Free Picks for Sunday, November 20th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Strike Point Sports
Detroit (-6.5) over Jacksonville
The Jaguars just make too many mistakes. Yes, Blake Bortles is the king of garbage time points, both on the scoreboard and in fantasy circles, but it won't be enough in Detroit. The Lions are quietly playing some good football. Since October 9 the Lions are 4-1 S.U. with wins over the Eagles, Rams, Redskins, and Vikings. Their only loss was at the Houston Texans in a defensive battle. Detroit should have little difficulty scoring at home versus Jacksonville and the Jags will continue to make mistakes on the offensive side of the football. With Minnesota and Green Bay just not looking that great, the Lions know that each winnable game is one they have to take care of business in. This Division is wide open and the Lions are starting to believe in themselves. Lay the points here as Detroit wins 34-17.
Art Aronson
Titans vs. Colts
Play: Colts -3
The Titans have looked great at times this year and very pedestrian in others. They’ve been alternating wins and losses over the last five games, most recently coming off a very satisfying 47-25 win over the Packers last Sunday. Indianapolis has to be feeling pretty confident here though, it also beat the Packers 31-26 before enjoying its bye last weekend. The Colts have had the Titans “number” over the years and when they met earlier this season, Indy came away with the 34-26 victory. Note that Tennessee is an absolutely horrific 2-12 ATS in its last 14 vs. the division and are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, including only 1-4 ATS this season. And note that Tennessee is an almost perfect 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of November. Consider a second look at the home side in this one.
Alex Smart
Steelers vs. Browns
Play: Browns +8
The Steelers are on a 3 game losing streak, and not looking very good of late, and are fade material here on the road . Note: PITTSBURGH is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and HC Tomlin is 9-18 ATS L/27 against lower tier teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of a ugly record are a team, that's desperate for a victory. Just one win , and than their free to tank, so that they can pick up North Carolina's super star under center Mitch Trubisky a Cleveland native in the draft. I know this one smells like a Norwegian fish market, but please just plug your nose, close your eyes and pull the trigger.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Browns - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 29-9 ATS L/38 opportunities.
Power Sports
Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Buffalo
Even with their already being a mid-week adjustment on this line, the better team is still getting points. While Cincinnati is off a brutal one-point loss Monday night (which may have sunk their season), Buffalo has been waiting in the wings, set to come off its bye week. The Bills are simply better. Take the points.
Buffalo has been somewhat all over the place this season, They opened 0-2 and fired their offensive coordinator. Then, they rattled off a four-game win streak (covering every game) and looked like one of the better teams in the league. Since that time, they've lost three in a row, including a hard-fought game at Seattle two weeks ago. After facing the Patriots and Seahawks in the L2 games, this most definitely is a drop in class for the Bills. Despite the losing record, Rex Ryan's team has actually outscored opponents by 34 points this year.
Cincy is not only at a situational disadvantage here, they are faced w/ the fact that they may very well be a team on the decline. They have just three wins and two of them are at the Browns and Jets' expense. That Browns win is their lone victory since September. They average just 20.8 PPG, so they are not a good candidate to be laying points at this time. There was a time (1989-2010) when they'd lost 10 straight to Buffalo. They've won the L3 meetings, but that streak ends Sunday.
Sleepyj
Teaser - Lions Pk & Seahawks Pk
Needing the Lions and Seahawks just to win at home looks good....I know Seattle might be a bit sluggish, but the offense also week looked great against the Pats...Although I can't stand this Seahawks team, that game and outcome on both sides of the ball is just what they needed...Philly isn't all that great and the offense with a young Carson Wentz will struggle...Philly had some success last week running the ball, so I expect Philly to muck this game up a little bit. The killer for Philly will the the combo of the butter finger WR's...They drop the ball in the most crucial spots..You can't do that in this zoo of a stadium against this defense...Philly will have issue hearing in this place and Wentz has never dealt with a road game like he will see tonight....Philly backend opened up after Carroll went out with a concussion...He might play this week, but the Philly secondary still has issue...Russell Wilson looks far more mobile right now and that alone is key for the Seahawks...It will be a close game for a bit, but in the end the Eagles dropped passes and mistakes will haunt them.
I like this one enough to lay the 6.5, but it very well could be a tad close..Why not just tease the Lions here...Detroit hasn't been bad and a BYE week will do them wonders...Jags just don't have it this year...Another road game for them and asking the Jags to win looks very tough...Detroit has the running game and passing game working well with Stafford..I think they put together a solid scripted game plan to start out the game..Id also consider Lions 1st qtr and 1st half wager as well.
King Creole
Jaguars / Lions Over 47
What a weird week for the Detroit Lions. They didn't even play a game and yet moved into FIRST PLACE in the NFC North with the Vikings and Packers both suffering losses. I know Detroit has been one of our King Creole 'bugaboo' teams (damned if we DO / damned if we DON'T), but I simply can't pass up the fact that Lion HOME games have now gone 20-5 O/U in the last 5 years when the OU line is home favorites of pts (LIONS) have gone 9-1 O/U in the last 5 years vs an AFC SOUTH Division opponent (JAGUARS).
This is a non-conference game (NFC vs AFC) in which the host is almost laying a full touchdown (Det -6.5 to -7 pts).
8-1 O/U since 2010: All GAME NINE or greater NFC home favorites of -6 > points (DET) vs an AFC opponent (JAX) when the OU line is 47 > points.
Prior to their Bye Week, Detroit pulled off a stunning road OVERTIME win against the Vikings.
7-1 O/U since 2011: All NFL teams off a SU division OVERTIME road dog win (LIONS).
Next up for the first-place Kitty Kats is their annual TURKEY DAY home game.
8-1 O/U last 4 years: All home favorites of -5 > points (LIONS) BEFORE a THURSDAY home game.
In last week's game, Jacksonville was a short home favorite vs Houston. They lost outright but it DID go Over.
10-1 O/U L12 months / 5-0 O/U THIS year: All teams off a SU division home FAV loss that went Over the Total (JAGS), with a OU line of 43 > pts.
Buster Sports
Packers at Redskins
Play: Over 49.5
The Green Bay Packers head to Washington for their second road game in a row and they are a desperate team. Aaron Rodgers can do all he wants on offense, but one thing we know is that he can't play defense and the Packers are a mess on that side of the ball. We see Rodgers without any kind of running game throwing it well over 50 times on Sunday. Take a look at the Packers points in the last 3 games. They scored 25, 26, and 32 points respectively. All games were losses. The totals for those games were 72, 57 and 65 respectively. Until we see something different from this Packer club we will keep backing the OVER. With the Redskins ranked 6th in total offense, points will be plenty today. Backing our selection is the fact that the Over is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 home games and the fact that the OVER is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Bryan Leonard
New England at San Francisco
Play: New England -12.5
Not often that we will look to lay double digits on the road in the NFL, but we are making a rare exception here. The Patriots looked terrible last week against Seattle coming out of the bye. While the 49ers normally wouldn't get a great deal of attention from the Patriots, last weeks performance brings out the best of Bill's bunch here.
Despite giving the Cardinals all it could take last week, the 49ers were still outgained 6.0 to 4.6 yards per play. It was a +3 turnover edge that kept the game close. Only once since opening day have the Niners won the ypp battle and even in that game it lost on the screboard by 18 points.
Executive Sports
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Play: Tennessee +3
Tennessee wants to stay in the race for the AFC South Division and get revenge at the same time, as they lost at home to the Colts just 3 weeks ago. Sometimes a proven system in the NFL is hard to pass up ...
Play Against Any team (INDIANAPOLIS) off 1 or more straight overs against opponent off 6 or more consecutive overs...(25-5, 83% over the last 10 seasons.) The situation's record this season is: (1-0). Past 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-1). Past 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Randall the Handle
BEST BETS
Cardinals (4-4-1) at Vikings (5-4)
As bad as the Vikings have been, currently mired in a four-game losing streak, the Cardinals have been worse. We can see Minnesota snapping out of this current slump. The Vikes are home after playing three of past four on the road. They are 3-1 on this field with only loss occurring in overtime to divisional-foe Detroit. The Packers, Giants and Texans all went down on their respective visits here. Minny has had trouble protecting Sam Bradford, but the QB still managed to throw for 307 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s loss to Washington. While the endorsement for Minnesota might appear mild, Arizona’s recent form elevates this host significantly. The Cardinals only road win this season was against dreadful San Francisco. That’s the same 1-8 San Fran club that Arizona barely snuck by 23-20 last week in the rematch. The Cards’ four wins have come against three sub-.500 clubs (Rams, Bucs and the Niners twice). Despite woes, Vikings remain tied atop NFC North. A win here is essential and they should pull it off. TAKING: VIKINGS Even
Bills (4-5) at Bengals (3-5-1)
Having lost three straight, the public might be disenchanted with the Bills, but falling prey to the red-hot Dolphins, Patriots and Seahawks is a fate that many would have succumbed to. Buffalo had won four straight prior to the three-game skid and now they get back to facing a club that is more its speed. Cincinnati can’t seem to get out of its own way. Its offensive line isn’t protecting Andy Dalton nor is it producing running lanes for its ground game. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals rank 24th in both overall yards allowed and rushing yards permitted. That should bode well for talented Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy. We also get that odd scheduling quirk where Cincinnati is on a short week after losing at the Giants on Monday night while Bills rested after regrouping during their bye week. Besides, why would we want to give away points with a team whose only win in its past five games was against the sad-sack Browns? TAKING: BILLS +3
Texans (6-3) vs. Raiders (7-2)
Don’t get fooled by the 6-3 Texans as their record is far superior to their ability. Houston’s offence is about as exciting as a soccer team’s. QB Brock Osweiler has been a bust in his new digs. He currently has a passer rating of 74.1, which ranks higher than only two other quarterbacks being tracked, namely Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blaine Gabbert, both of whom have been benched. Osweiler has just 11 touchdown passes on the year compared to nine interceptions. Scoring just 17.9 points per game, Houston ranks only ahead of the Browns, Rams and Bears. Phooey! Prior to first road win of season at Jacksonville last week, the Texans were outscored 85-22 in three other road defeats. As for the Raiders, they continue to impress. Derek Carr is in the MVP conversation with his 17-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Raiders are strong offensively, getting better defensively and, after a well-earned rest, they should have little trouble disposing of this imposter. TAKING: RAIDERS –5½
THE REST
Titans (5-5) at Colts (4-5)
This is a corner the Titans would love to turn. Not only have the Colts won the previous 10 meetings between these two, but a Tennessee victory here would create a 1½-game gap between the pair while helping the Titans stay in pursuit of division-leading Texans. With Tennessee’s improved offence (82 points in past two games) facing Indianapolis’ questionable defence, there is some hope. However, until we see it happen, we’re not prepared to expect it. The Colts were victorious in Nashville less than a month ago. Indy is home for just the second time in six weeks. They’ve had an extra week to prepare for this one. They know the importance of it as they have a short week coming before facing Steelers. The Titans are shooting for consecutive wins, something they’ve accomplished only once since 2014. Seeing is believing. TAKING: COLTS –3
Jaguars (2-7) at Lions (5-4)
Folks that believe in QB Blake Bortles haven’t seen him play lately. His record as a starter since taking the helm for the Jaguars in 2014 now stands at a dismal 10-28. The only time he seems to accumulate reasonable throwing stats is during cosmetic time when his team is getting smashed. Don’t get us wrong. Jacksonville’s troubles are not restricted to its quarterback. This team can’t run the ball or defend the run. They own a -14 turnover ratio. With coach Gus Bradley on borrowed time, this group remains a rudderless ship. Now they will head to Detroit to take on a rejuvenated Lions’ squad that finds itself atop the NFC North. The rested Leos have won four of past five, led by the stellar play of its quarterback with Matthew Stafford completing 67% of his passes for 18 TDs and only five interceptions. TAKING: LIONS –6
Buccaneers (4-5) at Chiefs (7-2)
Giving away more than a touchdown with these field-goal happy Chiefs isn’t the most pleasing thing to do. But a closer look shows a difference in class here. Maybe Tampa’s 36-10 win last week has inspired some to get behind the Buccaneers for this one. We can’t put much merit into that one as the screwy 2-7 Bears barely showed up. Tampa’s other wins aren’t much either as they included the 1-8 49ers and the 3-6 Panthers with Derek Anderson quarterbacking Carolina on that day. Somewhat surprisingly, Kansas City has lost just three of its past 21 games. They are in a tight race in the ultra-competitive AFC West and can ill afford even the slightest lapse. Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston has experienced many lapses. Despite flashes of brilliance, he is prone to reckless turnovers. His Bucs 0-4 vs. spread against winning teams this year. TAKING: CHIEFS –7½
Bears (2-7) at Giants (6-3)
Chicago teased everyone a couple of Mondays ago with upset win over the Vikings. Jay Cutler returned to the lineup after missing some time and the Bears appeared to be improved. That was short-lived. A clunker last week against the Bucs appears to have taken any fight that was left out of this team. Since that loss, Chicago has seen its best receiver get suspended while its top O-lineman, Kyle Long, has been sidelined for the rest of the year. Bears are already 0-5 against the spread in their previous five road games. They just don’t have the manpower nor the desire to compete. The Giants will be going full throttle as they ride a four-game win streak. This will be New York’s third consecutive home game before traveling for a pair. Even though it’s a big spot here, prefer G-Men’s momentum to Chicago’s downward spiral. TAKING: GIANTS –7½
Ravens (5-4) at Cowboys (8-1)
Both are division leaders at the moment, but the disparity between the two is great. If you’ve seen the Ravens play, you know what we’re talking about. Baltimore lacks offensive playmakers. Their best receiver is 37-year-old Steve Smith Sr. Their No. 1 back is a Cleveland Browns castoff, which explains their 28th-ranked ground game. This is a team that is life-and-death to get to 20 points. Three of Baltimore’s five wins have come against the Jaguars and Browns (x2) and it has yet to defeat a winner. The Cowboys are the only one-loss team in the league with that setback occurring way back in Week 1. Dallas is playing well on both sides of the ball and there is little to believe that the Ravens can keep up. NFC East teams now 9-1 this season vs. teams from crumbling AFC North. TAKING: COWBOYS –7
Steelers (4-5) at Browns (0-10)
The oddsmaker erred on this one. Figuring that no one is interested in the winless Browns, he set this number at Pittsburgh -10 on openers. Oops. The marketplace came charging in on Cleveland despite its woeful ways and the line dropped to where we see it now, Steelers by 7½. While results are never known until the games are played, that movement is a significant condemnation of slumping Pittsburgh and one worth paying attention to. It’s rare to see a team that has lost four straight, like the Steelers have, giving away such substantial points in a divisional road game. Pittsburgh’s only road win this season was opening week vs. Redskins. Since then, 0-3 while being outscored 85-32. Are we all-in with the Browns here? Of course not. Cleveland is barely fielding a pro team, but given the choice, the points seem plausible. TAKING: CLEVELAND +7½
Dolphins (5-4) at Rams (4-5)
This one has an odd stench to it. The Dolphins are on a roll while the Rams have lost four of five with the only win occurring last week when scoring just nine points. So who is backing Los Angeles here? The answer is twofold. Firstly, defensive stats have the Rams with the seventh-best overall numbers at stopping their opponents. The biggest concern is Miami’s run defence which ranks 30th, ahead of only Cleveland and San Francisco. Secondly, is the oddsmaker. When numbers were first released, L.A. was the small favourite. It is the public that has driven the visitor to be spotting points and that carries a red flag with it. The Rams have finally decided to give rookie QB Jared Goff a chance to get his feet wet. He’ll game-manage and hand off often to Todd Gurley. That might just do the trick. TAKING: RAMS +1½
Patriots (7-2) at 49ers (1-8 )
We won’t insult your intelligence by trying to sell you on the merits of the 49ers here. These two are worlds apart as San Francisco is a team under construction and will take some time for it to compete with clubs such as these Patriots. But as tempting as it may be to give these points away, we can’t recommend it either. Double-digit road favourites are a losing proposition. It’s easy to say that this one is different as the difference between the two clubs is so great, but that same principle would apply almost every time this rarity occurs. The Niners showed some spunk in a close loss and cover to the Cardinals last week in the same price range, but that was on the road. Now home, having to stay within two touchdowns is not out of the question. Have to lean that way. TAKING: 49ers +13
Eagles (5-4) at Seahawks (6-2)
This is typically when the Seahawks start gathering steam. It looks more evident than ever after winning in New England on Sunday night and now they’ll return home where they rarely lose, including 4-0 this season. While the Eagles have been a pleasant surprise after undergoing significant off-season changes, this is a tough spot. Philadelphia has just one win in its five road games, that victory occurring in Chicago back in Week 2. Rookie QB Carson Wentz was heralded as the biggest thing to hit Philly since Rocky Balboa, but the youngster has tapered off with just two touchdowns against four interceptions over the Eagles past five games. Seattle is best when Russell Wilson can do his thing and, after spending the early going on a gimpy leg, Wilson appears to be his old self as the offence has scored 31 points in consecutive games. TAKING: SEAHAWKS –6½
Packers (4-5) at Redskins (5-3-1)
OK, Packers, enough is enough. Time to be one of the top NFC teams you were supposed to be. If that is to remotely happen, it must start here. After dropping three straight and surrendering 111 points in the process, there is work to be done. But when you have one of the best quarterbacks in the game going for you, there is always hope. That hope is extended when you get a rare opportunity to take back some points with Green Bay. The Packers have been underdogs just once this season and they were able to cover in a 33-32 nailbiter in Atlanta. Redskins are playing well but they have a history of wetting themselves in primetime, where they have just two wins in past 12 tries. Packers also hammered Washington 35-18 in playoffs last year. The investor’s adage to ‘sell high, buy low’ is very applicable here. TAKING: PACKERS +2½
Rob Vinciletti
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Play: Indianapolis -2½
The Colts are 11-0 to the spread in division games vs a team off a win like the Titans that converted 5 or more first downs. The Titans blasted the Packers at home last week but will have a much tougher time here and they are 0-11 ats off a double digit win. They are 1-12 ats on the road vs the Colts and 2-16 ats if they had a 40+ yard catch in their last game. The Colts have covered 8 of the last 9 November games. Division home favorites of less than 4 are 13-3 off a road dog win vs a team off a home dog win. With the Colts 7-1 ats with rest off a win we will look their way today. P
Brandon Lee
Eagles vs. Seahawks
Play: Under 42½
With both teams coming off huge wins last week, I think we are going to see both come out a bit flat here and that's going to end up leading to a defensive battle between two of the leagues' top defensive teams. Seattle comes in 9th in total defense (Top 10 against both the run and the pass) and Philadelphia is 7th in total defense. On top of that, I think this is a bad matchup for both offenses. Philadelphia's strength defensively is their front 7 and I look for their defensive line to have their way with Seattle's offensive line. At the same time, I think the books is out on Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense. The Seahawks aren't going to let him have a big day on their home turf and Philadelphia offense hasn't been as productive on the road.
Tony George
Bucs vs. Chiefs
Play: Bucs +7½
Kansas City - weakest 7-2 team in the NFL, and they are my hometown team! 26th on offense in total yards, 22nd in Yards allowed on defense and yet still 7-2. A weak schedule and some wild come from behind wins for KC this season, and bear in mind WR Macklin is hampered with injury and is doubtful to play.
Off a grueling game last week against Carolina, another come from behind win puts KC is a bad spot here this week as they are looking to survive this one injury free as they have a huge rival AFC West Game on deck with Denver, followed by Falcons and Raiders. Last game at home they were badly out-stated by the Jags and actually should have lost that game and failed to cover the 7 in that one, and KC just 1-6 ATS last 7 at Arrowhead. Bucs off a shut defensive down game against the Bears, and scored 36. KC Wins, Bucs cover.
Scott Spreitzer
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Play: Ravens +7½
The Cowboys have passed all tests since week-2, including last week's 35-30 win over Pittsburgh, scoring the game winning TD with just seconds left in the contest. But while Baltimore may only be 5-4 SU, they own the NFL's stingiest defense, outstanding against both the run and the pass. The Ravens have enjoyed their matchups with rookie QBs, winning each of their last five against first-year signal callers. It's tough to find fault with Dak Prescott, but this will be his toughest test yet. Prescott has faced just one defense currently ranked in the top-9 this season and he did struggle, connecting on just 19 of 39 passes with 2 TDs and 1 INT in a 29-23 OT win over the Eagles. We note that according to Statfox, under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 14-4 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that connect on at least 64% of their passes. The Ravens understand how to devise game plans against the passing game. We expect Baltimore to keep this one close to the very end.