Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, November 19th, 2017

Alex Smart

Patriots vs. Raiders
Play: Patriots -6½

The Raiders go head to head with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots this Sunday in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City . The Pats after a slow start to their campaign have looked over powering of late and last week against the leagues No.1 defense (Denver) put 41 points on the board in a lopsided win. This week vs the 28 th overall ranked Raiders total defense, that allows 361.1 ypg, another romp is expected by me. The champs D, was also a question mark earlier on this season, but wow , have they ever come around, as is evident by allowing 14,17,7, 13 and 16 points in their L/5 overall allowing a combined average of just 13.4 ppg. I know the Raiders behind their stud QB Derek Carr have a reputation for being an explosive offensive team, but to this point in the season have not shown much consistency this year with their attack, averaging just 21.8 ppg, and I'm betting will find it hard to keep up with their behemoth opponents today.

Belichick is 28-9 ATS L/37 after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games with the average score clicking in at NE 28.8 opposition 18.8 and is 15-4 ATS L/19 after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games with the average score clicking in at NE 29.3 opposition 17.5. NEW ENGLAND is 13-0 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games with the average margin of victory coming by 15.5 ppg ( 2 TD plus)

OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS L/12 in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 .NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS L/6 after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS L/6 as a road favorite of 7 points or less.NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play.

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/G or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G or less forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 43-17 ATS over the L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Art Aronson

Lions vs. Bears
Play: Lions -3

The Lions went into their bye week sitting at 3-3 and came out of it with a disappointing effort in a 20-15 loss to a then red hot Pittsburgh Steelers team. But Detroit comes into this one back on top form, having won two straight, most recently a convincing 38-24 destruction of the Browns at home. The Bears have once again stalled though. They lost a tough 20-17 game at home to New Orleans before their bye week and then fell flat against the Aaron Rodger-less Packers last weekend. Note that Chicago is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 17 points or less in its previous contest, while Detroit is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 35 points or more in its previous outing.

Ray Monohan

Jacksonville vs. Cleveland
Play: Jacksonville -7.5

The Jags open at a generous number against the Browns here on Sunday. Jacksonville is making a legitimate case for themselves this season. They are one of the top, if not the top, defense in the NFL thus far. They are constantly putting pressure on in the backfield and are giving up only 14.9 points per game. Cleveland is at an all time low right now too. They continue to struggle, going just 2-7 ATS on the season. This team just isn't talented enough and has enough problems and distractions going on right now. Some trends to note. Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Cleveland is just a mess these days. It's too hard to trust them in any spot, making them a nice fade.

Mike Anthony

New England vs. Oakland
Play: New England -6.5

The Patriots completely dismantled the Broncos on Sunday Night Football and look like they might be back to their dominant ways. Tom Brady had a huge game throwing for three TDs and 266 yards and continues to be the best QB in the league by a considerable margin. The New England running game looked great with Lewis and Burkhead both putting up solid numbers on the ground. The Patriots defense had a solid game as they only gave up 16 points and their special teams also had a fantastic game. The Oakland Raiders have significantly underperformed this season and Jack Del Rio is scratching his head. Take the Patriots to get the win and cover as they are the better team with the hot QB.

Allen Eastman

New England (-6.5) over Oakland

This game is going to be played in Mexico, so Oakland won't have much of a home-field advantage. This is an away game for both teams. I trust New England more. The Patriots are used to playing in situations like this. But Bill Belichick always has his teams focused on doing their jobs and not on the environment. The Raiders have not been playing very good football, and they are just 2-5 in their last seven games. Oakland is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, and they have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this year. The Patriots have won five straight games, and they are 4-1 ATS in those. New England has fixed its defense, and they have held their last five opponents under 17 points. The Patriots are 5-0 ATS against teams with a losing record, and they are an outstanding 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall. I think that Tom Brady will outplay Derek Carr and the Patriots should keep rolling.

Strike Point Sports

Buffalo (+5) over San Diego

We have been against the Bills for the last two weekends, but this is where we jump right back on them. The Bills are better as an underdog (or versus a team that they can compete with) and these points are just too good to pass up. Over the past few weekends the expectations for the Bills have been high and they have failed to live up to said expectations. This week they get a Chargers team that is hit-or-miss and the Bills have fallen back to earth. We actually like the Bills to win this game outright. Buffalo has struggled with the run as of late, but the Chargers aren't running the ball particularly well. Look for turnovers to be the key to this game and for both teams to try and lose it instead of win it.

Spartan

Los Angeles at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota +2.5

As a Packers fan it is abhorrent to in any way pull for the Vikings. It is a completely unnatural act. Now, with that being said I am suggesting a small play on the Vikings as they play host to the new look Los Angeles Rams. Got to give the Rams and Sean McVay all the credit in the world for righting the ship in Los Angeles. They have exceeded most everyones expectations. I like the club and it's outlook, I truly do. I liked them at Dallas when most thought I was off my rocker. But it is largely about picking your spots and I like the Vikings here. The Vikings have quietly been on a fairly serious run having now won five games straight and have not lost since back on october 1st when they dropped a divisional battle with Detroit and at home no less. Well guess who the Vikings have on deck following this game. Yup, the Lions at Detroit for that annual thanksgiving game in the motor city. Vikings turn to show up for the turkey game. So after this home game sunday against the Rams here is what lies ahead for Mike Zimmers club. Road games at Detroit followed by two more road games at the Falcons and at the Panthers. Now that is a tough stretch fellas. Now while I stated I like the Rams and I do, let's be real here about something kind of important that stands out to me as I look at this game. Their last three games they have looked so impressive in have been against the Texans minus Watson under center, the Giants who are perhaps the leagues biggest dumpster fire at the moment, the Cardinals who could not even generate one single point and finally the Jaguars. YES, Jacksonville is improved but I am still not convinced they are all that yet. Frankly the Chargers could have easily won at Jacksonville by two touchdowns last sunday. The Chargers had both a easy dropped TD in the end zone as well as a easy pick six that hit the corner right between the numbers with a clear path in front of him. Point is, the Rams have without any question benefited from a nice rather soft stretch in the schedule. Playing at Minnesota against a hot Vikings team is a different deal and in my own view a tall order. Bottom line is as I look at this I feel the Rams are a fun story and will still have a fine season and make the post season. Do I think they win or cover this sunday in Minnesota. Gotta say no. I think the Vikings are the right side.

Randall The Handle

BEST BETS

Rams (7-2) at Vikings (7-2)

We believe one squad holds the best hand while the other could be bluffing. The Rams have taken the league by storm with previously maligned QB Jared Goff catapulting his offence to the top scoring unit in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. Los Angeles’ defence keeps improving under the astute guidance of defensive guru Wade Philips. The Rams have quietly allowed the third fewest points per game with no opponents reaching 18 points in L.A.’s past five games. Add the talents of RB Todd Gurley and the Rams are the real deal. The Vikings are on a roll of their own, winning four straight, but we still have some doubts. Five of Minny’s seven wins have come against losing teams. The other two wins were against the Saints on opening week and versus a Brett Hundley-led Green Bay squad. Against winners Pittsburgh and Detroit, the Purple Gang lost 26-9 and 14-7 respectively. QB Case Keenum scares no one, especially not the team he threw nine touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions for a year ago. TAKING: RAMS +2½

Lions (5-4) at Bears (3-6)

Most will be down on the Bears after failing to win and cover at home last week to undermanned Green Bay. Conversely, Detroit has won consecutive games including a victory two weeks ago against the same Packers squad. The market place demands that Detroit is favoured here, but that’s how value is created and we believe it belongs with the home team. The Leos can be exciting to watch, but they rank significantly lower than their hosts today in nearly every defensive category. Most notably is Detroit’s 22nd-place ranking in total yards allowed compared to Chicago’s ninth-place position. The Lions are also in a vulnerable spot as they must suit up again on Thursday for their annual Thanksgiving Day game when they’ll host a big showdown with first-place Minnesota. Detroit has managed just three covers in past 12 prior to their holiday game. Bears have already taken down Steelers and Panthers on this field. They can certainly handle these guys. TAKING: BEARS +3

Bengals (3-6) at Broncos (3-6)

Let’s do some comparison shopping here. Less than a month ago, the Broncos and Jaguars shared equal 3-3 records. Both teams have good defences, wretched quarterbacks and a player or two that can be an offensive threat. Skip ahead to today where Denver is 3-6 while Jacksonville is 6-3. How did this happen to two similar squads? Here’s how. The Jaguars faced the Colts (3-7) before home wins against the Bengals (3-6) and Chargers (3-6) respectively. Meantime, the Broncos were seven-point underdogs in three successive games, all defeats, when they played at Kansas City (6-3), at Philadelphia (8-1) and home to the Patriots (7-2). Our guess is that if you switched schedules these past three games, we’d be looking at a flip-flop in records between the Jags and Broncos. Enter the Bengals into our fray. As mentioned, they got spanked 23-7 at Jacksonville as a 5½-point underdog. Shouldn’t this pointspread be at least the same as that one? Denver is home against a lame Cincinnati team, spotting less than a field goal. We’ll gladly jump on that. TAKING: BRONCOS -2½

THE REST

Chiefs (6-3) at Giants (1-8)

Most teams look forward to Sundays. The Giants dread them. It’s a season lost for the G-Men and changes await, most likely with coach Ben McAdoo being the first to go. In the meantime, there are games to play. To make a convincing case for the Giants here would just sound foolish. So we turn to the line. Double-digit road favourites are a path to the poor house, no matter how big a discrepancy there might be in talent (see: Steelers/Colts last week), having covered just eight times in their past 24 attempts when the road team is spotting 10 or more. Let’s also not ignore that the Chiefs had lost three of four prior to their bye and still could be sluggish as they return to the field, especially against an uninspiring opponent. TAKING: GIANTS +10½

Buccaneers (3-6) at Dolphins (4-5)

At least Miami isn’t in prime time this week. While the Fish have been as lackluster as is humanly possible, this price still feels cheap when just needing a win to earn a cover. These are the hapless Bucs visiting and not only have they struggled all season long, they arrive here with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback. Fitzpatrick was able to lead the team to a 15-10 yawner over the Jets last week, but that one had Tampa as the home underdog to the subpar New York club. Prior to that victory, the Bucs had dropped five straight while failing to cover in six consecutive games, including a home contest to the Giants. Fitzpatrick is commonly a disaster waiting to happen and his side cannot be considered when priced in this range as a visitor. TAKING: DOLPHINS Even

Ravens (4-5) at Packers (5-4)

What if the Packers win here to get to 6-4 and do the same to Cleveland and Tampa in two of next three games before Aaron Rodgers possibly returns around Christmas with a playoff spot being achievable? Point being, Green Bay is not throwing in the towel just yet. They found a bit of a rhythm last week with a win at Chicago after the coaching staff loosened the leash on young QB Brett Hundley as he threw wisely while utilizing the clock well. Same approach should work against lame Ravens, a team void of offensive aptitude with its 32nd-ranked passing game. Baltimore had covered just three of past 11 when leaving home and while there is no Rodgers to contend with, the Ravens hardly warrant being a road fave at Lambeau. TAKING: PACKERS +2

Cardinals (4-5) at Texans (3-6)

Blaine Gabbert vs. Tom Savage. Lovely. Since we must make a selection, we can only go one way as no sane individual can take Savage as a favourite, no matter how small the pointspread. The inexperienced backup was responsible for four turnovers last week with two interceptions and two fumbles in his team’s 33-7 thumping at the Rams. Seems Gabbert will likely replace an injured Drew Stanton for Arizona with the disparity between those two being minimal, unlike Houston’s colossal step down from Deshaun Watson to Savage. The mental frame of the Texans has suffered since losing their dynamic young pivot and a rested Arizona team returning to the field after 10 days’ rest should have enough to take care of its demoralized host. TAKING: CARDINALS +1

Jaguars (6-3) at Browns (0-9)

There are few consistent teams in the NFL. One team that you can’t count on from week to week are the Browns. Winless in nine tries so far, this bumbling squad finds unique ways not only to lose, but also to fail at covering spreads. It is extremely difficult to suggest wagering legal tender on this squad. It would take a rare situation to spot this many road points with the Jaguars, a team that will not only be a road fave for just the second time in its past 45 away games, but is being asked to win by more than a touchdown to earn a cover. Risky, we know, but the Browns are that unreliable while the Jags have won three straight and can ill afford to take their foot off the gas pedal as they battle the Titans for the AFC South. TAKING: JAGUARS –7½

Redskins (4-5) at Saints (7-2)

Tough to fade a Saints team that is clicking on all cylinders like this group is, but with such success comes inflated lines. Public perception and tendencies are a key element for the guys making the lines and with New Orleans on a current seven-game win streak, few have the courage to oppose them especially against a visitor that has dropped three of four as the Redskins have. However, if we look at Washington’s recent sked, we find its past four games were against top NFC contenders Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle and Minnesota. Only once in that set were the ’Skins receiving this many points and that was when they were +8 at Seattle before covering in a tightly fought 17-14 loss. We also catch the Saints in a dangerous spot after glowing in a 47-10 blowout of Buffalo last week and with next two opponents being the Rams and Falcons. TAKING: REDSKINS +8

Bills (5-4) at Chargers (3-6)

Strange one here. When lines came out, the Chargers were listed as a 4-point favourite. Then it was announced that rookie QB Nathan Peterson would start for Buffalo in place of Tyrod Taylor. But the line never moved. While Taylor isn’t among the elite throwers in this league, he certainly has to be worth more than a rookie quarterback. Peterman looked comfortable in New Orleans last week when he replaced Taylor, but that was in a mop-up situation after the Bills fell miles behind the Saints. The Chargers have an unheralded pass defence, currently ranking sixth overall and we don’t see how a first time starter on a team that is undermanned offensively can compete here. Expect Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram to make Peterman’s debut a miserable one and for the Bolts to take care of business rather easily. TAKING: CHARGERS –4

Patriots (7-2) vs. Raiders (4-5) at Mexico City, Mexico

We think New England would have been a six-point fave in Oakland. So how are the Patriots only -7 at a neutral site? These are two teams headed in opposite directions with the Raiders dropping five of previous seven while the Pats have won seven of last eight. While New England’s defence struggled at the start of the season, perhaps attributed to some new faces acclimating to the champs’ methods, the Patriots have not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent during the past five games. Meanwhile, Oakland ranks in the low to mid 20s in nearly all defensive categories and with a 22nd-ranked offence (by yardage per game), it is difficult for the Raiders to compete with top clubs such as this one. Oakland has just one cover in previous seven away and hardly figure to change that around versus today’s strong opponent. TAKING: PATRIOTS –7

Eagles (8-1) at Cowboys (5-4)

The Eagles are soaring while the Cowboys are suddenly losing altitude with the latter immediately feeling the effects of star runner Ezekiel Elliott’s absence after losing 27-7 to Atlanta last week. Even so, we are not inclined to be giving these points away in such a pivotal game for host Dallas. This is a divisional battle on a big stage. The Cowboys could have been distracted last week as they glanced ahead to this one. We’re not going to knock the Eagles. They are good on both sides of the ball and they arrive here rested. We are simply going to respond to the pointspread which has the public spotting this price like they know the result. Dallas will fight to the end and there is enough room for them to cover through the back door should that situation arise. TAKING: COWBOYS +4

Falcons (5-4) at Seahawks (6-3)

Falcons could be regaining their mojo after a 27-7 thumping of the Cowboys last week. It may also help that Seattle QB Russell Wilson is being observed for concussion issues as the crafty QB has his team ranked second overall in the passing game at 267 per game. Additionally, Seattle suffered a huge injury on defence when CB Richard Sherman was lost for the season in his team’s win over Arizona last Thursday. Despite the home team’s issues, prefer that side to an Atlanta team that has just one road cover this season when slipping by the Lions 30-26 as a 3-point road favourite. As visitors, the Falcons were only able to muster up 24 points when visiting New England and Carolina respectively. This trip provides similar competition and until we see a continuous improvement by the Birds, we’ll fade them at this bargain price. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –3

Wunderdog

Baltimore @ Green Bay
Pick: Baltimore -1

Baltimore was expected to have one of the best defenses in the NFL coming into the season with their combination of talent and depth. They are sixth in the league in yards allowed, and eighth in points (19 points per game). The Ravens are 8-3-2 ATS away against a team with a winning home record. Baltimore has an above-average coach in John Harbaugh, who is 40-28 ATS when the line is +3 to -3, as well as 57-39 ATS when his teams are playing on natural grass. They face a Green Bay team without star QB Aaron Rodgers and backup QB Brett Hundley (2 TDs, 4 INTs) hasn't been very good. The Packers offensive line has allowed 30 sacks for #28 in the NFL. Green Bay revamped the secondary in the offseason but the defense isn't much improved at #18 in points allowed, #24 in yards, and #20 against the pass. And home teams with a winning percentage of 51-60% are 37-77 ATS when facing a losing team.

3G-Sports

Tampa Bay vs. Miami
Play: Tampa Bay Pk

Tampa Bay is not done yet, as long as their WR's attack the ball, and their Dline gets some kind of decent pressure that they should be able to get - they will win this "Battle of Florida" game. Their WRs have been playing pretty well - with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. I think this Dolphins’ squad may have already thrown in the towel on the season, based on the fact they’ve lost by an average of 22.3 PPG, and have allowed 184.0 Rush YPG during their current 3-game losing streak. Tampa is 3-1 when they run it for 90 or more yards, and they should be able to here with a healthy Doug Martin.

Frank Jordan

Jacksonville vs. Cleveland
Play: Jacksonville -7.5

Jacksonville has won three in a row to improve to 6-3 on the season and are in first place in the AFC South. Jacksonville is 3-1 on the road and has the best point differential in the AFC at +92. Jacksonville is 6-2 in conference and in their three game winning streak have outscored their opponents 70-24. Cleveland is the worst team in the league at 0-9 and the last winless team with San Francisco winning last week. Cleveland has scored the second fewest points and allowed the fifth most which explains their record. Jacksonville should be able to basically score at will and have much success through the air and on the ground as they dominate going away 34-17.

Mike Lundin

Jacksonville vs. Cleveland
Play: Jacksonville -7.5

The Cleveland Browns are still in search for their first win of the season following a 38-24 loss at Detroit last week. Watching them play I really doubt if they even want to win ... They're scoring just 15.9 points per game on the season (12.0 ppg at home), and this will an extremely tough matchup against Jacksonville's elite D.

The Jaguars are riding a three-game winning streak which has pushed them to the top of the AFC South, and they've allowed just a total of 24 points during that stretch. Their defense is allowing an NFL-best 14.9 points per game on the season and it is 2nd to only Carolina for yards allowed per game at 285.8. The Browns' QB DeShone Kizer played the best game of his pro career last week, and they still lost by 14 ...

The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and Browns are 3-12-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. This will no doubt be a one-sided affair and an easy play on the visitors.

DAVE COKIN

LIONS AT BEARS
PLAY: BEARS +3

Chicago weather is a plus for the home team in this game. Cold and windy, and that should favor the Bears. They’re the team that runs the football while the Lions are far more reliant on Matt Stafford throwing the pigskin.

The question is whether or not the Bears find a way to screw this up, which is clearly not out of the realm of possibility. But there’s too much anti-Lions stuff here to ignore. The conditions aren’t good for them, plus they’ve got a huge Thanksgiving battle with the Vikings on deck.

The recent history between these rivals have featured very close games. The Bears have been right there to get a win in all but a couple of games this season, and I think they have a good chance to win this one. I’ll take the field goal with Chicago.

Brandon Lee

Cardinals vs. Texans
Play: Cardinals +1.5

I think it’s worth the risk here to take the Cardinals on the road in a pick’em game against the Texans. I’m actually shocked that the public isn’t all over Arizona given how bad Houston has looked with Tom Savage as their starting quarterback. I know the Rams are playing great right now, but to only score 7 points and put up 283 yards of offense is hard to ignore. Keep in mind it wasn’t much better the week before at home against a bad Colts team, where they scored just 14 points and had 288 total yards. The defense was responsible for 7 of those points and the offense didn’t score a single point until late in the 4th quarter.

Let’s also not forget that Savage started their opener against Jacksonville at home and they lost that game 7-29. Note the only touchdown in that game came after Watson replaced Savage. So in basically 10 quarters of work this season, Savage has guided the Texans to 14 points. An even more telling stat is that he’s completed just 47.3% of his passes, which is downright awful by NFL standards (there’s 29 quarterbacks who are completing 60% or better).

I believe the fact that this game is being played at home and the Cardinals could be down to 3rd string QB Blaine Gabbert, is the only thing that is keeping this line where it is. Whether it’s Gabbert or backup Drew Stanton, both are substantially better than Savage.

I also like this matchup for Arizona. I’ve already noted how bad Savage is and his horrific accuracy throwing the ball. For Houston’s offense to have any hope of success they need to be able to run the ball. That’s not going to be an easy task here, as the Cardinals own the league’s 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 97.7 ypg. Bruce Arians is also a smart head coach and you can bet that he’s going to load the box here and force Savage to beat them. Adding to the coaching edge is the fact that Arizona will have had 3 extra days to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday.

One last thing to note about the Cardinals is that while they are just 4-5 on the season, all 5 of their losses have come against teams who currently own a winning record (Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams). Taking care of business against bad teams on the road has been one thing this team has done well, as Arizona is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games against a team with a losing home record. On the flip side of this, the Texans are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record.