SPORTS WAGERS
DENVER -2½ over Cincinnati
We’ll go back to this Broncos well one last time here because their stock is way too low. It’s even lower after the Broncs were spanked by the Patriots in prime time last week 41-16 to run their losing streak to five games. First off, that game was not as bad as the score indicates. The Broncos forced the Patriots to a three and out to begin the game but they fumbled the punt and New England scored. The Broncs would move down field on the ensuing kickoff and kick a FG only to have New England return that ensuing kickoff for a TD and it was 14-3 for New England because of special teams play. It changed the entire landscape of that game. That said, The Broncos were moving the chains all night. The Broncos rushed for 118 yards and Brock Osweiler threw for 221 yards. Denver even held a time of possession edge. Denver is not even close to being as bad as their current 0-5 run suggests. This is still one of the best defenses in the NFL with an offense that finally got it going last week. Should it all come together this week, the Broncos might take five weeks of frustration out on this ripe to get beat visitor.
There comes a time when a team throws in the proverbial towel and to us, this looks like that time for the Bengals. We’ve always been a fan of players who are emotional and can get opposition fans to hate them – in wrestling, they call that “heel heat.” But, in the case of Vontaze Burfict, his immaturity and general stupidity has cost his team dearly. His cheap shot on Antonio Brown directly cost the Bengals a chance to win a playoff game – something that has evaded head coach Marvin Lewis in his tenure. He has had to give up nearly $1 million in fines in his career because of bad behavior and bad decisions. His latest was bumping a ref in the second quarter Sunday and getting ejected. As usual, he was defiant, but, in a 24-20 loss to the Titans, one has to wonder if not for his bonehead lack of thinking, could the Bengals have won the game and kept their bleak playoff hopes alive? That’s a topic of discussion for another time but truth be told, at 3-6, the Bengals are done and along with it, the coaches, the staff and several players will also likely be gone. Players can sense things and so can fans or bettors of this sport. Cincinnati needs changes and after last week’s heartbreaking loss that essentially ended their season, the Bengals motivation levels and support of each other comes into question here. Andy Dalton playing at this venue against this defense isn’t likely to be pretty either. It’s a rare day when we can get the Broncs at such a short price at home against a team as mentally dejected or playing as poorly as the Bengals are right now. Invest.
CLEVELAND +7½ over Jacksonville
There is no organization that has been more disappointing – short-term and long-term – than the Cleveland Browns. From wasted draft picks to underachieving free agent signings, the Browns push to win a game – any game – has been next to impossible. They can hold together for a while but always seem to find a way to fail. For most of the season, it has been the defense that has kept Cleveland in games only to have the offense ruin the party. On Sunday, the Browns offense put up 413 yards and, with two minutes left in the third quarter, led Detroit 24-17 and had held Matthew Stafford almost completely in check. In the final 16 minutes, they allowed Stafford to throw three touchdowns and lost 38-24, dropping to 0-9 and continuing to find new ways to lose. We won’t even get into Hue Jackson’s clock management mess up at the end of the first half because everyone knows about it. Let’s just say that everything the Brownies do is a joke. However, Cleveland has too many good players to go 0-16 and there is no chance we’re recommending spotting more than a converted TD with the Jags on the road.
For one thing, the low total of 37 is not conducive to spotting this many points. Secondly, the Jags haven’t been priced on the road in this range for years and with that comes expectations. For the first time in a very long time, Jacksonville is a significant road favorite that is expected to win. This is a team that is very used to going on the road with nothing to lose and expected to lose. There is a major change in their role and mindset here and it makes them vulnerable. We could get on board with the Jags if they had a strong QB able to deal with big expectations but Blake Bortles is not that guy. Bortles and the Jags are also coming off a miracle win against the Chargers in a game they had no business winning in. For whatever reason, the Chargers continue to find ways not to lose but to give away sure victories and Sunday was another one of those times. The Jags went from the agony of a sure defeat to the thrill of victory in a matter of moments so they also have to deal with keeping their jubilation in check and focusing right away on the next game. The Jags may win this game going away because Cleveland is always in danger of getting whacked but all the trouble boxes for the Jags need to be checked here. Their stock is too high – check -----they’re coming off an emotional win that should’ve never happened – check ----- they’re playing a weak team after a big win ---check and finally, the Jags will be forced to play in a cold climate this week with a QB that cannot be trusted. The points are sweet here in what figures to be a low scoring game.
DALLAS +4½ over Philadelphia
The Cowboys are in the news for all the wrong reasons week after week and this week has been no different. Owner Jerry Jones is in a pissing match with Commissioner Roger Goodell, while star runner Ezekiel Elliot finally decided to give up the fight and serve his suspension. On top of those negative vibes, the Cowboys got totally rocked in Atlanta last Sunday 27-7. Dallas was never in it, but we can forgive a bad game considering the crap storm that has surrounded them and it all coming to a head in Week 10. With a little more time to adjust without Zeke, the Cowboys should be better prepared mentally to take the field this week. There is also a chance Jerry's Boys were just looking ahead to this high profile, prime time showdown with the 9-1 Eagles.
Philly is the talk of the NFL with the league's best record. Second year quarterback Carson Wentz has already been penciled in as the MVP, and if you believe the pundits, the Eagles' fans should book their tickets to Minneapolis for the Super Bowl while flights out of Philly are still reasonably priced. The Eagles have been the lead story on ESPN, the NFL Network, FS1, you name it, the bandwagon is loaded and headed down to Big D. Sure, their record looks great on paper, but Philly has played the fifth weakest schedule this season according to Football Outsiders. The Eagles have played just two teams with a winning record in 2017 and are 1-1 with a loss at the Chiefs and a win in Carolina. Don’t get us wrong, the Eagles are good, but you are going to pay a premium to back them as long as they keep paying out like a broken slot machine.
This line opened at -3 with the Eagles as the road chalk. Since everyone and their dog is on Philly, this line is now up to -4½ and there is no sign of that number stopping there. Philly has played in two high profile prime time games in the last month (TNF at the Panthers and MNF vs the Redskins) and easily covered in both. Spotting a small price on the road with the league’s “best” team against a division rival that appears to be reeling looks like a gift but rarely is it that easy. We’ve seen some pick sellers bragging that they’ve locked in the Eagles at -3½ in the Super Contest and recommending their readers jump in before this line gets any higher. We are going to take a different approach. What happens Sunday afternoon will have an effect on this line. If the market gets buried, we expect Philly to get hammered, hard. Even if they feast, the Eagles will likely get most of the action Sunday night. We will wait and see where the number settles closer to kick off, but the Cowboys are definitely on our radar and can win this game outright. We’ll update this on Sunday evening before kickoff, as we expect to be getting as much as 6 or 6½ and know we’re going with the best of it.
CHICAGO +131 over Detroit
The Bears have dropped two straight, including last Sunday as a home favorite over the Rodgers-less Packers. While that loss stings, there were some positives, especially for rookie QB Mitch Trubisky, who threw for almost 300 yards, which is 133 more than he threw for in any other start this season. With the Lions allowing the eighth most passing yards, this is a solid matchup for Trubisky to keep it rolling. Defensively, the Bears have quietly put together a solid season and bring a top 10 DVOA defense to the table. Chicago has also been a tough out when getting points at home by covering against the Falcons and beating the Steelers and the Panthers outright this season.
The Lions 38-24 win over the Browns in Week 10 might have been the most misleading score on the board last Sunday. Detroit was outgained by the Brownies and it wasn’t until Cleveland’s starting QB DeShone Kizer left the game that the Lions were able to pull away. That the heralded Lions defense had its handful with the woeful Browns says a lot about a unit that has relied on turnovers to get it done all year long. The Lions are tied with four other teams for second in the NFL with 18 takeaways this season. Turnovers cannot be relied on from week to week, as they are a luck based statistic. Detroit dropped big dollars on quarterback Matthew Stafford in the offseason, and while we’ve pointed out how mediocre he’s been this season as the league’s highest paid player, it bears repeating because the perception is that he’s a top tier QB. On the surface, it might look that way, as Stafford leads a top-10 passing offense but the under the hood numbers tell a different story. Big Money Matty is 13th in QBR (which incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning) and 14th in QB DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average), it’s not that Stafford has been bad, it’s just that he isn’t very good, either.
The Lions have won two straight and they have feasted on two rookie quarterbacks (Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer). While the short price with another rookie pivot on deck may look appealing, it’s not. Detroit has a big week ahead with Thanksgiving Thursday serving up a showdown with the NFC North leading Vikings. The Lions are 5-4, making that nationally televised game with Minnesota a must win for Detroit in its quest for a division title. The Bears have made a habit of playing up to their completion this season and this is a great opportunity to foil the plans of a division foe. Chicago outright it is.
L.A. Rams +126 over MINNESOTA
With an ESPN graphic comparing Case Keenum’s 2017 to Tom Brady’s 2001 (after Brady took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe) going viral this week, we guess the word is finally out on how good Keenum has been so far this season. Keenum was quietly putting together a nice campaign, but with franchise quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater cleared and ready to go, the pressure will be on the journeyman QB to keep it up. Through his first four games this season, Keenum had an impressive 4-0 touchdown to pick ratio, but turnovers are totally luck based and a correction has come. In Keenum’s last three starts, he’s thrown three picks with just three touchdowns. His QB rating in his the last three starts is 78.7, 67.7 and 88.1 respectively and while he’s the third ranked quarterback in ESPN’s QBR rankings, Keenum is trending downwards. Mindset also plays a big factor. With Bradford out for the season, the pressure was off Keenum but with the return of Teddy Wobblyballs, the heat has been turned up considerably. Bridgewater is loved in the Vikings dressing room and there is no doubt he’s considered the future by the front office brass. That fact will also put pressure on the coaching staff to make the switch if Keenum stumbles. Look what happened to Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo this week. When the Bills were winning, everything was beautiful. One horrible game and the playoff hopeful Bills benched him and are now rolling with a rookie under center that nobody has ever heard of. We’ve been buying up Case Keenum and the Vikes for weeks but now is the right time to cash out.
The Rams are scoring in bunches, but with their lack of competition recently (Texans, Giants) those quality efforts aren’t getting the credit they deserve. The Rams are totally legit. As the league’s number one overall DVOA team (a relevant metric that measures defense adjusted value over average), L.A. should be destroying bottom feeders like the G-Men and they did. A further look shows that the Rams are getting it done in all three aspects of the game, as they sport the number 11 DVOA offense, number one defense, and the top special teams unit. L.A. quarterback Jared Goff was Keenum’s understudy last season and it’s almost incredible how much better the both of them have been after escaping former head coach Jeff Fisher’s clutches. Goff is fifth in QB DVOA and DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), while leading the league’s highest scoring offense at 32.9 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams are also tops in DVOA against the pass. That could be trouble for Keenum, as many of these Rams went against him every day in practice last season. This defense knows Keenum’s tendencies and his tells.
These two teams come into this game with identical 7-2 records so we can understand that laying a small price with the hometown Vikings might be appealing, but this contest comes at a strange time for the Vikes. Minny hasn’t played a home game since October 22nd after its bye was sandwiched between two road games. After Sunday, the Vikes have a very quick turnaround, as they will be featured on Thanksgiving Day Thursday in Detroit. Thanksgiving is the biggest regular season football day of the year and all eyes will be on those nationally televised games. These guys love being the center of attention and there is no doubt the Vikings coaching staff is already working on their game plan for the Lions while the Rams should be laser focused on this road game. While they are on the radar, we don’t think the market has caught up to how strong this Rams’ team really is. There is still room on the Rams bandwagon and it’ll once again very likely be on the way to the cashier’s window.
Buffalo +181 over L.A. CHARGERS
If the Bills are getting attention on the national stage, it’s usually not a good thing, and this week is no exception. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott surprised the football world by benching starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor in favor of rookie pivot Nathan Peterman. While the Bills were destroyed at home by the Saints last Sunday, they are still 5-4 and in possession of the second Wild Card. That Buffalo benched its starting QB while holding a playoff spot has been the main talking point for the pundits. Taylor’s benching might seem like an overreaction, but ol' “Car Parts” has been a total junker this season. Taylor is in the bottom half of the league in total quarterback DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and 21st in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) at just 160 yards, putting him behind Eli Manning and Blake Bortles, both of which would have been replaced too if their teams weren’t paying them so much money to start or had a better option. While we don't know much about what Peterman is capable of on the pro level, in practice. Bills' safety Micha Hyde calls him Nate "Favre" and it's not because he has a fondness for Crocs. Peterman is a gunslinger who teammates have called, "smart", and they love his fire in practice because he never backs down from a throw.
The Chargers had the Jaguars dead to rights last Sunday but gave it away after a Philip Rivers interception in overtime led to the game winning field goal. If you're wondering what L.A.’s mindset might be after a loss like that Rivers said it best, “We found another way, crazy”. Those five words pretty much sum up the Chargers at this point. This franchise has a stink on it that still lingers in San Diego. The market perception on the Chargers is that they are a tough luck team that loses close games. We’ve read more than once this week that L.A. is better than its 3-6 record shows, but we’re not buying it. The Chargers are sandwiched between the Texans and Titans in total team DVOA (18th) and they are 31st on special teams. They are what their record says they are.
The Chargers opened as -4½-point favorites after Buffalo made the QB swap and that line is now -5. More importantly, Buffalo’s blowout loss to the Saints last week has been pounded into this market’s head because New Orleans went off for 298 yards on the ground and six rushing TD’s. Combine that result with Buffalo’s loss to the Jets two weeks ago in prime time and throw in a rookie QB to boot and of course there is an overreaction. The Buffalo Bills have gone over the Falls in a barrel, which opens the door for us.
This market is so focused on fading the Bills that they have ignored that few teams in recent memory have taken as many gut punches as the Bolts and the latest may have been the worst (a game they had in the bag, not once but twice). Home field is no advantage either, as the Chargers prefer the road anyway. It's hard not to question what the Chargers have left in the tank at this point and a team coming off such an embarrassing loss is not what the doctor ordered. Keep the points.
MIAMI -102 over Tampa Bay
In their many opportunities this season, the Dolphins sure have made an impression on the market when given the chance to be featured in a showcase game. In four outings when they were featured in a stand-alone game, the Fish have been outscored 132-45 including last Monday night where they were blown out once again, 45-21 by the Panthers. Perception is everything and the media focus this week on the Dolphins is how they are in desperate need of a bye, which would have come this week if not for Hurricane Irma moving this game with the Buccaneers 10 weeks down the road. Adding to the Dolphins perceived woes is the fact they are on a three game losing streak after a surprising 4-2 start to the year. The reality is the Dolphins were never as good as their start out of the gate would indicate, and they aren’t as bad as this current stretch suggests. Quarterback Jay Cutler is a player the media and market love to hate, and while his perpetually pouty face is easy to dislike, he has been throwing a good ball since returning from injury. Cutler has thrown nine touchdowns and just three interceptions over his last four games but the biggest one of those came on MNF against Carolina, crushing the hopes of the many Dolphin backers in that one, as Miami was completely lifeless in the second half.
You know things aren’t going well in Tampa when the Jon Gruden rumors begin to pick up steam, as they have again this week. The Buccaneers are meddling through another disappointing season at 3-6 and they’ve been a strong fade covering just two games all year. Last week’s win over the Jets was the first ticket the Bucs have cashed since their opening game of the season in Week 2 against the Bears. Even with the win, Tampa was outgained by the Jets, and while backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting credit for leading this team to a win, he was his below average self, completing just half of his passes (17 for 34) for 187 yards with a TD and an interception. It doesn’t get any more pedestrian than that. The beleaguered Bucs defense was finally able to stop somebody, but while Josh McCown is having a nice season, he’s no Broadway Joe. Tampa's D is still god awful and the metrics don’t lie, as they the bring the 28th ranked DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) D into this one. Tampa is particularly weak against the pass (28th), although its run defense isn’t much better (20th).
The Fish opened as three point home favorite at most outfits but the market has taken a stand on this game as they pounced on the Bucs, and this game is now a pick ‘em. While the Bucs are coming off a win, beating the Jets does not impress. Tampa is winless on the road this year and has no business getting the attention it is from the market. Sure, the Fish were embarrassed on national television (again), but there is often an overreaction to these prime time games and the Dolphins have been totally exposed to everyone by playing on TNF, SNF and MNF respectively the last three weeks. The Dolphins have better overall talent and a far better defense and Jay Cutler is very likely going to find some more room this week against a Tampa defense that's the weakest Miami has faced all year. The Bucs evenly priced on the road against anyone is worth fading because they truly are as bad as they look.
Washington +7½ over NEW ORLEANS
The Washington Redskins seemingly can’t handle prosperity. Every time they’ve looked like they’ve had a shot at showing signs of life, they drop an egg and take two backward steps. Back in October, they were 3-2 and had divisional games coming up with Philadelphia and Dallas with a chance to start writing their own ticket for 2017. Instead, they lost both games, dropped to 3-4 with a 0-3 record within the division and put their playoff hopes on life support. After going into Seattle and getting an upset win last week, they had got back to .500 and had the opportunity to make some noise against Minnesota. They made noise all right, just all the wrong noise. Washington had a 17-14 lead late in the second quarter, but, in an eight-minute span, the Redskins offense was on the field for two plays and their 17-14 lead turned into a 35-17 deficit. In the final two minutes of the first and second halves, Washington has allowed 78 points. However, the ‘Skins have played the second toughest schedule in the league. They are as battle tested as any team in the game and they have the talent to hang around and upset anyone. The Redskins already have won big games on the road, at the Rams, at Seattle and also have a close loss at Kansas City but this choice is more about fading the stock of the Saints, which hasn’t been this high since their Super Bowl run back in 2010.
New Orleans was 6-2 before last week’s road game in Buffalo against a Bills’ team that has struggled to stop the run and they were playing outdoors in conditions more suited to running than passing. But even the most generous prognosticators could not have anticipated New Orleans reeling off 298 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in one of the most dominant performances in NFL history. At one point, New Orleans ran on 24 consecutive offensive plays, which is unheard of in this day and age. They were toying with the Bills and eventually won 47-10 to run their winning streak to seven games. So, just to recap –New Orleans has won seven in a row and is coming off a resounding 47-10 win in Buffalo. They have outscored its last four opponents by a sick combined score of 123-49.
We have no idea what is going to happen in this game and neither does anyone else. What we know for sure is that there isn’t a brighter star in the NHL universe than the Saints’ star right now. Every pregame show, every talk radio show and every publication opened up their week by talking about the Saints and we all know what that means. It means that their ship has sailed and it’s not the right time to get on board. The oddsmakers aren’t idiots. They know precisely how anxious this market is to get behind the Saints. 90% of teasers bet this week will have the Saints on their ticket. So, once again, we’re staying out of the prediction business and staying in the value business. To bet on the Saints this week, you will be paying extra to do so and it’s simply the wrong time. The Saints also have a huge game with the Rams on deck next week so you may see them play with a little too much complacency here after so many easy wins in a row and the media telling them how good they are.
The Rest of the Games
Baltimore -2 over GREEN BAY
There are a lot of very unappealing games this week and this is another one, as the Packers can’t be played with all their injuries and Baltimore is not worthy of being road chalk. Ask anyone who has Green Bay Packers fantasy players and they will tell you just how important Aaron Rodgers was to that offense when he was lost for the season with a broken collarbone. Guys like Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams went from top 10 receivers to guys you only play in a pinch. On Sunday, the Packers saw both running backs Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery go down to injury. Green Bay has a history of player injuries, but it took A-Rodgers going down to throw their other deficiencies into the spotlight. They got their first win in the post-Rodgers period Sunday against the hapless Bears, but it may be their last in a while because we’re quickly learning that Rodgers was a one-,am show over there.
The Ravens live and die by what their defense does since the offense remains one of the least productive in the NFL in both rushing and passing. Danny Woodhead becomes eligible to play in Week 11 but may not be ready. He's hardly the only missing piece. This offense just won't catch fire but if the Ravens can score three points, they may win and cover by a score of 3-0. You therefore might want to play this one under the number but we’ll pass. Hold a gun to our head and we’d take Baltimore. Recommendation: Baltimore -2 (No bets).
Arizona +1 over HOUSTON
All we can say is thank God that this game is on Sunday amidst many others so that we don’t have to watch a minute of it. The Texans had a lot of positives going for themselves when they made the quick decision to bail on QB Tom Savage and turn the starting job over to rookie Deshaun Watson. Watson gave the offense a spark and gave Texans fans lamenting the loss of J.J. Watt some hope that things would improve. But, when Watson went down in practice, so did any hope the Texans had of making the playoffs. Sunday against the Rams, the defense did its job, holding Los Angeles to three field goals in the first half, the last coming with 14 seconds left on the clock to give L.A. a 9-7 halftime lead. But, Savage had two turnovers and the Rams scored 21 unanswered points in the third quarter – one on a 94-yard touchdown pass and the others on touchdown drives of 36 and 12 yards to blow the game open. Houston’s defense can only keep them in games so long when the offense is so inept.
Few teams have been as painfully predictable as the Arizona Cardinals. They’ve won four games, lost five and have never put back to back wins or losses together. Their four wins have come against teams they should have beaten (Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and San Francisco twice) and their losses have come against teams the records say they should lose to (Detroit, Dallas, Philadelphia, the Rams and Seattle). The Texans have scored just two offensive touchdowns in the two weeks since Deshaun Watson was lost for the year but they may have the better offense in this game. However, we’re picking the Texans because they’re at homem they have the better defense and we have to pick someone. Fortunately, we don’t have to bet it. Recommendation: Houston (No bets).
Oakland +6½ over NEW ENGLAND
This one will take place in Mexico City, as Roger Goodell’s cash grab continues (Estadio Azteca Stadium seats 87,000), Just like we refuse to wager on games in England, we refuse to wager on games in Mexico also because too many teams are showing up flat in these out-of-routine games. Bill Belichick-coached teams can usually be counted on to be disciplined but that’s not enough to satisfy. Furthermore, the Pats are coming off a prime-time game in which the score looked a lot better for New England than the performance. The Pats beat Denver 41-16 but the they allowed enough yardage last week against a Denver offense led by Brock Osweiler for it to qualify as troubling. It was New England’s special teams that put the hammer down on the Broncs along with providing Tom Brady with short fields to work with. The Patriots deficiencies, and there are many, have mostly been masked because the AFC is so weak.
Derek Carr has come back to life with a three-game stretch of 300+ yard games. If Brock Osweiler and others can carve up this New England defense, we imagine that Carr could do the same. The Raiders, however, are not the same team this year as they were last year. The schedule is complicit in the decline to be sure but the change in offensive coordinators has to be factored in as well. We like the Raiders here for several reasons. One, New England is coming off a misleading prime time win. Secondly, the points are inflated and +6½ is an absolute underdog number. However, as we have discussed previously, these international games often go off script and produce a blowout and we don’t want to be holding a bad ticket if that should occur. Strong lean to Oakland under normal circumstances but under these, the Raiders are just a lean. Recommendation: Oakland +6½ (No bets).
Brandon Shively
Jacksonville vs. Cleveland
Pick: Jacksonville -7
It’s just time to continue to fade the Cleveland Browns. After looking kind of like a legit football team for a little bit last Sunday they still managed to find a way to not only lose, but to not cover the spread as well.
Cleveland is in the middle of just an embarrassing season and they find new ways to make themselves look bad every game. Last week it came at the hands of DeShone Kizer and a failed QB sneak from the 3 yard line with no timeouts prior to the half.
Jacksonville is playing like a playoff team and has tons of confidence right now. The Jags defense is too good for this Browns offense.
This is just a complete mismatch on Sunday.
Jim Feist
Lions AT Bears
Pick: Under
Detroit struggled for much of the first half last week against winless Cleveland before Mathew Stafford took over in the second half. Tough to back a road Lions team that plays some strange football at times. They allowed 413 yards to the Browns of all teams, with 201 on the ground. Now they have to face the Bears predominant ground and pound. The Bears are no pushover at Soldiers field, beating the Steelers and the Panthers, with narrow misses to the Vikings and Falcons. The bigger issue here is the cold, wintry and blustery Chicago weather on Sunday. The temp will be right at freezing, colder with the wind. This will hinder the Detroit offense and help the Chicago ground game.
Cal Sports
Bengals at Broncos
Play: Under 39
Cincinnati #2 in defensive yards/play allowed while Denver is #6. Bengals offense is averaging 228 YPG the last 4 weeks. Denver offense just slightly better averaging 295 YPG. Broncos D did not allow any team to top 280 yards the first 7 games and while they allowed 419 and 396 yards their last two it was against Philadelphia (#4 off) on the road and NE (#1 off) at home last week.
Buster Sports
Bills at Chargers
Play: Bills +6.5
The Buffalo Bills go on the road to play the Chargers in the worst home stadium for any club in the league. As it has been well documented, the Chargers home games are usually packed with visiting fans and today will be no different. The Bills will start rookie QB Nathan Peterman today and we believe HC Sean McDermott will have a basic game plan that keeps Peterman out of trouble and relying on their running game that has really faltered their last two games. Going up against the 31st rushing defense in the league will only help. QB Philip Rivers is expected to play as he has been dealing with concussion issues and will not be a 100%. This can only help a Bills defence that has not played their best football of late. The Chargers and the Bills have both lost their last two games and the Bills have looked terrible in doing so. The line in this matchup opened up as San Diego minus 3 1/2. Now with the QB change to Peterman and the public seeing how bad the Bills have played of late this line has jumped all the way up to 6 1/2 at the time of this writing. We believe this is now a good time to go with the underdog Bills.
Executive Sports
Arizona at Houston
Play: Arizona +2.5
Play Against Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - with a poor first half defense 14 or more points/ game, after scoring 14 points or less last game. (33-9, 79% over the last 10 seasons.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
Harry Bondi
Bengals / Denver Over 38.5
This game is still being priced as if the Broncos defense was one of the best in the NFL. The truth is that this unit is tired of carrying the pitiful offense with no semblance of a passing game and has allowed 121 points in the last three weeks, leading to three straight overs. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has gone “over” in three of its last four games. With a total this low we’re more than happy to play the over in a game that features two quarterbacks that do not take very good care of the football, meaning we expect multiple turnovers that will set up the offenses in good field position and/or lead to some defensive scores. Go over!
Dr Bob
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Lean – Baltimore (-2) over GREEN BAY
I think the market is overvaluing Brett Hundley’s performance in Chicago last week. The Bears were without their defensive play-caller Danny Trevathan, and Bryce Callahan, who surrenders just 0.87 yards per cover snap, 7th among slot cornerbacks. Prior to last week, Hundley averaged just 4.3 yards per pass play, which is likely a better indicator of his performance moving forward. The Ravens defense ranks 6th in yppp allowed and I expect them to shut down the Packers’ aerial attack on Sunday.
Green Bay has the league’s second-best rushing offense according to my numbers and it would seem they have a decent matchup against Baltimore’s 21st-ranked rush defense. However, nose tackle Brandon Williams returned after missing 4 games and the Ravens rush defense is improving as he gets back to full strength. Baltimore allowed just 2.9 yards per rush in their last two outings.
Joe Flacco is not having a good season but I believe Flacco is undervalued because he’s faced a gauntlet of opposing defenses. Every defense Baltimore has played thus far ranks above average in yards per play allowed, outside of Oakland and Miami. Flacco threw for 8.5 yppp against the Raiders and 6.7 yppp against Miami before leaving the game with a concussion. The Packers pass defense ranks 31st in my metrics and I expect Flacco to perform well in this matchup.
Teams with good coaching typically perform better than expectations with an extra week to prepare and John Harbaugh is 7-2 ATS following a bye week. My model sees some value on Baltimore and I like the match-up. I’ll lean with the Ravens.
Los Angeles Rams @ Minnesota Vikings
Lean – MINNESOTA (-2.5) over Los Angeles Rams
This will be a battle between the two top NFC teams both ranked top 5 in net yards per play. One of the Rams only weaknesses is their rush defense, which ranks 27th in my metrics, but Minnesota may struggle to exploit the matchup. The Vikings still haven’t recovered from losing Dalvin Cook as all other runners average just 3.6 yards per rush this season. Minnesota could also be without run blocking specialist right tackle Mike Remmers for the second straight game and they did not fare well on the ground without him last week gaining 3.3 ypr. Michael Brockers has the 4th-best run stop percentage in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus and I expect him to have a big day on the Rams defensive line if Remmers does not suit up.
The Vikings pass defense struggled last week without Everson Griffen bringing pressure off the edge, sacking Kirk Cousins only once in 46 dropbacks. Griffen is tied for 3rd in the league with 10 sacks and it looks like he will return this week against a Los Angeles offense averaging 6.3 yppl (2nd). The Rams run the ball a lot of set up Jared Goff’s play-action deep passes but Minnesota’s rush defense ranks 21st in my metrics, which is a match-up that favors the Vikings.
There’s not really any line value in this game and I see match-ups that favor each side. However, Minnesota applies to a 197-119-4 ATS situation and the Rams are due for a letdown after winning their last 3 games by an average of 31 points. Road teams that won their last two or more games by 24 points or more are just 13-33-1 ATS and I’ll lean with Minnesota at -2½ points or less.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns
Lean – CLEVELAND (+7.5) over Jacksonville
At first glance, this game would seem to provide a great matchup for Cleveland’s offense with the Browns rushing attack averaging 4.4 yards per rush (9th) facing a Jacksonville rush defense ranked 27th in my metrics. However, since acquiring Pro-Bowl defensive lineman Marcell Dareus, the Jaguars surrender just 2.5 ypr. That’s based on a pretty small sample size but it’s likely that the Jags will be better defending the run than they were in the first half of the season.
Cleveland’s 31st-ranked pass offense will likely be completely stifled by a Jacksonville defense allowing a league best 4.6 yards per pass play. Cornerbacks AJ Bouye and Jalen Ramsey both rank top-5 in passer rating when in coverage and the Browns’ quarterbacks aren’t good enough to beat tight coverage.
I expect the Jaguars to have trouble moving the football as well in this matchup. Jacksonville is the only team in the league with more rushing plays than passes and they will line up against a Browns defense allowing only 3.1 ypr, which is best in the NFL. The Jaguars may need to rely on Blake Bortles to make a few plays in this game, which is always a risky proposition. My ratings favor Jacksonville by only 6½ points in this game and the Browns apply to a very good 65-12 ATS contrary situation that is actually 1-0 ATS when it’s been on Cleveland this season (their 9-12 overtime loss as a 5½ point home dog to Minnesota a few weeks ago). I’ll lean with Cleveland at +7 or more.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lean – Under (43.5) – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-4.5) vs Buffalo
Philip Rivers is banged up and the Chargers 30th-ranked rush defense will face an offense with the 4th highest rushing rate but that’s where the positive news for Buffalo ends. In fact, the Bills ground game hasn’t been the same threat as years past gaining just 3.8 yards per attempt (24th) this season after ranking first a year ago.
Buffalo lost by 37 points at home last week to the Saints and the Bills have made a change at quarterback. Nathan Peterman will replace Tyrod Taylor under center, which should negatively affect the Bills offensive output, at least in the short term. Taylor is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league because fans do not value turnover prevention and rushing ability. In fact, my numbers have Taylor ranked 19th in points added this season mostly due to his 1.3% interception rate (3rd) and 237 rushing yards (4th among QBs).
Historically, quarterbacks do not perform well in their first start and the Bills offense to be worse with Peterman at the helm than if they started Taylor on Sunday. The line value favors the Chargers but I don’t trust them as a favorite, as LA is 5-14 ATS laying points recently and 0-4 straight up their last 4 when favored. Plus, Buffalo applies to an 82-39-3 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that plays on underdogs that lost by 14 points or more and allowed 42 points or more in their previous game. That angle will keep me off of the Chargers but our model leans towards the under.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
Lean – Under (38.5)
Cincinnati’s offensive line has been their Achilles heel all season, which is not a recipe for success in Denver. Two surface-level indicators of offensive line quality are sacks allowed rate and team yards per rush attempt, where the Bengals rank 26th and 31st respectively. Meanwhile, the Broncos defensive line ranks 17th sack rate and 3rd in yards per rush allowed. Denver’s pass rush has more talent than that 17th rank indicates finishing each of the past 2 seasons ranked in the top-5 and I expect Von Miller and Shane Ray to get after Andy Dalton.
Brock Osweiler threw for 6.7 yppp last week but I do not expect him to play at that level moving forward. The Patriots have one of the worst secondaries in the league and Osweiler did most of his damage after the game was already out of reach. The Bengals defense allows just 4.7 yppl (2nd) and I expect them to shut down Denver’s offense on Sunday. The math projects just 36 total points and I will lean with the Under at 38 or higher and I will also lean with Cincinnati on the basis of line value.
New England Patriots vs Oakland Raiders
Tom Brady has an excellent matchup this week as he leads the 3rd-ranked passing offense against a Raiders pass defense ranked last in my ratings. Furthermore, the Patriots most talented pass catcher, Rob Gronkowski, will face an Oakland defense allowing 8 yards per target to opposing tight ends, 6th-worst in the league. I expect New England to air-it-out in this game.
Derek Carr is 10th in the NFL with 6.8 yppp and I expect him to play well against the Patriot’s 28th ranked pass defense. New England hasn’t held an opposing quarterback under 6 yppp all season mostly due to lack of pressure as they have recorded just 2 sacks in the last 3 weeks. The Raiders have one of the league’s best offensive lines and I don’t expect Carr to be under much pressure on Sunday.
This will game will be played in Mexico City and both teams have reason to believe this gives them an advantage. The Raiders have experience playing in Mexico City just last season but the Patriots stayed in Denver the entire week preparing for the extreme altitude, more than 7000 feet above sea level.
My ratings favor New England by just 5 points with Oakland having a 1½ points advantage for coming off their bye week, but Tom Brady is an amazing 132-67-7 ATS in his career when the Pats are not favored by 9 points or more, including 5-1 ATS this season (5-0 recently). I’ll pass.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ key injuries will define their performance in this important NFC East divisional game. It looks like linebacker Sean Lee will be out of the lineup on Sunday night. Throughout his career, the Dallas defense is nearly a point per game worse when Lee is not on the field. This season, the difference has been even more drastic, particularly defending the run as the Cowboys surrender only 3.5 yards per rush with Lee and 5.3 ypr without him. The Eagles have the 6th-most efficient rushing offense in my numbers and they have not been hampered much after losing left tackle Jason Peters in week 7. Philadelphia gained 4.5 ypr in the last two games without Peters on the offensive line.
The Cowboys’ most important missing player on the offensive side of the ball would be left tackle Tyron Smith, not Ezekiel Elliott. The Dallas offense is gaining 7.3 yards per play with Smith on the field and just 4.5 yppl without him, which is by far the largest participation impact among tackles this season. With Smith out of the lineup last week, Atlanta’s Adrian Clayborn racked up 6 sacks. Smith is questionable to return Sunday night, and if he does not play, it would be a great matchup for Philadelphia’s Vinny Curry, who ranks 9th in pressures from the right side this season. It looks like plenty of value on the side of the Cowboys but those key injuries will have me on the sidelines on this game. I’ll pass.
Nelly
Denver Broncos - over Cincinnati Bengals
Brock Osweiler wasn't exactly set-up to succeed being handed a struggling Broncos offense and drawing the Eagles and Patriots in the first two games. Not long ago considered the best defense in the league the Broncos have allowed 92 points the past two games, now having lost five in a row. Special teams caused the main issues in the Sunday night loss as the offense was competent. The opportunity to turn the season around is there on the schedule as this team could show some late season life. Cincinnati has faced a very tough group of defenses in the last three road losses and now facing a third straight road game with little to play for. The Bengals had 12 costly penalties last week and saw Vontaze Burfict get ejected. Denver still has an elite run defense going against one of the league's worst rushing teams and Andy Dalton has struggled with the pressure all on him. Denver is still on a 33-9 S/U run at home while the Bengals have just three S/U wins in Denver in the last 18 tries.
Bob Balfe
Ravens -2
Brett Hundley got his first NFL win last week against the Bears because the Packers stuffed the box and took away the run. Green Bay will try to do this today against Baltimore, but the Ravens are a very good running team with explosive runners like Alex Collins. Baltimore might even get Danny Woodhead back today. The Ravens are not a very good passing team, but that could change today against a thin Green Bay Secondary. Green Bay does not have any healthy running backs and Baltimore is great at defending the pass. I just don’t see Hundley being able to move the ball enough to win the game. Hundley when forced to pass is known for his mistakes a decision making. Green Bay is not very good without Aaron Rodgers.
Cardinals +2.5
Tom Savage vs Blaine Gabbert. Who would have predicted this QB matchup when the season began? Savage is not mobile and has very limited skilled players to work with. The Arizona Defense is more than able to shut these guys down. Blaine Gabbert has wheels so the run pass option could give the Texans fits. Houston has not looked good one defense because of injuries and the secondary is getting rocked because of the players on the front 7 filling in for injured players. When a QB has time to throw there isn’t a cornerback in the league that can cover a receiver. I don’t like Houston’s QB situation or their offensive line. Arizona might have a 3rd string QB in the game, but they have the players around him and the defense to get the win today.
Chargers -6.5
Tyrod Taylor is benched for Nathan Peterman. The Bills are one of only a few teams with a winning record in the AFC this year so this decision is in house and there is more to the story that we don’t know about. In the past I would not be alarmed with a QB switch because LeSean McCoy could carry this team. As of today I don’t think McCoy is capable of putting a football team on his back. This is also a thin running attack so if McCoy has to hit the sidelines because of his hamstring there is not even a Mike Tolbert in the lineup to take over. The Chargers have been very unfortunate the last few years. This is a team that has lost so many close games and Phillip Rivers never had a healthy group of skilled players lasting a full season. This Chargers team is pretty healthy and now have a respectable defense. The Chargers are due to a blowout type win. Buffalo has no comradery in their secondary as every single player is from a different city last year. Maybe this is all starting to catch up with what we thought was a great defense.
Raiders +6.5
Mexico City will host this game so right off the bat you will have more Oakland fans as the city itself has a lot more Mexicans than Boston. New England is a team in my opinion that can be beaten. Tom Brady will be missing a few guys on his offensive line including his center which is a big loss. Chris Hogan is out of this game so this becomes a team that obviously is still great with Tom Brady, but has their flaws. On Defense the Patriots are a mess, but have hidden it very well because their coach is a genius. The Raiders are one of the rare teams that actually push the pace and go for big time homerun shots. That is what you have to do against New England. The Patriots are thin at the linebacker position so I believe all of these Oakland weapons and the running game will get their points. This should be a fantastic game. Oakland has a great shot at winning this one.
Eagles -6
The talk of this game will be the suspension of Ezekiel Elliot, but the real issue is Tyron Smith being out on the offensive line and Sean Lee being out at linebacker. These two guys bring so much to their teams that go hidden in the stat sheet. The Eagles are stacked, they are healthy and they are coming for revenge when they blew a big lead the last time they were down here. Dallas is thin in the secondary and can be beaten with the long ball today. I believe the Eagles are going to play smash mouth physical football and prove to the league they are the team to beat. This game today can all but sure up the NFC East title. Dallas is not in a good spot and after last week are starting to trend in the wrong direction.
Chase Diamond
Los Angeles vs. Minnesota
Play: Los Angeles +1.5
This game features the 7-2 Rams at the 7-2 Vikings. I'm not buying Case Keenum or the Vikings running game I think the Rams and Eagles are the two best teams in the NFL and the Vikings will get exposed today. Normally I pass on West Coast teams playing at 1pm but this line has really moved with the action being at 50/50. Grab the Rams while you can still get plus points I think they win this one easy.
Tommy Brunson
The make-up game today between Tampa and Miami after Hurricane Irma, and truth be told, neither team is having the season they were hoping to have, but someone has to win this sucker and right now my "eye test" says that Tampa Bay is the right side today!
With Ryan Fitzpatrick now under center for the ailing and immature Jameis Winston, Tampa was at least able to end their 5-game losing streak last week with a 15-10 win over the Jets. Better still is the fact that the Bucs defense showed some teeth as they sacked Josh McCown 6 times in all.
Miami meanwhile looked competitive for about a quarter in getting blown out under the Monday night lights at Carolina, 45-21. The Dolphins are now on a 3-game losing streak of their own, and are 0-2-2 against the spread in their last 4 games.
Not many positive spread numbers to insert here for either team, as I said, this is an "eye test" as we have hit Week 11 of the season, and it sure looks like Miami coach Adam Gase is cutting bait for next season to me. Sure, Dirk Koetter is not in an ideal position, but I believe Ryan Fitzpatrick has a fire in his belly and I believe he leads the Buccaneers to their second straight win and cover this weekend.
2* TAMPA BAY
Joey Juice
Gotta go with Tampa Bay in this contest vs. a Dolphins defense that has been simply dreadful. The Fish have allowed an average of 35 points in their last four games, and how can you expect much from them offensively when they rank at the bottom of the NFL in all offensive categories. The Dolphins only averaging 15.2 points per game, it's a disgrace.
The Tampa Bay defense on the other hand, has been pretty good lately, they have allowed only 17 points or less in two out of their last three games and they should crush the Dolphins terrible offense.
Let's look inside the numbers, because they show the path to victory for Tampa Bay. The Bucs are always solid against the Dolphins versus the Las Vegas number, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the Dolphins, who are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record.
Tampa Bay is the play.
4* TAMPA BAY
Jack Brayman
Let's keep this 18-5 win streak rolling tonight, as my free play is on the New Orleans Saints laying the points against the visiting Washington Redskins.
I didn't want to believe it, and still don't really. But okay, I'll say it: the Saints are for real this season.
There, I said it.
With the second-best offense in the league, and No. 8 defense, the Saints will take it to Washington today in the Big Easy.
While I know the Redskins are 4-1 versus New Orleans since Sean Payton became coach of the Saints in 2006, this is an entirely different team with an entirely different mindset.
The Saints are going to harass Kirk Cousins, and I think could come up with at least five sacks today. The Saints are also going to rush for 200+ yards, while I think quarterback Drew Brees will throw for 300+ today.
Look for New Orleans to win its eighth game in a row today, against an outmatched Redskins squad.
5* SAINTS
Eric Schroeder
The Oakland Raiders are my free play for Sunday, as we head to Mexico City for my freebie. I think it's safe to say the New England Patriots are probably the better team, but let's not forget when the season started, many thought this game would be a preview for the AFC Championship game.
Where it went wrong for Oakland I'm unsure of, but coach Jack Del Rio is not going to sit idle and let his Raiders get humiliated by the Patsies.
Everyone knows, there are two teams you get up for every time you play them, no matter how good or bad they are, and that's New England and Dallas.
And since the Patriots have the worst defense in the league, this is a great spot for Oakland to sneak in and challenge for an outright win.
A victory by the Raiders brings them to .500 on the year, and keeps them within striking distance of wild-card talk. They have a ways to go, but they're not out of it, either.
Take Oakland.
2* RAIDERS