs has 27 catches for 15.6 YPC with four TDs. TE Kyle Rudolph has 32 catches plus RB McKinnon has provided a boon in the passing game with 20 receptions in the last four games and four overall TDs in that span.However, it's the Minnesota D (see above) which has been the team's strength. The Vikings rank 4th in total D (282,1 YPG) and have held opponents to just 81.4 YPG on the ground (3rd-best).
Washington: The Redskins take the field with the better QB, as Kirk Cousins continues to impress all, except maybe his own organization. Despite all sorts of injuries to his receiving corps, Cousins is completing 67.9 percent with 13 TD and four INTs for a QB rating of 102.0. Heading into this game, TE Jordan Reed and WR Jamison Crowder are both nursing ailing hamstrings (availability for Sunday is in jeopardy) plus TE Vernon Davis is sporting a misshapen right hand that has ballooned due to swelling.Head coach Jay Gruden says he'll play and he did have a team-high six receptions plus 72 receiving yards last Sunday. Washington's running game is in much worse shape than Minnesota's (98.6 YPG ranks 22nd) and its defense is nowhere near as good, allowing 24.2 PPG (24th).
The pick: Despite playing in different divisions (Vikings in the NFC North and the Redskins in the NFC East), these teams are playing for the seventh time in eight years. The Vikings have won four of six and make it five of the last seven, here!
Carmine Bianco
Minnesota at Washington
Play: Minnesota -1.5
Sunday's Free Play is on the Vikings at they take on the Redskins as a short priced favorite and the opinion here is the Vikings tough defensive front line are likely to give a banged up Skins offensive line trouble all game while making it rough on Cousins to get consistant drives throughout this game on Sunday. We look for the Vikings D to contain the Redskins while the offense behind a healthy Diggs and Thielin get the Vikings offense on track.
Dr Bob
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
The Redskins got the win last week in Seattle, which may have masked their poor offensive line play. The past two weeks, Washington’s patchwork offensive line has allowed a sack rate of 13% and the run blocking hasn’t been any better with the Redskins gaining just 2.6 ypr. Shawn Lauvao, Brandon Scherff, and Trent Williams are questionable again this week and it could get ugly if those starters don’t play against Minnesota’s front seven who rank top 10 in both sack rate and run stopping.
The Vikings will have spent their bye week trying to get healthier at quarterback and looking for ways to improve their run game without Dalvin Cook, who was averaging 4.8 ypr before his injury. All other Vikings rushers gain just 3.7 ypr but Jerick McKinnon has shown promise as a pass catcher with 41 receiving yards per game since Cook’s injury. Washington’s defensive secondary is healthy again with both starting cornerbacks playing together for the first time in weeks last week at Seattle. That unit was the reason for the upset win and the defense will have to play well again this week since the offense could struggle again if at least some of the injured offensive line starters don’t suit up. I’ll pass but I’d lean with Washington if a couple of their injured linemen are cleared to play.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The defensive profiles in this matchup are quite similar. Jacksonville’s pass defense allows 4.3 yppp (1st) led by cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who is 3rd in the league in passer rating allowed. Los Angeles allows 5.6 yppp (6th) led by cornerback Casey Hayward, surrendering a catch rate of just 50%. Jacksonville ranks 1st in sack rate and Los Angeles ranks 3rd. However, it’s been a different story for both defenses in the ground game with the Jaguars rush defense ranking 31st and the Chargers rush defense ranking 29th. I expect to see both offenses focus on running the football.
Leonard Fournette will return in this game after sitting out last game for violating team rules. Fournette is gaining 4.6 ypr this season, which ranks 2nd among rushers with at least 100 attempts. Melvin Gordon looks to build off his best game of the season where he ran for 132 yards on 14 attempts against New England before the bye week, but his 4.0 ypr for the season suggests that that game may have been an aberration. My ratings favor Jacksonville to cover and I’ll lean with the Jags.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Lean – Cincinnati (+4.5) over TENNESSEE
The Titans will be the third top-10 defense in yards per play allowed that the Bengals have faced in the last four weeks and Cincinnati did not fare well is the first two games against the Steelers and Jaguars, gaining 3.5 and 4.0 yppl respectively. The Bengals offensive line has been their biggest weakness this year, as that unit has allowed a 9% sack rate (29th). The run blocking has been even worse as Cincinnati gains just 3.1 ypr, which is last in the league. I expect the Bengals offense to struggle again in this game.
Tennessee’s offense will also have a tough matchup against a Cincinnati defense ranked 3rd in yppl allowed. The Bengals are allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play (4th) and I expect the Titans to focus on their ground game. Tennessee has struggled running the ball lately – just 2.8 ypr in their last two games – but the Titans still rank 8th in yards per rush for the season. It could be a long day for the Titans offense if they can’t return to their early-season rushing success.
I think the line on this game is a bit high and Cincinnati applies to a 91-27-1 ATS contrary situation, so I will lean with the Bengals to put an end to their 3 game spread losing streak.
New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills
Lean at +3 – BUFFALO (+3/+2.5) over New Orleans
New Orleans has the best offense in the league, gaining 6.4 yards per play, and that success can be attributed to a more balanced approach than they’ve had in years past, as the Saints rank top 10 in both rushing and passing. The Bills defense ranks 9th against the run but have shown signs of vulnerability in pass defense, surrendering 6.3 yppp (20th).
Buffalo finally saw some turnover regression last week losing 3 fumbles in their loss to the Jets. However, the Bills still have by far the best turnover margin in the league and I think their offense is being overrated by the market because they are 16th in scoring while ranking just 26th in yards per play.
My model likes the under in this game but I’m passing for a variety of reasons. Buffalo’s offense is drastically different at home than they are on the road. The Bills home offense ranks 17th in yppl this season while their road offense ranks 31st, a trend continuing from last season where they ranked 5th at home and 27th on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo runs the ball 4th-most in the league and have a good matchup against a New Orleans defense allowing 4.7 ypr (27th). Also, the Saints season defensive numbers are helped slightly by their game against Brett Hundley.
Overall, my ratings favor New Orleans by 5 ½ points but Buffalo’s strong tendency to play better offensively at home leads me to think that 3 would be a fair number in this game. The Bills also apply to a 77-38-2 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on winning teams at home after losings straight up as a road favorite of 3 points or more in their previous game. New Orleans, meanwhile, applies to at 34-100-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation based on their big win over the Bucs last week. I’d lean with Buffalo based on the situations at +3 points.
Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Rams
My quarterback model makes Tom Savage about 7 points worse per game than DeShaun Watson and he certainly hasn’t played well in his limited action thus far (just 3.3 yards per pass play). Houston will need to establish the run to take some of the pressure off Savage and this week provides a good matchup against a Rams defense surrendering 4.6 ypr (27th). I expect the Texans to stick to the ground game as long as they can keep this game close, but if the Rams take a two-score lead, Savage will have a hard time bringing them back.
The Rams have the league’s best passing offense according to my metrics and they will get an excellent matchup this week. Houston’s defense is surrendering 7.0 yppp (28th) and have allowed a combined 9.5 yppp to the Seahawks and Colts the past 2 weeks. The Los Angeles offense averages 46 points per game and 11.5 yppp when facing pass defenses ranked in the bottom 10 this season. I can certainly envision a blowout win by the Rams but my model thinks the line is fair so I’ll pass.
Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons
Lean – ATLANTA (-3/-2.5) vs Dallas
The Falcons are 4-4 despite being one of only 3 teams in the league with a net yppl above +1.0. Atlanta’s offense ranks 2nd in yppl but the inability to convert short yardage situations has been a problem. The Falcons went 4 of 12 on 3rd down against Carolina last week converting just 2 of 7 opportunities with only one yard to gain for a first down. I expect an offense with the Falcons quality to perform better in short yardage situations moving forward.
Ezekiel Elliott leads the league’s best rushing attack despite all the distractions this season. The Cowboys have rushed for more than 100 yards in every game since week 3, where they rushed for 99 yards against Arizona, and the only team to shut down their ground game was Denver in week 2 when they fell behind early and finished the game with just 14 rushing attempts. The Falcons allow 4.2 ypr (20th) and I expect Elliott to continue his dominance in this game.
Dallas is a good team but Atlanta actually projects as the better team when factoring out the variance and my ratings favor the Falcons by 3 ½ points. I do expect Atlanta to start playing closer to their talent level and the Falcons do apply to a 98-43-1 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams with a horrible spread record against teams with a good spread mark – as is the case with these teams. I’ll lean with Atlanta at -3 or less.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
It looks like San Francisco fans will have to wait to see new quarterback Jimmy Garapollo as CJ Beathard gets the nod again this week. Beathard has an awful 4.6 yards per pass play average and I don’t expect him to continue as the starter much longer, no matter how complex Kyle Shanahan’s offense is to learn for Garapollo. The lone bright spot in the 49ers offense this season has been the emergence of running back Carlos Hyde. Hyde is 6th in the league in scrimmage yards and 3rd in receptions amongst running backs, providing a nice check-down option for Beathard. However, it could be difficult for Hyde this week against a Giants defenses allowing the 4th least receptions to opposing running backs.
The Giants offense has failed to reach 5.0 yppl in the three games since their top two receivers were injured. Eli Manning is having his worst season since his rookie year gaining just 5.4 yppp. Manning will have a good matchup this week against a San Francisco pass defense ranked 27th in my metrics and just lost good cover safety Jaquiski Tartt (just 6.1 yards per target allowed) to a season-ending broken forearm. The match up favors the Giants but the line has gone up and there is no value here. I’d actually lean with San Francisco is this line gets up to +3 points.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Lean – DENVER (+7.5) over New England
Denver has been plagued by an average turnover margin of -1.5 per game, this year’s Browns are the only other team in the last 5 seasons that low and I expect the Broncos to improve in the all-important turnover margin component going forward. Despite all their problems at quarterback, the Broncos offense still ranks 22nd in yards per play and their compensated yards per play differential is still positive. Denver is still a decent team if they stop turning the ball over and that struggling Broncos’ offense could find some success this week against a New England defense that is surrendering 6.7 yppl, which is by far the worst in the league. Brock Osweiler did not look good against the Eagles and his career yards per pass play is down to just 5.4 yppp but I expect Denver to focus on their ground game against a Patriots defense surrendering a league worst 5.1 ypr.
The Patriots are somehow 6-2 with a -0.7 net yppl, which speaks to how good an in-game coach Bill Belichick is. New England has relied on Tom Brady all season, as their passing offense ranks 2nd in my numbers, and while the Broncos ‘No Fly Zone’ passing defense hasn’t enjoyed as much success as in years past, they still rank 12th in yards per pass play allowed at 5.7 yppp. Denver is struggling but New England’s defense is still an issue and the Broncos are good enough defensively to keep the Pats’ attack in check. My ratings see some value with the Broncos at +7 or more.
Harry Bondi
Steelers / Colts Under 45
If you’ve been a regular reader of the Bondi Bulletin, you know that we’ve cashed all season long going under in Steeler games when they are playing on the road and we’ll go back to the well again today. Not only has Pittsburgh gone under in all five road games this season but dating back the last three years they are 5-20 to the under when playing away from home. With Pittsburgh averaging 20.2 points per game on the road and the defense ranked No. 4 in the NFL, we expect another low-scoring affair today in Indy, especially when you consider the Colts have scored 0, 18, and 9 points in their three games against Top 10 defenses (Rams, Seattle, Jags). Go under!
Nelly
Cleveland Browns + over Detroit Lions
This could be a favorable opportunity for the Browns to break their winless start to the season. The team has had a long layoff after playing a competitive game in London while the Lions had a critical game with the Packers Monday night to close Week 9. The Lions broke their three-game losing streak with a 30-17 win on Monday but they faced a struggling Green Bay offense now forced to rely on a very inexperienced Brett Hundley. The Browns have the league’s best run defense allowing just 2.9 yards per rush going against a Lions team that struggles to run the ball as this game will be pinned entirely on Matthew Stafford. The franchise quarterback can win games by himself but he has accounted for 10 turnovers in eight games this season and is completing passes at a much lower rate than the past two seasons. The Browns have the superior pass defense in this game as well as this is a Detroit defense that has allowed 29 points per game the past four contests. The Lions are on a 3-8 ATS run as a favorite of 7 or more points and coming off a pair of heavyweight primetime national TV games this could be a flat spot on the schedule in-between key division road games and playing on a short week after winning at Lambeau Field for just the second time in 27 tries. Detroit is also on a 19-26-1 ATS run as a favorite since 2012 and this 4-4 squad with marginal statistics will be a bigger favorite than any Lions team has been since 1996 if the line closes above 10.
Jeff Benton
Your Under play of the week for Week Ten in the NFL is Pittsburgh-Indianapolis to hold Low.
The Steelers have been off since their Thursday night 20-15 win at Detroit - another Under - as Pittsburgh's totals mark this season shows 7 of the Steelers 8 games contested as having held Under the posted price!
The Colts and Jacoby Brissett are still getting a feel for one another, and the points have not been adding up in their games either, as they enter this Sunday home contest having played Under the total in 2 of their last 3 games.
It is highly unlikely that the Steelers defense is going to give Brissett too many sniffs at the end-zone this afternoon.
Last year when these teams faced each other, the game held Under the total. I think we are going to see a repeat of last year's lower-scoring game this afternoon at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Steelers-Colts go Low on Week Ten.
3* PITTSBURGH-INDIANAPOLIS UNDER
Tommy Brunson
Things going pretty well for the 5-3 Jags who play this home game against the Chargers off a pair of wins and covers over Indianapolis and Cincinnati.
Even those Los Angeles is 3-5 on the season, this is a bit of a "step up" game for Jacksonville, as the Bolts went to their bye-week with wins and covers in 3 of their last 4, losing only to the Patriots in that stretch.
The Chargers present a huge challenge for Blake Bortles who is still not the reliable QB one would have hoped he would be at this time in his career. Bortles does not like to be rushed, and that is exactly what Los Angeles does best, as the Chargers own 26 sacks already this season which is good for 4th in the League. Expect a few more in store for Mr. Bortles this afternoon.
For some strange scheduling reason this is the 5th year in a row these teams will face one another, and it has been a series that has been owned by the Chargers, as they are 6-0 both straight up and against the spread against the Jaguars since 2010.
Throw in the Chargers 23-12-1 spread mark when listed as the underdog, and a strong case can be made for backing the rested underdog today.
4* L.A. CHARGERS
Joey Juice
New York Jets travel to Tampa to face the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in a game that will help define both of these teams going forward this season.
Don't look now but the Jets are actually for real. They are coming off an impressive 34-21 home win over the surging Bills, while the Buccaneers come in off a 30-10 road loss at New Orleans. So the Jets will come into this one with momentum, while Tampa Bay must be questioning the true viability of their squad at this point after last week's humbling loss and an overall season full of struggles.
A look inside the numbers shows a strong path for the Jets. New York has been nothing short of a Workhorse for gamblers so far this season. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win
Tampa Bay is historically an ugly team to bet at home, they are 22-48-1 ATS in their last 71 home games. That is disgusting.
Bet the Jets.
2* N.Y. JETS
Eric Schroeder
I won't get into this freebie in depth, as it's a complimentary winner, and my reasoning is pretty cut and dry, but I like the Dallas Cowboys on the road against the Atlanta Falcons.
With Ezekiel Elliott finally suspended, the Cowboys need to answer that, right? Well that just means we're going to see Alfred Morris, who laid into a reporter who asked him a question that made it seem like he is a downgrade. Morris told the inquirer: "It's kind of insulting because we show up every single day and work hard, bust our butt. It's very insulting, because we're pros."
This guy is a workaholic, and he will fill the absence just fine, balancing the offense for Dak Prescott.
The Falcons are only 1-2 at home and will play four of their next five in their spiffy new stadium in Atlanta. My money is on Prescott continuing his tear and making Atlanta's home woes worse.
Prescott has thrown 13 touchdowns, versus just two interceptions in his last six games. His 16 TD passes overall are tied for fifth in the league, while his 10 rushing TDs since 2016 are the most by a QB in the league. Adding to the rushing dilemma, make note Prescott has a rushing touchdown in two of the team's last three road games.
Take Dallas here, as it will answer the bell.
5* COWBOYS
Jack Brayman
On the heels of telling you Miami, Florida would trounce Notre Dame, my free winner is on the San Francisco 49ers over the New York Giants. Remember when this was a must-watch on Monday Night Football? Now it's a battle of cellar-dwellers, as both teams are nearing rock bottom.
I'll be very brief about this, as I think if there were ever a time the Niners could take advantage of a team and score a dominating win, it's tonight against the Giants.
After suffering a 51-17 drubbing at the hands of the Rams last Sunday - and that was coming after a bye week - we heard from multiple Giants players who said head coach Ben McAdoo has "lost the locker room." That's not good, and having to travel across time zones and play a later game, they will stumble again.
This is the final blow, that will add an exclamation point to just how bad the Giants are this season.
3* 49ERS
Brandon Lee
Cowboys vs. Falcons
Play: Falcons -3
The Cowboys are getting way too much respect here on the road against a hungry Falcons team without Ezekiel Elliott. So much of what makes Dallas a great team stems from Elliott. Not only his production running the ball, but how opposing defenses have to load the box, which opens up those passing lanes for Prescott. Add in the Cowboys being without left tackle Tyron Smith and two of their top receivers in Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams are both nursing ankle injuries and I think Dallas really struggles to move the ball in this one.
While Atlanta's offense isn't putting up ridiculous numbers like they were a season ago, this is still one of the best offenses in the league. The Falcons rank 5th in the NFL with an average of 372 yards/game and are poised for one of those breakout performances. I believe it comes here against a Cowboys defense that will have to spend a lot more time on the field now that the offense won't be eating up the clock with Elliott and the running game.
Cowboys are a huge public team, which is why we aren't seeing a much bigger line here and getting so much value with Atlanta. Dallas has covered 3 straight games, but that sets them up in a great situation to fade them, as they are a mere 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games when they have covered 3 of their last 4.