Tony Karpinski
Bengals vs. Titans
Play: Titans -4
This Tennessee team is playing very good, they can play with the best of them, they can hang with the other top ended teams in the league. Cincinnati is not a top ended team with just a 3-5 record - and scoring just 16 ppg - is not a huge concern. I really like the instinct that Tennessee has been playing with. Kevin Byard has a passion and that's something that Tennessee had been missing, especially on the defensive side. If Joe Mixon can actually hit his holes, and follow his blocks - this could be a rough and tight game. But Cincinnati has only been getting around 3 YPC as a team - and Mixon has not been great with making the move to keep the chains moving on 3rd down either, with a sad 2.9 yds/carry and 36 rushing yds/game. With their poor scoring production on the season - and their leading 3rd down rusher not getting a longer run over 7 yds over the last 2 games - Cincinnati is going to have a tough time sealing the deal. Titans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Tennessee wins by 10 or more here.
Mike Anthony
New Orleans vs. Buffalo
Play: New Orleans -3
New Orleans makes it difficult for opponents to take it to the air vs them, with their 12th ranked pass defense. New Orleans has not allowed more than 17 pts in a game since their shootout when they played Detroit. The Saints have been excellent with powerful scoring and defending the ball as proven with their 6 game winning streak. The Bills tight ends cannot take on more direct receiving responsibilities for the team, as the best deep threats. When the Saints start scoring in bunches - New Orleans presents a real challenge for teams to stay with them. And the fact is - the Bills defense is good, but is not consistent enough with games giving up big play production. Kelvin Benjamin is a great upgrade as a desperately needed WR1 for Tyrod Taylor to sling the ball to, but vs the Saints is going to be tough. Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record New Orleans wins giving the points
Frank Jordan
New York vs. San Francisco
Play: New York -2.5
This is an odd game where the winner loses and the loser wins. The Giants come in at 1-7 and the 49ers are 0-9 and are fighting for the top spot in the upcoming NFL draft. San Francisco has been outscored by 96 points in their nine losses which is over 10 points a game while the Giants have been outscored by 78 points in their eight games which is just under 10 points a game. The Giants lone win has come on the road when they won at Denver and this is their chance to make it two in a row. The Giants had a rough start to their season losing some close games and then losing four receivers in one game with three of them going down for the season including Odell Beckham Jr. San Francisco traded for Jimmy Garoppolo, but don't expect to play him until week 12 so they will continue to turn to Beathard. Eli Manning has 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions against San Francisco, but has enjoyed success against them going 5-2 in their seven matchups. Look for Eli to continue to improve connections with the young receivers and this time hit Engram and King often along with a running game from Perkins as they put up some points and give the defense a lead in which to play with and make some plays as the Giants win 28-17. Play NY Giants
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -2 over Saskatchewan
The big question among Roughrider supporters last week was whether they wanted their team to win and stay in the West bracket in the CFL playoffs or lose and take what appeared to be an easier road to the Grey Cup through the East Division. The Riders left nothing to chance, as they dropped a 28-13 decision at home to the Eskimos securing their spot in Ottawa for today’s East Semi Final. With that loss last weekend, the Riders brought their regular season record to 10-8, but many questions still surround Saskatchewan. We’ve said it before, "if you’ve got two quarterbacks, you’ve got no quarterbacks", and while veteran Keven Glenn will start this game, one has to wonder how long head coach Chris Jones will stick with him after flip flopping between Glenn and backup Brandon Bridge throughout the second half of the season. Even last week, the Roughriders started Glenn, who went 5 for 10 for 63 yards before getting the hook. The ‘Riders run game also has more questions than answers, as both Trent Richardson and Cameron Marshall, the team's primary backs in 2017 are off the playoff roster.
The CFL is a nine-team league and because of this, its unbalanced schedule is full of wonky business and the Redblacks know that first hand after playing just two games in the last month, wrapping up their season October 27th. That lack of action has been a major talking point in the Ottawa papers, as the Redblacks try to make sure they don’t come out flat for this first round playoff game. Although unusual, the rest may have come at the perfect time, as the Redblacks have been able to lick their wounds. Veteran lineman, Sir Vincent Rogers, and receiver Josh Stangby will be ready to suit up today. Rogers hasn’t played since the third week of September and Stangby will help bolster a receiving core that will still be without all-star Brad Sinopoli, as well as being the team's lead returner. Believe it or not, this will be Ottawa quarterback Trevor Harris’s first ever playoff start, but the CFL’s co-leader in touchdowns this season finally has a chance to prove himself without Hank Burris looking over his shoulder. Harris was an impressive 75.8% of his passes on first down and with the late season emergence of runner William Powell, who rushed for over 100 yards in four of Ottawa’s last six games, this team has to tools to keep the chains moving all day.
Karma is a funny thing. Whether consciously or unconsciously, the Roughriders have embarked down what most pundits consider to be the easier road to the Grey Cup by avoiding the Bombers in the West Semi Final, instead, the Riders are heading East where a .500 record was good enough for first place. However, in 20 years since the crossover became the norm, nine teams have made the flip, and nine times, those teams have failed to reach the Grey Cup. Now that trend has nothing to do with today’s contest, but it goes to show that taking the perceived weaker path to the league final might actually be more difficult. These two teams are very familiar with each other after two close games this season. On September 29th in Ottawa, the Riders rallied with 11-points in the fourth quarter to steal a victory 18-17. In Regina on October 13th, the Redblacks returned the favor and clinched a playoff berth with a double digit fourth quarter comeback of their own, to down the Riders 33-32. Two games separated by two points, thus, it does not get much closer than that. What might be more impressive for Ottawa is that the win on the prairies came with Trevor Harris sidelined and third stringer Ryan Lindley behind center. The tailback Powell set a franchise rushing record racking up 187 in that game as well. After two razor thin decisions, taking back points with the visiting Roughriders looks appealing, especially considering their favorable road record but after a sluggish start to the season, the Redblacks are in fine form after winning three straight to finish the year. We will gladly lay this small price with the superior QB at home. With their recent playoff pedigree combined with health and recent form, the defending champs are being sold short here and we’re on it.
Bob Balfe
Steelers -10
Indianapolis came into the season with so many new faces on defense and now due to injury some of these names are unrecognizable. Pittsburgh is loaded at the offensive line, running back and receiver position. There is just no way this team is not going to score today. The Colts on offense are going to have a tough time throwing the ball against all of these veterans in the Steelers Secondary. The Colts are out classed today in all phases of the game. This should be a big double digit Pittsburgh win.
Chris Jordan
My first free winner for Sunday, off the early card, is going to be the Minnesota Vikings laying the small road chalk at Washington against the Redskins.
I'm not getting caught in this trap today, like so many squares will, as the Vikings are the smarter play with the better offense, and most certainly the most stringent defense.
Minnesota has gotten solid quarterback play from Case Keenum, who has thrown for 1,443 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions in his past six games.
On the other side of the ball, I see the Vikings’ defensive front making life rough for Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins behind a dinged-up offensive line.
Now, if the Redskins were healthy, I’d strongly consider choosing them, but I’m not sold they've got the talent and depth to overcome injuries and these hungry Vikings, who arrive in the nation's capital on a four-game winning streak on the field and 36-15 ATS streak overall.
Washington is mired in ATS slides of 1-5 at home, 2-5 against the NFC and 1-4 overall. I'm taking the road team here, and be wary of line movements, and be sure you're laying just -2'.
2* VIKINGS
With my second free pick on Sunday, I'm laying the big number with the Los Angeles Rams over the sad Houston Texans. Anyone else notice we're 11 days removed from Houston's baseball team winning the World Series from Los Angeles' baseball team? Thought I'd throw that out there, as I'm thinking the L.A. crowd won't be too nice.
It's a big number to lay, but I also see the third-best offense in the league taking advantage of a downtrodden team that has the 21st-ranked passing defense, and comes in after losing to an even worse Indianapolis Colts team.
The Rams (6-2), meanwhile, are in after a 51-17 rout of the New York Giants. They're one of the more efficient offensive teams in the NFL, ranking in the top 10 with both their rushing and passing games.
If Deshaun Watson were still active, I'd ignore a line like this, as the Texans rank third in the league with 28.6 points per game. But now this team is stagnant and will struggle to score. That won't bode well against the Rams, who tops in the league with 32.9 points per game. They also have a defense that is allowing 11 points per game over their last four outings, with at least two sacks per game.
Take the Rams as my late freebie.
4* RAMS
The Real Animal
Minnesota -2
Under Coach Zimmer, Minnesota is 28-8 ATS in non-divisional games including 9-1 ATS if the opponent is off a win. Washington won a miracle last week at Seattle going 70 yards in just under :35 for the game-winning score. They were out-gained by nearly 200 total yards and Seattle dropped at least three potential interceptions. The offensive line was without three starters and the Redskins overall are just beat up missing six starters. The Vikings are off a bye week allowing their offensive line to heal up. Plus Teddy Bridgewater is actually the back-up quarterback after being activated this week. Keenum played well in London before the bye week with 288 passing yards and two touchdowns, albeit versus Cleveland. The Redskins have allowed 26.8 points per game in their last five. Cousins is a little tough to handicap though so don't go nuts here. Go figure it: Washington has lost six straight games after playing the Seahawks. Minnesota plays very tough defense holding four of their last five opponents to either their season-low or second-lowest game in term of yardage. I never mind opposing a team that comes off a miracle win and Washington's unlikely victory at Seattle snapped a four-game ATS slide too.
Greg Smith
Patriots vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos +7.5
After Denver got man handled last week. I’m expecting great effort from them. Although the Pats will prepare as always i think the better defense steps up for a big game. My math has the Pats as only by 3 and my situational index favors the Broncos too. Take Denver.
Tony Finn
Cincinnati at Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -4.5
Cincinnati plays the role of visitor against Tennessee (-4.5, 40.5) with a scheduled 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. As the Titans continue to regain their health they are becoming a more consistent and balanced team. Tennessee is looking to win their fourth straight against a struggling and desperate Cincinnati troupe on Sunday. Early Kick NFL Free Pick: Bengals at Titans.
This year’s version of the Andy Dalton offense has been nothing short of anemic. The Bengals have been ridiculously inept running the football. Rookie Joe Mixon leads the team in rushing with just 284 yards and with that comes less than 3 yards per carry on average. Wide out A.J. Green has been invisible because the offense can’t establish any form of a rushing attack and the defense isn’t forcing three-and-outs nor turnovers.
The Titans are competing for a division title. They play a physical AFC North opponent for the third straight week. And while Tennessee has done little to impress on either side of the ball the last month but they continue to win. The Titans defeated an injury plagued Indianapolis Colts club four weeks ago. They followed that victory with wins over Cleveland and Baltimore by three points each and their “W” against the winless Browns took overtime.
The team’s success in Nashville is undisputed. The Titans have won seven of their last eight home events including three straight. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is fully recovered from a hamstring injury and been at his best playing at Nissan Stadium. Mariota has thrown 16 touchdown passes against three interceptions in his last nine games in Nashville.
Neither the Titan’s defense nor the offense has been consistent this year but both continue to get healthy which is key entering the late November and December portion of the schedule.
Cincinnati is 8-14-1 straight up and 9-14 against the spread in Dalton’s last twenty-three starts. When Marvin Lewis and Dalton square off against teams with a winning percentages of .501 or better the two have combined to go 2-8-1 SU and 3-8 ATS in the team’s last 11 contests.
While the Titans have not excelled at getting to the quarterback this season they should find success today against a scuffling Bengals offensive line. The Titans rank 29th in the league in sacks. But Jurrell Casey and Derrick Morgan have an opportunity to improve that ranking against a down-and-out Cincinnati offensive line.
The growth of Titans’ rookie wide receiver Corey Davis shows itself today. The long and lanky Davis will likely receive man-coverage from a much smaller cornerback Adam Jones. Expect to see Mariota utilize Davis’ size with a large number of targets in his rookie receivers direction today taking advantage of the size mismatch.
Wunderdog
S. Utah @ Boise St
Pick: Under 164
Southern Utah is coming off a 6-27 season and its leading scorer, Randy Onwuasor, transferred to another school. The Thunderbirds return three starters, but the team shot only 38 percent its first game against Oregon State on Friday, so that might not be good news. Bosie State went 20-12 overall in 2016-17 and the Broncos lost two of their best shooters, Nick Duncan and James Reid, who both graduated. Center Robin Jorch averaged only 2.3 points in 8.8 minutes last season. Boise State went UNDER three of its last five games last season and its defense combined with the lack of offensive firepower from Southern Utah makes this a low-scoring game. The Broncos also allowed only 65 points in its season opener against Eastern Oregon.
OC Dooley
Browns +10
This is a previously "unscheduled" Best Bet reacting to shocking "offshore" developments. Even though Cleveland is on a 4-41 long term skid the offshore number (game opened at most locations up at 12 points) has gone in the direction of the lowly Browns. In an IRONIC twist this 4-41 skid by Cleveland actually matches the Lions (2007 through 2010) for worst in the HISTORY of the NFL. Today is also a RARE "series" clash as the pair have not faced each other since 2013 (only 4 head on meetings since 2001) and the most recent VISIT by Cleveland (2009) resulted in a ONE POINT game. The key to this game is that Cleveland is coming off a BYE week (post London) where NUMBER ONE OVERALL draft pick (defensive end Myles Garrett) has been given a chance to get healthy. In addition Cleveland GETS BACK another defender (safety Jabrill Peppers) after missing two games due to injury. The "extra week" has also given the Browns extra time to develop quarterback DeShone Kizer. Another critical factor is EMOTIONAL LETDOWN factor involving Detroit who on the PRIMETIME stage just successfully covered as a road favorite against mighty Green Bay. The Lions are the only team in the NFC North without a quarterback issue and now face only ONE opponent down the stretch with an above .500 record which again sets us up for a "letdown" issue. Not only is Detroit laying points for only the THIRD time this campaign, spanning the past TWENTY FIVE YEARS they are a dreadful 3-13 ATS when off a DOUBLE DIGIT margin of victory. Dating all the way back to the 1983 campaign teams like Cleveland in the month of NOVEMBER (off at least 7 consecutive losses) have COVERED at an 80-PERCENT clip (25-6 against the spread). Since Cleveland has MATCHED Detroit for all-time NFL futility and today is a RARE meeting I am also placing a "money line" wager (+395) on the Browns