Jim Feist
Bears AT Bucs
Pick: Over
Chicago is getting healthier and comes off a 20-10 win over Minnesota. QB Jay Cutler returned and threw for over 250 yards while the ground game was excellent against a strong Vikings D-line. They face a Tampa Bay defense that is one of the worst in the league, winless at home (0-4). The Bucs are 8-3 O/U in their last 11 games overall and 15-7 in the last 22 vs a team with a losing record. I like this game to see lots of scoring.
Harry Bondi
Green Bay / Tennessee Over 50
Free Pick record is 9-3 on our last 12 selections! Without much fanfare, the Titans have quietly become a dead-nuts “over” team, going over in seven out of nine games overall this year, including a streak of six straight in which the point total has gone over by an average of almost 13 points per game. During this streak the Titans offense has scored 30 points per game and we expect them to come close to that again here against a banged-up Packers defense that has allowed 30 or more points in three of the last four weeks. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers must be licking his chops to go up against a Tennessee defense that is allowing a 61.8% completion percentage and gave up 472 yards of total offense last week to San Diego.
David Banks
Seattle @ New England
Pick: Seattle +7.5
The last time these two teams got together they were playing Super Bowl XLIX. This time around, it may not be a game of the same magnitude but both teams would like to make a statement. The Patriots are 7-1 and have the best record in the AFC. They are 4-0 since the return of starting quarterback Tom Brady, who missed the first four games of the season while serving a suspension related to the Deflate-gate fiasco. Brady has been hot and the offense is averaging over 34 points a game since his return.
The Patriots have not lost to the Seahawks in the last three meetings between the two teams. Seattle playing in Foxborough is a huge advantage for the Patriots. CenturyLink Field in Seattle is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. While the Seahawks are more known for their defensive prowess, it is this year’s Patriots defense that has been surprising. New England’s defense is third in the NFL, behind just Seattle and Minnesota, in scoring defense giving up just 16.5 points per game.
The Seattle defense is again the team’s best unit. The offense has struggled. Early in the season, Seattle managed just 15 points in their first two games and later they were held to six in a tie with Arizona. The running game hasn’t been as good as it has in past years. Running back Thomas Rawls may not be ready to go on Sunday night. Christine Michael is the team’s leading rusher but he had just 40 yards in last week’s loss to the Saints.
Dr Bob
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
With all the negative things to say about Houston’s tall overpaid quarterback, the Texans still have a winning record (5-3) with the 5th ranked defense in the league. Even with a negative -7 turnover differential, the Texans are still holding opponents to 20.9 points per game. The Jaguars are the 23rd ranked offense from an adjusted yards per play standpoint and those numbers are inflated due to their league worst negative game control rating (-7.4), which causes them to throw more in garbage time. Yes, Blake Bortles has proven he can throw against prevent defenses, however it has been a different story when the game is tight. In addition, when two defenses that are playing this well meet, there is typically value on the Over, as it is 55% in a 10-year study. The advanced stats model shows value on the road team and Over, so Texans (-1.5) and OVER (42.5) HOU/JAX are Strong Opinions.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
Jeff Fisher’s Rams team is 3-5 and has some ground to make up to get to their hallmark 7-9 record. Incumbent Rookie of the Year, Todd Gurley, has not been able to lead the offense as they rank 27th in yards per rush due to Case Keenum’s inability to throw the ball down the field (16.2% deep pass rate). Los Angeles gets no breaks this week as they face the Jets #2 ranked rush D . On the other side of the ball, while Fitzy has never been a good quarterback, he is having an unusually down year, even by his low standards, with a 56% completion rate and 8-13 TD-INT ratio. Look for him to get the ball downfield quickly against a Rams defense that only has a 4.9% sack rate. And while both teams are negative -6 in interception differential, due to horrendous quarterback play, the Rams are actually +4 in fumble differential, leading to their stats to look better than they actually are. The advanced stats model shows value on the home team so Jets (-2) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to UNDER (40).
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins
The Vikings are a team of extremes, boasting the #2 ranked pass defense, holding opponents to a paltry 5.3 NYPP and the #4 ranked overall defense. Offensively they are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum, ranking dead last in yards per rush and averaging the second worst yards per play in the NFL. Sam ‘Sleeves’ Bradford can not be blamed for this offensive malfunction as he has performed above his below-average historical prior, with a 9-1 TD/INT ratio, 68% completion percentage, and 6.2 NYPP. All numbers which exceed his time in Philly/St. Louis. The problem is that he was never that good to begin with, and a patch-work offensive line that can’t run effectively (2.6 YPR) is doing him no favors. The Washington defense has improved this year, ranking an average 17th in passing defense (allowing 6.5 NYPP) after ranking 25th last year. Sleeves will see a different unit than he was used to in the NFC East, as the Washington defensive line is able to get after the quarterback with the 3rd best sack rate in the league at 7.8% . The advanced stats model sees fewer points than expected so UNDER (42.5) MIN/WAS is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Vikings (+3)
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Before the bye, the Bears came out of hibernation for the Monday Night matchup as a re-lit Smokin’ Jay Cutler led the Bears to an upset win and only 3 games back of Minnesota at (2-6). Tampa Bay is playing its third straight home game after a Thursday night thrashing at the hands of the high-flying Falcons. While the momentum and traditional statistics point to a Bears team that should be able to handle the struggling Bucs team, a closer inspection shows a different story. The Bucs actually rank 13th in offensive success rate when adjusted for defense and should have some success with Mighty Mouse Martin back at RB for the Bucs. Conversely, the Bucs defense has had the misfortune of playing high-powered offenses, including the Falcons twice, and they rank a below average 21st in success rate allowed, but better than their 7.4 NYPP would indicate. The advanced stats model sees value on the home team, so Buccaneers (-1) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to UNDER (46).
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Last time these NFC West teams battled in the Bay the Cardinals won 33-21, despite averaging only 4.0 net yards per pass. The Bruce Arians led team now is coming off a bye eager to face a defense that is giving up a league-worst 32.5 points per game. The most explosive part of the Cardinals offense has been the ground game this year, where David Johnson has averaged 4.5 yards per carry with 8 touchdowns through 8 games. Lucky for him he gets to go against the 31st ranked rush defense in the league with the Niners giving up 4.8 YPR. The Chip Kelly tempo offense will provide plenty of opportunities for points for both teams, as the last four games have averaged 58 points per game in blowout Niner losses. The advanced stats model sees value on the Over, so OVER (48) SF/ARI is a Strong Opinion. Lean to Cardinals (-13.5).
Stephen Nover
Denver +3
I'm not buying the Saints being favored against the defending world champions whose defense remains elite.
Denver ranks No. 1 against the pass holding foes to 183.3 yards through the air. Overall, Denver has the fourth-ranked defense. Von Miller has 9 1/2 sacks. He's the most feared pass rusher in football with J.J. Watt out. Drew Brees is not going to be able to pick Denver's secondary apart.
By contrast, the Saints rank last in pass defense. Trevor Siemian isn't in Brees' class, not even close. However, the bar is set much lower for him facing such a terrible defense. The Saints are tied for last in sacks with just 11. Siemian has played better on the road, too, with eight touchdown throws and only one interception in four away matchups.
Marco D'Angelo
Seahawks at Patriots
Play: Under 49.5
At first glance if you look at what New England has been scoring then saw the Seattle/Buffalo shootout last Monday Night you would want to jump on the OVER here. Well that's exactly what the public is doing as this total is now sitting at 49.5 which is too high. The Patriots are coming off a bye week and how many times have we said that when teams go into the bye on a good note the bye can too often end up being a momentum stopper. Also if you look at who New England has played so far this is the best defense they have faced. Seattle's Kam Chancellor is probable for Sunday and this defense is so much better when he is on the field. Seattle knows they can't win in a shootout so they will try to shorten this game also helping us stay under what I feel is an inflated total. My numbers have this game totaling 43 or less points.
Dwayne Bryant
49ers at Cardinals
Play: Under 48
These two met in San Francisco on a Thursday night back in Week 5, with the Cardinals earning the 33-21 victory. The quarterback matchup in that first meeting was Blaine Gabbert versus Drew Stanton. This game will feature a QB matchup of Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer.
In that Week 5 meeting, the 49ers defense had absolutely no answer for Cardinals running back David Johnson, who torched the Niner D for 157 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The pitiful 49ers defense will make stopping Johnson a priority, but I doubt it will matter.
The betting public will see the 54 points scored in the first meeting (Gabbert/Stanton), consider the porous 49ers defense, and look to bet the Over with Palmer now back under center for Arizona. And let’s face it, the public doesn’t need much incentive to bet Overs. I think that’s a mistake here.
One aspect the public probably won’t consider is the stout Arizona defense. Take away the game against New England in the season opener, and Arizona has allowed just 8.25 points per game at home this season.
I expect Arizona to once again feature David Johnson. That keeps the clock moving. The 49ers offense may have looked good against the Saints last Sunday, but there’s a wide gap between the Saints defense and this Arizona stop unit.
I can see Arizona winning in a blowout, but I hate laying double digits in the NFL. A wide margin should lead to a clock-burning fourth quarter. These games usually end up being dog & Over or favorite & Under. Since I expect the chalk to roll here but don’t wish to lay the heavy lumber, I see the total as the better play.
Buster Sports
San Francisco at Arizona
Play: Arizona -13.5
The Arizona Cardinals come out of their bye week in serious trouble, and the playoffs look at little out of reach. Today they look to get a win streak going and get on a run to try and make the playoffs. Who better to get it started with than the SF 49ers. The 49ers have really looked awful since winning their first game of the year. In their last 4 games they have given up 33,45,34 and 41 points respectively. The Cardinals put up 33 last time in San Francisco and that was with Drew Stanton at QB. Actually both teams will have different QB's today with Colin Kaepernick replacing Blaine Gabbert for SF. Kaeparnick still isn't the same guy he was when he took the 49ers to the Super Bowl. The last time he played in Arizona it was a nightmare for him as the Cardinals beat the 49ers 47-7. We see a Cardinal team desperate to make a statement taking out their frustrations against the lowly 49ers. The line is 13 1/2 at the time of this writing. We normally would not lay these many points at anytime but the situation today has us very comfortable in doing so. We see another blowout in Arizona today.
The Prez
Green Bay at Tennessee
Play: Green Bay -2.5
The Packers are in a perfect spot to show improvement in their defensive performance this season. The NFC North contender is just 4-4 on the season and are playing their first, a critical contest and must-win, of a three-game road trip. After beginning the 2016 campaign with a 3-1 record the Pack have dropped three of the past four and have allowed their opponents to score 30-plus points in each event.
The Packers are off an ugly and unacceptable 31-26 home loss to Indianapolis last week. It has been a rough and tumble week for Green Bay as the team is beginning to point fingers at each other and themselves. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers told the media and his 'mates that they lacked focus and energy in the loss and demanded that the group step up moving forward.
Green Bay is shorthanded, offensively, and because of injuries to their receiving corps have lacked production. Rodgers is expected to see the return of tight end Jared Cook today but All-Pro wide out Jordy Nelson is still slowed by a knee injury.
Tennessee depends on their ground game highlighted by the production of tailback DeMarco Murray (AFC top rusher with 807 yards). Murray is feeling the effects of his workload, however, and was limited in practice this week. The Tennessee offense is without the services of back-up running back Derrick Henry to a calf injury. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is carrying much of the team's success on his back. The Titans defense is everything but opportunistic as the unit has not yet registered even one forced fumble this year.
Green Bay is desperate for the return of defensive stalwart Clay Matthews but he has been ruled out for today's game. The Titans have had their share of 15-minutes this season but Mariota is still growing as a player and is severely trumped today by Rodgers in a game both teams need to win. While Tennessee is under the direction of Dick LeBeau defensively, the unit lacks the playmakers to secure a home win today, against Green Bay.
There is zero home field advantage for the Titans today, a squad that is just 2-8 ATS on home turf, and it is more than reasonable to expect that state to turn into 2-9 after this afternoon's loss.
Tony Finn
Chicago at Tampa Bay
Play: Chicago -2
The Chicago Bears (-2, 45), have been injury riddled the first half of the season and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are simply a riddle. This Week #10 kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET today, Sunday, November 13, 2016, at Raymond James Stadium. The Bears did receive a boost with the return of quarterback Jay Cutler in Week #8 to secure a win two weeks ago and the team comes out of their annual bye as healthy as they have been the entirecampaign. The Bucs are led by the inconsistent play of sophomore quarterback Jameis Winston. The former Florida State signal-caller has become frustrated and defensive as his 3-5 Bucs are being critiqued at every position this year.
Winston has told anyone who would listen, "I'm not a loser," Winston told the Florida media this week.. "We're winners in this building. And I believe it's a choice. It's a mentality that we've got to have and we're building. We're heading on the right path. We just got to get over the hump, and I'm going to do what I need to do to help us get over there."
We will believe it when we see it Jameis, and your chance this week comes against a last place NFC North squad, that the oddsmakers believe are the better team in this Week #10 event. Cutler attempts to push his Bears troupe to their third win of the season today in sunny Florida and does so while facing one of the softest defensive units in the league, host Tampa Bay.
Bears
Cutler's thumb injury is nearly 100 percent according to reports and the return of defensive lineman and front seven anchor, Eddie Goldman (ankle), headline a large number of returning tarters on both defense and offense for Chicago. Additionally the offensive line is expected to have guards Kyle Long (triceps) and Josh Sitton (ankle) active today. Cutler has the services of veteran wide out Eddie Royal (toe) making the visitors the team to back today in this early Sunday affair.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is giving up an average of, and a ridiculous, 29 points per game this season. Yes, quarterback Winston did complete a Sunday contest without throwing an interception but his team still lost. The second-year quarterback didn't finish the Week #9 loss on the field after injuring his knee and while he was limited in practice this week the Tampa coaching staff insists he will dress and start today. The Bucs are still nursing a large number of injuries to key players, including their quarterback, as well as running back Doug Martin (hamstring) and leading receiver Mike Evans (concussion), who are both questionable for today's NFC event.
Outlook
The ability to have some capable reserves on the front line for Chicago is huge, especially against a Tampa defense that all but looks lost when taking the field each and every Sunday afternoon. With Long and Sitton back to active duty the Bears offense is more trustworthy. They are much more balanced between run and pass and assist young tailback Jordan Howard with yet another chance to register a 100-yard performance on the ground.
Tampa Bay has lost 17 of their last 20 home games and are a porous 0-4 SU and ATS at Raymond James in 2016. The Tampa locker-room is littered with key player personnel ailments while the Bears defense is back to full strength.
If Martin isn't active for the Bucs the offense will be using their fourth, fifth or sixth running back from their depth chart. All-Pro receiver Mike Evans took a shot to the head in the team's embarrassing loss to Atlanta a week ago and while he has passed the concuss protocol he isn't a certainty to be productive or make it through the entire game without being benched due to health concerns.
Cutler and the Bears offense have a big day against a NFL minor league secondary.
Oskeim Sports
Atlanta at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia +1
My math model actually favors Philadelphia by two points and the Eagles are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season where they are averaging 28.0 points and 356 total yards per game at 5.7 yards per play and 12.7 yards per point.
Two of those wins came against Pittsburgh and Minnesota against whom the Eagles scored a combined 55 points and won by a combined 42 points!
Atlanta arrives in town off back-to-back wins over Green Bay (33-32) and Tampa Bay (43-28), but the Falcons are a money-burning 2-11 ATS as favorites over the last three seasons.
Meanwhile, Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 18-30 ATS as a favorite, including 7-10 ATS on the road. The Falcons are also 3-9 ATS in their last twelve games following a win by two touchdowns or more and 1-4 ATS in their last five November affairs.
Let's also note that the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last 7 trips to Philadelphia. With both teams seemingly heading in opposite directions, and with the betting public overreacting to short-term results, now is a great time to buy low on the small home underdog.
Mike Rose
Houston at Jacksonville
Play: Jacksonville -2
The Houston Texans will attempt to take on step closer towards sweeping the Jacksonville Jaguars for a third straight season when the AFC South rivals collide on the gridiron in Week 10. The Texans are currently sitting pretty atop the division standings while the Jags bring up the rear and enter this tilt amidst a three game losing streak. Jacksonville has been one of the biggest disappointments and money burners for NFL bettors this season, but still has time to turn its season around.
It truly is a shame what has become of the Jaguars this season. The franchise went out and spent a boatload of money in the offseason to improve the defense, and though the numbers don’t reflect it, it’s been a much better overall unit. Ranking No. 25 in total defense has more to do with the offense setting the opposition up with great field position due to turnovers than it does with the unit routinely allowing opposing offenses to go up and down the field and score.
The “MO” on Houston has been to back it at home and fade it when away from the comforts of NRG Stadium. Though the Texans have won and covered each of their two games played off a bye on the road under O’Brien, I’ll be on the fade train this week with Jacksonville returning home off a frustrating loss to the Chiefs.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +101 over WINNIPEG
OT included. The Kings' stock is low after back-to-back losses in Ottawa and Montreal. As long as goaltender Jonathan Quick remains on the sidelines, the Kings will be undervalued. Not much has changed with the Kings in Quick's absence. They still play a tight checking game that is designed to shut other teams down. They are sixth in the league in high danger scoring chances against. On the offensive side, the Kings are ranked third in puck possession time but they just aren't getting the bounces. L.A.'s PDO (Shooting % + Save %) or “luck” factor is in the bottom third of the league. Peter Budaj has filled in admirably for Quick and carries a .912 save percentage into this one. Prior to losing to Montreal and Ottawa, Los Angeles defeated Pittsburgh, Toronto and Calgary while outscoring that trio 15-2.
This will be Winnipeg's third game in four nights after playing five of its last six on the road including the last two in Arizona and Colorado. When the Jets are favored, they simply cannot be trusted. Their last game at the MTS Centre was an 8-2 win over Dallas but so what. Blowouts happen from time to time but Winnipeg is up against it here. You see, their goaltending is still a major concern. They are missing several key guys up the middle and that’s a key area that the Kings can exploit. The Jets are a run 'n gun team that is exciting to watch and very entertaining. That approach will win games against other run ‘n gun squads like Dallas and Calgary but it usually does not work against upper echelon teams and the proof is in the pudding. Winnipeg is 0-5 against top-10 teams and 0-6 against top-16. That’s all the info we need to move in here.
Montreal +150 over CHICAGO
OT included. As soon as Al Montoya was announced as the Canadiens starter, this line shot up through the roof. In case anyone has forgotten, the last time we saw Montoya was when he gave up 10 goals to the Jackets. We now get a huge overreaction to that. By the way, prior to that one poor game, Montoya was 3-0-1 with a save percentage of .956. One bad game and the market reacts like Chicago is playing Calgary.
Here are some other numbers for you---150, that’s the number of high quality scoring chances that the Blackhawks have allowed and only two teams are worse, Philadelphia and Vancouver. While the Blackhawks are 10-5, they have played the league’s 29th ranked schedule and they’re 0-2 against top-10 competition and just 3-3 against top-16 teams. Chicago is on a great roll, as they have picked up points in 10 straight games but the puck is certainly bouncing their way and a team that gives up as many scoring chances as they do cannot sustain such a high winning percentage. The Blackhawks have some of the best talent in the game but they are top heavy and they have more weaknesses than years gone by. Regression is going to hit at some point.
Montreal is on a roll too but the market is buying into it all being because of Carey Price. While Price is a game changer for sure, he is not the one putting the puck in the net and in that regard, Montreal has scored 17 goals in its last four games, all victories. The Habs were near flawless last night at home against Detroit. They have one regulation loss all season long. They are also getting production from guys like Phillip Danault, Paul Byron and Alexander Radulov aside from the usual suspects. Yeah, Montoya is in net but if Price was going we’d likely be taking back 10 cents instead of this price and that is wrong. Of course Montreal can win here.
Boston +109 over COLORADO
OT included. The Bruins are taking back an inflated price here because they are playing their third game in four nights and tail end of back-to-backs after playing in Arizona last night. That used to be a major factor and it’s something we have always been aware of. However, it does not appear to be such a big deal anymore because these players are in such good shape and it just doesn’t seem to affect them like it used to. We see teams with grueling schedules look just as sharp playing their sixth game in nine nights as they did playing their first game in three days. Taking advantage of the markets propensity to fade these allegedly “tired” teams is something we are going to try and take advantage of when it's called for.
Colorado is looking worse each week, not better. Here’s a team that looked pretty damn inviting in the first couple of weeks and now they’re a team that looks lost. Colorado’s offense has created the least amount of high quality scoring chances in the league. Its best player, Matt Duchene, suffered a concussion during Friday’s game with Winnipeg and will not play here. In regulation time, the Avs have scored two goals or less in eight of its last nine games. The Avs have also taken 14 minor penalties in their last three games, including six against a banged up and exhausted Winnipeg team in its last game. Colorado won because a Winnipeg player scored on his own net in OT. That was the Avs third win in nine games with the other victories occurring by one goal over both Minnesota (1-0) and Arizona (3-2). Incidentally, Calvin Pickard was in net for both those victories but Semyon Varlamov gets this start. Colorado with Varlamov in net is instant fade material when favored.
The Bruins went into Arizona last night and dominated possession in the first two periods. The B’s took a 2-0 lead into the third and hung on for a 2-1 victory. Boston has now won two in a row and three of four. They have scored four goals or more in three of their last six. Playing the league’s toughest ranked schedule, Boston is now 9-6 and they were missing Tuukka Rask for a few games too. Yesterday we discussed the Bruins’ analytic numbers. This is a top team at both ends of the ice. Boston is dominating in so many areas, which includes its Corsi for numbers (ranked 4th), Corsi against numbers (ranked 9th) shots against (ranked 7th) and time spent in the offensive end. The Bruins may well be the league’s most underrated squad right now and will face one of their easier assignments of the season.
The Real Animal
Falcons / Eagles Over 49
I liked Atlanta earlier in the week but am coming off of them and switching to the ‘OVER’. The Falcons have done a great job in pass protection this year as the signing of center Alex Mack has had a huge impact on the offensive line. But defensively the Falcons could be exposed today with the injury to corner Desmond Trufant. The Philly defense has been rock solid at Lincoln Financial limiting Minnesota and Pittsburgh to a combined 13 points. But the Falcons are averaging 34 points per game on the road and Matt Ryan is having the best year of his career. The Eagles are 8-0 ‘OVER’ at home against the NFC South. Plus the Falcons are 6-1 ‘OVER’ following a Thursday night appearance. Philly 8-0 ‘OVER’ at home since 2005 off a loss as an underdog when they converted four or fewer third downs. The Falcons are 8-1 ‘OVER’ this season. The Eagles are 14-3 ‘OVER’ the last three years following one or more consecutive defeats. Philly has been vulnerable to the pass recently and has allowed 27 or more points in three of the last four. Something to watch: Darren Sproles is the type of back that will give the Falcons problems.
Bob Balfe
Bears/Bucs Over 45
I have tried to limit totals this year because the NFL is just a circus with penalties, but I think this is a soft total. Tampa is brutal on defense and the Bears are hurt at every level on their defense. The Bears are one of those teams that are going to shock people down the stretch. Jordan Howard is turning into a super star running back and don’t chalk Cutler up to being a bum just yet. The Bucs might get Doug Martin back today which will make them a little more balanced on offense. I think both teams should be able to run the football and hit their big plays also.