Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, November 13th, 2016

Art Aronson

Chiefs vs. Panthers
Play: Panthers -3

From a scheduling stand point, we think this is a very strong play. The Panthers entered their bye-week sitting at 1-5, but have come out on the other side with two straight wins, including a 13-10 effort over the Rams last Sunday. With a big game against rival New Orleans next week, we’re expecting the home side to be extremely focused on the task at hand. Despite the slow start, the NFC South is still up for grabs and the Panthers will be looking to keep the momentum rolling. Meanwhile the Chiefs come to town off four straight wins, including a satisfying victory at home over Jacksonville last week. All signs point to a classic letdown spot for the visitors in our opinion.

Sleepyj

Pittsburgh -2.5

My line for this game is 6.5....If ever the Cowboys would have a stumble letdown game, this would be the one....Cowboys have been very good this year, but I worry about the level of competition they have faced this year overall.....They haven't had a true test on the road with a team with a good offense and good defense IMO...Yes they played the Packers and won, but GB is in a real funk...I'm not taking anything away from Dallas, but I feel the schedule was loaded with a bunch of teams with losing records or piss poor defenses...This is a real test for the Cowboys and Pitt now has their backs up against the wall..That usually spells disaster for a team against Pitt..Plus they are at home and coming off a 3rd loss..Big Ben will be back in the saddle again and the Steelers offense last week looked like it was stuck in mud....This is a typical god spot though for the Steelers..They seem to beat the good teams and struggle with teams they should beat...Preskott has been very good, but I feel we might just see that clunker game from him..Pitt has a pretty good rush defense and if they can limited Elliot from having a big game, it will be on the shoulders of Preskott on the road..I don't like the situation for the Cowboys...Big Ben will have his legs under him for this game after a week of practice once again..I feel this line is very short and needing only 3 or more to get us the win looks good...7-1 record for Dallas is very sharp, but I feel that record is baked into this incorrect line....I got this one Pitt 31-20

John Ryan

Packers vs. Titans
Play: Titans +3

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS since 1983 (6-1 last 3 seasons) good for 83.6% winners. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons good for 82.8% winners. Play against any team (GREEN BAY) - off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992. Packers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points: The Titans were shredded for 196 yards rushing by Chargers running back Melvin Gordon but faces a Green Bay backfield that is in shambles. The Packers have dropped three of the past four while allowing at least 30 points in each of the losses. Marcus Mariota, accounted for four touchdowns and threw for a season-high 313 yards at San Diego, has connected on five scoring passes to Rishard Matthews in the last five games. Titans LB Brian Orapko is tied for sixth in the NFL with seven sacks.

Mike Lundin

Falcons vs. Eagles
Play: Falcons -115

The Philadelphia Eagles have dropped four of their last five games and failed to cover the spread in each defeat. They host an Atlanta Falcons team coming off back-to-back wins against Green Bay and Tampa Bay here in Week 10, and I like the Falcons in this matchup. In fact, I like them so much that I have this as an 8*-rated play rather than my normal 5*-rating for my free picks.

Atlanta's QB Matt Ryan is having a terrific season, throwing for 2,980 yards and 23 touchdowns with only four interceptions. Philly's signal caller Carson Wentz meanwhile has struggled lately, and he has the the second worst QB rating in the NFL through his last three games. Atlanta's D is far from the best in the league, but considering Philly's lack of running game it can focus completely on getting to the shell shocked Wentz.

Philly is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS home at Lincoln Financial Field on the season, but keep in mind that Atlanta is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on the road. The Eagles are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and I think Atlanta will prove to be too much to handle here for the free falling Eagles.

Dwayne Bryant

San Francisco at Arizona
Play: Under 48

These two met in San Francisco on a Thursday night back in Week 5, with the Cardinals earning the 33-21 victory. The quarterback matchup in that first meeting was Blaine Gabbert versus Drew Stanton. This game will feature a QB matchup of Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer.

In that Week 5 meeting, the 49ers defense had absolutely no answer for Cardinals running back David Johnson, who torched the Niner D for 157 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The pitiful 49ers defense will make stopping Johnson a priority, but I doubt it will matter.

The betting public will see the 54 points scored in the first meeting (Gabbert/Stanton), consider the porous 49ers defense, and look to bet the Over with Palmer now back under center for Arizona. And let’s face it, the public doesn’t need much incentive to bet Overs. I think that’s a mistake here.

One aspect the public probably won’t consider is the stout Arizona defense. Take away the game against New England in the season opener, and Arizona has allowed just 8.25 points per game at home this season.

I expect Arizona to once again feature David Johnson. That keeps the clock moving. The 49ers offense may have looked good against the Saints last Sunday, but there’s a wide gap between the Saints defense and this Arizona stop unit.

I can see Arizona winning in a blowout, but I hate laying double digits in the NFL. A wide margin should lead to a clock-burning fourth quarter. These games usually end up being dog & Over or favorite & Under. Since I expect the chalk to roll here but don’t wish to lay the heavy lumber, I see the total as the better play.

Buster Sports

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -13.5

The Arizona Cardinals come out of their bye week in serious trouble, and the playoffs look at little out of reach. Today they look to get a win streak going and get on a run to try and make the playoffs. Who better to get it started with than the SF 49ers. The 49ers have really looked awful since winning their first game of the year. In their last 4 games they have given up 33,45,34 and 41 points respectively. The Cardinals put up 33 last time in San Francisco and that was with Drew Stanton at QB. Actually both teams will have different QB's today with Colin Kaepernick replacing Blaine Gabbert for SF. Kaeparnick still isn't the same guy he was when he took the 49ers to the Super Bowl. The last time he played in Arizona it was a nightmare for him as the Cardinals beat the 49ers 47-7. We see a Cardinal team desperate to make a statement taking out their frustrations against the lowly 49ers. The line is 13 1/2 at the time of this writing. We normally would not lay these many points at anytime but the situation today has us very comfortable in doing so. We see another blowout in Arizona today.

Executive Sports

Packers at Titans
Play: Under 49.5

Play Under Any team against the total (GREEN BAY) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game.

(46-18, 72% over the last 10 seasons.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-9).

Against teams at .500 or better playing at home this season Tennessee is averaging scoring only 13 points per game.

Mike Rose

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars -2

The Houston Texans will attempt to take on step closer towards sweeping the Jacksonville Jaguars for a third straight season when the AFC South rivals collide on the gridiron in Week 10. The Texans are currently sitting pretty atop the division standings while the Jags bring up the rear and enter this tilt amidst a three game losing streak. Jacksonville has been one of the biggest disappointments and money burners for NFL bettors this season, but still has time to turn its season around.

It truly is a shame what has become of the Jaguars this season. The franchise went out and spent a boatload of money in the offseason to improve the defense, and though the numbers don’t reflect it, it’s been a much better overall unit. Ranking No. 25 in total defense has more to do with the offense setting the opposition up with great field position due to turnovers than it does with the unit routinely allowing opposing offenses to go up and down the field and score.

The “MO” on Houston has been to back it at home and fade it when away from the comforts of NRG Stadium. Though the Texans have won and covered each of their two games played off a bye on the road under O’Brien, I’ll be on the fade train this week with Jacksonville returning home off a frustrating loss to the Chiefs.

Bryan Leonard

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -3

Make no mistake, the Chiefs have been winning because of a plus 13 turnover margin. Is that sustainable? Not likely. Last year Kansas City ended the year +14, but the prior year it had a -3 deficit. KC was +18 in 2013, but -24 the prior season. So you can tell that turnovers for the most part are random, especially fumbles. Digging deeper we find that the Chiefs this year are 6-2 on the season, but are just 4-4 when looking at yards per play statistics. When KC fails to win the turnover battle it is 0-3 on the season.

The Panthers are just 3-5 on the year, and 4-4 in yards per play analysis. When looking at explosive plays Carolina has an advantage of three on the season vs the Chiefs. The big key is turnover margin in which KC has a whopping 19 advantage over Carolina. As we know that type of edge is not sustainable, which gives us a solid play here on the Panthers.

Randall the Handle

THE BEST BETS

Texans (5-3) at Jaguars (2-6)

As poor as the Jaguars appear to be, we’re willing to take this leap of faith. The timing seems right: Jacksonville is home for only the second time in its past six games. The four road games prior to today included a trip to London, an away win in Chicago, at Tennessee on a short week and then last week’s defeat at Kansas City. The latest loss saw the Jags outgain the Chiefs 449-231 while amassing 25 first downs to 10 for their host. Three lost fumbles and an interception did the Jags in on that day. Most notable is the sudden surge to a lethargic offence after Nathaniel Hackett replaced offensive coordinator Greg Olson. RB Chris Ivory cracked the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time and he could be effective against Houston’s 28th-ranked run defence. As mistake prone as Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has been, he’s still better than an inept Brock Osweiler as Houston’s quarterback has as many touchdown passes as interceptions (nine) and he has yet to win on the road this year in his new uniform. TAKING: JAGUARS -1½

Dolphins (4-4) at Chargers (4-5)

Chargers came through for us in this space last week as a favourite in a similar price range. But loyalties are temporary when it comes to picking against pointspreads and as a result, we won’t feel guilty when fading the Bolts this weekend. San Diego is known for playing close games, uncanny really. Even when scoring 43 last week and winning by eight, the Titans were knocking on the door near the end. Eight of nine San Diego games this season have been decided by one possession. It’s hard to imagine that a red-hot Miami team can’t stay close here or win this one outright. The Dolphins have improved greatly since the emergence of RB Jay Ajayi and not coincidently since Miami’s O-line has been back to full strength. Ajayi’s production and workload has taken pressure of QB Ryan Tannehill as the current three-game win streak has not included an interception. Fins should get some passing opportunities against San Diego’s iffy secondary. The Fish are 0-3 on road but that was at New England, Seattle and then Cincy on a short week. TAKING: DOLPHINS +4

Seahawks (5-2-1) at Patriots (7-1)

At least the schedule maker likes the Patriots, for this week anyway. Not only do the Seahawks have to fly all the way east on a short week to play the league’s top team, they arrive in New England with the Pats having had an extra week to prepare for their arrival. While many references will be made to the cliff-hanger Super Bowl that these two played in just two seasons ago, it will have no bearing on this contest. New England is equal or stronger than that group while the same can’t be said of the Seahawks. Seattle’s defence remains stellar, but stopping Tom Brady and his scary good offence is no easy task. Seattle’s offence is where the most notable difference is. The Seahawks have a brutal offensive line. That deficiency has sunk Seattle’s ground game to a 30th-ranked unit, averaging just 75 yards per game. Playing good ‘D’ and waiting for an opponent’s blunder is a strategy that won’t work for Seachickens here. Patriots haven’t been in primetime much this year. Watch them flaunt their stuff. TAKING: NEW ENGLAND –7½

THE REST

Chiefs (6-2) at Panthers (3-5)

Chiefs aren’t sexiest of teams, but are proving to be quite proficient. Heck, at 6-2 they’d be leading five of the other seven divisions, but are currently a half game behind Oakland in the talented AFC West. When it all stacks up, taking points against the 3-5 Panthers is the prudent play here. Kansas City wins because they are careful with the ball. Currently on a four-game win streak, the Chiefs lead the league in turnover ratio at +13, with 20 takeaways and only seven giveaways. Carolina had those kind of numbers a year ago, but this year’s bunch has been much sloppier with just 11 takeaways compared to 17 giveaways, their -6 ratio ranking 26th in the league. The Panthers give up a lot more points and a ton more passing yards (305 vs. 256 yards per game) than today’s opponent. TAKING: CHIEFS +3

Broncos (6-3) at Saints (4-4)

We can understand why the Broncos were a one-point underdog in Oakland last week. Being a three-point dog here is more puzzling. Let’s be reminded that Denver is the reigning Super Bowl champion. The Saints did not see the post-season a year ago and they just pulled up to .500 last week with a win over the dreadful 49ers. Sure, the Saints can score points, but guess what? The Broncos are darn good at preventing them. Yes, Denver has offensive issues, but they can get remedied rather quickly here as they face New Orleans’ 30th-ranked defensive unit, a group that has allowed the most passing yards in the league and the 30th most points. Denver has been bitten by the injury bug quite regularly lately, but it still has enough leaders and skilled position players to do battle here. TAKING: BRONCOS +3

Rams (3-5) at Jets (3-6)

Apple vs. Android this is not. The Jets are a mess. They’ve spent the week waiving dead-weight guys, signing practice-squad players from other rosters and trying to figure out who their starting quarterback will be. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick is ready to go (knee issues), is he someone to fear with his horrendous eight touchdown to 13 interception line? Defensive linemen Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson were benched last week for disciplinary reasons, which translates to not giving a hoot about their team under current conditions. Just not a team that you’d want to invest in and especially when they are required to give away some points here. Granted, the Rams have many issues of their own, not the least of which is at quarterback where Case Keenum continues to falter but with good defensive players strewn throughout their lineup, Rams earn our slight lean here. TAKING: RAMS +2

Falcons (6-3) at Eagles (4-4)

Yes, Eaglemania has died down after Philadelphia’s 3-0 start has suddenly evened out to 4-4, good for last place in the competitive NFC East. However, let’s be fair. Philly has not lost at home this season in three starts here. The Eagles have been on the road for four of the past five weeks with all four of those travels against teams currently sporting a winning record. Three of those away games were against each of the teams in Philadelphia’s division. The only home game during that extensive span was a decisive win over the Vikings, snapping Minnesota’s five-game winning streak. Falcons are solid and are certainly dangerous but they give up a lot of yardage. Maybe Carson Wentz and the Eagles’ defence overachieved in the early going. But maybe a tough schedule and difficult situations has them undervalued here? We think the latter is more likely. TAKING: EAGLES +2

Vikings (5-3) at Redskins (4-3-1)

Minnesota’s offensive line has become a liability, minus both tackles and with starting guards rotating in and out of lineup all year. With such unsteadiness comes deficiency and the Vikings’ anaemic offence is the victim here. This offence currently ranks dead last in total yards while the ground game sits 31st in a league of 32. Rushing for 2.7 yards per carry is just not going to work in this league. It’s not like the Vikes can turn to their passing game to bail them out as that unit ranks in lower tier as well. Minnesota has not won since coming off its bye three weeks ago while averaging just 12 points per game in this three-game slide. The marketplace seems to underestimate the Redskins. They’ve only lost once in past five games and they are well-rested for this home contest after a two-week break. TAKING: REDSKINS –2½

Packers (4-4) at Titans (4-5)

The public still considers Green Bay among top teams while the Titans are equally perceived, but from the other end of the spectrum. That thinking suggests an inflated line here and one that spells danger. Truth be told, the Packers may not deserve this billing. They just lost at home to the Colts. The team is riddled with injuries and its offensive backfield is in shambles. Things are so bad back there that QB Aaron Rodgers has the team’s most rushing yards over the past two weeks. As good a passer that Rodgers is, it’s very difficult to be one-dimensional in this league. Defensively, the Pack are also beat up with several key secondary players on the limp. The Titans have improved offensively, scoring 26 or more in each of their past five games. At this price, they are more deserving of our support. TAKING: TITANS +3

Bears (2-6) at Buccaneers (3-5)

Not interested in a Tampa team that is not receiving a handful of points. The Bucs are basically required to win here to earn a cover and that’s something only a fool would rely on. With all of its quarterback, coaching and personnel changes, the Buccaneers have just three wins in past 20 tries on this field. Four games as hosts this season have produced zero wins and zero covers. While today’s visitor is only 2-6 overall, the Bears arrive here rested and confident after a tidy 20-10 triumph before their bye. That game saw QB Jay Cutler return to the field and the team perked up considerably. We know that Cutler can be erratic and moody, but he is certainly the preferred pivot at this price against sophomore QB Jameis Winston, who has regressed since an impressive rookie season. Winston and Tampa’s backfield are also nursing some pains. TAKING: BEARS –1

49ers (1-7) at Cardinals (3-4-1)

How bad are the 49ers, you ask? So bad that a sub .500 team is nearly a two-touchdown favourite over them. There is good reason for this. Losers of seven straight, the Niners defence is a worn-out group that can’t stop its opponents due to fatigue, injuries and subpar players. This group ranks 32nd against the run, allowing an implausible 193 yards per game on the ground. Cleveland, the next highest, allows almost 50 yards less per game. Arizona RB David Johnson could set some sort of rushing record on this day. Don’t expect Johnson or his mates to overlook this opponent. The Cardinals are desperate for wins if they are able to crawl back to playoff contention. The Cards defeated this visitor by 47-7 on this field a year ago. The 49ers have not covered a road game this season. This could get ugly TAKING: CARDINALS –13½

Cowboys (7-1) at Steelers (4-4)

The Cowboys have won and covered seven straight. Their only blemish was a one-point Week 1 loss to the Giants. When taking points this season, the ’Boys defeated both the Bengals and Packers by 14 points each. This isn’t a fluke. Dallas employs the league leading rusher in Ezekiel Elliott, averaging 111 yards per game, 20 yards better than next-best DeMarco Murray. Elliott’s skills combined with a strong offensive line have allowed rookie QB Dak Prescott to play smartly and the results are evident. Meanwhile, the Steelers can’t be counted on. Even QB Ben Roethlisberger’s return last week couldn’t stop the team’s losing streak, now up to three games. Also worth noting is that the NFC East has dominated the AFC North this season with a 7-0-1 mark straight up mark and 8-0 against the spread. Dallas too reliable this year to refuse point offered. TAKING: COWBOYS +2½

Bengals (3-4) at Giants (5-3)

LINE: NY GIANTS Even

Another AFC North team takes on a NFC East squad and, as noted above, that hasn’t worked out very well this year for the AFC side. Both teams tricky to figure out at times, but the Giants are hot right now (three straight wins) and this is a cheap price to pay against a Cincinnati team that has not covered a spread this year in five tries when traveling. In addition, Cincinnati’s wins have come against losing teams while all losses have occurred against teams that were above .500 when they met. For the Giants, QB Eli Manning has rekindled with WR Odell Beckham and the tandem have produced five touchdowns in the G-Men’s previous three games. While the Bengals’ defensive numbers suggest aptitude, the secondary has been leaky, causing coaching staff to tinker with lineup this week. Host gets minor nod. TAKING: GIANTS Even

Wunderdog

Houston @ Jacksonville
Pick: Over 42

Many thought this would be the season that the Jacksonville Jaguars would turn the corner, perhaps even contending for a playoff spot in the weak AFC South. Instead its playing out like so many of the recent Jaguars' seasons... another loser. The Jags have not had a winning record in eight seasons, and they appear to be headed for their ninth loser n a row after starting the season 2-6. Despite the bad news, this team has made some progress in the running game. They have been slightly above average in generating 4.3 yards per carry vs. a schedule of teams that average allowing 4.1. Jacksonville's defense has allowed 26.9 points per game this season while Houston's has allowed 28.3 points per game on the road. The weakness in the Houston defense has been against the run where they allow 4.4 yards per carry vs. teams that average just 4.0. The Jaguars churned out a season high 205 yards on the ground last week, and it did help the passing game as they threw for 244 yards as well. The problem for Jacksonville was not moving the ball, it was four turnovers that held them to just 14 points. And, that is where we find the value in this one. Houston has run for over 400 yards themselves over the last three games, and should find some room in this game. Jacksonville is 35-20 to the OVER in their last 55 games after outgaining their last opponent by 100 yards or more. In their last 16 games vs. losing teams, the Texans are 11-5 to the OVER.

DAVE COKIN

PACKERS AT TITANS
PLAY: TITANS +3

It’s always dicey asking the Tennessee Titans to accomplish something positive. There is some talent on this roster, but the Titans are prone to blunders and that has cost them at least a couple of potential wins.

Marcus Mariota continues to gain experience as the Tennessee quarterback, and I certainly think he’s got a chance to be a real weapon. But Mariota has yet to accept the fact he can’t be the hero on every play, and this has led to too many turnovers on plays where just eating the ball and accepting a few negative yards is the smart choice. Hopefully, the lessons get learned as there is no question in my mind the skill set is definitely there.

The Packers will be a popular side in this game, as they’re still a very public team. But Green Bay is struggling, and QB Aaron Rodgers called out his team for a lack of energy following last week’s ugly showing in a home loss to the Colts.

Perhaps the Packers bring it this Sunday at Tennessee. But the fact is this is a 4-4 team, and there’s nothing fluky about that middle of the road record. There are still sequences where Green Bay looks like a serious contender, but the consistency is clearly absent.

My take is that while Tennessee is no bargain, the Packers continue to be overrated by the market. I see this game as a tossup where the right price is right about pick ’em. That means I’m looking at some pretty decent value being able to grab a field goal at home. I’m expecting a tight game, and I’m willing to take the points with the Titans in game that could go either way.

Vegas Butcher

HOU @ JAX -2

Houston’s 32nd ranked pass-O will face off against Jacksonville’s 12th ranked pass-D, while Jacksonville’s 24th ranked pass-O will face off against Houston’s 7th ranked pass-D. Something’s got to give. Texans are 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, though they have faced off against NE, MIN, and DEN, some of the better teams in the league. Now they’ll take on the Jags, one of the worst teams. Jags are 0-3 SU and 0-2 ATS at home. Houston is coming off a BYE week, so had 2 weeks to prepare here. Jacksonville has now lost 3 straight, against beatable teams in OAK, TEN, and KC (no Smith/Ware). Last week though they gained 6.0 YPP to KC’s 4.1 YPP, registered 25 1st downs to KC’s 10, and gained almost 450 yards to KC’s 230. How the heck did they lose? Well, a 0-4 TO-differential had mostly to do with it. But it’s important to note that Jacksonville dominated this top-10 KC offense last week, while their own D did it’s job against the Chiefs. For Jacksonville, it doesn’t get more ‘beatable’ than Houston though, which just like the Jags, are one of the worst teams in the NFL. One major potential issue for Houston is the fact that AJ Bouye injured his ankle in Friday’s practice. He’s listed as questionable and “could” play this week, but frankly, getting injured this late in the week is bad news. Why am I mentioning Bouye, a CB most people have never heard of? Well, because he’s the #1 ranked corner by PFF, one of two with a grade above 90 (Talib, another injured corner, is the other one). Remember, Houston is without Kevin Johnson, the 7th ranked corner. This pass-D might not be as tough in this meeting as the ranking indicates. Of course the way to attack both defenses is via the run as JAC ranks 27th and HOU 28th defending it. There’s also significant RLM to consider in this game, as about 30% of the wagers is on the home team, yet the line moved from +1.5 to -2 now. I lean JAX in this one as I think the two teams mirror each other pretty well: crappy QB’s, crappy offenses, good pass-D’s, bad run-D. The fact that Houston could be down two of their top corners (elite corners at that), plus with Jags playing at home, gives Jacksonville enough of an edge with the line under a FG. Lean: JAX -2

KC @ CAR -3

The Chiefs struggled mightily last week as they were without Smith and Ware. Both are back this week. The Panthers barely squeezed out a win against the Rams, though they were NOT the better team. Panthers got outgained 339 to 244 yards, and 5.1 YPP to only 3.9 YPP. Rams had over 100 yards in penalty yardage and a costly turnover, which was pretty much the difference in the game. Bottom line is that the Panthers were NOT the better team last week, yet they’re once again a full FG favorite in this matchup. My model has CAR -1 in this one, providing solid value on the visitors. One key factor to consider is that the Panthers are once again without Ryan Kalil, their best offensive lineman. They’re also without Oher (though he stinks), making this O-line very thin coming into this matchup. The Chiefs have a top-10 pass-D, and if they can contain these Carolina receivers, Newton could get battered once again. I expect a very tight game here with the points being very valuable. Lean: KC +3

DEN @ NO -3

I have this one -1 NO, so once again the road team has plenty of value. The Saints are 4-1 in the last 5 games, but it’s not like they’ve dominated. They were lucky to come back against the Chargers (won by 1), held off the Panthers at home (won by 3), lost @ KC, and held on against the Seahawks, who simply ran out of time while they were driving late for a game winning TD (won by 5). Denver is a good team, and there’s no reason NOT to expect a close game. It hurts that the Broncos are without Talib and Wolfe, but this defense is still plenty talented. Of course their run-D is the weak point and the Saints have a pretty efficient running attack all of a sudden. Still, the Broncos are 7-2 ATS as an underdog the last few years while the Saints are 7-16 ATS as a favorite over the same time-span. Lean: DEN +3

LAR @ NYJ -1

This Rams D shut down Cam Newton last week, so what do you think they’ll do to Fitzpatrick, who is the WORST starter in the league. It’s not even close actually. Now dealing with a knee issue, and facing a healthy Rams D-line (remember, their key player missed some games a few weeks back), this one could be a disaster for the Jets. It won’t help that Clady and Mangold are out once again. Rams rank 7th in run-D and their D-line is #2 in stopping the run. I doubt New York will be able to lean on Forte in this one. While I also expect the Jets D to stop LA’s run-game, there is one factor that is in the Rams’ favor: offensive playmakers in the passing game. Jets have Brandon Marshall and Enunwa somewhat. The Rams though, have Austin, Britt, Quick, and Kendricks, who are all capable offensive weapons. I think you also have to give the edge to Keenum in this one, as he’s healthier, and (I can’t believe I’m about to write this!) a better QB in this matchup. Jet’s 30th ranked pass-D is also a factor in visitor’s favor. LA is playing on the East Coast, in the 1 PM EST time-slot, but I’d be willing to overlook that this week as they’re the ‘better’ team in the matchup. Lean: LAR +1

ATL @ PHI +1

The best QB in the league is Matt Ryan: #1 in DYAR; #2 in DVOA; #3 in QBR; #3 in PY/A @ 8.5 with 23:4 TD:INT ratio and 70% Completion %. Wentz isn’t close: #23 in DYAR; #24 in DVOA; #29 in QBR; #29 in PY/A @ 6.2 with 9:5 TD:INT ratio and 65% Completion %. Clearly there’s a huge advantage for ATL at the most important position. They’ve also had 10-days to rest/prepare for this one. Trufant is out for the Falcons, and though a factor, it’s not as big as McKelvin being downgraded to limited practices on Thur and Fri. I think McKelvin sits, but even if he plays, he’s not going to keep up with Julio Jones. Philly’s corners overall are horrible and I expect the best offense in the league to take full advantage. The question is can Wentz effectively lead the offense in this matchup? Atlanta is 21st defensively and does give up a ton of points. Philly is 1-4 SU/ATS on the road but this team is 3-0 SU/ATS at home. The Falcons are only 4-16 ATS as favorites in the last 20 matchups. As ‘appealing’ as it looks to back the Falcons, I think you have to side with the home dog in this one, especially the one looking to break a 2-game losing streak. Lean: PHI +1

MIN @ WAS -2.5

I have this one at WAS -1, so not much value here as long as the spread is below a FG. The luster has come off the Vikings after their 5-0 start, as this team is mired in a 3-game losing streak. Their O-Coordinator quit, the O-line is horrendous, and losing to Detroit at home in OT had to be demoralizing last week. Washington ranks 4th in ASR% and has a 13th ranked pass-D. This is a tough matchup for Minnesota’s offense. It should be equally tough for Washington’s too. Stud LT Trent Williams is out for 4 weeks (suspension), DeSean Jackson is going to sit, they’re starting an undrafted rookie at RB, and Vikings are getting Kendricks back. Minnesota is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year and 16-5 ATS in the last few years. Washington is 1-2 ATS as a favorite and 2-8 ATS in the last few years. Lean: MIN +2.5

GB @ TEN +3

Aaron Rodgers ranks 5th in QBR / 13th in DVOA, but he’s 40th in PY/A with 5.8. League average mark is 6.5 PY/A, so you can see how bad Rodgers has been in that area. He’s fairly efficient, but there’s virtually zero big play ability in this Packers offense. Luckily for them, they get to face off against the Titans’ 27th ranked pass-D. Plus they’re getting Cobb back and maybe even Starks. Tennessee is a hard team to back. They’re good enough to cover spreads but they continue to be so mistake prone that they’re failing to do so on a regular basis. Last week they had two TO’s returned for TD’s. The team is 3-6 ATS though they should be 5-4 ATS at least (Vikings and Chargers games). Green Bay off two straight losses is in a ‘must win’ spot of sorts, and the defensive advantage (#8 vs #26) has to give them an edge in this one. Lean: GB -3

CHI @ TB +2.5

The Bears are 2-6 ATS, 0-2 ATS as favorites this year, and 2-6 ATS as favorites over the last few years. Bucs are 0-4 ATS at home but 15-16 ATS as an underdog (3-4 ATS as an underdog this year). The ATS numbers indicate to be very careful with Chicago as listed ‘favorites’, especially on the road, though let’s not forget that this is a new regime in charge. Due to this, it’s easy to pass on them. The Bears have gotten very healthy over their BYE week, getting all their defensive starters back plus Sitton/Long for the O-line. They are a better team, no doubt. Tampa has 3 wins: vs ATL in week 1 (have no clue how they won that one), @ SF, and @ CAR when Cam Newton was out. Basically, this team is 0-5 SU/ATS against every other opponent that is ‘better’ than them, besides ATL in week 1. I think they’re a fade every time with a favorable spread (under a FG) and facing a superior team. Lean: CHI -2.5

MIA @ SD -4.5

The Chargers were lucky to cover last week as TEN allowed two turnovers to be returned for TD’s. The overall matchup was pretty even with SD @ 6.5 YPP and TEN @ 6.3. The Dolphins are off 3 straight wins and making their way all the way across the country for this one. They’ve beaten PIT (when Roethilisberger got hurt), BUF (without McCoy), and the NYJ, arguably the worst team in the league. All games were at home, and now Miami is going on the road where they are 0-3 this season. The Dolphins are also a run-oriented team now, with Ajayi playing like a monster. Their 2nd ranked rushing-O will take on a mediocre 19th ranked SD run-D. If Miami can control the clock with their run-game, they’ll be in this one. If San Diego gets out to a quick lead (and Miami’s secondary is pretty bad so that’s very doable), this one could be over. Tannehill just isn’t good enough to carry a team. My model has this one at -4.8, so this one is a pass for me. PASS

SF @ ARZ -14

I got this one at -11.5 ARZ so value’s on the road team. Let’s not forget that this is a divisional matchup, so the teams are fairly familiar with one another. Those types of games are often closer than most assume they’d be. Cardinals rank 17th overall in the NFL. They have an elite defense, but their offense is only 26th and their ST’s are 30th. This team shouldn’t be this big of a favorite against a divisional opponent. Lean: SF +14

DAL @ PIT -2.5

Is this the week when Dallas’ winning streak ends? Remember, they lost Claiborne and Church, their best two players in the secondary, last week. Though Cleveland couldn’t take advantage of it, Steelers surely could. Roethlisberger didn’t look fully healthy last week but he played much better in the 4th quarter against the Ravens, and I’d expect him to be fully healthy for this game. He’s also getting Ladarius Green for this one, so Steelers will have plenty of weapons to attack this over-achieving Dallas defense. Remember, Pittsburgh got their key players back healthy last week and I expect them to be even better at home in this matchup. In off-season this line was -6 PIT. It’s below a FG now. I think Steelers will bring this Dallas team down to Earth a bit this week. Lean: PIT -2.5

King Creole

Bears / Bucs Over 45.5

Our favorite 'OVER' situation from the database is in play this week as the Bears take to the road against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Back in issue #3 of this season's TOTALS TPSHEET, I promised to let you know when it came back up again. And here we go:

The host Bucs are off a Thursday game while the visiting Bears last played on a Monday.

21-1-1 O/U since 1992: All NFL games in which one team is off a THURSDAY game (BUCS) while the other is off a MONDAY game (BEARS) when the OU line is 55 < points. Of course, we HAVE to tack an asterisk (*) onto this one because that last Monday game for the Bears was actually 2 weeks ago (they're off their Bye Week). Despite that 'rest factor', this 95% OVER situation is still worthy of a 2** Play.

And besides, in the last TWO seasons... NFL conference teams playing with REST and off a SU underdog win (BEARS) have gone a PERFECT 7-0 O/U.

That big win two Mondays ago for Chicago was home against Minnesota, and it also went Under the Total.

8-0 O/U since 2011: All non-division teams off a SU division home DOG win that also went 'Under the Total' (BEARS) vs any opponent off a SUATS loss (BUCS).

The theme of this week's Best Bets could very well be '3 straight HOMIES'. In this one, the host Buccaneers are also in their 3rd straight home game (with the OVER cashing in the first 2 games).

9-1 O/U since 2003 / 5-0 O/U since 2009: All favorites of pts in EACH of their last 2 games (TBAY) vs any < .500 opponent who allowed 10 pts).