John Martin
Ravens vs. Packers
Play: Packers +2
Brett Hundley is getting better with each start. He finished strong against the Lions, and that carried over into last week's 23-16 road win in Chicago as 5-point underdogs. Hundley was efficient, completing 18 of his 25 passes, and that helped the running game delivered 160 rushing yards against a stout Chicago defense. The Ravens have lost five of their last seven games overall and I don't think they should be favored on the road Sunday. I think they are getting too much credit for coming into this game off a bye. The Ravens have injury issues all over the field and can't be trusted. Their offense has been atrocious, averaging just 287 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. The Ravens are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Ravens are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 6 points or less. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Doug Upstone
Redskins vs. Saints
Play: Under 51½
Despite how well the the New Orleans defense is playing, Drew Brees and the offense have the scoreboard flashing. In this case when the total is 49.5 or higher and teams like the Saints are scoring 27 or more PPG, against a team allowing 23-27 PPG after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored, the OVER 22-4, 84.6%, the last decade.
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Texans
Play: Texans -2
The line began to move when it was announced Blaine Gabbert would start for the Cardinals. Tom Savage is no Deshaun Watson, but Gabbert has been a mess since entering the league six years ago. He hasn't thrown a pass this regular season and he brings with him a horrible TD-INT ratio with 17 TD passes and 20 INTs in his last 18 games since the 2013-14 season. Arizona was awful on the ground before A.P. arrived and they've been inconsistent with him on the field. With Gabbert at QB, Houston can focus on Peterson, forcing the former Missouri signal caller to beat them with his arm, something he hasn't proven he can do at the NFL level.
Jimmy Boyd
Jaguars vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8
I think there's some great value here with Cleveland catching more than a touchdown on their home field. With the 49ers win last week, the Browns are now the only winless team in the league at 0-9. These are the kind of teams the public wants nothing to do and will fade them regardless of the number. There's no question this line is inflated. Keep in mind the Jaguars were only a 4-point favorite at the Jets and they lost that game 20-23.
With an offense that is extremely one dimensional give Blake Bortles struggles throwing the ball, this is just too many points for Jacksonville to be laying. I think the Jags could find it really hard to move the ball, as this Browns defense has been very good at stopping the run, as they rank 4th in the NFL allowing just 86.4 ypg.
I also think this is mentally a tough spot for Jacksonville who have to be feeling good about themselves after 3 straight wins. Never easy giving a bad team like the Browns the respect they deserve and we can bank on Cleveland giving a max effort to get that first win (no one in the NFL wants to be associated with 0-16). I think it will be even harder for the Jags to get up with the conditions, as temps are expected to be right around freezing with a potential mix of snow and rain.
I think all of this adds up to an easy play here on the Browns, who only need to lose by a touchdown or less on their home field. I think they do better than that and potentially get that elusive win.
Jack Jones
Chiefs vs. Giants
Play: Chiefs -10
Andy Reid is 16-2 SU & 13-5 ATS in his last 18 games off a bye. It is well documented that he is the best coach in the NFL in getting his team to respond off a bye. And the Chiefs will already be a motivated squad anyway after losing three of their last four games coming into the bye.
The New York Giants have clearly been lacking motivation, and it appears they just want their season to be over. The Giants are 1-8 on the season with three straight double-digit losses. They lost 24-7 at home to Seattle, 51-17 at home to the Rams and 21-31 on the road to the 49ers.
The Giants' defense has given up a whopping 82 points in their last two games, and it's clear the defense has quit. I've seen tape of their last two games where I could see defenders purposely avoiding tackles, instead letting guys on the Rams and 49ers score. It's a sight to see, and Ben McAdoo has clearly lost control of this team.
I think many of the younger teams in the NFL like the 49ers and Browns will keep playing hard despite their poor record. I don't think the same can be said for the Giants, who are a veteran team and are just more concerned with collecting a paycheck. I just don't trust this team at all right now.
That's why I'm not afraid to lay double-digits on the road with the Chiefs here, which is something I rarely do. The mindset of these teams couldn't be more opposite coming into this game. I think you'll know you have a winner by halftime here with the Chiefs already up by double-digits and coasting from there.
Kansas City is 9-0 ATS in road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the past three seasons. The Chiefs are 10-2 ATS as road favorites over the last three seasons. Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up loss.
Dennis Macklin
Jaguars vs. Browns
Play: Jaguars -7½
"I'm laying more than a touchdown with the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road" is not the easiest thing to have come out of your mouth but this is a club that features a solid running game and is statistically the best defense in football. The Jags allow less than 15 ppg. and their point differential, +92, is best in the league. The hapless/winless Browns are last in the NFL in turnovers and not co-incidentally last (-97) in point differential. Barring a complete meltdown, the 6-3 Jags are likely going to the playoffs. Jax dodged a bullet last week vs. San Diego but if the Jags come to play and Blake Bortles has a clean sheet, it's hard to see how the Jags don't easily roll here. If for no other reason, you are going against a team that is 8-27-1 against the points in its L36. Jags 26-13.
Dave Price
Patriots vs. Raiders
Play: Raiders +7
The Oakland Raiders are coming off a bye week. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a bye. I like the fact that the Raiders played in Mexico City last year and beat the Texans. So the situation couldn't be better for the Raiders. I think the Patriots are getting a little too much love now after blowing out the Broncos, who have been getting rolled by everyone. The Patriots have won 5 in a row, but 3 of those wins came by one score. The Raiders need this game more as they sit at 4-5 and want to get back in the playoff hunt.
Marc Lawrence
Jaguars vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8½
Edges - Browns: 6-2-1 ATS all-time home off a loss when hosting AFC South opponents… Jaguars 1-7 ATS as road favorites against avenging foes… With Jacksonville a ridiculous 1-19 SU and 4-15-1 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, grab the points in this stunner. We recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Teddy Covers
Ravens vs. Packers
Play: Ravens -2
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We’ve seen the Packers offense for three games without Aaron Rodgers now, and Green Bay hasn’t been able to move the football effectively in any of them.
Yes, the Packers were able to beat lowly Chicago by a TD last week –playing with a rookie QB in a game where Bears head coach John Fox literally gave away a touchdown with an ill-fated challenge. But they gained only 5.3 yards per play for the afternoon, converted only one of their three red zone chances into touchdowns, and did not pass the ‘eye test’ any more than they did the previous week in a Monday Night Football home loss to the Lions.
To make matters worse for the Packers, the injury bug continues to bite Mike McCarthy’s squad. Their offensive line is riddled with key losses once again, with Brian Bulaga placed on IR and three starters listed as questionable for Sunday. They’ve got injuries all over the place on defense too, with Morgan Burnett, Nick Perry and Kevin King all questionable.
It doesn’t stop there either. Packers running backs Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, who have kept the pressure off Brett Hundley, are both banged up as well, with Jones out until December. And perhaps most importantly of all, Hundley hurt his hamstring last week. For a mobile QB who is at his best when moving out of the pocket and throwing on the run, that is most assuredly an impact injury, especially against the Ravens stout defensive front.
John Harbaugh’s teams have enjoyed great success off the bye. The Ravens are 7-2 SU after bye weeks in the Harbaugh era, including 2-1 on the road. That includes a 4-0 SU record against teams that enter the game with a winning record, like they’ll face here against the 5-4 Packers. Unlike Green Bay, Harbaugh’s squad is getting healthier; excellent news for a squad that was riddled with injuries right from the start of training camp. His quote: “I feel like we are more full strength than we have been all year.”
The Ravens season long statistics stink, in large part due to all the early injuries they suffered. Their 4.4 yards per play on offense, their -0.5 yards per play differential between offense and defense and Joe Flacco’s career worst 72.7 QB rating all look ugly for wiseguy bettors who peruse those stats closely. That ensures we’re NOT going to see any kind of significant market support for Baltimore this week, despite the fact that they are the superior and healthier squad, rested and ready off their bye. With Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead both expected back on the field this week, those season long stats are more misleading than accurate for the Baltimore offense moving forward.
Ben Burns
Bengals vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -2½
As bad as things have gone for the Broncos of late – five straight losses, all of them by double-digits – there is some hope. And that hope comes in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals, who arrive in Denver with their own set of issues. The Bengals are 1-4 on the road this season, and that one victory was against the Browns, who are more than halfway toward a winless season. So . . . books have made this a tight spread in what is basically a playoff elimination game. There’s not a lot of compete left in either team, but the Broncos are playing at home and giving less than 3 in what very well could be a field goal game. So swallow hard and lay the points, figuring that Denver is less-bad than Cincinnati is at this point in time.
Vic Duke
Patriots vs. Raiders
Play: Patriots -7
Sure, the Patriots have a few offensive linemen banged up but New England's next man up is usually well versed and game ready. I see no problem today; after all, Raiders rank last in the NFL in pass defense and last in sacks; consequently, Brady should continue his MVP season. And not sure the Raiders made great use of bye week for they're going to the high altitude of Mexico City. RB Lynch will surely be gassed after one quarter. On the other hand, Patriots acclimated to the high altitude by staying in mile high Colorado after blasting Denver last week. Raiders' offense still struggles under OC Downing and Patriots, which have held their last five opponents to 17 points or less, are poised to keep Oakland at bay. Patriots dangerous on grass fields at 8-0 ATS and no different here. NE the call.
Kyle Hunter
Chiefs vs. Giants
Play: Under 46
The weather forecast here looks really messy. Sustained winds of 25-30 mph during this game with gusts to 45 or 50 mph. That's the kind of weather that changes a game. Though both of these defenses have had some trouble this year, I expect them to play better here because of the circumstances.
Look for both offenses to be much more conservative than normal because of the extreme conditions. There should be a lot more running the ball. The predictability of the offenses should help the defenses keep big plays to a minimum.
Larry Ness
Patriots vs. Raiders
Play: Patriots -7
The 7-2 New England Patriots are in Mexico City to take on the 4-5 Raiders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Pats.
New England annihilated the Broncos 41-16 last weekend. Back to back road games as the favorite is never an easy task, even for the best of teams, but in this case I’m not expecting a letdown from the defending champs.
Sure the Raiders have had an extra week off afer beating the Dolphins 27-24, but I don’t think it’s going to matter.
Oakland has admittedly looked better all around after a terrible start. But Marshawn Lynch has clealry been a bust (just 323 yards in eight games.) The Raiders have had to deal with significant injuries to key players on both sides of the ball as well and QB Derek Carr’s numbers are also down from last season’s monster campaign, with a pedestrian 13/7 TD/INT ratio.
Patriots’ QB Tom Brady was 25 of 34 for 366 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s last week. On the year Brady owns a 19/2 TD/INT ratio.
New England owns the No. 1 passing offense in the league, which clearly doesn’t bode well for a Raiders team which just gave up 311 passing yards to the Dolphins.
I’ll point out as well that the Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS victory, while the Raiders are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against teams with winning records.
This will be a “home” game for the Raiders, but I think Brady will step up here and be just too much for Carr and company to keep up to. Consider laying the points on the Patriots in this one.
Jesse Schule
Chiefs vs. Giants
Play: Chiefs -9½
Remember when the Giants had one of the league's best defenses? Well they've looked like one of the worst the last two weeks, giving up a total of 82 points in losses to the Rams and San Francisco. There isn't a lot left for the Giants to play for, and the level of effort in recent games has been minimal. They host the Kansas City Chiefs, who are notoriously tough when coming off a bye week. The Chiefs should be primed for a one-sided victory here, running up the score and padding their stats. Kareem Hunt is second in the NFL in rushing yards, and Alex Smith has the league's highest quarterback rating. The Giants allowed San Francisco to gain a whopping 474 yards last week, and they now rank 31st in the league in total defense allowing over 400 yards per game. The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight when coming off an ATS loss.
TJ Pemberton
Patriots vs. Raiders
Play: Patriots -7
The New England Patriots are the team to back in this one. Tom Brady and company are rolling right now. Oakland has had time to prepare for this one but New England has looked excellent on the road this year.
The New England Patriots head into Week 11 of action riding a five game win streak. The Patriots are 7-2 on the season and 1st in the AFC East by two games ahead of Buffalo. New England will visit Oakland to take on the Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Patriots are 4-0 on the road this season. The New England Patriots average 301.6 passing yards per game which ranks 1st in the NFL. The Patriots beat up the Broncos last week 41-16 on the road. Look for QB Tom Brady to have another successful game as he has 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions this season.
The Oakland Raiders had some time to prepare for the Patriots as they had a bye last week. The Raiders are 4-5 on the season and 2nd in the AFC West. Oakland is just 2-3 over their last five games but beat the Dolphins 27-24 last week. The Raiders are 2-2 on their home field this season. The Raiders average 21.8 points a game which is 16th in the NFL. Oakland is led by QB David Carr who has 13 touchdowns on the season with 7 interceptions. Marshawn Lynch has not had a 100-yard game this season.