Power Sports
Colorado St. vs. Florida State
Pick: Florida St -12.5
I like what I've seen so far from the Seminoles as they've won by 20 and 24 points their first two games. They're in Jamaica now where they throttled Fordham Friday, 67-43. The game was never really close as it was 35-18 by halftime. In one of the more ridiculous defensive showings you'll see all year, the 'Noles held the Rams to just 23.1% shooting overall, including 1 for 22 from three-point range!
Colorado State's first experience out on the island was a lot less desirable. They got whipped, 80-53 by Tulane. They trailed 37-14 by halftime. These Rams were just 4 for 21 from distance, which is not a good sign facing this FSU defense. That loss on Friday was really bad when you consider CSU was actually a 3.5-pt favorite.
Florida State has only one starter back from LY, but also returned at least six players that averaged at least 10 minutes per game last season. Colorado State lost two starters from 2016-17 and even when they've won this year, it's hardly been impressive. Their wins were against Sacramento State (didn't cover) and Hampton (by only four). With FSU's first two opponents having shot only 31.3% overall from the field, it will be tough sledding for Colorado State Sunday afternoon. At the same time, the Seminoles have no problem finding easy shots as LY's team led the nation in dunks and this group is well on its way to following suit.
Will Rogers
Jacksonville vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +7.5
The setup: The Browns will suit up once again on Sunday at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, to host the Jacksonville, Jags. The Bowns have followed their 1-15 season of 2016 by opening the 2017 season at 0-9 and remain the lone win-less NFL team. Meanwhile, the Jags have been on of 2017's biggest surprise, as after entering 2017 having failed to win more than five games in any of the previous six seasons, Jacksonville is 6-3 heading into this Week 11 game. A victory over the win-less Browns would give the Jags a 7-3 record and a one-game lead over the 6-4 Tennessee Titans in the AFC South!
Jacksonville: The Jags enter on a three-game winning streak beating the Colts, Bengals and Chargers. In that Chargers game, QB Blake Bortles threw for 273 yards with a TD and two picks. His starting job was on the line in the preseason but Bortles has cut down on his mistakes and while hardly doing anything special, has been adequate up to this point (58.6% with 11 TDs & 7 INTs for an 81.8 QB rating). Jacksonville ranks 24th in passing yards (207.8 YPG) but led by rookie Fournette (629 yards / 4.3 YPC / 6 TDs) when healthy plus a deep RB 'stable' when not, the Jags lead the NFL with 163.0 YPG on the ground. Then there's the Jacksonville defense, which is allowing an NFL-low 14.9 PPG on 285.8 YPG, which ranks second-best. The Jaguars also lead the NFL with 35 sacks
Cleveland: I guess it's fair to ask, how does Hue Jackson (now 1-24 with the Browns) keep his job but is it possible any coach could do much better with this 'mess' in Cleveland? Both QBs, DeShone Kizer and backup Kevin Hogan,appeared on the injury list this week with issues but Kizer is expected to start. However, promising WR Corey Coleman is expected to be activated from the IR after having surgery on a broken bone in his hand. Kizer wasn't bad last week in a 38-24 loss at Detroit, throwing 232 yards with for one TD and one INT. However. Kizer completes just 52.8% with four TD passes and 12 INTs (QB rating is a horrific 54.4!). The offense ransk 31st scoring 15.9 PPG and the defense ranks 30th, allowing 26.7 PPG).
The pick: The Jaguars have beaten some pretty good teams this year and they’re starting to morph into a contender but this is their first three-game winning streak since 2013. Six Jaguars did not practice Wednesday, linebacker Blair Brown (hamstring), wide receiver Marqise Lee (knee), wide receiver Allen Hurns (ankle), left guard Patrick Omaneh, right tackle Jermey Parnell (knee) and defensive end Dawuane Smoot (knee). As for the Browns, the 24 points they scored vs. the Lions were the most they've scored since a 31-28 loss to the Colts at Indianapolis back in Week 3. Also, while Cleveland allows 26.7 PPG (20th), the defense ranks 11th in YPG at 317.0. The Browns got a useful list of bulletin-board fodder during the week when the Jags' Tashaun Gipson said Cleveland will probably go 0-16, the Jaguars will shut them out and that he hopes the offense scores 40 points against them. Take the home dog!
Stephen Nover
Jacksonville vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +7.5
I understand the Browns are snake bit and find ways to not only lose games, but fail to cover spreads.
But I have to take more than a touchdown here with Cleveland. The oddsmaker is projecting a low score and I concur. That means points should be at a premium.
The Browns rank 11th in total defense and fourth in run defense. They have talent on defense. The Jaguars are run-oriented. They could be missing their best runner, rookie Leonard Fournette. He's dealing with an ankle injury.
This is Jacksonville's first cold weather game of the season and first away matchup in four weeks. The Jaguars are in a flat spot, winners of three in a row and now playing the worst team in the NFL. Cleveland is hungry for a victory especially at home.
Rookie DeShone Kizer is coming off his best game. Kizer has derailed the Browns offense with his turnovers. However, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has been a turnover machine, too, during his NFL career. Improvement should continue to come for Kizer as we're into Week 11.
The Jaguars would prefer to grind out a victory without having to trust Bortles especially with a banged-up wide receiving corps. That should ensure a close game. If Bortles throws more than warranted than the Jaguars are going to be in trouble.
Marc Lawrence
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys +4.5
Edges - Cowboys: 5-0 SUATS in division games following a Bye week; and 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS all-time on Sunday nights when seeking revenge… Eagles:NFL road favorites off a 3-game home stand are 4-18-1 ATS consecutive SUATS wins if the last was by 10 or more points… With this being Philadelphia’s first away game in five weeks.
The Real Animal
Kansas City -10
This could really get ugly very quickly. Kansas City has been a perennial regular-season powerhouse for a couple of seasons now. The Chiefs have had two weeks to steam over losing three of their last four although losing to Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Oakland by a single point is far from embarrassing. There's no question in my mind the Giants have quit, raising the flag, crying 'uncle', or whatever else you want to call it. That was extremely evident last week when they surrendered 31 points and 472 yards to the 49ers. Bob has a better chance of retaining the Giants' head coaching job than Ben McAdoo in 2018 right now with apologies to our younger clientele. Plus Alex Smith is a master of not making mistakes (18-1 ratio) so anything the Giants do get on Sunday they are going to have to earn it. The speed of the Chiefs with Hunt and Hill along with the relentless efforts from tight-end Kelce will embarrass a lackluster Big Blue defense. The Giants are dead last in the league with 13 sacks and you giving Smith ample time in the pocket is death wish. The Big Blue is fading at #27 in total offense and #29 in total defense. There season was toast when they lost their top four receivers in the same game five weeks ago. Coach Andy Reid's teams are 16-2 SU/13-5 ATS following a bye week.
Wunderdog
Islanders at Hurricanes
Pick: Under 6
This is the fourth road game in the last five contests for the New York Islanders. It's a tough situational spot for both teams as they played Saturday night. The Islanders have some roster shuffling to sort out with the quick turnaround after right winger Cal Clutterbuck was scratched Saturday because of illness. This is the third time this season Carolina has played back-to-back games, and they slowed the pace down the first two times, winning 3-1 and losing 2-1. The Hurricanes have tightened up their defense, allowing two goals or less in five of the last seven games, up to #11 in the NHL in goals allowed. Carolina is 71-42 UNDER the total when facing a team with a team with a winning percentage between 51-60% in the first half of the season, and this total is too high.