Bob Valentino
My free play for Sunday will be on the Atlanta Falcons, laying the number in Philadelphia against the Eagles. I don't think the Eagles are as good as advertised, one bit. I think they're one of the biggest farce in the league.
Atlanta has won the last three meetings, and in this one, you're going to see Matt Ryan unload, moving the league's No. 1 offense with relative ease.
Philly's defense is not bad, it's just that it won't be able to stop the best offense in the league. Stat-wise, the Falcons slipped from No. 1 to No. 2, but I think they indeed have the best offense in football.
Look for Ryan to turn toward Julio Jones, who leads the NFL with 970 yards receiving and has 51 catches, including five touchdowns. The Falcons' duo will be too much.
Take the road team here.
4* FALCONS
Brett Atkins
After a 5-0 start to the season, and talks of a trip to the Super Bowl, the Minnesota Vikings ship has taken on enough water to drown out those hopes. Minny is on an 0-3 slide both straight up and against the spread, and they have scored a grand total of 36 points in those 3 losses!
That is not going to cut it against the rested Washington Redskins who had the week off after their London tie against Cincinnati. The Redskins are on a 4-1-1 straight up run, and a 5-1 against the spread run in those 6 games. With Dallas looking like they are not going to falter anytime soon, Washington can ill-afford to slip up against a Minnesota team that by all accounts appears dead in the water.
Kirk Cousins had the offense humming before their break with 3 straight games with 400-plus yards to their stat sheet. They may not get that many against a good Minny defense, but there is only so long the Vikings defense can hold down the fort.
Based on current Minnesota form, and current Washington form, the play today is on the small home favorite.
4* WASHINGTON
Brad Wilton
Something has to give here, as Washington went to their bye with 6 of their 8 games this season having played Over the total. That makes 11 of their last 13 dating back to last season for the Redskins having landed Over the total!
On the other side of the ball though, Minnesota has stalled on offense with just 36 total points scored in their last 3 games - all 3 of those games having held Under the total. For the year, the Vikings are 6-2 Under, and now 18-6-1 Under the posted price since the beginning of last season!
As I said, something has to give today at FedEx Field.
Minnesota's defense has been showing cracks, but the Vikes have still not allowed more than 22 points in any game this season, so I will look for the Low to be the way to go on Sunday in D.C.
Minnesota-Washington Under the total.
2* MINNESOTA-WASHINGTON UNDER
Tony George
Dolphins vs. Chargers
Play: Over 48
I expect Miami to get their running game going which opens up Play Action Passing against a weak Charger defense today, as the Fish are off a bye week and despite their ATS record and losses this year, in recent weeks they have managed to beat the Steelers and the Bills in tight ones, and I expect them to compete well in this game.
On the other side of the ball, Rivers, Gordon, Gates and company should be able to put up 28+ today as Philip Rivers has had a great year and the Chargers seem to be in a dog fight down to the wire every week. Last week the Chargers put up 476 yards against a better than average Titans defense and their defense managed to score as well. With both RB's for these teams catching their stride, setting up the pass, I like this to go over the number today.
Scott Spreitzer
Lakers vs. Wolves
Play: Lakers +4½
The Lakers have covered the spread five of the last six meetings and 13 of the last 16 in Minnesota which, of course, includes some bad Lakers teams. However, the Lakers appear to be much improved this season under new coach Luke Walton having won five of their last six games. The Lakers blew out New Orleans 126-99 last night as they shot 55.3 percent overall and sank 16 of 30 three-point attempts. Jordan Clarkson led his team with 23 points D'Angelo Russell added 22 points while Julius Randle grabbed 11 rebounds against the Pelicans. The Timberwolves also played on Saturday night but lost 119-105 to the Clippers to lower their record to 2-6 both straight up and ATS. The Clippers were coming off a tough, two-point win in Oklahoma City the night before but still had no trouble with the Timberwolves.
Brandon Powell
Dolphins vs. Chargers
Play: Over 48½
Miami has hit the over in 5 of their last 7 games, and the Chargers have hit 7 of their last 9. Both these defenses have been struggling Miami has allowed at least 26 points in 6 of their last 7 and San Diego has allowed at least 22 in 6 of their last 7. I look for both teams to score into the 30s here. Both offenses have been accumulating points easily over the past 3 weeks.
Tony Karpinski
Cowboys vs. Steelers
Play: Over 49
Dak Prescott can dazzle people with his arm, as Prescott makes plays and extends plays with his legs, end of story, He is completing 67% of his passes which is very good and includes 4 rushing TDS - he can make secondary’s stutter.
You cant forget Ezekiel Elliott, who can seemingly do everything, his skill set is ridiculous. With 891 yards and 7 rushing TDs - Zeke has easily been the most dangerous RB to deal with in the NFL to date behind as very good offensive line.
Elliott should have another big day against the Steelers.
Expect Dez Bryant to go long all game long, especially with Bryant matched up vs the Steelers 24th ranked pass defense. And slot WR Cole Beasley, has the ability to cut quick on his routes, and is too quick for the DBs of Pittsburgh to handle one on one which should open the middle up for Jason Witten. He has been a recent target in the red zone, targeted 21 times with 2 TDs over the last 3 games - he is still tough to handle, and he makes big plays when needed,
I'm not betting against the explosive offense of the Cowboys. They have been way too good - in particular over the last 4 games, lighting it up for 30.5 – BUT the Steelers are coming off a terrible game and have actually dropped 3 in a row. Prior to BIG BEN getting hurt the Steelers were averaging 28 ppg.
Antonio Brown is always a very dangerous option for the Pittsburgh offense, and when he has the ball, he can make plays, as his 85 yards per game and 6 TDs can confirm that, and the Steelers are always tough at home. I think the BEST PLAY in this game is the OVER 50 points as this game should turn into a shootout.
Bryan Leonard
Chiefs vs. Panthers
Play: Panthers -3
Make no mistake, the Chiefs have been winning because of a plus 13 turnover margin. Is that sustainable? Not likely. Last year Kansas City ended the year +14, but the prior year it had a -3 deficit. KC was +18 in 2013, but -24 the prior season. So you can tell that turnovers for the most part are random, especially fumbles. Digging deeper we find that the Chiefs this year are 6-2 on the season, but are just 4-4 when looking at yards per play statistics. When KC fails to win the turnover battle it is 0-3 on the season.
The Panthers are just 3-5 on the year, and 4-4 in yards per play analysis. When looking at explosive plays Carolina has an advantage of three on the season vs the Chiefs. The big key is turnover margin in which KC has a whopping 19 advantage over Carolina. As we know that type of edge is not sustainable, which gives us a solid play here on the Panthers.
Scott Rickenbach
Falcons vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles +1
The Falcons have the top offense in the league but they now face one of the top defenses in the league Sunday. Also, the Eagles are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in home games this season. Atlanta is off of a win at Tampa Bay last week and they are 2-6 ATS when off of a win over a division foe. Philadelphia is off of a loss to the Giants last week and they are 5-2 ATS when off of a loss to a division rival. The Falcons beat Philly to open up their 2015 season so the Eagles are seeking revenge Sunday. That is significant because Atlanta entered the 2016 season with a mark of 1-9 ATS when facing a revenge-seeking opponent who also is off of a loss. With the Eagles off of a loss to the Giants last week and also seeking to avenge last year's season-opening loss to the Falcons, look for Philly to bring their "A game" on Sunday. The Falcons are on a 3-8 ATS run after facing the Buccaneers. That was a key divisional win for Atlanta last week whereas the Eagles dropped to 0-3 in divisional games with last week's tight loss and they are fired up about turning their season around before it's too late. 5 of the Eagles last 8 games are at home and they have their sights set on beginning the turnaround this week and remaining perfect in home games since Doug Pederson took over as head coach. Even in the preseason under Pederson the Eagles won both home games. Philadelphia also is a perfect 5-0 ATS when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 3 games or more.
Jack Jones
Falcons vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles -1
The Philadelphia Eagles are going to be highly motivated for a victory at home here Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. At 4-4, they need this win more than the 6-3 Falcons as they try and avoid falling further behind in the NFC East race.
The Eagles have lost four of their last five coming in, but all four of those losses came on the road. Plus, all four were decided by a touchdown or less. They blew a double-digit lead in a 23-29 (OT) loss at Dallas, and should have beaten the New York Giants in a 23-28 loss as they outgained the Giants by 141 yards last week.
But now the Eagles return home finally where they have been dominant all season. The Eagles are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home, outscoring teams by 20.3 points per game and outgaining them by 82.3 yards per game.
The Falcons have a very good offense, but they won't have nearly as much success against the Eagles today as they have been this season. The Eagles only give up 18.1 points per game on the season. To compare, the Falcons allow a whopping 28.8 points per game. It's clear that the home team has far and away the better defense in this matchup.
Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. good offensive teams that score 29 or more points per game in the second half of the season. The home team has won seven of the past nine meetings between these teams. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Philadelphia.
Dave Price
Arizona Cardinals -13.5
I know this is a big 13.5-point spread, but I don't foresee the Cardinals having any problem beating the woeful San Francisco 49ers by at least two touchdowns. The Cardinals are coming off their bye and in need of a win at 3-4-1, so they won't be overlooking the 49ers. There's no doubt that the Cardinals are still one of the elite teams in the NFL as they rank 2nd in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 77.4 yards per game. The 49ers have lost 7 straight games coming in by an average of 17.3 points per game. They have the worst defense in the NFL, giving up 32.5 points and 427.9 yards per game. The Cardinals are only giving up 11.2 points per game at home this season. The Cardinals beat the 49ers 33-21 on the road without Carson Palmer, and now with Palmer and off their bye they will roll again at home.
Chase Diamond
Falcons vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles Pk
This big game in the NFC have the 6-3 Falcons and the 4-4 Eagles. Eagles have dropped 2 straight but are 3-0 at home and the Falcons are primed for a letdown with the Falcons going on the Bye week next week and coming off a road division win. We have a few trends that back the Eagles this weekend. Home teams with a .500 or better record have a money making record over the past 37 years off back to back road losses including 32-8 ATS 80% when matched up against an team which won and covered the spread in its last game by 7 or more points and the Falcons won last week on the road 43-28. Only 26% of the public are backing the home Eagles yes the line is moving right I just don't see the Falcons winning this. In there history this team struggles on natural grass.
Frank Jordan
Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3
This is a great match up of great defense of Denver against a great offense of New Orleans. New Orleans is second in the league with 30 points per game while Denver is 8th in the league in points allowed per game at 18. New Orleans opened the season with three losses, but since have won four of five to even up at 4-4 and in the thick of things for the playoffs in the NFC. Denver started 4-0, but has since lost three of five to fall to second int he AFC West with a 6-3 mark. Denver's defense will keep them in most of the game, but will wear down in the four quarter from constantly being on the field which is when New Orleans will strike for the big play and go ahead for good winning 26-21.
SPORTS WAGERS
JACKSONVILLE -2½ over Houston
The Texans are coming off their bye and for an offense with no rhythm or consistency, an offensive improvement is not likely at all. The Texans are winless on the road. Their tenure at the top of the AFC South may be closing soon considering they have four away venues over the next five games. The offense continues to struggle both rushing and passing while the defense mostly steps up in home games. The Texans record has been propped up entirely by home wins over average or worse teams. That this group of dregs are in first place and has more wins than losses is a true testament to how weak and pathetic the AFC South is. Brock Osweiler’s confidence has to be ravaged with half of a season of poor play after being the pricey free agent addition in the offseason. Osweiler only totals nine touchdowns on the year with nine interceptions. Houston ranks 30th in passing offense. Worse yet are his four games with under 200 yards and the fact that he's played in three road games and has managed one touchdown from those games combined. He also never passed for more than 196 yards in an away game. Given the choice between Brock Osweiler and anyone else in the league that is playing or sitting on the bench as a backup, we would not choose Osweiler.
The Jaguars lost 19-14 in Kansas City but they were the better team throughout. If you had the Chiefs in your survivor pool, you dodged a massive bullet. The Jags outgained K.C. in total yardage 449 to 231 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That's why it's so hard to back a team like Jacksonville. Even when they are the better team, Blake Bortles is a turnover factory and the team keeps finding ways to lose. The Jags have a disappointing 2-6 record but one has to trust they are on the verge. Teams’ like Jacksonville, with talent and potential, often play their best when it matters least. The Jags aren’t out of it yet but with two wins in eight tries, their expectations have fallen dramatically. Jacksonville’s defense has been a highlight this season, as they are a top 10 unit heading into Week 10. That figures to bode well against Osweiler.
Here’s what we know for sure; The Jags have the superior QB and it’s not close. The Texans are worse than Jacksonville but have a better record based on “in-game variances”. Houston has not won a road game yet. Lastly, Houston swept the Jaguars last year and a team as bad as they are should never beat its equal or better three times in a row. Just hold onto the ball and this should not be a difficult game for the host, who sit just three games back of these visiting dregs and play them twice more. Whenever the Texans are on the road, they should be offered more points than this, which is our cue to move in hard.
Denver +127 over NEW ORLEANS
The Broncos fell 30-20 on Sunday Night Football to the Raiders. These high profile prime time games almost always receive the biggest overreactions because of the attention they receive and because of the millions that watched. What they saw was that Denver dug a deep hole early and could not recover. It was an emotional night for the Raiders, as Oakland hosted their first Sunday night game in over a decade. Despite the loss, the Broncos are still 6-3. They may not have the same pedigree without Peyton Manning at quarterback but Trevor Siemian has filled in admirably. He’s not flashy but does have 10 touchdowns to just five interceptions. He’s also put up over 275 yards passing the last two games. Siemian is trending in the right direction and he could have his biggest game of the year against a Saints team that has a hard time stopping anything.
The Saints have won four of their last five games after crushing the 49ers, 41-23. They are now 4-4 after a 0-3 start. The Saints offense is putting up big points but their defense has played poorly by allowing 20 points or more in their last six games. The Saints can’t stop the pass. They’re giving up a league worst 300 yards per game through the air. It doesn’t get much better on the ground either where the opposition is racking up 108.5 yards per game. More than all of that however, is that New Orleans’ stock is up after covering five straight games but there is nothing but holes in their game. Three of its four wins could have gone either way. Its only dominating victory was over the ‘Niners, a team that is a total mess. The Saints have put up big offensive numbers against some of the worst defenses in the league (49ers, Falcons, Raiders, Chargers) so their offensive rankings and numbers are skewed The old adage says a “good defense beats a good offense”. Those old adages have been around for a very long time because they are true and we’ll happily put it to the test here. Broncs outright is the call.
TENNESSEE +136 over Green Bay
The Packers found out what happens when you try to use a receiver at running back in their 31-26 home loss to the Colts. The Packers were flat out of the gate and the final score actually flatters them. We rarely discuss injuries because they are figured into the line but this is one of those rare exceptions that the injuries are being overlooked because it is a brand name versus a no-name. The Packers IR is loaded and the replacement players are a misfit collection of undrafted college free agents. Their highly touted run defense is a shell of what it was earlier in the season. The Packers defense has been exposed in recent weeks by giving up big points to the Lions, Cowboys, Falcons and Colts. Green Bay is now 4-4 after losing three of their last four games. They are banged up, they’re in poor form and they head out on a three game road trip.
The Titans lost a 43-35 shootout in San Diego last Sunday. Despite the loss, the Titans put up 413 yards of total offense including over 300 yards passing from Marcus Mariota. Turnovers sunk the Titans but there's a lot to like about them and they’re still very much under the radar. Tennessee has the third-ranked running game in the league and that's bad news for the banged up Packers D. When you can run in this league it makes a huge difference in opening up the passing game. A balanced offense is one no team wants to face and these Packers are completely ill-equipped right now. By contrast, the Packers non-existent running game should allow this Tennesse defensive unit to focus on shutting down Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have been favored on the road one other time this season and that was in Week 1 in Jacksonville where they barely covered 3½ points. Green Bay was healthy then. In its current form, Green Bay cannot be favored on the road against an opponent on the rise like this one. The Titans offense is in great form, as the points have been up sharply for the last five games and in a game that actually favors the Titans in so many ways, we must play the value and take them to win outright.
NEW ENGLAND -7½ over Seattle
We’re going to wait until Sunday to pull the trigger on this one because we anticipate the number dropping by then. After all, it’s not often that a team like Seattle is being offered points like this and the market is likely going to eat those points up. Not us, as we’ll gladly swallow them and here’s why: The Seahawks defense has allowed over 24 points in three of the last four games and the offense has become completely devoid of a rushing attack. The passing offense - when it works - is still little more than pitch-and-catch with Jimmy Graham and something that simple is not going to work against the best prepped team in the business. After a prime time game last week, the Seahawks have less time to prepare for a cross country trip for another prime time game. The Seahawks 5-2-1 record is a farce. The last time we saw them on the road in prime time was in a 6-6 tie against Arizona three weeks ago when they should’ve lost by 28. In the great words of Dennis Green, “The Patriots will not let them off the hook”.
Before we get into the Patriots, let us take you back to last week’s prime time game against Buffalo. The NFL is losing customers (viewers) because the product is getting worse every year. Words like rigged, biased, a hoax and fixed are being thrown around more than ever. Fans and bettors are getting fed up with this product. This year’s ratings are way down from previous years, especially in prime time games. Well, once again, the Seahawks were the beneficiaries of some horrible officiating last week that had Twitter in an uproar and most of the venom was being thrown at the poor officiating in Seattle’s favor. The miscarriage of justice (an understatement) to the Bills was trending for at least an hour afterward all over Twitter and we can assure you that Roger Goddell and his office was watching and taking notice. The emphasis this week will be to tone it down big time. In other words, do not expect the Seahawks to get many calls their way. That’s just another obstacle this intruder will have to deal with.
Bill Belichick is in a league by himself. No other coach even comes close to having his troops’ ready the way he does week in and week out season after season after season. These other idiots have no clue what is happening on the field. They’re all too busy trying to figure out the next play or the next sequence as it happens with no regard given to situations, time on clock or anything else. Bill Belichick is like a chess grandmaster playing an advanced player because he’s 10 moves ahead of everyone else. Tom Brady is even more passionate. Just four weeks into the season for Brady and he already has thrown 12 touchdowns and topped 300 yards three times. In true Brady fashion, he's relying on different receivers for a big game every week and still has yet to turn the ball over. At home, he's been worth three touchdowns and over 300 yards every game. These are not even games anymore for the Patriots. These are glorified practices that they dominate and while they have the occasional hiccup from time to time, that hiccup is unlikely to occur against a team they hate as much as Seattle or a team they want to defeat more.
Larry Ness
Houston vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Jacksonville
The 5-3 Houston Texans welcomed the team's bye in Week 9 and return to the field on Sunday hoping to maintain their spot atop the AFC South with a road victory over the 2-6 Jacksonville Jaguars. The last-place Jaguars (also AFC South) are trying to avoid a fourth consecutive loss. The Jaguars have been plagued by turnovers during their three-game skid, committing eight while failing to record a single takeaway. Houston opened the season 2-0 but has split six games since but with no other AFC South team above .500, the team has a chance to possibly start pulling away with a few wins in a row.
Jacksonville would be a good place to start, as the Jags are 0-3 at home to open the 2016 season and overall, head coach Gus Bradley is only 14-42 (.250) in his fourth season at Jacksonville. How ‘hot’ has his ‘seat’ become? Houston hit the midway point of the season 1 1/2 games ahead of Indianapolis and Tennessee in the AFC South. QB Brock Osweiler has been inconsistent at best, completing 59.3 percent with nine TDs and nine INTs. His QB rating of 73.1 is hardly what Houston expected when it signed him to a big FA deal during the off-season. Houston ranks 30th in passing YPG (199.2), causing the team to rank 30th in total offense as well (313.2 YPG) and most troubling of all, just 30th in scoring at 17.1 PPG. The defense obviously misses J.J. Watt but it’s been respectable, allowing 20.9 PPG (11th) and fifth in total defense (316.2 YPG).
Blake Bortles leads the Jacksonville offense but his numbers are down from last year, when he threw 35 TD passes (18 INTs), averaged 276.8 YPG passing with an 88.2 QB rating. Halfway through the 2016 season he’s got 14 TD passes (10 INTs) and is averaging 256.3 YPG with an 80.2 QB rating. He’s rarely been helped by his running game, as before last Sunday’s outburst in Kansas City, the Jags entered that contest averaging 72.6 YPG on the ground. However, Jacksonville is coming off its best offensive output of the year thanks to a season-high 205 rushing yards against the Chiefs. Jacksonville outgained KC 449-231 in yards, as well as 25-10 in FDs but the Jags could only score 14 points and still lost!
Chris Ivory (107 yards) led the resurgent ground game and could continue to see a greater share of the work than T.J. Yeldon, while QB Blake Bortles racked up 54 rushing yards last week but remains inconsistent in the passing game. The Jaguars also turned in their best defensive effort of the year against Kansas City but they haven’t forced a turnover since Week 4 against Indianapolis. However, maybe Houston is the right opponent at the right time? The Texans have failed to record 300 total yards of offense in three of their last four games and four of their last six. Houston’s forced just six turnovers (three interceptions and three fumble recoveries), with only Jacksonville's five takeaways (three interceptions and two fumble recoveries) being fewer this season. The Texans are tied for 29th at minus-7 in the TO margin department and the Jaguars (2-6) are last at minus-12.
These teams are at opposite ends of the division standings but Houston head coach Bill O’Brien is quick to note the Jaguars have three losses by five points or fewer, including last week’s 19-14 defeat at Kansas City. “They’ve had some very, very close games,” O’Brien told reporters. “They’ve lost some close games like (last week). Very close. They’ve won a couple of close games. We know that this is going to be a very, very difficult challenge for us in Jacksonville.” I believe Houston fans should heed O'Brien's warning and stay away from the Texans in this one. Jacksonville gets a rare win.