Rob Vinciletti
Falcons vs. Eagles
Play: Falcons -1
The Falcons are the bird of choice today as they are 7-0 ats off a win where Matt Ryan had 2+ touchdown passes and have covered the last 6 on the road. The Eagles are 0-10 ats at home off a loss where they forced at least 2 turnovers. The Falcons fit a system that plays on teams that won on Thursday vs a team off a straight up and ats Sunday loss like Philly. The Eagles are 0-4 ats vs a team that played on Thursday so we will Fly with the Falcons here today.
Brandon Lee
Broncos vs. Saints
Play: Broncos +3
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here on the Broncos after their loss to the Raiders last week. This is still a very good Denver team and I don't think they should be catching a field goal against the Saints. New Orleans was a dog in their last two home games against the Panthers and Seahawks. While they won both, that just shows you the value we are getting here with Denver. The Broncos offense should be able to help the defense in this one, as the Saints are atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. This is a big bounce back game for Denver and I expect them to deliver with a big road win here. Broncos are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 after a SU loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 350 or more total yards in their previous game.
Matt Josephs
Delaware vs. Bradley
Play: Under 137
Bradley and Delaware both struggled with their division two opponents and now play each other in Peoria. The Braves are traditionally a more methodical team although they did score 70 points in game one. Each of these teams are breaking in a lot of new players in their rotation and neither is particularly quick. The Blue Hens played a much lower scoring game winning only 64-56. They don't have a ton of options so they have to rely on their defense. Bradley has gone under in 15 of their last 25 home games. Delaware has gone under in 23 of their last 42 games as an underdog. This game was a 70-47 UD win last year with more talent. We'll see another lower scoring contest in this one.
Chip Chirimbes
49ers vs. Cardinals
Play: 49ers +14
OMG not again. I just can't believe that I am coming back with San Francisco after the way they fail 'ME' last week against the Saints. Colin Kaepernick doesn't stand for the National Anthem, vote in our elections or even know how to throw a forward pass with any touch at all. Okay, we know the Niners limitations but the over-rated Arizona squad is without a number of key personnel and just don't have what it takes to grab the brass ring. With this generous (by NFL standards) points the 49ers can stay within the spread margin.
Bill Biles
Eagles / Falcons Over 50
Both these teams have shown they can light up the scoreboard. The Falcons have one of the top offense and the Eagles play and score more when they are at home. Both these teams have weaknesses in the secondary and both Qb's will have big games. Take the over in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Falcons vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles +1½
Edges - Eagles: 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in this series when the Falcons own a .500 or greater record, including 5-0 SUATS when Atlanta is off a SUATS win. Falcons: 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS in this series following a 7-point or more win over Tampa Bay. With the Falcons just 2-6 ATS in games following a Thursday game, we recommend a 1* play on Philadelphia.
Jimmy Boyd
Texans vs. Jaguars
Play: Texans +2.5
I don’t know how you take the Jaguars right now. They outgained an injury depleted KC team on the road by more than 200 yards. Yet still found a way to lose and it could have been worse had the Chiefs not had to settle for 4 field goals.
Houston isn’t a team that I like a lot, but I feel the price is right here with them getting points against an inferior opponentl. I think some of the reason we are seeing a small line, is because Houston is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS on the road. However, that’s a misleading stat. The Texans 3 road games have come against the Patriots, Vikings and Broncos.
One thing Houston has been able to do is take care of business against bad teams. I don’t think there’s any arguing that Jacksonville is not good. Prior to the loss to the Chiefs, they lost 16-33 at home to the Raiders and 22-36 at the Titans.
Typically we expect a team like the Jaguars to show value after such a bad start. I don’t know that will be the case this time around. Jacksonville was getting all kinds of hype coming into season and I think the players believed in it. It’s a lot easier to finish strong when there’s no expectations. I see the struggles continuing.
This is also not a game the Texans can afford to lose if they want to win the division. In their next four they host the Raiders and Chargers and go to Green Bay and Indianapolis. I don’t think it would surprise anyone if they lost all 4 of those, making this one that much more important.
Another huge key here is that Houston is coming off a bye. That gives them an even bigger edge here. You also have to look at how they have dominated this series. The Texans have won each of the last 4 meetings with Jacksonville, with 3 of the 4 wins coming by double-digits.
ASA
Broncos vs. Saints
Play: Broncos +3
We expect a nice bounce back from Denver here after a very poor performance on Sunday Night last week. They were beaten 30-20 by Oakland and the defense, which is still ranked as the 2nd most efficient in the NFL, was run all over for 218 rushing yards. The 30 points was by far the most Denver has given up this year (23 was most prior to last week) and you can bet this experienced unit was embarrassed by their performance. They face a different type of offense this year. Even though they ran for a pile of yards last week vs a terrible San Fran defense, New Orleans isn’t a great running team. They normally rely heavily on the arm of Drew Brees which plays right into Denver’s strength as they are #1 in the NFL in passing YPG allowed, QB completion rate, and yards allowed per pass attempt. The Denver offense should play well against a Saint defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency. New Orleans is just 2-2 at home this year with their wins coming to the wire with margins of 3 & 5 points. The Broncos are 7-1 ATS the last 8 times as an underdog winning 6 of those games outright. We feel we’re getting the better team, as a 3-point dog, and motivated off a terrible performance on national TV.
Sean Murphy
Cowboys vs. Steelers
Play: Under 50
This total has simply been set too high based on the brand of football the Cowboys have played this season.
Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 4-1 in the Cowboys last five games overall.
On the flip side, the 'under' is 4-0 in the Steelers last four and 6-1 in their last seven overall.
This one will be pegged as a shootout in the making but I'm confident we'll see both defenses come to play. We actually won with the 'over' in the most recent meeting between these two teams back in 2012, a game that needed overtime to get to 51 total points. Keep in mind, the closing total on that day was 45.5.
Mike Anthony
Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3
Denver doesn't have the dynamic QB like the Saints - he doesn't pass as hard or confident like Brees, or even come close. Drew has been electric as always - their passing attack is a nightmare - and with the addition of Michael Thomas it is a long day in New Orleans. Denver cannot let the passing game of New Orleans get free in this game, or it's got the potential to be a bigger win than expected for the Saints - New Orleans has had some great balance with their offensive attack. On the road - Denver has been only mediocre, coming off an emotional loss, on the road vs a rejuvenated Saints team. Broncos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on field turf. New Orleans behind Drew Bres gets my call here.
Power Sports
Kansas City vs. Carolina
Pick: Carolina
I played against the Chiefs last week. While I was happy to walk away w/ a winning ticket on Jacksonville +7.5 (lost 19-14), really it should have been much more as the Jags outgained KC 449-231, but couldn't get out of their own way w/ four turnovers (forced none). KC won't get away w/ such a sloppy performance this week.
The Panthers have been favored in every game so far. In fact, they've been favored 22 straight times, the longest such streak in the league. But the early season returns were quite disappointing as they started 1-5 SU/ATS w/ the only win coming at sorry San Francisco's expense. But since the bye, things have gone a lot better w/ B2B wins over Arizona and Los Angeles. I took them in a dominating win over the Cards, but thankfully laid off last week as they weren't at their best (gained only 244 total yds) in a 13-10 win over the Rams where they pushed as three-point chalk.
Kansas City has actually been favored in every game, but one. That lone exception saw them get drubbed 43-14 by Pittsburgh. They come into this game on a four-game win streak, but leading the league in turnover differential (were 2nd in that dept LY) has been huge for them. Personally, I'm not that sold on the Chiefs. Carolina is the better team here, no matter, what the records say. They are a great value here considering a 7-1 SU/ATS record as a home favorite of three points or less. The Chiefs are still dealing w/ a number of key injuries on both sides of the ball.
DAVE COKIN
HORNETS AT CAVALIERS
PLAY: HORNETS +8
There’s not much debate that the Cavaliers are going to once again be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. They’re the best team in that sector by a pretty substantial margin and they know it.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t spots where taking a good number of points and trying to grab a cover makes plenty of sense. I think that’s the case today as Charlotte pays a visit to the reigning champs.
The Hornets are playing very good basketball. They’re 6-2 to start the season and the two losses were close. I’m quite confident that Charlotte will be looking at this as a very big game, so asking for max effort isn’t a stretch.
As for the Cavs, they’re 7-1, so there doesn’t appear to be a hangover, which sometimes can afflict championship teams, particularly early in the season. The champs are taking care of business for the most part.
I’ll make a case, however, that this Charlotte team might be legit. They were 48-34 last season and if the first 10% of the new campaign is an indicator, the Hornets could very well be a team that ends up owning a top four seed in the Eastern Conference come playoff time.
The Cavs won three of the four meetings between these teams last season, and they’ll probably take this one as well. But I think there’s a bit of value at the price with the underdog. I expect Charlotte to compete here, and I’ll go ahead and grab the eight with the Hornets to produce a spread win.
Andy Iskoe
Falcons +1
Philadelphia's 3-0 start is a distant memory as the Eagles have since lost 4 of 5 and sit in last place in the NFC East. Atlanta sits atop the NFC South at 6-3 following a pair of wins after two straight losses. They have won 4 of 5 road games, including 3 as underdogs and the lone loss was that controversial loss at Seattle. The fine play of QB Ryan continues whereas Philly rookie QB Wentz has struggled over the last month as the league has made adjustments. The Falcons have gone OVER in 8 of their 9 games and Philly has followed suit in 5 of 8. Atlanta has the better skill position players and a defense that has improved while facing offenses better than they face here.
Bruce Marshall
Rams / Jets Under 40
Hard to make a case for either of these two, but we'll try. The possible absence of Ryan Fitzpatrick (due for knee MRI at our deadline), on top of Geno Smith's ACL means it could be Bryce Petty at QB for Jets. Which, given the alternatives, might not be a bad idea. Meanwhile, Jeff Fisher could be tempted to give Roman Gabriel a call, with the Ram offense having stalled behind Case Keenum and with rookie Jared Goff still a very risky alternative. Even if L.A.'s 3-ypc RB Todd Gurley were finding room to run (which he hasn't), the stout Jet rush defense, allowing a mere 3.3 ypc, presents a stiff blockade. "Under" worth strong consideration.
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Kansas City Chiefs, plus the points in Carolina, as I love the road pup to potentially steal this one from the Panthers.
The Chiefs have won four straight regular-season games and 16 of their last 18, while they come in riding an NFL-best plus-13 in turnover battle and lead league in takeaways (20).
Yes, the Panthers have won two in a row after a 1-5 start, but today they're going to run into a brick wall, against a Chiefs team that still has designs on the AFC West, despite the Oakland Raiders surprising start.
Quarterback Alex Smith is expected to start after missing last week, and that will boost the offense. Take the road dog here.
4* CHIEFS